Birth Cohort Analysis Research Articles

Association between child marriage and high blood glucose level in women: A birth cohort analysis

ObjectivesChild marriage prematurely forces girls (<18 years of age) to perform adult roles prior to physical and psychological maturity. Such precocious transitions to young adulthood can have consequences on their long-term health, however, limited work has examined such relationships to date. As such, this study examines whether child marriage is associated with the risk of having hyperglycemia, or high blood glucose, in adulthood. Study designObservational study using repeated cross-sectional data. MethodsUsing data from the 2015-16 and 2019-21 waves of the India National Family Health Survey, we matched 432,080 and 418,409 women, aged 20 to 49 years, by birth year and month to create birth cohorts. Fitting multivariable binomial and multinomial logistic models, we compared the odds of having hyperglycemia across groups by marriage age (i.e., before or after age 18 years) within respective birth cohorts. ResultsWe found that the adjusted odds of having high blood glucose among women married as children were 1.12 (95% CI: 1.07 – 1.16) times that of their peers married as adults in the full-sample. The adjusted relative risks of having blood glucose levels higher than normal but lower than diabetic and diabetic ranges were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04 – 1.14) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.15 – 1.31), respectively, in comparison to blood glucose within normal range. These results were persistent across sub-groups of different birth cohorts. ConclusionOur findings suggest that child marriage was associated with higher risk of having high blood glucose in women, later in life.

Exploring Prostate Cancer Incidence Trends and Age Change in Cancer Registration Areas of Jiangsu Province, China, 2009 to 2019.

(1) Background: Over the past few decades, Jiangsu Province, China, has witnessed a remarkable surge in the incidence of prostate cancer (PCa), accompanied by notable demographic shifts; (2) Methods: PCa data for Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 were obtained from the Jiangsu Cancer Registry. We calculated crude and age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs), average age at onset, and age-specific composition ratios. Standardization was performed based on the Segi's world population. Birth cohorts (1929-2019) were analyzed to assess PCa incidence by birth year. Trend analysis was conducted using the Joinpoint Regression Model, and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed. A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the average age at diagnosis and calendar years; (3) Results: The ASIRs of PCa in Jiangsu Province increased significantly, with an AAPC of 11.25% (95%CI: 10.09%, 12.42%) from 2009 to 2019. This increase was observed across all age groups, particularly among those aged 0-59 years. Birth cohort analysis revealed a rising trend with earlier birth years showing higher incidence, notably in the 1959 cohort. In rural areas, the age-standardized average age at onset of PCa decreased from 75.45 years in 2009 to 73.39 years in 2019, and the peak age group shifted from 75-79 years in 2009 to 70-74 years in 2019; (4) Conclusions: The rising incidence of PCa in Jiangsu Province, along with an increased proportion of cases in younger age groups, highlights the need for targeted interventions.

The Plasma Glucose Threshold Values Associated with Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Among Asian Indian Pregnant Women: MAASTHI Birth Cohort Analysis.

To assess the association of adverse pregnancy and infant outcomes with different cut-off levels of glucose intolerance during pregnancy in the MAASTHI cohort. Pregnant women (n = 1470) underwent Oral glucose tolerance test between 24 and 36 weeks using a 75-g oral glucose load, with plasma glucose estimations measured at fasting and two hours later. Follow-up was done within 72 hours of delivery for recording type of delivery, infant weight, mid-upper arm circumference, and skinfold thickness. The odds of having higher skinfold thickness (>90th percentile) were 43% higher (AOR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.18, 1.74) and the odds of being overweight at birth was 34% higher (AOR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.62) for every 1 standard deviation (9.9 mg/dL) increase in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in male infants. The odds of delivering via caesarean section were 45% higher in women with female foetus (1.45,95% CI 1.15,1.82) for every one SD (23.4 mg/dl) increase in 2-h post-load Glucose. The impact of maternal glucose levels on infant and maternal outcomes differed notably between sex of the child. Compared to female infants, male infants exhibited a stronger association with elevated risks for adverse outcomes, including higher infant weight and increased skinfold thickness.

Mortality from malignant mesothelioma in Italy. A birth-cohort analysis on the effect of the 1992 asbestos ban

Mortality from malignant mesothelioma in Italy. A birth-cohort analysis on the effect of the 1992 asbestos ban

Age-specific colorectal cancer incidence trends in Canada, 1971–2021

IntroductionColorectal cancer (CRC) incidence among adults younger than 50 years has increased in recent decades, leading to some advocating for lowering the age to start CRC screening. Here, we estimate age-specific trends in CRC incidence in Canada and changes in risk by birth cohort. MethodsCRC incidence data from 1971 to 2021 by province, sex, and five-year age group (35−64) were obtained from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and the Canadian Cancer Registry. Annual percent changes in age-specific or age-adjusted incidence rates were analyzed with joinpoint regression. Birth cohort effect was estimated with age-period-cohort models and reported as cohort incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with respect to the 1947–51 cohort. ResultsCRC incidence has increased among all age groups under 50 years, with the largest relative increases occurring in the youngest age group (35–39 years). Males and females had similar incidence trends, though males under age 50 had larger increases than females. The birth cohort analysis showed that males born since 1966 have a significantly higher risk than those born at any other time. ConclusionsThese results up to 2021 confirm and update reports that CRC incidence is increasing among adults under age 50 in Canada and that the youngest birth cohorts carry the highest risk. Future studies should assess the effectiveness of CRC screening in younger populations.

Great leap forward famine exposure and urban-rural migration convolute the modern prevalence of diabetes in China

BackgroundAlthough evidence from birth cohort analysis has indicated the metabolic risk of early-life exposure to the Great Leap Forward Famine (GLFF) in China, three confounding effects, including the exposure windows, aging, and geographical variations in famine severity, have been brought to debates for a decade. This study aimed to address these confounding effects and extensively examine how GLFF exposure is associated with diabetes risk in mid-to-late life and its interaction with urban-rural migration.MethodsData from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were analyzed with age-stratification and stepped wedge approaches. Weighted prevalence and multivariable logistic regression were used to investigate the effects of GLFF exposure and urban-rural migration on mid-to-late life diabetes risk and the interaction between GLFF exposure and urban-rural migration. Birth provinces were controlled as a fixed effect to account for variations in famine severity across provinces.ResultsCompared to those who were never exposed to GLFF, fetal GLFF exposure was associated with a higher risk of adult-onset diabetes after controlling for provinces, demographics, and health statuses. Yet, after adding the proxy of childhood growth environments into the model, fetal exposure to GLFF was not significantly associated with adult-onset diabetes risk (OR = 1.22, p = 0.10), compared to those who were never exposed to GLFF. Across the three age-stratification groups, static urban residents, in general, had a higher risk of diabetes compared to static rural residents. Interaction effects between GLFF exposure and urban-rural migration were insignificant across all three age-stratification groups.ConclusionFetal exposure to GLFF might have a traceable effect on adult-onset diabetes risk. Yet, the growth environment and urban lifestyle outweigh and further confound the impact of GLFF exposure on adult-onset diabetes risk.

Survey of hepatitis B virus infection for liver cancer screening in China: A population-based, cross-sectional study.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the primary cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. The target population for HCC screening comprises individuals who test positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). However, current data on the prevalence of HBV infection among individuals who are eligible for HCC screening in China are lacking. We aimed to assess the seroepidemiology of HBV infection among Chinese individuals eligible for HCC screening to provide the latest evidence for appropriate HCC screening strategies in China. Questionnaires including information of sex, age, ethnicity, marital status, educational level, source of drinking water, as well as smoking and alcohol consumption history and serum samples were collected from females aged 45-64 years and males aged 35-64 years in 21 counties from 4 provinces in eastern and central China between 2015 and 2023. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay methods were used to detect the serum HBV marker HBsAg. A total of 603,082 individuals were enrolled, and serum samples were collected for analysis from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2023. The prevalence of HBsAg positive in the study population was 5.23% (31,528/603,082). The prevalence of HBsAg positive was greater in males than in females (5.60% [17,660/315,183] vs . 4.82% [13,868/287,899], χ 2 =187.52, P <0.0001). The elderly participants exhibited a greater prevalence of HBV infection than younger participants (χ 2 =41.73, P <0.0001). Birth cohort analysis revealed an overall downward trend in HBV prevalence for both males and females. Individuals born in more recent cohorts exhibited a lower prevalence of HBV infection as compared to those born earlier. The current prevalence of HBV infection remains above 5% in populations eligible for HCC screening in China. Further efforts should be made to increase the accessibility of HCC screening among individuals with HBV infection.

All-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in the population of a large Italian area contaminated by perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (1980–2018)

BackgroundPer- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are associated with many adverse health conditions. Among the main effects is carcinogenicity in humans, which deserves to be further clarified. An evident association has been reported for kidney cancer and testicular cancer. In 2013, a large episode of surface, ground and drinking water contamination with PFAS was uncovered in three provinces of the Veneto Region (northern Italy) involving 30 municipalities and a population of about 150,000. We report on the temporal evolution of all-cause mortality and selected cause-specific mortality by calendar period and birth cohort in the local population between 1980 and 2018.MethodsThe Italian National Institute of Health pre-processed and made available anonymous data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics death certificate archives for residents of the provinces of Vicenza, Padua and Verona (males, n = 29,629; females, n = 29,518) who died between 1980 and 2018. Calendar period analysis was done by calculating standardised mortality ratios using the total population of the three provinces in the same calendar period as reference. The birth cohort analysis was performed using 20–84 years cumulative standardised mortality ratios. Exposure was defined as being resident in one of the 30 municipalities of the Red area, where the aqueduct supplying drinking water was fed by the contaminated groundwater.ResultsDuring the 34 years between 1985 (assumed as beginning date of water contamination) and 2018 (last year of availability of cause-specific mortality data), in the resident population of the Red area we observed 51,621 deaths vs. 47,731 expected (age- and sex-SMR: 108; 90% CI: 107–109). We found evidence of raised mortality from cardiovascular disease (in particular, heart diseases and ischemic heart disease) and malignant neoplastic diseases, including kidney cancer and testicular cancer.ConclusionsFor the first time, an association of PFAS exposure with mortality from cardiovascular disease was formally demonstrated. The evidence regarding kidney cancer and testicular cancer is consistent with previously reported data.

Mortality related to HCV and other chronic liver diseases in Veneto (Italy), 2008-2021: Changes in trends and age-period-cohort effects.

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents on mortality related to chronic liver diseases (CLD). Age-standardized mortality rates were computed based on CLD as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and as any mention in death certificates (multiple causes of death-MCOD). Time trends in age-standardized mortality rates were investigated using generalized estimation equation models. Additionally, we conducted age, period, and birth cohort (APC) analyses on CLD-related mortality associated with alcohol and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Between 2008 and 2021, among residents in the Veneto region (Northeastern Italy) aged ≥35 years, there were 20 409 deaths based on the UCOD and 30 069 deaths based on MCOD from all CLD. We observed a 4% annual decline in age-standardized MCOD-based mortality throughout 2008-2021, with minor peaks corresponding to COVID-19 epidemic waves. Starting in 2016, the decline in HCV-related mortality accelerated further (p < .001). A peak in HCV-related mortality in the 1963-1967 birth cohort was observed, which levelled off by the end of the study period. Mortality related to alcoholic liver disease declined at a slower pace, becoming the most common aetiology mentioned in death certificates. The study demonstrates a significant decrease in HCV-related mortality at the population level in Italy with the introduction of DAAs. Continuous monitoring of MCOD data is warranted to determine if this favourable trend will continue. Further studies utilizing additional health records are needed to clarify the role of other CLD etiologies.

Vaccination Coverage Among Adolescents Aged 13-17 Years - National Immunization Survey-Teen, United States, 2022.

Three vaccines are routinely recommended for adolescents to prevent pertussis, meningococcal disease, and cancers caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). CDC analyzed data from the 2022 National Immunization Survey-Teen for 16,043 adolescents aged 13-17 years to assess vaccination coverage. Birth cohort analyses were conducted to assess trends in vaccination coverage by age 13 years (i.e., before the 13th birthday) and by age 14 years (i.e., before the 14th birthday) among adolescents who were due for routine vaccination before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cross-sectional analysis was used to assess coverage estimates among adolescents aged 13-17 years. In 2022, vaccination coverage by age 14 years among adolescents born in 2008 continued to lag that of earlier birth cohorts and varied by sociodemographic factors and access to health care compared with coverage among earlier birth cohorts. Vaccination coverage by age 13 years among adolescents born in 2009 was similar to coverage estimates obtained before the COVID-19 pandemic. Among all adolescents aged 13-17 years, 2022 vaccination coverage levels did not differ from 2021 levels; however, initiation of the HPV vaccination series decreased among those who were insured by Medicaid. Coverage with ≥1 dose of tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccine and ≥1 dose meningococcal conjugate vaccine was high and stable (around 90%). Providers should review adolescent vaccination records, especially among those born in 2008 and those in populations eligible for the Vaccines for Children program, to ensure adolescents are up to date with all recommended vaccines.

Trends and sex-specific incidence of upper urinary tract cancer in Taiwan: A birth cohort study.

Taiwan has one of the highest incidences of upper tract urothelial cancer (UTUC) worldwide, especially in women; however, no nationwide, long-term follow-up study has evaluated this. We investigated the incidence of UTUC in Taiwan using data from the national population-based Taiwan Cancer Registry database (1985-2019). We divided the birth cohort into nine 5-year age groups and calculated the age-specific incidence for these groups according to the corresponding birth years. The average annual percent change in the incidence of renal pelvis cancer from 1985 to 2019 showed sex-specific differences, with 3.5% and 5.3% increases in the incidences in men and women, respectively. The age-specific incidence rate for renal pelvis cancer among women showed a gradual increase in the group with older women as well as an increase over time in each age group. The results of a birth cohort analysis revealed that younger cohorts had higher incidence rates of renal pelvis cancer than older cohorts did. We demonstrated that the incidence of UTUC is unusually high among older Taiwanese women and that younger cohorts have a high risk of UTUC than older cohorts.

Gender Disparities in Blood Pressure and the Role of Body Mass Index: A Birth Cohort Analysis in China

BackgroundThe slow decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and the stagnant or increasing hypertension prevalence in low- and middle-income countries necessitate investigation. Evolving gender disparities suggested that male cardiovascular health disadvantage may be preventable, offering potential for enhancing population cardiovascular health. Despite global body mass index (BMI) increases, its role in shaping the gender disparities remains underexplored.ObjectiveThis study investigated the birth cohort dynamics of gender disparities in systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) in China, one of the world's largest low- and middle-income countries, and explored the potential role of BMI in explaining the changing gender disparities.MethodsData from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1991–2015) were analyzed using multilevel growth-curve models to estimate gender- and cohort-specific SBP/DBP trajectories among individuals born between 1950 and 1975.ResultsMen had higher SBP and DBP than women at the sample’s mean age of 41.7 years. The gender disparities in SBP and DBP increased with each successive one-year cohort from 1950 to 1975 by 0.14 mm Hg and 0.09 mm Hg, respectively. Adjusting for BMI reduced the increasing gender disparities in SBP and DBP by 31.9% and 34.4%, respectively.ConclusionChinese men experienced a greater increase in SBP/DBP across successive cohorts compared to women. The increasing gender disparities in SBP/DBP were partially attributable to a greater BMI increase across cohorts among men. Given these findings, prioritizing interventions that aim to reduce BMI, particularly among men, could potentially alleviate the burden of CVD in China through lowering SBP/DBP.

Are childhood factors predictive of adult health literacy? A longitudinal birth cohort analysis

Health literacy (HL), defined as the ability of an individual to understand and appraise health information to make informed decisions on their health, helps maintain and improve one's health and thus reduce the use of healthcare services. There is a recognised global effort to address insufficient HL in early life and understand how HL develops. This study examined the association of a range of factors including educational, speech and language ability, health and healthcare engagement, sleep problems, mental health, demographic, environmental, and maternal factors at different childhood stages (from 5 years to 11 years) with later adult HL at age 25. HL was measured using a HL ordinal score (insufficient, limited, or sufficient) derived from the European Literacy Survey Questionnaire-short version (HLS-EU-Q16) within a large UK based birth cohort (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children: ALSPAC study). Univariate proportional odds logistic regression models for the probability of having higher levels of HL were developed.Results of analysis of 4248 participants showed that poorer speech and language ability (aged 9 years, OR 0.18 95% CI 0.04 to 0.78), internalising in child (age 11 years, OR 0.62 95% CI 0.5 to 0.78), child depression (age 9 years, OR 0.67 95% CI 0.52 to 0.86), and the presence of maternal depression (child age 5, OR 0.80 95% CI 0.66 to 0.96), reduced the odds of sufficient HL when adult. Our results suggest some useful markers to identify children at potential risk of low HL that could be targeted for research into future interventions within school settings, for example, child's speech and language capability. In addition, this study identified child and maternal mental health as factors associated with later development of limited HL and future research should consider what potential mechanisms might explain this link.

Interpregnancy weight change as a potential risk factor for large-for-gestational-age infants: the Japan Environment and Children’s Study

Objective This study aimed to estimate the impact of interpregnancy weight change from the first to the second pregnancy on the risk of infants being large for gestational age (LGA). Methods This nationwide prospective birth cohort analysis included 3245 women who delivered their first two live singletons between 2011 and 2014. Interpregnancy weight change was calculated as the difference between the prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) of the first and second pregnancies. LGA infants were compared among three interpregnancy weight change groups: weight loss (a BMI loss >1 unit), weight gain (a BMI gain >1 unit), and stable weight (BMI maintained within − 1 to <1 unit). Interpregnancy weight change was assessed in mothers with a BMI <25 and ≥25 kg/m2, and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for LGA infants by multiple logistic regression. Results The incidence of LGA infants was 8.6% (279 out of 3245). Compared with the stable weight group, interpregnancy weight gain was associated with an increased risk of infants being LGA (adjusted OR: 1.69, 95% confidence interval: 1.21–2.36) in the normal BMI (<25 kg/m2) group. In contrast, in the overweight/obese BMI (≥25 kg/m2) group, interpregnancy BMI was not a significant risk factor for LGA infants. Conclusions Accurate risk stratification using interpregnancy BMI could assist the clinical management of women with a normal BMI who are at risk of delivering LGA infants.

The Changing Face of Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia 2A: From Symptom-Based to Preventative Medicine.

Early genetic association studies yielded too high risk estimates for multiple endocrine neoplasia (MEN2A), suggesting a need for extended surgery. The objective was to delineate temporal changes in MEN2A presentation by birth cohort analyses. Birth cohort analyses (10-year increments; ≤1950 to 2011-2020) of carriers of rearranged during transfection (RET) mutations who underwent surgery for MEN2A. Included in this study were 604 carriers (155 index, 445 nonindex, 4 additional patients), with 237 carriers harboring high-risk mutations, 165 carriers moderate-high risk mutations, and 202 carriers low-moderate risk mutations. With increasing recency of birth cohorts, there was a continual decline in index patients from 41-74% to 0% (P < .001) and of medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) from 96-100% to 0-33% (P < .001). Node metastases diminished from 62-70% to 0% (P ≤ .001; high and low-moderate risk mutations), whereas biochemical cure after thyroidectomy surged from 17-33% to 100% (P ≤ .019; high and low-moderate mutations). Surgical interventions for MEN2A-related tumors were performed increasingly earlier, causing median carrier age to fall: from 51-63 to 3-5 years at thyroidectomy (P < .001); from 46-51 to 24-25 years at first adrenalectomy (P ≤ .013; high and moderate-high risk mutations); and from 43.5-66 to 16.5-32 years at parathyroidectomy. MTC diameters were more effectively decreased from 14-32 to 1-4 mm (P ≤ 002) than pheochromocytoma diameters (nonsignificant). These insights into MEN2A presentation, adjusted by birth year, illustrate the shift from reactive to preventative medicine, enabling less extensive risk-reducing surgery.

Emission of Industrial Air Pollution and Mortality Due to Respiratory Diseases: A Birth Cohort Study in Poland.

Air pollution is a major risk factor for public health worldwide, but evidence linking this environmental problem with the mortality of children in Central Europe is limited. To investigate the relationship between air pollution due to the emission of industry-related particulate matter and mortality due to respiratory diseases under one year of age. A retrospective birth cohort analysis of the dataset including 2,277,585 children from all Polish counties was conducted, and the dataset was matched with 248 deaths from respiratory diseases under one year of age. Time to death during the first 365 days of life was used as a dependent variable. Harmful emission was described as total particle pollution (TPP) from industries. The survival analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model for the emission of TPP at the place of residence of the mother and child, adjusted individual characteristics, demographic factors, and socioeconomic status related to the contextual level. Infants born in areas with extremely high emission of TPP had a significantly higher risk of mortality due to respiratory diseases: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.781 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.175, 2.697], p = 0.006, compared with those born in areas with the lowest emission levels. This effect was persistent when significant factors were adjusted at individual and contextual levels (HR = 1.959 [95% CI: 1.058, 3.628], p = 0.032). The increased risk of mortality was marked between the 50th and 150th days of life, coinciding with the highest exposure to TPP. The emission of TPP from industries is associated with mortality due to respiratory diseases under one year of age. A considerable proportion of children's deaths could be prevented in Poland, especially in urban areas, if air pollution due to the emission of particle pollution is reduced.

Long-Term Risk for Mood and Anxiety Disorders After Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury: A Population-Based, Birth Cohort Analysis.

To determine whether exposure to traumatic brain injury (TBI) before 10 years of age is associated with development of a mood or anxiety disorder by 25 years of age, and whether sex or injury severity influences this risk. Olmsted County, Minnesota. A total of 5518 persons born from January 1, 1976, through December 31, 1982. Population-based, birth cohort study. Children sustaining TBI before 10 years of age (index date) were confirmed by manual record review and classified by injury severity using the Mayo Classification System. Each TBI case was age- and sex-matched to 2 referents from the same birth cohort without a history of TBI at the index date. Cox proportional hazards models were fit to compare the risk of a subsequent clinically diagnosed mood or anxiety disorder by 25 years of age between TBI cases and referents. Separate analysis was performed stratified by sex and injury severity. Incidence of mood and anxiety disorders determined through clinical diagnostic codes and manual record review. The study included 562 children (238 females [42.3%] and 324 males [57.7%]) with TBI before 10 years of age (mean [SD] age at TBI: 4.7 [2.8] years). At least 1 mood or anxiety disorder was diagnosed for 115 persons with TBI and 215 referents. No statistically significant association existed between childhood TBI status and anxiety disorder (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.71-1.43]; P = .97) or mood disorder (aHR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.92-1.47]; P = .21). However, females who sustained TBI had a significantly increased risk of a subsequently diagnosed mood disorder compared with age-matched female referents (aHR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.04-1.89]; P = .03). This study suggests that isolated TBI before 10 years of age is not significantly associated with an increased risk of anxiety or mood disorder by 25 years of age, though females may be at an increased risk.

Similar Time Trends of Hodgkin Lymphoma, Multiple Sclerosis, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) plays a role in the causation of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and multiple sclerosis (MS). A previous study showed that the time trends of mortality from Crohn's disease (CD) and MS shared striking similarities. It was hypothesized that such similarities would also involve the time trends of ulcerative colitis and HL. To compare the time trends of CD and UC with those of HL and MS in 6 different countries. Using the vital statistics of England, Canada, Netherlands, Scotland, Switzerland, and United States from 1951 to 2020, the time trends of mortality from these 4 diseases were compared. The time-dependent changes of death rates were subjected to a birth-cohort analysis. Similar trends were observed in all 6 countries. UC mortality rose among generations born during the nineteenth century and decreased among all generations born subsequently during the twentieth century. CD mortality was similarly characterized by a birth-cohort pattern with a rise and fall that were shifted by 20-30years towards more recent generations when compared to UC. The birth-cohort pattern of UC was matched by a similar pattern of HL, whereas the birth-cohort pattern of CD was matched by a similar pattern of MS. The similarities in the ubiquitous birth-cohort patterns of UC, CD, HL, and MS suggest that these 4 diseases share a common environmental risk factor. Such risk factor may be linked to EBV or its acquisition during an early period of a patient's lifetime.

Risk factors for development of long-term mood and anxiety disorder after pediatric traumatic brain injury: a population-based, birth cohort analysis

ABSTRACT Objectives The objective of this study was to identify characteristics associated with an increased risk of anxiety and mood disorder prior to 25 years of age, in children who sustained a traumatic brain injury (TBI) prior to age 10. Methods This population-based study identified 562 TBI cases from a 1976–1982 birth cohort in Olmsted County, Minnesota. TBI cases were manually confirmed and classified by injury severity. Separate Cox proportional hazards regression models were fit to estimate the association of TBI and secondary non-TBI related characteristics with the risk of a subsequent clinically determined anxiety or mood disorder. Multivariable-adjusted population attributable risk (PAR) estimates were calculated for TBI characteristics. Results Older age at initial TBI and extracranial injury at time of initial TBI were significantly associated with an increased risk of anxiety (adjusted HR [95% CI]: 1.33 [1.16, 1.52] per 1-year increase and 2.41 [1.26, 4.59]), respectively. Older age at initial TBI was significantly associated with an increased risk of a mood disorder (adjusted HR 1.17 [1.08–1.27]). Conclusion In individuals sustaining a TBI prior to age 10, age at injury greater than 5 years old was the largest contributor to development of a mood or anxiety disorder.

Long-term incidence in hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, role of Thorotrast?

We analyzed long-term incidence trends in liver cancer (including hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma) with an aim to interpret the changes in terms of known risk factors and hypothesize that historical exposure to Thorotrast, a radiographic contrast medium emitting alpha particles, has changed population rates. The NORDCAN database was used to collect cancer registry data from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE), which we used from 1953 (DK, FI and NO) and 1960 (SE) through 2019. Thorotrast, which caused a 100-fold risk of liver cancer was used in DK and SE, and probably also in FI between 1930 and 1950, but not in NO. The incidence trend for liver cancer showed a broad maximum at around 1980, most prominent and statistically significant in SE and DK men and women, and in all countries, a steadily increasing trend towards the end of follow-up. Incidence for NO was lower than for the other countries and the rates showed no peaking at around 1980. Birth cohort analysis identified a transient risk which could be dated to a period between 1930 and 1950 in countries other than NO. Considering a lag time between Thorotrast use and liver cancer appearance, the large incidence peak around 1980 in DK and DE was probably contributed by Thorotrast but considering the ecological nature of the findings, the association should be considered cautiously as hypothesis generating. The late increase in liver cancer risk is most likely lifestyle related and largely preventable.