Bilateral Linkages Research Articles

Common trade exposure and business cycle comovement

Bilateral trade is considered a key driver of business-cycle transmission, as countries with higher bilateral trade have more correlated business cycles. We show, however, that when we account for the common trade exposure of a country pair to similar foreign cycles, the effect of bilateral trade on comovement falls sharply. Furthermore, common trade exposure is also a robust predictor of comovement. We conclude that trade is indeed a driver of business-cycle transmission, but often through common exposure to foreign cycles rather than just bilateral linkages. Finally, we consider the implications of these empirical results for the “trade-comovement puzzle.”

Modelling Asymmetric Volatility in the Crypto Currency and its Dynamic Relationship with Stock Market

The paper investigates the asymmetric volatility effect of five major cryptocur- rencies and their bilateral linkages with major indices in the Indian stock market. To inves- tigate the bilateral relationship of crypto currency with stock indices, researchers used two major stock indices in the Indian stock market namely, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty. The study used GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models, asymmetric to model the asymmetric volatility effect in the conditional volatility of crypto currencies and stock indices. Johansen’s cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model is used for examining the presence of cointe- gration between selected variables and to analyse the strength of causality among them. The study finds the evidence of cointegration between cryptocurrencies and stock market indices, implying that cryptocurrencies are related to stock indices. Further there is unidirectional relationship among stock and crypto market and crypto currencies having short-lived re- sponse to shocks in stock markets. Even with these currencies’ explosive growth, there are still not many research examining their connection to stock markets. This study will help investor’s those who making investment in currency market or in the stock market to eval- uate the pattern of volatility, interconnection among them, so that they can make crucial investment decisions and diversification strategies. This will help them to gain knowledge about how these two markets move together so they may avoid underestimating risk when building portfolios that contain both kinds of assets.

How alliances form and conflict ensues

In a social network in which friendly and rival bilateral links can be formed, how do alliances between decision-makers form, and what determines whether a conflict will arise? We study a network formation game between ex-ante symmetric players in the laboratory to examine the dynamics of alliance formation and conflict evolution. A peaceful equilibrium yields the greatest social welfare, while a successful bullying attack transfers the victimized player's resources evenly to the attackers at a cost. In within-subject and between-subject laboratory experiments, we find that the relative frequency of peaceful and bullying outcomes increases in the cost of attack. We further examine the dynamics leading to the final network and find that groups tend to coordinate quickly on a first target for attack, while the first attacker entails a non-negligible risk of successful counter-attack. These findings provide insights for understanding social dynamics in group coordination.

Hungarian coaches in Cold War Cuba

ABSTRACT This essay will examine Cold War sport links between two relatively small-sized, satellite countries: Hungary and Cuba, via the activities of Hungarian coaches on the island. These started in the 1960s after the establishment of diplomatic relations and show a concentration in the first half of and the middle of the 1970s. The investigation aims to find out the main reasons and objectives for the presence of Hungarian sport professionals on the island as well as to evaluate the impact of their work. The study begins with providing a brief overview of the evolution of the foreign relations of the Socialist bloc in the 1950s and 1960s and within this context, of Hungarian-Cuban bilateral links, finally narrowing down the analysis on sport relations. In this context, two case studies are presented: one on football and the other on water polo, traditional fields of success for Hungarians, but little known / not popular on the island. The investigation – based on documents of the Hungarian National Archive and contemporary press articles – aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of international (sport) relations in the 1960s and 1970s, adding both to Sport History and New Cold War Studies.

Dynamic models of competition with endogenous network formation. A case of constant output

The paper examines discrete-time network models of competition with a finite planning horizon. Firms produce a homogeneous good in constant quantities and sell it on a common market. In the non-terminal period, the behavior of each firm is characterized by a multi-component profile that includes, among other things, the amount of investment and the structure of bilateral links with partner firms. The latter affects the technological state of the firm and allows it to reduce its current costs. The endogenous structure of partner firms is described by a network. For the models studied, the Nash equilibrium is characterized in a class of open-loop strategies.

Consumer sentiments across G7 and BRICS economies: Are they related?

This paper utilizes fractional integration and cointegration techniques to investigate the stochastic properties of the bilateral linkages between the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) of eight developed economies, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US and five emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, for the time period from 15th January 2010 to 15th July 2019. The univariate results support fractional integration with mean reverting behaviour, with many of the series displaying orders of integration in the interval (0, 1), which connotes that shocks to consumer sentiment have significant long-lasting though reverting effects. From the covariate results and testing for cointegration, we found evidence of cointegration for Australia versus Italy, and France versus Italy. For the BRICS, the only evidence of fractional cointegration is found between Russia and India. Some policy implications of the results obtained are also mentioned at the end of the article.

Linkage for Metrosert to CCT-K9 via the EURAMET-T.K9.1 bilateral comparison

Main textJustervesenet (JV) and Metrosert carried out a bilateral comparison, EURAMET.T-K9.1, with the purpose of linking Metrosert to the CCT-K9 reference value. Metrosert realised a subset of the fixed points used in the CCT-K9, namely Hg TP, Ga MP, Sn FP and Zn FP. JV participated in the EURAMET.T-K9, whose topology was a set of distinct stars with a pilot that had participated in the CCT-K9. The linkage between EURAMET laboratories was thus via the pilot degree-of-equivalence. A consequence of this organisation was that there could be no linkage for Metrosert (and bilateral links between European laboratories in different stars) until the CCT-K9 was approved and closed. The EURAMET.T-K9.1 measurements finished in 2017, and the final report was published in 2020 after a prolonged review process. However, the CCT-K9 results were not ready, and therefore the EURAMET.T-K9 results could not be analysed. The consequence was that computation of the linkage had to be postponed.The CCT-K9 final report was published in early 2023. The final EURAMET.T-K9 report followed in autumn 2024. This brief report extends the EURAMET.T-K9.1 report with details about the computation and the results of the linkage to the CCT key comparison.To reach the main text of this paper, click on Final Report. Note that this text is that which appears in Appendix B of the BIPM key comparison database https://www.bipm.org/kcdb/.The final report has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication by the CCT, according to the provisions of the CIPM Mutual Recognition Arrangement (CIPM MRA).

Identifying Spatiotemporal Patterns of Multiscale Connectivity in the Flow Space of Urban Agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the rise of global sustainability science have led to the increasing recognition of basins as the key natural geographical units for human–land system coupling and spatial coordinated development. The effective measurement of spatiotemporal patterns of urban connectivity within a basin has become a key issue in achieving basin-related SDGs. Meanwhile, China has been actively working toward co-ordinated regional development through in-depth implementation of the Yellow River Basin’s ecological protection and high-quality development. Urban connectivity has been trending in urban planning, and significant progress has been made on different scales according to the flow space theory. Nevertheless, few studies have been conducted on the multiscale spatiotemporal patterns of urban agglomeration connectivity. In this study, the urban network in the Yellow River Basin was constructed using Tencent population migration data from 2015 and 2019. It was then divided into seven distinct communities to enable analysis at both the basin and community scales. Centrality, symmetry, and polycentricity indices were employed, and the multiscale spatiotemporal patterns of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin were identified using community detection, complex networks, and the migration kaleidoscope method. Community connectivity was notably concentrated at the basin scale with a centripetal pattern and spatial heterogeneity. Additionally, there was a symmetrical and co-ordinated relationship in population migration between the eastern and western regions of the basin, as well as between the internal and external parts of the basin. At the community scale, there was significant variation in the extent of central agglomeration among different communities, with few instances of similar-level, long-distance, and interregional bilateral links. The utilization of multiscale spatiotemporal patterns has the potential to enhance the comprehension of economic cooperation between various cities and urban agglomerations. This understanding can aid decision-makers in formulating sustainable development policies that foster the spatial integration of the basin.

How do High-Rise Buildings Affect the Mental Image of Users? Case Study: Seljuk Tower in Konya

Abstract Due to their physical and identity features, high-rise buildings play a key role in influencing the citizens’ mental image. This study aims to investigate the bilateral link between the environment and people based on user evaluations of the formal and physical features of high-rise buildings. By emphasizing the impacts of formal, functional, and semantic aspects of high-rise buildings on users’ preferences, the study identifies perceptual components and physical features that shape mental image. To this end, using the library research method, the perceptual components of high-rise buildings are introduced as the conceptual model of the study. Then, the relevant components are evaluated using a survey of 217 users of the Seljuk Tower in Konya. The results show that the ‘sense of pleasure when facing the tower’ has the most significant correlation with the users’ perception. The “degree of innovation of the form” and the “materials used in the building” are the other priorities that influence the users” perception. The results also show that affective and cognitive perceptual dimensions influence users’ mental image significantly more than evaluative and interpretative dimensions.

The globalization of corporate control

The internationalization of corporate control is a complex and poorly understood aspect of globalization, as it is challenging to trace controlling shareholders due to often opaque structures of ownership. We identify controlling shareholders for 22,000 listed firms to study the globalization of control. The network of international control appears very sparse, with strong home bias. A baseline gravity structure works well, as bilateral links are more potent for populous, affluent, and proximate countries. Institutions and tax haven status at source and destination play a modest role. Legal similarities, economic policy coordination, and cultural, linguistic, and historical ties play a non-negligible role telling of asset market and informational frictions; policy and legal similarities matter for financial institutions and banks, while informational/cultural barriers for individuals/families. International diversification motives play no major role. The results have implications for theoretical works on the internationalization of corporate control markets.

Changes in Global Power Relations, Geopolitical Complexity and Nepal's National Security Challenges


 There are clear signs that the balance of power in the globe is shifting. The USA, an established superpower, and China, a developing superpower, are vying for the world's attention. Eventually, Russia is showing strength to establish herself as one of the other axis powers to transform the global order from unipolar to multipolar. India, Nepal's immediate neighbor with an open border and decades-old, strong bilateral links, is also evolving into a regional power, or at the very least, is on track to appear as the world's second-largest economy in near future. In this juncture, Nepal is more of security significance to China, India, and the US due to its geostrategic location. Nepal, which is constrained by a number of treaties with India, has already declared its support for both the US Millennium Challenge Corporation and China's Belt and Road Initiative. The New World Order has seen a new regional security climate in South Asia and growing polarization leading to large power rivalry forming a China-India plus the US . Additionally, attempts are being made to strengthen the security ties between the US and Nepal through the State Partnership Program (SPP) and with China through the Chinese Global Security Initiative (GSI), both of which may pose serious challenges to Nepal's national security. Thus, Nepal must maintain strict nonalignment foreign policy, increase the use of soft powers, and take a proactive, impartial, and balanced attitude in its diplomatic operations in order to face the expanding national security challenges resulted from geopolitical complexity. Also, Nepal needs to maintain strategic balance among the great powers, promoting the value of green energy and nurturing soft power. For Nepal, accomplishments of such goals and objectives through the preservation of the Himalayas, promoting Nepal's rich cultural heritage of the Buddha and accelerating mililtary diplomacy in the UNPKO have been indispensable. Nepal's foreign and national security policy should be both inside and outward looking, fostering her regional and the multilateral engagements in SAARC, BIMSTEC, Shanghai Cooperation, and the United Nations.

The pandemic emergency asset purchase and the sovereign bond market connectedness

We examined the extent to which the biggest euro area sovereign bond markets are connected during the 2017-2020 period. Accordingly, we used the recent Gabaue (2020)'s approach viewed as an alternative to Diebold and Yilmaz's volatility connectedness methodology. We find that such markets are considerably connected during the whole period and the spillovers are relatively time varying. The results also show that the Spanish bond market is the primary net transmitter of shocks, followed by the Italian bond market, while the markets for Germany and France are the main net receivers. Second, we highlight some contribution of ECB's asset purchase and other monetary policy announcements to bilateral spillovers. Also, some pronounced spillovers are found to be generated from the monetary policy in US. Finally, the effect differs widely across bilateral linkages in terms of sign and magnitudes. A likely explanation is that investors started discriminating more through markets.

Time-Varying Network Connectedness Between the Organizational Ecology of Transportation and Storage Firms and Macroeconomic Variables

Abstract Research background: Environmental factors are not adequately addressed in organizational ecology studies. At the same time, it is known that the theory has not received enough attention except for North America, which is the emerging point. Purpose: We aim to examine macroeconomic connectedness between the organizational ecology of transportation and storage firms and macroeconomic variables such as price and production indexes. Research methodology: This paper discusses the relation among the following variables within the framework of macroeconomic connectedness via organizational ecology theory. The variables are FOUNDINGS, DISBANDINGS, TRNSP-CPI, PPI IPI and ENERGY. We use the TVP-VAR based Diebold-Yılmaz Connectedness approach in the analysis of the data. Results: DISBANDING is the net transmitter throughout the entire period. FOUNDING is mainly a net shock receiver during the COVID-19 period and transmitter in other periods. TRANS-CPI and PPI are risk receivers throughout the entire period, and even the shocks they transmit increased in the post-2018 period. ENERGY and IPI are in shock receiver status throughout the entire period. The received shocks of IPI from others have decreased with the effect of the lockdown experienced during the COVID-19 period. Novelty: The investors can hedge against risk by looking at industry production capacity and the number of firm closures, considering the net bilateral link between the indices, and calculating the appropriate time period for establishing a firm. Connectedness indices vary considerably over the sampling period, which indicates that investors must dynamically adjust their position in the industry.

Origins of international factor structures

We show that exchange rate correlations tend to be explained by the global trade network while consumption correlations tend to be explained by productivity correlations. Sharing common trade linkages with other countries increases exchange rate correlations beyond bilateral linkages. We explain these findings using a model of the global trade network with market segmentation. Interdependent global production generates international comovements, while market segmentation disconnects the drivers of exchange rate correlations from the drivers of consumption correlations. Moreover, we show that the trade network generates common factors found in exchange rates. Our findings offer a trade-based account of the origins of international comovements and shed light on important frictions in international markets.

Poverty, ICT and Economic Growth in SADC Region: A Panel Cointegration Evaluation

Although there is a wealth of evidence on the relationship between economic growth and poverty or poverty and information and communication technology (ICT), there are few studies on the interaction between the three factors. The triangle relationship between poverty, information and communication technology, and economic growth in SADC were investigated in this study from 2005 to 2019. The research looked at how ICT and economic growth impact poverty in SADC countries, using the instruments of the Mean-Group FMOLS, Mean-Group DOLS, and Robustness Mean-Group Estimators in achieving its major objective. The principal component analysis was employed in generating a single index value for ICT and the data were subjected to relevant econometric tests to achieve robust results. Findings showed that all the variables exhibited poverty-reducing effects in SADC except inflation. Results confirm the existence of the “leapfrogging” hypothesis for the region. It is necessary to strengthen existing bilateral links among member nations of the area to maintain the benefits of ICT’s poverty-reducing impacts, economic growth, financial development, and trade openness. As applicable in other advanced and some emerging economies, the digital competence of the region needs to be synchronized for effective ICT service delivery.

Financial transparency and anomalous portfolio investment flows: A gravity analysis

The applied literature on money laundering and financial crime uses ad-hoc gravity equations as a workable empirical strategy to estimate illicit (dirty) money flows. It lacks reliable data as well as solid theoretical underpinnings. We contribute i) exploiting the theory of portfolio investments to empirically derive a global picture of anomalous money flows over time; ii) correlating these anomalies with the degree of compliance with international transparency standards of 85 origin and 214 destination countries over the period 2000–2015. Our results show: i) the difference between the estimates from theoretically-underpinned gravity models of investments and real data can be used to assess anomalous flows that transit through official channels; ii) non-compliance with international transparency standards affects the probability of observing anomalous flows in global financial data; iii) a global map of illicit/anomalous flows can be derived from official statistics; iv) flipping the narrative on “risky countries” to “risky bilateral links” allows to better investigate push and pull factors of anomalous flows; v) the state of offshore secrecy is not a stronger determinant of anomalous flow than onshore secrecy. The full dataset of bilateral anomalies resulting from our work is freely available for further research.

Diabetes and SARS-CoV-2-Is There a Mutual Connection?

SARS-CoV-2, a newly emerged virus described for the first time in late 2019, affects multiple organs in humans, including the pancreas. Here, we present the bilateral link between the pathophysiology of diabetes and COVID-19, with diabetes being COVID-19 comorbidity, and a complication of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Analysis of clinical data indicates that patients with chronic conditions like diabetes are at increased risk of severe COVID-19, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death compared to the healthy subjects. Further, we show that SARS-CoV-2 infection might be also associated with the development of new-onset diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis. We then discuss the options for studying SARS-CoV-2 infection in pancreatic settings, including the use of human pluripotent stem cell-derived pancreatic organoids. Further, we review the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptors in different pancreatic cell types and the infection efficiency based on pancreatic sections from COVID-19 patients and primary human islet in vitro studies. Finally, we discuss the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on human pancreatic cell homeostasis, focusing on β-cells.

Investigating the bidirectionality of the relationship between residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts and subjective wellbeing on support for tourism development

This study advances the bidirectional relationship between residents’ perceived tourism impacts and subjective wellbeing, as well as examines the consequential effects on support for tourism development. The bottom-up formative and top-down reflective structural models were proposed based on the bottom-up and top-down theories of subjective wellbeing and Social Exchange Theory. The models were empirically tested with a sample of 466 residents in Macao. Partial least squares-structural equation modelling was employed in data analysis. Results reveal the co-existence of the bottom-up and top-down effects, and also confirm the significant positive impacts of tourism benefits and wellbeing on attitudes toward tourism. Findings suggest the interplay of tourism impacts and wellbeing in forming a virtuous loop, thereby driving support for tourism through mutual enhancing effects. This study validates the bidirectionality between perceived tourism impacts and subjective wellbeing under the integrative framework of the bottom-up and top-down theories. The bidirectionality signifies that subjective wellbeing should be operationalized by scales following its formative or reflective nature under investigation. Furthermore, the bilateral linkages could be exploited by promoting perceived tourism benefits, mitigating perceived tourism costs and fostering subjective wellbeing in order to uphold residents’ support for tourism for its sustainable development through the social exchange mechanism.

The network structure of global tax evasion evidence from the Panama papers

This paper builds on recent insights from network theory and on the rich dataset made available by the Panama Papers in order to investigate the micro-economic dynamics of tax-evasion. We model offshore financial entities documented in the Panama Papers as links between jurisdictions in the global network of tax evasion. A quantitative analysis shows that the resulting network, far from being a random collection of bilateral links, has key features of complex networks such as a core-periphery structure and a fat-tail degree distribution. We argue that these structural features imply that policy must adopt a systemic perspective to mitigate tax evasion. We offer three sets of insights from this perspective. First, we identify through centrality measures tax havens that ought to be priority policy targets. Second, we show that efficient tax treaties must contain exchange information clauses and link tax-havens to non-haven jurisdictions. Third, we show that the optimal deterrence strategies for a social-planner facing a strategic tax-evader in a Stackelberg competition can be characterized using the notion of Bonacich centrality.

Exploring Low-Cost Opportunities for China to Fulfil its Ndcs Through Bilateral Ets Linkages: Implications and Mechanisms

Exploring Low-Cost Opportunities for China to Fulfil its Ndcs Through Bilateral Ets Linkages: Implications and Mechanisms