BackgroundRuptured atherosclerotic plaques often precipitate severe ischemic events, such as stroke and myocardial infarction. Unraveling the intricate molecular mechanisms governing vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) behavior in plaque stabilization remains a formidable challenge.MethodsIn this study, we leveraged single-cell and transcriptomic datasets from atherosclerotic plaques retrieved from the gene expression omnibus (GEO) database. Employing a combination of single-cell population differential analysis, weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA), and transcriptome differential analysis techniques, we identified specific genes steering the transformation of VSMCs in atherosclerotic plaques. Diagnostic models were developed and validated through gene intersection, utilizing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest (RF) methods. Nomograms for plaque assessment were constructed. Tissue localization and expression validation were performed on specimens from animal models, utilizing immunofluorescence co-localization, western blot, and reverse-transcription quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Various online databases were harnessed to predict transcription factors (TFs) and their interacting compounds, with determination of the cell-specific localization of TF expression using single-cell data.ResultsFollowing rigorous quality control procedures, we obtained a total of 40,953 cells, with 6,261 representing VSMCs. The VSMC population was subsequently clustered into 5 distinct subpopulations. Analyzing inter-subpopulation cellular communication, we focused on the SMC2 and SMC5 subpopulations. Single-cell subpopulation and WGCNA analyses revealed significant module enrichments, notably in collagen-containing extracellular matrix and cell-substrate junctions. Insulin-like growth factor binding protein 4 (IGFBP4), apolipoprotein E (APOE), and cathepsin C (CTSC) were identified as potential diagnostic markers for early and advanced plaques. Notably, gene expression pattern analysis suggested that IGFBP4 might serve as a protective gene, a hypothesis validated through tissue localization and expression analysis. Finally, we predicted TFs capable of binding to IGFBP4, with Krüppel-like family 15 (KLF15) emerging as a prominent candidate showing relative specificity within smooth muscle cells. Predictions about compounds associated with affecting KLF15 expression were also made.ConclusionOur study established a plaque diagnostic and assessment model and analyzed the molecular interaction mechanisms of smooth muscle cells within plaques. Further analysis revealed that the transcription factor KLF15 may regulate the biological behaviors of smooth muscle cells through the KLF15/IGFBP4 axis, thereby influencing the stability of advanced plaques via modulation of the PI3K-AKT signaling pathway. This could potentially serve as a target for plaque stability assessment and therapy, thus driving advancements in the management and treatment of atherosclerotic plaques.