Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model Research Articles

Revisiting the real exchange rate misalignment‐economic growth nexus via the across‐sector misallocation channel

AbstractThis study assesses whether the component of across‐sector labor and capital misallocation induced by real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignments in turn significantly affects economic development. REER imbalances are derived from a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate model; labor and capital misallocation is measured according to indicators in Ando and Nassar (IMF Working Papers, 2017, 17, 1) and Aoki (Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2012, 26, pp. 473–494), on a unique cross‐country cross‐sector national account dataset of 54 countries and 12 sectors over 1980–2015. Both REER over‐ and undervaluations are found to lead to rising across‐sector labor (but not capital) misallocation and, uniquely via this channel, significantly hamper real growth.

How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?

This paper evaluates the reliability of alternative equilibrium exchange rate assessments. The literature has predominantly relied on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model, which attempts to establish a long-term link between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals. We challenge the recent tendency among BEER modelers to increase the number of regressors. The wisdom of this choice is evaluated with the criterion that equilibrium exchange rates should help predict the future trajectory of real exchange rates. Using panel data for 30 countries during the period 1991–2018, we show that it is hard to outperform both a parsimonious BEER model (with only three fundamentals) and the relative PPP model (which excludes a role for fundamentals in the long run). This finding calls for caution in the ability of economists to closely map the evolution of equilibrium exchange rates and economic fundamentals. • Behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (EER) models are widely used by policy makers. • Large BEER models are commonly believed to be more reliable than simple ones. • We assess BEER model reliability within a forecasting competition framework. • We find that the increased model complexity is counterproductive out-of-sample. • The claim that we understand long-term drivers of real exchange rates beyond PPP is doubtful.

Estimation of Impact of Quantitative Easing Policy on EUR/USD using behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model

The article examines the impact of the policy of the uSA quantitative easing and the euro area on the nominal EuR/ uSD exchange rate. After the economic crisis of 2008–2009, the policy of quantitative easing gained popularity among the world’s largest economies. The largest programs were implemented by the uS Federal Reserve (uS Federal Reserve System) and the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the impact of the actual purchase volume of securities on the EuR/uSD exchange rate within these policies has been little studied in modern literature. The author collected the data from 1999 to 2018 on the exchange rate, macroeconomic and market indicators, and calculated the monthly actual purchase volumes of securities under the asset purchase program of the united States and the euro area. The behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model was used. The linear model specification and the error correction model identified no significant impact of the ECB quantitative easing policy expressed in the actual purchase volume of securities. However, for some specifications, it has been proven that the increase in purchases of securities by the uS Federal Reserve leads to a weakening of the dollar against the euro. The cointegration test revealed a long-term dependence of the EuR/uSD exchange rate on the accumulated volumes of acquired assets. Thus, an increase in the purchase volume of securities led to a weakening of the dollar against the euro. The insignificant impact of the European Central Bank quantitative easing policy could have been caused by market expectations formed prior to the actual purchase of ECB securities in the market.

Diagnosing the curse of natural resources in Kuwait

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the phenomenon of natural resource curse in an oil abundant economy of Kuwait. The study estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Kuwait during the period 1980-2014 to assess the impact of prices and productivity factors on real effective exchange rate.Design/methodology/approachIt uses time series econometric techniques, such as unit root tests, Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model, and Impulse Response Function, to estimate the model.FindingsUnlike the results of the few other studies, the empirical results show a significant impact of the variables, such as balance of trade, economic growth, oil exports, interest rate, and inflation rate, on real effective exchange rate appreciation which indicates the existence of Dutch disease within the Kuwaiti economy. Similarly, the comparative analysis between changes in public expenditure and inflation rate shows the existence of Dutch disease in Kuwait during specific periods of time.Originality/valueNatural resource curse or Dutch disease is a widely recognized phenomenon affecting the balance of economic activities in natural resource abundant countries. Symptoms of Dutch disease are perceived in several changes in the economy, particularly on price level, sectorial productivity, employment, and aggregate demand which in the long run worsen the country’s economic position and lower its international competitiveness. Dutch disease is not only a feature of natural resource abundant economies, but also can affect any economy with excessive revenue generating sector or high capital inflows which appreciates country’s exchange rate. However, the examination of Dutch disease in the economy is more important when investigating the impact on oil-producing countries (Apergis et al. 2014; Mohammadi and Jahan-Parvar, 2012; Jahan-Parvar and Mohammadi, 2011). Therefore, scholars studying Dutch disease phenomenon pay greater attention to cases of Dutch disease among oil-producing countries (i.e. Arezki and Ismail, 2013; Van der Ploeg and Venables, 2013; Jahan-Parvar, 2012; Cologni and Manera, 2013).

Understanding the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model Via its Application to the Valuation of Chinese Renminbi

In this paper, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model used in a time-series setting is investigated, via its application to the valuation of Chinese renminbi. A classical definition with its generalization is given. The different misalignment results derived from the BEER models are proven to result from the different econometric component choices. It is found that some of the misalignment results are consistent with Chinese economic facts, but some others are not. Finally, four main flaws unavoidable under the BEER model are given and analyzed.

Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey

This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate of the Turkish lira to evaluate whether or not the overvaluation results in currency crisis and low growth rate over the period from the first quarter of 1987 to the fourth quarter of 2010. We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, where the equilibrium real exchange rate depends on both the balance of payments approach and the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. The results indicate that although large and persistent overvaluation contributes to a crisis in Turkey, a relatively small overvaluation, contrary to both the Washington Consensus view and the Rodrik view, promotes the growth of Turkish economy.

The Impact of Oil-Related Incomeon the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria

This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future.

The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria

This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future.

Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana

The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana. Regression results show that most of the REER's long-run behavior can be explained by real GDP growth, real interest rate differentials (both relative to trading-partner countries), and the real world prices of Ghana's main export commodities. On the basis of these fundamentals, the REER in late 2006 was found to be very close to its estimated equilibrium level. The results also suggest, that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within two to three years.

Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana

The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana. Regression results show that most of the REER's long-run behavior can be explained by real GDP growth, real interest rate differentials (both relative to trading-partner countries), and the real world prices of Ghana's main export commodities. On the basis of these fundamentals, the REER in late 2006 was found to be very close to its estimated equilibrium level. The results also suggest, that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within two to three years.