Boreal Summer Months Research Articles

Increased summertime wildfire as a major driver of the clear-sky dimming in the Siberian Arctic from 2000 to 2020

A warming Arctic is expected to exacerbate wildfires in Siberia, potentially creating a critical feedback to the Arctic climate change. However, our understanding of these fire-climate interactions remains limited. This study investigated changes in East Siberian wildfires and their influence on fire emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and the surface clear-sky insolation across the Siberian Arctic from 2000 to 2020 using satellite observations. Our analysis reveals a substantial increase in wildfires, with fire counts doubling (a 114% increase) and fire radiative power surging by 8.4 × 106 MW compared to the early 21st century. Over 93% of this increase occurred during the boreal summer months. These intensified wildfires led to a significant rise in aerosol emission (organic carbon, PM2.5, and black carbon) exceeding 75% in East Siberia. Consequently, fire-season AOD in the Siberian Arctic increased by 33% (6.0 × 10−2), with 85% (5.1 × 10−2) attributable to wildfire changes. The wildfire-associated increase in AOD resulted in enhanced clear-sky dimming of 4.1 ± 3.2 W m−2 across the Siberian Arctic from 2000 to 2020. These findings suggest a critical feedback mechanism: a warming Arctic drives increased wildfires in Siberia, which in turn significantly impact the Arctic surface radiative budget through enhanced clear-sky dimming. Future simulations and projections for the Arctic should prioritize incorporating the feedback effects of intensifying wildfires.

Semidiurnal nonmigrating tides in low-latitude lower thermospheric NO: A climatology based on 20 years of Odin/SMR measurements

The Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR) on board the Odin satellite provides almost 20 years of nitric oxide (NO) measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) at equatorial crossing local solar times (LSTs) of 6AM and 6PM. In this study, we use Odin/SMR observations to estimate how lower thermospheric NO mixing ratios at low latitudes are affected by solar nonmigrating tides. Most of the previous studies based on satellite data have focused on the signatures of diurnal tides in the MLT and above, while we concentrate here on nonmigrating semidiurnal tides. To study the contribution of these tides to NO mixing ratio variations, we average pairs of NO measurements along ascending and descending orbital tracks at 107 km altitude over latitudes between −40°and +40°. We consider monthly climatologies of these pair-averages and analyse residuals with respect to their zonal mean. In this way, it is possible to study the effect of nonmigrating even-numbered tidal components, albeit there is a non-tidal component arising largely from quasi-stationary planetary waves. Spectral wave amplitudes are extracted using a Fourier transform as function of (apparent) zonal wavenumber with a focus around −30°, −20°and 30°latitudes. From our analysis, it appears that the semidiurnal (apparent) zonal wavenumber 4 arising from the SW6 and SE2 tides is dominant close to the equator (e.g., at −20°), except during some boreal summer months (June, July, August). On the other hand, wave-1 plays a more prominent role at subtropical latitudes, especially in the southern hemisphere, where it surpasses wave-4 during 7 months (March and May-to-October) at −30°. There is little observational evidence to date documenting the presence of the semidiurnal nonmigrating tides in NO in the low-latitude MLT. Our results hence provide one of the first evidences of the climatological signature of these tides in NO, in an altitude range that remains poorly observed.

Spring Land Temperature in Tibetan Plateau and Global-Scale Summer Precipitation: Initialization and Improved Prediction

Abstract Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction in boreal spring and summer months, which contains a significant number of high-signal events, is scientifically challenging and prediction skill has remained poor for years. Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring observed surface ­temperatures show a lag correlation with summer precipitation in several remote regions, but current global land–atmosphere coupled models are unable to represent this behavior due to significant errors in producing observed TP surface temperatures. To address these issues, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program launched the “Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) initiative as a community effort to test the impact of land temperature in high-mountain regions on S2S prediction by climate models: more than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this project. After using an innovative new land state initialization approach based on observed surface 2-m temperature over the TP in the LS4P experiment, results from a multimodel ensemble provide evidence for a causal relationship in the observed association between the Plateau spring land temperature and summer precipitation over several regions across the world through teleconnections. The influence is underscored by an out-of-phase oscillation between the TP and Rocky Mountain surface temperatures. This study reveals for the first time that high-mountain land temperature could be a substantial source of S2S precipitation predictability, and its effect is probably as large as ocean surface temperature over global “hotspot” regions identified here; the ensemble means in some “hotspots” produce more than 40% of the observed anomalies. This LS4P approach should stimulate more follow-on explorations.

Beyond the lockdowns: satellite observations of aerosol optical depth through 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

Anticipated future reductions in aerosol emissions are expected to accelerate warming and substantially change precipitation characteristics. Therefore, it is vital to identify the existing patterns and possible future pathways of anthropogenic aerosol reductions. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted abrupt, global declines in transportation and industrial activities, providing opportunities to study the aerosol effects of pandemic-driven emissions changes. Here, measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from two satellite instruments were used to characterize aerosol burdens throughout 2020 in four Northern Hemisphere source regions (Eastern & Central China, the United States, India, and Europe). In most regions, record-low measures of AOD persisted beyond the earliest ‘lockdown’ periods of the pandemic. Record-low values were most concentrated during the boreal spring and summer months, when 56% to 72% of sampled months showed record-low AOD values for their respective regions. However, in India and Eastern & Central China, the COVID-19 AOD signature was eclipsed by sources of natural variability (dust) and a multi-year trend, respectively. In the United States and Europe, a likely COVID-19 signal peaks in the summer of 2020, contributing as much as −.01 to −.03 AOD units to observed anomalies.

Interhemispheric Asymmetries in Ionospheric Electron Density Responses During Geomagnetic Storms: A Study Using Space‐Based and Ground‐Based GNSS and AMPERE Observations

AbstractWe utilize Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements and electron density (Ne) retrieval profiles from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers onboard multiple Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites to characterize large‐scale ionosphere‐thermosphere system responses during geomagnetic storms. We also analyze TEC measurements from GNSS receivers in a worldwide ground‐based network. Measurements from four storms during June and July 2012 (boreal summer months), December 2015 (austral summer month), and March 2015 (equinoctial month) are analyzed to study global ionospheric responses and the interhemispheric asymmetry of these responses. We find that the space‐based and ground‐based TECs and their responses are consistent in all four geomagnetic storms. The global 3D view from GNSS‐Radio Occultation (RO) Ne observations captures enhancements and the uplifting of Ne structures at high latitudes during the initial and main phases. Subsequently, Ne depletion occurs at high latitudes and starts progressing into midlatitude and low latitude as the storm reaches its recovery phase. A clear time lag is evident in the storm‐induced Ne perturbations at high latitudes between the summer and winter hemispheres. The interhemispheric asymmetry in TEC and Ne appears to be consistent with the magnitudes of the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) high latitude integrated field‐aligned currents (FACs), which are 3–4 MA higher in the summer hemisphere than in the winter hemisphere during these storms. The ionospheric TEC and Ne responses combined with the AMPERE‐observed FACs indicate that summer preconditioning in the ionosphere‐thermosphere system plays a key role in the interhemispheric asymmetric storm responses.

Variability of tropical cyclone rainfall volume in the Philippines

AbstractThis study investigates the variability of tropical cyclone (TC)‐induced rainfall volume and its relation to the total rainfall in the Philippines. Of the total 1,843 TCs that formed in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin from 1951 to 2020, 983 (53%) and 1,253 (68%) TCs directly and indirectly, respectively, contributed 23.3% of the total rainfall on Philippine landmass. Total seasonal rainfall is negatively correlated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (February–May [FMAM] r = −0.71 and October–January [ONDJ] r = −0.77) except for the boreal summer months of June–September (JJAS) where no correlation was observed. Similarly, TC rain also shows a negative but weaker correlation with ENSO (FMAM r = −0.23 and ONDJ r = −0.33) except for JJAS, despite JJAS season having the highest TC rain contribution. Nevertheless, all top 90th percentile TC rain years occurred during La Niña and ENSO‐neutral years, similar to the total rain. Rainfall volume from individual TCs depends mainly on its rain duration and the area of land affected. There are no significant trends found in annual and seasonal TC rainfall, but the frequency of extreme TCs with rainfall volume in the upper 95th percentile is dropping by 10%·decade−1. Annual TC rain volume is most correlated with TC landfall frequency (r = 0.81). Despite the influence of ENSO on TC activity and tracks in the NWP region, the results in this study suggest that the use of the ENSO Niño3.4 index alone may not be enough for seasonal TC rainfall forecasts.

Can local fieldwork help to represent intra-urban variability of canopy parameters relevant for tropical African climate studies?

Rapid and uncontrolled urbanization in tropical Africa is increasingly leading to unprecedented socio-economical and environmental challenges in cities, particularly urban heat and climate change. The latter calls for a better representation of tropical African cities’ properties relevant for urban climate studies. Here, we demonstrate the possibility of collecting urban canopy parameters during a field campaign in the boreal summer months of 2018 for deriving a Local Climate Zone (LCZ) map and for improving the physical representation of climate-relevant urban morphological, thermal and radiative characteristics. The comparison of the resulting field-derived LCZ map with an existing map obtained from the World Urban Data and Access Portal Tool framework shows large differences. In particular, our map results in more vegetated open low-rise classes. In addition, site-specific fieldwork-derived urban characteristics are compared against the LCZ universal parameters. The latter shows that our fieldwork adds important information to the universal parameters by more specifically considering the presence of corrugated metal in the city of Kampala. This material is a typical roofing material found in densely built environments and informal settlements. It leads to lower thermal emissivity but higher thermal conductivity and capacity of buildings. To illustrate the importance of site-specific urban parameters, the newly derived site-specific urban characteristics are used as input fields to an urban parametrization scheme embedded in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. This implementations decreases the surface temperature bias from 5.34 to 3.97 K. Based on our results, we recommend future research on tropical African cities to focus on a detailed representation of cities, with particular attention to impervious surface fraction and building materials.

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes. Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time. Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis. Regression was used to find the relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates. Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2 = 0.610, p = 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature is on SARS-CoV-2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase is associated with a 1% decrease-and a one degree decrease could be associated with a 3.7% increase-in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. This model of the effect of decreasing temperatures can only be verified over time as the pandemic proceeds through colder months. The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.

Long-term insights into marine turtle sightings, strandings and captures around the UK and Ireland (1910–2018)

AbstractWith over a century of records, we present a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal occurrence of marine turtle sightings and strandings in the UK and Ireland between 1910 and 2018. Records of hard-shell turtles, including loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta, N = 240) and Kemp's ridley turtles (Lepidochelys kempii, N = 61), have significantly increased over time. However, in the most recent years there has been a notable decrease in records. The majority of records of hard-shell turtles were juveniles and occurred in the boreal winter months when the waters are coolest in the North-east Atlantic. They generally occurred on the western aspects of the UK and Ireland highlighting a pattern of decreasing records with increasing latitude, supporting previous suggestions that juvenile turtles arrive in these waters via the North Atlantic current systems. Similarly, the majority of the strandings and sightings of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea, N = 1683) occurred on the western aspects of the UK and the entirety of Ireland's coastline. In contrast to hard-shell turtles, leatherback turtles were most commonly recorded in the boreal summer months with the majority of strandings being adult sized, of which there has been a recent decrease in annual records. The cause of the recent annual decreases in turtle strandings and sightings across all three species is unclear; however, changes to overall population abundance, prey availability, anthropogenic threats and variable reporting effort could all contribute. Our results provide a valuable reference point to assess species range modification due to climate change, identify possible evidence of anthropogenic threats and to assess the future trajectory of marine turtle populations in the North Atlantic.

Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles

Climate prediction skill on the interannual timescale, which sits between that of seasonal and decadal, is investigated using large ensembles from the Met Office and CESM initialised coupled prediction systems. A key goal is to determine what can be skillfully predicted about the coming year when combining these two ensembles together. Annual surface temperature predictions show good skill at both global and regional scales, but skill diminishes when the trend associated with global warming is removed. Skill for the extended boreal summer (months 7–11) and winter (months 12–16) seasons are examined, focusing on circulation and rainfall predictions. Skill in predicting rainfall in tropical monsoon regions is found to be significant for the majority of regions examined. Skill increases for all regions when active ENSO seasons are forecast. There is some regional skill for predicting extratropical circulation, but predictive signals appear to be spuriously weak.

Seasonality of the MJO Impact on Upper Troposphere–Lower Stratosphere Temperature, Circulation, and Composition

Abstract Seasonal differences in the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropical and extratropical upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) temperature, circulation, and trace gases are examined using trace gases (ozone, carbon monoxide, and water vapor) and temperature from measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and meteorological fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). During boreal winter months (November–February), atmospheric fields exhibit a well-known planetary-scale perturbation consistent with the upper-level flow modeled by Gill, with twin high and low pressure extratropical systems associated with a Rossby wave response. However, the circulation anomalies in the UTLS differ during boreal summer months (June–September), when background UTLS circulation north of the equator is dominated by the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone. The twin high and low pressure extratropical systems are much weaker but with a stronger equatorial Kelvin wave front that encircles the globe as the MJO propagates eastward. These differences are explained in terms of seasonal variations in vertically propagating Kelvin waves that strongly depend on the zonal structure of the climatological background winds. The trace gas response to the MJO is strongly coherent with circulation anomalies showing strong seasonal differences. The stronger equatorial Kelvin wave front during the summer produces enhanced upwelling in the tropical tropopause layer, resulting in significant cooling of this region, reduced ozone and water vapor, and enhanced carbon monoxide.

Potential connections between atmospheric rivers in China and Australia

Results from a collaborative project between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and China Meteorological Administration found that atmospheric rivers (ARs) can occur simultaneously in East Asia and Australia. Furthermore, ARs and the Northwest Cloud Band in the Australia region tend to reach their peaks during austral cool season (May–August). At the same time that the Asian summer monsoon develops and its meridional moisture transport and AR activities intensify. This has prompted us to explore potential connections of ARs in the two regions. In this study, we firstly analysed two ARs and their mechanism that occurred in China and Australia in June 2016, which caused significant rainfall in both countries. We then explored the atmospheric circulation background for such AR connections. From this case study, we show that ARs originating from the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans can become bifurcated through Indo-Pacific inter-basin interactions. The position of the bifurcation appears to depend on the location and intensity of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), the subtropical high in the Australian region and the middle-latitude storm track migration in the southern hemisphere. Moreover, by analysing bifurcated AR events from the past two decades, we show that they are more likely to occur during boreal summer months. Most of the bifurcations occurred in the boreal summer following the decaying phase of an El Niño in its preceding winter, due to a delayed El Niño Southern Oscillation influence on the WPSH and a subtropical high in the Australian region. Our research further demonstrates the value of applying AR analysis in improving our understanding of the weather and climate in the Australia–Asian monsoon region.

Recent Strengthening of Greenland Blocking Drives Summertime Surface Warming over Northern Canada and Eastern Siberia

AbstractIn the last three decades, rapid surface warming is observed in the land areas of northern high latitudes during boreal summer months. Although the warming trend is thought to be driven by early snowmelt, the exact causes, especially its relationship with atmospheric circulation changes, remain a subject of debate. By analyzing ERA-Interim data, this study examines the possible factors for rapid subarctic warming. It is found that more than half of the warming trend over the entire subarctic and 80% over northern Canada and eastern Siberia (regions with maximum amplification) can be explained by enhanced downward infrared radiation (IR). Downward IR is largely driven by horizontal atmospheric moisture flux convergence and warm-air advection. The positive trend in geopotential height over the Greenland region is key for moisture flux convergence over northern Canada and eastern Siberia through changes in the storm tracks. An enhanced summertime blocking activity in the Greenland region seems responsible for the positive trend in geopotential heights.

Assessment of future changes in Southeast Asian precipitation using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections data set

Extreme precipitation and associated flooding cause severe damage to society and the environment. Future climate projections suggest an intensification of precipitation extremes in many regions. However, there is an increasing need for climate change impact assessment at higher spatial resolution, particularly for regions with complex geography such as Southeast Asia (SEA). In this study, we analysed the NASA Earth Exchange 0.25° resolution daily precipitation projections from an ensemble of 20 climate models under two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The variability in future precipitation projections is analysed and quantified for six geographical subregions, two climatological regions (wet and dry), and the low‐elevation coastal zones in SEA. Various aspects of precipitation structure are studied using indices that characterize precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, extreme precipitation amount, and maximum daily precipitation at annual and seasonal scales. The results show substantial increases in mean and extreme precipitation in many parts of SEA by the end of the 21st century under both emission scenarios, thus increasing the region's vulnerability to precipitation‐driven hazards. The projected centennial increase in total annual precipitation relative to the baseline period of 1970–1999 when averaged over all land grid cells is about 15% under RCP8.5 scenario, with larger values (∼20%) over mainland SEA and Philippines and smaller values (∼6%) in Java island. The projected changes in extreme precipitation are stronger compared to the total annual precipitation under both emission scenarios. The New Guinea and Java regions show the largest and smallest increases in annual maximum daily precipitation, with ensemble mean values of 30 and 17%, respectively, under RCP8.5 scenario. The results also reveal large inter‐model spread in projected changes, particularly during boreal winter and summer months.

Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate and combine monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation outputs from seasonal dynamical forecast systems. The simple multimodel (SMM), a method that combines predictions with equal weights, was used as a benchmark. This research focuses on Europe and adjacent regions for predictions initialized in May and November, covering the boreal summer and winter months. The forecast quality of the FA and SMM as well as the single seasonal dynamical forecast systems was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic measures. A non-parametric bootstrap method was used to account for the sampling uncertainty of the forecast quality measures. We show that the FA performs as well as or better than the SMM in regions where the dynamical forecast systems were able to represent the main modes of climate covariability. An illustration with the near-surface temperature over North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and Middle-East in summer months associated with the well predicted first mode of climate covariability is offered. However, the main modes of climate covariability are not well represented in most situations discussed in this study as the seasonal dynamical forecast systems have limited skill when predicting the European climate. In these situations, the SMM performs better more often.

Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS

The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Nino southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3–8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.

Evidence for wave resonance as a key mechanism for generating high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves in boreal summer

Several recent northern hemisphere summer extremes have been linked to persistent high-amplitude wave patterns (e.g. heat waves in Europe 2003, Russia 2010 and in the US 2011, Floods in Pakistan 2010 and Europe 2013). Recently quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) was proposed as a mechanism that, when certain dynamical conditions are fulfilled, can lead to such high-amplitude wave events. Based on these resonance conditions a detection scheme to scan reanalysis data for QRA events in boreal summer months was implemented. With this objective detection scheme we analyzed the occurrence and duration of QRA events and the associated atmospheric flow patterns in 1979–2015 reanalysis data. We detect a total number of 178 events for wave 6, 7 and 8 and find that during roughly one-third of all high amplitude events QRA conditions were met for respective waves. Our analysis reveals a significant shift for quasi-stationary waves 6 and 7 towards high amplitudes during QRA events, lagging first QRA-detection by typically one week. The results provide further evidence for the validity of the QRA hypothesis and its important role in generating high amplitude waves in boreal summer.

A multi-scale analysis of moisture supply associated with precipitation on Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

<p>Wrapped by the Pacific waters and the mist of shipwrecks and pirates stories, one of the rainiest Eastern Pacific islands protects a biodiversity treasure: Isla del Coco. This study presents the analysis of moisture sources linked with contributions to precipitation in the area. The diurnal cycle of precipitation on the island was reviewed from GPS station data previously evaluated using available meteorological data from field campaigns held on the island in 2011 and 2012. Near-surface salinity patterns were also analyzed along with sea surface temperature, evaporation, Ongoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) as well as latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moisture contributions to precipitation on the island are supplied by evaporative sources, and moisture recycling is important. Regional precipitation is a continuous supply of moisture for the atmosphere whereas transport from evaporative sources is seasonally constrained. The analysis of the diurnal cycle of moisture supply suggests that contributions from available moisture linked with precipitation recycling show a slightly delayed response to deep convection in the region. The diurnal cycle of contributions to precipitation from evaporative moisture sources, based on the modeling component of the work, is consistent with the diurnal cycle of precipitation. The trajectory analysis remarks the role of the low level winds, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and the stability conditions to modulate the supply of moisture. The moisture contributions from the sources present a different sensitivity to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Contributions from precipitation recycling showed a large variability linked to ENSO as increasing contributions were determined to be related with El Niño during boreal summer and autumn months. The variability of the contributions from a North-east evaporative source is modulated by the response of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ; Amador, 1998; Amador, 2008) to ENSO. The South-western evaporative source showed sensitivity to El Niño, as transport was found to decrease (increase) from November to March (May to July), meanwhile the response to La Niña was small. Good agreement amongst the ENSO response of the fields and the known dynamics of the region was found.</p><div> </div>

The tropical Atlantic surface wind divergence belt and its effect on clouds

Abstract. A well-defined surface wind divergence (SWD) belt with distinct cloud properties forms over the equatorial Atlantic during the boreal summer months. This belt separates the deep convective clouds of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from the shallow marine stratocumulus cloud decks forming over the cold-water subtropical region of the southern branch of the Hadley cell in the Atlantic. Using the QuikSCAT-SeaWinds and Aqua-MODIS instruments, we examined the large-scale spatiotemporal variability in the SWD belt during a 6-year period (2003–2008) and the related links to cloud properties over the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic SWD belt was found to be most pronounced from May to August, between the Equator and 2° N latitude. A positive correlation and a strong link were observed between formation of the SWD belt and a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient on the northern border of the cold tongue, supporting Wallace's vertical-mixing mechanism. The dominant cloud type over this region was shallow cumulus. Cloud properties were shown to be strongly linked to the formation and strength of the SWD zone. The findings will help to understand the link between ocean–atmosphere dynamics and cloud properties over this region, and suggest that the SWD zone be considered a unique cloud belt of the southern branch of the Atlantic Hadley cell.

Integration of prognostic aerosol–cloud interactions in a chemistry transport model coupled offline to a regional climate model

Abstract. To reduce uncertainties and hence to obtain a better estimate of aerosol (direct and indirect) radiative forcing, next generation climate models aim for a tighter coupling between chemistry transport models and regional climate models and a better representation of aerosol–cloud interactions. In this study, this coupling is done by first forcing the Rossby Center regional climate model (RCA4) with ERA-Interim lateral boundaries and sea surface temperature (SST) using the standard cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) formulation (hereafter, referred to as the "stand-alone RCA4 version" or "CTRL" simulation). In the stand-alone RCA4 version, CDNCs are constants distinguishing only between land and ocean surface. The meteorology from this simulation is then used to drive the chemistry transport model, Multiple-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), which is coupled online with the aerosol dynamics model, Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications (SALSA). CDNC fields obtained from MATCH–SALSA are then fed back into a new RCA4 simulation. In this new simulation (referred to as "MOD" simulation), all parameters remain the same as in the first run except for the CDNCs provided by MATCH–SALSA. Simulations are carried out with this model setup for the period 2005–2012 over Europe, and the differences in cloud microphysical properties and radiative fluxes as a result of local CDNC changes and possible model responses are analysed. Our study shows substantial improvements in cloud microphysical properties with the input of the MATCH–SALSA derived 3-D CDNCs compared to the stand-alone RCA4 version. This model setup improves the spatial, seasonal and vertical distribution of CDNCs with a higher concentration observed over central Europe during boreal summer (JJA) and over eastern Europe and Russia during winter (DJF). Realistic cloud droplet radii (CD radii) values have been simulated with the maxima reaching 13 μm, whereas in the stand-alone version the values reached only 5 μm. A substantial improvement in the distribution of the cloud liquid-water paths (CLWP) was observed when compared to the satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the boreal summer months. The median and standard deviation values from the "MOD" simulation are closer to observations than those obtained using the stand-alone RCA4 version. These changes resulted in a significant decrease in the total annual mean net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by −5 W m−2 over the domain selected in the study. The TOA net fluxes from the "MOD" simulation show a better agreement with the retrievals from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. The aerosol indirect effects are estimated in the "MOD" simulation in comparison to the pre-industrial aerosol emissions (1900). Our simulations estimated the domain averaged annual mean total radiative forcing of −0.64 W m−2 with a larger contribution from the first indirect aerosol effect (−0.57 W m−2) than from the second indirect aerosol effect (−0.14 W m−2).