Bedside Index For Severity In Acute Pancreatitis Research Articles

Predictive value of the Ranson and BISAP scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

To systematically assess and compare the predictive value of the Ranson and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched until February 15, 2023. Outcomes in this analysis included severity and prognosis [mortality, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. The revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used to evaluate the quality of diagnostic accuracy studies. The threshold effect was evaluated for each outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) as well as 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The DeLong test was used for AUC comparisons. For the outcome evaluated by over 9 studies, publication bias was assessed using the Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. Totally 17 studies of 5476 AP patients were included. For severity, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.92); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.74 (0.52, 0.88) and 0.95 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.98); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93, 0.97) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92, 0.96) (P = 0.480). For mortality, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.58, 0.89); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.87) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86, 0.93); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.93) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90, 0.94) (P = 0.480). For organ failure, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.60, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.94) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.97); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82, 0.88) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.93) (P = 0.110). For pancreatic necrosis, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.35, 0.84) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.89, 0.96); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.84, 0.90) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95) (P = 0.001). For ICU admission, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.92) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52, 0.73); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.55, 0.61) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.81, 0.86); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.00) (P = 0.592). The Ranson score was an applicable tool for predicting severity and prognosis of AP patients with reliable diagnostic accuracy in resource and time-limited settings. Future large-scale studies are needed to verify the findings.

A comparison of scoring systems and biomarkers to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis in patients referring to the emergency clinic.

To investigate scoring systems and biomarkers for determining the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). Between January and July 2023, 100 patients with AP diagnosed and treated in the emergency department were included. AP was divided into 2 groups according to severity: mild AP and moderately severe AP (MSAP-SAP), according to the revised Atlanta Classification in 2012. Demographic characteristics, severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, white blood cell count (WBC), hematocrit, red cell distribution width from whole blood taken at admission and 48 hours later, C-reactive protein (CRP) and biochemistry values, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS), and harmless AP score scores were recorded retrospectively. Our variables, which were found to be significant in multiple logistic regression results, were found to increase MSAP-SAP expectation by 4.36-, 7.85-, 6.63 and 5.80 times in the presence of CRP > 47.10, WBC > 13.10, PASS > 0, and necrotizing computed tomography findings, respectively. It was detected that the risk factor which was found significant as a single variable affecting the ICU admission increased the risk of ICU requirement by 28.88 when PASS > 0, by 3.96 when BISAP > 1, and it increased the Atlanta score by 9.93-fold. We found that WBC and CRP values at the time of hospital admission and WBC, CRP, and red cell distribution width values after 48 had the highest accuracy in determining AP disease severity. BISAP, which was found to be significant in determining MSAP-SAP expectations, lost its significance in multiple logistic regression results, and PASS was found to be effective. The PASS is an important score in the clinical evaluation of patients with AP and in determining the need for ICU hospitalization.

To Drain or Not: Drainage Procedures Remain a Central Tenet of Management of Infected Collections in Acute Pancreatitis.

Recent literature advocates for delayed or avoidance of catheter drainage of infected peri-pancreatic collections (IPCs) in acute pancreatitis (AP). This may not be realistic for patients at academic centers, many of whom are critically ill. We retrospectively reviewed 72 patients admitted to our institution from 2016-2021 with AP and IPCs. 34.7% had a Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score ≥3, and 56.9% had a Balthazar score of E. 65.3% were admitted to the ICU, 51.4% experienced respiratory failure, and 47.2% had acute renal failure. In-hospital mortality was 9.7%. Catheter-based drainage alone was the most frequent intervention. Only 8 individuals did not undergo any drainage. Individuals with severe AP complicated by IPCs are critically ill. Avoidance or delay of source control could lead to significant morbidity. Until further research is done on this population, drainage should remain a central tenet of management of IPCs.

Cytokine Dynamics in Acute Pancreatitis: The Quest for Biomarkers from Acute Disease to Disease Resolution.

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of the pancreas with incompletely known pathogenic mechanisms. This study aimed to explore the temporal changes in serum cytokines in patients with AP and to assess the association of these changes with disease severity. Methods: Fifty patients hospitalized with AP were enrolled, and their serum cytokine levels were analyzed at four different time points. A healthy control (HC) group of 30 outpatients was included. Results: AP patients showed increased levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, and monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1 at admission when compared with HC. IL-6, VEGF, and EGF remained elevated 1 month after hospitalization and 6 months after discharge. Conclusions the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and severity classification of the revised Atlanta classification system, IL-6 and VEGF, determined 48 h after hospitalization, were the two cytokines consistently elevated in the most severe patients. Increased levels of IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-alpha at admission and MCP-1 48 h after admission are also related to the length of hospital stay. Conclusions: Our study highlights the role cytokines play in the pathogenesis of AP and can be useful in the development of future drug trials for AP.

Neutrophil-Creatinine Index: A New Prognostic Factor for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis.

Background and Objectives: Determining the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) is the main goal in the early stage of AP. The aim of this study was to compare laboratory parameters and indices, including the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the neutrophil-creatinine index (NCI), at admission in order to predict the severity of AP. Materials and Methods: Data from 421 patients who were admitted with a diagnosis of AP were collected retrospectively. Disease severity was assessed using the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). BISAP was graded as mild and severe, and RAC was graded as mild (MAP), moderately severe (MSAP), and severe (SAP). The laboratory parameters and indices, including the NLR and NCI, were compared. Results: Of the patients, 70 (16.6%) had severe AP according to BISAP; the AP subgroups according to the RAC were as follows: MAP (n = 213), MSAP (n = 158), and SAP (n = 50). The NCI had the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve value (0.862), demonstrating severe disease according to BISAP, with a sensitivity of 78.6% and a specificity of 79.8%. Age (OR:1.046), white blood cell count (WBC) (OR:1.141), hematocrit (OR:1.081), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR:1.040), and NCI (OR:1.076) were independently associated with severe disease, according to the multivariate analysis results, and were determined as components of the newly developed nomogram. The AUROC of the nomogram (0.891) was superior to the AUROCs of all the components of the nomogram except the NCI. Moreover, the NCI was the only parameter to distinguish MSAP from MAP (OR:1.119, 95% CI: 1.015-1.235, p = 0.023) and SAP from MSAP (OR:1.095, 95% CI: 1.031-1.162, p = 0.003). Conclusions: The present study enabled the identification of the neutrophil-creatinine index as a new prognostic tool for the assessment of AP severity at hospital admission.

B Cells and Double-Negative B Cells (CD27-IgD-) Are Related to Acute Pancreatitis Severity.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an increasingly frequent disease in which inflammation plays a crucial role. Fifty patients hospitalized with AP were included and peripheral blood samples were analyzed for B and T cell subpopulations at the time of hospitalization and 48 h after diagnosis. The Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and length of hospital stay were also recorded. A healthy control (HC) group of 15 outpatients was included. AP patients showed higher neutrophil/lymphocyte (N/L) ratios and higher percentages of B cells than the HC group. The total B cell percentages were higher in patients with moderate/severe AP than in patients with mild AP. The percentages of B cells as well as the percentages of the CD27-IgD- B cell subset decreased from admission to 48 h after admission. The patients with higher BISAP scores showed lower percentages of peripheral lymphocytes but higher percentages of CD27-IgD- B cells. Higher BISAP scores, N/L ratios, and peripheral blood B cell levels emerged as predictors of hospital stay length in AP patients. Our findings underscore the importance of early markers for disease severity. Additionally, the N/L ratio along with the BISAP score and circulating B cell levels form a robust predictive model for hospital stay duration of AP patients.

Interleukin-6 Concentration in Early Assessment of Severity and Prediction of Outcome among Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Cohort Study

Introduction: Various inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive Protein (CRP), Interleukin (IL), and Tumour Necrosis Factor (TNF), are used as indicators of illness severity in acute pancreatitis. Concentrations of inflammatory mediators are correlated to the severity of the disease. If detected before the occurrence of multiple organ dysfunction, early initiation of aggressive therapy might prevent its development. IL-6, released by macrophages in response to tissue injury, peaks 24 hours after the onset of inflammation and can be used to predict early disease severity. The Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring system was used to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis. Aim: To study the association of IL-6 levels with the BISAP in predicting the outcome. Materials and Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted in the Department of General Surgery at Government Medical College, Kottayam, Kerala, India. The duration of the study was 12 months, from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019. The study was done on patients of either gender, aged between 18 and 60 years, with clinical features suggestive of acute pancreatitis. After obtaining informed consent, a 4 mL venous blood sample was taken, and serum amylase and serum lipase levels were estimated. If serum amylase/lipase levels were three times above the normal range, a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis was made according to revised Atlanta criteria. Meanwhile, the BISAP score was calculated. After reaching a sample size of 77 for the present study, IL-6 estimation was performed using an Enzyme-linked Immunoassay (ELISA) kit. At the end of the study, IL-6 concentration was compared with the BISAP score to assess severe acute pancreatitis. The data entered in Microsoft Excel were analysed using the Chi-square test and Fisher’s-exact test. Results: The mean age of the study participants was 30 years, with 37 patients (48%) between the ages of 20-40 years and 40 patients (52%) between the ages of 40-60 years. Out of the 77 study subjects, 71 were males and six were females. There was a significant association between Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission with persistent organ failure, which indicates severe acute pancreatitis. Conclusion: In the present study, no significant association was found between IL-6 and the BISAP score in the early assessment and prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis.

Predictive and Prognostic Potentials of Lymphocyte-C-Reactive Protein Ratio Upon Hospitalization in Adult Patients with Acute Pancreatitis.

In this study, our objective was to investigate the potential utility of lymphocyte-C-reactive protein ratio (LCR) as a predictor of disease progression and a screening tool for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in adult patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). We included a total of 217 adult patients with AP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University between July 2019 and June 2022. These patients were categorized into three groups: mild AP (MAP), moderately severe AP (MSAP), and severe AP (SAP), based on the presence and duration of organ dysfunction. Various demographic and clinical data were collected and compared among different disease severity groups. Height, diabetes, lymphocyte count (LYMPH), lymphocyte percentage (LYM%), platelet count (PLT), D-Dimer, albumin (ALB), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (SCr), glucose (GLU), calcium ion (Ca2+), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), hospitalization duration, ICU admission, need for BP, LCR, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, bedside index for severity in AP (BISAP) score, and modified Marshall score showed significant differences across different disease severity groups upon hospitalization. Notably, there were significant differences in LCR between the MAP group and the MSAP and SAP combined group, and the MAP and MSAP combined group and the SAP group, and adult AP patients with ICU admission and those without ICU admission upon hospitalization. In summary, LCR upon hospitalization can be utilized as a simple and reliable predictor of disease progression and a screening tool for ICU admission in adult patients with AP.

Construction of prediction model of severe acute pancreatitis based on serum soluble T cell immunogloblulin and mucin domain-containing protein 3

To investigate the predictive value of the model based on soluble T cell immunogloblulin and mucin domain-containing protein 3 (sTIM3) for the progression of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The AP patients admitted to Changzhou First People's Hospital and Changzhou Second People's Hospital from June 1, 2020 to June 30, 2022 were enrolled. Mild AP (MAP) and moderately severe AP (MSAP) patients were classified as non-SAP group, and SAP patients were classified as SAP group according to the progression of AP patients during hospitalization. The basic data, blood biological indicators, serum sTIM3 level, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI) score within 48 hours of admission, and prognosis indicators were collected. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the risk factors of the progression of SAP in patients with AP during hospitalization. Based on the results of multivariate analysis and the best parameters selected based on the minimal Akaike information criterion (AIC), the SAP prediction model based on sTIM3 was constructed. The receive operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted to analyze the predictive efficacy of the model. A total of 99 AP patients were enrolled, 80 patients in the non-SAP group and 19 patients in the SAP group. Compared with the non-SAP group, body mass index (BMI), drinking history ratio, heart rate (HR), respiration rate (RR), white blood cell count (WBC), red blood cell count (RBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), serum creatinine (SCr), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), sTIM3, BISAP score, APACHE II score and MCTSI score were significantly increased, and pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2), direct bilirubin (DBil) and IL-10 were significantly decreased. The length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay and total length of hospital stay of patients in the SAP group were significantly longer than those in the non-SAP group [length of ICU stay (days): 1.0 (0, 1.5) vs. 0 (0, 0), total length of hospital stay (days): 17.11±9.39 vs. 8.40±3.08, both P < 0.01]. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that HR [odds ratio (OR) = 1.059, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.010-1.110, P = 0.017], DBil (OR = 0.981, 95%CI was 0.950-0.997, P = 0.043), and sTIM3 (OR = 1.002, 95%CI was 1.001-1.003, P = 0.027) were independent risk factors for predicting the progression of SAP in patients with AP, and the SAP prediction model based on sTIM3 was constructed: Logit(P) = -14.602+0.187×BMI+0.057×HR+0.006×CRP-0.020×DBil+0.002×sTIM3. ROC curve analysis showed that among the aforementioned single factor quantitative indicators, IL-6 was the most effective in predicting the progression of AP patients to SAP during hospitalization, but the predictive performance of prediction model based on the sTIM3 was significantly better than IL-6 [area under the ROC curve (AUC) and 95%CI: 0.957 (0.913-1.000) vs. 0.902 (0.845-0.958), P < 0.05]. The model based on serum sTIM3 demonstrated good predictive value for the progression of SAP in patients with AP.

Red cell distribution width: A predictor of the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis.

Compared with patients with other causes of acute pancreatitis, those with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) are more likely to develop persistent organ failure (POF). Therefore, recognizing the individuals at risk of developing POF early in the HTG-AP process is a vital for improving outcomes. Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), a simple parameter that is obtained 24 h after admission, is an ideal index to predict HTG-AP severity; however, the suboptimal sensitivity limits its clinical application. Hence, current clinical scoring systems and biochemical parameters are not sufficient for predicting HTG-AP severity. To elucidate the early predictive value of red cell distribution width (RDW) for POF in HTG-AP. In total, 102 patients with HTG-AP were retrospectively enrolled. Demographic and clinical data, including RDW, were collected from all patients on admission. Based on the Revised Atlanta Classification, 37 (33%) of 102 patients with HTG-AP were diagnosed with POF. On admission, RDW was significantly higher in patients with HTG-AP and POF than in those without POF (14.4% vs 12.5%, P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated a good discriminative power of RDW for POF with a cutoff of 13.1%, where the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were 0.85, 82.4%, and 77.9%, respectively. When the RDW was ≥ 13.1% and one point was added to the original BISAP to obtain a new BISAP score, we achieved a higher AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.89, 91.2%, and 67.6%, respectively. RDW is a promising predictor of POF in patients with HTG-AP, and the addition of RDW can promote the sensitivity of BISAP.

Establishment and validation of early prediction model for hypertriglyceridemic severe acute pancreatitis

BackgroundThe prevalence of hypertriglyceridaemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) is increasing due to improvements in living standards and dietary changes. However, currently, there is no clinical multifactor scoring system specific to HTG-AP. This study aimed to screen the predictors of HTG-SAP and combine several indicators to establish and validate a visual model for the early prediction of HTG-SAP.MethodsThe clinical data of 266 patients with HTG-SAP were analysed. Patients were classified into severe (N = 42) and non-severe (N = 224) groups according to the Atlanta classification criteria. Several statistical analyses, including one-way analysis, least absolute shrinkage with selection operator (LASSO) regression model, and binary logistic regression analysis, were used to evaluate the data.ResultsThe univariate analysis showed that several factors showed no statistically significant differences, including the number of episodes of pancreatitis, abdominal pain score, and several blood diagnostic markers, such as lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), serum calcium (Ca2+), C-reactive protein (CRP), and the incidence of pleural effusion, between the two groups (P < 0.000). LASSO regression analysis identified six candidate predictors: CRP, LDH, Ca2+, procalcitonin (PCT), ascites, and Balthazar computed tomography grade. Binary logistic regression multivariate analysis showed that CRP, LDH, Ca2+, and ascites were independent predictors of HTG-SAP, and the area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.886, 0.893, 0.872, and 0.850, respectively. The AUC of the newly established HTG-SAP model was 0.960 (95% confidence interval: 0.936–0.983), which was higher than that of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score, modified CT severity index, Ranson score, and Japanese severity score (JSS) CT grade (AUC: 0.794, 0.796, 0.894 and 0.764, respectively). The differences were significant (P < 0.01), except for the JSS prognostic indicators (P = 0.130). The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed that the predictive results of the model were highly consistent with the actual situation (P > 0.05). The decision curve analysis plot suggested that clinical intervention can benefit patients when the model predicts that they are at risk for developing HTG-SAP.ConclusionsCRP, LDH, Ca2+, and ascites are independent predictors of HTG-SAP. The prediction model constructed based on these indicators has a high accuracy, sensitivity, consistency, and practicability in predicting HTG-SAP.

Real-time artificial intelligence predicts adverse outcomes in acute pancreatitis in the emergency department: Comparison with clinical decision rule.

Artificial intelligence (AI) prediction is increasingly used for decision making in health care, but its application for adverse outcomes in emergency department (ED) patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) is not well understood. This study aimed to clarify this aspect. Data from 8274 ED patients with AP in three hospitals from 2009 to 2018 were analyzed. Demographic data, comorbidities, laboratory results, and adverse outcomes were included. Six algorithms were evaluated, and the one with the highest area under the curve (AUC) was implemented into the hospital information system (HIS) for real-time prediction. Predictive accuracy was compared between the AI model and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). The mean ± SD age was 56.1 ± 16.7 years, with 67.7% being male. The AI model was successfully implemented in the HIS, with Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) showing the highest AUC for sepsis (AUC 0.961) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (AUC 0.973), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) showing the highest AUC for mortality (AUC 0.975). Compared to BISAP, the AI model had superior AUC for sepsis (BISAP 0.785), ICU admission (BISAP 0.778), and mortality (BISAP 0.817). The first real-time AI prediction model implemented in the HIS for predicting adverse outcomes in ED patients with AP shows favorable initial results. However, further external validation is needed to ensure its reliability and accuracy.

Clinical value of BISAP score combined with CRP and NLR in evaluating the severity of acute pancreatitis.

To investigate the clinical value of bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score combined with serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting the severity of early acute pancreatitis. A total of 113 patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University from September 2019 to September 2022 were retrospectively collected and divided into mild acute pancreatitis group (51 cases), moderately severe acute pancreatitis group (32 cases) and severe acute pancreatitis group (30 cases) according to the severity of the disease. The general clinical data, laboratory test indicators, and imaging data within 72 hours were collected and compared among the 3 groups. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of BISAP score, BISAP combined with CRP, BISAP combined with NLR, and BISAP combined with CRP and NLR in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis were analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve. 1. BISAP score (0.9608 ± 0.1119, 1.688 ± 0.1225, 2.6 ± 0.1135), CRP (74.77 ± 8.336, 142.9 ± 11.44, 187.6 ± 13.04), and NLR (8.063 ± 0.7781, 13.69 ± 1.023, 18.06 ± 1.685) increased sequentially in mild acute pancreatitis group, moderately severe acute pancreatitis group, and severe acute pancreatitis group, and the differences in BISAP score, CRP and NLR among the 3 groups were statistically significant (P < .05). BISAP score was positively correlated with CRP and NLR (R = 0.5062, 0.5247, P < .05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of BISAP score, CRP, NLR, BISAP combined with NLR, and BISAP combined with CRP in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis were 0.885, 0.814, 0.714, 0.953, respectively. The specificity and sensitivity of combined diagnosis were higher than those of BISAP score or CRP and NLR alone. BISAP score combined with CRP and NLR can effectively evaluate the severity of acute pancreatitis, and their combination has a higher predictive value for early severity assessment.

The laboratory parameters and scoring systems used to predict clinical outcomes in geriatric patients with acute pancreatitis.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the leading cause of hospital admissions among gastrointestinal system disorders, and it can resolve independently or lead to life-threatening multiple organ failure. Acute pancreatitis can have a more severe clinical presentation in geriatric patients as compared to younger patients. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients aged 65 and older who presented to the emergency department with a diagnosis of AP and assessed their impact on hospital stay, in-hospital mortality, and cost. We reviewed the records of patients aged 65 and older who presented to the emergency department and had lipase levels measured as exceeding three times the upper limit of the reference range during the evaluation. We recorded these patients' vital signs, medical histories, laboratory values, and etiologies. Using these data, we calculated the patients' clinical scores. We recorded data on 218 patients who met the inclusion criteria. The median age of the patients was 76 (65-113). Of these, 70.6% were females, 54.6% had gallstones, 90.4% (n = 197) were admitted to the general ward from the emergency department, and 7.3% (n = 16) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). In-hospital mortality was 5.63% (n = 12). The Ranson, Glasgow Severity Score (GSS), and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores, as well as lactate, procalcitonin, and the lymphocyte-albumin ratio, were independent predictors of ICU admission and mortality. The early diagnosis of AP is essential. When a severe disease course is likely, initiating treatment promptly becomes crucial, especially in patients aged 65 and older. This approach can lead to significant reductions in both complication rates and treatment costs.

Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment.

Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking. To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP. Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned. 43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity. The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.

Role of Red Cell Distribution Width and Platelet Count Ratio to Predict the Severity and Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis

Clinical course of acute pancreatitis (AP) varies widely, its clinical features exhibit very low sensitivity for the prediction of severity of disease which is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Several single or multi parameter scoring systems have been described to evaluate the severity of AP. But sometimes, it is not clinically practicable to use these scoring systems for evaluation. This study aimed to find out the Role of Red Cell Distribution Width and Platelet Count Ratio (RPR) to predict the Severity and Outcome in AP. This prospective longitudinal study was carried out from July 2019 to July 2020, at the in-patient department of Gastrointestinal, Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disorders, BIRDEM General Hospital, Dhaka. Total 100 patients with AP were included for this study according to selection criteria. An informed written consent was taken from all the participants. Detail history was taken and thorough physical examination was done along with relevant laboratory investigations. Ranson's score, Modified Glasgow score, Bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), red cell distribution width and platelet count ratio (RPR) were calculated. All data were recorded and analyzed by Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) 23. In this study 44% patients were more than 60 years with a mean age of 51.34 (±15.45) year. More than two thirds patients were (67%) male. In mild acute pancreatitis mean value of Ranson's score, BISAP score and modified Glasgow score was 0.79 (±0.14), 0.90 (±0.1) and 0.80 (±0.14) and 3.29 (±1.16), 1.77 (±0.46) ,2.74 (±0.69) in moderate to severe pancreatitis respectively with statistically difference were found in both severities (p&lt;.05). The patients with mild pancreatitis and the patients with moderate to severe pancreatitis had significant difference (p&lt;.05) between mean RDW (14.68±1.59% versus 15.51±3.27%), mean RPR (0.043±0.06 versus .062±.002) and platelet count (340.9±841.6 cells/mm3 Versus 236.4±825.4 cells/mm3). The ROC analysis of RPR in predicting severity of pancreatitis showed a cut-off value of ≥ 0.056 and diagnostic accuracy test showed sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy as 63.6%, 82.2%, 81.4%, 64.9% and 72% respectively. Mean Ranson's score, BISAP score and Modified Glasgow score was 2.09 (±1.45), 1.34 (±0.39) and 1.83 (±1.08) in survived patients and 5.50 (±0.70), 4 and 3.50 (±0.70) in dead patients with significant difference between both groups (p&lt;.05). Mean RDW (15.08±2.67% Vs 17.85±0.21%), mean platelet count (284.43±143×109/L Vs 236.4± 825.4×109/L) and mean RPR (0.053±0.02 Vs 0.094± 0.005) was also significant between survived and dead patients (p&lt;.05). The ROC analysis of RPR in predicting outcome showed cut-off value of ≥ 0.06 and diagnostic accuracy test showed sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy as 100%, 63.27%, 5.26%, 100% and 64% respectively. Red cell distribution width and platelet count ratio (RPR) can be used as a novel biomarker to predict the severity and mortality of acute pancreatitis in very early stage. Bangladesh Med J. 2021 Sept; 51(1): 18-24

Construction and validation of machine learning models for sepsis prediction in patients with acute pancreatitis

BackgroundThis study aimed to construct predictive models for the risk of sepsis in patients with Acute pancreatitis (AP) using machine learning methods and compared optimal one with the logistic regression (LR) model and scoring systems.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database between 2001 and 2012 and the MIMIC IV database between 2008 and 2019. Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets (8:2). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression plus 5-fold cross-validation were used to screen and confirm the predictive factors. Based on the selected predictive factors, 6 machine learning models were constructed, including support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), LR, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and adaptive enhancement algorithm (AdaBoost). The models and scoring systems were evaluated and compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy, and the area under the curve (AUC).ResultsA total of 1, 672 patients were eligible for participation. In the training set, 261 AP patients (19.51%) were diagnosed with sepsis. The predictive factors for the risk of sepsis in AP patients included age, insurance, vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, SpO2, platelet, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), International Normalized Ratio (INR), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The AUC of the GBDT model for sepsis prediction in the AP patients in the testing set was 0.985. The GBDT model showed better performance in sepsis prediction than the LR, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, quick-SOFA (qSOFA), and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II).ConclusionThe present findings suggest that compared to the classical LR model and SOFA, qSOFA, SAPS II, SIRS, and BISAP scores, the machine learning model-GBDT model had a better performance in predicting sepsis in the AP patients, which is a useful tool for early identification of high-risk patients and timely clinical interventions.

Potential value of red blood cell distribution width in predicting in-hospital mortality in intensive care US population with acute pancreatitis: a propensity score matching analysis

The association between red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) is inconclusive. We extracted the baseline data, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and in-hospital prognosis of intensive care patients with AP from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. Performing binary logistic regression analysis to determine whether RDW is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality. By drawing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and comparing the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) to determine the predictive value of RDW for in-hospital mortality, and by conducting survival analysis to evaluate the impact of RDW on survival time in hospital. Before and after the propensity score matching (PSM) analysis, RDW was always a risk factor for in-hospital mortality in patients with AP. The AUC of RDW was comparable to BISAP, while the AUCs of combining RDW and BISAP or SOFA were greater than that of BISAP or SOFA alone. The median survival time of the high-RDW group (RDW > 15.37%, before PSM; RDW > 15.35%, after PSM) was shorter than that of the low-RDW group. Compared with the low-RDW group, the hazard ratios of the high-RDW group were 3.0708 (before PSM) and 1.4197 (after PSM). RDW is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in patients with AP. The predictive value of RDW for in-hospital mortality of patients with AP is comparable to BISAP, and the combination of RDW and BISAP or SOFA scoring system can improve the predictive performance to a certain extent.

A Comparative Study of Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (Apache II) Score in Assessing the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Background: Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal disorder with substantial burden on the healthcare system. Since 1974, various scores have been developed using clinical and radiological parameters to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis. BISAP and APACHE II score have been developed for evaluation and to assess the severity of patients with acute pancreatitis. To evaluate BISAP and APACHE II score of patients with acute pancreatitis, compare sensitivity and specificity of BISAP and APACHE II score and to see predictive accuracy of BISAP and APACHE II score to analyse severity in acute pancreatitis. Material &amp; Methods: The study was conducted in the department of General Surgery, GGS Medical College and Hospital, Faridkot, on 40 diagnosed patients of acute pancreatitis. Results: The ROC analysis for organ failure showed BISAP score has AUC of 0.927, sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 75%, PPV of 30%, NPV 100% and diagnostic accuracy of 77.5%; whereas APACHE II score has AUC 0.983, sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 94.4%, PPV of 66.6%, NPV of 100% and diagnostic accuracy of 95%. The ROC analysis for pancreatic necrosis showed BISAP score has AUC of 0.882, sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 75%, PPV of 30.7%, NPV 100% and diagnostic accuracy of 77.5%; whereas APACHE II score has AUC 0.924, sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 77.7%, PPV of 33.3%, NPV of 100% and diagnostic accuracy of 80%. The ROC analysis for prediction of mortality has AUC (0.730, 0.735), sensitivity (66.6, 66.6%), specificity (73.53%, 79.41%), PPV (30.7%,33.6%), NPV(92.59%,93.1%)and diagnostic accuracy(72.5%, 77.5%), for BISAP and APACHEII scores, respectively. Conclusion: BISAP score was found to have sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and diagnostic accuracy as close to APACHE II score in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis. Even though APACHE II score is stronger to predict organ failure than BISAP but BISAP being simple, easy to calculate, economical and reliable can be used as preliminary tool to stratify patients and to manage accordingly for better outcome. Hence, using BISAP score, patients having probability of progressing to severe disease can be assessed early.

Decreased HDL-C Levels as a Predictor of Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is reported as a biomarker of systemic inflammation and multi-organ failure (MOF), which has been rarely investigated in acute pancreatitis (AP), a frequent condition in the emergency department (ED). The objective was to study the predictive capacity of the decrease in HDL-C to the progression of MOF in AP in the ED; analyzing 114 patients with AP for one year in a longitudinal and prospective study, AP severity was obtained by the Atlanta classification, in relation to modified Marshall and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores, and clinical and laboratory parameters in a 48 h hospital stay. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and define optimal cut-off points. It was found that AP was classified as severe in 24.5%, mainly for biliary etiology (78.9%) and female sex (73.6%). As a biomarker, HDL-C decreased from 31.6 to 29.5 mg/dL in a 48 h stay (p < 0.001), correlating negatively with the increase in severity index > 2 and the modified Marshall (p < 0.032) and BISAP (p < 0.009) scores, finding an area under the ROC curve with a predictive capacity of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.614-0.898; p < 0.004) and a cut-off point of 28.5 mg/dL (sensitivity: 79%, specificity: 78%), demonstrating that the decrease in HDL-C levels serves as a useful indicator with a predictive capacity for MOF in mild to severe AP, during a 48 h hospital stay in the ED.