Bayesian Random-effects Model Research Articles

The anterior and medial open approaches yield superior outcomes compared to the lateral and posterior open approaches in supracondylar humerus fractures in children: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

This study aimed to perform a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) to examine which open approach is superior in terms of outcomes and complications in the treatment of pediatric supracondylar humerus fractures. MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Clinicaltrials.gov, and Cochrane Library were searched from database inception to December 2022 and screened for relevant studies. Data were collected regarding patient demographics, Flynn's functional and cosmetic outcomes, and complications. Unsatisfactory Flynn's and complications were considered negative events. Comparisons of outcomes from aggregate data from each surgical approach using relative risk (RR) with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were performed. The NMA of overall negative events was conducted using a Bayesian hierarchical random-effects model analysis. A total of 26 studies involving 1461 patients were included; 459 (31.4%) patients underwent a closed reduction and percutaneous pinning (CRPP), 84 (5.7%) an anterior approach, 240 (16.4%) a medial, 220 (15%) a lateral, and 458 (31.3%) a posterior. The lateral and posterior approaches demonstrate a higher risk of negative event in the NMA compared to CRPP [RR = 2 (1.03, 3.85); RR = 2.63 (1.96, 3.57), respectively], anterior approach [RR = 3.33 (1.11, 10); RR = 4.35 (1.49, 12.5), respectively], and medial approach [RR = 1.82 (1.16, 2.86); RR = 2.38 (1.23, 4.76), respectively]. The medial approach resulted in a similar negative event rate compared to the anterior [RR = 1.82 (0.58, 5.88)]. The anterior and medial open approaches yield superior functional and cosmetic outcomes with fewer complications compared to the lateral and posterior.

A Bayesian bias-adjusted random-effects model for synthesizing evidence from randomized controlled trials and nonrandomized studies of interventions.

An important consideration when combining RCTs and NRSIs is how to address their potential biases in the pooled estimates. This study aimed to propose a Bayesian bias-adjusted random effects model for the synthesis of evidence from RCTs and NRSIs. We present a Bayesian bias-adjusted random effects model based on power prior method, which combines the likelihood contribution of the NRSIs, raised to the power parameter of alpha, with the likelihood of the RCT data, modeled with an additive bias. The method was illustrated using a meta-analysis on the association between low-dose methotrexate exposure and melanoma. We also combined RCTs and NRSIs using the naïve data synthesis. The results including only RCTs has a posterior median and 95% credible interval (CrI) of 1.18 (0.31-4.04), the posterior probability of any harm (>1.0) and a meaningful association (>1.15) were 0.61 and 0.52, respectively. The posterior median and 95% CrI based on the naïve data synthesis resulted in 1.17 (0.96-1.47), and the posterior probability of any harm and a meaningful association were 0.96 and 0.60, respectively. For the Bayesian bias-adjusted analysis, the median OR was 1.16 (95% CrI: 0.83-1.71), and the posterior probabilities of any and a meaningful clinical association were 0.88 and 0.53, respectively. The results indicated that integrating NRSIs into meta-analysis could increase the certainty of the body of evidence. However, directly combining RCTs and NRSIs in the same meta-analysis without distinction may lead to misleading conclusions.

Microfractures, autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis, osteochondral autograft transplantation and autologous chondrocyte implantation for knee chondral defects: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Despite the publication of several randomized controlled trials (RCTs), it is not clear which technique for the treatment of focal chondral and osteochondral defects of the knee grants the best clinical outcome. The aim of this network meta-analysis (NMA) was to compare the efficacy and safety of microfractures (MF), autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI), autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis (AMIC), osteochondral autograft transplantation (OCT) at short (< 1 year), intermediate (1-5 years) and long-term (> 5 years). We carried out an NMA with Bayesian random-effect model, according to PRISMA guidelines. The search was performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, CENTRAL, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, clinicaltrials.gov, WHO ICTRP, from inception to November 2022. The eligibilities were randomized controlled trials on patients with knee chondral and osteochondral defects, undergoing microfractures, OCT, AMIC, ACI, without restrictions for prior or concomitant surgery on ligaments, menisci or limb alignment, prior surgery for fixation or ablation of osteochondritis dissecans fragments, and prior cartilage procedures as microfractures, drilling, abrasion, or debridement. Nineteen RCTs were included. No difference among treatments was shown in the pooled comparison of patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) at any timepoint. Safety data were not available for all trials due to the heterogeneity of reporting, but chondrospheres seemed to have lower failure and reoperation rates. This NMA showed no difference for PROMs with any technique. The lower failure and reoperation rates with chondrospheres must be interpreted with caution since adverse event data was heterogenous among trials. The standardization of the efficacy and safety outcome measures for future trials on knee cartilage repair and regeneration is necessary.

Comparative effectiveness of antiplatelet therapies for saphenous venous graft occlusion and cardiovascular outcomes: a network meta-analysis.

The ideal antiplatelet therapy to maintain graft patency after coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) remains controversial. This review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) aims to compare aspirin monotherapy, ticagrelor monotherapy, dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin and ticagrelor (Asp+Tica) or with aspirin and clopidogrel (Asp+Clopi) to evaluate differences in post-CABG saphenous vein graft (SVG) occlusion, internal mammary artery (IMA) occlusion, myocardial infarction (MI), bleeding, and all-cause mortality (ACM) rates. The literature review was conducted on several electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central, from inception to August 10, 2022. Data was extracted using a predefined proforma. A Bayesian random-effects model was used for calculating point effect estimates (odds ratio and standard deviation). Quality assessment was done using the Cochrane RoB-2 tool. Ten RCTs comprising 2139 patients taking anti-platelets post-CABG were included. For preventing SVG occlusion, Asp+Tica showed the lowest mean AR of 0.144±0.068. Asp+Tica also showed a trend toward lesser postoperative MI risk and lower ACM rates, with a mean AR of 0.040±0.053 and 0.018±0.029, respectively. For maintaining IMA graft patency, Asp+Clopi showed the lowest mean AR of 0.092±0.053. Ticagrelor had the lowest mean AR of 0.049±0.075, with Asp+Tica showing a similar mean AR of 0.049±0.045 for postoperative major bleeding risk. Our analysis demonstrates that Asp+Tica can be the ideal therapy for patients undergoing CABG using SVG as it decreases the risk of post-CABG SVG occlusion and is not associated with a significantly higher risk for major bleeding.

Effect of different hypoglycemic drugs and insulin on the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in people with diabetes: a network meta-analysis

ObjectiveDiabetes is considered a significant risk factor for the development of atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL). However, there is still insufficient evidence to determine the varying effects of different hypoglycemic drugs (HDs) on the incidence of new-onset AF/AFL in diabetic patients. To address this gap, we conducted a network meta-analysis to investigate whether various HDs have different effects on the risk of new-onset AF/AFL compared with insulin.MethodWe conducted a comprehensive search in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science to identify all clinical trials investigating the association between various HDs or insulin and incident AF/AFL up until April 1, 2024. Bayesian random-effects model was used for network meta-analysis, and the results were expressed as relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).ResultAfter searching 2070 articles, a total of 12 studies (2,349,683 patients) were included in the network meta-analysis. The treatment regimen comprised insulin and 8 HDs hypoglycemic drugs, which are sodium-dependent glucose transporters 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4i), metformin (Met), sulfonylureas (SU), non-sulfonylureas (nSU), thiazolidinedione (TZD) and α-glycosidase inhibitors (AGI). The use of SGLT2i [RR 0.23, 95%CI (0.11, 0.49)], GLP-1RA [RR 0.28, 95%CI (0.13, 0.57)], and DPP4i [RR 0.34, 95%CI (0.17, 0.67)] demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing the incidence of new-onset AF/AFL when compared to insulin. When HDs were compared in pairs, SGLT2i is more effective than Met [RR 0.35, 95% CI (0.19, 0.62)], SU (RR 0.27, 95% CI (0.14, 0.51)], nSU [RR 0.28, 95% CI (0.08, 0.95)], TZD [RR 0.34, 95% CI (0.17, 0.7)], GLP-1RA is more effective Met [RR 0.42, 95% CI (0.25, 0.71)], SU (RR 0.33, 95% CI (0.18, 0.6)], TZD [RR 0.41, 95% CI (0.21, 0.82)], while Met[RR 1.98, 95% CI (1.23, 3.23)], SU [RR 2.54, 95% CI (1.46, 4.43)], TZD [RR 2.01, 95% CI (1.05, 3.79)] was not as effective as DPP4i.ConclusionSGLT-2i, GLP-1RA, and DPP4i showed a superior efficacy in reducing the risk of new-onset AF/AFL compared to insulin therapy.

Comparative Efficacy of Neoadjuvant Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy versus Conventional Comparator Treatments in Resectable Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Literature Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

This study aimed to estimate the relative efficacy of neoadjuvant nivolumab in combination with chemotherapy (neoNIVO + CT) compared to relevant treatments amongst resectable non-metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (rNSCLC) patients. Treatment comparisons were based on a network meta-analysis (NMA) using randomized clinical trial data identified via systematic literature review (SLR). The outcomes of interest were event-free survival (EFS) and pathological complete response (pCR). NeoNIVO + CT was compared to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (neoCT), neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neoCRT), adjuvant chemotherapy (adjCT), and surgery alone (S). Due to the potential for effect modification by stage, all-stage and stage-specific networks were considered. Fixed-effect (FE) and random-effects Bayesian NMA models were run (EFS = hazard ratios [HR]; pCR = odds ratios [OR]; 95% credible intervals [CrI]). Sixty-one RCTs were identified (base case = 9 RCTs [n = 1978 patients]). In the all-stages FE model, neoNIVO + CT had statistically significant EFS improvements relative to neoCT (HR = 0.68 [95% CrI: 0.49, 0.94]), S (0.59 [0.42, 0.82]), adjCT (0.66 [0.45, 0.96]), but not relative to neoCRT (HR = 0.77 [0.52, 1.16]). NeoNIVO + CT (5 RCTs) had statistically significant higher odds of pCR relative to neoCT (OR = 12.53 [5.60, 33.82]) and neoCRT (7.15 [2.31, 24.34]). Stage-specific model findings were consistent. This NMA signals improved EFS and/or pCR of neoNIVO + CT relative to comparators among patients with rNSCLC.

Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation versus standard treatment for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a Bayesian meta-analysis

BackgroundThe outcomes of several randomized trials on extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) in patients with refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were examined using frequentist methods, resulting in a dichotomous interpretation of results based on p-values rather than in the probability of clinically relevant treatment effects. To determine such a probability of a clinically relevant ECPR-based treatment effect on neurological outcomes, the authors of these trials performed a Bayesian meta-analysis of the totality of randomized ECPR evidence.MethodsA systematic search was applied to three electronic databases. Randomized trials that compared ECPR-based treatment with conventional CPR for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were included. The study was preregistered in INPLASY (INPLASY2023120060). The primary Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis estimated the difference in 6-month neurologically favorable survival in patients with all rhythms, and a secondary analysis assessed this difference in patients with shockable rhythms (Bayesian hierarchical random-effects model). Primary Bayesian analyses were performed under vague priors. Outcomes were formulated as estimated median relative risks, mean absolute risk differences, and numbers needed to treat with corresponding 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The posterior probabilities of various clinically relevant absolute risk difference thresholds were estimated.ResultsThree randomized trials were included in the analysis (ECPR, n = 209 patients; conventional CPR, n = 211 patients). The estimated median relative risk of ECPR for 6-month neurologically favorable survival was 1.47 (95%CrI 0.73–3.32) with a mean absolute risk difference of 8.7% (− 5.0; 42.7%) in patients with all rhythms, and the median relative risk was 1.54 (95%CrI 0.79–3.71) with a mean absolute risk difference of 10.8% (95%CrI − 4.2; 73.9%) in patients with shockable rhythms. The posterior probabilities of an absolute risk difference > 0% and > 5% were 91.0% and 71.1% in patients with all rhythms and 92.4% and 75.8% in patients with shockable rhythms, respectively.ConclusionThe current Bayesian meta-analysis found a 71.1% and 75.8% posterior probability of a clinically relevant ECPR-based treatment effect on 6-month neurologically favorable survival in patients with all rhythms and shockable rhythms. These results must be interpreted within the context of the reported credible intervals and varying designs of the randomized trials.RegistrationINPLASY (INPLASY2023120060, December 14th, 2023, https://doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2023.12.0060).

A model for accurate quantification of CRISPR effects in pooled FACS screens.

CRISPR screens are powerful tools to identify key genes that underlie biological processes. One important type of screen uses fluorescence activated cell sorting (FACS) to sort perturbed cells into bins based on the expression level of marker genes, followed by guide RNA (gRNA) sequencing. Analysis of these data presents several statistical challenges due to multiple factors including the discrete nature of the bins and typically small numbers of replicate experiments. To address these challenges, we developed a robust and powerful Bayesian random effects model and software package called Waterbear. Furthermore, we used Waterbear to explore how various experimental design parameters affect statistical power to establish principled guidelines for future screens. Finally, we experimentally validated our experimental design model findings that, when using Waterbear for analysis, high power is maintained even at low cell coverage and a high multiplicity of infection. We anticipate that Waterbear will be of broad utility for analyzing FACS-based CRISPR screens.

REVEALS—a longitudinal cohort study of multifaceted respiratory assessment in ALS

Objective To systematically assess decline in respiratory measures in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and to examine the impact of sex, disease onset type and baseline morbidity on progression. Methods The REVEALS study (Registry of Endpoints and Validated Experiences in ALS) was conducted between April 2018 and February 2021 in six European ALS centers. Slow and forced vital capacity (S/FVC), sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP), peak cough flow, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale-revised (ALSFRS-R), and respiratory morbidity were collected. Data were analyzed using a Bayesian multiple outcomes random effects model. Results Two hundred and eighty participants had a median of three assessments (IQR 2.0, 5.0) over a median of 8 months (IQR 2.3, 14.1). There were 974 data collection timepoints. Differences in respiratory measures and rates of decline between disease-onset and sex subgroups were identified. Females had lower scores in all respiratory measures and females with bulbar onset ALS had faster decline compared with other sub-groups. These differences were not detected by the ALSFRS-r respiratory subscale. Dyspnea, orthopnea, and a higher King’s stage at baseline were associated with lower respiratory scores throughout follow-up, while having a regular productive cough at baseline was associated with lower peak cough flow scores. Conclusion Respiratory function declines more quickly in females with ALS compared with males when measured by FVC, SVC, SNIP, or PCF, but not the ALSFRS-R respiratory sub-score. Higher baseline King’s staging and the presence of clinical respiratory symptoms at baseline were associated with worse respiratory function. The ALSFRS-R respiratory sub-score is poorly correlated with objective respiratory measurements.

Clinical efficacy of multiple intra-articular injection for hip osteoarthritis.

Intra-articular (IA) injection may be used when treating hip osteoarthritis (OA). Common injections include steroids, hyaluronic acid (HA), local anaesthetic, and platelet-rich plasma (PRP). Network meta-analysis allows for comparisons between two or more treatment groups and uses direct and indirect comparisons between interventions. This network meta-analysis aims to compare the efficacy of various IA injections used in the management of hip OA with a follow-up of up to six months. This systematic review and network meta-analysis used a Bayesian random-effects model to evaluate the direct and indirect comparisons among all treatment options. PubMed, Web of Science, Clinicaltrial.gov, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to February 2023. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) which evaluate the efficacy of HA, PRP, local anaesthetic, steroid, steroid+anaesthetic, HA+PRP, and physiological saline injection as a placebo, for patients with hip OA were included. In this meta-analysis of 16 RCTs with a total of 1,735 participants, steroid injection was found to be significantly more effective than placebo injection on reported pain at three months, but no significant difference was observed at six months. Furthermore, steroid injection was considerably more effective than placebo injection for functional outcomes at three months, while the combination of HA+PRP injection was substantially more effective at six months. Evidence suggests that steroid injection is more effective than saline injection for the treatment of hip joint pain, and restoration of functional outcomes.

Stage 2 Registered Report: Anomalous perception in a Ganzfeld condition - A meta-analysis of more than 40 years investigation

This meta-analysis is an investigation into anomalous perception (i.e., conscious identification of information without any conventional sensorial means). The technique used for eliciting an effect is the Ganzfeld condition (a form of sensory homogenization that eliminates distracting peripheral noise). The database consists of studies published between January 1974 and December 2020 inclusive. The overall effect size estimated both with a frequentist and a Bayesian random-effect model, were in close agreement yielding an effect size of approximately .08 (.04 -.12). This result passed four publication bias tests and seems not contaminated by questionable research practices. Trend analysis carried out with a cumulative meta-analysis and a meta-regression model with year of publication as a covariate, did not indicate sign of decline of this effect size. The moderators’ analyses show that the selected participants’ effect size was almost three-times that obtained by non-selected participants and that tasks that simulate telepathic communication show a two-fold effect size for tasks requiring the participants to guess a target. The Stage 1 Registered Report can be accessed here: https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.24868.3

The impact of continuity correction methods in Cochrane reviews with single-zero trials with rare events: A meta-epidemiological study.

Meta-analyses examining dichotomous outcomes often include single-zero studies, where no events occur in intervention or control groups. These pose challenges, and several methods have been proposed to address them. A fixed continuity correction method has been shown to bias estimates, but it is frequently used because sometimes software (e.g., RevMan software in Cochrane reviews) uses it as a default. We aimed to empirically compare results using the continuity correction with those using alternative models that do not require correction. To this aim, we reanalyzed the original data from 885 meta-analyses in Cochrane reviews using the following methods: (i) Mantel-Haenszel model with a fixed continuity correction, (ii) random effects inverse variance model with a fixed continuity correction, (iii) Peto method (the three models available in RevMan), (iv) random effects inverse variance model with the treatment arm continuity correction, (v) Mantel-Haenszel model without correction, (vi) logistic regression, and (vii) a Bayesian random effects model with binominal likelihood. For each meta-analysis we calculated ratios of odds ratios between all methods, to assess how the choice of method may impact results. Ratios of odds ratios <0.8 or <1.25 were seen in ~30% of the existing meta-analyses when comparing results between Mantel-Haenszel model with a fixed continuity correction and either Mantel-Haenszel model without correction or logistic regression. We concluded that injudicious use of the fixed continuity correction in existing Cochrane reviews may have substantially influenced effect estimates in some cases. Future updates of RevMan should incorporate less biased statistical methods.

Acupuncture versus tricyclic antidepressants in the prophylactic treatment of tension-type headaches: an indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis

BackgroundAcupuncture showed better improvement than sham acupuncture in reducing attack frequency of tension-type headache (TTH), but its effectiveness relative to first-line drugs for TTH is unknown, which impedes the recommendation of acupuncture for patients who are intolerant to drugs for TTH. We aimed to estimate the relative effectiveness between acupuncture and tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) through indirect treatment comparison (ITC) meta-analysis.MethodsWe searched Ovid Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library from database inception until April 13, 2023. Randomized controlled trials of TCAs or acupuncture in the prevention of TTH in adults were included. The primary outcome was headache frequency. The secondary outcomes were headache intensity, responder rate, and adverse event rate. Bayesian random-effect models were used to perform ITC meta-analysis, and confidence of evidence was evaluated by using the GRADE approach.ResultsA total of 34 trials involving 4426 participants were included. Acupuncture had similar effect with TCAs in decreasing TTH frequency (amitriptyline: mean difference [MD] -1.29, 95% CI -5.28 to 3.02; amitriptylinoxide: MD -0.05, 95% CI -6.86 to 7.06) and reducing TTH intensity (amitriptyline: MD 2.35, 95% CI -1.20 to 5.78; clomipramine: MD 1.83, 95% CI -4.23 to 8.20). Amitriptyline had a higher rate of adverse events than acupuncture (OR 4.73, 95% CI 1.42 to 14.23).ConclusionAcupuncture had similar effect as TCAs in reducing headache frequency of TTH, and acupuncture had a lower adverse events rate than amitriptyline, as shown by very low certainty of evidence.

Bayesian meta-analysis of penetrance for cancer risk.

Multi-gene panel testing allows many cancer susceptibility genes to be tested quickly at a lower cost making such testing accessible to a broader population. Thus, more patients carrying pathogenic germline mutations in various cancer-susceptibility genes are being identified. This creates a great opportunity, as well as an urgent need, to counsel these patients about appropriate risk-reducing management strategies. Counseling hinges on accurate estimates of age-specific risks of developing various cancers associated with mutations in a specific gene, ie, penetrance estimation. We propose a meta-analysis approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical random-effects model to obtain penetrance estimates by integrating studies reporting different types of risk measures (eg, penetrance, relative risk, odds ratio) while accounting for the associated uncertainties. After estimating posterior distributions of the parameters via a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, we estimate penetrance and credible intervals. We investigate the proposed method and compare with an existing approach via simulations based on studies reporting risks for two moderate-risk breast cancer susceptibility genes, ATM and PALB2. Our proposed method is far superior in terms of coverage probability of credible intervals and mean square error of estimates. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the penetrance of breast cancer among carriers of pathogenic mutations in the ATM gene.

Relative Efficacies of Interventions to Improve the Quality of Screening-Related Colonoscopy: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Significant variability exists in colonoscopy quality indicators, including adenoma detection rate (ADR). We synthesized evidence from randomized trials in a network meta-analysis on interventions to improve colonoscopy quality. We included trials from database inceptions to September 25, 2023, of patients undergoing screening-related colonoscopy and presented efficacies of interventions within domains (periprocedural parameters, endoscopist-directed interventions, intraprocedural techniques, endoscopic technologies, distal attachment devices, and additive substances) compared to standard colonoscopy. The primary outcome was ADR. We used a Bayesian random-effects model using Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation, with 10,000 burn-ins and 100,000 iterations. We calculated odds ratios with 95% credible intervals and present surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) curves. We included 124 trials evaluating 37 interventions for the primary outcome. Nine interventions resulted in statistically significant improvements in ADR compared to standard colonoscopy (9-minute withdrawal time, dual observation, water exchange, i-SCAN [Pentax Ltd], linked color imaging, computer-aided detection, Endocuff [Olympus Corp], Endocuff Vision [Olympus Corp], and oral methylene blue). Dual observation (SUCRA, 0.84) and water exchange (SUCRA, 0.78) ranked highest among intraprocedural techniques; i-SCAN (SUCRA, 0.95), linked color imaging (SUCRA, 0.85), and computer-aided detection (SUCRA, 0.78) among endoscopic technologies; WingCap (A&A Medical Supply LLC) (SUCRA, 0.87) and Endocuff (SUCRA, 0.85) among distal attachment devices and oral methylene blue (SUCRA, 0.94) among additive substances. No interventions improved detection of advanced adenomas, and only narrow-band imaging improved detection of serrated lesions (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% credible interval, 1.46-6.25). Several interventions are effective in improving adenoma detection and overall colonoscopy quality, many of which are cost-free. These results can inform endoscopists, unit managers, and endoscopy societies on relative efficacies.

Which Remote Rehabilitation Interventions Work Best for Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain and Depression? A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of remote rehabilitation interventions for people living with chronic musculoskeletal pain and depression. DESIGN: A systematic review with network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials. LITERATURE SEARCH: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, EMBASE, LILACS MEDLINE, PSYNDEX, and PsycINFO databases from inception to May 2023. STUDY SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials that evaluated the effectiveness of remote rehabilitation interventions in people with chronic musculoskeletal pain and depression. DATA SYNTHESIS: We used Bayesian random-effects models for the NMA. Effect estimates were comparisons between rehabilitation interventions and waitlist. We performed a sensitivity analysis based on bias in the randomization process, large trials (>100 patients per arm) and musculoskeletal condition. RESULTS: Fifty-eight randomized controlled trials involving 10 278 participants (median sample size: 137; interquartile range [IQR]: 77-236) were included. Interactive voice response cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT; standardized mean difference [SMD] -0.66, 95% credible interval [CrI] -1.17 to -0.16), CBT in person (SMD -0.50, 95% CrI -0.97 to -0.04), and mobile app CBT plus exercise (SMD -0.37, 95% CrI -0.69 to -0.02) were superior to waitlist at 12-week follow-up for reducing pain (> 98% probability of superiority). For depression outcomes, Internet-delivered CBT and telecare were superior to waitlist at 12-week follow-up (SMD -0.51, 95% CrI -0.87 to -0.13) (> 99% probability of superiority). For pain outcomes, the certainty of evidence ranged from low to moderate. For depression outcomes, the certainty of evidence ranged from very low to moderate. The proportion of dropouts attributed to adverse events was unclear. No intervention was associated with higher odds of dropout. CONCLUSION: Interactive voice response CBT and mobile app CBT plus exercise showed similar treatment effects with in-person CBT on pain reduction among people living with chronic musculoskeletal pain and depression had over 98% probability of superiority than waitlist control at 12-week follow-up. Internet-delivered CBT and telecare had over 99% probability of superiority than waitlist control for improving depression outcomes at 12-week follow-up. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2024;54(6):1-16. Epub 26 February 2024. doi:10.2519/jospt.2024.12216.

Adoption of tools for sustainable tourism development: role of environmental vulnerability

ABSTRACT There is consensus on the need to develop indicators as tools for assessing progress toward sustainable tourism. This effort is constrained by limitations related to data that allow for comparisons across space and time. A proxy indicator exists but its adoption differs significantly among countries. In this paper, we explore possible reasons for this variation. Specifically, we examine the degree to which environmental vulnerability determines the likelihood of adoption. We apply the panel Bayesian and Negative Binomial random-effects models to data for the period 2008–2021. Results show that environmental vulnerability is a statistically significant determinant of the decision of countries to adopt accounting tools for sustainable tourism development. We also find evidence that the absorption capacity and size of the tourism sector explain adoption. Further analysis reveals that these results are stronger for developed countries relative to developing countries. These results have important implications for sustainable tourism policy design, especially in developing countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change.

Coronary Angiography, Intravascular Ultrasound, and Optical Coherence Tomography for Guiding of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

Results from multiple randomized clinical trials comparing outcomes after intravascular ultrasound (IVUS)- and optical coherence tomography (OCT)-guided percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with invasive coronary angiography (ICA)-guided PCI as well as a pivotal trial comparing the 2 intravascular imaging (IVI) techniques have provided mixed results. Major electronic databases were searched to identify eligible trials evaluating at least 2 PCI guidance strategies among ICA, IVUS, and OCT. The 2 coprimary outcomes were target lesion revascularization and myocardial infarction. The secondary outcomes included ischemia-driven target lesion revascularization, target vessel myocardial infarction, death, cardiac death, target vessel revascularization, stent thrombosis, and major adverse cardiac events. Frequentist random-effects network meta-analyses were conducted. The results were replicated by Bayesian random-effects models. Pairwise meta-analyses of the direct components, multiple sensitivity analyses, and pairwise meta-analyses IVI versus ICA were supplemented. The results from 24 randomized trials (15 489 patients: IVUS versus ICA, 46.4%, 7189 patients; OCT versus ICA, 32.1%, 4976 patients; OCT versus IVUS, 21.4%, 3324 patients) were included in the network meta-analyses. IVUS was associated with reduced target lesion revascularization compared with ICA (odds ratio [OR], 0.69 [95% CI, 0.54-0.87]), whereas no significant differences were observed between OCT and ICA (OR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.63-1.09]) and OCT and IVUS (OR, 1.21 [95% CI, 0.88-1.66]). Myocardial infarction did not significantly differ between guidance strategies (IVUS versus ICA: OR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.70-1.19]; OCT versus ICA: OR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.68-1.11]; OCT versus IVUS: OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.69-1.33]). These results were consistent with the secondary outcomes of ischemia-driven target lesion revascularization, target vessel myocardial infarction, and target vessel revascularization, and sensitivity analyses generally did not reveal inconsistency. OCT was associated with a significant reduction of stent thrombosis compared with ICA (OR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.26-0.92]) but only in the frequentist analysis. Similarly, the results in terms of survival between IVUS or OCT and ICA were uncertain across analyses. A total of 25 randomized trials (17 128 patients) were included in the pairwise meta-analyses IVI versus ICA where IVI guidance was associated with reduced target lesion revascularization, cardiac death, and stent thrombosis. IVI-guided PCI was associated with a reduction in ischemia-driven target lesion revascularization compared with ICA-guided PCI, with the difference most evident for IVUS. In contrast, no significant differences in myocardial infarction were observed between guidance strategies.

Stage 2 Registered Report: Anomalous perception in a Ganzfeld condition - A meta-analysis of more than 40 years investigation.

This meta-analysis is an investigation into anomalous perception (i.e., conscious identification of information without any conventional sensorial means). The technique used for eliciting an effect is the Ganzfeld condition (a form of sensory homogenization that eliminates distracting peripheral noise). The database consists of studies published between January 1974 and December 2020 inclusive. The overall effect size estimated both with a frequentist and a Bayesian random-effect model, were in close agreement yielding an effect size of approximately .08 (.04 -.12). This result passed four publication bias tests and seems not contaminated by questionable research practices. Trend analysis carried out with a cumulative meta-analysis and a meta-regression model with year of publication as a covariate, did not indicate sign of decline of this effect size. The moderators' analyses show that the selected participants' effect size was almost three-times that obtained by non-selected participants and that tasks that simulate telepathic communication show a two-fold effect size for tasks requiring the participants to guess a target. The Stage 1 Registered Report can be accessed here: https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.24868.3.

Bayesian semi-parametric inference for clustered recurrent events with zero inflation and a terminal event.

Recurrent events are common in clinical studies and are often subject to terminal events. In pragmatic trials, participants are often nested in clinics and can be susceptible or structurally unsusceptible to the recurrent events. We develop a Bayesian shared random effects model to accommodate this complex data structure. To achieve robustness, we consider the Dirichlet processes to model the residual of the accelerated failure time model for the survival process as well as the cluster-specific shared frailty distribution, along with an efficient sampling algorithm for posterior inference. Our method is applied to a recent cluster randomized trial on fall injury prevention.