Binary Neutron Star Merger Rate Research Articles

Joint gravitational wave-short GRB detection of binary neutron star mergers with existing and future facilities

ABSTRACT We explore the joint detection prospects of short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) and their gravitational wave (GW) counterparts by the current and upcoming high-energy GRB and GW facilities from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We consider two GW detector networks: (1) a four-detector network comprising LIGO Hanford, Livingston, Virgo, and Kagra (IGWN4) and (2) a future five-detector network including the same four detectors and LIGO India (IGWN5). For the sGRB detection, we consider existing satellites Fermi and Swift and the proposed all-sky satellite Daksha. Most of the events for the joint detection will be off-axis, hence, we consider a broad range of sGRB jet models predicting the off-axis emission. Also, to test the effect of the assumed sGRB luminosity function, we consider two different functions for one of the emission models. We find that for the different jet models, the joint sGRB and GW detection rates for Fermi and Swift with IGWN4 (IGWN5) lie within 0.07–0.62 yr−1 0.8–4.0 yr−1) and 0.02–0.14 yr−1 (0.15–1.0 yr−1), respectively, when the BNS merger rate is taken to be 320 Gpc−3 yr−1. With Daksha, the rates increase to 0.2–1.3 yr−1 (1.3–8.3 yr−1), which is 2–9 times higher than the existing satellites. We show that such a mission with higher sensitivity will be ideal for detecting a higher number of fainter events observed off-axis or at a larger distance. Thus, Daksha will boost the joint detections of sGRB and GW, especially for the off-axis events. Finally, we find that our detection rates with optimal SNRs are conservative, and noise in GW detectors can increase the rates further.

The short gamma-ray burst population in a quasi-universal jet scenario

We present a model of the short gamma-ray burst (SGRB) population under a ‘quasi-universal jet’ scenario in which jets can differ somewhat in their on-axis peak prompt emission luminosity, Lc, but share a universal angular luminosity profile, ℓ(θv) = L(θv)/Lc, as a function of the viewing angle, θv. The model was fitted, through a Bayesian hierarchical approach inspired by gravitational wave (GW) population analyses, to three observed SGRB samples simultaneously: the Fermi/GBM sample of SGRBs with spectral information available in the catalogue (367 events); a flux-complete sample of 16 Swift/BAT SGRBs that are also detected by the GBM and have a measured redshift; and a sample of SGRBs with a binary neutron star (BNS) merger counterpart, which only includes GRB 170817A at present. Particular care was put into modelling selection effects. The resulting model, which reproduces the observations, favours a narrow jet ‘core’ with half-opening angle θc = 2.1−1.4+2.4 deg (uncertainties hereon refer to 90% credible intervals from our fiducial ‘full sample’ analysis) whose peak luminosity, as seen on-axis, is distributed as a power law, p(Lc) ∝ Lc−A with A = 3.2−0.4+0.7, above a minimum isotropic-equivalent luminosity, Lc⋆ = 5−2+11 × 1051 erg s−1. For viewing angles larger than θc, the luminosity profile scales as a single power law, l ∝ θv−αL with αL = 4.7−1.4+1.2, with no evidence of a break, despite the model allowing for it. While the model implies an intrinsic ‘Yonetoku’ correlation between L and the peak photon energy, Ep, of the spectral energy distribution, its slope is somewhat shallower, Ep ∝ L0.4 ± 0.2, than the apparent one, and the normalisation is offset towards larger Ep due to selection effects. The implied local rate density of SGRBs (regardless of the viewing angle) is between about one hundred up to several thousand events per cubic gigaparsec per year, in line with the BNS merger rate density inferred from GW observations. Based on the model, we predict 0.2 to 1.3 joint GW+SGRB detections per year by the advanced GW detector network and Fermi/GBM during the O4 observing run.

Can LIGO Detect Nonannihilating Dark Matter?

Dark matter (DM) from the galactic halo can accumulate in neutron stars and transmute them into sub-2.5M_{⊙} black holes if the dark matter particles are heavy, stable, and have interactions with nucleons. We show that nondetection of gravitational waves from mergers of such low-mass black holes can constrain the interactions of nonannihilating dark matter particles with nucleons. We find benchmark constraints with LIGO O3 data, viz., σ_{χn}≥O(10^{-47}) cm^{2} for bosonic DM with m_{χ}∼PeV (or m_{χ}∼GeV, if they can Bose-condense) and ≥O(10^{-46}) cm^{2} for fermionic DM with m_{χ}∼10^{3} PeV. These bounds depend on the priors on DM parameters and on the currently uncertain binary neutron star merger rate density. However, with increased exposure by the end of this decade, LIGO will probe cross sections that are many orders of magnitude below the neutrino floor and completely test the dark matter solution to missing pulsars in the Galactic center, demonstrating a windfall science case for gravitational wave detectors as probes of particle dark matter.

Unpacking Merger Jets: A Bayesian Analysis of GW170817, GW190425 and Electromagnetic Observations of Short Gamma-Ray Bursts

We present a novel fully Bayesian analysis to constrain short gamma-ray burst (sGRB) jet structures associated with cocoon, wide-angle, and simple top-hat jet models, as well as the binary neutron star (BNS) merger rate. These constraints are made given the distance and inclination information from GW170817, observed flux of GRB 170817A, observed rate of sGRBs detected by Swift, and the neutron star merger rate inferred from LIGO’s first and second observing runs. A separate analysis is conducted where a fitted sGRB luminosity function is included to provide further constraints. The jet structure models are further constrained using the observation of GW190425, and we find that the assumption that it produced a GRB 170817–like sGRB which went undetected due to the jet geometry is consistent with previous observations. We find and quantify evidence for low-luminosity and wide-angle jet structuring in the sGRB population, independently from afterglow observations, with log Bayes factors of 0.45–0.55 for such models when compared to a classical top-hat jet. Slight evidence is found for a Gaussian jet structure model over all others when the fitted luminosity function is provided, producing log Bayes factors of 0.25–0.9 ± 0.05 when compared to the other models. However, without considering GW190425 or the fitted luminosity function, the evidence favors a cocoon-like model with log Bayes factors of 0.14 ± 0.05 over the Gaussian jet structure. We provide new constraints to the BNS merger rates of 1–1300 Gpc−3 yr−1 or 2–680 Gpc−3 yr−1 when a fitted luminosity function is assumed.

New constraints on the Bray conservation-of-momentum natal kick model from multiple distinct observations

ABSTRACT Natal supernova kicks, the linear momentum compact remnants receive during their formation, are an essential part of binary population synthesis (BPS) models. Although these kicks are well supported by evidence, their underlying distributions and incorporation into BPS models are uncertain. In this work, we investigate the nature of natal kicks using a previously proposed analytical prescription where the strength of the kick is given by $v_\text{k}=\alpha \frac{m_\text{ejecta}}{m_\text{remnant}}+\beta \, \mathrm{km\, s}^{-1}$ , for free parameters α and β. We vary the free parameters over large ranges of possible values, comparing these synthetic populations simultaneously against four constraints: the merger rate of compact binary neutron star (BNS) systems, the period–eccentricity distribution of Galactic BNSs, the velocity distribution of single-star pulsars, and the likelihood for low ejecta mass supernovae to produce low-velocity kicks. We find that different samples of the parameter space satisfy each test, and only 1 per cent of the models satisfy all four constraints simultaneously. Although we cannot identify a single best kick model, we report $\alpha =115^{+40}_{-55}\, \mathrm{km\, s}^{-1}, \beta =15^{+10}_{-15}\, \mathrm{km\, s}^{-1}$ as the centre of the region of the parameter space that fulfils all of our constraints, and expect $\beta \ge 0\, \mathrm{km\, s}^{-1}$ as a further constraint. We also suggest further observations that will enable future refinement of the kick model. A sensitive test for the kick model will be the redshift evolution of the BNS merger rate since this is effectively a direct measure of the delay-time distribution for mergers. For our best-fitting values, we find that the peak of the BNS merger rate is the present day.

Population of Merging Compact Binaries Inferred Using Gravitational Waves through GWTC-3

We report on the population properties of compact binary mergers inferred from gravitational-wave observations of these systems during the first three LIGO-Virgo observing runs. The Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 3 (GWTC-3) contains signals consistent with three classes of binary mergers: binary black hole, binary neutron star, and neutron star–black hole mergers. We infer the binary neutron star merger rate to be between 10 and 1700 Gpc−3 yr−1 and the neutron star–black hole merger rate to be between 7.8 and 140 Gpc−3 yr−1, assuming a constant rate density in the comoving frame and taking the union of 90% credible intervals for methods used in this work. We infer the binary black hole merger rate, allowing for evolution with redshift, to be between 17.9 and 44 Gpc−3 yr−1 at a fiducial redshift (z=0.2). The rate of binary black hole mergers is observed to increase with redshift at a rate proportional to (1+z)κ with κ=2.9−1.8+1.7 for z≲1. Using both binary neutron star and neutron star–black hole binaries, we obtain a broad, relatively flat neutron star mass distribution extending from 1.2−0.2+0.1 to 2.0−0.3+0.3M⊙. We confidently determine that the merger rate as a function of mass sharply declines after the expected maximum neutron star mass, but cannot yet confirm or rule out the existence of a lower mass gap between neutron stars and black holes. We also find the binary black hole mass distribution has localized over- and underdensities relative to a power-law distribution, with peaks emerging at chirp masses of 8.3−0.5+0.3 and 27.9−1.8+1.9M⊙. While we continue to find that the mass distribution of a binary’s more massive component strongly decreases as a function of primary mass, we observe no evidence of a strongly suppressed merger rate above approximately 60M⊙, which would indicate the presence of a upper mass gap. Observed black hole spins are small, with half of spin magnitudes below χi≈0.25. While the majority of spins are preferentially aligned with the orbital angular momentum, we infer evidence of antialigned spins among the binary population. We observe an increase in spin magnitude for systems with more unequal-mass ratio. We also observe evidence of misalignment of spins relative to the orbital angular momentum.22 MoreReceived 4 February 2022Revised 28 October 2022Accepted 19 December 2022DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.13.011048Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI.Published by the American Physical SocietyPhysics Subject Headings (PhySH)Research AreasGravitational wave sourcesGravitational wavesTechniquesGravitational wave detectionGravitation, Cosmology & Astrophysics

GLADE+ : an extended galaxy catalogue for multimessenger searches with advanced gravitational-wave detectors

ABSTRACT We present GLADE+, an extended version of the GLADE galaxy catalogue introduced in our previous paper for multimessenger searches with advanced gravitational-wave detectors. GLADE+ combines data from six separate but not independent astronomical catalogues: the GWGC, 2MPZ, 2MASS XSC, HyperLEDA, and WISExSCOSPZ galaxy catalogues, and the SDSS-DR16Q quasar catalogue. To allow corrections of CMB-frame redshifts for peculiar motions, we calculated peculiar velocities along with their standard deviations of all galaxies having B-band magnitude data within redshift z = 0.05 using the ‘Bayesian Origin Reconstruction from Galaxies’ formalism. GLADE+ is complete up to luminosity distance $d_L=47^{+4}_{-2}$ Mpc in terms of the total expected B-band luminosity of galaxies, and contains all of the brightest galaxies giving 90 per cent of the total B-band and K-band luminosity up to dL ≃ 130 Mpc. We include estimations of stellar masses and individual binary neutron star merger rates for galaxies with W1 magnitudes. These parameters can help in ranking galaxies in a given gravitational wave localization volume in terms of their likelihood of being hosts, thereby possibly reducing the number of pointings and total integration time needed to find the electromagnetic counterpart.

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO–Virgo Run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC–2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: a generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate.

On the Use of CHIME to Detect Long-duration Radio Transients from Neutron Star Mergers

Abstract The short gamma-ray burst (SGRB) GRB 170817A was found to be related to a binary neutron star (BNS) merger. It is uncertain whether all SGRBs are caused by BNS mergers and also under what conditions a BNS merger can cause an SGRB. As BNS mergers can cause SGRBs, afterglow observations will also provide an alternative measurement of the BNS merger rate independent of gravitational-wave observations. In previous work by Feng et al., the feasibility of the detection of afterglows was considered using a variety of radio observatories and a simple flux threshold detection algorithm. Here, we consider a more sophisticated detection algorithm for SGRB afterglows and provide an estimate of the trials factors for a realistic search to obtain an updated estimate of the possibility of observing afterglows with the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME). We estimate 893 and 312 afterglows per year can be detected using a 3σ confidence level threshold with two jet models, one with half-opening angle uniformly distributed in 6°–30° and the other uniformly distributed in 3°–8° with the median of 6°. We also find that 88% and 98%, respectively, of the detectable afterglows for each jet-opening distribution are off axis, which are candidates for orphan afterglows. Our result predicts fewer detectable sources per year than the earlier analysis but confirms the essential conclusion that using CHIME to search for afterglows will be effective in constraining the astrophysical merger rate.

An Infrared Search for Kilonovae with the WINTER Telescope. I. Binary Neutron Star Mergers

Abstract The Wide-Field Infrared Transient Explorer (WINTER) is a new 1 deg2 seeing-limited time-domain survey instrument designed for dedicated near-infrared follow-up of kilonovae from binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star–black hole mergers. WINTER will observe in the near-infrared Y, J, and short-H bands (0.9–1.7 μm, to J AB = 21 mag) on a dedicated 1 m telescope at Palomar Observatory. To date, most prompt kilonova follow-up has been in optical wavelengths; however, near-infrared emission fades more slowly and depends less on geometry and viewing angle than optical emission. We present an end-to-end simulation of a follow-up campaign during the fourth observing run (O4) of the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA interferometers, including simulating 625 BNS mergers, their detection in gravitational waves, low-latency and full parameter estimation skymaps, and a suite of kilonova lightcurves from two different model grids. We predict up to five new kilonovae independently discovered by WINTER during O4, given a realistic BNS merger rate. Using a larger grid of kilonova parameters, we find that kilonova emission is ≈2 times longer lived and red kilonovae are detected ≈1.5 times further in the infrared than in the optical. For 90% localization areas smaller than 150 (450) deg2, WINTER will be sensitive to more than 10% of the kilonova model grid out to 350 (200) Mpc. We develop a generalized toolkit to create an optimal BNS follow-up strategy with any electromagnetic telescope and present WINTER’s observing strategy with this framework. This toolkit, all simulated gravitational-wave events, and skymaps are made available for use by the community.

How can LISA probe a population of GW190425-like binary neutron stars in the Milky Way?

ABSTRACT The nature of GW190425, a presumed binary neutron star (BNS) merger detected by the LIGO/Virgo Scientific Collaboration (LVC) with a total mass of $3.4^{+0.3}_{-0.1}$ M⊙, remains a mystery. With such a large total mass, GW190425 stands at five standard deviations away from the total mass distribution of Galactic BNSs of 2.66 ± 0.12 M⊙. LVC suggested that this system could be a BNS formed from a fast-merging channel rendering its non-detection at radio wavelengths due to selection effects. BNSs with orbital periods less than a few hours – progenitors of LIGO/Virgo mergers – are prime target candidates for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). If GW190425-like binaries exist in the Milky Way, LISA will detect them within the volume of our Galaxy and will measure their chirp masses to better than 10 per cent for those binaries with gravitational wave frequencies larger than 2 mHz. This work explores how we can probe a population of Galactic GW190425-like BNSs with LISA and investigate their origin. We assume that the Milky Way’s BNS population consists of two distinct subpopulations: a fraction w1 that follows the observed Galactic BNS chirp mass distribution and w2 that resembles chirp mass of GW190425. We show that LISA’s accuracy on recovering the fraction of GW190425-like binaries depends on the BNS merger rate. For the merger rates reported in the literature, $21{-}212\,$ Myr−1, the error on the recovered fractions varies between ∼30 and 5 per cent.

The cosmic merger rate density of compact objects: impact of star formation, metallicity, initial mass function, and binary evolution

ABSTRACT We evaluate the redshift distribution of binary black hole (BBH), black hole–neutron star binary (BHNS), and binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, exploring the main sources of uncertainty: star formation rate (SFR) density, metallicity evolution, common envelope, mass transfer via Roche lobe overflow, natal kicks, core-collapse supernova model, and initial mass function. Among binary evolution processes, uncertainties on common envelope ejection have a major impact: the local merger rate density of BNSs varies from ∼103 to ∼20 Gpc−3 yr−1 if we change the common envelope efficiency parameter from αCE = 7 to 0.5, while the local merger rates of BBHs and BHNSs vary by a factor of ∼2–3. The BBH merger rate changes by one order of magnitude, when 1σ uncertainties on metallicity evolution are taken into account. In contrast, the BNS merger rate is almost insensitive to metallicity. Hence, BNSs are the ideal test bed to put constraints on uncertain binary evolution processes, such as common envelope and natal kicks. Only models assuming values of αCE ≳ 2 and moderately low natal kicks (depending on the ejected mass and the supernovae mechanism), result in a local BNS merger rate density within the 90 per cent credible interval inferred from the second gravitational-wave transient catalogue.

Can we constrain the aftermath of binary neutron star mergers with short gamma-ray bursts?

ABSTRACT The joint observation of GW170817 and GRB170817A proved that binary neutron star (BNS) mergers are progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs): this established a direct link between the still unsettled SGRB central engine and the outcome of BNS mergers, whose nature depends on the equation of state (EOS) and on the masses of the NSs. We propose a novel method to probe the central engine of SGRBs based on this link. We produce an extended catalogue of BNS mergers by combining recent theoretically predicted BNS merger rate as a function of redshift and the NS mass distribution inferred from measurements of Galactic BNSs. We use this catalogue to predict the number of BNS systems ending as magnetars (stable or supramassive NS) or BHs (formed promptly or after the collapse of a hypermassive NS) for different EOSs, and we compare these outcomes with the observed rate of SGRBs. Despite the uncertainties mainly related to the poor knowledge of the SGRB jet structure, we find that for most EOSs the rate of magnetars produced after BNS mergers is sufficient to power all the SGRBs, while scenarios with only BHs as possible central engine seem to be disfavoured.

Kilonova rates from spherical and axisymmetrical models

ABSTRACT Detecting the thermal emission from double neutron star merger events is a challenging task because of the quick fading of the observed flux. In order to create an efficient observing strategy for their observing method, it is crucial to know their intrinsic rate. Unfortunately, the numerous models existing today predict this rate on a very wide range. Hence, our goal in this paper is to investigate the effect of different levels of approximations on the relative rate predictions. Also, we study the effect of distinct ejecta mass layouts on the light curve. We find that the ratio of the expected kilonova detections of the spherical to axisymmetrical models is 6:1 (or 2:1, depending on the input parameter set applied in our work). Nevertheless, the light-curve shape is only slightly affected by the various ejecta alignments. This means that different ejecta layouts can produce light curves with similar shapes making it a challenging task to infer the structure of the matter outflow. Thus, we conclude that the uncertainty in the rate predictions arising from the various ejecta mass distribution models is negligible compared to the errors present in other input parameters (e.g. binary neutron star merger rate). In addition, we show that up to moderate redshifts (z ≲ 0.2) the redshift distribution type (observed or uniform in volume) does not affect the expected relative rate estimations.

Fast Radio Bursts from Activity of Neutron Stars Newborn in BNS Mergers: Offset, Birth Rate, and Observational Properties

Abstract Young neutron stars (NSs) born in core-collapse explosions are promising candidates for the central engines of fast radio bursts (FRBs), since the first localized repeating burst FRB 121102 occurs in a star-forming dwarf galaxy similar to the host galaxies of superluminous supernovae and long gamma-ray bursts. However, FRB 180924 and FRB 190523 are localized to massive galaxies with low rates of star formation, compared with the host of FRB 121102. The offsets between the bursts and host centers are about 4 and 29 kpc for FRB 180924 and FRB 190523, respectively. These host properties are similar to those of short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which are produced by binary neutron star (BNS) or NS–black hole mergers. Therefore, the NSs powering FRBs may be formed in BNS mergers. In this paper, we study BNS merger rates and merger times, and predict the most likely merger locations for different types of host galaxies using the population synthesis method. We find that the BNS merger channel is consistent with the recently reported offsets of FRB 180924 and FRB 190523. The offset distribution of short GRBs is well reproduced by population synthesis using a galaxy model similar to that of GRB hosts. The event rate of FRBs (including non-repeating and repeating), is larger than those of BNS mergers and short GRBs, and requires a large fraction of observed FRBs emitting several bursts. Using curvature radiation by bunches in NS magnetospheres, we also predict the observational properties of FRBs from BNS mergers, including the dispersion measure and rotation measure. At late times (t ≥ 1 yr), the contribution to dispersion measure and rotation measure from BNS merger ejecta can be neglected.

Sub-threshold Binary Neutron Star Search in Advanced LIGO’s First Observing Run

Abstract We present a search for gravitational waves from double neutron star binaries inspirals in Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory’s (LIGO’s) first observing run. The search considers a narrow range of binary chirp masses motivated by the population of known double neutron-star binaries in the nearby universe. This search differs from previously published results by providing the most sensitive published survey of neutron stars in Advanced LIGO’s first observing run within this narrow mass range, and also including times when only one of the two LIGO detectors was in operation in the analysis. The search was sensitive to binary neutron star (BNS) inspirals to an average distance of ∼85 Mpc over 93.2 days. We do not identify any unambiguous gravitational wave signals in our sample of 103 sub-threshold candidates with false-alarm rates of less than one per day. However, given the expected BNS merger rate of , we expect gravitational-wave events within our candidate list. This suggests the possibility that one or more of these candidates is in fact a BNS merger. Although the contamination fraction in our candidate list is ∼99%, it might be possible to correlate these events with other messengers to identify a potential multi-messenger signal. We provide an online candidate list with the times and sky locations for all events in order to enable multi-messenger searches.

Potential Gravitational-wave and Gamma-ray Multi-messenger Candidate from 2015 October 30

Abstract We present a search for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers that produced gravitational waves during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), and gamma-ray emission seen by either the Swift-Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) or the Fermi-Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), similar to GW170817 and GRB 170817A. We introduce a new method using a combined ranking statistic to detect sources that do not produce significant gravitational-wave or gamma-ray burst candidates individually. The current version of this search can increase by 70% the detections of joint gravitational-wave and gamma-ray signals. We find one possible candidate observed by LIGO and Fermi-GBM, 1-OGC 151030, at a false alarm rate of 1 in 13 yr. If astrophysical, this candidate would correspond to a merger at Mpc with source-frame chirp mass of . If we assume that the viewing angle must be <30° to be observed by Fermi-GBM, our estimate of the distance would become Mpc. By comparing the rate of BNS mergers to our search-estimated rate of false alarms, we estimate that there is a 1 in 4 chance that this candidate is astrophysical in origin.

SaprEMo: a simplified algorithm for predicting detections of electromagnetic transients in surveys

The multi-wavelength detection of GW170817 has inaugurated multi-messenger astronomy. The next step consists in interpreting observations coming from population of gravitational wave sources. We introduce saprEMo, a tool aimed at predicting the number of electromagnetic signals characterised by a specific light curve and spectrum, expected in a particular sky survey. By looking at past surveys, saprEMo allows us to constrain models of electromagnetic emission or event rates. Applying saprEMo to proposed astronomical missions/observing campaigns provides a perspective on their scientific impact and tests the effect of adopting different observational strategies. For our first case study, we adopt a model of spindown-powered X-ray emission predicted for a binary neutron star merger producing a long-lived neutron star. We apply saprEMo on data collected by XMM-Newton and Chandra and during $10^4$ s of observations with the mission concept THESEUS. We demonstrate that our emission model and binary neutron star merger rate imply the presence of some signals in the XMM-Newton catalogs. We also show that the new class of X-ray transients found by Bauer et al. in the Chandra Deep Field-South is marginally consistent with the expected rate. Finally, by studying the mission concept THESEUS, we demonstrate the substantial impact of a much larger field of view in searches of X-ray transients.

The Rate of Short-Duration Gamma-Ray Bursts in the Local Universe

Following the faint gamma-ray burst, GRB 170817A, coincident with a gravitational wave-detected binary neutron star merger at d ∼ 40 Mpc, we consider the constraints on a local population of faint short duration GRBs (defined here broadly as T 90 < 4 s). We review proposed low-redshift short-GRBs and consider statistical limits on a d ≲ 200 Mpc population using Swift/Burst Alert Telescope (BAT), Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), and Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (CGRO) Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) GRBs. Swift/BAT short-GRBs give an upper limit for the all-sky rate of < 4 y − 1 at d < 200 Mpc, corresponding to < 5% of SGRBs. Cross-correlation of selected CGRO/BATSE and Fermi/GBM GRBs with d < 100 Mpc galaxy positions returns a weaker constraint of ≲ 12 y − 1 . A separate search for correlations due to SGR giant flares in nearby ( d < 11 Mpc) galaxies finds an upper limit of < 3 y − 1 . Our analysis suggests that GRB 170817A-like events are likely to be rare in existing SGRB catalogues. The best candidate for an analogue remains GRB 050906, where the Swift/BAT location was consistent with the galaxy IC 0327 at d ≈ 132 Mpc. If binary neutron star merger rates are at the high end of current estimates, then our results imply that at most a few percent will be accompanied by detectable gamma-ray flashes in the forthcoming LIGO/Virgo science runs.

Binary neutron star merger rate via the luminosity function of short gamma-ray bursts

The luminosity function of short Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) is modelled by using the available catalogue data of all short GRBs (sGRBs) detected till October, 2017. The luminosities are estimated via the `pseudo-redshifts' obtained from the `Yonetoku correlation', assuming a standard delay distribution between the cosmic star formation rate and the production rate of their progenitors. While the simple powerlaw is ruled out to high confidence, the data is fit well both by exponential cutoff powerlaw and broken powerlaw models. Using the derived parameters of these models along with conservative values in the jet opening angles seen from afterglow observations, the true rate of short GRBs are derived. Assuming a short GRB is produced from each binary neutron star merger (BNSM), the rate of gravitational wave (GW) detections from these mergers are derived for the past, present and future configurations of the GW detector networks. Stringent lower limits of $1.87 \pyr$ for the aLIGO-VIRGO, and $3.11 \pyr$ for the upcoming aLIGO-VIRGO-KAGRA-LIGO/India configurations are thus derived for the BNSM rate at $68 \%$ confidence. The BNSM rates calculated from this work and that independently inferred from the observation of the only confirmed BNSM observed till date, are shown to have a mild tension; however the scenario that all BNSMs produce sGRBs cannot be ruled out.