Benchmark Economy Research Articles

Capital risk, fiscal policy, and the distribution of wealth

We develop a dynamic model economy where self-employed entrepreneurs allocate their net worth to their firm capital and risk-less government bonds, facing borrowing constraints, uninsurable labour endowment and capital depreciation risk. We derive a numerical approximation of the model’s equilibrium and compare it with a benchmark economy with no capital risk. Unlike labour endowment risk, capital risk reduces aggregate capital accumulation and wages and generates a positive risk premium. Low- (high-) net-worth entrepreneurs, whose consumption depends primarily on labour (financial) income, hold higher (lower) capital risk exposure. These patterns exacerbate inequality by increasing the share of financially constrained individuals and fattening the tails of the net worth distribution. Fiscal policy affects these outcomes by redistributing resources and affecting the risk premium. Capital tax cuts benefit more low- or high-net-worth entrepreneurs, depending on whether taxes on bonds or labour income finance them.

Macro welfare effects of flexible labor contracts

We develop a Dynamic-Stochastic-General-Equilibrium model to study the macro welfare effects of flexible labor contracts. Capturing the empirical properties observed in the data, we incorporate two labor sectors in our DSGE framework: a fixed sector and a flexible sector. The fixed sector offers contracts that exhibit rigidities in working-hours and wages while the flexible sector offers flexible contracts in both dimensions. We calibrate the model utilizing Eurozone data and show that in the benchmark currency union economy, welfare would monotonically increase if fixed sector’s wage rigidity goes up, while welfare would monotonically decline in wage rigidity if the benchmark economy were to switch to inflation targeting. We also show that it is the working-hour flexibility of flexible labor contracts that reinforces the desirability of wage stickiness in the fixed sector. Finally, we obtain strikingly different optimal flexible sector sizes for economies in currency union and inflation targeting monetary policy regimes: while the optimal flexible sector size for a currency union economy turns out to be 0%, the optimal flexible sector size for an economy with inflation targeting is 100%. These important results prevail because large fluctuations in consumption associated with flexible labor arrangements are too costly for households in a currency union with limited monetary policy flexibility — outweighing the production flexibility gains from flexible labor contracts. In this respect, our paper formalizes the welfare concerns related to the growing flexible labor sector sizes in Eurozone and urge policy makers to pay special attention to regulations that induce more flexible labor arrangements in this region.

Business ownership and the secondary market

I combine survey and transaction data to empirically characterize secondary markets for wholly owned businesses in the United States. While markets are active, with an estimated 2.9% of businesses sold annually, they are also frictional, with the median sale taking between 170 and 200 days. To quantify the impact of market frictions on business formation, ownership, continuation, and entrepreneurial welfare, I estimate a search and matching model of business ownership and resale using novel data from an online market. In the estimated model, removing secondary markets reduces output by almost 21%, while firm entry rates rise by 2.5 percentage points, highlighting a trade-off between firm entry and continuation that is absent in models without resale. I then characterize the planner's problem and show that buying and selling decisions will generally never be simultaneously efficient. A transaction tax used to finance a minimum income scheme for entrepreneurs raises welfare by 0.94%. Finally, I extend the model to include founding risk and find the risky economy is five times more responsive to frictions relative to the benchmark economy.

Policy distortions and aggregate productivity with endogenous establishment-level productivity

What accounts for income per capita and total factor productivity (TFP) differences across countries? We study resource misallocation across heterogeneous production units in a general equilibrium model where establishment productivity and size are affected by policy distortions. We solve the model in closed form and show that policy distortions have a substantial negative effect on establishment productivity growth, average establishment size, and aggregate productivity. Calibrating a distorted benchmark economy to U.S. data, we find that empirically reasonable variations in distortions generate reductions in aggregate TFP of more than 24 percent while slightly increasing concentration in the establishment size distribution. If distortions in addition lower the exit rate of incumbent establishments, as supported by some empirical evidence, the aggregate TFP loss doubles to 48 percent.

Aggregate Costs of a Gender Gap in the Access to Business Resources

Abstract We quantify the aggregate costs of a discriminatory restriction against women in the access to business resources. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model with an endogenous size distribution of production units, which are run by either female or male entrepreneurs. In this setting, we introduce a distortion that limits the amount of capital that women can use to run their businesses. We calibrate the model to match data from benchmark economies that exhibit relatively egalitarian labor market results between women and men, except in entrepreneurship. Our counterfactual analyses show that a gender-specific capital constraint causes an output loss between 14% and 28% and a fall in aggregate productivity between 12% and 20%. Furthermore, we show that most of the output loss is accounted for by a fall in total factor productivity. Lastly, we show that the aggregate cost of the distortion is mainly triggered by preventing the most skilled women from running bigger businesses, and not the exit of women from entrepreneurship.

Misallocation and Inequality

For a large set of countries with different GDP per capita levels, we document how the distribution of labour earnings varies by development. Data reveals that the distribution of earnings changes with development in a particular way: while there is a larger mass at the left-tail, the right-tails shrinks, and moves towards the center. As a result, while the standard deviation of log earnings increases with development, the mean-to-median ratio declines. We interpret this fact within a model economy with heterogeneous workers and firms, which features industry dynamics, labor market frictions captured by a matching function, skill accumulation of workers with learning-by-doing and on-the-job training, and earnings inequality both across firms and workers. The benchmark economy is calibrated to the UK. We study how the earnings distribution changes as we increase two distortions in the benchmark economy: wedges on firms' output correlated with firm productivity and reductions in the labor market's ability to match unemployed workers and open vacancies. These distortions lead to the misallocation of resources and reduce employment and the GDP per capita. But they also affect how much firms are willing to pay to workers, how well higher skilled workers are matched with firms with higher productivity, and how much training workers receive. The model is consistent with a host of factors on how firm size distribution, firms' training decisions, and workers' life-cycle earnings profiles change with development and generates the observed patterns of changes in earnings distribution with development.

Institutional Effects on Innovation and the Requirements for Structural Reforms

The effect of institutions on innovation outcomes, and therefore on economic growth, is a well-defined relationship in the literature. However, through the empirical analysis of the present paper, this relationship seems to differ between different groups of countries. The above issues are examined using annual data for 152 countries for the period from 2007 to 2017. The empirical investigation of the above relations highlights the fact that there is a positive and statistically significant effect of institutions on innovative performance for the total period under analysis. The countries under investigation are divided into three groups based on their difference in the institutional background score in relation to the average of 20 benchmark economies. The analysis shows that there is an “S-shaped” relationship between innovation and institutions. The higher the distance of a group from the reference economies—in terms of their institutional performance—the higher the impact of the institutional background on innovation since there is more capacity and greater potential for improvement of the institutional background. The analysis highlights the need for structural reforms to accelerate institutional changes at an unprecedented pace in order to transform institutions that hinder innovation into institutions that promote innovation within a reasonable time frame. Finally, the analysis results in the creation of heat maps (one for each country group) which presents—for each economy—which institutions are deemed necessary to be structurally reformed, culminating in policy proposals.

Reforming the Individual Income Tax in Spain

Can the Spanish government generate more tax revenue by making personal income taxes more progressive? To answer this question, we build a life-cycle economy with uninsurable labor productivity risk and endogenous labor supply. Individuals face progressive taxes on labor and capital incomes and proportional taxes that capture social security, corporate income, and consumption taxes. Our answer is yes, but not much. A reform that increases labor income taxes for individuals who earn more than the mean labor income and reduces taxes for those who earn less than the mean labor income generates a small additional revenue. The revenue from labor income taxes is maximized at an effective marginal tax rate of 51.6% (38.9%) for the richest 1% (5%) of individuals, versus 46.3% (34.7%) in the benchmark economy. The increase in revenue from labor income taxes is only 0.82%, while the total tax revenue declines by 1.55%. The higher progressivity is associated with lower aggregate labor supply and capital. As a result, the government collects higher taxes from a smaller economy. The total tax revenue is higher if marginal taxes are raised only for the top earners.The increase, however, must be substantial and cover a large segment of top earners. The rise in tax collection from a 3 percentage points increase on the top 1% is just 0.09%. A 10 percentage points increase on the top 10% of earners (those who earn more than €41,699) raises total tax revenue by 2.81%.

Reforming the individual income tax in Spain

Can the Spanish government generate more tax revenue by making personal income taxes more progressive? To answer this question, we build a life-cycle economy with uninsurable labor productivity risk and endogenous labor supply. Individuals face progressive taxes on labor and capital incomes and proportional taxes that capture social security, corporate income, and consumption taxes. Our answer is yes, but not much. A reform that increases labor income taxes for individuals who earn more than the mean labor income and reduces taxes for those who earn less than the mean labor income generates a small additional revenue. The revenue from labor income taxes is maximized at an effective marginal tax rate of 51.6% (38.9%) for the richest 1% (5%) of individuals, versus 46.3% (34.7%) in the benchmark economy. The increase in revenue from labor income taxes is only 0.82%, while the total tax revenue declines by 1.55%. The higher progressivity is associated with lower aggregate labor supply and capital. As a result, the government collects higher taxes from a smaller economy. The total tax revenue is higher if marginal taxes are raised only for the top earners. The increase, however, must be substantial and cover a large segment of top earners. The rise in tax collection from a 3 percentage points increase on the top 1% is just 0.09%. A 10 percentage points increase on the top 10% of earners (those who earn more than €41,699) raises total tax revenue by 2.81%.

Aggregate fluctuations and the industry structure of the US economy

Abstract In a two-sector economy, changes in intermediate input trade as reflected in cost share fluctuations are key to determining the amplification properties of investment-specific and neutral shocks. I document that the cost shares of intermediate inputs produced by the investment sector correlate positively with GDP, whereas those of inputs produced by the consumption sector correlate negatively with GDP. The two-sector model of Greenwood et al. (1988) is extended to allow for trade of intermediate goods and to show that the documented correlations discipline heterogeneous elasticities of substitution in intermediate inputs across sectors. Shock amplification — that is, the effect of a sectorial shock on aggregate value added — depends on the degree of heterogeneity in these elasticities of substitution. For a calibrated economy to that of the United States, I find that shock amplification is stronger than in a unitary elasticity economy. It is also stronger than in an economy with a common non-unitary elasticity that is either inferred from data via reduced-form estimates, or calibrated to match the same targets as our benchmark economy.

Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China

Abstract This paper explores the effects of a government tax policy in a growth model with economic transition and toxic housing bubbles applied to China. Such a policy combines taxing entrepreneurs with a one-time redistribution to workers in the same period. Under the tax policy, we find that the welfare improvement for workers is non-monotonic. In particular, there exists an optimal tax at which social welfare is maximized. Moreover, we consider the welfare effects of setting the tax at its optimum. We show that the tax policy can be welfare-enhancing, comparing to the case without active policies. The optimal tax may also yield a higher level of welfare than the case even without housing bubbles. In addition, our simple numerical exercise shows that the optimal tax rate is about 23%;, and social welfare is significantly improved with such a tax policy. Finally, we extend the benchmark economy to a multi-period setting and calibrate the model to China. Our results show that a 20%; tax rate can speed up economic transition and increase output growth. Between 1998 and 2012, aggregate consumption is 4.86%; higher under active tax policies.

Managerial Delegation, Law Enforcement, and Aggregate Productivity

AbstractI propose a novel general equilibrium framework to quantify the impact of law enforcement on the internal organization of firms and thereby on aggregate outcomes. The model features an agency problem between the firm and its middle managers. Imperfect law enforcement allows middle managers to divert revenue from firms, which reduces delegation and constrains firm size. I use French matched employer–employee data for evidence of the model’s pattern of managerial wages. Relative to the French benchmark economy, reducing law enforcement to its minimum value decreases GDP (equivalently, total factor productivity; TFP) by 23% and triples the self-employment rate. Consistent with the model, I document cross-country empirical evidence of a positive correlation between law enforcement indicators and the aggregate share of managerial workers. Mapped across the world, the model explains 3–6% of the ratio in GDP per worker between the poorest and richest quintile of countries, and 6–11% of their TFP ratio.

Financial Covenants, Firm Financing, and Investment

Firms reduce investment to avoid costly violations of financial covenants, most of which are based on earnings. Empirically, I show that a 25% drop in earnings implies a 15% decrease in investment for the median listed US firm due to the reduced distance to the covenant threshold. To quantify this precautionary effect of covenants in the aggregate, I incorporate earnings covenants into a heterogeneous firm model with a financial sector. Firms in the model are uncertain about the bank’s reaction to a covenant breach and therefore reduce debt issuance and investment when approaching the covenant threshold. In the model, covenants reduce aggregate investment by 14% relative to a benchmark economy without limits on borrowing, where the precautionary effect of covenants accounts for most of the decrease.

Output Distortions and the Choice of Legal Form of Organization

We study the distortions to aggregate output created by the differential tax treatment of corporations and pass through entities. We develop an industry equilibrium model in which the legal form of organization is an endogenous choice for firms facing trade off between tax treatment of business income, access to external capital, and the evolution of productivity over time. We match this model to features of the US economy. We find that, relative to the benchmark economy, revenue-neutral tax reform in which legal forms receive the same tax treatments leads to 1.25% increase in the aggregate output.

Output Distortions and the Choice of Legal Form of Organization

We study the distortions to aggregate output created by the differential tax treatment of corporations and pass through entities. We develop an industry equilibrium model in which the legal form of organization is an endogenous choice for firms facing trade off between tax treatment of business income, access to external capital, and the evolution of productivity over time. We match this model to features of the US economy. We find that, relative to the benchmark economy, revenue-neutral tax reform in which legal forms receive the same tax treatments leads to 1.25% increase in the aggregate output.

Innovation-led growth in a time of debt

We study the effects of large reductions in government budget deficits (labeled “fiscal consolidations”) on firms’ entry, innovative investments, productivity and per capita output growth in a model of endogenous technological change. Due to the absence of lump-sum taxes, temporary budget deficits set government debt-output ratios on unsustainable paths. An equilibrium then requires the specification of a date at which the debt-output ratio is stabilized at a constant finite value. We discipline parameters using post-war observations for the U.S. economy. We find that fiscal consolidations produce persistent growth slowdowns, permanently lowering the path of per capita output relative to a benchmark economy in which the fiscal consolidation is achieved with lump-sum taxes. These output losses are sizable. In this sense, government debt is a burden on the economy. Tax-based consolidations produce output losses that are twice as large as those from spending-based consolidations.

Distributional effects of social security reforms: The case of France

AbstractThis paper assesses the impact of two social security reforms using a calibrated, dynamic life cycle model. It quantifies the long‐run distributional impact of two sets of reforms in France: (1) the 2013 reform of Prime Minister Ayrault, which modified the parameters of a defined benefit (DB) plan, and (2) a hypothetical reform that changes the system to a notional defined contribution (NDC) plan, similar to that in Italy. First, on aggregate welfare, the Ayrault reform and the hypothetical switch to NDC yield contrasting results. The Ayrault reform improves aggregate welfare, which is not the case for the NDC reform. Welfare comparisons are made with respect to the “benchmark economy,” where increases in life expectancy occur and are dealt with only through a higher contribution rate. Second, both reforms yield unequal distributions of welfare changes, with low‐skill workers on the losing end. Under the Ayrault reform, low‐skill workers delay retirement by two years, to age 62. Under NDC reform, pensions for low‐skill workers fall substantially as inequalities during the work life translate directly into inequalities in pensions. The switch to an NDC scheme leads to a more unequal society in terms of asset and welfare distribution.

LONG-RUN TAX INCIDENCE IN A HUMAN-CAPITAL-BASED ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH LABOR-MARKET FRICTIONS

In a second-best optimal growth setup with only factor taxes, it is in general optimal to fully replace capital by labor income taxation in the long run. We revisit this important issue by developing a human-capital-based endogenous growth model with frictional labor search, allowing each firm to create multiple vacancies and each worker to determine market participation. We find that the conventional efficient bargaining condition is necessary but not sufficient for achieving constrained social optimality. We then conduct tax incidence exercises in balanced growth by calibrating to the U.S. economy with a preexisting 20% flat tax on capital and labor income. Our quantitative results suggest that, due to a dominant channel via the interactions between vacancy creation and market participation, it is optimal to switch only partially from capital to labor taxation in a benchmark economy where human-capital formation depends on both physical and human-capital stocks. This main finding is robust even along the transition with time-varying factor tax rates. Moreover, our quantitative analysis under alternative setups suggests that while endogenous human capital and labor-market frictions are essential for obtaining a positive optimal capital tax, endogenous leisure, nonlinear human-capital accumulation and endogenous growth are not crucial.

A dynamic model of an insurer: loss shocks, capacity constraints and underwriting cycles

PurposeThis paper aims to revisit the assumption of the cyclicality of the property-liability insurance market and identify a scenario in which the so-called underwriting cycles are unpredictable, according to a dynamic cash flow model which generates non-cyclical output dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThis paper is on the intersection of real business cycle models and financial cycles. The authors construct a dynamic model of an insurer’s cash flows with stochastic loss shocks and capacity constraints, in which loss shocks have a dual impact on both underwriting profits and access to external capital. They simulate the insurer’s optimal output responses to loss shocks, including output movements in underwriting coverage and external capital, to explore the source of unpredictable underwriting cycles through linear quadratic approximation in the model economy.FindingsThe authors find that the effect of loss shocks on the insurer’s cash flows could spread out and amplify over time because of the dynamic interaction between its underwriting capability and ability to raise external capital. This dynamic interaction can generate a non-cyclical pattern of changes in underwriting coverage and access to external capital in the benchmark economy. Applied to different experimental economies, the simulation results reveal that the determinants of the level of output fluctuations include the size of loss shocks, the sensitivity of capital market to loss shocks and the tightness of capital market.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, there has been no attempt to study insurance output cyclicality with a dynamic cash flow model based upon the real business cycle literature, in which the dynamic interaction between underwriting and access to external capital because of loss shocks has an amplifying effect on output markets. This paper contributes to the current body of research by being able to simulate and show the insurance output dynamics resulting from the amplifying effect under capacity constraints.

Education outcomes and the labor market

The quality of education appears to be negatively correlated with both the overeducation of workers at the tasks they perform and the unemployment rate across EU-15 countries, and positively correlated with the wage premium associated to tertiary education. We develop a model of the labor market with frictions to quantitatively investigate the impact of the education outcomes on the labor market. We show that both the ability of educated andnon educated workers have sizable effects on the incentives of firms regarding the type of vacancies they open and also regarding the incentives of educated workers as of where to search for a job. Therefore education outcomes are relevant to understand the overeducation phenomena observed in the labor market. According to our quantitative analysis had the quality of education observed in Spain been similar to the European average then the overeducation rate would have been between 5 and 10 percentage points lower and the unemployment rate of the two types of workers would be reduced by 40%, but the tertiary education wage premium would be slightly smaller than in the benchmark economy.