Bayesian Phase Research Articles

BOP2-TE: Bayesian optimal phase 2 design for jointly monitoring efficacy and toxicity with application to dose optimization.

We propose a Bayesian optimal phase 2 design for jointly monitoring efficacy and toxicity, referred to as BOP2-TE, to improve the operating characteristics of the BOP2 design proposed by Zhou. BOP2-TE utilizes a Dirichlet-multinomial model to jointly model the distribution of toxicity and efficacy endpoints, making go/no-go decisions based on the posterior probability of toxicity and futility. In comparison to the original BOP2 and other existing designs, BOP2-TE offers the advantage of providing rigorous type I error control in cases where the treatment is toxic and futile, effective but toxic, or safe but futile, while optimizing power when the treatment is effective and safe. As a result, BOP2-TE enhances trial safety and efficacy. We also explore the incorporation of BOP2-TE into multiple-dose randomized trials for dose optimization, and consider a seamless design that integrates phase I dose finding with phase II randomized dose optimization. BOP2-TE is user-friendly, as its decision boundary can be determined prior to the trial's onset. Simulations demonstrate that BOP2-TE possesses desirable operating characteristics. We have developed a user-friendly web application as part of the BOP2 app, which is freely available at https://www.trialdesign.org.

Bayesian quantum phase estimation with fixed photon states

We consider a two-mode bosonic state with fixed photon number n∈N\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$n \\in \\mathbb {N}$$\\end{document}, whose upper and lower modes pick up a phase ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\phi $$\\end{document} and -ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$-\\phi $$\\end{document}, respectively. We compute the optimal Fock coefficients of the input state, such that the mean square error (MSE) for estimating ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\phi $$\\end{document} is minimized, while the minimum MSE is always attainable by a measurement. Our setting is Bayesian, i.e., we consider ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\phi $$\\end{document} to be a random variable that follows a prior probability distribution function (PDF). Initially, we consider the flat prior PDF and we discuss the well-known fact that the MSE is not an informative tool for estimating a phase when the variance of the prior PDF is large. Therefore, we move on to study truncated versions of the flat prior in both single-shot and adaptive approaches. For our adaptive technique, we consider n=1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$n=1$$\\end{document} and truncated prior PDFs. Each subsequent step utilizes as prior PDF the posterior probability of the previous step, and at the same time we update the optimal state and optimal measurement.

Adaptive phase lock loop system for global navigation satellite systems signals

Formulation of the problem. Classical optimal Bayesian phase lock loop (PLL) algorithms require a priori knowledge of the phase dynamics parameters and signal-to-noiz ratios of the received signals. In practice, these parameters vary significantly and, as a rule, are unknown. Taking into account the fact that the operation of such algorithms under conditions different from those a priori specified is not reliable according to the criterion of minimum variance error. Purpose of the study. Develop a phase-locked loop system for the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal that adapts to phase dynamics and signal-to-noise ratio to maintain phase tracking over the widest possible range of operating conditions. Results. A multi-channel adaptive phase-locked loop system (MAPLL system) has been developed. Practical significance. The developed system is capable of processing a jump in the signal-to-noise ratio from 50 to 9 dBHz and back without losing phase tracking (under conditions of low dynamics), maintaining phase tracking during abrupt transitions of dynamics between low (due only to the dynamics of the reference oscillator) and high (sinusoidal acceleration 10g and sinusoidal jerk 10 g/s) at a signal-to-noise ratio of 24 dBHz. Thus, in real-world conditions where object dynamics and S/N ratios of received signals change in unpredictable ways, MAPLL system maintains phase tracking over a much wider range of conditions than non-adaptive PLL.

U-MET: Utility-Based Dose Optimization Approach for Multiple-Dose Randomized Trial Designs

The advent of dose optimization has led to a paradigm shift in oncology clinical trials to find the optimal biologic dose (OBD). Phase 1/2 trials with randomized doses can facilitate additional investigation of the identified OBD in a targeted population by incorporating safety and efficacy data. We propose to compare randomized doses by extending the Bayesian optimal interval phase 1/2 (BOIN12) approach, an OBD-finding design in which a utility is used to account for risk-benefit tradeoffs. Specifically, we used the BOIN12 standardized mean utilities in a hypothesis testing framework, in which frequentist and Bayesian inference were evaluated to compare the standardized mean utilities across doses and identify the OBD. We performed simulation studies and a hypothetical oncology study to compare the proposed BOIN12 utility-based extension (U-MET) design with an empirical design. The results demonstrated that the U-MET design has satisfactory operating characteristics for selecting the OBD. We recommend using the U-MET design as the primary dose comparison approach, or alternatively as supportive evidence, for optimal dose selection.

19 Phase II Trial of Ubamatamab in MUC16-Expressing SMARCB1-Deficient Renal Medullary Carcinoma and Epithelioid Sarcoma

Abstract Background Mucin 16 (MUC16) is a large integral membrane glycoprotein that is highly expressed in malignancies such as ovarian cancer but only at low abundance in epithelial cells of normal tissues. Proteolytic cleavage of cell surface MUC16 results in the shedding of its extracellular portion, known as cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), into the bloodstream and a short, membrane-associated C-terminal MUC16 domain that remains on the cell surface. Renal medullary carcinoma (RMC) and epithelioid sarcoma (ES) are aggressive SMARCB1-deficient malignancies found to have elevated serum CA-125 levels in 70-80% of cases. Our preclinical studies suggest that upregulation of MUC16 upon SMARCB1 loss is a viable and attractive tumor target for SMARCB1-deficient malignancies such as ES and RMC. Ubamatamab is a human IgG4-based anti-MUC16 x anti-CD3 bispecific antibody that specifically targets the cell surface bound C-terminal MUC16 domain and can thus induce T cell–redirected killing of tumor cells even in the presence of high concentrations of CA-125. It would thus be a rationale therapy to use in SMARCB1-deficient malignancies expressing MUC16, including those such as RMC known to downregulate MHC Class I as a resistance mechanism to conventional immunotherapy. This is because CD3-targeting bispecific antibodies such as ubamatamab replace conventional signal 1 by engaging T cells regardless of MHC class I expression. As proof of concept, a 20-year-old patient with metastatic SMARCB1-negative ES expressing high levels of serum CA-125 achieved a durable (12+ months) partial response to ubamatamab after progressing on multiple prior therapies, including EZH2 inhibition with tazemetostat as well as anti-PD1/CTLA4 immune checkpoint inhibition with nivolumab plus ipilimumab. The patient reported Grade 2 CRS, pleural effusion, and pericardial effusion, all of which resolved without intervention1. This serves as proof-of-concept for the ability of CD3-targeted bispecifics to overcome resistance to immune checkpoint inhibition. Given this strong preclinical and clinical evidence, we have developed a phase II clinical trial of ubamatamab alone or in combination with the anti-PD1 immune-checkpoint inhibitor cemiplimab in patients with MUC16-expressing RMC and ES who have progressed on at least one line of prior therapy. Up to 20 patients will be enrolled from each disease cohort (ES and RMC) for a total of up to 40 patients. Patients enrolled in Stage I of the trial will receive ubamatamab monotherapy. Patients with disease progression on ubamatamab monotherapy during Stage I can proceed to stage II, which will evaluate the combination of ubamatamab with cemiplimab combination. The co-primary endpoints will be objective response rate (ORR) at any time during the trial and disease control rate (DCR) through 18 weeks. Secondary endpoints will include overall survival, progression-free survival, duration of response, and safety. All endpoints will be analyzed and reported separately for each disease cohort (RMC and ES), and for each Stage (ubamatamab monotherapy and combination ubamatamab with cemiplimab). The trial will utilize the time-to-event Bayesian Optimal Phase II (TOP) design, which maximizes statistical power with well-controlled type I errors. For patients with ES, the joint null hypotheses are that the objective response rate (ORR) is 15% and the disease control rate (DCR) is 26%. The regimen will be promising if either ORR is greater than 15% or DCR is greater than 26% with 69.6% power to declare this an interesting regimen if ORR is 30% and the DCR is 43%. For patients with RMC, the joint null hypotheses are that the objective response rate (ORR) is 15% and the disease control rate (DCR) is 15%. The regimen will be promising if either ORR is greater than 15% or DCR is greater than 15% with 71.4% power to declare this an interesting regimen if ORR is 30% and the DCR is 30%. Pre- and post-treatment correlative analyses will be performed in blood and tumor biopsy tissues to identify changes in specific immune cell subsets and elucidate the dynamic evolution of tumor and immune cell compartments as well as their spatial relationships following ubamatamab alone or in combination with cemiplimab. References 1 Revon-Riviere G, Chami R, Mills D, et al. Mucin 16 (cancer antigen 125) Expression in Epithelioid Sarcoma leads to Single-Patient Study with Bispecific T-Cell Engager Ubamatamab (Mucin16xCD3): A Bench-To-Bedside Experience. Connective Tissue Oncology Society, Nov 16–19, 2022, Vancouver, Canada.

Bayesian approach to coherent combination of single photon beams.

We theoretically investigate the performance of a coherent beam combination of two light beams under relative phase fluctuations in the photon starved regime. We apply a first-principles approach using the optimal Bayesian phase correction protocol. We analyze the efficiency of beam combination as a function of the phase fluctuations strength.

Bayesian sequential monitoring strategies for trials of digestive cancer therapeutics

BackgroundNew therapeutics in oncology have presented challenges to existing paradigms and trial designs in all phases of drug development. As a motivating example, we considered an ongoing phase II trial planned to evaluate the combination of a MET inhibitor and an anti-PD-L1 immunotherapy to treat advanced oesogastric carcinoma. The objective of the paper was to exemplify the planning of an adaptive phase II trial with novel anti-cancer agents, including prolonged observation windows and joint sequential evaluation of efficacy and toxicity.MethodsWe considered various candidate designs and computed decision rules assuming correlations between efficacy and toxicity. Simulations were conducted to evaluate the operating characteristics of all designs.ResultsDesign approaches allowing continuous accrual, such as the time-to-event Bayesian Optimal Phase II design (TOP), showed good operating characteristics while ensuring a reduced trial duration. All designs were sensitive to the specification of the correlation between efficacy and toxicity during planning, but TOP can take that correlation into account more easily.ConclusionsWhile specifying design working hypotheses requires caution, Bayesian approaches such as the TOP design had desirable operating characteristics and allowed incorporating concomittant information, such as toxicity data from concomitant observations in another relevant patient population (e.g., defined by mutational status).

Determination of the Optimal Volume of 0.5% Ropivacaine in Single-Injection Retroclavicular Brachial Plexus Block for Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery: A Phase I/II Trial.

A brachial plexus block plays an important role in providing perioperative analgesia for shoulder surgery; however, the inherent risk of phrenic nerve block and resulting hemidiaphragmatic paralysis may limit its use in patients with compromised pulmonary function. This study aimed to evaluate safety, efficacy, the maximum tolerated volume, and the optimal biological volume of 0.5% ropivacaine used in a single-injection retroclavicular brachial plexus block for arthroscopic shoulder surgery. In this seamless single-arm exploratory phase I/II trial, a novel Bayesian optimal interval design was used to guide volume escalation for determination of the maximum tolerated volume, followed by sequential volume expansion using Bayesian optimal phase 2 design to establish the optimal biological volume. Fifty-four patients who underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery received a single-injection retroclavicular brachial plexus block with 0.5% ropivacaine ranging from 15 mL to 40 mL. The primary outcomes were complete or partial hemidiaphragmatic paralysis in phase I, measured using ultrasound 30 min after block completion, and the block success in phase II, defined as achieving a total sensorimotor score ≥12 points and the total sensory score ≥3, measured through manual sensorimotor testing. The maximum tolerated volume for the single-injection retroclavicular brachial plexus block was determined to be 35 mL of 0.5% ropivacaine, with a hemidiaphragmatic paralysis rate of 0.09 (95% credible interval, 0 to 0.29). The optimal biological volume was found to be 25 mL, with a block success rate of 1.0 (95% credible interval, 0.95 to 1.0) and a negligible hemidiaphragmatic paralysis rate of 0.01 (95% credible interval, 0 to 0.06). A single-injection retroclavicular brachial plexus block using 25 mL of 0.5% ropivacaine produced consistent block success with a minimal HDP rate, suggesting the need for further studies to confirm this result in arthroscopic shoulder surgery.

Bayesian cloud-top phase determination for Meteosat Second Generation

Abstract. A comprehensive understanding of the cloud thermodynamic phase is crucial for assessing the cloud radiative effect and is a prerequisite for remote sensing retrievals of microphysical cloud properties. While previous algorithms mainly detected ice and liquid phases, there is now a growing awareness for the need to further distinguish between warm liquid, supercooled and mixed-phase clouds. To address this need, we introduce a novel method named ProPS (PRObabilistic cloud top Phase retrieval for SEVIRI), which enables cloud detection and the determination of cloud-top phase using SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), the geostationary passive imager aboard Meteosat Second Generation. ProPS discriminates between clear sky, optically thin ice (TI) cloud, optically thick ice (IC) cloud, mixed-phase (MP) cloud, supercooled liquid (SC) cloud and warm liquid (LQ) cloud. Our method uses a Bayesian approach based on the cloud mask and cloud phase from the lidar–radar cloud product DARDAR (liDAR/raDAR). The validation of ProPS using 6 months of independent DARDAR data shows promising results: the daytime algorithm successfully detects 93 % of clouds and 86 % of clear-sky pixels. In addition, for phase determination, ProPS accurately classifies 91 % of IC, 78 % of TI, 52 % of MP, 58 % of SC and 86 % of LQ clouds, providing a significant improvement in accurate cloud-top phase discrimination compared to traditional retrieval methods.

Metronomic chemotherapy plus anti-PD-1 in metastatic breast cancer: a Bayesian adaptive randomized phase 2 trial.

It remains unclear whether metronomic chemotherapy is superior to conventional chemotherapy when combined with immune checkpoint blockade. Here we performed a phase 2 clinical trial of metronomic chemotherapy combined with PD-1 blockade to compare the efficacy of combined conventional chemotherapy and PD-1 blockade using Bayesian adaptive randomization and efficacy monitoring. Eligible patients had metastatic HER2-negative breast cancer and had not received more than one prior line of standard chemotherapy. Patients (total n = 97) were randomized to receive (1) metronomic vinorelbine (NVB) monotherapy (n = 11), (2) NVB plus anti-PD-1 toripalimab (n = 7), (3) anti-angiogenic bevacizumab, NVB and toripalimab (n = 27), (4) conventional cisplatin, NVB and toripalimab (n = 26), or (5) metronomic cyclophosphamide, capecitabine, NVB and toripalimab (the VEX cohort) (n = 26). The primary endpoint was disease control rate (DCR). Secondary objectives included progression-free survival (PFS) and safety. The study met the primary endpoint. The VEX (69.7%) and cisplatin (73.7%) cohorts had the highest DCR. The median PFS of patients in the VEX cohort was the longest, reaching 6.6 months, followed by the bevacizumab (4.0 months) and cisplatin (3.5 months) cohorts. In general, the five regimens were well tolerated, with nausea and neutropenia being the most common adverse events. An exploratory mass cytometry analysis indicated that metronomic VEX chemotherapy reprograms the systemic immune response. Together, the clinical and translational data of this study indicate that metronomic VEX chemotherapy combined with PD-1 blockade can be a treatment option in patients with breast cancer. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04389073 .

Bayesian Optimization Phase I Design of Experiment Models

Bayesian Optimization Phase I Design of Experiment Models

A Bayesian adaptive phase III design for multi-arm trials with time-to-event endpoint for nonproportional hazards utilizing the generalized gamma distribution

In case of trials with time-to-event endpoints, sample size calculations are well-studied under the assumption of proportional hazards or when the endpoint of interest follows an exponential distribution. When prior evidence suggests otherwise, using traditional approaches may lead to inefficiently designed and underpowered studies. In such situations, a recently introduced frequentist approach proposes a sample size calculation for a fixed two-arm trial based on the accelerated failure time model thereby allowing nonproportional hazards and can be utilized for any distribution from the generalized gamma family. Advances in the field of clinical trials research have focused on the need for adaptive phase III designs with complex features, however, existing methods in literature have ignored the nonproportional hazards scenario. In this article, we propose a Bayesian adaptive design for a multi-arm phase III trial with nonproportional hazards allowing many complex features such as incorporation of prior knowledge of early phase studies, arms dropping, and response adaptive randomization. We extend the frequentist approach utilizing a generalized gamma distribution to a Bayesian setting while simultaneously addressing one of the key limitations of the frequentist approach. Extensive simulations are performed to study the operation characteristics of the proposed design using two examples representing real-life applications.

Efficacy and safety of dalpiciclib, fulvestrant, and pyrotinib in HR+ HER2-low advanced breast cancer following cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors and aromatase inhibitors (AIs): A Bayesian optimal phase II trial.

e13056 Background: Cross-line treatment with CDK4/6 inhibitors is a challenging topic. Currently, the MAINTAIN study, which involves switching CDK4/6 inhibitors and endocrine therapy, is the only one with positive results. Additionally, in vitro studies have demonstrated that the combination of anti-HER2 agents with CDK4/6 inhibitors, along with fulvestrant, can synergistically enhance inhibition in cell lines with low HER2 expression. The present study aims to assess the efficacy and safety of dalpiciclib, fulvestrant, and pyrotinib in patients with HR-positive and HER2-low advanced breast cancer (BC), who have experienced disease progression after treatment with CDK4/6 inhibitors and AIs. Methods: We propose a single-arm Bayesian optimal phase II design with a time-to-event endpoint. Key eligibility criteria include patients over 18 years of age with HR+, HER2-low advanced BC, disease progression following treatment with CDK4/6 inhibitors and AIs, no more than one line of chemotherapy. Patients who meet these criteria will receive oral dalpiciclib at a dose of 125 mg/day (three weeks on and one week off), intramuscular fulvestrant at a dose of 500 mg every four weeks, and oral pyrotinib at a dose of 320 mg/day until intolerance or disease progression. The primary endpoint of the study is progression-free survival (PFS), and the secondary endpoints include objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), overall survival, safety, and biomarker analysis. The study aims to enroll up to 30 patients, and an interim analysis will be conducted after the enrollment of 15 patients to make a go/no-go decision based on the stopping boundaries of the total observation time (TOT). Results: From May 2023 to November 2023, a total of 15 patients were enrolled in the study. The median age of the patients was 50 years (range: 36-72). Among these patients, 7 (46.7%) had visceral metastasis, 11 (73.3%) had undergone previous chemotherapy, 12 (80.0%) received abemaciclib, and 3 (20%) received palbociclib. The median duration of prior treatment with CDK4/6 inhibitors was 14 months (range: 5-33). As of January 24, 2024, a total of 9 patients underwent efficacy evaluation, revealing an ORR of 44.44% (4/9) and a DCR of 66.67% (6/9), 4 patients experienced disease progression. The TOT was 49.50 months, exceeding the predetermined stopping boundary of 22.54 months. Currently, the survival data are immature. The median follow-up period is 3.20 months (95% CI: 2.33-NA), and the median PFS has not been reached. Grade 3 and above treatment-related adverse events were reported in 40% (6/15) of the patients. Conclusions: The preliminary results indicate a certain level of efficacy and manageable safety. Based on these findings, the study will continue to enroll up to 30 participants. Clinical trial information: NCT05806671 .

AFNT-211: A phase 1 study of autologous CD4+ and CD8+ T cells engineered to express a high avidity HLA-A*11:01-restricted, KRAS G12V-specific, transgenic TCR, a CD8α/β coreceptor, and a FAS41BB switch receptor in patients with advanced/metastatic solid tumors.

TPS8650 Background: Activating mutations in KRAS (including KRAS G12V) are well-described oncogenic drivers in solid tumors. Patients with KRAS driver mutations have a poor prognosis, and most KRAS-mutated cancers lack effective therapies. T cell receptor (TCR)-T cell therapies targeting mutant KRAS have demonstrated proof of concept in the clinic, but duration of response remains a challenge. AFNT-211 represents a novel strategy to address the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment and improve response rate and duration in solid tumors. AFNT-211 autologous CD4+ and CD8+ T cells are engineered to express a high avidity HLA-A*11:01-restricted, KRAS G12V-specific, transgenic TCR; the wildtype CD8α/β coreceptor; and a FAS-41BB switch receptor. The intended mechanism of action is recognition and elimination of KRAS G12V-mutated tumor cells by AFNT-211. AFNT-211 is designed to enhance anti-tumor activity via the following mechanisms of action as shown in preclinical models: (1) the CD8α/β coreceptor enables MHC-I– restricted TCR recognition of the KRAS G12V target by CD4+ T cells; (2) engaging CD4+ helper T cell responses drives enhanced CD8+ T cell cytotoxic activity and prevents T cell exhaustion; (3) the FAS-41BB chimeric switch receptor drives increased T cell activity, circumventing native FAS apoptotic signaling. Methods: This ongoing Phase 1, first-in-human, multicenter, open-label study of AFNT-211 (1) evaluates safety/tolerability, (2) determines the optimal biological dose (OBD) and recommended Phase 2 dose (RP2D), and (3) assesses preliminary antitumor activity. The study consists of 2 parts: dose escalation and dose expansion. Dose escalation is guided by the Bayesian optimal interval Phase 1/2 (BOIN12) design to determine the OBD. The BOIN12 design quantifies the desirability of a dose in terms of toxicity-efficacy tradeoff and adaptively allocates patients to the dose with the highest estimated desirability. The RP2D will be selected based on the BOIN12 design and the totality of benefit/risk assessment. Patients enrolling in dose expansion will be treated at the OBD/RP2D in indication-specific cohorts. This study is conducted in patients aged ≥ 18 years who are HLA-A*11:01-positive with advanced/metastatic solid tumors harboring a KRAS G12V mutation, and intolerance of/progression on at least 1 prior systemic therapy. Patients undergo leukapheresis to collect T cells for the manufacturing of AFNT-211 and receive lymphodepleting chemotherapy prior to AFNT-211 infusion. This is followed by a 28-day dose-limiting toxicity observation period (dose escalation only) and a post-treatment follow-up period for 24 months/ until disease progression. The study is open for recruitment in the United States. Clinical trial information: NCT06105021 .

Bayesian Optimal Designs for Multi-Arm Multi-Stage Phase II Randomized Clinical Trials with Multiple Endpoints

There is a growing need to evaluate of multiple competing drugs in phase II trials where the number of patients is often limited, and simultaneous assessment of both efficacy and toxicity is crucial. To avoid the waste of research resources, it is indeed more efficient to screen multiple drugs at once in a platform phase II setting. We aim to adapt the Bayesian optimal phase II (BOP2) design to multi-arm trials for both uncontrolled and controlled settings. The binary efficacy and toxicity endpoints are modeled by a Dirichlet distribution as a vector of four outcomes. Posterior marginal distributions at each analysis are used to derive the monitoring threshold that varies during the trial. We control the family-wise Type I error rate for multiple comparison against a common reference value or a shared control. We conduct simulation studies under both uncontrolled and controlled settings to evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed design. Our simulations demonstrate that the design exhibits better operating characteristics compared to a design using a constant threshold and is less sensitive to changes in accrual rate relative to what was planned. The design had promising operating characteristics and could be used in phase II oncology clinical trials for evaluating multiple drugs at a time.

Abstract PO1-06-12: Phase II study of sitravatinib plus tislelizumab with or without nab-paclitaxel in patients with locally recurrent or metastatic triple negative breast cancer

Abstract Background: The combination of a PD-(L)1 inhibitor plus chemotherapy demonstrated promising anti-tumor activity as first-line therapy for patients (pts) with locally recurrent inoperable or metastatic PD-L1 positive triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). However, for pts without PD-L1 expression and for those who have failed prior lines of treatment, therapeutic options are still limited. This multi-cohort, phase II trial aimed to evaluate the safety and antitumor activity of 70 mg (cohort A) or 100 mg (cohort B) sitravatinib plus tislelizumab in pts with locally recurrent or metastatic TNBC, and their combination (70 mg sitravatinib plus tislelizumab) with nab-paclitaxel in untreated locally recurrent inoperable or metastatic TNBC pts (cohort C). The efficacy of sitravatinib plus tislelizumab in cohort A and B has been reported with objective response rate (ORR) of 38.1% and 45.0%, respectively. Herein, the preliminary results of cohort C and updated results of cohort A and B were reported. Methods: Pts with untreated locally inoperable or metastatic TNBC were included in cohort C and received 70 mg sitravatinib orally once daily plus 200 mg tislelizumab intravenously on day 1 and 100mg/m2 nab-paclitaxel on days 1 and 8 every three weeks until disease progression or intolerable toxicity. The primary endpoint was ORR. Secondary endpoints included disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS), duration of response (DOR), 1-year overall survival (OS) rate and safety/tolerability. Based on Simon’s two-stage design, > 9 responders were need in stage 1 (n=18) for the study to continue, and >19 responders were needed by the end of study (n=35) to demonstrate statistical superiority with sitravatinib plus tislelizumab and nab-paclitaxel (assumed to be around 65%) to a historical control of 46% (1-sided alpha of 0.1, power of 80%). Updated analyses were provided for cohort A (Simon’s 2 stage design) and B (Bayesian optimal phase II design). Results: Among the 18 pts in stage 1 of cohort C, 12 of them achieved confirmed response, and therefore the study proceeded to the enrollment in stage 2. As of April 30, 2023, a total of 32 pts were enrolled, with a median age of 51 years. Among the 23 efficacy evaluable pts, unconfirmed ORR was 87.0% (95% CI 66.4-97.2) (including 3 CRs and 17 PRs), with 7 pts not reaching next tumor assessment after reaching CR/PR, and confirmed ORR was 52.2% (95% CI 30.6-73.2). DCR was 95.7%. Any grade of treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) occurred in 31 (96.9%) pts, and grade ≥3 TRAEs occurred in 5 (15.6%) pts. One (3.1%) patient experienced grade ≥3 immune-related adverse events. SAEs were reported in 3 (9.4%) pts. At the data cut-off date, the median follow-up duration for cohort A and B was 20.4 (range 1.3–24.3) months and 13.3 (range 5.1-19.1) months, respectively. The median PFS in cohort A was 8.2 (95% CI 2.8-12.4) months, and in cohort B was 5.4 (95% CI 4.2-10.9) months. Median OS was not reached in both cohorts. RNA-seq analysis showed that the suppression of immune regulatory pathways and the activation of metabolic pathways promoted early progression. Besides, baseline angiogenesis associated pathway held the potential to predict the favorable response to tislelizumab plus sitravatinib. Conclusion: In the first-line treatment of locally recurrent or metastatic TNBC, preliminary analysis of cohort C showed that sitravatinib combined with tislelizumab and nab-paclitaxel had promising anti-tumor activity with a high ORR, and the combination was generally well tolerated. In TNBC pts with less than three lines of therapy, the chemotherapy-free regimen with sitravatinib plus tislelizumab demonstrated promising PFS after a longer follow-up duration. Citation Format: Lei Fan, Xiyu Liu, Ying Xu, Xinyi Sui, Wenjuan Zhang, Linxiaoxi Ma, Xi Jin, Song-Yang Wu, Han Wang, Yi Xiao, Li Chen, Jiong Wu, Ke-da Yu, Guangyu Liu, Xin Hu, Zhonghua Wang, Yi-Zhou Jiang, Zhi-Ming Shao. Phase II study of sitravatinib plus tislelizumab with or without nab-paclitaxel in patients with locally recurrent or metastatic triple negative breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO1-06-12.

Abstract CT289: A phase II study of Tucatinib and Ado-trastuzumab Emtansine (T-DM1) in patients with HER2-positive metastatic solid tumors and metastases to brain (TUCATEMEB)

Abstract Background: HER2 overexpression or amplification is a validated prognostic and predictive biomarker for treatments in several tumor types. The development of brain metastases is an unfortunate and common complication in patients with metastatic cancer and the incidence of brain metastases continues to grow as advances in cancer treatment extend the survival. Unfortunately many of the clinical trials still exclude patients with brain metastases. Tucatinib is a selective small molecule HER2 inibitor that has shown intracranial activity and it is approved with trastuzumab and capecitabine for treatment of patients with breast cancer including with active brain metastases. Tucatinib showed significant preclinical and clinical antitumor activity in combination with other HER2-targeted therapies, including T-DM1 in breast and other cancers. We hypothesize that the combination of tucatinib and T-DM1 will be a safe and effective treatment in HER2-positive (+) metastatic solid tumors that have metastasized to the brain. To test this hypothesis, we are conducting a Phase II Study of Tucatinib and T-DM1 in Patients with HER2+ Metastatic Solid Tumors and Metastases to Brain (TUCATEMEB). Methods: Eligible adult patients with HER2-positive solid tumors and active brain metastases (with at least one untreated brain lesion ≥0.5 cm and <3.0 cm) will be enrolled in the study. HER2 positivity is defined as HER2 overexpression by immunohistochemistry 3+ or 2+ and fluorescence in situ hybridization positive and/or HER2 amplification by in situ hybridization or next-generation sequencing and/or activating ERBB2 mutation. Patients will receive the study treatment in 21-day cycles: Tucatinib 300 mg orally twice daily; T-DM1 3.6 mg/kg intravenously on Day 1. The primary objective is to determine the intracranial antitumor activity of the tucatinib and T-DM1 combination per the modified RECIST in patients with HER2+ metastatic solid tumors and brain metastases. The secondary objectives are to determine the intracranial antitumor activity per the RANO-BM criteria; to evaluate the safety and tolerability, the duration of intracranial response, the overall survival, the progression free survival, the systemic antitumor activity and clinical benefit rate in patients with HER2+ metastatic solid tumors and brain metastases. Exploratory objectives are to assess predictive and pharmacodynamic markers of response and to corelate them with clinical and molecular characteristics. The efficacy endpoint will be monitored using the Bayesian optimal phase 2 BOP2 design and safety and tolerability will be monitored based on Bayesian posterior probability. Restaging brain MRI and systemic scans will be performed every 6 weeks for the first 12 weeks, and every 9 weeks thereafter. The trial opened in May 2023 and is enrolling patients (NCT05673928). Citation Format: Ecaterina E. Dumbrava, Amber M. Kennon, Rashmi K. Murthy, Emma J. Montazari, Hussein Tawbi, Jing Li, Frederick F. Lang, Gisela Sanchez, Jianbo Wang, Isabella C. Glitza, Barbara J. O'Brien, Thomas Beckham, Todd Swanson, Martin C. Tom, Uyen M. Vu, Tanisha T. Darko, Tiantian Cai, Komal Shah, Funda Meric-Bernstam, Jordi Rodon. A phase II study of Tucatinib and Ado-trastuzumab Emtansine (T-DM1) in patients with HER2-positive metastatic solid tumors and metastases to brain (TUCATEMEB) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 2 (Late-Breaking, Clinical Trial, and Invited Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(7_Suppl):Abstract nr CT289.

Abstract CT076: AFNT-211: A phase1 study of autologous CD4+ and CD8+ T cells engineered to express a high avidity HLA-A*11:01-restricted, KRAS G12V-specific, transgenic TCR; CD8α/β coreceptor; and a FAS41BB switch receptor in patients with advanced/metastatic solid tumors

Abstract Background: Activating mutations in KRAS (including KRAS G12V) are well-described oncogenic drivers in solid tumors. Patients with KRAS driver mutations have a poor prognosis, and most KRAS-mutated cancers lack effective therapies. T cell receptor (TCR)-T cell therapies targeting mutant KRAS have demonstrated proof of concept in the clinic, but duration of response remains a challenge. AFNT-211 represents a novel strategy to address the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment and improve response rate and duration in solid tumors. Rationale: AFNT-211 autologous CD4+ and CD8+ T cells are engineered to express a high avidity HLA-A*11:01restricted, KRAS G12V-specific, transgenic TCR; the wildtype CD8α/β coreceptor; and a FAS-41BB switch receptor. The intended mechanism of action is recognition and elimination of KRAS G12V-mutated tumor cells by AFNT-211. AFNT-211 is designed to enhance anti-tumor activity via the following mechanisms of action as shown in preclinical models: (1) the CD8α/β coreceptor enables MHC-I-‍restricted TCR recognition of the KRAS G12V target by CD4+ T cells; (2) engaging CD4+ helper T cell responses drives enhanced CD8+ T cell cytotoxic activity and prevents T cell exhaustion; (3) the FAS-41BB chimeric switch receptor drives increased T cell activity, circumventing native FAS apoptotic signaling. Methods: This ongoing Phase 1, first-in-human, multicenter, open-label study of AFNT-211 (1) evaluates safety/tolerability, (2) determines the optimal biological dose (OBD) and recommended Phase 2 dose (RP2D), and (3) assesses preliminary antitumor activity. The study consists of 2 parts: dose escalation and dose expansion. Dose escalation is guided by the Bayesian optimal interval Phase 1/2 (BOIN12) design to determine the OBD. The BOIN12 design quantifies the desirability of a dose in terms of toxicity-efficacy tradeoff and adaptively allocates patients to the dose with the highest estimated desirability. The RP2D will be selected based on the BOIN12 design and the totality of benefit/risk assessment. Patients enrolling in dose expansion will be treated at the OBD/RP2D in indication-specific cohorts. This study is conducted in patients aged ≥ 18 years who are HLA-A*11:01-positive with advanced/metastatic solid tumors harboring a KRAS G12V mutation, and intolerance of/progression on at least 1 prior systemic therapy. Patients undergo leukapheresis to collect T cells for the manufacturing of AFNT-211 and receive lymphodepleting chemotherapy prior to AFNT-211 infusion. This is followed by a 28-day dose-limiting toxicity observation period (dose escalation only) and a post-treatment follow-up period for 24 months/until disease progression. The study is open for recruitment in the United States (NCT06105021). Citation Format: Shaunica Mitchell, Binaish Khan, Francis Payumo, E. Gabriela Chiorean, Zhubin Gahvari, J. Randolph Hecht, Michael Hurwitz, Rom Leidner, Heinz-Josef Lenz, Meredith Pelster, Salman Punekar, Adam Schoenfeld, Dan Zhao, Markus Vallaster, Dirk Nagorsen. AFNT-211: A phase1 study of autologous CD4+ and CD8+ T cells engineered to express a high avidity HLA-A*11:01-restricted, KRAS G12V-specific, transgenic TCR; CD8α/β coreceptor; and a FAS41BB switch receptor in patients with advanced/metastatic solid tumors [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 2 (Late-Breaking, Clinical Trial, and Invited Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(7_Suppl):Abstract nr CT076.

Demonstrating Bayesian quantum phase estimation with quantum error detection

Quantum phase estimation (QPE) serves as a building block of many different quantum algorithms and finds important applications in computational chemistry problems. Despite the rapid development of quantum hardware, experimental demonstration of QPE for chemistry problems remains challenging due to its large circuit depth and the lack of quantum resources to protect the hardware from noise with fully fault-tolerant protocols. In the present work, we take a step towards fault-tolerant quantum computing by demonstrating a QPE algorithm on a Quantinuum trapped-ion computer. We employ a Bayesian approach to QPE and introduce a routine for optimal parameter selection, which we combine with a [[n+2,n,2]] quantum error detection code carefully tailored to the hardware capabilities. As a simple quantum chemistry example, we take a hydrogen molecule represented by a two-qubit Hamiltonian and estimate its ground state energy using our QPE protocol. In the experiment, we use the quantum circuits containing as many as 920 physical two-qubit gates to estimate the ground state energy within 6×10−3 hartree of the exact value. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Retraction Note: Network security situation analysis based on a dynamic Bayesian network and phase space reconstruction

Retraction Note: Network security situation analysis based on a dynamic Bayesian network and phase space reconstruction