Bond Pricing Model Research Articles

The value of resilience bond in financing flood resilient infrastructures: a case study of Towyn

ABSTRACT As catastrophic events become increasingly frequent, infrastructure systems face rising challenges from the dynamic environment. Enhancing the resilience of the current infrastructure system in advance has emerged as an essential strategy for catastrophe preparedness. This study explores the novel concept of resilience bonds in the context of financing flood-resilient infrastructures, using the Towyn Flood as a case study. It examines the mechanism of resilience bonds in developing infrastructure capable of withstanding floods, analysing the resilience bond value and the factors influencing its valuation. Simulation results indicate that resilience bonds can significantly extend investment resources, enhancing flood resilience and reducing unforeseen flooding risks. A sensitivity analysis provides detailed insights into how various factors impact the resilience bond's pricing model. These findings offer critical guidance for decision-makers considering the implementation of resilience bonds in flood-prone areas, highlighting their potential to improve infrastructure resilience against catastrophic events.

Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico

To study inflation expectations and associated risk premia in emerging bond markets, we provide estimates for Mexico based on an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for their liquidity risk. Beyond documenting the existence of large and weakly correlated liquidity premia in nominal and real bond prices, our results indicate that long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are well anchored close to the Bank of Mexico’s inflation target. Furthermore, Mexican inflation risk premia are larger and more volatile than those in Canada and the United States.

Decomposition of Disaster Region using Earthquake Parameter and STDM Distance: Catastrophe Bond Pricing Single Period

Investor interest in single-regional earthquake catastrophe bonds has the potential to decline in the future. To pique investor interest, disaster bond prices can be determined by decomposed disaster zones using seismic parameters and Space Time Depth Magnitude (STDM) distance. Therefore, this study aims to develop a Decomposition of Disaster Region Using Earthquake Parameters and STDM Distance on the Earthquake Catastrophe Bond Pricing (DECBP) model for a single period. The basic idea of developing the model is to observe earthquake characteristics in an area by clustering the area based on the Earthquake Disaster Risk Index (EDRI), earthquake parameters (earthquake magnitude and depth), and STDM distance. The research and development (R&D) methodology used in this work is pursued through the creation of a mathematical model for calculating the price of earthquake catastrophe bonds over a single period. The development stages carried out are regional decomposition modelling, payment functions modelling, distribution of extreme earthquake magnitude values modelling, prediction of interest rates and coupons, numerical simulations, and analysis of the effect of interest rates, coupons, and the amount of regional decomposition on earthquake bond prices. Interest rates, coupons, and the number of regional decompositions that affect bond prices for earthquake events are the results of the analysis of the model that's been developed. The resulting model in this study is expected to assist the Super Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in determining the price of earthquake bonds and serve as a reference for future researchers developing models for the price of earthquake catastrophe bonds.

Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy

We assess the impact of large-scale asset purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing (QE), conducted by Sveriges Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific safety premia, we find that Sveriges Riksbank’s bond purchases raised inflation and short-rate expectations, lowered nominal and real term premia and inflation risk premia, and increased nominal bond safety premia, suggestive of signaling, portfolio rebalance, and safe asset scarcity effects. Furthermore, we document spillover effects of ECB’s QE programs on Swedish bond markets that are similar to the Swedish QE effects only after controlling for exchange rate fluctuations, highlighting the importance of exchange rate dynamics in the transmission of QE spillover effects.

Earthquake Bond Pricing Model Involving the Inconstant Event Intensity and Maximum Strength

Traditional insurance’s earthquake contingency costs are insufficient for earthquake funding due to extreme differences from actual losses. The earthquake bond (EB) links insurance to capital market bonds, enabling higher and more sustainable earthquake funding, but challenges persist in pricing EBs. This paper presents zero-coupon and coupon-paying EB pricing models involving the inconstant event intensity and maximum strength of extreme earthquakes under the risk-neutral pricing measure. Focusing on extreme earthquakes simplifies the modeling and data processing time compared to considering infinite earthquake frequency occurring over a continuous time interval. The intensity is accommodated using the inhomogeneous Poisson process, while the maximum strength is modeled using extreme value theory (EVT). Furthermore, we conducted model experiments and variable sensitivity analyses on EB prices using earthquake data from Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Authority from 2008 to 2021. The sensitivity analysis results show that choosing inconstant intensity rather than a constant one implies significant EB price differences, and the maximum strength distribution based on EVT matches the data distribution. The presented model and its experiments can guide EB issuers in setting EB prices. Then, the variable sensitivities to EB prices can be used by investors to choose EB according to their risk tolerance.

Discounting the Distant Future: What Do Historical Bond Prices Imply about the Long-Term Discount Rate?

We present a thorough empirical study on real interest rates by also including risk aversion through the introduction of the market price of risk. From the viewpoint of complex systems science and its multidisciplinary approach, we use the theory of bond pricing to study the long-term discount rate to estimate the rate when taking historical US and UK data, and to further contribute to the discussion about the urgency of climate action in the context of environmental economics and stochastic methods. Century-long historical records of 3-month bonds, 10-year bonds, and inflation allow us to estimate real interest rates for the UK and the US. Real interest rates are negative about a third of the time and the real yield curves are inverted more than a third of the time, sometimes by substantial amounts. This rules out most of the standard bond-pricing models, which are designed for nominal rates that are assumed to be positive. We, therefore, use the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model, which allows negative rates and gives a good match to inversions of the yield curve. We derive the discount function using the method of Fourier transforms and fit it to the historical data. The estimated long-term discount rate is 1.7% for the UK and 2.2% for the US. The value of 1.4% used by Stern is less than a standard deviation from our estimated long-run return rate for the UK, and less than two standard deviations of the estimated value for the US. All of this once more reinforces the need for immediate and substantial spending to combat climate change.

Lie Symmetry Analysis for the Fractal Bond-Pricing Model of Mathematical Finance

The classical bond-pricing models, as important financial tools, show strong vitality in bond pricing. However, these models also expose their theoretical defects, which leads to inconsistencies with the actual observation results and usually causes the theoretical prices of bonds to be lower than the actual market prices in the financial market. In order to change this situation, considering that the price change of the underlying is regarded as a fractal transmission system, the fractal derivative is introduced into the bond-pricing equation. In order to solve the fractal bond-pricing equation, we first convert it into an equivalent equation by using a fractal two-scale transform. Only in this case can we start to study it by means of the Lie symmetry analysis method. Then the geometric vector fields, the symmetry reductions, and the exact solution to the equations are obtained. Furthermore, the dynamic behaviors of the fractal bond-pricing equation are discussed. The results show that the fractal dimension bond-pricing formula can better explain price changes in the capital market than the classical one. That is to say, the classical bond-pricing equation is only a special case of the fractal-bond pricing equation, which makes up for the defect that the theoretical bond price given by the classical bond-pricing equation is often lower than the actual market price. The results of this paper provide a basis for bond pricing in the financial market in order to seek a more appropriate and real price.

Predicting the Non-Return of Chonsei Lease Deposits in the Republic of Korea

Chonsei, a Korean housing lease system, enables landlords to acquire direct housing purchase funds without mortgages and offers tenants a cost-effective rental option. However, public concerns have arisen about potential landlord defaults, causing financial distress for tenants. This study examined the risk of non-return of the Chonsei deposit and developed a default prediction model using Chonsei contract data from the Korea Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation. Starting with the components from Merton’s bond pricing model, we included variables that reflect contract-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and the Korean Chonsei practices. The findings revealed that higher house price volatility, elevated debt-to-house value, and risk-free interest rates positively correlate with non-return risk. Meanwhile, certain factors, such as longer remaining maturity, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and rising market Chonsei price trends, demonstrated negative correlations with non-return risk. Consequently, a logistic regression-based default prediction model, with eight risk factors that predict the deposit non-return, was suggested. By identifying risk factors and predicting the non-return risk of deposits, this study contributes to an informed policy decision in planning and practicing Chonsei contracts in the Korean housing market.

ESG rating confusion and bond spreads

This paper investigates the influence of ESG rating confusion on bond spreads, an area of growing importance in sustainable finance. Despite the recognition of ESG rating confusion, their effects on the bond market remain less explored. Leveraging a corporate bond pricing model, we reveal that ESG rating confusion widens the bond spread. Analyzing data from China, we find that both primary and secondary bond markets are affected, with the latter experiencing a more significant impact. Our study emphasizes the role of information asymmetry and investor preferences, outweighing the issuer’s financial position in driving these effects. Furthermore, we identify environmental and weighting inconsistencies as crucial sources of ESG rating confusion. The findings underscore the necessity of a standardized ESG rating system to enhance investor confidence and support ESG-related project financing. A cohesive rating approach among agencies correlates with narrower bond spreads, thereby fostering bond market efficiency and promoting ESG investment practices.

A Regional Catastrophe Bond Pricing Model and Its Application in Indonesia’s Provinces

The national scale of catastrophic losses risk linked to state catastrophe bonds (SCB) is enormous. It can reduce investors’ interest in buying them because the capital required and the loss probability are also significant. To overcome this, the SCB can be made on a smaller regional scale, known as a regional catastrophe bond (RCB). Through RCBs, the catastrophic loss risk investors bear becomes smaller, which can increase investors’ interest in buying them. Unfortunately, RCB issuance faced a fundamental obstacle, where its complex pricing model needed further study. Therefore, this study aims to model it. The model uniquely involves the inflation rate modeled using the Fisher equation and the nonbinary scheme of coupon and redemption value payments modeled by a compound Poisson process. In addition, the model is applied to Indonesia’s catastrophe data, resulting in all provinces’ RCB price estimation and the effects of several variables on RCB price. This research can guide the RCB pricing process of the country’s regions. The estimated RCB prices can be used by Indonesia’s government if RCBs are to be issued one day. Finally, the effects of the inflation rate, catastrophe intensity, and geographical location on RCB prices can guide investors in selecting bond portfolios.

A Terminal Condition in Linear Bond-pricing Under Symmetry Invariance

In this paper, we examine a general bond-pricing model with respect to its solutions that satisfy a given terminal condition. Firstly, we obtain reversible transformations that change the model to a classical and well known partial differential equation, the one dimensional heat equation. We further show that the terminal condition is transformed into a nonsmooth initial condition. The important result that emerges is that the Lie symmetries are adopted to solve the equation subject to its unique configuration of initial conditions.

A Bond Pricing Model with Credit Migration Risk: Different Upgrade and Downgrade Thresholds

A Bond Pricing Model with Credit Migration Risk: Different Upgrade and Downgrade Thresholds

The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market

Portfolio diversification is as important to debt management as it is to asset management. In this paper, we focus on diversification of sovereign debt issuance through greater reliance on inflation-indexed bonds for a representative emerging economy, Colombia. Using an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of fixed-coupon and inflation-indexed bond prices, we account for inflation and liquidity risk premia and calculate the net benefit of issuing inflation-indexed bonds over nominal bonds. Our results suggest that the Colombian government could lower its funding costs by as much as 0.69 percent by increasing its issuance of inflation-indexed debt, in particular at long maturities.

Earthquake Catastrophe Bond Pricing Using Extreme Value Theory: A Mini-Review Approach

Earthquake catastrophe bond pricing models (ECBPMs) employ extreme value theory (EVT) to predict severe losses, although studies on EVT’s use in ECBPMs are still rare. Therefore, this study aimed to use a mini-review approach (MRA) to examine the use of EVT and identify the gaps and weaknesses in the methods or models developed. The MRA stages include planning, search and selection, analysis, and interpretation of the results. The selection results showed five articles regarding the application of EVT in ECBPMs. Furthermore, the analysis found the following: First, the generalized extreme value (GEV) could eliminate extreme data in a period. Second, the trigger model using two parameters is better than one, but the study did not discuss the joint distribution of the two parameters. Third, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) allows negative values. Fourth, Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) in-coupon modeling is less effective in depicting the real picture. This is because it has a constant volatility assumption and cannot describe jumps due to monetary policy. Based on these limitations, it is hoped that future studies can develop an ECBPM that reduces the moral hazard.

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Sovereign Bonds

The authors propose an approach to assess climate change’s impact on sovereign bonds by considering forward-looking climate forecasts and their economic impact and using those as overlays in a pricing model for sovereign bonds. The authors use outputs from climate models reviewed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change and published literature on the economic impact of rising temperatures, change in tropical cyclone activity, and coastal flooding caused by sea level rise. The authors improve on existing sovereign pricing models by considering sovereign segmentation into developed markets, emerging markets issuing bonds in local currency, and emerging markets issuing bonds in a hard currency. By passing climate change’s economic impacts through the pricing model, the authors can assess the relative pricing impact for each security. The authors also provide country-level climate risk scores and change in risk-neutral probability of default for each issuer. This is novel research and is likely to be improved over time as more practitioners start considering climate risks as financial risks.

A stochastic‐volatility equity‐price tree for pricing convertible bonds with endogenous firm values and default risks determined by the first‐passage default model

AbstractThis paper proposes a novel equity‐price‐tree‐based convertible bond (CB) pricing model based on the first‐passage default model under stochastic interest rates. By regarding equity values as down‐and‐out call options on firm values (FVs), at each tree node, we solve the implied FV and equity‐price volatility (EPV), and then endogenously settle the default probability (DP) and also the dilution effect subject to CB conversions with the implied FV and capital structure. Our model captures the stylized negative (positive) relationships between the stochastically evolving DP and FV or EP (EPV) that cannot be fully achieved by existing CB pricing models.

Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Interaction between Liquidity and Credit Risk

This study derives a liquidity and credit risk‐adjusted capital asset pricing model and investigates the model using the data set in China's corporate bond market. Our research shows that the channels through which liquidity risk affects corporate bond return are individual bond liquidity risk, the interaction between individual bond liquidity risk and market liquidity risk. The channels through which credit risk affects corporate bond return are individual bond credit risk, the interaction between individual bond credit risk and market credit risk. The main channel through which the interaction between liquidity risk and credit risk affects corporate bond return is the interaction between individual bond liquidity risk and market credit risk. The model reveals the impact mechanism of individual risk and market risk on bond return and explains why the interaction between liquidity risk and credit risk affects bond pricing.

APPROXIMATE SERIES SOLUTIONS OF A ONE-FACTOR TERM STRUCTURE MODEL FOR BOND PRICING

One-factor term structure model in finance and economic setups conveys the opinion that there exists only one Brownian process in the formulation of the short rate model as one source of randomness. To extend the theory, in this paper, we develop the approximate solution of a one-factor bond pricing model that can be used to obtain solutions of both nonlinear and multi-factor models and get applications of two proposed solution methods: Elzaki Adomian decomposition method (EADM) and Laplace Adomian decomposition solution method (LADM). We first obtain an efficient, reliable and approximate-analytical solution for a one-factor bond pricing model. We provide illustrative examples that are in good agreement when compared with those already in literature. The methods are very effective in the application being the modified version of the classical Elzaki, and Laplace transforms. Since our proposed methods are effective and efficient, we recommend academics and practitioners apply our proposed model to obtain solutions for some financial models, including both the multi-factor and nonlinear models.

The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty

We formulate a dynamic no-arbitrage asset pricing model for equities and corporate bonds, featuring time variation in both risk aversion and economic uncertainty. The joint dynamics among cash flows, macroeconomic fundamentals, and risk aversion accommodate both heteroskedasticity and non-Gaussianity. The model delivers measures of risk aversion and uncertainty at the daily frequency. We verify that equity variance risk premiums are very informative about risk aversion, whereas credit spreads and corporate bond volatility are highly correlated with economic uncertainty. Our model-implied risk premiums outperform standard instruments for predicting asset excess returns. Risk aversion is substantially correlated with consumer confidence measures and in early 2020 reacted more strongly to new COVID cases than did an uncertainty proxy. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.

Reversal effect and corporate bond pricing in China

This paper documents significant price reversal in Chinese corporate bonds using transaction data from 2008 to 2018. We contribute to the existing literature by constructing a reversal factor and proposing a new corporate bond pricing model. Corporate bonds generating lower returns in the past months outperform those generating higher past returns. The reversal profits are strongest in portfolios with around 9-month formation period and disappear when the formation period reaches 12 months. After controlling for bond rating, maturity, turnover, and trading volume, the reversal effects remain significant. We construct a reversal factor and propose a four-factor model by incorporating the new factor into the default-term two-factor bond pricing model plus the bond market factor. The proposed four-factor model captures systematic risk and reversal effect well and makes a significant marginal contribution to explaining the excess return of corporate bond portfolios.