Benchmark Price Research Articles

The European Energy Crisis and the Consequences for the Global Natural Gas Market

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe disruptions in the European gas market with significant repercussions on a global scale. The conflict caused a surge in energy prices, a major reshuffling of global natural gas flows, and a shift in the policy-makers’ agendas toward energy supply security. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the developments in the global gas market in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, focusing in particular on the European gas market and on global LNG trade flows. We first review the characteristics of the gas market in terms of both pricing benchmarks and contractual terms. Next, we analyze the changes to LNG and natural gas production, consumption, and trade flows throughout the European energy crisis. Finally, we review the main policy response to the energy crisis and present some considerations on the gas market outlook. JEL Classification: L95, P28, Q35

Social Cost of Carbon as an International Benchmark to Drive Countries’ Carbon Pricing during the Transition

Building on updated estimates of the social cost of carbon obtained from the most recent literature, this article proposes a social cost of carbon-based benchmark for carbon pricing to drive world countries’ carbon pricing policies up to 2050, consistent with the Paris Agreement targets. By using a dataset on net effective carbon rates developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), we firstly compare both explicit and implicit carbon pricing in 2021 in 71 OECD and non-OECD countries with the social cost of carbon benchmark for 2021 and calculate the degree of internalization of the social cost of carbon averagely related to their carbon pricing instruments. We find that there is a serious gap in current climate policies, which are far from creating optimal pricing conditions to reduce global emissions to levels needed by the Paris Agreement. The economic and distributional feasibility of a full implementation of the carbon pricing benchmark is tested in the same set of countries using two indicators, which are calculated for 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050. Since the test results are income-regressive among income country groups, benchmark implementation by countries within the cooperative approaches of Paris Agreement art. 6 should be accompanied by the creation of an international cooperative fund aimed to recycle at least part of the revenues collected by high-income countries to compensate affected population in lower-income countries.

Seasonal surges and tumbles: Analyzing part D expenditure fluctuations in the Oncology Care Model.

39 Background: Medicare Part D (PD) provides prescription drug coverage through government-contracted private plans. It includes deductible, initial coverage, coverage gap, and catastrophic coverage (CC) phases. During the study period, Medicare reinsured 80% of drug costs above the out-of-pocket threshold (OOPT) in the CC, while also subsidizing costs for low-income beneficiaries with the Low-Income Cost Subsidy (LICS) in other phases. The Oncology Care Model (OCM), Medicare's value-based care model, considers reinsurance payments and LICS for PD drugs when benchmarking and evaluating performance. Methods: Using PD prescription data for 15 practices in The US Oncology Network, we obtained the gross drug costs below (GDCB) and above (GDCA) the OOPT, and LICS for prescriptions over a 6-year period (July 2016 – June 2022). We then evaluated the trends and patterns of per episode Part D expenditures (PEPDE) and LICS. Results: The analysis of 5.12M prescriptions for 99,623 patients revealed that episodes initiating in February and March had the highest PEPDE. However, per episode benchmark prices (PEBP) remained steady throughout. The seasonal variation in PEPDE was due to the PD plan design, with episodes crossing plan years (in January) having the lowest PEPDE. Consequently, performance periods (PP) starting with the calendar year had 15% higher PEPDE. Only 18% of patients received the LICS benefit, with 25% of payments occurring in January, coinciding with the entry of patients into CC. Conclusions: The design of PD plans creates seasonal patterns in PEPDE within models like OCM. Episodes with similar treatment patterns and beneficiary profiles can have different costs based on the start date, but a similar PEBP, leading to inconsistent performance outcomes. To ensure fair evaluation, a risk adjustment method that considers seasonality in the prediction model or balances fluctuations in expenses is needed. The impact of PD changes with the Inflation Reduction Act remains unexplored. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Measure Month of Episode Initiation PEBP $47.8K $46.7K $47.8K $46.7K $46.3K $46.5K $47.4K $46.4K $47.2K $46.3K $46.7K $46.2K PEPDE $28.2K $31.2K $31.0K $29.2K $28.4K $27.7K $26.3K $26.2K $25.7K $25.1K $23.9K $24.0K Prescription Status % of Dispenses by Month of Dispense GDCB 90.7% 83.2% 80.5% 78.2% 76.2% 74.7% 72.7% 71.1% 69.7% 68.3% 66.8% 65.2% GDCA 9.3% 16.8% 19.4% 21.8% 23.8% 25.3% 27.3% 28.9% 30.3% 31.7% 33.2% 34.8% % of patients entering CC 12.5% 8.9% 8.0% 7.9% 8.0% 7.8% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 PEPDE by PP $18.7K $21.8K $21.9K $25.9K $23.5K $28.9K $26.6K $34.2K $30.3K $37.2K $32.9K

Assessing China's solar power potential: Uncertainty quantification and economic analysis

Solar power is vital for China's future energy pathways to achieve the goal of 2060 carbon neutrality. Previous studies have suggested that China's solar energy resource potential surpass the projected nationwide power demand in 2060, yet the uncertainty quantification and cost competitiveness of such resource potential are less studied. Therefore, we applied an integrated framework to simulate China's solar photovoltaic (PV) technical potential, and incorporated potential uncertainty stemming from climate change, land use dynamics, and technological advancements. In addition, we constructed the solar energy supply curve for each province and calculated the economic potential. According to our results, approximately 78.6 % and 99.9 % of China's technical solar PV potential are priced lower than the benchmark price of coal-fired energy in pessimistic and optimistic scenario. These findings highlight the significant technical and economic potential of solar PV as a cost-effective alternative to coal-fired electricity to meet China's growing electricity demands.

Will the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review’s Shared Savings Approach Decrease Value-Based Prices Most for the Most Severe Diseases?

ObjectivesTo identify the types of disease most likely to be affected by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review’s (ICER) shared savings assumptions. MethodsFor diseases with treatments that were Food and Drug Administration approved between 2019 and 2023, annual direct and indirect economic burden and characteristics of each disease were extracted from peer-reviewed literature. ICER’s shared savings methodology was applied 2 ways: 50/50 shared savings and $150 000 cost-offset cap. The primary outcome was the difference in eligible cost savings provided by a hypothetical disease cure under ICER’s 2 shared savings methods. Characteristics of diseases most impacted by these 2 methods were evaluated descriptively. ResultsFood and Drug Administration approved 260 therapies for 89 unique diseases between 2019 and 2023. Shared savings reduced value of a hypothetical cure for hemophilia A most (50/50 method: −$367 670 per year; cap method: −$585 340 per year), followed by acute hepatic porphyria (50/50 method: −$333 948; cap method: −$517 896) and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (50/50 method: −$291 997; cap method: −$433 993). Compared with diseases with annual burdens <$150 000, those ≥$150 000 had earlier disease onset by 22.0 years (age 12.3 vs 34.3), lower life expectancy by 10.6 years (55.8 vs 66.4 years), and lower disease prevalence (4.7 vs 1981.5 per 100 000). Shared savings’ impact on health-benefit price benchmarks was projected to be larger for diseases with shorter life expectancy (ρ = −0.319; p =.005), worse quality of life (ρ = -0.263; P =.020), and lower prevalence (ρ = −0.418; P < .001). ConclusionsICER’s shared savings assumptions would most likely have the largest negative impact on health-benefit price benchmarks for rare, severe, and pediatric diseases.

Integrating Price Benchmarks and Comparative Clinical Effectiveness to Inform the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program

ObjectivesBy September 2024, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) will publicly report the negotiated prices (Maximum Fair Prices) for the first 10 drugs selected for price negotiation. We estimate initial price offers based on net prices, statutorily defined ceilings, and comparative effectiveness data for the 10 drugs and their therapeutic alternatives. MethodsWe utilized net prices and other price benchmarks for the 10 drugs and their therapeutic alternatives. We searched for data on comparative clinical effectiveness for the primary indications. We outlined a range of plausible initial price offers based on CMS guidance and our interpretation of regulatory intent. ResultsFor ibrutinib and ustekinumab, statutorily defined ceiling prices will likely determine the initial price offers. The integration of net pricing and clinical evidence from comparator branded products will inform the initial price offers for apixaban, empagliflozin, etanercept, and insulin aspart. Rivaroxaban and sacubitril/valsartan have therapeutic alternatives that are generics; therefore, CMS may apply a discount to current net prices. To achieve savings in the negotiation of dapagliflozin and sitagliptin, CMS will have to leverage additional negotiation factors because statutory defined ceilings and net prices of therapeutic alternatives are similar or higher. ConclusionsThis analysis sheds light on important price benchmarks and clinical evidence factors for the determination of the initial price offers. Although we were not able to simulate the offer and counter-offer process, our findings provide a transparent and systematic way to produce initial offers that are consistent with CMS guidance.

Price benchmarks of drugs selected for Medicare price negotiation and their therapeutic alternatives.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) are currently negotiating prices with pharmaceutical manufacturers for the first 10 Part D drugs selected for Medicare drug price negotiation. Non-publicly available data, including the net prices of selected drugs and their therapeutic alternatives, will play a central role in the determination of the maximum fair prices (MFPs). To estimate price benchmarks involved in the derivation of the starting point of the CMS initial price offer for the 10 drugs selected for Medicare price negotiation. For the 10 drugs selected for negotiation, we reported (1) the list price, (2) the net price after manufacturer discounts, (3) the maximum negotiated price based on the minimum statutory discount, and (4) the ceiling of the MFP, estimated as the lowest of the latter 2. We also estimated net prices for therapeutic alternatives to the selected drugs. Net prices were estimated using peer-reviewed methodology that isolates commercial discounts negotiated between payers and manufacturers from mandatory discounts under government programs. All price benchmarks were estimated at the product level, for 30-day equivalent dosing, using 2021 data. 6 products (apixaban, rivaroxaban, empagliflozin, sacubitril/valsartan, etanercept, and insulin aspart) had therapeutic alternatives with lower net prices, which will be integrated with clinical benefit data in the derivation of initial price offers. The other 4 products (ustekinumab, ibrutinib, sitagliptin, and dapagliflozin) had therapeutic alternatives with higher net prices than the drugs selected for negotiation. For ibrutinib and ustekinumab, prices based on the minimum discounts were considerably lower than the estimated net prices and will likely set the starting point of the initial price offer. For dapagliflozin and sitagliptin, the starting point of the initial price offer will likely resemble their existing net prices. Our analyses identify different negotiation scenarios for the first 10 drugs selected for Medicare price negotiation, based on key elements involved in the derivation of the initial price offer. Our analyses can help improve transparency in the negotiation process, because the CMS is not required to reveal the information used in the derivation of price offers.

Can China's energy quota trading impact the market performance and policy effects of carbon emissions trading?

With the gradual shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions, energy quota trading (EQT) and carbon emissions trading (CET) policies will be implemented in parallel in China. EQT policy will significantly affect the market performance and policy effects of CET, which consequently affects the dual control of carbon emissions. Therefore, constructing a system dynamics model coupling the national CET, EQT, and electricity markets, this paper researches the impact of EQT policy and its parameter design on the market performance and policy effects of CET through scenario analysis. The results show that: (1) Implementing EQT policy will reduce CET price and trading volume, negatively affecting CET market performance. This indicates that there is a certain substitution between EQT and CET. (2) EQT policy can enhance the emission reduction and decarbonization effects of CET policy. By curbing thermal power investment and generation and promoting green power, the EQT policy reduces carbon emissions by about 4.87% and optimizes the power supply structure. (3) To scientifically design the EQT policy parameters, lower energy saving targets and energy quota benchmark prices can alleviate the negative impact on CET market performance, but are not conducive to improving CET policy effects.

A simplified approach to benchmark, relative return, and asset pricing

ABSTRACT This analysis provides a much simpler and more intuitive derivation of Bergeron’s (2021) benchmark model. Bergeron states that there are no assumptions regarding arbitrage and equilibrium, but this analysis shows that the same result obtained under no-arbitrage equilibrium conditions. Missing from Bergeron’s analysis is an extension to Black’s (1972) zero-beta CAPM so that result is presented here. The analysis concludes with a simple empirical example highlighting the importance of choosing a benchmark that is mean-variance efficient.

Costs and access barriers to ondansetron: A national analysis of Medicare part D and Medicare Advantage plans.

e23126 Background: Seniors living with cancer and receiving prescription drug benefits through Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs) can face cost and access barriers in the forms of prior authorization and quantity limit policies. While over half of Medicare beneficiaries are now insured with drug benefits through Medicare Advantage, it remains unclear how costs and access barriers compare between PDPs and MA drug plans (MADPs). This study compared plan-level costs and prevalence of prior authorization or quantity limit policies between PDPs and MADPs for oral ondansetron, an essential and widely used antiemetic for patients with cancer. Methods: We used 2023 Q3 MA and PDP data from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, excluding employer-sponsored and Supplemental Need Plans (including dual-eligible plans) and plans with &lt; 10 enrollees. We focused on the four most common generic ondansetron forms: 4mg and 8mg tablets, and 4mg and 8mg orally disintegrating tablets (ODT). To compare medication quantities, we calculated the median (IQR) cost of 30-day supply (90 dosage units), defining plan-level price as the average unit cost for each formulation. Price benchmarks were defined using Mark Cuban Cost-plus Drug Company cash prices, which reflect fixed markup to negotiated wholesale prices. T-test and Chi-square tests were used for comparison. Results: Across 813 PDPs and 3512 MADPs, MAPDs had lower median costs for a 30-day supply of ondansetron than PDP plans (4mg tab: $16.1 vs $29.2; 4mg ODT: $38.0 vs $56.4; 8mg tab: $24.7 vs $35.6; 8mg ODT: $37.2 vs $54.4, all p &lt; 0.01). Median costs for both PDPs and MAPDs were higher than benchmarks (66-155% across formulations; all p &lt; 0.01). PDPs and MAPDs had similarly high prior authorization rates (83.6% vs 83.4%, p = 0.89), but MAPDs used quantity limits more frequently (22.5% vs 16.5%, p &lt; 0.01). There was little variation in prior authorization and quantity limit policies across formulations. Conclusions: Ondansetron costs in both PDPs and MAPDs were higher than benchmarks. Compared to PDPs, MAPDs offered ondansetron at lower costs but used policies creating access barriers for patients either at similar (prior authorization) or higher (quantity limit) frequency, burdening patients, physicians, health systems, and pharmacies. [Table: see text]

Access barriers and cost of varenicline for smoking cessation: A national comparative analysis of Medicare standalone part D and Medicare Advantage plan.

11080 Background: Smoking cessation is a critical part of cancer prevention and control. Oral varenicline is the most cost-effective medication for smoking cessation, yet seniors enrolled in Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs) can potentially face costs and access barriers to varenicline in the forms of prior authorization and quantity limits. Although over half of Medicare beneficiaries are now insured and receiving drug benefits through Medicare Advantage, it remains unclear how costs and access barriers compare between PDPs and MA drug plans (MADPs). This study compared plan-level costs and prevalence of prior authorization and quantity limit policies between PDPs and MADPs for oral varenicline. Methods: We used 2023 Q3 MA and PDP data from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, excluding employer-sponsored and Supplemental Need Plans (including dual-eligible plans) and plans with &lt;10 enrollees. We focused on two generic varenicline forms: 0.5mg and 1mg tablets. To compare medication quantities, we calculated the plan-level median (IQR) cost for 30-day supply, based on the average unit cost. Price benchmarks were defined based on average wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) from Micromedex Red Book. T-test and Chi-squared tests were used to compare costs and prevalence of prior authorization and quantity limits. Results: Across 3512 MADPs and 813 PDPs, median costs for a 30-day supply of varenicline were similar (0.5mg tab: $375.32 vs. $376.87, p=0.64; 1mg: $371.88 vs. $376.87, p=0.49, respectively). Median costs for both PDPs and MAPDs were higher than benchmarks; p&lt;0.01 for all). For both varenicline dosages, MAPDs had higher rates of prior authorization (27.1% vs 16.2%, p&lt;0.01) and quantity limits (48.0% vs 30.4%, p&lt;0.01) than PDPs. Conclusions: Varenicline prices in both PDPs and MAPDs were much higher than benchmarks. Compared to PDPs, MAPDs used more prior authorization and quantity limit to control cost. This can create access barriers to this cost-effective medication, burdening patients, physicians, health systems, and pharmacies. [Table: see text]

5-year multicenter analysis of clinical trial participation and total cost of care for older adults with cancer.

11013 Background: Clinical trial access particularly for older adults aged 65 years and above with cancer is impacted by multilevel barriers, including cost concerns to payers in the usual models of cancer care delivery. Alternative models recently studied include the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation’s Oncology Care Model (OCM), a value-based care pilot to enhance quality &amp; reduce costs. Here, we investigated the association between clinical trial participation (CTP) and the total cost of care (TCOC) within this non-traditional model. Methods: We identified prospective longitudinal observational cohort of patients cared for in 11 states within 323 clinics in 14 multi-site community practices participating in OCM, in The US Oncology Network and extracted data (episode claims, medical records, episodes) from OCM performance periods (PP) 3-11 between 7/1/17 and 6/30/22. Propensity score matching by PP, age, gender, date of death, cancer type identified the analysis cohort of matched episodes, then stratified by trial participation (CTP vs usual care) to compare TCOC and drug expenditures. Results: Over 5 years, 121,717 unique patients (94% of whom were aged 65y+) received 282,604 episodes of cancer care in the community, most common cancers being breast, lung, multiple myeloma. Propensity score matching identified 13,260 matched episodes (6630 usual care, 6630 CTP). The actual expenditure differed by $2,341 per episode between CTP &amp; usual care (CTP $43,890 vs usual care $41,548; p &lt; 0.0001), while trial participation had significant savings against the OCM CTP benchmark ($4816 saved per CTP episode), compared to usual care vs its benchmark ($826 saved per usual care episode, p &lt; 0.0001). Drug costs per episode did not differ between the two groups (CTP $29,516 vs usual care $30,553; p 0.54). Further breakdown shows that drug spending on anticancer agents (CTP $28,008 vs usual care $29,139) and other drugs including supportive care meds (CTP $1,511 vs usual care $1,414) did not differ significantly. Conclusions: Clinical trial participation saw relative cost savings against the benchmark compared to usual care, owing largely to the higher benchmark prices for CTP episodes in OCM’s risk-adjusted price prediction model, rather than an absolute cost savings to payers. Drug expenditures remain the largest contributor to total cost of care in this alternative model. The contributors to both drug expenditures as well as the absence of absolute cost savings between the two cohorts represent key areas for further investigation. CMMI Disclaimer: The statements contained in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of CMS. The authors assume responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this document.

Interval prediction of crude oil spot price volatility: An improved hybrid model integrating decomposition strategy, IESN and ARIMA

Crude oil price volatility prediction are important for energy policymaking and investment risk avoidance, and have attracted a great deal of global attention. In recent years, although some studies have proposed methods for prediction crude oil price volatility, most of them are point prediction, which are difficult to provide richer reference information for managers. Therefore, an improved hybrid interval prediction model is proposed. The hybrid model combines data feature extraction and quantification techniques, fuzzy information granulation(FIG), improved echo state network (IESN), and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). The hybrid model is able to accurately portray the different features present in the volatility of crude oil spot price. The features are quantified in order to merge similar feature components and improve the prediction effect. On this basis, IESN, which possesses strong nonlinear learning ability, is used to predict high-frequency sequences, and ARIMA, which has strong linear carving ability, is used to predict low-frequency sequences and residual terms. By “divide and conquer”, excellent prediction intervals are obtained. West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot and Brent crude oil spot are selected for analysis, and consider the influence of futures on interval construction. The effect of volatility intervals is validated from the pricing benchmark and time scale dimensions, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed model has optimal performance in all scenarios. Take the performance of WTI on the daily scale as an example, its PICWC value is 0.8205. Compared with other benchmark models, it improves by 137.4504, 3.1118, 1.0506, and 0.4875, respectively. The proposed model provides a reliable new idea for crude oil spot volatility interval prediction.

Benchmark Prices and Iraqi Oil Prices: The Asymmetric Effects of Benchmark Prices on Three Iraqi Oil Blends

This paper examines the asymmetric effects of benchmark oil prices on the prices of the three major Iraqi oil blends (Basrah Light, Basrah Heavy and Kirkuk) using Kilian and Vigfusson's (2011) non-linear VAR specification. The empirical evidence reveals that a decrease in benchmark prices decreases Basrah Light and Kirkuk oil blends more than an increase in the benchmark increases the prices of these two Iraqi blends for the October 2002-October 2019 period. However, the asymmetric behavior of Basrah Heavy is the reverse for the April 2015-October 2019 period. Moreover, as the magnitude of the benchmark oil price shocks increases, the degree of asymmetry increases. This shows that Iraq cannot benefit from oil price increases and market developments for its two most important export blends: Basrah Light and Kirkuk.

Construction Solutions, Cost and Thermal Behavior of Efficiently Designed Above-Ground Wine-Aging Facilities

The wine industry requires a considerable amount of energy, with an important fraction corresponding to the cooling and ventilation of above-ground aging warehouses. The large investments made in aging facilities can compromise the viability and competitiveness of wineries if their design is not optimized. The objective of this study was to provide guidance for the efficient design of new above-ground warehouses. To this end, multiple construction solutions (structure, envelopes, levels of integration, etc.) were characterized, and their costs and the resulting interior environments were analyzed. The results offer a comprehensive view of potential construction solutions and benchmark price ranges for viable and profitable designs. With a total cost of 300 EUR/m2, an average damping of 98% per day can be achieved. Increasing the costs does not imply better effectiveness. A double enclosure with internal insulation—with or without an air chamber—can achieve excellent results. Greater integration as a result of several enclosures being in contact with other rooms and/or the terrain allows for a high effectiveness to be achieved without air conditioning. Perimeter glazing and ventilation holes can reduce the effectiveness of the construction, resulting in greater instability and a lower damping capacity.

Evaluating Oil Price Forecasts: A Meta-analysis

Oil price forecasts have traditionally attracted the interest of both the empirical literature and policy makers, although research efforts have been intensified in the last 15 years. The present study investigates the forecasting characteristics that have the greatest impact on the accuracy level of such forecasts. To achieve this, we employ a meta-analysis approach of more than 6,000 observations of relative root mean squared errors (RRMSEs) which are pooled within a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The findings indicate that forecasting frameworks such as MIDAS and combined forecasts tend to report significantly lower forecast errors. In addition, the choice of the oil price benchmark is an important factor, with the Brent price to offer lower forecast errors. Furthermore, the short-run horizons tend to produce more accurate forecasts and the same holds for the real, instead of the nominal oil prices. A number of robustness tests confirms the validity of these results. Overall, the findings of this study serve as a guide for future oil price forecasting exercises.

EV Hosting Capacity Enhancement in a Community Microgrid Through Dynamic Price Optimization-Based Demand Response.

Community microgrids, as an emerging technology, offer resiliency in operation for smart grids. Microgrids are seeing an increased penetration of eco-friendly electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the uncontrolled charging of EVs can easily overwhelm such electric networks. In this work, we propose an efficient demand response (DR) scheme based on dynamic pricing to enhance the capacity of the microgrid to securely host a large number of EVs. A hierarchical two-level optimization framework is introduced to realize the DR scheme. At the upper level, the dynamic prices for the participating users in DR are optimized while at the lower level, each user optimizes its energy consumption based on the price signal from the upper level. An evolutionary algorithm and a mixed-integer linear programming model is employed to solve the upper and lower level problems, respectively. Energy scheduling problems of the users are solved in a distributed manner which adds to the scalability of the approach. The proposed DR scheme is tested on a microgrid system adopted from the IEEE European low-voltage distribution network. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of the proposed DR scheme compared to the benchmark pricing policies from the literature.

HPR205 Predicting Drug Price Erosion in Germany Associated With Indication Expansion, to Understand the Potential Launch Price Benchmark for a New Product

HPR205 Predicting Drug Price Erosion in Germany Associated With Indication Expansion, to Understand the Potential Launch Price Benchmark for a New Product

The European Hydrogen Bank as an Element of Support for the EU Hydrogen Strategy

Abstract The European Hydrogen Bank is a new platform intended to connect users with producers and stimulate the private sector’s interest in new, environmentally friendly, hydrogen technologies. One of the purposes of this new institution is to reduce the cost difference between hydrogen produced in accordance with the guidelines of the delegated acts of the REDII (renewable hydrogen) and hydrogen produced from fossil fuels, and to increase the predictability of producer incomes. The institution is also designed to play a coordinating role, for instance, by collecting information on demand and supply, providing transparent information on prices and developing hydrogen market price benchmarks. The bank is expected to become operational by the end of 2023. Particular emphasis is put on the financing of projects that contribute to the objectives of the European Green Deal, such as decarbonisation of industrial sectors that are difficult to electrify. The EHB is a key tool for driving the development and deployment of hydrogen technologies from renewable sources across the European Union. By providing financial support for hydrogen projects and supporting cooperation between EU Member States, the EHB can streamline the transition to a green hydrogen economy and contribute to Europe’s climate and energy objectives.

Cost-Effectiveness Modeling of Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography with Piflufolastat F18 for the Initial Diagnosis of Patients with Prostate Cancer in the United States.

Piflufolastat F18 is a novel prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-targeted positron emission tomography (PET) radiotracer that is superior to standard of care (SOC) imaging for the initial staging of prostate cancer and the detection of biochemical recurrence. As piflufolastat F18 has been approved in the United States (US) for this indication, this modeling study assessed the cost effectiveness of piflufolastat F18 versus fluciclovine F-18, gallium68-PSMA-11 (PSMA11), and SOC imaging (a mix of bone scans, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging) for the diagnosis and staging of prostate cancer from a US healthcare system perspective. A US third-party payer perspective was used, which for this population reflects a mix of commercial and Medicare, considering only direct healthcare costs. This study utilized a tertiary healthcare setting. A decision tree was used to map the diagnostic/treatment pathway, consisting of the proportion of patients with local, regional, distant, or no disease; prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤1.0 or >1.0; and accuracy of imaging modalities. A Markov model predicted the long-term outcomes of disease progression according to treatment decisions. Inputs to the model were informed by data from the OSPREY and CONDOR clinical trials, public data, and the literature. Treatment mix included active surveillance, radiation therapy, prostatectomy, androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), and radiation therapy + ADT, informed by expert opinion. Outcomes included life-years (LY), quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). All costs were reported in 2021 US dollars, using the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index. A willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000 was considered cost effective, consistent with the upper range used as the standard for price benchmarks by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. The robustness of the base-case results was assessed in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Over a lifetime horizon, piflufolastat F18 had the greatest effectiveness in terms of LYs (6.80) and QALYs (5.33); for the comparators, LYs ranged from 6.58 (SOC) to 6.76 (PSMA11) and QALYs ranged from 5.12 (SOC) and 5.30 (PSMA11). Piflufolastat F18 was more cost effective compared with fluciclovine F18, PSMA11, and SOC, with ICERs of $21,122, $55,836, and $124,330 per QALY gained, respectively. Piflufolastat F18 was associated with the greatest net monetary benefit ($627,918) compared with the other options at a WTP threshold of $150,000. The results of the deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of the base-case results. This study suggests that piflufolastat F18 is a cost-effective diagnostic option for men with prostate cancer in the US, with higher associated LY, QALY, and greater net monetary benefit than fluciclovine F18, PSMA11, and SOC imaging.