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Collective Resilience: Deterring China's Weaponization of Economic Interdependence

Abstract Since the 2010s, China has used economic coercion against Western and Asian states to achieve territorial and political goals. China's leveraging of its market is a form of “predatory liberalism” that weaponizes the networks of interdependence created by globalization. The United States and other like-minded partners have mostly used piecemeal “de-risking” measures such as decoupling, supply chain resilience, reshoring, and trade diversion to reduce dependence on China and thereby minimize vulnerability to its economic coercion. But these practices do not stop the Chinese government's economic bullying. “Collective resilience” is a peer competition strategy designed to deter the Xi Jinping regime's economic predation. What informs this strategy is the understanding that interdependence, even asymmetric interdependence, is a two-way street. Original trade data show that the previous and current targets of economic coercion by the Xi Jinping regime export over $46.6 billion worth of goods to China on which it is more than 70 percent dependent as a proportion of its total imports of those goods. These target states could band together in a collective resilience alliance and practice economic deterrence by promising to retaliate against China's high-dependence trade should Beijing act against any one of the alliance members.

Assessing the Risks Associated with the Canadian Railway System Using a Safety Risk Model Approach

Canada’s national rail network plays a vital role in moving goods and people, transferring $320 billion worth of goods and over 100 million passengers annually. Severe train occurrences are rare events. But they have the potential to cause fatalities and injuries, as well as environmental and property damage. Recent severe incidents, such as Burlington in 2012 and Lac-Mégantic in 2013, have shown that there is still a need for increased awareness and enhanced risk assessment. This work focuses on risk assessment on the Canadian railway system using the Safety Risk Model (SRM). The study applied a customized Canadian SRM (C-SRM) to two groups of hazardous events: main-track derailments and collisions with fatality and injury consequences, calibrated for data between 2007 and 2017. The model used Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) to identify the risks of hazardous events. The individual risks of the hazardous events were then evaluated for three groups of people: passengers, employees, and members of the public (MOP). Finally, the effectiveness of introducing a new control measure, Enhanced Train Control (ETC), was assessed. The results of the study showed that the collective risk of main-track derailments is higher than main-track collisions. Moreover, the risk to MOP and employees form the most significant proportion of individual risk. Finally, risk reduction analysis of the ETC revealed that developing this system reduced the risk of main-track derailments and collisions. This new control measure thus has the potential to make Canadian railways safer.

Україна в системі зовнішньоекономічної діяльності: проблеми і шляхи формування умов виходу на міжнародні ринки

The dynamics of Ukraine's foreign trade in recent years was analysed. It has shown that Ukraine is a fairly significant country in the world market for goods and services. In 2020 it had a wide range of trade relations with partners from 234 countries. Ukraine exports nearly USD 50 billion worth of goods and is one of the 50 largest exporters of goods. At the same time, the following problems were identified: a slow and unstable growth in exports, a negative balance of foreign trade in goods, an imperfect structure of exports due to its raw material nature.The principal obstacles to increase exports were identified: the continuation of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation and the loss of the part of enterprises producing export products. Obstacles for Ukraine in the way of exporting products to some third countries associated with the actions of the Russian Federation; low technological level of economic development of the country, the consequence of which is a low level of competitiveness of Ukrainian goods, a small share of high-tech products and mainly raw materials structure of Ukraine's exports, which reduces export revenues; insufficient experience and knowledge of domestic manufacturers in the sphere of foreign economic activity, inability to conduct effective marketing research of foreign markets, present their products on them and establish partnerships.It was concluded that the Export Strategy of Ukraine for 2017-2021 adopted in 2018, which identified the priority tasks for the development of export potential, as well as the established state institution Office for Export Promotion will contribute to the revitalization of the national enterprises on the way to conquering foreign markets. For active and effective foreign trade, it is also necessary to strengthen activities in the field of advanced training and the formation of competencies of entrepreneurs, particularly, among representatives of SMEs, which is necessary for participation in international trade.

Assessment of port efficiency using stepwise selection and window analysis in data envelopment analysis

Seaports play an important role in the national economy, with $900+ billion worth of goods moving in and out of the USA in containers. Growing shipping capacity and severe congestion in US ports raise concerns on their state of efficiency. Assessment of relative efficiency of container ports can provide insights into the productivity and performance of different ports. This study applies the appropriate data envelopment analysis (DEA) models to assess the changes in efficiency for 15 US container ports. The input and output variables in the DEA models are chosen using stepwise selection, a first-time application in the port industry. Their relationships are then examined using the available records since the year 2000. Comparisons among different ports over time are carried out using 4-year window analysis. The results are instrumental to decision-makers, providing a way to link performance measurements to operational planning activities and identifying investment areas within ports that can affect income and trade.

Import-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan

In 2017, Pakistan has imported amounted $57 billion worth of goods from world which shows significant role of import in domestic consumption. However; most of the imports are capital goods and petroleum products which increased the trade deficit and debts. . Moreover, imports are used to run the production processes in the economy. Hence, it can be said that imports are valuable to increase growth which is the objective of this study. We have investigated the import and economic growth nexus by taking data from 1985 to 2016 for Pakistan. Growth rate has been taken as dependent variable whereas; import, export FDI and inflation rate are independent variables. After finding the stationary of the time series, ARDL technique for dynamic perspective in short and long run. We have successfully tested the imports-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan. The finding of the study proves the there is more significant role of import for determining GDP growth than exports due to the largest share of raw material, intermediate manufacturing and capital goods in imports. Although more imports will results in a greater balance of payment deficits however, import of capital and intermediate goods should be encouraged and imports consumer goods should be discouraged. Moreover, tariff rate on imported goods and border tariff should also be reduced whilst and direction of trade should be more diversified and inclusive from North America to Eastern and Western Asia. Keywords : Import led growth, Export, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, ARDL DOI : 10.7176/JESD/10-8-04 Publication date : April 30 th 2019

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy

Warnings grow about tariff impact

Slapping a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports would raise the prices of countless products and damage U.S. companies, representatives from the chemical industry told the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative at public hearings last week. After imposing a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods earlier this summer, USTR is now considering taxing other Chinese products worth four times as much at the same rate. Chemicals and plastics represent more than $16 billion worth of the goods on the $200 billion list, according to the American Chemistry Council, an industry association. Moving ahead with the new tariffs “would have a potentially irreparable impact on our industry’s economic structure and supply chain,” ACC’s director of international trade, Ed Brzytwa, warned at the hearing. The group also cautioned that retaliatory tariffs would close off the Chinese market to U.S. chemical producers. “The best way to

Heritage tourism’s economic contribution

Heritage tourism is a growing field, both from a visitation perspective and in terms of research efforts. This article adds value by reporting results of a study that estimated the economic contributions of heritage tourism in a major state in the U.S. Patterns of visitor behavior and spending detailed within these data could be used by future researchers as a benchmark for estimating the economic contribution of heritage tourism in other regions. Survey data were collected at dozens of diverse heritage-related attractions across hundreds of miles of geography in Pennsylvania using traditional printed questionnaire instruments as well as a mobile/online questionnaire instrument. A total of 3,524 completed questionnaires were collected and analyzed. The study estimated that tourists spent 7.5 million days/nights visiting survey sites, purchasing US$2 billion worth of goods and services attributable to heritage tourism. Limitations of the study are discussed along with implications for future research.

Strategic Directions Towards Promoting Trade Relations Between Korea and MERCOSUR

The trade volume between Korea and Latin America in 2015 showed that Korea exported US$ 28.7 billion worth of goods and imported US$ 14.6 billion worth of goods. Korea has been actively entering into FTAs in Latin America, starting with Chile and then with Peru in 2011. Now it has reached an agreement with Colombia, which is about to be effective. Thus, this study analyzed the current trade status between Korea and Latin America by focusing on the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), the largest economic integration block in Latin America, as well as identified obstacles in an effort to propose strategic directions which will improve cooperative relations with MERCOSUR. Findings revealed that MERCOSUR has attained significant achievements in terms of trade and investment. Based on the results, this study aims to contribute to revitalize trade between Korea and MERCOSUR by presenting improvement plans for the trade problems.

Optimal bidding in online auctions

Online auctions are arguably one of the most important and distinctly new applications of the Internet. The predominant player in online auctions, eBay, has over 42 million users, and it was the host of over $9.3 billion worth of goods sold just in the year 2001. Using methods from approximate dynamic programming and integer programming, we design algorithms for optimally bidding for a single item in an online auction, and in simultaneous or overlapping multiple online auctions. We report computational evidence using data from eBay's website from 1772 completed auctions for personal digital assistants and from 4208 completed auctions for stamp collections that shows that (a) the optimal dynamic policy outperforms simple but widely used static heuristic rules for a single auction, and (b) a new approach for the multiple auctions problem that uses the value functions of single auctions found by dynamic programming in an integer programming framework produces high-quality solutions fast and reliably.

Electronic reverse auctions: Promises, risks and conditions for success

Because reverse auctions hold high promises, it has become a popular tool in the past several years. One estimate is that as much as US$50 billion worth of goods may be purchased with reverse auctions in 2001. However, risks exist with reverse auctions. To better understand purchasers' motivation for using reverse auctions, what they perceive as the risks and the conditions required for successful use, interviews were conducted with 41 purchasing professionals who had used reverse auctions. The interviews revealed three primary motivations, three perceived risks and four conditions for success. The conditions required for success are: (1) the product or service specifications must be clear and comprehensive, (2) the purchase must be large enough to provide an incentive for the supplier to participate in the auction, (3) the appropriate supply market conditions must exist, and (4) the appropriate infrastructure must exist within the buying organization.

Asian Labour Migration: Past, Present, and Future

The Asia-Pacific region has witnessed some of the most rapid changes in the global division of labour over the past decade. Since 1970, the economies of East and Southeast Asia have been transformed from suppliers of agricultural and mineral raw materials into major exporters of manufactured goods, from cars to computer chips. In 1992 Asian countries (excluding Japan) ex ported US$453 billion worth of goods, more than the United States or Germany, and equivalent to about 16 per cent of the exports of all the ad vanced industrial countries, including Japan. The economic transformation from resource exports to goods exports has been attributed to a number of factors: judicious government inter vention to promote exports, policies that encouraged transnational corporations to invest, timely restructuring and upgrading of industries, and continuing investments in human resources. Open economic policies succeeded in inducing large inflows of foreign capital and technology, which Asian countries used with great effective ness to speed up the pace of industrialization and development. One important consequence of rapid develop ment is the growth of labour migration: over the past two decades, cross-border flows of migrant labour have increased ten-fold in East and South east Asia. Most of the growth occurred in the 1980s. At the beginning of the 1980s, there were perhaps 1 million foreign workers in East and Southeast Asia, including long-term resident Koreans in Japan and Indonesians in Malaysia. By 1990, the number of foreign workers probably exceeded 3 million. During the 1960s, economically-motivated migration was directed largely to countries out side Asia, such as the United States and Canada. Today, labour migration means flows of all kinds of workers, from housemaids to oil engineers, within Asia. The thesis of this article is that labour migra tion is a normal part of the economic development re-shaping Asia, and the number and diversity of labour migrations are likely to increase in the years ahead. There are many reasons for expect ing more rather than less migration: the rapid depletion of traditional reserves of flexible

Deregulating Defense Acquisition

The Department of Defense (DOD) buys more merchandise than all the rest of the public sector of the United States put together. More than 30,000 firms provision the DOD; 15,000 are prime contractors. These firms employ hundreds of thousands of production workers, engineers, and scientists and tens of thousands of accountants, lawyers, and lobbyists as well altogether over three million employees. ' The acquisition process also enlists the efforts of legions of DOD personnel, both uniformed and civilian (over 580 thousand according to the expansive DOD definition of acquisition,2 including 26,000 auditors), as well as prodigious numbers of legislators and their helpers. I estimate that the DOD's inventory of arms and equipment has a net replacement value of about $.7 trillion, equal to one-fifth of the nation's business investment in plant and equipment. Given that the average half-life of the DOD's equipment is approximately ten years, this means that the DOD must buy $80 billion worth of arms and equipment each year just to stay even. Sustaining a technological edge costs $40 billion for military research and development, and operating and maintaining the inventory at current readiness levels costs $85 billion more. In 1990 the DOD purchased about $220 billion worth of goods and services from a variety of outside suppliers, which put it somewhat ahead of the game.

Current Status and Prospects of Sino-Japanesf Economic and Trade Relations

Since China and Japan restored their diplomatic relations in September 1972, trade between the two countries has moved further ahead on the basis of then existing nongovernmental trade relations. Except in 1976, trade volume has registered a rapid growth several years in a row. Statistics released by Japanese Customs indicated that trade was U.S. $1.1 billion in 1972 and $5.079 billion in 1978. It reached $10.389 billion in 1981, or 3.52 percent of Japan's total foreign trade and 24.7 percent of China's. Of this, China exported to Japan $5.292 billion worth of goods, a 22.4 percent increase over the preceding year. This trade accounted for 3.7 percent of Japan's total imports and 22 percent of China's total exports. Conversely, China imported from Japan $5.097 billion in products, or a 0.4 percent increase over the preceding year. This trade accounted for 3.35 percent of Japan's total exports and 27.6 percent of China's total imports.

East-West-Trade

The observer of the post-war trade scene can only commend the gradual breaking down of the barriers to East-West trade. Since 1960, for example, 20 per cent of the increase in Canadian exports went to socialist countries. In 1965, these sales, largely of wheat, made a contribution of over $600,000,000 to our balance of payments. Perhaps they also added something to the developing climate of peaceful relations. A volume of essays devoted to the problems and prospects of EastWest trade is therefore an auspicious event, particularly since it is the first such volume published in this country.* This book grew out of a conference of academic specialists, government officials and businessmen held at Carleton University in March 1965 and was sponsored by the Canadian Institute of International Affairs. It tells us something about the opportunities and even more about the pitfalls in East-West trade and, indirectly, about the temper of the Canadian response to these prospects. A lucid and perceptive analysis of the trends in East-West trade is offered by Dr. Leon M. Herman of the U.S. Library of Congress. He notes that two separate trading interests grown up among western countries. In 1964, for example, Western European countries imported some $3 billion worth of goods from Eastern Europe while the corresponding American figure was about $100 million. Western European countries have, in fact, a long tradition of trade with Eastern Europe since their economies are largely complementary. They require raw materials and foodstuffs and export, in turn, machinery and finished products. But another relevant factor that accounts for this disparity in Western trade is the climate of public opinion which is different in the United States and in Western Europe. We in the United States, Dr. Herman notes, have kept ourselves largely aloof from the trade overtures which the Soviet leadership has made towards the West since the end of the Stalin era.