Bayesian Random-effects Meta-analysis Research Articles

Meta-analyses of phase I dose-finding studies: Application for the development of protein kinase inhibitors in oncology.

This study aimed to assess the feasibility of applying two recent phase I meta-analyses methods to protein kinase inhibitors (PKIs) developed in oncology and to identify situations where these methods could be both feasible and useful. This ancillary study used data from a systematic review conducted to identify dose-finding studies for PKIs. PKIs selected for meta-analyses were required to have at least five completed dose-finding studies involving cancer patients, with available results, and dose escalation guided by toxicity assessment. To account for heterogeneity caused by various administration schedules, some studies were divided into study parts, considered as separate entities in the meta-analyses. For each PKI, two Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis methods were applied to model the toxicity probability distribution of the recommended dose and to estimate the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Meta-analyses were performed for 20 PKIs including 96 studies corresponding to 115 study parts. The median posterior probability of toxicity probability was below the toxicity thresholds of 0.20 for 70% of the PKIs, even if the resulting credible intervals were very wide. All approved doses were below the MTD estimated for the minimum toxicity threshold, except for one, for which the approved dose was above the MTD estimated for the maximal threshold. The application of phase I meta-analysis methods has been feasible for the majority of PKI; nevertheless, their implementation requires multiple conditions. However, meta-analyses resulted in estimates with large uncertainty, probably due to limited patient numbers and/or between-study variability. This calls into question the reliability of the recommended doses.

Rates of adverse events of antiretroviral therapy in women living with HIV/AIDS: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectiveThere is limited information regarding the incidence of treatment-related adverse events (AE) following antiretroviral therapy (ART) in women. So, this review aimed to describe the incidence of AE of ART...

The effect of temperature on infectious diarrhea disease: A systematic review

This study aimed to ascertain the delayed effects of various exposure temperatures on infectious diarrhea. We performed a Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis to calculate relative risks (RR) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI). The heterogeneity was analyzed by subgroup analysis. There were 25 cross-sectional studies totaling 6858735 patients included in this analysis, with 12 articles each investigating the effects of both hyperthermia and hypothermia. Results revealed that both high temperature (RRsingle = 1.22, 95%CI:1.04–1.44, RRcum = 2.96, 95%CI:1.60–5.48, P < 0.05) and low temperature (RRsingle = 1.17, 95%CI:1.02–1.37, RRcum = 2.19, 95%CI:1.33–3.64, P < 0.05) significantly increased the risk of infectious diarrhea, while high temperature caused greater. As-sociations with strengthening in bacillary dysentery were found for high temperatures (RRcum = 2.03, 95%CI:1.41–3.01, P < 0.05; RRsingle = 1.17, 95%CI:0.90–1.62, P > 0.05), while the statistical significance of low temperatures in lowering bacterial dysentery had vanished. This investigation examined that high temperature and low temperature were the conditions that posed the greatest risk for infectious diarrhea. This research offers fresh perspectives on preventing infectious diarrhea and will hopefully enlighten future studies on the impact of temperature management on infectious diarrhea.

Meta-analysis of breast cancer risk for individuals with PALB2 pathogenic variants.

Multigene panel testing now allows efficient testing of many cancer susceptibility genes leading to a larger number of mutation carriers being identified. They need to be counseled about their cancer risk conferred by the specific gene mutation. An important cancer susceptibility gene is PALB2. Multiple studies reported risk estimates for breast cancer (BC) conferred by pathogenic variants in PALB2. Due to the diverse modalities of reported risk estimates (age-specific risk, odds ratio, relative risk, and standardized incidence ratio) and effect sizes, a meta-analysis combining these estimates is necessary to accurately counsel patients with this mutation. However, this is not trivial due to heterogeneity of studies in terms of study design and risk measure. We utilized a recently proposed Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis method that can synthesize estimates from such heterogeneous studies. We applied this method to combine estimates from 12 studies on BC risk for carriers of pathogenic PALB2 mutations. The estimated overall (meta-analysis-based) risk of BC is 12.80% (6.11%-22.59%) by age 50 and 48.47% (36.05%-61.74%) by age 80. Pathogenic mutations in PALB2 makes women more susceptible to BC. Our risk estimates can help clinically manage patients carrying pathogenic variants in PALB2.

Effectiveness and Safety of Measures to Prevent Infections and Other Complications Associated With Peripheral Intravenous Catheters: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Peripheral intravenous catheters (PIVCs) contribute substantially to the global burden of infections. This systematic review assessed 24 infection prevention and control (IPC) interventions to prevent PIVC-associated infections and other complications. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, WHO Global Index Medicus, CINAHL, and reference lists for controlled studies from 1 January 1980-16 March 2023. We dually selected studies, assessed risk of bias, extracted data, and rated the certainty of evidence (COE). For outcomes with 3 or more trials, we conducted Bayesian random-effects meta-analyses. 105 studies met our prespecified eligibility criteria, addressing 16 of the 24 research questions; no studies were identified for 8 research questions. Based on findings of low to high COE, wearing gloves reduced the risk of overall adverse events related to insertion compared with no gloves (1 non-randomized controlled trial [non-RCT]; adjusted risk ratio [RR], .52; 95% CI, .33-.85), and catheter removal based on defined schedules potentially resulted in a lower phlebitis/thrombophlebitis incidence (10 RCTs; RR, 0.74, 95% credible interval, .49-1.01) compared with clinically indicated removal in adults. In neonates, chlorhexidine reduced the phlebitis score compared with non-chlorhexidine-containing disinfection (1 RCT; 0.14 vs 0.68; P = .003). No statistically significant differences were found for other measures. Despite their frequent use and concern about PIVC-associated complications, this review underscores the urgent need for more high-quality studies on effective IPC methods regarding safe PIVC management. In the absence of valid evidence, adherence to standard precaution measures and documentation remain the most important principles to curb PIVC complications. The protocol was registered in the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/exdb4).

Complication Rates of Central Venous Catheters

Central venous catheters (CVCs) are commonly used but are associated with complications. Quantifying complication rates is essential for guiding CVC utilization decisions. To summarize current rates of CVC-associated complications. MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases were searched for observational studies and randomized clinical trials published between 2015 to 2023. This study included English-language observational studies and randomized clinical trials of adult patients that reported complication rates of short-term centrally inserted CVCs and data for 1 or more outcomes of interest. Studies that evaluated long-term intravascular devices, focused on dialysis catheters not typically used for medication administration, or studied catheters placed by radiologists were excluded. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was applied to summarize event rates. Rates of placement complications (events/1000 catheters with 95% credible interval [CrI]) and use complications (events/1000 catheter-days with 95% CrI) were estimated. Ten prespecified complications associated with CVC placement (placement failure, arterial puncture, arterial cannulation, pneumothorax, bleeding events requiring action, nerve injury, arteriovenous fistula, cardiac tamponade, arrhythmia, and delay of ≥1 hour in vasopressor administration) and 5 prespecified complications associated with CVC use (malfunction, infection, deep vein thrombosis [DVT], thrombophlebitis, and venous stenosis) were assessed. The composite of 4 serious complications (arterial cannulation, pneumothorax, infection, or DVT) after CVC exposure for 3 days was also assessed. Of 11 722 screened studies, 130 were included in the analyses. Seven of 15 prespecified complications were meta-analyzed. Placement failure occurred at 20.4 (95% CrI, 10.9-34.4) events per 1000 catheters placed. Other rates of CVC placement complications (per 1000 catheters) were arterial canulation (2.8; 95% CrI, 0.1-10), arterial puncture (16.2; 95% CrI, 11.5-22), and pneumothorax (4.4; 95% CrI, 2.7-6.5). Rates of CVC use complications (per 1000 catheter-days) were malfunction (5.5; 95% CrI, 0.6-38), infection (4.8; 95% CrI, 3.4-6.6), and DVT (2.7; 95% CrI, 1.0-6.2). It was estimated that 30.2 (95% CrI, 21.8-43.0) in 1000 patients with a CVC for 3 days would develop 1 or more serious complication (arterial cannulation, pneumothorax, infection, or DVT). Use of ultrasonography was associated with lower rates of arterial puncture (risk ratio [RR], 0.20; 95% CrI, 0.09-0.44; 13.5 events vs 68.8 events/1000 catheters) and pneumothorax (RR, 0.25; 95% CrI, 0.08-0.80; 2.4 events vs 9.9 events/1000 catheters). Approximately 3% of CVC placements were associated with major complications. Use of ultrasonography guidance may reduce specific risks including arterial puncture and pneumothorax.

Effects of atropine eyedrops at ten different concentrations for myopia control in children: A systematic review on meta-analysis.

To estimate the effect of atropine eyedrops at different concentrations for myopia control in children. We conducted a Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis based on randomized controlled trials (RCT). Primary outcomes include changes in spherical equivalent error (SER) and changes in axial length (AL), mean difference (MD) together with 95% credible interval (CrI) were used to evaluate the efficacy. 28 RCTs (6608 children) were included in this review. Comparing ten atropine eyedrops (0.0025%, 0.005%, 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.025%, 0.05%, 0.1%, 0.25%, 0.5% and 1% concentrations) with the placebo, the MDs and 95%CrIs of changes in SER are -0.006 (-0.269, 0.256) D, 0.216 (-0.078, 0.508) D, 0.146 (0.094, 0.199) D, 0.167 (0.039, 0.297) D, 0.201 (0.064, 0.341) D, 0.344 (0.251, 0.440) D, 0.255 (0.114, 0.396) D, 0.296 (0.140, 0.452) D, 0.331 (0.215, 0.447) D, and 0.286 (0.195, 0.337) D, respectively. The MDs and 95%CrIs of changes in AL are -0.048 (-0.182, 0.085) mm, -0.078 (-0.222, 0.066) mm, -0.095 (-0.130, -0.060) mm, -0.096 (-0.183, -0.009) mm, -0.083 (-0.164, -0.004) mm, -0.114 (-0.176, -0.056) mm, -0.134 (-0.198, -0.032) mm, -0.174 (-0.315, -0.061) mm, -0.184 (-0.291, -0.073) mm, and -0.171 (-0.203, -0.097) mm, respectively.Whether evaluated by SER or AL, 1% concentration ranks first in efficacy, but the risk of photophobia is 17 times higher than 0.01% concentration. 0.01% or higher concentration atropine eyedrops are effective for myopia control, while 0.0025% and 0.005% concentrations may not. As the concentration increases, the effect tends to increase, 1% concentration may have the strongest effect.

Ketamine versus etomidate as an induction agent for tracheal intubation in critically ill adults: a Bayesian meta-analysis

BackgroundTracheal intubation is a high-risk intervention commonly performed in critically ill patients. Due to its favorable cardiovascular profile, ketamine is considered less likely to compromise clinical outcomes. This meta-analysis aimed to assess whether ketamine, compared with other agents, reduces mortality in critically ill patients undergoing intubation.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception until April 27, 2023, for randomized controlled trials and matched observational studies comparing ketamine with any control in critically ill patients as an induction agent. The primary outcome was mortality at the longest follow-up available, and the secondary outcomes included Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, ventilator-free days at day 28, vasopressor-free days at day 28, post-induction mean arterial pressure, and successful intubation on the first attempt. For the primary outcome, we used a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis on the risk ratio (RR) scale with a weakly informative neutral prior corresponding to a mean estimate of no difference with 95% probability; the estimated effect size will fall between a relative risk of 0.25 and 4. The RR and 95% credible interval (CrI) were used to estimate the probability of mortality reduction (RR < 1). The secondary outcomes were assessed with a frequentist random-effects model. We registered this study in Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/2vf79/).ResultsWe included seven randomized trials and one propensity-matched study totaling 2978 patients. Etomidate was the comparator in all the identified studies. The probability that ketamine reduced mortality was 83.2% (376/1475 [25%] vs. 411/1503 [27%]; RR, 0.93; 95% CrI, 0.79–1.08), which was confirmed by a subgroup analysis excluding studies with a high risk of bias. No significant difference was observed in any secondary outcomes.ConclusionsAll of the included studies evaluated ketamine versus etomidate among critically ill adults requiring tracheal intubation. This meta-analysis showed a moderate probability that induction with ketamine is associated with a reduced risk of mortality.Graphical abstract

Diagnosis of human leptospirosis: systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the Leptospira microscopic agglutination test, PCR targeting Lfb1, and IgM ELISA to Leptospira fainei serovar Hurstbridge

BackgroundLeptospirosis is an underdiagnosed infectious disease with non-specific clinical presentation that requires laboratory confirmation for diagnosis. The serologic reference standard remains the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) on paired serum samples. However, reported estimates of MAT’s sensitivity vary. We evaluated the accuracy of four index tests, MAT on paired samples as well as alternative standards for leptospirosis diagnosis: MAT on single acute-phase samples, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with the target gene Lfb1, and ELISA IgM with Leptospira fainei serovar Hurstbridge as an antigen.MethodsWe performed a systematic review of studies reporting results of leptospirosis diagnostic tests. We searched eight electronic databases and selected studies that tested human blood samples and compared index tests with blood culture and/or PCR and/or MAT (comparator tests). For MAT selection criteria we defined a threshold for single acute-phase samples according to a national classification of leptospirosis endemicity. We used a Bayesian random-effect meta-analysis to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of MAT in single acute-phase and paired samples separately, and assessed risk of bias using the Quality Assessment of Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy Approach- 2 (QUADAS-2) tool.ResultsFor the MAT accuracy evaluation, 15 studies were included, 11 with single acute-phase serum, and 12 with paired sera. Two included studies used PCR targeting the Lfb1 gene, and one included study used IgM ELISA with Leptospira fainei serovar Hurstbridge as antigen. For MAT in single acute-phase samples, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 14% (95% credible interval [CrI] 3–38%) and 86% (95% CrI 59–96%), respectively, and the predicted sensitivity and specificity were 14% (95% CrI 0–90%) and 86% (95% CrI 9–100%). Among paired MAT samples, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 68% (95% CrI 32–92%) and 75% (95% CrI 45–93%) respectively, and the predicted sensitivity and specificity were 69% (95% CrI 2–100%) and 75% (2–100%).ConclusionsBased on our analysis, the accuracy of MAT in paired samples was not high, but it remains the reference standard until a more accurate diagnostic test is developed. Future studies that include larger numbers of participants with paired samples will improve the certainty of accuracy estimates.

The Efficacy and Safety of Different Targeted Drugs for the Treatment of Generalized Myasthenia Gravis: A Systematic Review and Bayesian Network Meta-analysis.

The treatment of generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) has been transformed by the development and approval of new targeted therapies. This analysis aimed to rank and compare the new therapies for gMG using efficacy and safety data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and ClinicalTrials.gov (up to November 2022) for RCTs of targeted drugs for gMG. We used a Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis (NMA) model and a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model for statistical analysis. The primary outcome was the change in quantitative myasthenia gravis score (QMGS) from baseline, while the secondary outcome was the risk ratio (RR) of adverse events (AEs) during treatment. The surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) was used to rank these targeted drugs, with higher SUCRA values indicating better efficacy or lower likelihood of AEs. In total, 13 studies (872 subjects) were included in this analysis evaluating 10 targeted drugs (batoclimab, belimumab, CFZ533, eculizumab, efgartigimod, nipocalimab, rituximab, ravulizumab, rozanolixizumab, and zilucoplan). With regards to the primary outcome, batoclimab [standardized mean difference (SMD), - 1.61; 95% credible interval (CrI), - 2.78, - 0.43] significantly reduced QMGS in patients with gMG when compared with placebo and was ranked as the most efficacious drug. Ranked second and third were eculizumab (SMD, - 0.67; 95% CrI, 1.43, 0.01) and zilucoplan (SMD, - 0.54; 95% CrI, - 1.56, 0.46), respectively. Nipoclimab (SMD, - 0.02; 95% CrI, - 1.04, 1.00) had the worst efficacy and ranked last among all targeted drugs. In our study, except for batoclimab, there was no statistically significant difference in the reduction of patient QMGS for the remaining targeted agents compared with placebo. With regards to the secondary outcomes, only batoclimab (RR, 0.19; 95% CrI, 0, 0.97) led to a significant reduction in the incidence of AEs when compared with the placebo. Belimumab (RR, 0.85; 95% CrI, 0.57, 1.19), CFZ533 (RR, 0.95; 95% CrI, 0.72, 1.25), eculizumab (RR, 0.99; 95% CrI, 0.85, 1.21), and efgartigimod (RR, 0.93; 95% CrI, 0.76, 1.15) also led to a lower incidence of AEs, although these effects were not significantly different from the placebo. Batoclimab had the best efficacy and safety for the treatment of gMG and was ranked first out of the 10 targeted drugs included in this study. Eculizumab was ranked second, and nipocalimab had the worst efficacy. With the exception of batoclimab,the incidence of AEs for the remaining drugs was not statistically significantly different from placebo. We note, however, that wide CrIs reflect the uncertainty in this analysis owing to the small number of available studies and low numbers of study participants; moreover, batoclimab had the widest CrI of all drugs in this analysis. More well-designed studies with long-term follow-up are needed to further evaluate and compare the efficacy and safety of these drugs in the future.

Bayesian meta-analysis of phase 3 results of aducanumab, lecanemab, donanemab, and high-dose gantenerumab in prodromal and mild Alzheimer's disease.

Phase 3 trials using the anti-amyloid antibodies aducanumab, lecanemab, donanemab, and high-dose gantenerumab in prodromal and mild Alzheimer's disease dementia were heterogeneous in respect to statistical significance of effects. However, heterogeneity of results has not yet directly be quantified. We used Bayesian random effects meta-analysis to quantify evidence for or against a treatment effect, and assessed the size of the effect and its heterogeneity. Data were extracted from published studies where available and Web based data reports, assuming a Gaussian data generation process. We found moderate evidence in favor of a treatment effect (Bayes factor = 13.2). The effect was moderate to small with -0.33 (95% credible interval -0.54 to -0.10) points on the Clinical Dementia Rating - Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) scale. The heterogeneity parameter was low to moderate with 0.21 (0.04 to 0.45) CDR-SB points. Heterogeneity across studies was moderate despite some trials reaching statistical significance, while others did not. This suggests that the negative aducanumab and gantenerumab trials are in full agreement with the expected effect sizes.

Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis with empirical heterogeneity priors for application in health technology assessment with very few studies.

In Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis, the use of weakly informative prior distributions is of particular benefit in cases where only a few studies are included, a situation often encountered in health technology assessment (HTA). Suggestions for empirical prior distributions are available in the literature but it is unknown whether these are adequate in the context of HTA. Therefore, a database of all relevant meta-analyses conducted by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG, Germany) was constructed to derive empirical prior distributions for the heterogeneity parameter suitable for HTA. Previously, an extension to the normal-normal hierarchical model had been suggested for this purpose. For different effect measures, this extended model was applied on the database to conservatively derive a prior distribution for the heterogeneity parameter. Comparison of a Bayesian approach using the derived priors with IQWiG's current standard approach for evidence synthesis shows favorable properties. Therefore, these prior distributions are recommended for future meta-analyses in HTA settings and could be embedded into the IQWiG evidence synthesis approach in the case of very few studies.

Multiple Real-World Data Sources in a Bayesian Framework to Inform Long-Term Survival Estimates of Mosunetuzumab in Patients with Follicular Lymphoma.

Patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) receiving third-line or later (3L +) therapy have long survival, which can make estimating long-term overall survival (OS) from trial data challenging. The objective of this study was to estimate long-term OS for mosunetuzumab from the GO29781 trial (NCT02500407) using multiple real-world databases (RWDs) in a Bayesian framework. Seven RWD sources for patients with FL receiving 3L + therapy and the expansion cohort in the GO29781 trial for mosunetuzumab were used. Hazard trends from the RWD sources were analyzed, and disease-wide pointwise OS and its corresponding uncertainty were estimated using Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis from the RWD sources. Pointwise OS obtained was used as an informative prior in Bayesian survival extrapolations to data from patients receiving mosunetuzumab. Results after adjusting for background mortality were compared to equivalent frequentist extrapolations using trial data only. Hazard patterns from RWD sources supported a constant or linearly decreasing hazard. Mean pointwise OS for patients with FL receiving 3L + therapy was estimated at 0.52 (95% credible interval, 0.29-0.85) at 8years. Bayesian extrapolations for mosunetuzumab produced median survival estimates of 11.6 (6.7-20.7)years to 17.0 (6.4-22.7)years depending on the distribution used, reducing uncertainty by 20% to 46% relative to the frequentist estimation. Multiple RWD sources can be synthesized to augment the credibility of data with short follow-up, long patient survival, and few events to effectively estimate long-term survival and reduce estimated uncertainty. This method can be applied to other indications with similar characteristics. NCT02500407, July 16, 2015.

Cognitive Trajectories in Preclinical and Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease Related to Amyloid Status and Brain Atrophy: A Bayesian Approach.

Cognitive decline is a key outcome of clinical studies in Alzheimer's disease (AD). To determine effects of global amyloid load as well as hippocampus and basal forebrain volumes on longitudinal rates and practice effects from repeated testing of domain specific cognitive change in the AD spectrum, considering non-linear effects and heterogeneity across cohorts. We included 1,514 cases from three cohorts, ADNI, AIBL, and DELCODE, spanning the range from cognitively normal people to people with subjective cognitive decline and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We used generalized Bayesian mixed effects analysis of linear and polynomial models of amyloid and volume effects in time. Robustness of effects across cohorts was determined using Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We found a consistent effect of amyloid and hippocampus volume, but not of basal forebrain volume, on rates of memory change across the three cohorts in the meta-analysis. Effects for amyloid and volumetric markers on executive function were more heterogeneous. We found practice effects in memory and executive performance in amyloid negative cognitively normal controls and MCI cases, but only to a smaller degree in amyloid positive controls and not at all in amyloid positive MCI cases. We found heterogeneity between cohorts, particularly in effects on executive functions. Initial increases in cognitive performance in amyloid negative, but not in amyloid positive MCI cases and controls may reflect practice effects from repeated testing that are lost with higher levels of cerebral amyloid.

Rehabilitation Interventions for Physical Capacity and Quality of Life in Adults With Post–COVID-19 Condition

Current rehabilitation guidelines for patients with post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) are primarily based on expert opinions and observational data, and there is an urgent need for evidence-based rehabilitation interventions to support patients with PCC. To synthesize the findings of existing studies that report on physical capacity (including functional exercise capacity, muscle function, dyspnea, and respiratory function) and quality of life outcomes following rehabilitation interventions in patients with PCC. A systematic electronic search was performed from January 2020 until February 2023, in MEDLINE, Scopus, CINAHL, and the Clinical Trials Registry. Key terms that were used to identify potentially relevant studies included long-covid, post-covid, sequelae, exercise therapy, rehabilitation, physical activity, physical therapy, and randomized controlled trial. This study included randomized clinical trials that compared respiratory training and exercise-based rehabilitation interventions with either placebo, usual care, waiting list, or control in patients with PCC. This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. A pairwise bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was performed using vague prior distributions. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool version 2, and the certainty of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE system by 2 independent researchers. The primary outcome was functional exercise capacity, measured at the closest postintervention time point by the 6-minute walking test. Secondary outcomes were fatigue, lower limb muscle function, dyspnea, respiratory function, and quality of life. All outcomes were defined a priori. Continuous outcomes were reported as standardized mean differences (SMDs) with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) and binary outcomes were summarized as odds ratios with 95% CrIs. The between-trial heterogeneity was quantified using the between-study variance, τ2, and 95% CrIs. Of 1834 identified records, 1193 were screened, and 14 trials (1244 patients; 45% female participants; median [IQR] age, 50 [47 to 56] years) were included in the analyses. Rehabilitation interventions were associated with improvements in functional exercise capacity (SMD, -0.56; 95% CrI, -0.87 to -0.22) with moderate certainty in 7 trials (389 participants). These improvements had a 99% posterior probability of superiority when compared with current standard care. The value of τ2 (0.04; 95% CrI, 0.00 to 0.60) indicated low statistical heterogeneity. However, there was significant uncertainty and imprecision regarding the probability of experiencing exercise-induced adverse events (odds ratio, 1.68; 95% CrI, 0.32 to 9.94). The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that rehabilitation interventions are associated with improvements in functional exercise capacity, dyspnea, and quality of life, with a high probability of improvement compared with the current standard care; the certainty of evidence was moderate for functional exercise capacity and quality of life and low for other outcomes. Given the uncertainty surrounding the safety outcomes, additional trials with enhanced monitoring of adverse events are necessary.

The risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The optimal duration of anticoagulation in patients with active cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. Current clinical guidelines advocate anticoagulant therapy for 3-6 months and to continue anticoagulant therapy for as long as the cancer is active. However, an adequate systematic review on the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy has not been performed. For this systemic review and meta-analysis, we searched Embase.com, Medline (Ovid), Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar, from database inception to February 16, 2023, for studies on anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer and the recurrence of venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of this therapy. We included randomised controlled trials and cohort studies published in English that reported on patients who met the following: cancer and a first VTE, completed at least 3 months of anticoagulant therapy, were followed after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy, and with symptomatic recurrent VTE as an outcome during follow-up. Study-level data were requested from study authors. The primary outcome was the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years for the pooled studies at different time intervals after discontinuation of anticoagulation therapy. We also calculated the cumulative VTE recurrence rate at different time intervals. Forest plots were mapped and the results were summarized by the median and 95% credible interval (CIs). This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021249060. Of 3856 studies identified in our search, 33 studies were identified for inclusion. After requesting study-level data, 14 studies involving 1922 patients with cancer-associated thrombosis were included. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy was 14.6 events (95% credible interval 6.5-22.8) in the first three months, decreasing to 1.1 events (95% CI 0.3-2.1) in year 2-3, and 2.2 events (95% CI 0.0-4.4) in year 3-5 after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. The cumulative VTE recurrence rate was 28.3% (95% CI 15.6-39.6%) at 1 year; 31.1% (95% CI 16.5-43.8%) at 2 years; 31.9% (95% CI 16.8-45.0%) at 3 years; and 35.0% (95% CI 16.8-47.4%) at 5 years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. This meta-analysis demonstrates a high rate of recurrent VTE over time after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis. Our results support the current clinical guidelines to continue anticoagulant therapy in patients with active cancer. Erasmus MC.

Catheter ablation as first-line treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian network meta-analysis

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Clinical trials suggest that early catheter ablation (CA) can be superior to anti-arrhythmic drugs (AADs) in "naïve" patients with AF. A low power to examine the outcomes, the use of a single technology ablation, and the short follow-up period are significant limitations of the studies. The EARLY-AF (Early Aggressive Invasive Intervention for Atrial Fibrillation) trial recently reported the results over three years of follow-up. Our research aims to update the comparison among different CA technologies with AADs as reference treatment. Interest outcomes included freedom from atrial tachycardia recurrences (ATRs) for efficacy and serious adverse events (AEs) for safety. Methods A systematic literature search was carried out up to Oct 31, 2022. We considered studies of patients with untreated atrial fibrillation who were enrolled in a trial in which they had been assigned to undergo initial rhythm-control therapy with cryoballoon (CRYO) or radiofrequency (RF) CA in at least one arm or to receive antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs). A Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis (NMA) model comparing ATRs and AEs among the treatment arms was performed using MetaInsight V 4.0.0 web-based tool. Estimates are presented as Odds Ratio (OR) with a 95% Credible Interval (CrI). The surface under the cumulative ranking area (SUCRA) probabilities was selected to calculate the ranking and hierarchy of the different treatments. The larger SUCRA indicates the greater likelihood of becoming the best intervention. Results Six randomised control trials (RCTs) and one observational study (OBS) with 1,418 patients (mainly paroxysmal AF) were included. The follow-up period ranged from 12 to 36 months. The NMA demonstrates that ATRs were significantly lower with CRYO (OR [95% CrI], 0.36 [0.17-0.72]) and RF (OR [95% CrI], 0.39 [0.16-0.72]) compared with AADs. No significant difference was observed between CRYO and RF (OR [95% CrI], 1.09 [0.39-2.4]). The higher SUCRA value for CRYO (79%) indicated the likelihood that the treatment is the best, followed by RF (70%) and AADs (8%) (Figure 1). A total of 228 AEs were observed in 1,565 patients. The cumulative AEs associated with RF (OR [95% CrI], 1.31 [0.65-2.72]) and CRYO (OR [95% CrI], 0.72 [0.39-1.29]) were statistically similar in comparison with AADs. The indirect comparison showed no significant difference between the two ablative techniques. The probability of avoiding an AE was highest for CRYO (91%), followed by AADs (45%) and RF (14%) (Figure 2). In both analyses, the assessment of inconsistency for all studies was not significant (P &amp;gt; 0.05). Conclusions Our NMA demonstrated a lower rate of ATRs in patients treated with CRYO or RF CA than AADs. Furthermore, CA had a safety profile comparable to AADs. These results suggest recommending CA as a first-line treatment when early rhythm control is warranted, mainly in patients with paroxysmal AF.

Effect of Intravenous Iron Replacement on Recurrent Heart Failure Hospitalizations and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients with Heart Failure and Iron Deficiency: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

Iron deficiency is common in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and is associated with a poor prognosis. Whether intravenous iron replacement improves recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality of these patients is uncertain although several trials were conducted. Moreover, none of the trials were powered to assess the effect of intravenous iron in clinically important subgroups. Therefore, we conducted a Bayesian analysis to derive precise estimates of the effect of intravenous iron replacement on recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality in iron-deficient HFrEF patients using consistent subgroup definitions across trials. Individual participant data was used from the FAIR-HF (n=459), CONFIRM-HF (n=304) and AFFIRM-AHF (n=1,108) trials. This data was re-analyzed following as closely as possible the approach taken in the analyses of IRONMAN (n=1,137), for which study level data was used. Definitions of outcomes and subgroups from the FAIR-HF, CONFIRM-HF and AFFIRM-AHF were matched with those used in IRONMAN. The primary endpoint was recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality. The analysis of recurrent events was based on rate ratios (RR) derived from the Lin-Wei-Yang-Ying model, and the data were pooled using Bayesian random effect meta-analysis. Compared with placebo, intravenous iron significantly reduced the rates of recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality (RR: 0.73, 95% credible interval (CI) [0.48-0.99]; between-trial heterogeneity tau=0.16). The pooled treatment effects did not provide evidence for any differential effects for subgroups based on sex (ratio of rate ratios [RRR]: 1.49 , 95% CI [0.95-2.37], age < vs ≥69.4 years (RRR= 0.68 [0.40-1.15]), ischemic vs non-ischemic etiology of HF (RRR=0.73 [0.42-1.33]), transferrin saturation < vs ≥20% (RRR=0.75 [0.40-1.34]), estimated glomerular filtration rate (≤ vs >60 mL/min/1.73m2 (RRR=0.97 [0.56-1.68]), haemoglobin < vs ≥ 11.8 (RRR=0.95 [0.53-1.60]), ferritin < vs ≥35 μg/L (RRR=1.26 [0.72-2.48]) and New York Heart Association Class II vs III/IV (RRR=0.91 [0.54-1.56]). Treatment of iron-deficient HFrEF patients with intravenous iron - namely with ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose - results in significant reduction in recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality. Results were nominally consistent across the subgroups studied, but for several of these subgroups uncertainty remains present. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Summarizing empirical information on between-study heterogeneity for Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis.

In Bayesian meta-analysis, the specification of prior probabilities for the between-study heterogeneity is commonly required, and is of particular benefit in situations where only few studies are included. Among the considerations in the set-up of such prior distributions, the consultation of available empirical data on a set of relevant past analyses sometimes plays a role. How exactly to summarize historical data sensibly is not immediately obvious; in particular, the investigation of an empirical collection of heterogeneity estimates will not target the actual problem and will usually only be of limited use. The commonly used normal-normal hierarchical model for random-effects meta-analysis is extended to infer a heterogeneity prior. Using an example data set, we demonstrate how to fit a distribution to empirically observed heterogeneity data from a set of meta-analyses. Considerations also include the choice of a parametric distribution family. Here, we focus on simple and readily applicable approaches to then translate these into (prior) probability distributions.

Radiographic and endoscopic screening to reduce gastric cancer mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Previous systematic reviews naïvely combined biased effects of screening radiography or endoscopy observed in studies with various designs. We aimed to synthesize currently available comparative data on gastric cancer mortality in healthy, asymptomatic adults by explicitly classifying the screening effects through study designs and types of intervention effects. We searched multiple databases through October 31, 2022 for this systematic review and meta-analysis. Studies of any design that compared gastric cancer mortality among radiographic or endoscopic screening and no screening in a community-dwelling adult population were included. The method included a duplicate assessment of eligibility, double extraction of summary data, and validity assessment using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool. Bayesian three-level hierarchical random-effects meta-analysis synthesized data corrected for self-selection bias on the relative risk (RR) for per-protocol (PP) and intention-to-screen (ITS) effects. The study registration number at PROSPERO is CRD42021277126. We included seven studies in which a screening program was newly introduced (median attendance rate, 31%; at moderate-to-critical risk of bias), and seven cohort and eight case-control studies with ongoing screening programs (median attendance rate, 21%; all at critical risk of bias); thus, data of 1,667,117 subjects were included. For the PP effect, the average risk reduction was significant for endoscopy (RR 0.52; 95% credible interval: 0.39-0.79) but nonsignificant for radiography (0.80; 0.60-1.06). The ITS effect was not significant for both radiography (0.98; 0.86-1.09) and endoscopy (0.94; 0.71-1.28). The magnitude of the effects depended on the assumptions for the self-selection bias correction. Restricting the scope to East Asian studies only did not change the results. In limited-quality observational evidence from high-prevalence regions, screening reduced gastric cancer mortality; however, the effects diminished at a program level. National Cancer Center Japan; and Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development.