Beliefs In Decisions Research Articles

Variance, skewness and multiple outcomes in described and experienced prospects: Can one descriptive model capture it all?

We determined the scope of five decision models of choices across four environmental niches defined by whether outcome probabilities are described (risk) or experienced by sampling (uncertainty) and whether lotteries are simple (one or two outcomes per prospect) or complex (three or four). The majority of participants chose in accordance with cumulative prospect theory only in simple environments involving decisions from description (75%). In complex environments involving decisions from description and experience, however, skewness-preference models were more prevalent (57% and 68%, respectively). Consequently, in niches outside of simple lotteries under risk, rank dependence and nonlinear probability weighting failed to accurately describe the majority of choices. Exploiting elicited subjective beliefs in decisions from experience, we found that experienced (sampled) outcome likelihoods outperformed elicited beliefs in predicting choices and found scant evidence for two-stage models of decisions under uncertainty. Finally, we found statistically significant evidence that 90% of participants chose as if they relied on different models across environments; nonetheless, assuming as if participants used a single model across all environments to predict out-of-sample choice only minimally reduced prediction accuracy. We discuss the implications of model mimicry and task diagnosticity in light of these results in terms of both economic and statistical significance, both for model comparisons and inference. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Design of Improved BP Decoders and Corresponding LT Code Degree Distribution for AWGN Channels

This paper presents the performance of a hard decision belief propagation (HDBP) decoder used for Luby transform (LT) codes over additive white Gaussian noise channels; subsequently, three improved HDBP decoders are proposed. We first analyze the performance improvement of the sorted ripple and delayed decoding process in a HDBP decoder; subsequently, we propose ripple-sorted belief propagation (RSBP) as well as ripple-sorted and delayed belief propagation (RSDBP) decoders to improve the bit error rate (BER). Based on the analysis of the distribution of error encoded symbols, we propose a ripple-sorted and threshold-based belief propagation (RSTBP) decoder, which deletes low-reliability encoded symbols, to further improve the BER. Degree distribution significantly affects the performance of LT codes. Therefore, we propose a method for designing optimal degree distributions for the proposed decoders. Through simulation results, we demonstrate that the proposed RSBP and RSDBP decoders provide significantly better BER performances than the HDBP decoder. RSDBP and RSTDP combined with the proposed degree distributions outperformed state-of-the-art degree distributions in terms of the number of encoded symbols required to recover an input symbol correctly (NERRIC) and the frame error rate (FER). For a hybrid decoder formulated by combining RSDBP with a soft decision belief propagation decoder, the proposed degree distribution outperforms the other degree distributions in terms of decoding complexity.

Parental Beliefs and Decision Making About Child and Adolescent Immunization

Over the past 150 years, innovations in immunization practices have dramatically improved the health of children, and parents are increasingly asked to consider and accept new childhood vaccines. We present a conceptual model to frame a review of research on the role of parental attitudes and beliefs in decision making about child and adolescent immunization and describe the historical context of vaccine-related decision-making research. This review focuses on theory-based Social-environmental and parent-specific personal factors as potential influences on vaccine decision making. Relevant Social-environmental issues discussed include media coverage of vaccines, perceived social norms, and the persuasive influence of peer groups. Health care provider recommendations are presented as an exemplar of factors related to the family's interface with the health care system. Personal factors addressed include parental health beliefs, attitudes, and knowledge related to vaccine preventable diseases and immunization, as well as cognitive heuristics that are employed in the decision-making process (e.g., omission bias, protected values, framing of information). Last, promising directions for research and suggestions for clinical practice are presented.

A Comparison of Three Emerging Theories of the Policy Process

In an earlier review of political theories of the policy process, Sabatier (1991) challenged political scientists and policy scholars to improve theoretical understanding of policy processes. This essay responds by comparing and building upon three emerging theoretical frameworks: Sabatier's advocacy coalitions framework (ACF), institutional rational choice (IRC), and Moe's political theory of bureaucracy, which he calls the politics of structural choice (SC). The frameworks are compared using six criteria: (1) the bound aries of inquiry; (2) the model of the individual; (3) the roles of informa tion and beliefs in decision making and strategy; (4) the nature and role of groups; (5) the concept of levels of action; and (6) the ability to explain action at various stages of the policy process. Comparison reveals that each framework has promising components, but each remains short of provid ing a full explanation of the processes of policy formation and change. Directions for future theory development and empirical examination are discussed.

The effect of experience on the decision making of expert and novice buyers

Expert consumers can base their decisions on a knowledge of product benefits. Novices, with little knowledge of product features, are likely to base their judgement more on what other people think that they should do (i.e. their normative beliefs). It is hypothesized that this is generally found: that experts rely more on perceived benefits and less on normative influence when compared with novices. The relative contribution of expected benefits and normative beliefs in decisions can be measured within Ajzen's (1985) theory of planned behaviour. Evidence is reviewed which shows that the intentions of experts are based more on product benefits compared with novices but two new studies of investor intentions provided conflicting evidence in support of the hypothesis.