Bayesian Forecasting Research Articles

Comparison of Vancomycin AUC24 Calculation Methods for Neonates and Infants.

For neonates and infants receiving intermittent vancomycin infusions, the area under the concentration-timecurve during 24 h (AUC24) is often estimated with Bayesian forecasting using one or more measured vancomycin concentrations. When practical peak and trough concentrations are measured at steady state, AUC24 can also be calculated with first-order steady-state equations for a one-compartment model (Sawchuk-Zaske method), but previously this method has been applied only for adults. The objective of this studywas to compare AUC24 values obtained with the Sawchuk-Zaske method and two Bayesian models. AUC24 values were estimated retrospectively for 18 neonates and infants with steady-state peak and trough concentrations using traditional compartmental analysis with a one-compartment model (reference method), the Sawchuk-Zaske method, and Bayesian forecasting with two previously published models. In Bayesian forecasting, both original and modified residual error models were used. In the modified models, the residual error was reduced by setting the additive residual error to zero and the proportional error to 15%. AUC24 estimates obtained with the Sawchuk-Zaske method differed -2.7 to 0.9% from the reference method. When both peak and trough concentrations were used in Bayesian forecasting, 61% and 33% of AUC24 estimates obtained with two original models differed less than 15% from the reference method, and these fractions increased to 83% and 72% with the modified models, respectively. When practical peak and trough concentrations are measured at steady state, the simple Sawchuk-Zaske method is very useful for AUC24 estimation in neonates and infants. In Bayesian forecasting, the reduced residual error model can be used to improve the model fit.

Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Tacrolimus: A Systematic Review of Population Pharmacokinetic Models and a Benchmark Study of Software Tools.

Tacrolimus is an immunosuppressant commonly administered after solid organ transplantation. It is characterized by a narrow therapeutic window and high variability in exposure, demanding personalized dosing. In recent years, population pharmacokinetic models have been suggested to guide model-informed precision dosing of tacrolimus. We aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of population pharmacokinetic models and model-informed precision dosing software modules of tacrolimus in all solid organ transplant settings, including a simulation-based investigation of the impact of covariates on exposure and target attainment. We performed a systematic literature search to identify population pharmacokinetic models of tacrolimus in solid organ transplant recipients. We integrated selected population pharmacokinetic models into an interactive software tool that allows dosing simulations, Bayesian forecasting, and investigation of the impact of covariates on exposure and target attainment. We conducted a web survey amongst model-informed precision dosing software tool providers and benchmarked publicly available tools in terms of models, target populations, and clinical integration. We identified 80 population pharmacokinetic models, including 44 one-compartment and 36 two-compartment models. The most frequently retained covariates on clearance and distribution parameters were cytochrome P450 3A5 polymorphisms and body weight, respectively. Our simulation tool, hosted at https://lpmx.shinyapps.io/tacrolimus/ , allows thorough investigation of the impact of covariates on exposure and target attainment. We identified 15 model-informed precision dosing software tool providers, of which ten offer a tacrolimus solution and nine completed the survey. Our work provides a comprehensive overview of the landscape of available tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic models and model-informed precision dosing software modules. Our simulation tool allows an interactive thorough exploration of covariates on exposure and target attainment.

A small step toward precision dosing of caffeine in preterm infants: An external evaluation of published population pharmacokinetic models

BackgroundSeveral population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models of caffeine in preterm infants have been published, but the extrapolation of these models to facilitate model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) in clinical practice is uncertain. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate their predictive performance using an external, independent dataset. MethodsData used for external evaluation were based on an independent cohort of preterm infants. Currently available PopPK models for caffeine in preterm infants were identified and re-established. Prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics were used to assess model predictability. The influence of prior information was assessed using Bayesian forecasting. Results120 plasma samples from 76 preterm infants were included in the evaluation dataset. Twelve PopPK models of caffeine in preterm infants were re-established based on our previously published study. Although two models showed superior predictive performance, none of the 12 PopPK models met all the clinical acceptance criteria of these external evaluation items. Besides, the external predictive performances of most models were unsatisfactory in prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics. Nevertheless, the application of Bayesian forecasting significantly improved the predictive performance, even with only one prior observation. ConclusionsTwo models that included the most covariates had the best predictive performance across all external assessments. Inclusion of different covariates, heterogeneity of preterm infant characteristics, and different study designs influenced predictive performance. Thorough evaluation is needed before these PopPK models can be implemented in clinical practice. The implementation of MIPD for caffeine in preterm infants could benefit from the combination of PopPK models and Bayesian forecasting as a helpful tool.

Fixed parameters in the population pharmacokinetic modeling of valproic acid might not be suitable: external validation in Chinese adults with epilepsy or after neurosurgery.

This study aims to assess the predictive performance of published valproic acid (VPA) population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models using an external data set in Chinese adults with epilepsy or after neurosurgery. A total of 384 concentrations from 290 Chinese adults with epilepsy or after neurosurgery were used for external validation. Data on published VPA PPK models were extracted from the literature. Prediction-based diagnostics (such as F20 and F30), simulation-based diagnostics, and Bayesian forecasting were used to evaluate the predictability of models. The results of prediction-based diagnostics of all models were unsatisfactory. Models B, F, and H showed the best prediction performance in simulation-based diagnostics and Bayesian forecasting, demonstrating superior precision and accuracy. Bayesian forecasting demonstrated significant improvements in the model predictability. The published PPK models showed extensive variation in predictive performance for extrapolation among Chinese adults with epilepsy or after neurosurgery patients. Fixed parameters of Vd and Ka in the PPK modeling of VPA might be the reason for the unsatisfied predictive performance. Bayesian forecasting significantly improved model predictability and may help to individualize VPA dosing.

Predictive performance of multi-model approaches for model-informed precision dosing of piperacillin in critically ill patients

ObjectivesPiperacillin (PIP)/tazobactam is a frequently prescribed antibiotic; however, over- or underdosing may contribute to toxicity, therapeutic failure, and development of antimicrobial resistance. An external evaluation of 24 published PIP-models demonstrated that model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) can enhance target attainment. Employing various candidate models, this study aimed to assess the predictive performance of different MIPD-approaches comparing (i) a single-model approach, (ii) a model selection algorithm (MSA) and (iii) a model averaging algorithm (MAA). MethodsPrecision, accuracy and expected target attainment, considering either initial (B1) or initial and secondary (B2) therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM)-samples per patient, were assessed in a multicentre dataset (561 patients, 11 German centres, 3654 TDM-samples). ResultsThe results demonstrated a slight superiority in predictive performance using MAA in B1, regardless of the candidate models, compared to MSA and the best single models (MAA, MSA, best single models: inaccuracy ±3%, ±10%, ±8%; imprecision: <25%, <31%, <28%; expected target attainment >77%, >71%, >73%). The inclusion of a second TDM-sample notably improved precision and target attainment for all MIPD-approaches, particularly within the context of MSA and most of the single models. The expected target attainment is maximized (up to >90%) when the TDM-sample is integrated within 24 h. ConclusionsIn conclusion, MAA streamlines MIPD by reducing the risk of selecting an inappropriate model for specific patients. Therefore, MIPD of PIP using MAA implicates further optimisation of antibiotic exposure in critically ill patients, by improving predictive performance with only one sample available for Bayesian forecasting, safety, and usability in clinical practice.

Switching Vancomycin Monitoring From Trough Concentration to Area Under the Curve Estimation by Bayesian Forecasting: A Short Communication on a Cost-Benefit Study in Resource-Limited Settings.

This study was conducted to evaluate the cost-benefit indicators of a vancomycin monitoring protocol based on area under the curve estimation using commercial Bayesian software. This quasi-experimental study included patients who were aged >18 years with a vancomycin prescription for >24 hours. Patients who were terminally ill or those with acute kidney injury (AKI) ≤24 hours were excluded. During the preintervention period, doses were adjusted based on the trough concentration target of 15-20 mg/L, whereas the postintervention period target was 400-500 mg × h/L for the area under the curve. The medical team was responsible for deciding to stop the antimicrobial prescription without influence from the therapeutic drug monitoring team. The main outcomes were the incidence of AKI and length of stay. Cost-benefit simulation was performed after statistical analysis. There were 96 patients in the preintervention group and 110 in the postintervention group. The AKI rate decreased from 20% (n = 19) to 6% (n = 6; P = 0.003), whereas the number of vancomycin serum samples decreased from 5 (interquartile range: 2-7) to 2 (interquartile range: 1-3) examinations per patient ( P < 0.001). The mean length of hospital stay for patients was 26.19 days after vancomycin prescription, compared with 17.13 days for those without AKI ( P = 0.003). At our institution, the decrease in AKI rate and reduced length of stay boosted yearly savings of up to US$ 369,000 for 300 patients receiving vancomycin therapy. Even in resource-limited settings, a commercial Bayesian forecasting-based protocol for vancomycin is important for determining cost-benefit outcomes.

Individualized, dynamic, and full-course vancomycin dosing prediction: a study on the customized dose model.

The single-point trough-based therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and Bayesian forecasting approaches are still limited in individualized and dynamic vancomycin delivery. Until recently, there has not yet been enough focus on the direct integration of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) and TDM to construct a customized dose model (CDM) for vancomycin to achieve individualized, dynamic, and full-course dose prediction from empirical to follow-up treatment. This study sought to establish CDM for vancomycin, test its performance and superiority in clinical efficacy prediction, formulate a CDM-driven full-course dosage prediction strategy to overcome the above challenge, and predict the empirical vancomycin dosages for six Staphylococci populations and four strains in patients with various creatinine clearance rates (CLcr). The PK/PD and concentration models derived from our earlier research were used to establish CDM. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with the area under ROC curve (AUCR) as the primary endpoint, for 21 retrospective cases was applied to test the performance and superiority of CDM in clinical efficacy prediction by comparison to the current frequently-used dose model (FDM). A model with an AUCR of at least 0.8 was considered acceptable. Based on the availability of TDM, the strategy of CDM-driven individualized, dynamic, and full-course dose prediction for vancomycin therapy was formulated. Based on the CDM, Monte Carlo simulation was used to predict the empirical vancomycin dosages for the target populations and bacteria. Four CDMs and the strategy of CDM-driven individualized, dynamic, and full-course dose prediction for vancomycin therapy from empirical to follow-up treatment were constructed. Compared with FDM, CDM showed a greater AUCR value (0.807 vs. 0.688) in clinical efficacy prediction. The empirical vancomycin dosages for six Staphylococci populations and four strains in patients with various CLcr were predicted. CDM is a competitive individualized dose model. It compensates for the drawbacks of the existing TDM technology and Bayesian forecasting and offers a straightforward and useful supplemental approach for individualized and dynamic vancomycin delivery. Through mathematical modeling of the vancomycin dosage, this study achieved the goal of predicting doses individually, dynamically, and throughout, thus promoting "mathematical knowledge transfer and application" and also providing reference for quantitative and personalized research on similar drugs.

Sources of seasonal water supply forecast uncertainty during snow drought in the Sierra Nevada

AbstractUncertainty attribution in water supply forecasting is crucial to improve forecast skill and increase confidence in seasonal water management planning. We develop a framework to quantify fractional forecast uncertainty and partition it between (1) snowpack quantification methods, (2) variability in post‐forecast precipitation, and (3) runoff model errors. We demonstrate the uncertainty framework with statistical runoff models in the upper Tuolumne and Merced River basins (California, USA) using snow observations at two endmember spatial resolutions: a simple snow pillow index and full‐catchment snow water equivalent (SWE) maps at 50 m resolution from the Airborne Snow Observatories. Bayesian forecast simulations demonstrate a nonlinear decrease in the skill of statistical water supply forecasts during warm snow droughts, when a low fraction of winter precipitation remains as SWE. Forecast skill similarly decreases during dry snow droughts, when winter precipitation is low. During a shift away from snow‐dominance, the uncertainty of forecasts using snow pillow data increases about 1.9 times faster than analogous forecasts using full‐catchment SWE maps in the study area. Replacing the snow pillow index with full‐catchment SWE data reduces statistical forecast uncertainty by 39% on average across all tested climate conditions. Attributing water supply forecast uncertainty to reducible error sources reveals opportunities to improve forecast reliability in a warmer future climate.

Fully Bayesian forecasts with evidence networks

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations rather than picking fiducial values. However, this is typically computationally infeasible with current methods for forecasts of an experiment’s ability to distinguish between competing models. We thus propose a novel simulation-based methodology capable of providing expedient and rigorous Bayesian model comparison forecasts without relying on restrictive assumptions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Vancomycin: An analysis and evaluation of eight population pharmacokinetic models for clinical application in general adult population.

Based on the recent guidelines for vancomycin therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), the area under the curve to minimum inhibitory concentration ratio was to be employed combined with the usage of population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model for dosing adaptation. Yet, deploying these models in a clinical setting requires an external evaluation of their performance. This study aimed to evaluate existing vancomycin popPK models from the literature for the use in TDM within the general patient population in a clinical setting. The models under external evaluation were chosen based on a review of literature covering vancomycin popPK models developed in general adult populations. Patients' data were collected from Charles-Le Moyne Hospital (CLMH). The external evaluation was performed with NONMEM® (v7.5). Additional analyses such as evaluating the impact of number of samples on external evaluation, Bayesian forecasting, and a priori dosing regimen simulations were performed on the best performing model. Eight popPK models were evaluated with an independent dataset that included 40 patients and 252 samples. The model developed by Goti and colleagues demonstrated superior performance in diagnostic plots and population predictive performance, with bias and inaccuracy values of 0.251% and 22.7%, respectively, and for individual predictive performance, bias and inaccuracy were -4.90% and 12.1%, respectively. When limiting the independent dataset to one or two samples per patient, the Goti model exhibited inadequate predictive performance for inaccuracy, with values exceeding 30%. Moreover, the Goti model is suitable for Bayesian forecasting with at least two samples as prior for the prediction of the next trough concentration. Furthermore, the vancomycin dosing regimen that would maximize therapeutic targets of area under the curve to minimum inhibitory concentration ratio (AUC24/MIC) and trough concentrations (Ctrough) for the Goti model was 20 mg/kg/dose twice daily. Considering the superior predictive performance and potential for Bayesian forecasting in the Goti model, future research aims to test its applicability in clinical settings at CLMH, both in a priori and a posteriori scenario.

External validation of population pharmacokinetic models of tacrolimus in Thai adult liver transplant recipients.

Several population pharmacokinetic models of tacrolimus in liver transplant patients were built, and their predictability was evaluated in their settings. However, the extrapolation in the prediction was unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of published tacrolimus models in adult liver transplant recipients using data from the Thai population as an external dataset. The selected published models were systematically searched and evaluated for their quality. The external dataset of patients who underwent the first liver transplant and received immediate-release tacrolimus was used to assess the predictive performance of each selected model. Trough concentrations between 3 and 6months were retrospectively collected to evaluate the predictability of each model using prediction-based diagnostics, simulation-based diagnostics, and Bayesian forecasting. Sixty-seven patients with 360 trough concentrations and eight selected published models were included in this study. None of the models met the predictive precision criteria in prediction-based diagnostics. Meanwhile, four published population pharmacokinetic models showed a normal distribution in NPDE testing. Regarding Bayesian forecasting, all models improved their forecasts with at least one prior information data point. Bayesian forecasting is more accurate and precise than other testing methods for predicting drug concentrations. However, none of the evaluated models provides satisfactory predictive performance for generalization to Thai liver transplant patients. This underscores the need for future research to develop population PK models tailored to the Thai population. Such efforts should consider the inclusion of nonlinear pharmacokinetics and region-specific factors, including genetic variability, to improve model accuracy and applicability.

Development of a Plasminogen Population PK model supporting prophylactic replacement therapy for Plasminogen deficient patients within the WAPPS-Hemo platform.

Plasminogen deficiency is an ultra rare disease whose patients may develop ligneous lesions if untreated. Prophylactic replacement therapy with plasma derived plasminogen, Ryplazim, is efficient in treating lesions and could benefit from pharmacokinetic (PK) tailoring. The objectives of this study are to develop, evaluate and integrate into the WAPPS-Hemo platform a Population PK model supporting prophylactic replacement therapy for Plasminogen deficient patients. Population PK modelling and evaluations followed the same protocol performed for factor VIII and IX concentrates. Limited sampling analysis used dosing and sampling scenarios in accordance with recommended treatment for Ryplazim. The population PK model, derived from 16 participants included in previous clinical studies, was a 2-compartment model whose variability was best described by fat-free mass. Evaluations showed that the model described well the data and Bayesian forecasting in limited sampling environment led to acceptable precision for PK parameters relevant to plasminogen treatment. The model was integrated into the WAPPS-Hemo webservice to help individualize prophylactic treatment in plasminogen deficient patients. Prospective PK data to be collected through the WAPPS-Hemo database will be used to better understand plasminogen PK and improve patient care.

A systematic evaluation of population pharmacokinetic models for polymyxin B in patients with liver and/or kidney dysfunction.

Polymyxin B (PMB) is considered a last-line treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) gram-negative bacterial infections. Model-informed precision dosing with population pharmacokinetics (PopPK) models could help to individualize PMB dosing regimens and improve therapy. However, the external prediction ability of the established PopPK models has not been fully elaborated. This study aimed to systemically evaluate eleven PMB PopPK models from ten published literature based on a new independent population, which was divided into four different populations, patients with liver dysfunction, kidney dysfunction, liver and kidney dysfunction, and normal liver and kidney function. The whole data set consisted of 146 patients with 391 PMB concentrations. The prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics and Bayesian forecasting were conducted to evaluate model predictability. In the overall evaluation process, none of the models exhibited satisfactory predictive ability in both prediction- and simulation-based diagnostic simultaneously. However, the evaluation of the models in the subgroup of patients with normal liver and kidney function revealed improved predictive performance compared to those with liver and/or kidney dysfunction. Bayesian forecasting demonstrated enhanced predictability with the incorporation of two to three prior observations. The external evaluation highlighted a lack of consistency between the prediction results of published models and the external validation dataset. Nonetheless, Bayesian forecasting holds promise in improving the predictive performance of the models, and feedback from therapeutic drug monitoring is crucial in optimizing individual dosing regimens.

Bayesian Forecasting of Mortality Rates for Small Areas Using Spatiotemporal Models

Estimation and prediction of subnational mortality rates for small areas are essential planning tools for studying health inequalities. Standard methods do not perform well when data are noisy, a typical behavior of subnational datasets. Thus, reliable estimates are difficult to obtain. I present a Bayesian hierarchical model framework for prediction of mortality rates at a small or subnational level. By combining ideas from demography and epidemiology, the classical mortality modeling framework is extended to include an additional spatial component capturing regional heterogeneity. Information is pooled across neighboring regions and smoothed over time and age. To make predictions more robust and address the issue of model selection, a Bayesian version of stacking is considered using leave-future-out validation. I apply this method to forecast mortality rates for 96 regions in Bavaria, Germany, disaggregated by age and sex. Uncertainty surrounding the forecasts is provided in terms of prediction intervals. Using posterior predictive checks, I show that the models capture the essential features and are suitable to forecast the data at hand. On held-out data, my predictions outperform those of standard models lacking a regional component.

Effects of behavioral bias regarding demand forecasting in a competitive market

AbstractConsiderable human judgment is involved in demand forecasting. When managers judge demands under uncertainty, they inevitably use signals to update their demand information. These signals are seldom perfect; hence, managers hold behavioral bias about the signal fidelity, that is, over‐ or under‐estimating the signal fidelity. This article models managers' behavioral bias about signal fidelity in Bayesian demand forecasting and explores its impact on competitive firms. We find that no matter whether the competitor's manager is unbiased or biased, a firm can benefit from its manager's slight overestimation, but the competitor can benefit from the firm's manager's underestimation. However, when one firm's manager is biased, improving the signal fidelity may not constantly improve firms' profits, revealing the potential risk of behavioral bias on the efficiency of the forecasting systems. We further consider the diversity of biased managers and the information asymmetry regarding the bias. Except that the benefits of behavioral bias exist, we additionally find that managers' heterogeneous behavioral bias can form a hedge effect and bring a win‐win situation. Under asymmetric information, managers' inference bias on the competitor's type may benefit firms by easing the negative impact of managers' behavioral bias about signal fidelity. We finally analyze the social welfare and consumer surplus, check the robustness of the main results and deliver additional findings by considering competing firms, different signal fidelity measures, and the signal‐dependent behavioral bias.

Predictive performance of pharmacokinetic-guided prophylactic dosing of factor concentrates in hemophilia A and B

BackgroundPharmacokinetic (PK)-guided dosing is used to individualize factor (F)VIII and FIX replacement therapy. ObjectivesThis study investigates the reliability and feasibility of PK-guided prophylactic dosing of factor concentrates in hemophilia A and B. MethodsIn this multicenter, prospective cohort study, people of all ages with hemophilia received prophylactic treatment with factor concentrates based on individual PK parameters. During follow-up, at least 4 measured FVIII/FIX levels per patient were compared with corresponding predicted levels obtained by Bayesian forecasting. Predictive performance was defined as adequate when ≥80% of measured FVIII/FIX levels were within ±25% of prediction (relative error). Additionally, mean absolute error and mean error were calculated. In post hoc analyses, predictive performance was assessed allowing maximum absolute errors of 1 (trough), 5 (mid), and 15 (peak) IU/dL. Five-point scale questionnaires addressed feasibility of PK guidance. ResultsWe included 50 patients (median age, 19 years; range: 2-72 years). Median follow-up was 36 weeks. Seventy-one percent of levels (58% trough, 83% mid, and 80% peak) were within ±25% of prediction. Mean absolute errors were 0.8 (trough), 2.0 (mid), and 8.6 (peak) IU/dL. In post hoc analyses, 81% (trough), 96% (mid), and 82% (peak) of levels were within set limits. Patients reported low burden and high satisfaction. ConclusionPK-guided dosing was reliable according to post hoc analyses, based on low absolute errors that were regarded as clinically irrelevant in most cases. The predefined predictive performance was achieved in mid and peak factor levels but not in trough factor levels due to measurement inaccuracy. PK guidance also seemed feasible.

A simulation study on model-informed precision dosing of amikacin for achieving target area under the concentration-time curve.

Amikacin requires therapeutic drug monitoring for optimum efficacy; however, the optimal model-informed precision dosing strategy for the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) of amikacin is uncertain. This simulation study aimed to determine the efficient blood sampling points using the Bayesian forecasting approach for early achievement of the target AUC range for amikacin in critically ill patients. We generated a virtual population of 3000 individuals using 2 validated population pharmacokinetic models identified using a systematic literature search. AUC for each blood sampling point was evaluated using the probability of achieving a ratio of estimated/reference AUC at steady state in the 0.8-1.2 range. On day 1, the 1-point samplings for population pharmacokinetic models showed a priori probabilities of 26.3 and 45.6%, which increased to 47.3 and 94.4% at 23 and 15 h, respectively. Using 2-point sampling at the peak (3 and 4h) and trough (24 h) on day 1, these probabilities further increased to 72.3 and 99.5%, respectively. These probabilities were comparable on days 2 and 3, regardless of 3 and 6 sampling points or estimated glomerular filtration rate. These results indicated the higher predictive accuracy of 2-point sampling than 1-point sampling on day 1 for amikacin AUC estimation. Moreover, 2-point sampling was a more reasonable approach than rich sampling. This study contributes to the development of an efficient model-informed precision dosing strategy for early targeting of amikacin AUC in critically ill patients.

External Evaluation of Population Pharmacokinetic Models for High-Dose Methotrexate in Adult Patients with Hematological Tumors.

Currently, numerous population pharmacokinetic (popPK) models for methotrexate (MTX) have been published for estimating PK parameters and variability. However, it is unclear whether the accuracy of these models is sufficient for clinical application. The aim of this study is to evaluate published models and assess their predictive performance according to the standards of scientific research. A total of 237 samples from 74 adult patients who underwent high-dose MTX (HDMTX) treatment at Shanghai Changzheng Hospital were collected. The software package NONMEM was used to perform an external evaluation for each model, including prediction-based diagnosis, simulation-based diagnosis, and Bayesian forecasting. The simulation-based diagnosis includes normalized prediction distribution error (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC). Following screening, 7 candidate models suitable for external validation were identified for comparison. However, none of these models exhibited excellent predictive performance. Bayesian simulation results indicated that the prediction precision and accuracy of all models significantly improved when incorporating prior concentration information. The published popPK models for MTX exhibit significant differences in their predictive performance, and none of the models were able to accurately predict MTX concentrations in our data set. Therefore, before adopting any model in clinical practice, extensive evaluation should be conducted.

The impact of policy intervention on international wine demand

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China in the short- and long-run, respectively.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method is used in this study to evaluate the short-run causal effect of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China. Second, a Bayesian ensemble method is used to predict 2023–2025 wine exports from Australia to China. The disparity between the forecasts and counterfactual prediction which assumes no anti-dumping duties represents the accumulated impact of the anti-dumping duties in the long run.FindingsThe anti-dumping duties resulted in a significant decline in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China by 92.59%, 99.06% and 90.06%, respectively, in 2021. In the long run, wine exports to China are projected to continue this downward trend, with an average annual growth rate of −21.92%, −38.90% and −9.54% for the three types of wine, respectively. In contrast, the counterfactual prediction indicates an increase of 3.20%, 20.37% and 4.55% for the respective categories. Consequently, the policy intervention is expected to result in a decrease of 96.11%, 93.15% and 84.11% in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China from 2021 to 2025.Originality/valueThe originality of this study lies in the creation of an economic paradigm for assessing policy impacts within the realm of wine economics. Methodologically, it also represents the pioneering application of the DID and Bayesian ensemble forecasting methods within the field of wine economics.

Application of the Hollow-Fiber Infection Model to Personalized Precision Dosing of Isoniazid in a Clinical Setting.

The hollow-fiber infection model (HFIM) is a valuable tool for evaluating pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics relationships and determining the optimal antibiotic dose in monotherapy or combination therapy, but the application for personalized precision medicine in tuberculosis treatment remains limited. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of adjusted antibiotic doses for a tuberculosis patient using HFIM. Model-based Bayesian forecasting was utilized to assess the proposed reduction of the isoniazid dose from 300 mg daily to 150 mg daily in a patient with an ultra-slow-acetylation phenotype. The efficacy of the adjusted 150-mg dose was evaluated in a time-to-kill assay performed using the bacterial isolate Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) H37Ra in a HFIM that mimicked the individual pharmacokinetic profile of the patient. The isoniazid concentration observed in the HFIM adequately reflected the target drug exposures simulated by the model. After 7 days of repeated dose administration, isoniazid killed 4 log10 Mtb CFU/mL in the treatment arm, while the control arm without isoniazid increased 1.6 log10 CFU/mL. Our results provide an example of the utility of the HFIM for predicting the efficacy of specific recommended doses of anti-tuberculosis drugs in real clinical setting.