Behavior Of Real Interest Rates Research Articles

The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective

AbstractWe examine the temporal dynamics of the historical series of real interest rates for France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain pre‐1730 and post‐1800, the United Kingdom, and the United States stretching back to the 14th century. We use the Robinson approach to determine the fractional order of integration and examine both linear deterministic trends and multiple smooth breaks. In the latter case we make use of the Chebyshev polynomials in time. With the exception of two countries (Italy and France), where the linear model appears more appropriate, our results reveal evidence that real interest rates are driven by the interaction between nonlinearities in the deterministic trends and fractional integration processes. They suggest that real interest rates are mean‐reverting but not as persistent as suggested in the literature. In particular, the nonlinear model with autocorrelated errors provides no evidence of long memory, which questions most of the literature on real interest rates. The implications of these results are relevant to evaluate the effectiveness of policy interventions and the theoretical implications of different macroeconomic models as shocks affecting real interest rates will dissipate by themselves.

Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand

We investigate the time-series properties of Australian and New Zealand real interest rates within a Markov-switching framework. This enables us to identify characteristics in real interest rate behavior hitherto unacknowledged. We find that rates switch between alternative stationary regimes characterized by differing means, speeds of mean-reversion and volatility. For New Zealand, high rates of inflation increase the probability of remaining in a regime characterized by a faster speed of adjustment. Further application of this methodology considers the real interest rate differential between Australia and New Zealand and points to differing regimes based on volatility rather than persistence.

Exploring historical economic relationships: two and a half centuries of British interest rates and inflation

In this paper, we use new data and modern time series econometrics to reassess the relationship between interest rates, prices and inflation in Britain across the two and a half centuries from 1750 to 2006 for which reliable data are available. We pay particular attention to monetary regimes that may lead to breaks in the relationship and to associated shifts in the stochastic structure of interest rates and prices. The behaviour of real interest rates is examined in detail and estimates of the expected real rate are calculated using a variety of methods to check for robustness.

Have Real Interest Rates Really Fallen that Much in Spain?

This paper analyses the behaviour of real interest rates in the Spanish economy over the last 15 years. Since inflation-indexed-bonds are not available, changes in implicit real interest rates are estimated using several approaches suggested by macroeconomic and financial theory. In particular, we employ equilibrium conditions of a representative agent under several specifications of preferences. Moreover, we exploit no-arbitrage conditions in securities markets. The evidence we report indicates that inflation uncertainty could account for a notable part of the observed decrease in nominal rates. Consequently, the actual real cost of financing might have decreased significantly less than what the course of ex-post real rates would suggest.

What is the Real Story for Interest Rate Volatility?

What is the source of interest rate volatility? Why do low interest rates precede business cycle booms? Most observers tend to assume that monetary policy is largely responsible for it. Indeed, a standard real business cycle model delivers rather small fluctuations in real interest rates. Here, however, we present two models of the real business cycle variety in which real rate fluctuations are of similar magnitude as in the data, while simultaneously matching salient business cycle facts. The second model also replicates the cyclical behavior of real interest rates. The models build on recent work by Danthine-Donaldson, Jermann, and Boldrin-Christiano-Fisher. We assume that there are workers and capital owners. The first model posits habit formation and adjustment costs to the stock of capital. The second model assumes that it takes time to plan investment and time to build capital.

Empirical Evidence on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

The Austrian business cycle theory suggests that a monetary shock disturbs relative prices, such as the term structure of interest rates, systematically altering profit rates across economic sectors. Resource use responds to those changes, generating a cyclical pattern of real income. The divergence of the interest rate structure, from the previous and unchanged time preferences, means that the expansion is unsustainable and must end in recession. Quarterly data for eight U.S. business cycles, 1950:1 through 1991:1 are standardized by time period and used to explore business cycle facts and relations between money, interest rates, capacity utilization and income. Results are consistent with the hypotheses of the Austrian theory of a business cycle caused by a monetary shock and propagated by relative price changes. The Austrian theory of the business cycle, as originally presented by Mises (1966, 1971) and Hayek (1967), implies several distinctive hypotheses about patterns of relative prices, the response of the income level and its composition, and the role of resource constraints. Business cycle theories demonstrate their power of explanation by hypothesis testing or by simulation in comparison to actual cycles. Since Burns and Mitchell (1946), "stylized facts" of cycles have become the behavior that needs to be explained. Austrian theory offers distinctive stylized facts about the cyclical behavior of real interest rates, changes in composition of capital structure, the relation of short-term to long-term interest rates, and the endogenous nature of expansion and contraction phases. Garrison (1986:449-450), Tullock (1988:74-76), and others have considered the empirical question of the explanatory power of the Austrian theory and whether the mechanism of price induced changes in the composition of the capital stock is sufficient in magnitude to account for the macroeconomic phenomenon of a business cycle. There is a clear need to consider how well the Austrian theory can explain observed cyclical behavior. There have been few empirical analyses of the Austrian theory, due to limited ability to express Austrian concepts in operational terms and to methodological opposition to empiri- cal testing of hypotheses. Mises (1966:56) claimed that "the impracticality of measurement is not due to the lack of technical methods for the establishment of measure. It is due to the absence of constant relations.... Statistical figures referring to economic events are his- torical data. They tell us what happened in a non-repeatable historical case." Within this methodology, empirical behavior could confirm or illustrate theory or characterize historical episodes, but would not be considered evidence in the evaluation of theory. The concepts of subjective economic behavior present widely recognized problems for measurement and

What is the Real Story for Interest Rate Volatility?

Abstract What is the source of interest rate volatility? Why do low interest rates precede business cycle booms? Most observers tend to assume that monetary policy is largely responsible for it. Indeed, a standard real business cycle model delivers rather small fluctuations in real interest rates. Here, however, we present two models of the real business cycle variety, in which the fluctuations of real rates are of similar magnitude as in the data, while simultaneously matching salient business cycle facts. The second model also replicates the cyclical behavior of real interest rates. The models build on recent work by Danthine and Donaldson, Jermann, and Boldrin, Christiano and Fisher. We assume that there are workers and capital owners. The first model posits habit formation and adjustment costs to the stock of capital. The second model assumes that it takes time to plan investment and time to build capital.

A common shift in real interest rates across countries

This paper documents common shifts in the behaviour of real interest rates across different countries following the announcement of monetary policy regime changes of US Federal Reserve procedures in October 1979. This evidence suggests that the observed, big fluctuations in real interest rates in the seventies and eighties across countries may be linked to the changes of the US monetary policy. It also emphasizes the international effects of US monetary policy on ex ante real interest rates across countries.

The time-varying behaviour of real interest rates: a re-evaluation of the recent evidence

A time-varying parameter model with Markov-switching conditional heteroscedasticity is employed to investigate two sources of shifts in real interest rates: (1) shifts in the coefficients relating the ex ante real rate to the nominal rate, the inflation rate and a supply shock variable and (2) unconditional shifts in the variance of the stochastic process. The results underscore the importance of modelling continual change in the ex ante real rate in terms of other economic variables rather than relying on a statistical characterization that permits only a limited number of discrete jumps in the mean of the process. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The time‐varying behaviour of real interest rates: a re‐evaluation of the recent evidence

The time‐varying behaviour of real interest rates: a re‐evaluation of the recent evidence

The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange‐Rate‐Based Stabilization Programs

This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates at the inception of exchange‐rate‐based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on an optimizing model of a small open economy facing imperfect world capital markets. A reduction in the devaluation rate is shown to have a positive impact on real interest rates. By contrast, a program characterized by an initial reduction in the devaluation rate and a perceived future increase in government spending has an ambiguous effect—which depends in particular on the degree of credibility of the fiscal policy stance.

The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Programs

This paper uses the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia to analyze the determinants of the level and growth in earnings of adult male immigrants in their first 3.5 years in Australia. The theoretical framework is based on the immigrant adjustment model, which incorporates both the transferability of immigrant skills and selectively in migration. The cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses generate similar findings. The level and relative growth of earnings are higher for immigrants with higher levels of skill and who are economic/skills tested migrants, as distinct from family based and refugee migrants. The analysis indicates that immigrant economic assimilation does occur and that in these data the cross-section provides a good estimate of the longitudinal progress of immigrants. The findings are robust across statistical techniques.

The Information Content of the Inflation Term Structure

This paper examines the information content of inflation forecasts derived using index-linked and conventional bonds. The paper finds that the derived inflation term structure (ITS) gives a somewhat better indication of the bond market's inflation expectation than can be derived using either the nominal term structure or a variant employing strong assumptions about real interest rate behavior. The inflation forecasts of the ITS also seem at least as good at forecasting future changes in inflation as forecasts derived from macroeconometric models. These characteristics of the ITS and its timeliness tend to make its inflation forecasts a useful addition to policy analysis. Because the real term structure tends to underpredict the level of future real interest rates, index-linked bonds have proved, ex post, to be cheap funding for the U.K. government. But we cannot be sure whether this underprediction results from an inflation risk premium or expectational error and also cannot know whether this overprediction will persist.

Real returns on government debt: A general equilibrium quantitative exploration

We extend and apply computable general equilibrium methods to the study of economies with both aggregate uncertainty and uninsured household-specific uncertainty. In our economies the government issues two types of assets: a small denomination, non-interest bearing asset, which we call currency, and a large denomination, interest bearing asset, which we call T-bills. We find that a real interest rate behavior similar to that observed in the U.S. can be sustained as equilibrium behavior in our class of economies. We also find that policy induced real interest rate changes that are perceived as being permanent have significant real effects and that these effects take a few years to be fully realized.

Nonstationarity of Regressors and Tests on Real-Interest-Rate Behavior

This article reexamines tests on the behavior of real interest rates in light of recent results that indicate that regressors are nonstationary and not strictly exogenous. Strong rejections of constancy of real interest rates that have been found previously in the literature are confirmed here. Although there is some evidence here that real rates are negatively correlated with expected inflation, this result is not as strong as has been indicated by previous research. In addition, results that found a significant negative correlation between real rates and nominal rates before 1979 are not supported here, although there is evidence for a positive correlation of real and nominal interest rates after 1979.

Exploring the real interest rate puzzle

This paper analyzes the puzzling behavior of real interest rates over the 1970–1990 period. Using data on expectations of future prices changes to estimate the expected real rate of interest, we find that the real rate was not so low as reported in the 1970s nor so high as reported in the 1980s. However, the expected real rate is still substantially lower in the 1970s than in the 1980s and the abrupt large structural change that occurred in 1979–1981 still exists.

The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs

This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates in exchange-rate based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on a model with imperfect capital mobility and optimizing agents. A permanent reduction in the devaluation rate is first shown to have an ambiguous effect on real interest rates on impact. The analysis is then extended to consider a stabilization program characterized by an initial reduction in the rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, and the announcement of a future increase in income taxes. The impact effect on real interest rates is shown to depend upon the degree of credibility of the announcement. Real interest rates may fall if agents do not believe that taxes will be raised, and rise if the future tax reform is sufficiently credible.

The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs

This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates at the inception of exchange-rate-based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on an optimizing model of a small open economy facing imperfect world capital markets. A reduction in the devaluation rate is shown to have a positive impact on real interest rates. By contrast, a program characterized by an initial reduction in the devaluation rate and a perceived future increase in government spending has an ambiguous effect - which depends in particular on the degree of credibility of the fiscal policy stance.

Defense spending cutbacks and real interest rates in the neoclassical one-sector and two-sector models

This paper uses the neoclassical one-sector and two-sector models to examine the behavior of real interest rates in response to cutbacks on defense spending on capital goods and army personnel. It is demonstrated that while a permanent decline in defense spending on capital goods and military personnel leaves the term structure unaffected in the one-sector model, the two-sector model predicts that the short and medium term real interest rates rise to give a downward-sloping yield curve when the capital goods producing sector is relatively labor-intensive.

The Determinants of U.S. Real Interest Rates in the Long Run

This paper examines the factors which influence the behavior of real interest rates in the United States over the long run. Data on real and nominal returns to bonds and equities are tested for unit root non-stationarity. The results indicate that real and nominal interest rates and inflation are integrated of order one while the evidence on returns to equities is mixed. Short- and long-term real rates were found to be cointegrated with government deficits, government debt relative to GNP, private wealth, real balances relative to GNP, demographic factors and the marginal productivity of capital; demographic, fiscal, and monetary policy variables appear to be particularly significant.