Trading Behavior Research Articles

Institutional Trading and Managers' Complex Disclosure: Evidence From Conference Calls

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the impact of managerial linguistic disclosures on institutional trading behaviors during earnings conference calls from 2006 to 2016. Utilizing the linguistic Fog decomposition methodology on textual analysis, it analyzes how the linguistic complexity of managerial communication influences institutional ownership changes. Findings indicate that both obfuscation and informativeness of managerial discourse significantly affect institutional trading, with effects varying based on the informativeness of post‐call analyst reports. This impact is more pronounced under conditions of earnings quality uncertainty, suggesting a heightened reliance on managerial cues by institutional investors during such periods. Additionally, the study differentiates responses among investor types: transient investors are more sensitive to linguistic cues, while dedicated and quasi‐indexer investors focus on the informational content of disclosures. These insights enhance understanding of how managerial communication and analyst report informativeness shape institutional trading behaviors through linguistic complexity's influence on institutional ownership.

Infrastructure and the patterns of trade: An empirical look at China

Transport infrastructure plays an important role in economic growth, particularly for developing countries. Recently a burgeoning literature explores how transport infrastructure facilitates economic growth via the channel of trade. In this paper, we study this question in the context of China, but with several distinctions. First, we distinguish firms from different regions in China, and see how their trade behavior responds differently to changes in infrastructure. Second, we consider both export and domestic sales, with an eye toward the interplay between the two channels. Our estimation results reveal the presence of both regional heterogeneity and sales channel competition. For in-land provinces, an improvement in their transport infrastructure raises firms’ exports at the cost of domestic sales. Interestingly, the results are reversed for coastal provinces, mainly driven by non-coastal cities of coastal provinces (rather than coastal cities). We also find negative spatial spillover, in the sense that neighboring provinces tend to compete with rather than complement each other. Our analysis has important policy implications under the current geopolitical tension and policy initiatives (e.g. dual circulation in China).

Follow the gaze: How social attention shapes gendered trading choices

We explore how visual attention differentially impacts the trading behavior of men and women. In the laboratory, eye-tracking technology measures information gaze during a sequential trading game in which participants are asked to buy or sell an asset. Before making a decision, traders receive information on the trading decisions of other participants (others' decisions) and the redemption value of the asset (private information). Research documents that women, compared to men, pay more attention to social cues. In this study, women are more attention-driven when making financial decisions, as compared to men. We conclude that attentional priority is a cognitive mechanism that can account for the increased tendency of women, compared to men, to follow the social cues of others with disparate information and tournament incentives.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Feedback Trading Dynamics: Unveiling Global Patterns

This study analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted stock markets worldwide using the COVID-19 Global Fear Index (GFI) devised by Salisu and Akanni (2020). We examine feedback trading behaviors in stock indices across 70 countries, revealing a complex relationship between pandemic-sentiment and feedback trading. Our study finds that GFI primarily motivates negative feedback trading in many developed countries, particularly those in higher latitudes, while the relationship between pandemic-sentiment and feedback trading is complex and varies across regions. Notably, China and India deviate from these patterns, exhibiting no significant feedback trading effects. These results highlight how regional differences shape financial market responses to the COVID-19 crisis. This analysis offers valuable insights into the pandemic's nuanced impact on global financial markets, emphasizing the distinct reactions across diverse geographic regions.

The Impact of Earning Press Releases Sentiment on Abnormal Stock Returns and Volatility

This dissertation investigates the impact of sentiment in earnings press releases on abnormal stock returns and volatility based on 150 countries from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2016. Using Henry’s dictionary method for sentiment analysis, the study finds a negative association between optimistic tones in press releases and abnormal stock returns, implying that highly positive sentiment may trigger lower market reactions. Additionally, the results indicate that positive sentiment in press releases leads to reduced abnormal volatility both immediately and consistently over a period of 5 days, 10 days, and 30 days. These findings remain robust even after accounting for the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. By addressing both short-term and long-term effects, this research contributes to the literature on enhancing the understanding of how effectively investors incorporate sentiment from press releases into their trading behaviours.

Statistical Predictions of Trading Strategies in Electronic Markets

We build statistical models to describe how market participants choose the direction, price, and volume of orders. Our dataset, which spans 16 weeks for four shares traded in Euronext Amsterdam, contains all messages sent to the exchange and includes algorithm identification and member identification. We obtain reliable out-of-sample predictions and report the top features that predict direction, price, and volume of orders sent to the exchange. The coefficients from the fitted models are used to cluster trading behavior and we find that algorithms registered as Liquidity Providers exhibit the widest range of trading behavior among dealing capacities. In particular, for the most liquid share in our study, we identify three types of behavior that we call (i) directional trading, (ii) opportunistic trading, and (iii) market making, and we find that around one-third of Liquidity Providers behave as market markers.

National differences in gambling-driven stock trading behavior: evidence from a simulated trading game

There are significant differences in real-life gambling behavior between Germany and Italy. Contemporary theories suggest that these differences in individual preferences would translate to differences in trading behavior. We elicited trading behavior from participants of both Italian and German language groups using a stylized hold-or-trade scenario distributed via a survey. Additionally, we collected data on their self-stated gambling preferences. Our findings confirm the existence of large and significant differences in gambling consumption, problem gambling, and trading behavior between the two nationalities. Furthermore, we observed that gambling preferences explain most of the national differences. This suggests that established factors of financial decision-making play a more prominent role in explaining national differences in trading behavior than any latent cultural factors.

Effect of Perceived Technology Acceptance on Online Stock Trading Behavior: An Empirical Analysis

This study investigates the influence of perceived technology acceptance on the online stock trading behavior of retail investors. The objective of this research is to examine the predictors of online stock trading behavior and their impact. Using a regression model, the findings reveal that perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and perceived benefit significantly contribute to and promote online stock trading behavior. The standardized coefficients indicate a strong positive relationship between perceived usefulness (β = 0.838), perceived ease of use (β = 0.727), and perceived benefit (β = 0.783) with online stock trading behavior. The results suggest that retail investors are more inclined to engage in online stock trading when they perceive technology as useful, easy to use, and beneficial. This study underscores the pivotal role of technological applications in shaping the behavior of retail investors in the online stock trading environment, shedding light on the factors that drive participation in this increasingly digitized investment landscape.

When Chinese mania meets global frenzy: Commodity price bubbles

This paper examines price bubbles in global commodity markets. We find that positive bubbles are more driven by fundamental shocks, while negative bubbles are more influenced by pessimistic market views on prices and the economy. Furthermore, bubble determinants vary across geographic regions. Trader behavior and policy uncertainty play prominent roles in influencing price bubbles in China, while global bubbles are predominantly shaped by rational responses to inventory, growth, and inflation. Finally, only positive bubbles exhibit contagion across regions. Overall, our findings suggest that asset price bubbles arise from traders' behavioral responses to a combination of fundamental, macroeconomic, and idiosyncratic shocks.

Impact of Black Swan Events on Ethereum blockchain ERC20 token transaction networks

The Ethereum blockchain and its ERC20 token standard have revolutionized the landscape of digital assets and decentralized applications. ERC20 tokens are programmable and interoperable tokens, enabling various applications and token economies. Transaction graphs, representing the flow of the value between wallets within the Ethereum network, have played a crucial role in understanding the system’s dynamics, such as token transfers and the behavior of traders. Here, we explore the evolution of daily transaction graphs of ERC20 token transactions, which sheds light on the trader’s behavior during the Black Swan Events – 2018 crypto crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. By using the tools from network science and differential geometry, we analyze 0.98 billion of ERC20 token transaction data from November 2015 to January 2023. Our analysis reveals an increase in diverse interaction among the traders and a greater adoption of ERC20 tokens in a maturing Ethereum ERC20 financial ecosystem after the Crypto Crash 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Before the crash and the COVID-19 pandemic, most traders interacted with other traders in an isolated or restricted manner, with each trader focusing solely on either buying or selling activities. However, after the crash and during the pandemic, most traders diversely interacted among themselves by participating in both buying and selling activities. In addition, we observe no significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on user behavior in the financial ecosystem.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trading in the Stock Market: A Legal Perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global stock markets, leading to unprecedented volatility and legal challenges. This study explores how the pandemic altered trading behavior and examines the associated legal ramifications. In March 2020, stock markets experienced a sharp decline, prompting the U.S. Federal Reserve and other regulatory bodies to intervene. While markets rebounded, volatility persisted, introducing heightened risks for investors. Non- professional investors became more active, complicating regulatory oversight. From a legal perspective, the pandemic raised concerns about stock price manipulation, insider trading, and market abuse. Regulators, like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), responded by implementing temporary measures to maintain market integrity. These legal frameworks, designed for traditional crises, struggled to address the unique challenges posed by COVID-19. Furthermore, the pandemic revealed gaps in existing laws, prompting calls for updated regulations to manage market disruptions during non-financial crises. The study underscores the need for ongoing legal adaptation to safeguard markets and prevent exploitation during global emergencies. As the pandemic evolved, so did the legal landscape, with cases emerging that highlighted both opportunistic trading and regulatory inadequacies. This research contributes to understanding the intersection of market volatility and legal frameworks in times of crisis.

Are investors attentive before a one-off holiday?

PurposeThis study investigates investor trading behaviour around regular and one-off public holidays on the Sydney Stock Exchange (SSX) from 1901 to 1950. The purpose is to examine whether trading patterns differ between regular holidays, which are known in advance, and one-off holidays, which are unexpected. The study provides insights into the predictability of holidays and its influence on market activity, contributing to the broader literature on investor inattention and market anomalies.Design/methodology/approachUsing a novel dataset constructed from handwritten share price lists covering 14,224 trading days, we perform quantitative analysis to assess trading volume before and after regular and one-off public holidays. Ordinary least squares regression models are employed to identify the presence of a holiday effect, accounting for various fixed effects and time-varying factors such as geopolitical events.FindingsWe find that trading volume is significantly lower on the day before regular holidays and higher on the day after, consistent with the investor inattention hypothesis. In contrast, no significant holiday effect is observed for one-off holidays. This suggests that predictability plays a crucial role in influencing investor behaviour, with irregular, less predictable holidays having less impact on trading patterns.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited by the historical nature of the data, which may not fully capture the diversity of modern trading environments. Additionally, the analysis is restricted to the SSX and may not be generalisable to other markets or time periods. Future research could explore similar effects in different contexts or with more recent data.Practical implicationsThis research provides valuable insights for market participants and regulators by demonstrating how the predictability of holidays influences market activity. Understanding these patterns could help in making more informed decisions during periods of expected low trading volumes.Social implicationsThe study underscores the role of public holidays in shaping investor behaviour, with broader implications for understanding how societal events influence financial markets. This is particularly relevant in discussions about the impact of unexpected events on market stability.Originality/valueThis is the first study to compare the effects of regular and one-off public holidays on trading volumes in a historical stock market context. Our findings highlight the importance of event predictability in financial markets, offering a new perspective on how historical market behaviours can inform current financial theories.

Government Ownership, Political Regime, and Flipping of IPOs in Pakistan: Evidence from Emerging Market

This study investigates how government ownership (state-owned IPOs) and the political regime affect the flipping of IPO shares, as well as the moderating impact of investor demand on the association between the political regime and flipping activity. Ordinary least square was employed to investigate the impact of government ownership and political regime on the flipping of IPO shares. The data set consists of 95 IPO firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) during the period of January 2000 to December 2019. The findings of this study reveal that government ownership and a political regime have a positive influence on the flipping of IPO shares, demonstrating the quality that creates liquidity in Pakistan’s IPO market. Furthermore, in Pakistan, investor demand has been reported to moderate the association between the political regime and IPO flipping activity. This research offers valuable insights that may result in abnormal trading behavior or flipping immediately after listing. Likewise, state-owned IPOs and the political regime appear to be more appealing to investors, signaling the firms’ high quality, causing in increased demand and higher levels of flipping. As a result, the government and regulators may devise policies to control unusual trading, ensuring that government investments in the capital market are successful and also that the government’s economic and political objectives are met. Moreover, this research is critical for investors and issuers making investment decisions. JEL Classification: G12, G18, G32.

Reevaluating the Most Favored-Nation Treatment: Addressing Challenges in Modern Trade

As global trade continues to evolve, the foundational principles that govern international commerce are increasingly scrutinized. The Most Favored-Nation (MFN) principle, a cornerstone of the World Trade Organization (WTO), was designed to foster fairness by mandating equal trade concessions for all members, thereby ensuring non-discriminatory trading behaviors. This research paper focused on the challenges of the Most Favored-Nation (MFN) principle within the World Trade Organization (WTO), a clause that mandates equal trade concessions for all members, ensuring non-discrimination. The research question investigates whether the MFN principle effectively promotes fairness in international trade or if it unintentionally exacerbates economic inequalities, particularly for developing countries. Findings reveal that MFN clauses often reduce market competition and lead to higher prices, while also disadvantaging developing countries that struggle to compete with developed nations. The paper underscores the need for MFN principle reform, such as advocating for differential pricing strategies for enhancing economic competition, setting exceptions for the poorest countries to implement tailored trade policies, and empowering these nations to challenge unfair practices by richer countries. These reforms aim to create a fairer and more balanced global trade system that supports inclusive economic growth for the whole world.

Dynamic operating envelopes embedded peer-to-peer-to-grid energy trading

A novel decentralized peer-to-peer-to-grid (P2P2G) trading mechanism considering distribution network integrity is proposed. In order to direct prosumers’ peer-to-peer (P2P) trading behavior to be grid-friendly, the proposed method incorporates Dynamic Operating Envelopes (DOEs) into the existing P2P2G trading. Moreover, DOEs are determined through negotiations between the distribution system operator (DSO) and prosumers alongside the process of P2P trading, avoiding compromising prosumers’ privacy and network parameters leakage. To reduce communication costs during P2P trading, a variant of the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), i.e., communication-censored ADMM (COCA) is used to solve the P2P2G trading problem. Finally, the DOE price is shown to be comprised of several economically interpretable components. Simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism.

Cryptocurrency hacking and trader behavior in bitcoin futures

We investigate the effect of cryptocurrency hacking on trader positions in CME bitcoin futures. Our results indicate that the occurrence of hacking and fraudulent incidents lead to more net-short positions and fewer participation ratio for leveraged funds in bitcoin futures. Additionally, U.S. dollar index, futures basis, and price efficiency also play significant roles in the trading of leveraged funds. Lastly, we find that the number of hacking incidents negatively affects dealers’ net-long positions. This study provides new insights into trader behaviors in bitcoin futures and offers practical implications for bitcoin investors and regulators.

Endowment effects, expectations, and trading behavior in carbon cap and trade

We explain agents' trading behaviors and market outcomes in the presence of endowment effects intensified by expectations-based loss aversion in carbon cap and trade. Building on Kőszegi and Rabin (2006)’s model with forward-looking reference points, we show how firms' concerns about high future compliance costs (through loss aversion and uncertainty) can cause a gap between Willingness-to-Pay and Willingness-to-Accept for allowances. This leads to limited allowance trading and deviation from the socially desirable paths. The problem can be exacerbated under a substantial proportion of free allocation, a fixed (or inflexible) cap as well as uncertain regulatory ambitions, particularly in emerging economies under a variety of uncertainty. Recognizing the regulator's role in dealing with firms' expectations (or concerns) and facilitating innovation investments, we discuss potential alternative systems (e.g., with auction and flexible supply) for decarbonization that incorporate flexibility in terms of innovation timing and realized costs.

Religious practices, fasting, and individuals’ trading behavior: a natural experiment

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of seasonality caused by fasting as a religious practice on trading activity. Design/methodology/approach The authors use an unbiased sample of daily trading by individuals and institutions on the Boursa Kuwait. The authors use panel data on trading activities and Tobit regression models to examine the effect of Muslims’ religious practice of fasting during the holy month of Ramadan on trading behavior. Findings The authors find that during the holy month of Ramadan, Muslims’ religious practice of fasting leads to a decline in the frequency of both overall stock market trading and the ratio of individual trading volume to total trading volume. The authors find a significant decrease in individual buy-side trading as a proportion of total trading volume and simultaneously a significant increase in institutional buy-side trading. Practical implications This study’s findings have important implications for the main players in stock markets of countries with a Muslim majority. Market-makers should be aware of the significant increase in the proportion of institutional buy-side trading volume to total trading volume to minimize the cost of trading with better-informed traders (adverse selection). Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that investigates individuals’ trading activity during Ramadan.

Does Short Selling Regulate Insider Trading?

This study investigates the impact of short selling on the relationship between the insider net buying ratio and excess returns, as well as on insider selling volume. The research period is divided into three distinct phases: short selling allowed, short selling banned, and partial short selling. The two primary findings of the analysis are as follows. First, the profitability of insider trading, assessed through the relationship between the insider net buying ratio and excess returns, is impacted positively when short selling is banned and negatively when it is permitted. Second, the insider selling volume significantly increases following short selling bans and decreases when the same is allowed. These results suggest that short sellers function as a market discipline mechanism, regulating both the profitability and volume of insider trading. This indicates that short selling regulations wield a substantial influence on the behavior and profitability of insider trading.

Manipulating stock prices based on insider information

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the trading behavior of insider investors before and after information releases, identifying information-based manipulation in the stock market and the characteristics of companies whose stock prices are manipulated. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs logit regression method and an event study approach, utilizing hand-collected data from 2010 to 2022, with information categorized into negative and positive types. Findings The results show no evidence of insider trading or negative information-based manipulation in both high and low transparency firms. However, in highly transparent companies, the Board of Directors (BOD) avoids direct manipulation by using relatives to evade market supervisors. In low transparency companies, both the BOD and family members (FM) exploit positive information to benefit personally by buying shares before releasing favorable news, causing a sharp stock increase, and selling afterward. Continued buying by the BOD and FM also suggests likely positive news announcements. Practical implications The characteristics of information-based manipulation in companies, as provided by this study, help individual investors avoid investing in stocks that are highly susceptible to manipulation. Originality/value Empirical research on information-based manipulation is scarce due to limited secondary data. Our study uses transaction data from insider investors in a frontier market with low transparency and high information asymmetry. This enables us to analyze information-based stock price manipulation. We identify manipulation by comparing insiders' trading behavior with their market information releases, resulting in stock price fluctuations greater than 5%.