Bilateral Trade Volume Research Articles

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on China-ASEAN Trade Relations along the Belt and Road: An Augmented Gravity Model Analysis

While trade liberalization has become increasingly important in global economic integration, little is known about its specific impact on China-ASEAN bilateral trade relations within the Belt and Road Initiative framework, particularly regarding cultural factors. This study addresses this gap by examining how trade liberalization affects bilateral trade dynamics between China and ASEAN nations, with special attention to linguistic and religious proximity as potential moderators. Using an augmented gravity model and panel data from 2012-2022, we find that increased trade liberalization significantly enhances bilateral trade volumes, with stronger effects in export trade compared to imports. Moreover, shared linguistic foundations and religious beliefs amplify these positive effects, particularly in ASEAN countries with lower economic development levels. These findings provide crucial insights for policymakers seeking to strengthen regional economic integration and optimize trade cooperation strategies along the Belt and Road.

The Role of Social Networks in International Trade and Economic Development

In an era of global trade, cultural differences and trade barriers persist, impacting international business transactions among companies. However, research has revealed that individuals within the same social network, regardless of their physical location, experience a mitigation of information asymmetry. This, in turn, facilitates the establishment of robust cross-border business relationships and enhances the efficiency of international trade. This effect is particularly pronounced among immigrants, who often maintain social networks that bridge cultural gaps and foster social connections. Such networks can markedly amplify the volume of trade for businesses. Moreover, these social networks play a pivotal role in facilitating market entry. Sharing a common social network serves as a trust-building mechanism in cross-border trade, enabling enterprises to share transaction risks and decrease the unpredictability of transactions. The study integrates the latest research on the pivotal role of social networks in global business. The findings demonstrate that ethnic networks, such as those formed by Chinese immigrants, significantly enhance trade volumes, particularly in product categories with high information asymmetry. Greater levels of social connectivity within these networks are associated with substantially higher bilateral trade volumes, especially for goods facing significant information friction. Immigrant networks serve not only as economic connections but also as cultural and social conduits crucial for promoting international trade. In conclusion, social networks mitigate information asymmetry and facilitate rapid expansion into overseas markets for businesses. They also optimize supply chain management by monitoring market dynamics and consumer feedback in real time, while clearly identifying market opportunities.

Towards spatially disaggregated cocaine supply chain modeling

Despite the global reach and economic scale of cocaine trafficking, our best geographic understanding of the global trade remains coarse. A more spatially disaggregated understanding of how the cocaine supply chain embeds across multiple locations is necessary for informing security policies and anticipating the spread and intensity of social and environmental harms associated with the cocaine trade. In this research, modeling methods used for legal supply chains are adapted to spatially disaggregate illicit supply chain flows. Profit and supply maximization model versions were compared to elucidate key decision parameters cocaine traffickers might be facing. Cocaine flows to EU+3 (Norway, Turkey, and United Kingdom) markets were estimated based on the smuggling capacity of major Central American ports and bilateral trade volumes of selected commodities most often seized with cocaine shipments. The resulting estimates of cocaine volumes diverted to EU+3 countries from Central America ranged between 938 and 1526 metric tons (MT). Generally, easier concealment and storage in Central America led to less volume supplied to the United States (US) and increased shipments to EU+3 markets. Importantly, the value of this modeling approach is not in the quantitative estimates produced, but in the methodological approach that provides the ability to rigorously ground any quantitative estimates of clandestine phenomenon in the best available data.

An Analysis Of India’s Trade Relations With Key Export Destinations During The Past Decade

This paper presents a detailed analysis of India's trade relations with five key export destinations: the United States of America, the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, China, and the United Kingdom. By examining the structural changes in export composition, trade patterns, and the impacts of these relationships on India's economic growth, the study identifies strategic areas for enhancing export performance. The paper uncovers trends and makes predictions for future trade dynamics by analysing bilateral trade volumes, statistical tools like mean correlation, time series analysis, and hypothesis testing. The findings highlight the significance of these partnerships in India's global trade strategy and offer policy recommendations for further strengthening these economic ties.

Econometric Analysis of China-Egypt Bilateral Relations: Trade, Investment, and Economic Cooperation

This paper presents a comprehensive econometric analysis of the bilateral relations between China and Egypt, focusing on trade dynamics, investment flows, and broader economic cooperation. Utilising a range of statistical methods and data from 2000 to 2023, the study examines how the evolving geopolitical landscape has influenced economic ties between the two nations. Special attention is given to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its impact on bilateral trade and investment. The analysis reveals a significant increase in bilateral trade volume, with China emerging as a key investor in various sectors of the Egyptian economy. Furthermore, the paper explores the socio-economic effects of these relations on local industries, employment, and regional development in Egypt. The study also addresses the challenges and opportunities presented by this partnership, providing policy recommendations for enhancing mutual economic benefits and sustainable development.

Analysis of Road 3 Asia (R3A)’s Impacts on Border Trade of Thailand

Trade opening has become an important asset for economic development in many countries and an important engine of economic globalization (Wang, Shan-Li, et al, 2020). With continuous foster on the regional economic cooperation, countries with close proximity further promote the mobility and development of infrastructures and policies. Nevertheless, testing a trade integration model of bilateral trade is not sufficiently well estimated with the Bayesian approach to provide practical evidence of trade integration. Moreover, in identifying the factors determining trade integration, testing using the Bayesian gravity equation is essential. After performing a series of simulation experiments, a relationship between bilateral trade volume and simulated trade determinants was predicted for the trade model. The results of the estimated coefficients on GDP in Thailand and GDP of Yunnan province, China are positively significant predictors of the trade growth. The distance between the countries has a negatively significant estimation that implies barriers in trade. The model predicts trade integration, especially towards the trade on route R3A. The Bayesian approach of the gravity model gives robust estimates for determining the impact factor for the bilateral trade, including the fact that the elasticities of total trade volume with respect to distance, population, and the exchange rate of Thailand are negative while the GDP per capita are positively significant. Further, economic size, GDP per capita, and exchange rate of the destination, and population and area of Yunnan province are positively predicted by the model. The estimated parameters are directly the elasticities, in which increases in GDP is consistent with the higher trade volumes. Further, evidence of the gravity equation is used for understanding trade potential, and after some integrations, the estimation is applied for the real trade. The measures of bilateral trade resistance or costs associated with the trade flow has influenced the expanding of the bilateral trade in the model in the GMS economies. Finally, trade integration can be implemented with evidence and estimates of the gravity model. The Bayesian experiment for the estimation of the impacts of the trade integration on route R3A predicts an increase of GDP, population, exchange rate, and GDP per capita as predominant predictors in the Bayesian gravity model. Thus, the results revealed that economic size, bilateral distance, and GDP per capita has affected the plausible trade agreements for trade integration on route R3A.

CHINA’S TRADE RELATIONS WITH UKRAINE

Purpose. The purpose of the article is the study of trade relations between China and Ukraine, the analysis of the volume of bilateral trade and the product structure between trading partners, as well as the outline of challenges and opportunities for the development of future trade cooperation. Methodology of research. The article uses the method of systematic literature analysis to collect, compare and analyze relevant literary materials, including data on trade and scientific research of the two countries in recent years, for a deeper understanding of the process of development of bilateral trade relations and their structure between China and Ukraine. At the same time, the method of theoretical generalization was used to understand the challenges and opportunities that exist in trade relations between countries, the abstract and logical method – to develop proposals for solving problems and promoting cooperation; graphic method – for visual presentation of research results. Findings. Through the analysis of the development process of trade relations, the situation of trade products, the challenges faced and the prospect of the future, this paper draws the following research results: trade relations develop rapidly, and the bilateral trade volume continues to grow; trade relations face challenges such as trade barriers, geopolitical factors and political uncertainties; the cooperation between the two sides has opportunities in various fields and at various levels, which can promote economic growth and international competitiveness. Originality. Trade relations between China and Ukraine have been comprehensively and in detail analyzed, focusing on achieving bilateral mutually beneficial cooperation and strategies for overcoming challenges; proposals were developed regarding future cooperation and the practical significance of its prospects. Practical value. The main provisions of the study contain useful reference information for government officials (developed proposals for strategic planning and trade cooperation), business structures (analysis of the market situation and opportunities for trade cooperation can be used to adjust business strategy and expand the market) and academic researchers (research methods and analytical base can be used as reference materials for a deeper study of trade relations between countries). Key words: belt and Road Initiative, China-Ukraine relations, export, import, trade barriers, trade cooperation, trade relations.

The Impact of Bilateral Trade on Economic Diplomacy Effectiveness between Ethiopia and China

This article investigates the intricate relationship between bilateral trade and economic diplomacy, focusing specifically on the case of Ethiopia and China. Through a qualitative approach integrating interviews, focus group discussions, and thematic analysis, the study delves into the evolving dynamics of their multifaceted partnership. It examines various dimensions of economic relations, including trade agreements, infrastructure projects, and cultural exchanges, while addressing the significance of economic diplomacy in shaping international economic policies and advancing mutual interests. Drawing on insights from scholars and historical context, the research explores specific research questions pertaining to trade policies, tariffs, trade imbalances, quality and type of traded goods, trade-related disputes, and diplomatic negotiations. Findings reveal the transformative power of economic diplomacy, evidenced by the historical trend of bilateral trade volume and the influence of trade policies, tariffs, and agreements on economic diplomacy outcomes. Trade imbalances and trade diversification emerge as critical factors shaping economic diplomacy effectiveness, highlighting the importance of strategic policy alignment and diplomatic negotiations. Theoretical perspectives including liberalism, realism, interdependence theory, constructivism, and institutionalism provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the evolving Ethiopia-China economic relationship. The study underscores the pivotal role of diplomatic negotiations in navigating trade dynamics and fostering resilient economic partnerships. Recommendations offered in the study provide strategic pathways for policymakers to enhance economic relations between Ethiopia and China in the global context, emphasizing the need for strategic engagement in trade negotiations, balancing trade deficit, promoting investment and industrial development, strengthening regulatory and legal frameworks, fostering cultural and academic exchanges, and enhancing infrastructure and connectivity. Moreover, suggestions for future studies outline avenues for further research to deepen understanding of this complex relationship, encompassing longitudinal analysis, comparative studies, sector-specific investigations, stakeholder perspectives, environmental and social dimensions, policy evaluation, and cultural and societal impacts. Addressing these aspects will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of bilateral trade on economic diplomacy between Ethiopia and China.

The impact of China’s financing to Africa on bilateral trade intensity under the Belt and Road Initiative

ABSTRACT Based on panel data from 2000 to 2021 covering African 52 countries under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and utilizing a system generalized method of moments with instrumental variables, the study finds that China’s financing has played a positive role in both export and import intensities of African countries with China. However, the impacts of different financing types on trade intensities vary by different country groups and periods. First, Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has a much bigger impact on both export intensity and import intensity, and aid has a much bigger impact on export intensity in resource-rich African countries than other countries. Second, Chinese OFDI has a much bigger impact on export intensity and aid has a much bigger impact on both export and import intensities in low-income African countries than other countries. Third, the regression results from different periods indicate that Chinese financing has enhanced the bidirectional trade relations between China and Africa since BRI launch. The study is conducive to the exploration of multinational corporations and foreign aid’s role in trade relations and will help African countries use Chinese capital to promote bilateral cooperation and get rid of poverty.

The Effect of Trade Agreements on Korea’s Bilateral Trade Volume: Mitigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty in Trading Countries

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects.
 Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects.
 Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implemen- tation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed.
 Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

Türkiye Azerbaycan Ekonomik İlişkileri: İki Taraflı Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler Perspektifi

Türkiye is attempting to strengthen its economic relations through regional and global cooperations. Türkiye desires to boost trade volume, diversify trade markets, and become a major player in the area through bilateral or multilateral collaboration with South Caucasus and Central Asian nations, with whom it shares linguistic and cultural affinities. After Azerbaijan declared its independence in 1991, Türkiye established economic relations with Azerbaijan and signed a Preferential Trade Agreement in 2020, in order to take the cooperation to a higher level. The economic relations of the two nations are analyzed in terms of international trade in this study, with the goal of increasing bilateral trade volume and liberalizing trade. Countries are assessed using fundamental macroeconomic variables, and their comparative advantages in bilateral trade are established. Using the bilateral revealed comparative advantage index, the study examined the nations' comparative advantages and export shares by product group. The findings of the study allow for a comparison of product groupings with comparative advantage with the products covered by the Preferential Trade Agreement, as well as a sense of the agreement's potential to enhance trade volume.

Vietnam’s bilateral trade intensity: the role of China

ABSTRACT This paper aims to study the intensity of trade between Vietnam and its trading partners. Vietnam’s revealed trade preference with a country was found to be negatively correlated with distance, but positively correlated with contiguity, colonial linkages and having a free trade agreement between the pair. At the disaggregate level, contiguity leads to higher revealed export preferences in labour-intensive goods for Vietnam, but this effect on revealed import preferences is less significant. The revealed trade preference indices show that among major trading partners, China’s role is important for Vietnam’s trade, but this role is less dominant than what traditional trade share analysis shows.

An Empirical Study of Trade in Goods between China and Brazil: Analysis of Competitiveness and Complementarity

China and Brazil established the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in 2012. Since the establishment of the partnership, China and Brazil have continued to deepen economic and trade cooperation, and cooperation in various fields has achieved remarkable results. China has long been consistent in maintaining its status as Brazil’s largest export destination and source of imports. The total volume of bilateral trade between China and Brazil has significantly increased, and the trade structure in goods is becoming increasingly diversified. The total volume of bilateral trade between China and Brazil has grown considerably, and the trade structure in goods has become increasingly diversified. On 20 April 2023, when Brazilian President Lula visited China, China and Brazil issued a joint statement on deepening the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”, further deepening the cooperation in trade in goods has become a consensus. From the perspective of goods trade under the comprehensive strategic partnership, the article analyses the complementarities and competitiveness of goods trade between China and Brazil with the help of relevant formulas to form a complete and transparent study of the goods trade between the two countries.

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and India’s Bilateral Trade: A Gravity Model Approach

Through a gravity model, the paper attempts to analyse the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on India’s gross bilateral trade flows between its top five trading partners and its SAARC partners. Categorising the industries into five segments, namely, agricultural raw materials, chemicals, textile and clothing, metals and all other commodities, over 18 years (2000–2018), a panel data technique has been applied to examine the effect. The empirical result suggests that even though an exchange rate uncertainty shrinks the bilateral trade flows of agricultural raw materials for SAARC members, it enhances the trade flows across all industry verticals for the top five trading partners. Following the gravity model of trade, the study further suggests that the volume of bilateral trade between countries is proportional to the product of each country’s economic growth and inversely proportional to the distance between them. JEL: F10, F14,O24,D81

Evaluation and Comparison of Trade Relations Between Ethiopia–China and Ethiopia–India: Gravity Model

This study evaluates the trade relations between Ethiopia and China as well as Ethiopia and India, and then compares the bilateral trade volume between them. It also examines the nexus between international trade and economic growth. Panel data were adopted to estimate the impact of China’s and India’s bilateral trade with Ethiopia for the 25 years duration (1990–2015). The gravity model has been employed in order to evaluate and compare the bilateral trade between Ethiopia–China and Ethiopia–India. To examine the collected data SPSS has been employed. The study also outlined three different hypotheses and examined them based on the consistency of the statistical empirical result of the study as well as the positive unconditional coherence with previous academic literature. The result demonstrates the bilateral trade between Ethiopia–China, 0.321, was found to be higher than Ethiopia–India, 0.136. The study’s empirical result also highlights that the influence of geographical proximity alone cannot be a determinant effect on bilateral trade, and discovers a significant linear relationship between a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) and a partner country’s economic size.

China’s Views on Solving the Yemeni Issue Within the Framework of Global Security Initiative

Yemen is a traditional friendly country of China and an important partner of China in the Arabian Peninsula. As a result of the recurring conflicts in Yemen, its economic situation has been deteriorating. China’s bilateral trade volume and direct investment with Yemen have been directly affected by the war in Yemen and have fluctuated significantly. The security and happiness of the Yemeni people and the effective protection of people’s rights cannot be achieved without stable internal social relations and a peaceful external environment. In 2022, President Xi Jinping proposed the Global Security Initiative (GSI), calling on countries to adapt to the profoundly changing international landscape in the spirit of solidarity, and to address security challenges with a win-win mindset. In 2023, China releases the Global Security Initiative Concept Paper. China’s idea for solving the Yemen issue is a theoretical and institutional reflection on war, peace and development based on a reflexion of the unequal world hegemonic order, centreing on equality and the care for humanity.

Bilateral Trade and Strategic Rivalry

Conflict is a costly endeavor. However, conflict itself is of unobservable magnitude which makes statistical inference problematic. The long-run economic cost of conflict is calculated as the sum of the contemporaneous costs and the discounted value of future costs. Typically, researchers use War or Militarized Interstate Conflicts as independent, discrete events to calculate its contemporaneous effect and then introduce a time binary variable to estimate the lagged effects since the end of the event. The conflict datasets accurately recognize the dates of the core conflict. However, they ignore the possibility that a lack of militarized conflict does not necessarily mean that issues have been settled, thus we are underestimating overall costs. The present study estimates the economic costs of rivalry. The international rivalry cycle is a process in which a pair of states create and sustain a relationship of atypical hostility for some period. This paper is part of the renaissance of research activity in the applied economics of international trade. The gravity model is used to determine the economic cost of Rivalry on bilateral trade using panel data. At the aggregate level, strategic and enduring rivalries have a negative and significant effect on trade flow. The results show that the total effect of rivalry accounts for 48%-57% of the fall in bilateral trade volume, which is equivalent in cost to 19% of the ad-valorem tax. If the rivalry is disaggregated by claim type: spatial, positional, and mixed, then we observe that the cost varies substantially with the type. Spatial rivalry explains 16%-26% of the fall in trade volume, while positional and mixed rivalry explain 49%-57% and 77%-82%, respectively.

Evolution of the bilateral trade situation between Belt and Road countries and China

The Belt and Road Initiative's (BRI) potential impact on bilateral trade between Belt and Road countries (BRCs) and China is hotly contested. It is crucial to clarify what changes in the trade situation of China-BRCs bilateral trade before and after the BRI, including economic gains and environmental costs. This study applies the decomposition of production activities method to calculate the value-added (VA) and embodied CO2 emissions (ECE) transfer in China-BRCs bilateral trade from 2004 to 2017. The relevant results are fourfold. (1) The growth rates of China's VA exports and ECE exports to the BRCs are 1.44 times and 1.36 times higher than the growth rates of imports. (2) Electricity, iron and steel, and chemical rubber products are the main sectors of China's ECE exports. The oil industry is the main industry of BRCs' VA exports. (3) From 2004 to 2017, China's bilateral trade with most of the BRCs exchanged net ECE for net VA. Compared with traditional trade, China is gradually losing net benefits in VA for reducing the net costs of ECE under GVC activities. (4) The embodied CO2 intensity (ECI) of China-BRCs bilateral trade is decreasing, and the ECI of China's exports to BRCs is 2.11 times of imports. The primary driver of a decline in ECI is the CO2 emissions coefficient. These findings demonstrate that the BRI has had a positive impact on the China-BRCs bilateral trade and GVC activities leading to cleaner exports from China and BRCs. The research comprehensive analysis framework of economic and carbon emissions of cross-border trade established in this study provides a methodological basis for subsequent studies of other environmental indicators.

Research on the Impact of Trade Facilitation on China-ASEAN Bilateral Trade Volume

With the increasingly significant degree of economic globalization, trade liberalization has developed to a certain extent, some insignificant but far-reaching trade barriers have begun to attract the attention of countries and regions: too long transportation time, complicated declaration documents, layers of declaration procedures, the government supervision system is not perfect, etc. Over the past ten years since the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the two sides have issued many policies to improve the economic and trade environment and enhance the level of facilitation. However, due to the differences in the infrastructure and business environment, the level of trade facilitation between China and ASEAN member states is not high enough. Based on this, the paper takes the China-ASEAN trade volume as the research object, establishes the trade facilitation evaluation index system, measures the level of trade facilitation in the ten ASEAN countries, studies the influence of it and its four primary indicators on the total trade volume based on the gravity model. The results show that the level of trade facilitation has an important impact on the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN. There is a significant positive correlation between the trade facilitation level of partner countries and trade volume. For every 1% increase in the trade facilitation level of ASEAN partners, its trade volume with China will increase by about 1.248%. Countries can improve the customs and institutional environment, improve the construction of high-efficiency ports and high-level e-commerce to improve the level of trade facilitation, and strengthen trade cooperation with China.

Russia-India Economic Cooperation: Current Trends and Promising Directions

The prevailing geopolitical conditions, characterized by Russia's reorientation away from the West and India's steadfast pursuit of an independent foreign and economic policy, present a distinctive prospect for Russia and India to enhance their trade and investment collaboration to a heightened level. Despite the existence of a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between the two nations, the volume of bilateral trade and mutual investments has long remained insufficient in comparison to their political ties. Nevertheless, the trade volume between Russia and India is now experiencing rapid growth due to the significant increase in exports of energy, fertilizers, iron and steel, wood products, vegetable and animal oils from Russia to India. This article not only examines this phenomenon but also assesses the necessary conditions to address India's escalating trade deficit with Russia. These prerequisites encompass the expansion of the manufacturing sector in India, the rise in purchasing power of the Indian middle class, and the accelerated development of digitization in both India and Russia. The Indian economy has been notably stimulated by key governmental initiatives led by Narendra Modi, such as "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (or "Self-Reliant India"), "Make in India," "Skill India," and "Startup India," all of which prioritize digital transformation. Russian entrepreneurs demonstrate a keen interest in India's market trends and swiftly adapt to India's evolving demands and capabilities. Similarly, Indian business circles exhibit a growing inclination to acquire knowledge about contemporary Russia. This realignment presents an opportunity to expand trade beyond conventional goods and establish new investment connections between the two countries.