Conjuncture Research Articles

Promoting economic recovery: the silver lining of digital transformation and corporate innovation

With the unstable international environment, the global economy has experienced a slowcession. Previous research on digital innovation in firms has often neglected the impact of macroeconomic cycles. This paper examines the moderating effect of the economic slowcession in the digital transformation and corporate innovation nexus, by using the China’s A-share listed companies’data during 2001 and 2021. The empirical results find that the positive impact of digitization on innovation is countercyclical. During recession, the positive impact of digital transformation on innovation is even greater compared to economic prosperity. Grouped regression results indicate that State-owned listed companies, Non-high tech companies, Large-scale companies, and Eastern companies are more affected by the positive moderating effect of the recession. This indicates that getting out of recession requires more aggressive support of these companies, which promotes innovation and economic recovery. This study provides a useful reference for countries in recession and provides an important complement to traditional economic cycle theory and innovation cycle theory.

Characterizing the top trading cycles rule for housing markets with lexicographic preferences when externalities are limited

AbstractWe consider a housing market model with limited externalities where agents care both about their own consumption via demand preferences and about the agent who receives their endowment via supply preferences [we extend the associated lexicographic preference domains introduced in Klaus and Meo (Econ Theory 76:779– 811, 2023)]. If preferences are demand lexicographic, then our model extends the classical Shapley–Scarf housing market (Shapley and Scarf, J Math Econ 1:23–37, 1974) with strict preferences model. Our main result is a characterization of the corresponding top trading cycles (TTC) rule by individual rationality, pair efficiency, and strategy-proofness (Theorem 1), which extends that of Ekici (Theo Econ 19:551–564, 2024) from classical Shapley–Scarf housing markets with strict preferences to our model. Two further characterizations are immediately obtained by strengthening pair efficiency to either Pareto efficiency or pairwise stability (Corollaries 1 and 2). Finally, we show that as soon as we extend the preference domain to include demand lexicographic as well as supply lexicographic preferences (e.g., when preferences are separable), no rule satisfying individual rationality, pair efficiency, and strategy-proofness exists (Theorem 2).

A Bibliometric Study of Research Patterns in National Income and Economic Growth, 2015–2024

This study aims to examine the evolution of national economic development and infrastructure research from 2015 to 2024. The research data used are those that have been published in scholarly journals that are indexed by Scopus. Data extraction results are derived from 239 documents. Results of research on the topic of national development and economic stagnation indicate that the number of trains is rather unstable. However, research on the national economy and building boom increased from 2015 to 2016 and experienced a decline in 2017. However, from 2017 to 2019 there was another decline in growth, and from 2019 to 2020 there was another decline in growth. The final year of the trend was 2020 to 2023 there was a slight decline in growth, but from 2023 to 2024 there was a further decline in growth. The results of the study on the Rodriguez-Pose domain show that there are four clusters that have been identified

Research on UK Unemployment Rate Forecast Based on ARIMA Model

The objective of this study is to predict the unemployment rate in the UK and the Eurozone for the years 2014 to 2024 using the time series analysis model known as ARIMA. It is essential to be informed of changes to employment rates in order to address them and changes in the economic environment including historical occurrences such as Brexit, COVID-19, and shifts in the labor market. The ARIMA model was used because it fits non-stationary time series, which is a feature present in the employment rates of both time series. The monthly unemployment rates for each state were seasonally adjusted and the ARIMA parameters were estimated by the automatic method. The study observed that while the interior portion of the trading cycle was effectively predicted by the ARIMA model, it failed to do so for the short-term UK unemployment in the post-2023 period because of exogenous shocks. However, the model was equally successful in predicting a marginal contraction in unemployment rates in the Euro zone after 2023. By performing the Ljung-Box test, it was established that the residuals of the models were random and therefore, the models were fit. Accordingly, the results suggest that the estimates derived from the ARIMA model are beneficial in economic predictions, which helps governments to design better social security programs and other economic plans to address the changing employment landscape.

2008 economic crisis impact on perinatal and infant mortality in Southern European countries

Abstract Introduction The study of crisis events provides important lessons to prepare for upcoming events. The Great Recession’s impact on perinatal health in Europe can provide relevant insights into the healthcare and social protection systems’ response to protecting the health of the most vulnerable groups. Objectives To assess time trends and international disparities in perinatal mortality rates (PMR) and infant mortality rates (IMR), following the Great Recession, and their association with socioeconomic indicators in Portugal, Greece, Italy and Spain. Methods Associations were assessed through generalised linear models for all four countries. A Poisson joinpoint regression model was applied to explore PMR and IMR trend changes between 2000 and 2018. Country disparities were analysed using mixed-effects multilevel models. Results IMR and PMR have decreased overall in the four selected countries between 2000 and 2018. Still, whereas in Spain, Italy and Portugal the decreasing pace was attenuated after 2009, in Greece a positive trend was found after the 2008 crisis. IMR and PMR were significantly associated with socioeconomic indicators in all four countries. National disparities in the evolution of IMR and PMR were significantly associated with most socioeconomic indicators between 2000 and 2018. Conclusions Our results confirm the impact of the Great Recession on PMR and IMR trends in all four countries, taking recurring associations between macroeconomic cycles, variations in mortality trends, macroeconomic volatility and stagnation of IMR and PMR into account. The association with socioeconomic indicators stresses the need to strengthen social protection and healthcare systems to better protect the population’s health from the earliest days. Key messages • Mortality patterns refer to the internal variability of the crisis’ effect and to persistent spatial regional inequalities appealing to the need for attention in policymaking. • The relevance of considering the political economy of global health finance and macroeconomic volatility as a major influence on the association of mortality rates with socioeconomic indicators.

The co-design of building deep retrofitting in distressed urban areas: lessons from e-SAFE

ABSTRACT This article addresses the realm of co-design in building deep retrofitting in distressed urban areas. Drawing from a pilot experience conducted between 2020 and 2023 in Catania, Italy, as part of the Horizon 2020 project e-SAFE, the authors discuss the scholarly relevance of the lessons learned through a process of engagement of public housing residents in the co-design of their building’s retrofitting. Drawing from both socio-technical and urban planning literature, the paper conceptualises co-design as a process that should provide spaces for shared learning and creativity, on the one side, and negotiability between residents and experts, on the other. In the Catania experience, co-design has encountered several obstacles, especially due to strings attached to the funded grant as well as the unfortunate socio-political conjuncture. While these obstacles made it hard to keep spaces of shared creativity open, it was crucial to at least provide spaces for negotiation, especially over those technological choices having a direct impact on residents’ relational economics. In general, the paper argues the importance of distinguishing between these two dimensions ensuring flexibility, so that even if shared creativity is constrained by circumstances, negotiable spaces can still be provided.

Researching Decolonization: Exploring the Applicability of the Concept of Decolonization to Student Activism in Ghana

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the role university students played in the decolonization discourse in Ghana. It analyses whether or not the concept of decolonization can be used to investigate the resistance of student movements through their activism. The consciousness of student movements such as the National Union of Ghana Students (NUGS) of the continuous existence of forms of colonialism despite nominal independence can be seen in student struggles for socio-economic and political justice especially struggles against neocolonialism and neoliberalism from the 1960s to the early 1990s. It investigates the continuities and discontinuities of different historical conjunctures of student movements and how these fed into the wider debates on decolonization. Using a qualitative multidisciplinary approach and relying chiefly on primary sources, open-ended interviews, newspapers and archival data, this paper analyses the connection between student political activism and the concept of decolonization in Africa. The article situates student actions within decolonisation discourses in Africa by analysing student efforts to ensure the total liberation of all African states, oppose neocolonialism, and contribute to Africa’s development.

How Do Macroeconomic Cycles and Government Policies Influence Cash Holdings? Evidence from Listed Firms in China

Cash holdings are vital for a firm’s resilience and ability to capitalize on investment opportunities amid economic fluctuations. In this study, the complex relationship between macroeconomic cycles, government policies, and the cash holdings of Chinese listed firms is investigated. By analyzing data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed firms from 2004 to 2019, this research uncovers the individual and combined effects of economic cycles and monetary policies on corporate cash management. Key findings include the following: (1) A significant negative correlation between cash holdings and economic cycle volatility indicates that firms tend to increase cash holdings during periods of instability and reduce them during economic stability. (2) There is a strong negative relationship between restrictive monetary policy and cash holdings, suggesting that firms accumulate more cash to safeguard against tighter financial conditions. (3) The interplay between economic policies and business cycles reveals that during recessions, restrictive monetary policy increases cash holdings, while economic policy uncertainty reduces them. In contrast, during economic prosperity, monetary policy has a minimal impact on cash holdings. These insights emphasize the need for firms to integrate both economic cycles and policy environments into their cash management strategies. The findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers and business leaders aiming to enhance financial stability and optimize cash holdings across different economic conditions.

Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment

Abstract We provide a systematic empirical assessment of the Minsky hypothesis that business fluctuations stem from irrational swings in expectations. Using predictable firm-level forecast errors, we build an aggregate index of irrational expectations and use it to provide three sets of results. First, we show that our index predicts aggregate credit cycles. Next, we show that these predictable credit cycles drive cycles in firm-level debt issuance and investment and similar cycles between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, as Minsky predicts. Finally, we show more pronounced cycles in firm-level financing and investment for firms with ex ante more optimistic expectations. (JEL G31, G32, G40, E32, E44)

Examining Microfinance Loan Repayment Challenges and Procedures by Small Business Owners: The Case of Vikenge Village, Morogoro, Tanzania

The research surveys the factors affecting the ability of small business owners in Vikenge village to refund microloans. This study uses institutional theory framework to investigates the constraints encountered by these firms, their means for handling these constraints, and offer hints for improvement. Applying a qualitative research design, semi-structured interviews were performed with 13 small business proprietors. Participants were purposively selected due to their experience in microfinance lending and efficient reimbursement. Through thematic analysis, substantial issues concerning repayment challenges, techniques, and recommendations for enhancement were proven. The survey reveals a variety of obstacles that influence the repayment of loans, for instance; unexpected events, personal and familial matters, fluctuations in the economy, seasonal fluctuations in business, and complications with cash flow. Methodologies to repayment include strategies like saving money daily, options for flexible repayment, clear communication, and seeking outside financial assistance. Survey respondents also offered supportive recommendations, such as using loans for their intended purposes, decreasing interest rates, allowing more flexibility in repayment schedules, providing enhanced customer education and support, ensuring loan amounts are appropriate, and improving monitoring and collection procedures. This research survey enhances value to the current body of knowledge by delivering detailed analysis on the repayment of microfinance loans in small businesses in Vikenge village. The results proposed practical recommendations for microfinance institutions to acquire tailored repayment strategies that meet the varied requirements of borrowers, eventually leading to improved financial accessibility and long-term viability.

Green finance as a tool to stimulate investments in environmentally sustainable projects

This article discusses one of the most effective methods of financing investments in fixed assets through loans or bonds. The mechanism of green financing is a tool that can attract part of the necessary investments to achieve ambitious goals of the designated strategy. The ESG (environmental, social, governance) agenda has recently become one of the most popular and widely discussed topics in global communities, including financial ones, as any transformation and change in business and economic conjunctures often require a significant amount of investment. The largest number of questions is raised by the E (environmental) component which is responsible for ecology, namely for ensuring decarbonisation of economic and social processes as well as for adapting to the challenges associated with the global energy transition, for protecting and multiplying natural capital, and reducing the harmful human impact on the environment. The article also provides a methodology for calculating the greenium that investors are willing to pay the issuer. The main attention is paid to a detailed analysis of the current state of the green bond market and to the process of forming a greenium in the Russian green finance market which will help investors make informed decisions when choosing investments.

The university: Caring community or carewashing central? Autosociobiographical reflections

This paper offers a small slice of ‘autosociobiography’: autobiographical reflections which situate these impressions in a wider social context (Ernaux, 2022, Jaquet, 2023, Twellman & Lammers, 2023). These particular autosociobiographical reflections are about my experiences of university, and how they have offered both positive and sometimes more problematic forms of community. The first part of the article pursues this by considering the social contexts of my routes taken to university, narratives of social mobility, and the forces shaping higher education over that timeframe in the UK, in that particular geographical and social conjuncture. The second part of the article shifts its attention to the present day and considers the forms of ‘carewashing’ pushed by the contemporary university in the increasingly uncaring, and difficult, UK context of marketized higher education. It ends by considering the ‘micro’ and ‘meso’ forms of community and care which are today often used to attempt to cope with and survive such contexts, as well as the ‘macro’ changes discussed throughout the article that are urgently needed to redress such ‘structural carelessness’. In the process, through these combined lenses, the article aims to consider relationships between care, community and ‘the university’.

Group incentive compatibility in a market with indivisible goods: A comment

We note that the proofs of Bird (1984), the first to show group strategy-proofness of top trading cycles (TTC), require correction. We provide a counterexample to a critical claim and present corrected proofs in the spirit of the originals. We also present a novel proof of strong group strategy-proofness using the corrected results.

Assessing robustness of consequential LCA: Insights from a multiregional economic model tailored to the cement industrial symbiosis

AbstractOne of the key challenges in conducting consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) is to identify and quantify what is likely to be affected by changes in market behavior—so‐called marginal effects. Although the critical importance of uncertainty and sensitivity assessments in attributional LCA is recognized, they are rarely conducted in consequential studies. Thus, this paper aims to address two objectives: first, to examine the uncertainty and robustness of marginal effects in consequential LCA and second, to identify the most influential group of inputs contributing to the overall variance in climate change impact scores. To accomplish this, the study employs an enhanced consequential LCA framework that integrates a multiregional economic optimization model with consequential LCA tools. The framework is applied to assess the climate implications of a 6% increase in clinker substitution within average Eastern North American cement production by 2030, relative to 2020 levels. Through this framework, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate the dispersion of the results. Subsequently, a variance‐based one‐at‐a‐time sensitivity analysis is performed to rank the most influential groups of inputs affecting the robustness of result across macroeconomic, material flow, economic, transport, and consequential life cycle inventory databases. Afterward, a conceptual framework is proposed to guide practitioners in prioritizing areas for testing consequential LCA results based on region‐specific information. This work aims to contribute to decision‐makers' access to more reliable information to support the development of effective environmental regulatory measures.

An intelligent option trading system based on heatmap analysis via PON/POD yields

In recent years, many studies have explored artificial intelligence (AI) in quantitative trading and financial prediction. Among financial products, options are highlighted for their risk management capabilities and defined trading cycles, yet they pose challenges due to their complexity. This paper proposes HAPPY (Heatmap Analysis via PON/POD Yield), an options trading system designed to predict expected winning rates (EW) by integrating actual profits, losses, and risk factors, thus enhancing traditional winning rate metrics. HAPPY employs heatmap analysis to address the risk of overfitting by smoothing isolated low EW values and incorporates machine learning (ML) models like random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosted machine (LGBM) for improved prediction accuracy. Employing TAIEX weekly options, the study evaluates EW and backtests trading performance, comparing empirical statistics and ML models. Findings indicate that ML models excel in accuracy and precision, though empirical statistics perform better in backtesting, especially as options near expiration. This research offers a robust options trading system that can be applied to other options markets or predictive models.

Critique du récit pur: gleam of time in Maurice Blanchot’s narratives

ABSTRACT Maurice Blanchot’s itinerary as a critic and writer is marked by a transformation occurring around the beginning of WW2, when Blanchot abandoned right-wing political journalism to focus on literature. His criticism and narrative fictions from the 1940s elaborate the notion of a ‘pure novel’, inspired partly by Mallarmé, in response to historical conditions of the Occupation, in an assertion of literary sovereignty after bitter political defeat. Blanchot casts this pure form of writing through figures of light and luminosity that would transcend, even destroy, empirical experience – moving toward the disaster he will later invoke – thus affording a certain evasion from historical realities, while also betraying an intimate relation to their specific concrete historical conjuncture. The argument is not that Blanchot sublimates / allegorises political disappointment through literary narrative (see Jeffrey Mehlman in the 1980s), but that his literary texts enact a relation to factual political and historical responsibility that ‘pure’ literature fails to liquidate, but rather continually evokes. Tracing out constitutive evasions in Thomas the Obscure, Aminadab, The Madness of the Day, and The Instant of my Death, reveals how Blanchot’s fiction betrays a necessary accounting of the author’s factual history, a historical responsibility called up in the strange vacuous light of literature itself.

Geopolitical risks and business fluctuations in Europe: A sectorial analysis

Should Europe Really Worry about Geopolitical Risks? This study investigates the impact of geopolitical tensions and risks on the economies of the Euro area. In particular, we assess the reaction of key sectors (financial sector: stock market, exchange rate, inflation; energy sector: oil and gas; real sector: economic growth rate) with regard to geopolitical shocks over the period September 2003–March 2024. We measure the reaction of European economies to global geopolitical risks, as well as risks related to geopolitical events and threats. To this end, we adopted the ARDL model and bound tests to estimate the effects of geopolitical risks in the short and long terms. Our findings present two interesting results. First, geopolitical risks can reduce economic growth and provoke depreciation of the euro. Second, geopolitical tensions can increase inflation and put pressure on Brent oil and gas prices in Europe. The European stock market seems more resilient to geopolitical shocks, however. Finally, adverse geopolitical events are also associated with greater economic and political uncertainty in Europe.

Strategic dilemmas for the redevelopment of a former airport in Athens, Greece

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to address basic dilemmas of the strategic interventions policy delivery within the framework of spatial governance and the recent financial and social conjuncture in Europe. The related research concerns the case of the former ‘Hellinikon’ airport area in Athens. Because of the unfavourable economic situation and the inability to form an effective spatial governance framework, the state retreated and the initiative was taken by the private sector, shaping the frame for a fragmented ‘spatial fix’ of global economic activity.

The formation of a “model city in the Anatolian steppes”: Leapfrogging effects of spatial fix in Eskişehir, Turkey

AbstractThe prevalence of neoliberalism has produced varied effects on cities ranging from rapid growth to gradual disempowerment. Instead of considering neoliberal urbanization as a fixed, predetermined process, I discuss the possibility of leapfrogging in urban repositioning. Particularly, I examine Eskişehir's repositioning process in response to disempowerment, placing particular emphasis on the “spatial fix.” Rather than being passive recipients of neoliberalization, local ruling elites might develop political agency to not only counter but also capitalize on disempowerment. To overcome financial and political constraints vital for the spatial fix, Eskişehir's mayor leveraged multiscalar networking strategies and symbolic revitalizations at particular historical conjunctures. Accordingly, Eskişehir's municipality, ruled by the center‐left opposition party, sought to redefine the city as a stronghold of secularism with the claims of Europeanization and modernization. They introduced the “Eskişehir model” as a contrasting narrative to the ruling AKP's urban vision rooted in Islamist‐nationalist agenda. These mechanisms reveal that ideological‐political clashes at the national level can serve as windows of opportunity for local ruling elites to counter disempowerment. As the ethnographic research shows, these mechanisms had leapfrogging effects not only on repositioning and fostering political power but also dissembling existing inequalities, disparities, and segregation beneath the celebrated Eskişehir model.

Different factors affecting the real estate market in the Egyptian context

Purpose Real estate projects are capital-intensive and deeply intertwined with economic factors, making them subject to various influences besides local housing needs. This paper aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, examining real estate cycles, driving factors and their correlation and scale of impact. Design/methodology/approach The study conducts a literature review to explore real estate cycles and their driving factors, along with the relationship between real estate and macroeconomic cycles. It then delves into the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, followed by a time series analysis that incorporates five key indicators: economic indicator, demand indicator, supply indicator, capital flow indicator and cost indicator over a 12-year interval (2012–2023), to examine short-term cycle factors, followed by correlation and multi-linear regression analysis to elucidate interrelations among these factors. Findings Through measuring and comparing the prementioned indicators with different economic and social events, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the macroeconomic environment and the real estate cycle in Egypt. Where demand has been found to be more sensitive and directly affected by macroeconomic factors than the supply. With the economic factor as the factor with the highest impact, especially in times of economic fluctuations, the impact has been immediate and short-term. These findings support the idea that the demand in Egypt is speculative, laying a threat of longer recession periods in the long term and having greater and more direct impact. Originality/value This paper contributes to the understanding of the Egyptian real estate market by integrating insights from real estate cycles, macroeconomics and specific market dynamics. The application of time series, correlation and multi-linear regression analysis provides a nuanced understanding of the interplay between several factors shaping the real estate cycle. Ultimately, the findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers involved in urban development planning, facilitating more informed and precise decision-making processes.