Botswana Combination Prevention Project Research Articles

High Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Drug Resistance Mutations to Lamivudine among People with HIV/HBV Coinfection in Rural and Peri-Urban Communities in Botswana.

(1) Background: We aimed to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) in people with HBV and human immunodeficiency virus (HBV/HIV) in Botswana. (2) Methods: We sequenced HBV deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) from participants with HBV/HIV from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project study (2013-2018) using the Oxford Nanopore GridION platform. Consensus sequences were analyzed for genotypic and mutational profiles. (3) Results: Overall, 98 HBV sequences had evaluable reverse transcriptase region coverage. The median participant age was 43 years (IQR: 37, 49) and 66/98 (67.4%) were female. Most participants, i.e., 86/98 (87.8%) had suppressed HIV viral load (VL). HBV RAMs were identified in 61/98 (62.2%) participants. Most RAMs were in positions 204 (60.3%), 180 (50.5%), and 173 (33.3%), mostly associated with lamivudine resistance. The triple mutations rtM204V/L180M/V173L were the most predominant (17/61 [27.9%]). Most participants (96.7%) with RAMs were on antiretroviral therapy for a median duration of 7.5 years (IQR: 4.8, 10.5). Approximately 27.9% (17/61) of participants with RAMs had undetectable HBV VL, 50.8% (31/61) had VL < 2000 IU/mL, and 13/61 (21.3%) had VL ≥ 2000 IU/mL. (4) Conclusions: The high prevalence of lamivudine RAMs discourages the use of ART regimens with 3TC as the only HBV-active drug in people with HIV/HBV.

Multiply robust generalized estimating equations for cluster randomized trials with missing outcomes.

Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) provide a useful framework for estimating marginal regression parameters based on data from cluster randomized trials (CRTs), but they can result in inaccurate parameter estimates when some outcomes are informatively missing. Existing techniques to handle missing outcomes in CRTs rely on correct specification of a propensity score model, a covariate-conditional mean outcome model, or require at least one of these two models to be correct, which can be challenging in practice. In this article, we develop new weighted GEEs to simultaneously estimate the marginal mean, scale, and correlation parameters in CRTs with missing outcomes, allowing for multiple propensity score models and multiple covariate-conditional mean models to be specified. The resulting estimators are consistent provided that any one of these models is correct. An iterative algorithm is provided for implementing this more robust estimator and practical considerations for specifying multiple models are discussed. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through Monte Carlo simulations and apply the proposed multiply robust estimator to analyze the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, a large HIV prevention CRT designed to evaluate whether a combination of HIV-prevention measures can reduce HIV incidence.

HIV-1C in-House RNA-Based Genotyping Assay for Detection of Drug Resistance Mutations in Samples with Low-Level Viral Loads.

Monitoring HIV-1 drug resistance mutations (DRM) in treated patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) with a detectable HIV-1 viral load (VL) is important for the selection of appropriate cART. Currently, there is limited data on HIV DRM at low-level viremia (LLV) (VL 401-999 copies/mL) due to the use of a threshold of VL ≥1000 copies/mL for HIV DRM testing. We here assess the performance of an in-house HIV drug resistance genotyping assay using plasma for the detection of DRM at LLV. We used a total of 96 HIV plasma samples from the population-based Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP). The samples were stratified by VL groups: 50 samples had LLV, defined as 401-999 copies/mL, and 46 had ≥1000 copies/mL. HIV pol (PR and RT) region was amplified and sequenced using an in-house genotyping assay with BigDye sequencing chemistry. Known HIV DRMs were identified using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database. Genotyping success rate between the two groups was estimated and compared using the comparison of proportions test. The overall genotyping success rate was 79% (76/96). For VL groups, the genotyping success was 72% (36/50) at LLV and 87% (40/46) at VL ≥1000 copies/mL. Among generated sequences, the overall prevalence of individuals with at least 1 major or intermediate-associated DRM was 24% (18/76). The proportions of NNRTI-, NRTI- and PI-associated resistance mutations were 28%, 24%, and 0%, respectively. The most predominant mutations detected were K103N (18%) and M184V (12%) in NNRTI- and NRTI-associated mutations, respectively. The prevalence of DRM was 17% (6/36) at LLV and 30% (12/40) at VL ≥1000 copies/mL. The in-house HIV genotyping assay successfully genotyped 72% of LLV samples and was able to detect 17% of DRM amongst them. Our results highlight the possibility and clinical significance of genotyping HIV among individuals with LLV.

Accuracy of point-of-care HIV and CD4 field testing by lay healthcare workers in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project

Accurate HIV and CD4 testing are critical in program implementation, with HIV misdiagnosis having serious consequences at both the client and/or community level. We implemented a comprehensive training and Quality Assurance (QA) program to ensure accuracy of point-of-care HIV and CD4 count testing by lay counsellors during the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP). We compared the performance of field testing by lay counsellors to results from an accredited laboratory to ascertain accuracy of testing. All trained lay counsellors passed competency assessments and performed satisfactorily in proficiency testing panel evaluations in 2013, 2014, and 2015. There was excellent agreement (99.6 %) between field and laboratory-based HIV test results; of the 3002 samples tested, 960 and 2030 were concordantly positive and negative respectively, with 12 misclassifications (kappa score 0.99, p < 0.0001). Of the 149 HIV-positive samples enumerated for CD4 count in the field using PIMA at a threshold of ≤ 350 cells/µl; there was 86 % agreement with laboratory testing, with only 21 misclassified. The mean difference between field and lab CD4 testing was − 16.16 cells/µl (95 % CI −5.4 to 26.9). Overall, there was excellent agreement between field and laboratory results for both HIV rapid test and PIMA CD4 results. A standard training package to train lay counsellors to accurately perform HIV and CD4 point-of-care testing in field settings was feasible, with point-of-care results obtained by lay counsellors comparable to laboratory-based testing.

Marginal proportional hazards models for clustered interval-censored data with time-dependent covariates.

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project was a cluster-randomized HIV prevention trial whose follow-up period coincided with Botswana's national adoption of a universal test and treat strategy for HIV management. Of interest is whether, and to what extent, this change in policy modified the preventative effects of the study intervention. To address such questions, we adopt a stratified proportional hazards model for clustered interval-censored data with time-dependent covariates and develop a composite expectation maximization algorithm that facilitates estimation of model parameters without placing parametric assumptions on either the baseline hazard functions or the within-cluster dependence structure. We show that the resulting estimators for the regression parameters are consistent and asymptotically normal. We also propose and provide theoretical justification for the use of the profile composite likelihood function to construct a robust sandwich estimator for the variance. We characterize the finite-sample performance and robustness of these estimators through extensive simulation studies. Finally, we conclude by applying this stratified proportional hazards model to a re-analysis of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, with the national adoption of a universal test and treat strategy now modeled as a time-dependentcovariate.

HIV Incidence in Botswana Rural Communities With High Antiretroviral Treatment Coverage: Results From the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 2013-2017.

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project demonstrated a 30% reduction in community HIV incidence through expanded HIV testing, enhanced linkage to care, and universal antiretroviral treatment and exceeded the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets. We report rates and characteristics of incident HIV infections. The Botswana Combination Prevention Project was a community-randomized controlled trial conducted in 30 rural/periurban Botswana communities from 2013 to 2017. Home-based and mobile HIV-testing campaigns were conducted in 15 intervention communities, with 39% of participants testing at least twice. We assessed the HIV incidence rate [IR; number of new HIV infections per 100 person-years (py) at risk] among repeat testers and risk factors with a Cox proportional hazards regression model. During 27,517 py, 195 (women: 79%) of 18,597 became HIV-infected (0.71/100 py). Women had a higher IR (1.01/100 py; 95% confidence interval: 0.99 to 1.02) than men (0.34/100 py; 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 0.35). The highest IRs were among women aged 16-24 years (1.87/100 py) and men aged 25-34 years (0.56/100 py). The lowest IRs were among those aged 35-64 years (women: 0.41/100 py; men: 0.20/100 py). The hazard of incident infection was the highest among women aged 16-24 years (hazard ratio = 7.05). Sex and age were significantly associated with incidence (both P < 0.0001). Despite an overall reduction in HIV incidence and approaching the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets, high HIV incidence was observed in adolescent girls and young women. These findings highlight the need for additional prevention services (pre-exposure prophylaxis and DREAMS) to achieve epidemic control in this subpopulation and increased efforts with men with undiagnosed HIV.

Epidemiological and viral characteristics of undiagnosed HIV infections in Botswana

BackgroundHIV-1 is endemic in Botswana. The country’s primary challenge is identifying people living with HIV who are unaware of their status. We evaluated factors associated with undiagnosed HIV infection using HIV-1 phylogenetic, behavioural, and demographic data.MethodsAs part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 20% of households in 30 villages were tested for HIV and followed from 2013 to 2018. A total of 12,610 participants were enrolled, 3596 tested HIV-positive at enrolment, and 147 participants acquired HIV during the trial. Extensive socio-demographic and behavioural data were collected from participants and next-generation sequences were generated for HIV-positive cases. We compared three groups of participants: (1) those previously known to be HIV-positive at enrolment (n = 2995); (2) those newly diagnosed at enrolment (n = 601) and (3) those who tested HIV-negative at enrolment but tested HIV-positive during follow-up (n = 147). We searched for differences in demographic and behavioural factors between known and newly diagnosed group using logistic regression. We also compared the topology of each group in HIV-1 phylogenies and used a genetic diversity-based algorithm to classify infections as recent (< 1 year) or chronic (≥ 1 year).ResultsBeing male (aOR = 2.23) and younger than 35 years old (aOR = 8.08) was associated with undiagnosed HIV infection (p < 0.001), as was inconsistent condom use (aOR = 1.76). Women were more likely to have undiagnosed infections if they were married, educated, and tested frequently. For men, being divorced increased their risk. The genetic diversity-based algorithm classified most incident infections as recent (75.0%), but almost none of known infections (2.0%). The estimated proportion of recent infections among new diagnoses was 37.0% (p < 0.001).ConclusionOur results indicate that those with undiagnosed infections are likely to be young men and women who do not use condoms consistently. Among women, several factors were predictive: being married, educated, and testing frequently increased risk. Men at risk were more difficult to delineate. A sizeable proportion of undiagnosed infections were recent based on a genetic diversity-based classifier. In the era of “test and treat all”, pre-exposure prophylaxis may be prioritized towards individuals who self-identify or who can be identified using these predictors in order to halt onward transmission in time.

Doravirine-associated resistance mutations in antiretroviral therapy naïve and experienced adults with HIV-1 subtype C infection in Botswana

There are limited data on the prevalence of doravirine (DOR)-associated drug resistance mutations in people with HIV (PWH) in Botswana. This cross-sectional, retrospective study aimed to explore the prevalence of DOR-associated resistance mutations among ART-naïve and -experienced PWH in Botswana enrolled in the population-based Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP). A total of 6078 HIV-1C pol sequences were analysed for DOR-associated resistance mutations using the Stanford HIV drug resistance database, and their levels were predicted according to the Stanford DRM penalty scores and resistance interpretation. Virologic failure was defined as HIV-1 RNA load (VL) >400 copies/mL. Among 6078 PWH, 5999 (99%) had known ART status, and 4529/5999 (79%) were on ART at time of sampling. The suppression rate among ART-experienced was 4517/4729 (96%). The overall prevalence of any DOR-associated resistance mutations was 181/1473 (12.3% [95% confidence interval {CI}: 10.7-14.1]); by ART status: 42/212 (19.8% [95% CI: 14.7-25.4]) among ART-failing individuals (VL ≥400 copies/mL) and 139/1261 (11.0% [95% CI: 9.3-12.9]) among ART-naïve individuals (P < 0.01). Intermediate DOR-associated resistance mutations were observed in 106/1261 (7.8% [95% CI: 6.9-10.1]) in ART-naïve individuals and 29/212 (13.7% [95% CI: 9.4-8.5]) among ART-experienced participants (P < 0.01). High-level DOR-associated resistance mutations were observed in 33/1261 (2.6% [95% CI: 1.8-3.7]) among ART-naïve and 13/212 (6.1% [95% CI: 3.6-10.8]) among ART-failing PWH (P < 0.01). PWH failing ART with at least one EFV/NVP-associated resistance mutation had high prevalence 13/67 (19.4%) of high-level DOR-associated resistance mutations. DOR-associated mutations were rare (11.0%) among ART-naive PWH but present in 62.7% of Botswana individuals who failed NNRTI-based ART with at least one EFV/NVP-associated resistance mutation. Testing for HIV drug resistance should underpin the use of DOR in PWH who have taken first-generation NNRTIs.

Male circumcision uptake during the Botswana Combination Prevention Project.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) uptake has been slow in some countries, including Botswana. To inform demand creation efforts, we examined sociodemographic characteristics and referral procedures associated with VMMC uptake in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) and examined the effectiveness of referral of men to MC services from HIV testing venues. BCPP was a community-randomized trial evaluating the impact of a combination HIV prevention package which included VMMC on community HIV incidence. We conducted a sub-analysis of VMMC uptake in intervention communities. During the initial VMMC campaign in 15 intervention communities, baseline male circumcision (MC) status was assessed among men eligible for HIV testing. Uncircumcised male community residents aged 16-49 years with negative/unknown HIV status were mobilized and linked to study VMMC services. Outcomes included MC baseline status and uptake through study services. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify factors associated with MC uptake. Of 12,864 men eligible for testing, 50% (n = 6,448) were already circumcised. Among the uncircumcised men (n = 6,416), 10% (n = 635) underwent MC. Of the 5,071 men identified as eligible for MC through HIV testing services, 78% declined referral and less than 1% of those were circumcised. Of those accepting referral (n = 1,107), 16% were circumcised. Younger (16-24 years) (aOR: 1.51; 95%CI:1.22,1.85), unemployed men (aOR:1.34; 95%CI: 1.06,1.69), and those undergoing HIV testing at mobile venues (aOR: 1.88; 95%CI: 1.53,2.31) were more likely to get circumcised. Fear of pain was the most prevalent (27%) reason given for not being circumcised. Younger, unemployed men seeking HIV testing at mobile sites in Botswana were more likely to get VMMC. Addressing unique barriers for employed and older men may be necessary. Given the simplicity of VMMC as an intervention, the HIV testing programs offer a platform for identifying uncircumcised men and offering information and encouragement to access services.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing, Linkage, and Early Antiretroviral Treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project.

Background:The Botswana Combination Prevention Project tested the impact of combination prevention (CP) on HIV incidence in a community-randomized trial. Each trial arm had ~55,000 people, 26% HIV prevalence, and 72% baseline ART coverage. Results showed intensive testing and linkage campaigns, expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART), and voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) referrals increased coverage and decreased incidence over ~29 months follow-up. We projected lifetime clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of CP in this population.Setting:Rural and peri-urban communities in Botswana.Methods:We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model to estimate lifetime health impact and cost of 1) earlier ART initiation, and 2) averting an HIV infection, which we applied to incremental ART initiations and averted infections calculated from trial data. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, US$/QALY) for CP vs. standard of care.Results:In CP, 1,418 additional people with HIV initiated ART and an additional 304 infections were averted. For each additional person started on ART, life expectancy increased 0.90 QALYs and care costs increased by $869. For each infection averted, life expectancy increased 2.43 QALYs with $9,200 in care costs saved. With CP, an additional $1.7 million were spent on prevention and $1.2 million on earlier treatment. These costs were mostly offset by decreased care costs from averted infections, resulting in an ICER of $79 per QALY.Conclusions:Enhanced HIV testing, linkage, and early ART initiation improves life expectancy, reduces transmission, and can be cost-effective or cost-saving in settings like Botswana.

HIV-1 drug resistance mutations among individuals with low-level viraemia while taking combination ART in Botswana.

To assess whether a single instance of low-level viraemia (LLV) is associated with the presence of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and predicts subsequent virological failure (VF) in adults receiving ART in 30 communities participating in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project. A total of 6078 HIV-1 C pol sequences were generated and analysed using the Stanford HIV drug resistance database. LLV was defined as plasma VL = 51-999 copies/mL and VF was defined as plasma VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL. Among 6078 people with HIV (PWH), 4443 (73%) were on ART for at least 6 months. Of the 332 persons on ART with VL > 50 copies/mL, 175 (4%) had VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL and 157 (4%) had LLV at baseline. The prevalence of any DRM was 57 (36%) and 78 (45%) in persons with LLV and VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL, respectively. Major DRMs were found in 31 (20%) with LLV and 53 (30%) with VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL (P = 0.04). Among the 135 PWH with at least one DRM, 17% had NRTI-, 35% NNRTI-, 6% PI- and 3% INSTI-associated mutations. Among the 3596 participants who were followed up, 1709 (48%) were on ART for ≥6 months at entry and had at least one subsequent VL measurement (median 29 months), 43 (3%) of whom had LLV. The OR of experiencing VF in persons with LLV at entry was 36-fold higher than in the virally suppressed group. A single LLV measurement while on ART strongly predicted the risk of future VF, suggesting the use of VL > 50 copies/mL as an indication for more intensive adherence support with more frequent VL monitoring.

To achieve 95-95-95 targets we must reach men and youth: High level of knowledge of HIV status, ART coverage, and viral suppression in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project through universal test and treat approach.

BackgroundIncreasing HIV treatment coverage is crucial to reducing population-level HIV incidence.MethodsThe Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) was a community randomized trial examining the impact of multiple prevention interventions on population-level HIV incidence and was conducted from October 2013 through June 2017. Home and mobile campaigns offered HIV testing to all individuals ≥ age 16. All identified HIV-positive persons who were not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) were referred to treatment and tracked to determine linkage to care, ART status, retention in treatment, and viral suppressionResultsOf an estimated total of 14,270 people living with HIV (PLHIV) residing in the 15 intervention communities, BCPP identified 13,328 HIV-positive persons (93%). At study start, 10,703 (80%) of estimated PLHIV knew their status; 2,625 (20%) learned their status during BCPP, a 25% increase with the greatest increases occurring among men (37%) and youth (77%). At study start, 9,258 (65%) of estimated PLHIV were on ART. An additional 3,001 persons started ART through the study. By study end, 12,259 had initiated and were retained on ART, increasing coverage to 93%. A greater increase in ART coverage was achieved among men (40%) compared to women (29%). Of the 11,954 persons who had viral load (VL) test results, 11,687 (98%) were virally suppressed (HIV-1 RNA ≤400 copies/mL). Overall, 82% had documented VL suppression by study end.ConclusionsKnowledge of HIV-positive status and ART coverage increased towards 95–95 targets with universal testing, linkage interventions, and ART. The increases in HIV testing and ART use among men and youth were essential to reaching these targets.Clinical trial numberNCT01965470.

Finding, treating and retaining persons with HIV in a high HIV prevalence and high treatment coverage country: Results from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project.

IntroductionThe scale-up of Universal Test and Treat has resulted in reductions in HIV morbidity, mortality and incidence. However, healthcare system and personal challenges have impacted the levels of treatment coverage achieved. We implemented interventions to improve linkage to care, retention, viral load (VL) coverage and service delivery, and describe the HIV care cascade over the course of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) study.MethodsBCPP was designed to evaluate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in 30 communities in Botswana. We followed a longitudinal cohort of newly identified and known HIV-positive persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified through community-based testing activities through BCPP and referred with appointments to local HIV clinics in 15 intervention communities. Those who did not keep the first or follow-up appointments were tracked and traced through phone and home contacts. Improvements to service delivery models in the intervention clinics were also implemented.ResultsA total of 3,657 newly identified or HIV-positive persons not on ART were identified and referred to their local HIV clinic; 90% (3,282/3,657) linked to care and of those, 93% (3,066/3,282) initiated treatment. Near the end of the study, 221 persons remained >90 days late for appointments or missing. Tracing efforts identified 54/3,066 (2%) persons who initiated treatment but died, and 106/3,066 (3%) persons were located and returned to treatment. At study end, 61/3,066 (2%) persons remained missing and were never reached. Overall, 2,951 (98%) persons living with HIV (PLHIV) who initiated treatment were still alive, retained in care and still receiving ART out of the 3,001 persons alive at the end of the study. Of those on ART, 2,854 (97%) had current VL results and 2,784 (98%) of those were virally suppressed at study end.ConclusionsThis study achieved high rates of linkage, treatment initiation, retention and VL coverage and suppression in a cohort of newly identified and known PLHIV not on ART. Tracking and tracing interventions effectively identified those persons who needed more resource intensive follow-up. The interventions implemented to improve service delivery and data quality may have also contributed to high linkage and retention rates.Clinical trial number: NCT01965470.

Efficient estimation of human immunodeficiency virus incidence rate using a pooled cross-sectional cohort study design.

Development of methods to accurately estimate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence rate remains a challenge. Ideally, one would follow a random sample of HIV-negative individuals under a longitudinal study design and identify incident cases as they arise. Such designs can be prohibitively resource intensive and therefore alternative designs may be preferable. We propose such a simple, less resource-intensive study design and develop a weighted log likelihood approach which simultaneously accounts for selection bias and outcome misclassification error. The design is based on a cross-sectional survey which queries individuals' time since last HIV-negative test, validates their test results with formal documentation whenever possible, and tests all persons who do not have documentation of being HIV-positive. To gain efficiency, we update the weighted log likelihood function with potentially misclassified self-reports from individuals who could not produce documentation of a prior HIV-negative test and investigate large sample properties of validated sub-sample only versus pooled sample estimators through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate our method by estimating incidence rate for individuals who tested HIV-negative within 1.5 and 5 years prior to Botswana Combination Prevention Project enrolment. This article establishes that accurate estimates of HIV incidence rate can be obtained from individuals' history of testing in a cross-sectional cohort study design by appropriately accounting for selection bias and misclassification error. Moreover, this approach is notably less resource-intensive compared to longitudinal and laboratory-based methods.

Implementation of Universal HIV Testing and Treatment to Reduce HIV Incidence in Botswana: the Ya Tsie Study.

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) can dramatically reduce the risk of HIV transmission, but the feasibility of scaling up HIV testing, linkage and treatment to very high population levels, and its impact on population HIV incidence, were unknown. We review key findings from a community-randomized trial in which we evaluated the impact of "universal test and treat" (UTT) on population HIV incidence in Botswana, a resource-constrained country with both high HIV prevalence and high ART coverage before study inception. We conducted a community-randomized trial (the "Ya Tsie" trial or Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP)) in 30 villages in Botswana from 2013 to 2018, with the goal of determining whether a combination of prevention interventions-with a focus on universal HIV testing and treatment-would reduce population-level HIV incidence. The intervention included universal HIV testing (home-based and mobile), active linkage to HIV care and treatment with patient tracing for persons not linking, universal ART coverage, rapid ART start (at the first clinic visit), and enhanced male circumcision services. Botswana had very high HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression levels (approaching the UNAIDS "90-90-90" targets) prior to intervention roll-out. By study end, we were able to exceed the overall 95-95-95 coverage target of 86%: an estimated 88% of all persons living with HIV were on ART and had viral suppression in the Ya Tsie intervention arm. In addition, annual HIV incidence was 30% lower in the intervention arm as compared with the control arm over a 29-month follow-up period. With universal HIV testing and relatively simple linkage activities, it was possible to achieve one of the highest reported population levels of HIV diagnosis, linkage to care, and viral suppression globally and to reduce population HIV incidence by about one-third over a short period of time (< 3years). We were able to significantly increase population viral suppression and to decrease HIV incidence even in a resource-constrained setting with pre-existing very high testing and treatment coverage. Universal community-based HIV testing and tracing of individuals through the HIV care cascade were key intervention components.

Rapid antiretroviral therapy initiation in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project: a quasi-experimental before and after study

Ensuring that individuals who are living with HIV rapidly initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) is an essential step in meeting the 90-90-90 targets. We evaluated the feasibility and outcomes of rapid ART initiation in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP). We aimed to establish whether simplified ART initiation with the offer of same-day treatment could increase uptake and reduce time from clinic linkage to treatment initiation, while maintaining rates of retention in care and viral suppression. We did a quasi-experimental before and after study with use of data from the BCPP. The BCPP was a community-randomised HIV-prevention trial done in 30 communities across Botswana from Oct 1, 2013, to June 30, 2018. Participants in the 15 intervention clusters, who were HIV-positive and not already taking ART were offered universal HIV-treatment and same-day ART with a dolutegravir-based regimen at first clinic visit. This rapid ART intervention was implemented mid-way through the trial on June 1, 2016, enabling us to determine the effect of rapid ART guidelines on time to ART initiation and rates of retention in care and viral suppression at 1 year in the BCPP intervention group. We assessed 1717 adults linked to study clinics before rapid ART introduction and 800 after rapid ART introduction. During the rapid ART period, 457 (57·1%, 95% CI 53·7-60·6) individuals initiated ART within 1 day of linkage, 589 (73·7%, 70·6-76·7) of 799 within 1 week, 678 (84·9%, 82·4-87·3) of 799 within 1 month, and 744 (93·5%, 91·6-95·1) of 796 within 1 year. Before the introduction of rapid ART, 163 (9·5%, 95% CI 8·2-11·0) individuals initiated ART within 1 day of linkage, 276 (16·1%, 14·4-17·9) within 1 week, 839 (48·9%, 46·5-51·3) within 1 month, and 1532 (89·2%, 87·7-90·6) within 1 year. 1 year after ART initiation, 1472 (90·5%, 87·4-92·8) of 1627 individuals who linked in the standard ART period were in care and had a viral load of less than 400 copies per mL, compared with 578 (91·6%, 88·1-94·1) of 631 in the rapid ART period (risk ratio 1·01, 95% CI 0·92-1·11). Our findings provide support for the WHO recommendations for rapid ART initiation, and add to the accumulating evidence showing the feasibility, acceptability, and safety of rapid ART initiation in low-income and middle-income country settings. US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Advanced HIV disease in the Botswana combination prevention project: prevalence, risk factors, and outcomes.

To determine the proportion of individuals linking to HIV-care with advanced HIV-disease (CD4 cell counts ≤200 cells/μl) in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, describe the characteristics of these individuals, and examine treatment outcomes. A subanalysis of a cluster-randomized HIV-prevention trial. HIV status was assessed in 16-64-year-olds through home and mobile testing. All HIV-positive persons not on antiretroviral therapy were referred to local Ministry of Health and Wellness clinics for treatment. Analysis was restricted to the 15 intervention clusters. The proportion of individuals with advanced HIV disease was determined; associations between advanced HIV disease and sex and age explored; and rates of viral suppression determined at 1-year. Mortality and retention in care were compared between CD4 strata (CD4 cell counts ≤200 vs. >200 cells/μl). Overall, 17.2% [430/2499; 95% confidence interval (CI) 15.7-18.8%] of study participants had advanced HIV disease (CD4 cell counts ≤200 cells/μl) at time of clinic linkage. Men were significantly more likely to present with CD4 cell counts 200 cells/μl or less than women [23.7 vs. 13.4%, adjusted odds ratio 1.9, 95% CI 1.5-2.3]. The risk of advanced HIV disease increased with increasing age (adjusted odds ratio 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.2 >35 vs. <25 years). Patients with CD4 cell counts 200 cells/μl or less had significantly higher rates of attrition from care during follow-up (hazards ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.1-2.1). Advanced HIV disease due to late presentation to or disengagement from antiretroviral therapy care remains common in the Treat All era in Botswana, calling for innovative testing, linkage, and treatment strategies to engage and retain harder-to-reach populations in care.

Mapping of HIV-1C Transmission Networks Reveals Extensive Spread of Viral Lineages Across Villages in Botswana Treatment-as-Prevention Trial.

Phylogenetic mapping of HIV-1 lineages circulating across defined geographical locations is promising for better understanding HIV transmission networks to design optimal prevention interventions. We obtained near full-length HIV-1 genome sequences from people living with HIV (PLWH), including participants on antiretroviral treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, conducted in 30 Botswana communities in 2013-2018. Phylogenetic relationships among viral sequences were estimated by maximum likelihood. We obtained 6078 near full-length HIV-1C genome sequences from 6075 PLWH. We identified 984 phylogenetically distinct HIV-1 lineages (molecular HIV clusters) circulating in Botswana by mid-2018, with 2-27 members per cluster. Of these, dyads accounted for 62%, approximately 32% (n = 316) were found in single communities, and 68% (n = 668) were spread across multiple communities. Men in clusters were approximately 3 years older than women (median age 42 years, vs 39 years; P < .0001). In 65% of clusters, men were older than women, while in 35% of clusters women were older than men. The majority of identified viral lineages were spread across multiple communities. A large number of circulating phylogenetically distinct HIV-1C lineages (molecular HIV clusters) suggests highly diversified HIV transmission networks across Botswana communities by 2018.

Population uptake of HIV testing, treatment, viral suppression, and male circumcision following a community-based intervention in Botswana (Ya Tsie/BCPP): a cluster-randomised trial

In settings with high HIV prevalence and treatment coverage, such as Botswana, it is unknown whether uptake of HIV prevention and treatment interventions can be increased further. We sought to determine whether a community-based intervention to identify and rapidly treat people living with HIV, and support male circumcision could increase population levels of HIV diagnosis, treatment, viral suppression, and male circumcision in Botswana. The Ya Tsie Botswana Combination Prevention Project study was a pair-matched cluster-randomised trial done in 30 communities across Botswana done from Oct 30, 2013, to June 30, 2018. 15 communities were randomly assigned to receive HIV prevention and treatment interventions, including enhanced HIV testing, earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART), and strengthened male circumcision services, and 15 received standard of care. The first primary endpoint of HIV incidence has already been reported. In this Article, we report findings for the second primary endpoint of population uptake of HIV prevention services, as measured by proportion of people known to be HIV-positive or tested HIV-negative in the preceding 12 months; proportion of people living with HIV diagnosed and on ART; proportion of people living with HIV on ART with viral suppression; and proportion of HIV-negative men circumcised. A longitudinal cohort of residents aged 16-64 years from a random, approximately 20% sample of households across the 15 communities was enrolled to assess baseline uptake of study outcomes; we also administered an end-of-study survey to all residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort to provide study end coverage estimates. Differences in intervention uptake over time by randomisation group were tested via paired Student's t test. The study has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01965470). In the six communities participating in the end-of-study survey, 2625 residents (n=1304 from standard-of-care communities, n=1321 from intervention communities) were enrolled into the 20% longitudinal cohort at baseline from Oct 30, 2013, to Nov 24, 2015. In the same communities, 10 791 (86%) of 12 489 eligible enumerated residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort participated in the end-of-study survey from March 30, 2017, to Feb 25, 2018 (5896 in intervention and 4895 in standard-of-care communities). At study end, in intervention communities, 1228 people living with HIV (91% of 1353) were on ART; 1166 people living with HIV (88% of 1321 with available viral load) were virally suppressed, and 673 HIV-negative men (40% of 1673) were circumcised in intervention communities. After accounting for baseline differences, at study end the proportion of people living with HIV who were diagnosed was significantly higher in intervention communities (absolute increase of 9% to 93%) compared with standard-of-care communities (absolute increase of 2% to 88%; prevalence ratio [PR] 1·08 [95% CI 1·02-1·14], p=0·032). Population levels of ART, viral suppression, and male circumcision increased from baseline in both groups, with greater increases in intervention communities (ART PR 1·12 [95% CI 1·07-1·17], p=0·018; viral suppression 1·13 [1·09-1·17], p=0·017; male circumcision 1·26 [1·17-1·35], p=0·029). It is possible to achieve very high population levels of HIV testing and treatment in a high-prevalence setting. Maintaining these coverage levels over the next decade could substantially reduce HIV transmission and potentially eliminate the epidemic in these areas. US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Randomization-based confidence intervals for cluster randomized trials.

In a cluster randomized trial (CRT), groups of people are randomly assigned to different interventions. Existing parametric and semiparametric methods for CRTs rely on distributional assumptions or a large number of clusters to maintain nominal confidence interval (CI) coverage. Randomization-based inference is an alternative approach that is distribution-free and does not require a large number of clusters to be valid. Although it is well-known that a CI can be obtained by inverting a randomization test, this requires testing a non-zero null hypothesis, which is challenging with non-continuous and survival outcomes. In this article, we propose a general method for randomization-based CIs using individual-level data from a CRT. This approach accommodates various outcome types, can account for design features such as matching or stratification, and employs a computationally efficient algorithm. We evaluate this method's performance through simulations and apply it to the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, a large HIV prevention trial with an interval-censored time-to-event outcome.