Borehole Temperature Profiles Research Articles

Holocene climate variability in Slovenia: A review

The Slovenian climate has undergone significant fluctuations, and an understanding of the past climate is necessary to improve models and recognise long-term patterns. The cryosphere environment, such as ice core samples, provides valuable palaeoclimate data. Palynology and dendroclimatology are also effective ways to study long-term changes in vegetation and reconstruct past climates using pollen and tree proxies. Sediment cores from various locations in Slovenia have been studied to understand past environmental changes. Borehole temperature profiles as well as historical records were also used to reconstruct past climate conditions. Studies have shown specific periods when climatic changes likely played a major role, but a complete timeline of the Slovenian climate throughout the Holocene has not yet been fully developed.

First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources

Abstract. The anthropogenically intensified greenhouse effect has caused a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere during the industrial period. This, in turn, has led to an energy surplus in various components of the Earth system, with the ocean storing the largest part. The land contribution ranks second with the latest observational estimates based on borehole temperature profiles, which quantify the terrestrial energy surplus to be 6 % in the last 5 decades, whereas studies based on state-of-the-art climate models scale it down to 2 %. This underestimation stems from land surface models (LSMs) having a subsurface that is too shallow, which severely constrains the land heat uptake simulated by Earth system models (ESMs). A forced simulation of the last 2000 years with the Max Planck Institute ESM (MPI-ESM) using a deep LSM captures 4 times more heat than the standard shallow MPI-ESM simulations in the historical period, well above the estimates provided by other ESMs. However, deepening the LSM does not remarkably affect the simulated surface temperature. It is shown that the heat stored during the historical period by an ESM using a deep LSM component can be accurately estimated by considering the surface temperatures simulated by the ESM using a shallow LSM and propagating them with a standalone forward model. This result is used to derive estimates of land heat uptake using all available observational datasets, reanalysis products, and state-of-the-art ESM experiments. This approach yields values of 10.5–16.0 ZJ for 1971–2018, which are 12 %–42 % smaller than the latest borehole-based estimates (18.2 ZJ).

Antarctic Ice Sheet paleo-constraint database

Abstract. We present a database of observational constraints on past Antarctic Ice Sheet changes during the last glacial cycle intended to consolidate the observations that represent our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for state-space estimation and paleo-model calibrations. The database is a major expansion of the initial work of Briggs and Tarasov (2013). It includes new data types and multi-tier data quality assessment. The updated constraint database, AntICE2 (https://theghub.org/resources/4884, Lecavalier et al., 2022), consists of observations of past grounded- and floating-ice-sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. In addition to paleo-observations, the present-day ice sheet geometry and surface ice velocities are incorporated to constrain the present-day ice sheet configuration. The method by which the data are curated using explicitly defined criteria is detailed. Moreover, the observational uncertainties are specified. The methodology by which the constraint database can be applied to evaluate a given ice sheet reconstruction is discussed. The implementation of the AntICE2 database for Antarctic Ice Sheet model calibrations will improve Antarctic Ice Sheet predictions during past warm and cold periods and yield more robust paleo-model spin ups for forecasting future ice sheet changes.

Geothermal heat flow from borehole measurements at the margin of Princess Elizabeth Land (East Antarctic Ice Sheet)

AbstractA 198.8 m deep borehole was drilled through ice to subglacial bedrock in the northwestern marginal part of Princess Elizabeth Land, ~12 km south of Zhongshan Station, in January–February 2019. Three years later, in February 2022, the borehole temperature profile was measured, and the geothermal heat flow (GHF) was estimated using a 1-D time-dependent energy-balance equation. For a depth corresponding to the base of the ice sheet, the GHF was calculated as 72.6 ± 2.3 mW m−2and temperature −4.53 ± 0.27°C. The regional averages estimated for this area based, generally, on tectonic setting vary from 55 to 66 mW m−2. A higher GHF is interpreted to originate mostly from the occurrence of metamorphic complexes intruded by heat-producing elements in the subglacial bedrock below the drill site.

Distributed Thermal Response Multi-Source Modeling to Evaluate Heterogeneous Subsurface Properties.

A thorough assessment of thermal properties in heterogeneous subsurface is necessary in design of low-temperature borehole heat exchangers (BHEs). A distributed thermal response test (DTRT), which combines distributed temperature sensing (DTS) with a conventional thermal response test (TRT), was conducted in a U-bend geothermal loop installed in an open borehole at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign to estimate thermal properties by analyzing the thermal response of different geologic materials while applying a constant heat input rate. Fiber-optic cables in the DTRT were deployed both inside the U-bend geothermal loop and in the center of the borehole to improve the accuracy of calculated heat-loss rates and borehole temperature profile measurements. To assess the subsurface thermal conductivity during the heating phase of the DTRT, a single-source model and a multi-source model, both based on the infinite line source method, were developed using the borehole temperature data and temperatures inside and along the outside of the loop, separately. The two models returned similar thermal conductivity values. The multi-source modeling has the advantage of predicting the thermal conductivity of heterogeneous geologic materials from borehole temperature profiles during the DTRT heating phase. In addition, based on the distributed thermal conductivity measured in the borehole, estimates were made for both radial thermal impacts and the rate of heat loss in the BHE.

Estimation method for layered ground thermal conductivity using genetic algorithm based on a 2-D heat transfer model

Estimation of ground thermal conductivity plays an important role in design of borehole heat exchanger (BHE) for ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems, and the ground is usually heterogeneous with layered thermal properties. Therefore, this study presented a novel estimation method for layered ground thermal conductivity by using distributed thermal response test (DTRT) and genetic algorithm. Firstly, a comprehensive new 2-D heat transfer model for coaxial BHE was built to simulate borehole fluid temperature profiles, it revealed that the distribution of ground thermal conductivity showed a significant influence on outlet temperature and temperature profiles. Then, based on the built model, the vertical distribution of ground thermal conductivity was estimated through DTRT data by using the genetic algorithm. It was found that the DTRT data at 2 h was effective to estimate the layered ground thermal conductivity by using the new 2-D heat transfer model. Furthermore, the estimated distribution of ground thermal conductivity was almost independent of numbers or thickness of sub-layer, and the largest difference in distributions of ground thermal conductivity among different layer thickness was less than 0.3 W/(m·K). Also, the estimation convergence showed independence with layer thickness, converged results could be obtained after 10 iterations for different layer conditions.

Melting temperature of ice and total gas content of water at the ice-water interface above subglacial Lake Vostok

It is generally assumed that the gas composition and the total gas content of Lake Vostok’s water are, to a large extent, governed by the budget of atmospheric gases entering the lake together with glacier ice melt, mostly in its northern part. Since the ice accretion that prevails in the south of the lake leads to the exclusion of gases during the freezing process, these gases can build up in the lake water. Earlier theoretical works [2, 3] have demonstrated that about 30 water residence times are required to attain equilibrium between gases in solution and those in a hydrate phase, which sets the upper bounds of concentrations of nitrogen and oxygen dissolved in sub-ice water (~2.7 g N2 L–1 and ~0.8 g O2 L–1). Here we attempt to estimate the real gas content of the lake water based on the link between the pressure melting temperature of ice and the concentration of gases dissolved in the liquid phase [2]. We use the stacked borehole temperature profile extended to 3753 m depth and the measurements of temperature of sub-ice water that entered the borehole after the second unsealing of Lake Vostok to estimate the melting temperature of ice (–2.72 ± 0.1 °C) at the ice sheet-lake interface (depth 3758.6 ± 3 m, pressure 33.78 ± 0.05 MPa). The gas content of the near-surface layer of lake that corresponds to this melting temperature is calculated to be 2.23 g.L–1, meaning that the concentration of dissolved oxygen must be as high as 0.53 g.L–1, i. e. one-two orders of magnitude higher than in any other known water bodies on our planet. The inferred gas content of sub-ice water is, by a factor of 1.6, lower than the maximal solubility of air in water in equilibrium with air hydrate, though it is still higher, by a factor of 19, than the total air content of melting glacier ice. The relatively low concentration of dissolved air in the near-surface layer of the lake revealed in this study provides a new experimental constraint for understanding the gas distribution in Lake Vostok as affected by the circulation and mixing of water beneath the ice sheet.

Geothermal heat flux from measured temperature profiles in deep ice boreholes in Antarctica

Abstract. The temperature at the Antarctic Ice Sheet bed and the temperature gradient in subglacial rocks have been directly measured only a few times, although extensive thermodynamic modeling has been used to estimate the geothermal heat flux (GHF) under the ice sheet. During the last 5 decades, deep ice-core drilling projects at six sites – Byrd, WAIS Divide, Dome C, Kohnen, Dome F, and Vostok – have succeeded in reaching or nearly reaching the bed at inland locations in Antarctica. When temperature profiles in these boreholes and steady-state heat flow modeling are combined with estimates of vertical velocity, the heat flow at the ice-sheet base is translated to a geothermal heat flux of 57.9 ± 6.4 mW m−2 at Dome C, 78.9 ± 5.0 mW m−2 at Dome F, and 86.9 ± 16.6 mW m−2 at Kohnen, all higher than the predicted values at these sites. This warm base under the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) could be caused by radiogenic heat effects or hydrothermal circulation not accounted for by the models. The GHF at the base of the ice sheet at Vostok has a negative value of −3.6 ± 5.3 mW m−2, indicating that water from Lake Vostok is freezing onto the ice-sheet base. Correlation analyses between modeled and measured depth–age scales at the EAIS sites indicate that all of them can be adequately approximated by a steady-state model. Horizontal velocities and their variation over ice-age cycles are much greater for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet than for the interior EAIS sites; a steady-state model cannot precisely describe the temperature distribution here. Even if the correlation factors for the best fitting age–depth curve are only moderate for the West Antarctic sites, the GHF values estimated here of 88.4 ± 7.6 mW m−2 at Byrd and 113.3 ± 16.9 mW m−2 at WAIS Divide can be used as references before more precise estimates are made on the subject.

Assessment of climate warming in the Western Ghats of India in the past century using geothermal records

Temperature-depth profiles of boreholes of a region can be analysed to estimate the past variations in climate. Perturbations over the surface ground temperature are imparted deep into the Earth’s subsurface. Western Ghats regions of India are considered to be one of the most ecologically rich regions and also play a crucial role in deciding the climatological characteristics of the country. This study quantifies the possible climate warming or cooling in the past century in the Western Ghats using temperature-depth profiles of five boreholes in a depth range of 140–198 m located in Koyna region (17.38° N, 73.74° E) of Maharashtra state, India. The analysis shows that there has been a significant warming of 0.8 ± 0.2 °C over the past 100 years in the region. The inferred warming is comparable with the trends of meteorological records of the area which yields an increasing trend of 0.56 °C in the surface air temperature (SAT). For further validation of results, a combined study of borehole temperature profiles and surface air temperature (SAT) profiles was done which showed that the period was warmer than the earlier long-term temperature records of the region by 0.8 °C. This pre-observational mean (POM) value seems to be consistent with previously studied POMs over India. This study provides a ‘true estimate’ of climate change and can be used as a robust technique to reconstruct the past climate warming.

Methodological and physical biases in global to subcontinental borehole temperature reconstructions: an assessment from a pseudo-proxy perspective

Abstract. Borehole-based reconstruction is a well-established technique to recover information of the past climate variability based on two main hypotheses: (1) past ground surface temperature (GST) histories can be recovered from borehole temperature profiles (BTPs); (2) the past GST evolution is coupled to surface air temperature (SAT) changes, and thus, past SAT changes can be recovered from BTPs. Compared to some of the last millennium (LM) proxy-based reconstructions, previous studies based on the borehole technique indicate a larger temperature increase during the last few centuries. The nature of these differences has fostered the assessment of this reconstruction technique in search of potential causes of bias. Here, we expand previous works to explore potential methodological and physical biases using pseudo-proxy experiments with the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). A heat-conduction forward model driven by simulated surface temperature is used to generate synthetic BTPs that are then inverted using singular value decomposition. This procedure is applied to the set of simulations that incorporates all of the LM external forcing factors as well as those that consider the concentration of the green house gases (GHGs) and the land use land cover (LULC) changes forcings separately. The results indicate that methodological issues may impact the representation of the simulated GST at different spatial scales, with the temporal logging of the BTPs as the main sampling issue that may lead to an underestimation of the simulated GST 20th-century trends. Our analysis also shows that in the surrogate reality of the CESM-LME the GST does not fully capture the SAT warming during the industrial period, and thus, there may be a further underestimation of the past SAT changes due to physical processes. Globally, this effect is mainly influenced by the GHG forcing, whereas regionally, LULC changes and other forcings factors also contribute. These findings suggest that despite the larger temperature increase suggested by the borehole estimations during the last few centuries of the LM relative to some other proxy reconstructions, both the methodological and physical biases would result in a underestimation of the 20th-century warming.

Regional climate change signals inferred from a borehole temperature profile in Muli, Qilian Mountain, using the Tikhonov method

ABSTRACT Within the gas hydrate drilling project in the Qilian Mountain permafrost region, a temperature–depth profile measured from borehole DK-12 in Juhugeng of Muri Coalfield, Tianjun County, Qinghai Province, China, was analyzed to infer recent climate changes. The long-term surface temperature and thermal gradient were retrieved from borehole temperature measurements. The ground surface temperature (GST) changes were reconstructed by inversion of transient temperature perturbations through solving an inverse heat conduction problem using the Tikhonov method. Based on the instability of this kind of inverse problem and the nature of method-dependent features of borehole paleothermometry, we initially applied the Tikhonov regularization technique to obtain a stable past GST variation pattern with relatively low resolution. The inversion results showed that this region experienced temperature fluctuation with a total warming of 3°C (±1.6°C) from 1400 to the 2010s and a more exacerbated warming starting from the 1960s. The GST trend fit the surface air temperature observation trend from the nearest Yeniugou meteorological station. This work fills the gap created by limited meteorological records in the Muli area and extends knowledge of ground surface temperature trends going back more than ten centuries.

Recent climate changes in the northwestern Qaidam Basin inferred from geothermal gradients

Temperature perturbations under the ground surface are a direct thermal response to temperature changes on the ground surface. Thus, borehole temperature measurements can be used to reconstruct the temperature history of the ground surface using borehole Paleothermometry. In this study, we use seven borehole temperature profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature variation for the past 514 years in the Qaidam Basin, northwestern China. Borehole transient temperature measurements from seven sites in the northwestern Qaidam Basin were separated from the geothermal gradients and analyzed using the functional space inversion method to determine the ground surface temperature variation history of the region. All of the temperature profiles show the effects of recent climatic disturbances. The inversion reveals that during the last 514 years, the ground surface temperature has increased by an average of 1.2 °C (−0.11 to 2.21 °C). Clear signs of a cold period between 1500 and 1900 A.D. were found, which corresponds to the Little Ice Age. The coldest period occurred between 1780 and 1790 A.D. with a ground surface temperature of 5.4 °C. The reconstructed ground surface temperature shows an increasing trend during the 19th and the 20th centuries, but the temperature began to decrease in the late twentieth century. However, during the past 514 years, the highest temperature occurred in the 1990s. This reconstructed ground surface temperature variation history is verified by the simulated annual surface air temperature computed using EdGCM, while the cooling trend is confirmed by reconstructions of the winter half-year minimum temperatures from tree rings on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Vertical groundwater flux estimation from borehole temperature profiles by a numerical model, RFLUX

AbstractWe developed a numerical model, RFLUX, which uses the heat tracer method for vertical groundwater flux estimation, and applied it to the Leizhou Peninsula, South China, to provide information to inform local groundwater resource utilization and management. The temperature–depth (TD) profiles of 24 boreholes, along with the observed ground surface temperature (GST) and surface air temperature (SAT) series in recent decades, were collected in this area. Underground TD data demonstrated the capacity to identify groundwater flow patterns, and local GST and SAT data demonstrated a strong correlation with each other over monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. In the RFLUX model, the average GST and SAT series were applied as an upper boundary condition, and a nonlinear initial condition was set using an analytical solution from the literature. The model results of selected TD profiles demonstrated that the annual vertical groundwater flux was about 0.15 m a−1, which tended to be overestimated if a linear initial condition was used. This model can be easily applied with minor modifications, considering its clear purpose and simplicity.

Evaluation of temperature profiling quality in determining energy efficiencies of borehole heat exchangers

By profiling the natural temperature of borehole heat exchangers it is possible to determine the thermal conductivity λ of the ground using Fourier’s law. However, analyses of borehole temperature profiles lead to the conclusion that the profiles differ from the theoretical data. The causes are many, including urban infrastructure leading to ground temperature profiles being heavily distorted. Among factors impacting ground temperature profiles are: buildings, roads, heat pipelines, water pipelines, and sewers. Ground temperature profiles influenced by urban infrastructure are not valid for determining ground thermal conductivity. The aim of the work is to analyze factors influencing temperature logging changes in borehole heat exchangers and their suitability for determining ground thermal conductivity. Based on the temperature logging, the depth of periodic heat penetration is assessed and is compared with the value determined on the basis of the map. It is found that the natural temperature profiles in borehole heat exchangers are only partially suitable for the analysis of the thermal conductivity of rocks.

Hydrologic interpretation of seasonally dynamic ambient temperature profiles in sealed bedrock boreholes

This study evaluates the utility of ambient temperature profiles collected in sealed bedrock boreholes to assess variability in groundwater flow in discretely fractured shallow bedrock environments. A conceptual model for groundwater flow and groundwater-surface water temperature conditions and their interaction in a temperate climate is developed through a statistical interpretation of time-lapse thermal deviation logs. Temperature profiles were collected in three angled and three vertical boreholes drilled to 24–32 mbgs (meters below ground surface) and temporarily sealed with an impermeable fabric liner in a fractured dolostone bedrock aquifer adjacent to and extending beneath a bedrock river to monitor seasonal hydrodynamics. Ambient borehole temperature profiles collected every 1–8 weeks over a 12 month period identified zones of hydraulic activity during periods of intra-seasonal stability without the interference of open borehole cross-connection. Signal cross-correlation and Fourier spectra analysis of thermal deviation logs provided a novel way to observe the shallow bedrock flow system’s temperature evolution due to advection along discrete fractures in response to seasonal transience, and to identify and isolate noise caused by free-convection cells within the sealed borehole. This approach represents a diagnostic tool that improves confidence in identifying depth discrete, hydraulically active fracture zones from thermal deviation data sets in a shallow, fractured sedimentary bedrock environment. Variably scaled free-convection cells were observed within the borehole water columns during the colder winter periods. Although these periods were accompanied by higher signal noise near the river/atmospheric interface, these cells led to a temporary thermal disequilibrium between the borehole water column and formation water deeper in the bedrock. These conditions increased the maximum depth of thermal detections associated with discrete groundwater flow features from 14 mbgs in the summer to 26 mbgs in the winter, thereby enhancing the understanding of shallow groundwater flow systems under the direct influence of surface water.

Geothermal Heat Flux Reveals the Iceland Hotspot Track Underneath Greenland

AbstractCurie depths beneath Greenland are revealed by spectral analysis of data from the World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map 2. A thermal model of the lithosphere then provides a corresponding geothermal heat flux map. This new map exhibits significantly higher frequency but lower amplitude variation than earlier heat flux maps and provides an important boundary condition for numerical ice‐sheet models and interpretation of borehole temperature profiles. In addition, it reveals new geologically significant features. Notably, we identify a prominent quasi‐linear elevated geothermal heat flux anomaly running northwest–southeast across Greenland. We interpret this feature to be the relic of the passage of the Iceland hotspot from 80 to 50 Ma. The expected partial melting of the lithosphere and magmatic underplating or intrusion into the lower crust is compatible with models of observed satellite gravity data and recent seismic observations. Our geological interpretation has potentially significant implications for the geodynamic evolution of Greenland.

Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles

Abstract. We have compiled, collected, and analyzed 31 temperature–depth profiles from boreholes in the Atacama Desert in central and northern Chile. After screening these profiles, we found that only nine profiles at four different sites were suitable to invert for ground temperature history. For all the sites, no surface temperature variations could be resolved for the period 1500–1800. In the northern coastal region of Chile, there is no perceptible temperature variation at all from 1500 to present. In the northern central Chile region, between 26 and 28∘ S, the data suggest a cooling from ≈ 1850 to ≈ 1980 followed by a 1.9 K warming starting ≈ 20–40 years BP. This result is consistent with the ground surface temperature histories for Peru and the semiarid regions of South America. The duration of the cooling trend is poorly resolved and it may coincide with a marked short cooling interval in the 1960s that is found in meteorological records. The total warming is greater than that inferred from proxy climate reconstructions for central Chile and southern South America, and by the PMIP3-CMIP5 surface temperature simulations for the north-central Chile grid points. The differences among different climate reconstructions, meteorological records, and models are likely due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution among the various data sets and the models.

Spurious Additional Warming Reconstructed From Borehole Temperatures Corrected for the Effect of the Last Glacial Cycle

AbstractReconstructions of past ground surface temperature changes from temperature logs conducted in several hundred meter deep boreholes have proved to be a valuable independent source of information on climate variations over the last millennium. The reconstruction techniques have been evolving for more than two decades to extract optimally the climate signal of the last millennium contained in the temperature logs of different length performed in sites with different histories of the Last Glacial Cycle. This paper analyzes the method of the Last Glacial Cycle thermal effect removal from such borehole temperature profiles used by Beltrami et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071317) in reconstructing the last 500 year history. I show that the reported results of additional warming in this period reconstructed from the corrected borehole data for North America are an artifact generated by the correction.

Crustal heat production and estimate of terrestrial heat flow in central East Antarctica, with implications for thermal input to the East Antarctic ice sheet

Abstract. Terrestrial heat flow is a critical first-order factor governing the thermal condition and, therefore, mechanical stability of Antarctic ice sheets, yet heat flow across Antarctica is poorly known. Previous estimates of terrestrial heat flow in East Antarctica come from inversion of seismic and magnetic geophysical data, by modeling temperature profiles in ice boreholes, and by calculation from heat production values reported for exposed bedrock. Although accurate estimates of surface heat flow are important as an input parameter for ice-sheet growth and stability models, there are no direct measurements of terrestrial heat flow in East Antarctica coupled to either subglacial sediment or bedrock. As has been done with bedrock exposed along coastal margins and in rare inland outcrops, valuable estimates of heat flow in central East Antarctica can be extrapolated from heat production determined by the geochemical composition of glacial rock clasts eroded from the continental interior. In this study, U, Th, and K concentrations in a suite of Proterozoic (1.2–2.0 Ga) granitoids sourced within the Byrd and Nimrod glacial drainages of central East Antarctica indicate average upper crustal heat production (Ho) of about 2.6 ± 1.9 µW m−3. Assuming typical mantle and lower crustal heat flux for stable continental shields, and a length scale for the distribution of heat production in the upper crust, the heat production values determined for individual samples yield estimates of surface heat flow (qo) ranging from 33 to 84 mW m−2 and an average of 48.0 ± 13.6 mW m−2. Estimates of heat production obtained for this suite of glacially sourced granitoids therefore indicate that the interior of the East Antarctic ice sheet is underlain in part by Proterozoic continental lithosphere with an average surface heat flow, providing constraints on both geodynamic history and ice-sheet stability. The ages and geothermal characteristics of the granites indicate that crust in central East Antarctica resembles that in the Proterozoic Arunta and Tennant Creek inliers of Australia but is dissimilar to other areas like the Central Australian Heat Flow Province that are characterized by anomalously high heat flow. Age variation within the sample suite indicates that central East Antarctic lithosphere is heterogeneous, yet the average heat production and heat flow of four age subgroups cluster around the group mean, indicating minor variation in the thermal contribution to the overlying ice sheet from upper crustal heat production. Despite these minor differences, ice-sheet models may favor a geologically realistic input of crustal heat flow represented by the distribution of ages and geothermal characteristics found in these glacial clasts.

Two-dimensional prognostic experiments for fast-flowing ice streams from the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap

Abstract. Prognostic experiments for fast-flowing ice streams on the southern side of the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap on Komsomolets Island, Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, were undertaken in this study. The experiments were based on inversions of basal friction coefficients using a two-dimensional flow-line thermocoupled model and Tikhonov's regularization method. The modeled ice temperature distributions in the cross sections were obtained using ice surface temperature histories that were inverted previously from borehole temperature profiles derived at the summit of the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap and the elevational gradient of ice surface temperature changes (about 6.5 °C km−1). Input data included interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) ice surface velocities, ice surface elevations, and ice thicknesses obtained from airborne measurements, while the surface mass balance was adopted from previous investigations for the implementation of both the forward and inverse problems. The prognostic experiments revealed that both ice mass and ice stream extent declined for the reference time-independent surface mass balance. Specifically, the grounding line retreated: (a) along the B–B′ flow line from ∼ 40 to ∼ 30 km (the distance from the summit), (b) along the C–C′ flow line from ∼ 43 to ∼ 37 km, and (c) along the D–D′ flow line from ∼ 41 to ∼ 32 km, when considering a time period of 500 years and assuming a time-independent surface mass balance. Ice flow velocities in the ice streams decreased with time and this trend resulted in the overall decline of the outgoing ice flux. Generally, the modeled glacial evolution was in agreement with observations of deglaciation of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago.