Belief Bias Research Articles

Effects of Type II Diabetes on upper extremity muscle characteristics in older adults.

With one in every four older adults living with T2D and one in every two older adults meeting the criteria for prediabetes, neuromuscular changes due to T2D are likely to impact functional activities in this population. Limited work in evaluating motor unit number and size across muscles in the upper extremity in persons with Type II Diabetes (T2D) exists, mostly due to the traditional belief bias that the upper extremity is relatively spared in T2D as compared to the lower extremities. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate motor unit number and size (using electrophysiological motor unit number index (MUNIX) and motor unit size index (MUSIX)) across the upper extremity in older adults with T2D (n = 13) as compared to healthy age- and sex-matched controls (n = 12). Persons with T2D presented with more motor units and larger motor unit sizes (p < 0.05) as compared to age- and sex-matched control participants. These changes were not dependent upon muscle location within a limb, indicating systemic neuromuscular changes associated with T2D. These group effects were clarified when health state covariates (e.g., blood pressure) were accounted for. Findings are consistent with emerging data that show altered neuromuscular characteristics with health state considerations in persons with T2D.

Four Self-Replications to Assess the Robustness of Recent Lab Findings: Replications of Studies From Cheek and Ward (2019), Cheek, Schwartz, and Shafir (2023), Cheek and Murray (2023), and Cheek (2023)

This paper reports four preregistered replications (total N = 2,008) of previously published studies from our lab. The first study replicates Cheek and Ward (2019) Study 3, which found that people want more options when adopting a maximizing goal of making the best possible choice compared to a satisficing goal of making a “good enough” choice. The second study replicates Cheek, Schwartz, and Shafir (2023) Study 2, which found that larger choice sets make choices feel more self-expressive even when they do not afford better preference matching. The third study replicates Cheek and Murray (2023) Supplemental Study 5, which found that people’s intuitions about adaptation to psychophysical experiences are associated with their intuitions about adaptation to life hardship. The final study replicates Cheek (2023) Study 4, which found that an informational intervention can reduce the biased belief that individuals in poverty are less vulnerable to harm than higher-income individuals. We successfully replicated all of the original effects, increasing confidence in the earlier findings.

Reframing death: life-affirming messages from the dead through the lens of Spiritualism and tarot

ABSTRACT Death in Western modernity is predominantly experienced as challenging and destabilising, bringing uncertainty, loss, and pain. However, from some contemporary spiritual perspectives, death represents not just an ending, but also facilitates new ways of experiencing our embodied being. Based on participatory fieldwork in the UK, this paper explores constructions and encounters with death through the formal religious lens of Spiritualism and the more informal and personalised practices of tarot. Reflecting practitioners’ belief in the agency of spirit in earthly lived experience I resist simple dichotomies of life and death by taking seriously a place for spirit. Using three empirical examples I explore how such a lens allows alternative geographies and therapeutic relationships to emerge, framing experiences of death as both endings and new beginnings, opening up new possibilities in the space left behind. Drawing on this potential, the paper encourages creative exploration of alternative narratives around death, spirit, and place.

The role of cognitive biases in shaping irrational beliefs: a multi-Study Investigation

Irrational beliefs encompass a broad set of beliefs that lack verifiable empirical evidence and contradict scientific principles, often grouped into conspiratorial, pseudoscientific, and paranormal domains. This paper investigated whether these beliefs are rooted in a set of cognitive biases. Across four studies, low socioeconomic status, right-wing political orientation, and religiousness accounted for a substantial portion of irrational beliefs variance. However, cognitive biases consistently contributed incrementally to their prediction, with naturalness bias, omission bias, commitment bias, and the overconfidence effect emerging as the most robust predictors. Our findings indicate the nuanced nature of these relationships, as the predictive power of cognitive biases was consistently higher for conspiracist and pseudoscientific beliefs in comparison to paranormal ones.

Measuring the U.S. monetary noise shocks

AbstractAgents' beliefs regarding future monetary policy changes influence their current decisions. However, these expectations may not always materialize in the future. This study shows that the monetary fundamental shocks (exogenous changes consistent with expectations) stabilize output and inflation, while the noise shocks (biased beliefs that fail to be realized in the future) increase economic fluctuations. Moreover, factors that amplify financial frictions—the spread between the capital return of entrepreneurs and the risk‐free interest rate of a central bank—can increase anticipation effects associated with these two types of monetary policy shocks.

Understanding friendship

AbstractThis article takes issue with two prominent views in the current debate around epistemic partiality in friendship. Strong views of epistemic partiality hold that friendship may require biased beliefs in direct conflict with epistemic norms. Weak views hold that friendship may place normative expectations on belief formation but in a manner that does not violate these norms. It is argued that neither view succeeds in explaining the relationship between epistemic norms and friendship norms. Weak views inadvertently endorse a form of motivated reasoning, failing to resolve the normative clash they seek to avoid. Strong views turn out to be incoherent once we consider the question of whether the requirement to form an epistemically partial belief is independent of whether the belief in question would be true. It is then argued that an epistemology of friendship should recognise the special role that understanding plays in friendship. On this view, friendship normatively requires understanding the truth about our friends. This entails that epistemic partiality, far from being a requirement, is in fact at odds with good friendship.

Putting People First: A Multimodal Bi‐Stream Structure‐based Model for Bias Mitigation

ABSTRACTResearch into multimodal model biases has largely concentrated on gender and racial issues, neglecting key areas such as biases related to religion, nationality, sexual orientation, and disabilities, as well as the subtleties of question intent and common biases. To address these gaps, we developed the Multimodal Bi‐Stream Structure‐based Model (MBSS) for Bias Mitigation, an innovative approach that focuses on these underrepresented groups by focusing on religion, nationality, sexual orientation, and disability but also to identify common biases and question intents. The MBSS employs a dual stream bias mitigation system, where the standard stream addresses common biases and the mitigation stream targets specific biases, allowing for nuanced and effective bias reduction by making decisions based on the difference in predicted probabilities between these two streams. Empirical results demonstrate MBSS's efficacy, especially in reducing religious bias by up to 71%, highlighting its potential to foster a more inclusive digital environment and enhance the representation of diverse groups.

Daughters and daughters-in-law providing elderly care: a qualitative study from Karachi, Pakistan

Background and contextProviding care to the elderly is an emerging area of interest due to the increase in elderly population not only in the developed world but also in low and middle income countries. In Pakistan a country with an overall population of over 200 million, the elderly population amounts to 11.3 million. Caregiving of the elderly tends to occur within the kinship motivated by sociocultural norms as well as absence of government support facilities. While quantitative literature exists in Pakistan describing the “caregiver’s burden,” an in-depth analysis into the experiences of familial caregivers is missing.MethodsThe research used qualitative methods with the aim to explore the lived experiences of 7 daughters and 3 daughters-in-law, living in Karachi, Pakistan providing care to the elderly requiring assistance in at least two tasks of daily living.ResultsFive themes were developed inductively through the phenomenological method. All participants were Muslim and belonged to the upper economic strata of the society. Findings reveal that obligations to care are dominant in kinship circles particularly among women. Participants highlighted the importance of elderly in the Pakistani society, especially due to the religious lens that considers them as blessings. Daughter caregivers spoke about caregiving of their parents as a form of role reversal, emphasizing also upon the life-long emotional bond that served as a strong motivator. On the other hand, for daughter-in-law caregivers, motivations to care also stemmed from social expectations and kinship obligations. All participants reported multiple difficulties during the caregiving experience, despite existence of paid formal help, with respect to balancing multiple role demands and the nature of caregiving that requires constant effort. Results also illustrate that despite the desire to care for the elderly within a collectivist and patrilocal society, participants experienced multiple physical and emotional effects. However, a few also reported an increase in self-mastery and self-worth.ConclusionThis study reveals that despite increasing urbanization and more women working outside the home, providing care to the elderly appears to be centered within the kinship circle. The research makes important contributions to the ageing literature in Pakistan with relevance to other South Asian contexts.

Female Sexualities under a Patriarchal Microscope: An Interrogation of Buchi Emecheta’s Double Yoke

This qualitative study amplifies the endemic policing of female bodies by patriarchal ideology whereby the sexual lives of African women are often suppressed whereas men receive little to no scrutiny. The paper thematically analyses Emecheta’s purposively sampled novel Double Yoke (1983) to interrogate the aforementioned problem which is still relevant to the present collective African milieu. Stiwanism is employed as a theoretical lens particularly because of its advocacy for bodily autonomy and selfhood as part of the important freedoms that African women should be afforded in the realisation of social transformation. The main finding was that throughout African history, this prejudiced supervision has existed and consequences included psychological harm as well as ostracisation. Therefore, this study recommends that sexual rights bills be supplemented by sociopolitical will and that African societies be conscientised. To ensure the overall wellbeing of all members in society, biased beliefs about sexuality should be abolished.

Barking up the wrong tree? Voter bias and female underrepresentation in Japanese politics

Abstract Previous studies on gender bias in the evaluation of politicians by voters have reported mixed results. We seek to understand these mixed findings by focusing on Japan, where female political representation is the lowest among advanced democracies and gender stereotypes are prevalent. We consider that gender stereotypes and the dearth of women in politics affect the evaluation of politicians via two distinct mechanisms: biased beliefs and weak priors. The two mechanisms are assumed to run counter to each other, thus leading to the null or mixed findings for gendered evaluation reported by previous studies. To test our argument, we conduct a series of survey experiments in Japan. Our findings conform to neither of the two mechanisms. Even in a society with low female political representation, we find no evidence of the gendered evaluation of candidates by voters. We suggest that rather than biasing voters’ evaluation of candidates, gender stereotypes dissuade women from aspiring to a political career and elite electoral gatekeepers from selecting female candidates.

Belief elicitation under competing motivations: Does it matter how you ask?

Beliefs, alongside preferences, are an important driver of behaviour. While preferences are often inferred by the choices made, measuring beliefs is not straightforward. We design a giving experiment to compare different methods of measuring beliefs, with and without monetary incentives. Consistent with a simple theoretical framework, we find that elicited beliefs about the giving decisions of others are biased and self-serving when no incentive is offered, with non-donors reporting that giving is rare. Offering a simple incentive does not reduce the bias in beliefs; however, this bias is not observed when using an incentivised method which makes the monetary outcome associated with accurately predicting beliefs more prominent. Our findings suggest that when self-interested motivations compete with accuracy incentives, beliefs are sensitive to how they are measured.

God and Group: The Religious Ecology of Hate Crimes Against Jews and Muslims in the United States

In the United States, hate crimes that are motivated by religious bias disproportionately impact minoritized religious groups. This study investigates religious ecological predictors of hate crimes against Jews and Muslims in the US, drawing on theories of religion and intergroup offending. Measures of areal religious composition and change are drawn from two waves of the US Religion Census. Multilevel logistic regression models predict incidence of anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim hate crimes across county-years (2010–2018), adjusting for law enforcement agency coverage, hate crime reporting, and social and political factors. Christian adherence and overall religious diversity are associated with lower incidence of anti-Jewish hate crime. Jewish and Muslim adherence are positively associated with anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim hate crime, respectively, and counties undergoing relatively large increases in Muslim adherence have heightened incidence of anti-Muslim hate crime. Implications for theory and policy, as well as opportunities for future research, are discussed.

Diskursus Penafsiran Tentang Sedekah Kepada Non–Muslim di Kalangan Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) dan Muhammadiyah (MU)

This article explores the interpretation of almsgiving to non-Muslims according to the views of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah (MU). It is grounded in Surah Al-Baqarah, verse 272, which discusses the Prophet Muhammad's guidance against limiting almsgiving exclusively to Muslims and prohibits offering humanitarian assistance with the condition of converting to Islam. The study investigates how NU and MU understand almsgiving to non-Muslims, particularly focusing on their interpretation of the boundaries of almsgiving within the framework of Surah Al-Baqarah, verse 272, and their perspectives on its legal implications. The research uses a qualitative approach, gathering data through direct observations and interviews with NU leaders. The findings reveal that both NU and MU, based on their interpretations and scriptural evidence, concur that Allah SWT does not forbid acts of kindness toward non-Muslims who have established peaceful relations and do not engage in hostilities against Muslims. The verse also does not prevent fair treatment of them. The shared understanding between NU and MU is reflected in the similar meanings of Surah Al-Mumtahanah, verse 8, and Surah Al-Insan, verse 8, which underscore the principle of justice without religious bias. The conclusion is that almsgiving to non-Muslims is permissible. This study seeks to convey this perspective to the broader community and members of Islamic organizations, referencing relevant tafsir texts to provide a thorough explanation of the debate on almsgiving to non-Muslims and the interpretation of Surah Al-Baqarah, verse 272

Religious Expression and Exemptions in the Private Sector Workplace: Spotting Bias

Abstract Courts tasked with ruling on religious freedom claims in the private sector workplace have been faced with the following challenge: too weak a protection of religious freedom and it will become meaningless; too strong, and individual freedom will be stifled. Recently, courts on each side of the Atlantic have, respectively, leant towards each of these two extremes. In Europe, courts have afforded minimalist and, as I will argue, too restrictive a protection to religious interests. Whether out of deference to state constitutional traditions or economic interests, they have often undermined the protection of religious freedom. Conversely, in the United States, the Supreme Court has granted a maximalist and, as I will argue, excessive protection to religious interests. The article will demonstrate the flaws of each approach. It will unravel the main three types of bias that underlie these extreme positions, namely the state, the economic and the religious bias.

The role of food reward in the associations between weight-based discrimination and feeding practices among caregivers of young children

Certain caregiver feeding practices, including restrictive feeding for weight control, restrictive feeding for health, emotion regulation feeding, and reward feeding, are known to negatively influence short- and long-term child eating and health outcomes. Beyond body size, the precise psychosocial characteristics of caregivers more likely to engage in such feeding practices are unknown. In particular, caregivers who have experienced discrimination based on their weight, who have internalized those biased beliefs, or who find food to be very rewarding may be more likely to use restrictive or controlling feeding practices. The present study investigated the associations among experiences of weight-based discrimination, internalized weight bias, and food reward (i.e., reward-based eating drive) with use of restriction for weight control, restriction for health, emotion regulation feeding, and reward feeding in an online US sample of caregivers (M = 35.27 ± 9.08 y/o) of 2–5 year-old children (N = 305). About half (50.8%) of respondents self-identified as women and most as non-Hispanic (88.5%) and White (75.1%). There were significant positive correlations among caregivers' experience of weight-based discrimination, internalized weight bias, and use of all four feeding practices. Regression results showed that caregivers’ food reward moderated the main effect of weight-based discrimination on restrictive feeding for weight control and emotion regulation feeding, such that caregivers who were high in food reward and who experienced discrimination were most likely to engage in these feeding practices. These results can inform interventions aimed at improving child food environments and health.

The effects of strength and activation level of belief on belief-biased reasoning.

The belief bias effect designates the tendency to judge the validity of a conclusion based on its believability. Most studies have compared highly believable with unbelievable conclusions when examining belief-biased reasoning. In two studies, we examine a hypothesis raised by Banks (2013, Cognitive Science, 37[3], 544-577), who postulated that level of activation of belief should affect the extent to which reasoning is biased. Here, a first study found that moderately believable conclusions produced a significant biasing effect, but one that was smaller than with highly believable conclusions. The second study found that activating the category referenced by a conclusion significantly increased the biasing effect of the same conclusion. These results suggest that strength of belief is a necessary parameter of any model of belief bias. They also show that context can affect the extent to which belief affects reasoning.

Attitudes to inequality: preferences and beliefs

Abstract To understand attitudes to inequality, we need to study people’s fairness preferences and beliefs about the sources of inequality. This article reviews the existing experimental literature on fairness, including our new study ‘Fairness Across the World’ that collected novel data on attitudes to inequality in 60 countries. We establish that people in general are more willing to accept inequalities that reflect differences in performance than inequalities that reflect differences in luck—and that people care more about fairness than efficiency. We also document that people differ in their fairness preferences both within and between countries. Richer countries are more meritocratic, and, correspondingly, richer people are more meritocratic within countries. People also differ in their beliefs about the sources of inequality both between and within countries, and the evidence is consistent with people having a self-serving bias in beliefs.

Skeptical Employers: Experimental Evidence on Biased Beliefs Constraining Firm Growth

Abstract Does low trust in workers discourage firms from hiring? We conduct an experiment in Ghana with real entrepreneurs who have the option to hire anonymous workers for a trivial but tedious task. Shirking attracts no penalty and completion of the task is an indicator of trustworthiness. We elicit employers’ expectations and study how they change with random signals of workers’ previous behavior. We find that employers underestimate workers’ trustworthiness, which reduces hiring and profits. Negative signals lower employers’ expectations, while positive signals do not affect them. This asymmetry can help to sustain an equilibrium with limited experimentation and biased beliefs.

Opportunity Unraveled: Private Information and the Missing Markets for Financing Human Capital

We examine whether adverse selection has unraveled private markets for equity and state-contingent debt contracts for financing higher education. Using survey data on beliefs, we show a typical college-goer would have to repay $1.64 in present value for every $1 of financing to overcome adverse selection in an equity market. We find that risk-averse college-goers are not willing to accept these terms, so markets unravel. We discuss why moral hazard, biased beliefs, and outside credit options are less likely to explain the absence of these markets. We quantify the welfare gains for subsidizing equity-like contracts that mitigate college-going risks. (JEL D82, D83, G51, I22, I23, I26, J24)

On the optimality of policy choices in the face of biased beliefs, retrospective voting and the down-up problem

Previous literature has shown that voters’ biased beliefs regarding policy outcomes incentivize the selection of seemingly better, but socially worse, policies. It has also shown that voters’ tendency to gauge an incumbent’s competence by the present state of the economy (retrospective voting) could counteract biased beliefs. In this article, we argue that, when the advantageous consequences of a measure of policy only accrue with considerable lag (the down-up problem), retrospective voting instead amplifies the effects of biased beliefs. Still, we find that it may nevertheless be optimal for an incumbent to select good long-term policies if the incumbent is strongly motivated by the success of the chosen policies. Finally, we investigate the robustness of these conclusions by considering an incumbent bias, limited accountability, and the introduction of incentive and threshold contracts.