Flyvbjerg Research Articles

Philosophical presuppositions in ‘computational thinking’—old wine in new bottles?

Abstract ‘Computational thinking’ (CT) is highlighted in research literature, societal debates, and educational policies alike as being of prime significance in the 21st century. It is currently being introduced into K–12 (primary and secondary education) curricula around the world. However, there is no consensus on what exactly CT consists of, which skills it involves, and how it relates to programming. This article pinpoints four competing claims as to what constitutes the defining traits of CT. For each of the four claims, inherent philosophical presuppositions are identified concerning the nature of thinking, problem-solving, and human–computer relationships. It is argued that most of these philosophical presuppositions are very similar to ones that Hubert Dreyfus and Donald Schön addressed forty to fifty years ago. Therefore, claims about the power of CT raise old discussions in a new disguise. Dreyfus and Schön argued that the presuppositions were wrong. Do their arguments hold and thus defeat contemporary claims about CT? Alternatively, has the technological development since the time of their writings proven them wrong? This article argues that it is necessary to heed the arguments of Dreyfus, Schön, and—later—Bent Flyvbjerg to ensure that CT curricula are built in accord with the value-rational nature of human practice, rather than on misconceived rationalizations of problem-solving, computer use, and computational aspects in the world. However, the pervasive integration of information technology in today's world raises new issues concerning human–machine collaborations that sidetrack the arguments of Dreyfus and Schön. A revised view of CT is required which focusses on articulating how humans can design for, partake in, and critically appraise human–machine collaborations.

Examining Normative Sociology and Phronetic Social Science in the Light of Practical Reason

Normative sociology and phronetic social science are research programmes that aim to overcome the dead end of positivism and the obfuscating effects of cryptonormativity, promising renewed social science disciplines that engage normatively with the public. In this article, I aim to deepen our understanding of social science’s (re)turn to normativity by examining how the disciplinary aims of such programmes fare against their conception of practical reason. I consider Tariq Modood’s presentation of the Bristol School of Multiculturalism as a form of normative sociology and begin from its understanding of practical reason after Michael Oakeshott, before specifying Modood’s recommendations, also with reference to other prominent versions of normative sociology. I then show that Bent Flyvbjerg’s phronetic social science, an Aristotle-inspired programme that has received widespread attention, is a particularly useful object of comparison: it bears high proximity to the Bristol School of Multiculturalism by being contextualist, dialogical, and prising public engagement. Most importantly, it too espouses antirationalist arguments via the emphasis it places on the Aristotelian notion of phronesis (practical wisdom). I argue that Oakeshott’s and Aristotle’s insights on the character and growth of practical reason both clarify and problematize the disciplinary aims of normative sociology and phronetic social science. Thus, to develop and defend normative social science, it is necessary to address a host of resulting challenges, most centrally the following: phronesis as an intellectual virtue based on one’s disposition, character, and experience largely eludes disciplinary-level training of the kind that social scientists and political theorists have received, exercise, or provide to students.

The politics of intelligence failures: power, rationality, and the intelligence process

ABSTRACT This article develops a new approach to analysing intelligence failures. Rather than looking for their causes, intelligence failures are here analysed as part of a politics seeking to reify the value of rationality and the taming of power. To analyse this politics, the article draws on Bent Flyvbjerg’s notion of an asymmetrical relation of power/rationality, according to which power has a productive role that is inseparable from claims to rationality. The asymmetrical relation of power/rationality is used in order to challenge the instrumentalist language that pervades much of the literature on intelligence failures and what can be learned from them.

Measuring the Accuracy of Bus Rapid Transit Forecasts

The research of Dr. Bent Flyvbjerg in the 1990s and early 2000s showed that urban rail projects often cost more than estimated and carried fewer riders than projected, a troubling trend suggesting that the forecasts for urban rail projects were too optimistic in terms of cost and ridership. Inspired by that research, this analysis seeks to extend that framework to analyze Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). A study of forecast vs. actual costs and ridership was conducted for 19 BRT projects in the United States. From this, it was found that the cost projections for these projects tended to be quite accurate, but ridership projections tended to be quite inaccurate and showed a clear tendency towards an optimism bias. As BRT becomes a more common choice for rapid transit investment in the US, this analysis suggests that current ridership forecasting methods still leave much to be desired.

Getting to practical: Complementarity between critical systems thinking and phronetic social science

AbstractFrustration among systems thinking practitioners and academics surfaces from time to time at the apparently limited real‐world influence of systems methodologies and frameworks. Critical systems thinking (CST), in particular, faces many of the challenges common to qualitative research and has the additional challenge that its principal modality is to offer ways of conceptualising. This paper argues that recent explorations of phronetic social science (PSS) provide a useful conceptual frame to discuss and enhance the value of CST. We outline some characteristics of phronetic models and how to conceive and evaluate systemically informed phronetic models. By way of illustration, the paper describes the phronetic framing of two practical tools to support collaborative practice, each built on existing systemic models. Finally, we discuss the potential value of informing PSS with insights drawn from CST, and CST with insights drawn from the emerging field of PSS.

Copenhagen’s Struggle to Become the World’s First Carbon Neutral Capital: How Corporatist Power Beats Sustainability

Nordic cities are often perceived as frontrunners of urban sustainability and their planners increasingly embrace and combine environmentalist ideas with communicative planning approaches. We argue that how corporatist networks promote green growth strategies that can undermine sustainability targets is often overlooked. In this article, we examine how the City of Copenhagen is failing in its efforts to become the world’s first carbon-neutral capital by 2025 partly because of corporatist capture of the decarbonisation agenda. Taking a phronetic social science approach we shed light on the production of knowledge and counter-knowledge in planning conflicts over energy infrastructure, in particular the iconic €530 million Copenhill waste-to-energy plant in Denmark. On one side of the conflict was a green coalition that initially blocked the proposed energy megaplant to defend the city’s ambitious climate targets. On the other side was a corporatist coalition who subsequently succeeded in strong-arming the city council to accept the plant, even though that meant carbon emissions would increase significantly, instead of decreasing. We focus on this U-turn in the planning process as a case of dark planning and a knowledge co-creation fiasco. Our findings reveal how the sustainability concept can be utilised as an empty vessel to promote private sector export agendas. We suggest that environmentalist ideals may stand stronger in planning conflicts if they link up with a broader alternative socio-economic agenda capable of attracting coalition partners. The lesson to be learned for green coalitions is that it is crucial to combine expert, local, and political knowledge to be able to “read” the power configuration and develop strategic and tactical capacity to challenge dominant discourses.

Doing Good and Feeling Good: A Critical Analysis of Human Rights Research

Abstract The question guiding this article is: ‘when is nongovernmental organization (NGO) research useful?’. The first section after the introduction addresses this question directly. It does so by drawing on the author’s personal experience and by considering what scholars say about research done by NGOs on human rights. It then considers Bent Flyvbjerg’s grounded conception of the social sciences as well as what good a checklist could do to curb human rights violations in the maritime sector. The second section of the paper asks a more difficult question: when is NGO research not useful? Drawing on Thomas Sowell’s critique of intellectuals in Intellectuals and Society, this section aims to show that, although people tend to think that working at an NGO is an unassailable good, hidden motivations can—and maybe should—sometimes cast doubt on this assumption. The third section of the paper synthesizes the first two and draws some additional conclusions about other—perhaps better—ways to improve the human condition. The section then concludes that while NGO research might be useful for some specific purposes, well-meaning scholars should not assume that their research into human rights is always useful.

Creating a ‘sustainability sublime’ to enable megaprojects to meet the United Nations sustainable development goals

AbstractDespite cost and schedule overruns and benefits shortfalls, megaprojects (which are large‐scale projects that typically cost over a billion dollars and take years to develop and build) continue to be promoted and built creating a megaproject paradox. Prominent megaproject scholar Bent Flyvbjerg (2014) argued that this could be motivated by four ‘sublimes’—technological, political, economic and aesthetic that drive new megaprojects being put forward despite their poor performance. Recent evidence shows that better governance practices are helping to improve the overall performance of megaprojects. Despite the United Nations setting 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) to be achieved by 2030, there are severe shortfalls in initiatives from governments, public organizations and private businesses endangering the achievement of targets set for these goals. In addition, time is running out to achieve these goals with only a decade left. The current initiatives contributing to these goals appear to be focused on individual SDGs even though many of these are interrelated. This article proposes that if politicians, engineers and scientists, businesses leaders and design thinkers could be motivated by a ‘sustainability sublime’ to create megaprojects that contribute to SDGs, it could benefit both the society and the planet. It also argues that a more integrated view of UN SDGs and a suitable governance structure should be applied to ensure that megaprojects created as a result of the sustainability sublime deliver benefits towards achieving UN SDGs.

Contingencies of Circular Economy: Discourse Hegemony and Institutionalization in Norway

Recent research points out serious weaknesses in the current academic discourses of circular economy, among others the lack of understanding of the politics behind a transition towards circularity. In this paper we thus inquiry: What contingencies does the Circular Economy in Norway discourse carries as part of the discourse structuration and institutionalization? Norway is an extreme case to tackle this question given a state lead initiative to promote circular economy, and the country’s well-known international role in promoting greening discourses. We found two tension points in the current discourse on circular economy: i) International drivers versus regional and local transition arenas and ii) Clearly marked eco-modernization promotion as policy priority versus sectoral transformation. These findings indicate the need for civil society actors to unleash indirect power in order to problematize circular economy through a more radical discourse structuration. Our findings thus contribute with a better understanding of the power dynamics behind the discourse construction of circular economy, and choices made to the technologies and sectors benefiting of the current discourse. Similarly, we call for further phronetic social science perspectives in the study of circular economy. Our results contribute to the academic debate on questions such as where are we going with the circular economy? Who gains and who loses with the circular economy? Is this development of the circular economy desirable? And what should we do about it?

Ensino-aprendizagem da Sabedoria Prática ( Phronesis ) em Administração: Uma Revisão Sistemática

Resumo O objetivo dessa revisão sistemática é investigar de que maneira o conceito da phronesis é relacionado à educação, ensino e aprendizagem na área de Administração e de estudos organizacionais. A phronesis é definida como sabedoria prática, ou prudência, presente em processos de deliberação, decisão e ação. A busca por artigos nas bases Scopus, Ebsco e Web of Science encontrou 37 artigos sobre o tema. A análise desses trabalhos revela os autores mais referenciados, as principais definições e os principais temas de pesquisas a respeito do ensino e aprendizagem em Administração. Ela é abordada segundo cinco principais definições: (a) disposição para o julgamento ou deliberação; (b) percepção do contexto e da situação real; (c) tipo de conhecimento prático; (d) phronetic social science ; e, (e) múltiplas definições. Os temas encontrados abordam: (a) ensino e currículo relacionados à Administração e à ética empresarial; (b) educação e ensino de professores; (c) ensino e elementos da phronesis ; (d) filosofia da educação e phronesis ; (e) profissões e outros cursos superiores; e, (f) educação infantil. Sua relação com as virtudes morais poderia ser mais explorada, pois predominam definições relacionadas à aprendizagem experiencial. Estudos futuros poderiam discutir as práticas, práxis, e abordagens voltadas para ação. JEL Code: Y80, A14, D83.

Maintaining Urban Complexities: Seeking Revitalization without Gentrification of an Industrial Riverfront in Gothenburg, Sweden

This article presents case study research performed in a small-scale and centrally located industrial site by the riverfront in Gothenburg, Ringön. It has been highlighted in municipal visions to develop according to its very own circumstances, meaning small-scale and zoned for industrial use. Being closely located to the historic core of the city and surrounded by large construction sites, Ringön has received a lot of attention lately in local newspapers, research, university education and social media. The area is repeatedly pictured as redundant, with some rough potential to become something of a hipster mekka. However, this coverage mostly recognises newcomers from the creative industries and art, while neglecting existing repair-shops and small-scale manufacturing industries. To picture an area as redundant and in need of improvements, exemplifies a feature of gentrification, where extant qualities are seldom appreciated, and where outsiders define the needs to revitalize.
 The purpose is here to understand and shed light on a diversity of perspectives and interests among Ringön stakeholders, i.e. the insiders, who together affect the development in question. In order to grasp the complexity of the process, I develop a many-faceted narrative in line with Bent Flyvbjerg’s approach to case study research. Meaning-making histories and activities that have come forward in field studies are sorted into eras that are considered lost, still alive, almost lost or recently found. This play of thought is inspired by current discourses on worlds coming to an end, as interpreted by Déborah Danowski and Eduardo Viveiros de Castro. In addition, the concept of “urban glue” from Nigel Thrift is introduced to illustrate how Ringön embodies an era that is certainly still alive.

Exploring the Asymmetrical Relationship Between the Power of Finance Bias and Evidence.

Financial conflicts of interest can influence the design, conduct, and dissemination of medical trials. In attempting to resist "finance bias," critics and proponents of evidence-based medicine (EBM) and its precursors have largely focused on trying to improve evidence. These efforts have led to successes ranging from the 1962 Kefauver-Harris amendments to the US Federal Drug and Cosmetic Act of 1938 to recent recommendations that all trials be published. However, there are two problems with the strategy of trying to improve evidence as a buffer against finance bias. First, without political teeth, rules of evidence can be ignored with relative impunity. This is because, as sociologist Bent Flyvbjerg has pointed out, there is an asymmetry between power (of finance bias) and rationality (evidence), tending towards victory of power in an open confrontation. Second, by improving the way evidence is produced, the process has become more expensive, and thus more susceptible to influence by finance bias. Unless they address the powers behind finance bias directly, critics and proponents may be doomed to lose the war against finance bias, even if they win some battles. For EBM to be effective, the power of finance bias influencing the production and dissemination of evidence needs to be addressed as a priority. This is starting to happen, with initiatives such as the AllTrials campaign, which identifies and exposes unpublished trials. On the other hand, there are reasons to be less optimistic, as Cochrane, the most trusted source of evidence, has become more susceptible to stronger influences from industry.

Oral Evidence: The Government’s Management of Major Projects

This paper presents evidence given by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg to the UK House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee in their Major Projects Inquiry. The evidence covers the Iron Law of megaprojects, exceptions to the Law, UK major project performance compared to other countries, the Channel tunnel specifically, HS2, performance of major IT projects, the benefits of major projects including wider benefits, how to deliver major projects successfully, the political sublime of major projects, the top-three issues for good governance, early warning signs of project failure, and much more.

Statistical Tests as a Hindrance to Understanding: What the Controversy around the “Hiding Hand” Reveals about Research in the Social Sciences and Conceals about Project Management

Summary Albert O. Hirschman’s famous Principle of the Hiding Hand describes an unconscious predisposition of project managers: Projects are launched in the belief that one is prepared for every possible future difficulty. However, some potential problems are overlooked during the planning phase and surprisingly might surface later—making it necessary to deal with them. Recently, this concept was statistically tested by Bent Flyvbjerg in World Development, who concluded that the Principle is “wrong”, “biased” and “potentially disastrous.” However, it is not the Principle of the Hiding Hand that is faulty, but the methodological approach taken by Flyvbjerg. In fact, Flyvbjerg’s analysis is a telling example of what can go wrong if we assess the value of qualitative scholarship merely through the lens of large-n case quantitative analysis. Flyvbjerg seems to overlook both the context of the Hiding Hand and its connection to the work of Albert Hirschman. This article shows how specific notions of rigor can serve as a hindrance to understanding and thus belittle insights by one of the most original thinkers of the 20th century that are still useful in current debates on project management and expert behavior.

Institutional Control of Social Studies Teaching as Phronesis: A Multi-Case Study

This paper presents findings from a multi-case study of social studies educators which focused on the impact of institutional requirements on social studies teaching as phronesis. The concept of phronesis, or practical wisdom of human values, occupies a central space in this study, acting as both the theoretical and methodological framework. As a theoretical framework, Aristotle’s articulation of phronesis, and its distinction from the intellectual states of episteme and techne, guided the development of research questions and acted as an entry point for analysis of participant data concerning the impact of school-based requirements on social studies teaching. As a methodological framework, this study is grounded in Flyvbjerg’s (2001) argument for a “phronetic social science,” which envisions social science work as contributing to dialogue about human values, rather than a vain attempt of strict prediction and explanation. I merge these considerations with the value and utility of qualitative case study, which functions as the study design. Based on this framing, I sought to gain an in-depth understanding of the role that schools play in the development or control of teacher’s practical wisdom and socially-minded educational goals. Answers to this question are discussed through the examination of four different cases of social studies teachers from Alabama. Through a thematic analysis of qualitative data, I illustrate that institutional teaching requirements largely constrained “phronetic” possibilities for social studies education. The major findings indicate that, rather than supporting professional teacher judgments and fostering socially conscious goals, school-based requirements pushed participants to implement technical pedagogies in order to meet pre-determined outcomes. I conclude with a discussion that critically evaluates the nature of contemporary educational reform and considers the place of social studies in this climate.

A case study of critique: Critical perspectives on critical accounting

Abstract As accounting academics, we have a responsibility to act in the public interest as conscience, critic and counselor of society regarding economic, social and environmental justice. In fulfilling this responsibility, we are concerned with how accounting, accountants, and accountability regimes can facilitate democracy by serving the needs of pluralistic communities, giving particular attention to the various underserved constituencies. Informed by Flyvbjerg’s (2001) notion of phronetic social science research that matters, we reviewed 353 articles published in Critical Perspectives on Accounting from 1990 to 2014 identifying the focal constituency(s), the injustice(s) addressed, the groups or institutions responsible for the injustice as well as the proposals for social and political praxis outlined in the studies. Our review indicates that generally the studies identify a somewhat focused, though salient and appropriate, set of economic, social and/or environmental injustices experienced by various constituencies, and to some extent, the studies consider the context and conditions that perpetuate the inequality and injustices. However, as the field matures, there is a need for more robust development of the social and political implications of critical accounting research and for articulating the ideas and implications as action programs. Further, our review suggests that several relevant constituencies such as non-human animals, children, future generations, developing nations, and gender and sex/uality minorities have received little or no attention in the current literature.

Change Research: Narrating Social Change from the Bottom-Up

This essay provides a review of Bent Flyvbjerg’s critique of conventional social science research, including its limitations in applied fields such as social work, followed by a specification of his alternative for a “phronetic social science.” I detail how I with two colleagues practiced phronetic social science in our collaboration with Philadelphia housing activists, including most especially the role of interpretive narrative analysis as part of our case study research. In conclusion, I discuss the somewhat ironic challenges of trying to increase the legitimacy of such activist research in applied fields like social work where an obsession with being seen as scientific is prevalent as a means to improve prestige of applied research. I discuss how we need less top-down research which focuses on a “what works” agenda that serves the management of subordinate populations and more research that provides bottom-up understandings of a “what’s right” agenda tailored to empowering people in particular settings. Real social science research needs to listen to how people on the bottom experience their own subordination so that we can help them overcome their subjugation. Good social science includes taking the perspective of the oppressed in the name of helping them achieve social justice. In the end, there are a number of tension points between the model of conventional social science and phronetic social science that starkly highlight how we need to change research in order do research that promotes positive social change.

Rethinking revisited: insights from an early rethinker

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to review and analyze Albert Hirschman’s landmark bookDevelopment Projects Observed, share its insights for managing big projects, discuss its theoretical implications and how it may contribute to the current understanding of project behavior, project management (PM), and in what way it may encourage the rethinking of PM.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based on an in-depth analysis of Hirschman’s book. The paper draws on the writings of Jeremy Adelman who authored Hirschman’s biography, Cass Sunstein and Michele Alacevich who, respectively, wrote the foreword and afterword of the Brookings Institution classic published in 2014. It also profits from the work of Robert Picciotto who first met Hirschman in 1964, and Bent Flyvbjerg who recently offered a test of validity for Hirschman’s “Hiding Hand” principle.FindingsAlbert Hirschman was an original thinker and, the authors argue in many ways, a father of PM scholarship. His ideas had profound implications for social sciences and lasting influence in academy, policy, and practice. Although, to a great extent based on studies of projects, his ideas have had surprisingly little impact on modern writings of PM. This paper contributes to amending this weakness in current literature on PM. The authors identify in Hirschman’s book a set of core ideas that possess analytical power for explaining problems in contemporary PM. They include the principle of the Hiding Hand, the power of context, the role of complexity and uncertainty, the unexpected project effects, project traits, and latitudes/disciplines. For all his work and way of research, the authors conclude that Hirschman is not only an early behavioral theorist in PM but equally an early rethinker of PM.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that offers a discussion of Hirschman’s ideas on contemporary projects, how to understand them, their behavior, including the principle of the Hiding Hand and other important nuggets of wisdom in his research such as the significance of project traits, latitudes, and disciplines. The authors discuss in what respects these ideas may enlighten PM practice and theory. This paper also conveys the novel idea that Hirschman is an early rethinker of PM.

Online Drug Scenes and Harm Reduction From Below as Phronesis

This article presents a theoretical critique of the notion of harm reduction on the basis of an empirical investigation of a variety of online manifestations of drug culture. Taking a multicase study approach to drug use–related forums, blogs, and “story sites” focused on novel psychoactive substances/“legal high” use and nonmedicinal prescription drug use, our analysis leads us to describe the culture of “harm reduction from below” in terms of the Aristotelian concept of phronesis. We argue that the peer-to-peer co-creation of knowledge, sharing, and support constitutes an emergent and constantly evolving form of “practical wisdom” with respect to drugs. Drawing on Flyvbjerg’s accounts of phronetic social science as a practice, which proposes a permeable boundary between theoretical and practical inquiry, and Stenger’s account of the “collective voice from below” as always embedded within an “ecology of practices,” we offer an interpretation of the online dimension of drug taking in terms of drug users’ shared aim of “doing drugs well.” The investigation of online life in terms of the multiple contexts of drug-related communicative exchange thus allows us to identify harm reduction from below as an ethical practice inherent in a variety of online drug scenes.

The making and impacts of a classic text in megaproject management: The case of cost overrun research

This paper presents a case study of the making and impacts of a classic text in the field of megaproject management. It focuses on Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Skamris Holm and Søren Buhl's article Cost Underestimation in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?, which was published in the Journal of the American Planning Association in 2002. The paper shows that classic texts can have a significant impact on megaproject planning theory and practice. Within the academy, classic texts are those that are widely cited and come to define the theoretical terrain, types of research questions that are asked and methods used in subsequent research. They also directly contribute to new megaproject planning methods and shape the public discourse on megaproject delivery. The paper concludes by identifying the key ingredients that make a classic text.