Betting Industry Research Articles

Prediction of tennis match results based on logistic regression

More and more people like tennis, and the demand for the accuracy of predicting the results of tennis matches in sports betting is getting higher and higher. In this paper, a model is built to predict the results of tennis matches. In this paper, we first use the random forest model to analyze the factors that will have an impact on the outcome of the game, and the authors have selected out five factors that may have an impact on the outcome, which are: break of serve, Serve, Score, Net points , And they were assigned proportionally and the distribution was Break of serve 34.10%, Serve 24.30%, Score 38.00%, Net points 3.60% and using these proportions the influencing factors were calculated numerically, in this paper, the calculated value is named “momentum”. Then Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to analyze the relationship between momentum and match results, and the analysis found that the correlation between momentum and match results was as high as 0.807. Finally, a logistic regression model was used to predict and test the results of tennis matches. The final test results found that the model established in this paper has a high accuracy rate, and the research results also provide a new idea for tennis betting industry.

In-game soccer outcome prediction with offline reinforcement learning

Predicting outcomes in soccer is crucial for various stakeholders, including teams, leagues, bettors, the betting industry, media, and fans. With advancements in computer vision, player tracking data has become abundant, leading to the development of sophisticated soccer analytics models. However, existing models often rely solely on spatiotemporal features derived from player tracking data, which may not fully capture the complexities of in-game dynamics. In this paper, we present an end-to-end system that leverages raw event and tracking data to predict both offensive and defensive actions, along with the optimal decision for each game scenario, based solely on historical game data. Our model incorporates the effectiveness of these actions to accurately predict win probabilities at every minute of the game. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, achieving an accuracy of 87% in predicting offensive and defensive actions. Furthermore, our in-game outcome prediction model exhibits an error rate of 0.1, outperforming counterpart models and bookmakers’ odds.

Modelling dependence in football match outcomes: Traditional assumptions and an alternative proposal

The approaches routinely used to model the outcomes of football matches are characterized by strong assumptions about the dependence between the number of goals scored by the two competing teams and their marginal distribution. In this work, we argue that the assumptions traditionally made are not always based on solid arguments. Although most of these assumptions have been relaxed in the recent literature, the model introduced by Dixon and Coles in 1997 still represents a point of reference in the betting industry. While maintaining its conceptual simplicity, alternatives based on modelling the conditional distributions allow for the specification of more comprehensive dependence structures. In view of this, we propose a straightforward modification of the usual Poisson marginal models by means of thoroughly chosen marginal and conditional distributions. Careful model validation is provided, and a real data application involving five European leagues is conducted. The novel dependence structure allows to extract key insights on league dynamics and presents practical gains in several betting scenarios.

Research on predicting football matches based on handicap data and BPNN

Football is one of the most influential sports in the world, and billions of people around the globe pay much attention to the football matches. With the growing popularity of football and the continuous development of the football betting industry, the prediction of the outcomes of football matches has become a hot topic in the commercial operations of sports especially footballs in recent years. It is also an important subject of academic research. In this paper, we develop a football match result prediction model based on the back propagation neural network. We take the German Bundesliga competitions as the research object in this paper. In addition to utilizing historical statistic data and team attributes from previous matches, we also incorporate a new dataset, known as handicap data, which refers to the odds data of the football matches, as the input layer of the BPNN (back propagation neural networks) for prediction. We also innovatively use varying numbers of hidden nodes, which greatly improves the prediction accuracy and stability of the model. Experimental results indicate that the average prediction accuracy of this football match prediction model is around 57.2%, with the highest prediction accuracy reaching 59.8% and the lowest prediction accuracy at 53.8%. The prediction model demonstrates relative stability, with no significant fluctuations in prediction accuracy.

Blockchain - Decentralized Bookmaker

Blockchain has become one of the great drivers of technological evolution of nowadays, making industries interested in the possible applications of that technology. One of the sectors that can benefit from this technology is the online betting industry. According to Statista, the total value of transactions carried out in this industry will be 92.9 billion dollars in 2023. Therefore, the need to make transactions more transparent is undoubtedly one of the main requirements of the betting industry, which promotes continuous technological development in the search for ideal solutions.This “technology” allows the creation of records that cannot be falsified. The applicability of this technology in the betting industry can be very attractive in terms of ensuring greater transparency in transactions.Furthermore, in order to decentralize the organization, it is also intended to implement a DAO governance model. This model aims to solve a centralized governance problem and, therefore, consists of governance based on the code and not on a single person/entity.In the scope of this paper, it was possible to demonstrate through a proof-of-concept solution, the applicability of Blockchain and the DAO governance model in a bookmaker. Thie solution was designed and implemented on the Ethereum Blockchain platform, using smart contracts. The results obtained in the comparison study showed that the solution is viable and presents advantages compared to traditional solutions.

Towards a critical realist approach to the dark side of digital transformation

The Dark Side of Information Systems (IS) is a school of thought which explores the detrimental consequences that can arise from IS phenomena such as digital transformation (DT). Critical Realism (CR), meanwhile, is a philosophical approach which can lend a deeper understanding of dark phenomena thanks to its emphasis upon the role of deep-lying, generative mechanisms. However, as our paper demonstrates, the extant research base applying a CR approach in the exploration of dark phenomena in general is small with respect to examining the potential dark consequences of DT. Our paper therefore introduces the CR philosophical approach to the research of dark phenomena, through a case study of the digital transformation of Britain's land-based betting industry. This example highlights how a CR approach unearthed a generative mechanism formed by the productivity of digital platform-based forms of gambling. Whilst platforms provide novel gambling markets and ease-of-access which may be seen positively by the consumer, our example shows that the generative mechanism formed by the productivity of platform gambling gives rise to the continuous exploitation of staff and customers alike in addition to the continuous accumulation of capital by operator. We demonstrate that, as opposed to specific, pre-identified dark phenomena such as addiction or technostress, dark phenomena caused by generative mechanisms may be unknown, perceived positively or differently over time. A CR approach can facilitate a deeper understanding of how these generative mechanisms and subsequent dark phenomena emerge and evolve, and promote wiser approaches to DT.

A Segmentation Analysis of American Sports Bettors by Involvement

Sports betting in the United States is exploding in popularity and has the potential to change the way sports fans interact with sports properties and sports content. However, not all sports bettors are the same, and market segmentation research provides a resource for more targeted communication and marketing strategies. Utilizing behavioral and psychographic data, the current study segmented 1,077 sports bettors by involvement. The segments were then contrasted on a number of factors within the framework of Mowen’s 3M model of motivation and personality. A sample of 513 nonbetting sports fans was also included as a segment within the analyses. Statistically significant differences were found at the motivational, elemental, compound, and surface trait levels between the betting segments and between the betting and the nonbetting sports fans. The findings point to a strong emotional draw regardless of involvement yet a clear need for the betting industry to educate on issues related to jurisdictional legality and common language.

Odds-wise view: Whose ideas prevail in the global integrity campaigns against match-fixing?

The global expansion of sports betting has resulted in the formation of (inter)national governing regimes aimed at sustaining revenue and regulating attendant issues, including match-fixing. This article explores the workings of these regimes vis-à-vis the management of match-fixing issues in sport. More particularly, this article focuses on betting monitoring programmes as countermeasures against match-fixing and conceptualises these as social instruments that ultimately define issues and influence the wider integrity agenda of anti-match-fixing campaigns. Analysing documentary, observation and interview data from two disparate monitoring programmes, the results show that betting monitoring is a technical extension of corporate risk management, invariably reflecting the business interests of the betting industry. Therefore, the operating logic of betting monitoring defines match-fixing as an act of sabotaging the competitive edge of betting companies. Moreover, this interest-laden paradigm reigns within the broader policy agenda of sport integrity by equating the betting industry's interest with that of sport. From this, the article suggests that betting monitoring plays a part in the legitimation of commercial gambling by reframing the issue of match-fixing as a common enemy that gambling and sport join forces to combat, not a risk that gambling brings to sport.

Developing a Simulated Microcosm of a Contemporary Betting Exchange for the Discovery of Transferable and Profitable Algorithmic Betting Strategies

Since the dotcom boom of the early 2000s the betting industry has been transformed by the rise of betting exchanges, from a market dominated solely by traditional bookmakers, to one in which punters have a variety of wagering options. These exchanges bring together populations of bettors with varying and opposing views in the same way as traditional exchanges operating within the world's major financial markets. As a result the rise of algorithmic trading within the financial markets has been similarly observed within betting markets. The design and implementation of new financial trading algorithms is an arduous task due to the difficulty in obtaining high-quality data that can be used to evaluate a strategies' performance. As such Synthetic Data Generators (SGDs), such as Cliff's Bristol Stock Exchange (2012), have been developed to provide a test-bed in which researchers can develop trading algorithms and investigate market dynamics. This thesis therefore describes the design, implementation, and subsequent evaluation, of a novel asynchronous implementation of the Bristol Betting Exchange (BBE), the rationale and high-level design of which can be found in Cliff 2021. BBE provides an agent-based simulation model of a contemporary sports-betting exchange which will enable both researchers and industrial users to develop algorithmic betting agents and investigate previously unexplored betting market dynamics.

THE IMPACT OF THE BETTING INDUSTRY ON SPORTS

Sports betting is the oldest form of gambling in the world. In the beginning, it was simply a leisure activity. We are currently talking about a multi-billion-euro deal. The sports betting industry has changed more in 15 years than in the last 50 years. In the 1950s, sports betting began to enter the world and almost nothing changed until the beginning of the 21st century. However, with the onset of the new millennium, online betting has changed the landscape dramatically, and is now developing at a fast pace than ever before. The future is always unpredictable, but we will try to imagine it based on current trends in sports betting. The paper "The impact of the betting industry on sports" aims to present a series of aspects regarding the history of sports games, the types of sports games existing today, a brief highlight of the Romanian sports games market and a short presentation of the positive and negative effects on sports.

Self Service Technology and Customer Satisfaction in the Nigerian Online Sport Betting Industry

The eruption in technological innovation is felt in every industry of which the service industry is not exempted. This study examines the effect of SST on customer satisfaction among customers of the sport betting industry in a typical growing economy. Although extant literatures are replete with the effect of SST on customer satisfaction, empirical investigation on the nexus between e-service quality andcustomer satisfactions in the fast-growing sport betting sector is inchoate hence, earns the need for the research. The main objective is to empirically investigate on the nexus between SST and customer satisfaction. To achieve this objective, a survey research was adopted, and unit of analysis represented online bettors in Anambra state. Quota sampling andquestionnaire was the sampling technique and research instrument respectively. A sample size of was drawn using cochran’s formula for unknown population. The internal consistency of the instrument was tested using Cronbach alpha coefficient test, with the entire variable above 0.70. The data was processed using SPSS version 23 and hypothesized nexus between SST and customer satisfaction analysed using multiple regression analysis. The finding revealed that accessibility, security and website design have a positive and significant effect on customer satisfaction while reliability showed a positive but non-significant relationship amongst online bettors in Anambra state. It was recommended that sport betting industry should ensure that their website layout is easily navigated and understood; that they should draw knowledge from banks and bear the data cost bettors incur in the process of betting. Finally, they should ensure a quick and prompt pay-out facility. Keywords : Self Service Technology, Customer Satisfaction, Online Sport Betting, Nigeria DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/12-8-01 Publication date: March 31 st 2020

ФЕНОМЕН КРИПТОВАЛЮТИ: СУТНІСТЬ, МЕХАНІЗМ ВИНИКНЕННЯ, ПРОБЛЕМИ ВИКОРИСТАННЯ

Досліджено процес виникнення криптовалюти як частини криптоекономіки (цифрової економіки), в основі якої лежить принципово нова технологія – блокчейн. Біткоїни – це цифрова криптовалюта, створена в 2008 році невідомим математиком Сатоши Накамото. Визначають такі властивості Bitcoin: 1) нематеріальність; 2) не підконтрольність; 3) анонімність; 4) наявність вартісної основи; 5) умовно обмежений ресурс завдяки введенню обернено пропорційної функції швидкості сумарно видобутих біткоїнів; 6) відкритість і доступність для кожного. Усі перелічені властивості забезпечують ті якості біткоїну, що роблять його грошима. Видобуток біткоїнів настільки значний, що великі обсяги споживаної електроенергії при майнінгу біткоїнів породжують проблему не лише фінансових спекуляцій, а й посилення навантаження на зовнішнє середовище. Злочини, пов’язані з біткоїном, полягають у їхньому використанні при злочинних операціях. Стрімке поширення біткоїну спонукало до розробки правил його регулювання, оподаткування, дозвільних документів, оформлення операцій та прав власності, механізмів захисту від неправомірних дій. Проте уніфікації норм регулювання перешкоджають розбіжності у його правовому розумінні в різних країнах.

Gli effetti del processo di liberalizzazione sulle dinamiche di mercato nel settore delle scommesse sportive in Italia

Negli ultimi anni in molti Paesi il settore dei giochi pubblici è stato interessato da uno spostamento da un modello di regolamentazione che prevede la gestione diretta dei giochi da parte di agenzie governative in regime di monopolio, verso altri modelli di regolamentazione più ‘aperti' alla concorrenza. Anche in Italia si è ormai affermato un modello di gestione dei giochi pubblici che, seppur controllato dallo Stato, è caratterizzato da un maggior coinvolgimento dell'imprenditoria privata rispetto al passato. Se si guarda nello specifico al segmento di gioco che, insieme a quello del Lotto, ha la più lunga tradizione in Italia, quello delle scommesse sportive, l'affermazione di un sistema di regolamentazione più aperto ai privati è la conseguenza di un profondo processo di liberalizzazione avviato negli anni Novanta del secolo scorso e intensificatosi a partire dai primi anni del nuovo millennio. Obiettivo generale del lavoro è analizzare gli effetti del processo di liberalizzazione sulle dinamiche di mercato nel settore delle scommesse sportive in Italia. L'analisi empirica svolta ha consentito di mostrare che in questo settore si sono verificati alcuni effetti tipici dei processi di liberalizzazione, quali l'aumento delle quantità e della varietà dei consumi, la riduzione dei prezzi medi di mercato, l'abbassamento delle barriere all'entrata e l'ingresso di nuovi operatori, e ha permesso di studiare l'effetto di tali cambiamenti sulle logiche competitive del business.

Marketing and Advertising Online Sports Betting: A Problem Gambling Perspective

In this article, online sports betting is explored with the objective of critically examining the potential impact on problem gambling of the emerging product features and advertising techniques used to market it. First, the extent of the issue is assessed by reviewing the sports betting prevalence rates and its association with gambling disorders, acknowledging the methodological difficulties of an unambiguous identification of what exactly constitutes sports-related gambling today. Second, the main changes in the marketization of online betting products are outlined, with specific focus on the new situational and structural characteristics that such products present along with the convergence of online betting with other adjacent products. Third, some of the most prevalent advertising master narratives employed by the betting industry are introduced, and the implications for problem gamblers and minors are discussed.

Fixed-Odds Betting Terminals: a Briefing

Spending on fixed odd betting terminals (FOBTs) makes up only 13.6% of the UK’s total gambling expenditure. This is less than half the amount spent on either lotteries or online gambling. The amount spent on FOBTs has been greatly exaggerated in the media as a result of confusion about what is staked and what is lost. Britain currently has fewer betting shops than at any time since 2003 and has barely half as many as it had in the 1960s. There is no evidence of a rise in problem gambling since 1999. Rates of problem gambling in Britain are low by international standards. FOBTs are one way for the incumbent betting industry to keep pace with changing tastes in a digital world. Regulation cannot afford to be anachronistic in a market in which punters can place unlimited bets on their mobile phones. Existing regulation and taxation is more than adequate, if not excessive, for a gambling product that is only available in licensed, adult-only establishments.

The liquidity advantage of the quote-driven market: Evidence from the betting industry

Even though betting exchanges are considered to be the superior business model in the betting industry due to less operational risk and lower information costs, bookmakers continue to be successful. We explain the puzzling coexistence of these two market structures with the advantage of guaranteed liquidity in the bookmaker market. Using matched panel data of over 1.8 million bookmaker and betting exchange odds for 17,410 soccer matches played worldwide, we find that the bookmaker offers higher odds and bettor returns than the betting exchange when liquidity at the betting exchange is low.

Assessment of the Link between the Betting Industry and Financial Crime: Application to Association Football

The aim of this work is to bring into perspective new developments in the betting industry. Sports and entertainment betting increase in turnover and complexity over the past five years. With the leverage of communication technology the betting sector became very similar to the financial markets. Bets and particularly sports bets that can be bought and sold in real time are similar to financial derivatives. Thus a betting underwriter is similar to a trading house or investment banking. If the investment industry is very regulated and supervised the betting industry is completely unregulated. Few major cases of financial crime linked to the betting industry were pointed recently by investigators. We emphasize here the main mechanism that use the betting as underlying for financial crime. Match fixing and money laundry are the main fields where the betting industry intersect with crime. We describe here few mechanisms that can generate illicit profits from the betting industry. We will simulate the activity of a 'boiling' room that can manipulate the odds and that can thorough the payment links laundry black proceedings. Finally we will provide with size of the amounts involved in crime and the links with cross-national capital flow

The Liquidity Advantage of Quote-Driven Markets: Evidence from the Betting Industry

Even though betting exchanges are considered to be the superior business model in the betting industry due to less operational risk and lower information costs, bookmakers continue to be successful. We explain the puzzling coexistence of these two market structures with the advantage of guaranteed liquidity in the bookmaker market. Using matched panel data of over 1.8 million bookmaker and betting exchange odds for 17,410 soccer matches played worldwide, we find that the bookmaker offers higher odds and bettor returns than the betting exchange when liquidity at the betting exchange is low.

Betting Scandals and Attenuated Property Rights How Betting Related Match Fixing Can Be Prevented in Future

Recently, a number of high-profile betting scandals have shocked European football. Since such scandals threaten the integrity of the sport, which is one of its major assets, football officials have taken prominent measures to avoid further scandals. Unfortunately, these measures have not yet been successful. Additional or different measures seem to be necessary to protect the integrity of the sport. In this paper we analyze the economic causes of betting scandals from a property rights perspective. The analysis consists of three parts. First, we show that after a continuous attenuation of property rights over the last decades, football fixtures and results today are a costless input for the business model of the large industry of bookmakers and betting platforms. In the second part, we explain the economic responses of the betting industry to the property rights attenuation and the resulting facilitation of betting scandals. In the third part, we evaluate three alternative solutions to the problem: taxation, regulation, and property rights allocation and enforcement. The third approach is especially promising and has been successfully used in other industries as well.

How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies

AbstractThis paper assesses the international efficiency of the European football betting market by examining the forecastability of match outcomes on the basis of the information contained in different sets of online and fixed odds quoted by six major bookmakers. The paper also investigates the profitability of strategies based on: combined betting, simple heuristic rules, regression models and prediction encompassing. The empirical results show that combined betting across different bookmakers can lead to limited but highly profitable arbitrage opportunities. Simple trading rules and betting strategies based on forecast encompassing are found capable of also producing significant positive returns. Despite the deregulation, globalization and increased competition in the betting industry over recent years, the predictabilities and profits reported in this paper are not fully consistent with weak‐form market efficiency. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.