Bayesian Parameter Estimation Research Articles

Identifying mechanisms and therapeutic targets in muscle using Bayesian parameter estimation with conditional variational autoencoders.

Machine learning techniques have potential to accelerate discoveries in biologically complex systems. However, they require large data sets and can be challenging in high dimensional systems such as cardiac muscle. In this study, we combined experimental measures of cardiac muscle twitch forces with mechanistic simulations and a newly developed mixture of Bayesian inference with neural networks (in autoencoders) to solve the inverse problem of determining the underlying kinetics for observed force generation by cardiac muscle. The autoencoders are trained on millions of simulations spanning parameter spaces that correspond to the mechanochemistry of cardiac sarcomeres. We apply the trained model to experimental data in order to infer parameters that can explain a diseased twitch and ways to recover it.

Rationalised experiment design for parameter estimation with sensitivity clustering

Quantitative experiments are essential for investigating, uncovering, and confirming our understanding of complex systems, necessitating the use of effective and robust experimental designs. Despite generally outperforming other approaches, the broader adoption of model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) has been hindered by oversimplified assumptions and computational overhead. To address this, we present PARameter SEnsitivity Clustering (PARSEC), an MBDoE framework that identifies informative measurable combinations through parameter sensitivity (PS) clustering. We combined PARSEC with a new variant of Approximate Bayesian Computation-based parameter estimation for rapid, automated assessment and ranking of experiment designs. Using two kinetic model systems with distinct dynamical features, we show that PARSEC-based experiments improve the parameter estimation of a complex system. By its inherent formulation, PARSEC can account for experimental restrictions and parameter variability. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong correlation between sample size and the optimal number of PS clusters in PARSEC, offering a novel method to determine the ideal sampling for experiments. This validates our argument for employing parameter sensitivity in experiment design and illustrates the potential to leverage both model architecture and system dynamics to effectively explore the experimental design space.

Identification of Risk Factors for Bus Operation Based on Bayesian Network

Public transit has been continuously developing because of advocacy for low-carbon living, and concerns about its safety have gained prominence. The various factors that constitute the bus operating environment are extremely complex. Although existing research on operational security is crucial, previous studies often fail to fully represent this complexity. In this study, a novel method was proposed to identify the risk factors for bus operations based on a Bayesian network. Our research was based on monitoring data from the public transit system. First, the Tabu Search algorithm was applied to identify the optimal structure of the Bayesian network with the Bayesian Information Criterion. Second, the network parameters were calculated using bus monitoring data based on Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Finally, reasoning was conducted through prediction and diagnosis in the network. Additionally, the most probable explanation of bus operation spatial risk was identified. The results indicated that factors such as speed, traffic volume, isolation measures, intersections, bus stops, and lanes had a significant effect on the spatial risk of bus operation. In conclusion, the study findings can help avert dangers and support decision-making for the operation and management of public transit in metropolitan areas to enhance daily public transit safety.

A new combined analytical–numerical probabilistic method for assessing the impact of DERs on the voltage stability of bulk power systems

The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) and unpredictable loads has increased uncertainty in power systems. Traditional methods struggle to assess performance under these uncertainties, and existing probabilistic methods face challenges with complexity and accuracy. This paper introduces a new combined analytical–numerical probabilistic method to assess the impact of DERs on voltage stability. Using Bayesian Parameter Estimation (BPE), the method derives the analytical properties of random variables (RVs) associated with DERs and loads, obtaining posterior distributions. The Metropolis–Hastings sampling technique then estimates these posteriors numerically, enabling accurate predictions of DERs and load outputs. Voltage stability analysis was performed using the continuation power flow method and validated on the IEEE 59-bus test system in MATLAB/Simulink. The results show that integrating DERs significantly improves voltage stability. The proposed method outperforms the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)-based method in accuracy and computational speed, increasing DERs penetration and voltage stability limits by 3%. It closely matches MCS voltage estimates but requires fewer iterations (500 per loading increment) compared to MCS’s 1000, leading to faster computation times (a few hours to one day versus up to three days for MCS). This method provides an efficient solution for managing uncertainties in power systems.

Impacts of age and BMI on vancomycin model choice in a Bayesian software: Lessons from a very large multi-site retrospective study.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) optimizes drug doses based on pharmacokinetic (PK) model predictions, necessitating careful selection of models tailored to patient characteristics. This study evaluates the predictive performance of various vancomycin PK models across diverse age and BMI categories, drawing insights from a large multi-site database. Adults receiving vancomycin intravenous therapy at United States health systems between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2023, were included. Patient demographics, vancomycin administration records, and therapeutic drug monitoring levels (TDMs) were collected from the InsightRX database. Age and body mass index (BMI)-based subgroups were formed to assess model performance, with predictions made iteratively. The optimal model for each age-BMI subgroup was chosen based on predefined criteria: models were filtered for mean percentage error (MPE) ≤ 20% and normalized root mean squared error (RMSE) < 8 mg/L, and then the most accurate among them was selected. A total of 384,876 treatment courses across 155 US health systems were analyzed, contributing 841,604 TDMs. Eleven models were compared, showing varying accuracy across age-BMI categories (41%-73%), with higher accuracy observed once TDMs were available for Bayesian estimates of individual PK parameters. Models performed more poorly in younger adults compared to older adults, and the optimal model differed depending on age-BMI categories and prediction methods. Notably, in the a priori period, the Colin model performed best in adults aged 18-64 years across most BMI categories; the Goti/Tong model performed best in the older, non-obese adults; and the Hughes model performed best in many of the obese categories. Our study identifies specific vancomycin PK models that demonstrate superior predictions across age-BMI categories in MIPD applications. Our findings underscore the importance of tailored model selection for vancomycin management, especially highlighting the need for improved models in younger adult patients. Further research into the clinical implications of model performance is warranted to enhance patient care outcomes.

Joint modeling of zero-inflated longitudinal measurements and time-to-event outcomes with applications to dynamic prediction.

In this article, we present a joint modeling approach for zero-inflated longitudinal count measurements and time-to-event outcomes. For the longitudinal sub-model, a mixed effects Hurdle model is utilized, incorporating various distributional assumptions such as zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, or zero-inflated generalized Poisson. For the time-to-event sub-model, a Cox proportional hazard model is applied. For the functional form linking the longitudinal outcome history to the hazard of the event, a linear combination is used. This combination is derived from the current values of the linear predictors of Hurdle mixed effects. Some other forms are also considered, including a linear combination of the current slopes of the linear predictors of Hurdle mixed effects as well as the shared random effects. A Markov chain Monte Carlo method is implemented for Bayesian parameter estimation. Dynamic prediction using joint modeling is highly valuable in personalized medicine, as discussed here for joint modeling of zero-inflated longitudinal count measurements and time-to-event outcomes. We assess and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed joint models through extensive simulation studies, with a specific emphasis on parameter estimation and dynamic predictions for both over-dispersed and under-dispersed data. We finally apply the joint model to longitudinal microbiome pregnancy and HIV data sets.

Uncertainty Quantification of Linear Scaling, Machine Learning, and Density Functional Theory Derived Thermodynamics for the Catalytic Partial Oxidation of Methane on Rhodium.

Accurate and complete microkinetic models (MKMs) are powerful for anticipating the behavior of complex chemical systems at different operating conditions. In heterogeneous catalysis, they can be further used for the rapid development and screening of new catalysts. Density functional theory (DFT) is often used to calculate the parameters used in MKMs with relatively high fidelity. However, given the high cost of DFT calculations for adsorbates in heterogeneous catalysis, linear scaling relations (LSRs) and machine learning (ML) models were developed to give rapid estimates of the parameters in MKM. Regardless of the method, few studies have attempted to quantify the uncertainty in catalytic MKMs, as the uncertainties are often orders of magnitude larger than those for gas phase models. This study explores uncertainty quantification and Bayesian Parameter Estimation for thermodynamic parameters calculated by DFT, LSRs, and GemNet-OC, a ML model developed under the Open Catalyst Project. A model for catalytic partial oxidation of methane (CPOX) on Rhodium was chosen as a case study, in which the model's thermodynamic parameters and their associated uncertainties were determined using DFT, LSR, and GemNet-OC. Markov Chain Monte Carlo coupled with Ensemble Slice Sampling was used to sample the highest probability density (HPD) region of the posterior and determine the maximum of the a posteriori (MAP) for each thermodynamic parameter included. The optimized microkinetic models for each of the three estimation methods had quite similar mechanisms and agreed well with the experimental data for gas phase mole fractions. Exploration of the HPD region of the posterior further revealed that adsorbed hydroxide and oxygen likely bind on facets other than Rhodium 111. The demonstrated workflow addresses the issue of inaccuracies arising from the integration of data from multiple sources by considering both experimental and computational uncertainties, and further reveals information about the active site that would not have been discovered without considering the posterior.

Collaborative Seismic Impedance Inversion under Bayesian Parameter Estimation

Abstract At present, the industry mainly divides seismic inversion methods into deterministic inversion and deterministic inversion based on the methods and principles used in inversion. There are two types of geostatistical inversion. Deterministic inversion is the process of directly modifying the model quantity through optimization algorithms under given initial constraint conditions to obtain a definite solution; Geostatistical inversion uses random simulation methods to obtain inversion results through simulation and selection. The seismic data did not participate in the direct modification of the model, but rather served as a matching optimization constraint for the random model. Starting from the Bayesian formula, this article unifies deterministic inversion and geostatistical inversion within the Bayesian parameter estimation framework. From a theoretical framework, it analyzes the similarities and differences between deterministic inversion and geostatistical inversion, and proposes a method that combines deterministic inversion and geostatistical inversion - seismic wave impedance co inversion. Sequential Gaussian simulation and model constrained inversion are used as examples of the two major methods, The correctness of the research results and the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed new inversion method and process have been verified through the application of the Marmousi theoretical model and actual data from Fudong, Fukang Depression, Xinjiang. It has been proven that the proposed method can improve the accuracy and precision of inversion. The inversion method and process used in this study obtained high-resolution and high-precision inversion results, which have good application prospects.

Toward Accelerated Nuclear-physics Parameter Estimation from Binary Neutron Star Mergers: Emulators for the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff Equations

Gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron-star (BNS) mergers have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the nuclear equation of state (EOS) and the fundamental interactions that determine its properties. However, Bayesian parameter estimation frameworks do not typically sample over microscopic nuclear-physics parameters that determine the EOS. One of the major hurdles in doing so is the computational cost involved in solving the neutron-star structure equations, known as the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations. In this paper, we explore approaches to emulating solutions for the TOV equations: multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), Gaussian processes, and a data-driven variant of the reduced basis method (RBM). We implement these emulators for three different parameterizations of the nuclear EOS, each with a different degree of complexity represented by the number of model parameters. We find that our MLP-based emulators are generally more accurate than the other two algorithms, whereas the RBM results in the largest speedup with respect to the full high-fidelity TOV solver. We employ these emulators for a simple parameter inference using a potentially loud BNS observation and show that the posteriors predicted by our emulators are in excellent agreement with those obtained from the full TOV solver.

Kinematic calibration of industrial robot using Bayesian modeling framework

Positioning accuracy of an end-effector is a crucial metric for evaluating industrial robot performance. Uncertainties in joint angles and joint backlash deviate actual angles from the designed nominal values to negate positioning accuracy. Most existing parameter identification methods overlook or not properly account for such uncertainties, leading to usually overconfident identification results. To this gap, the present study introduces a kinematic calibration methodology employing Bayesian parameter estimation to achieve identification of joint variables. New formulas based on data features of industrial robots for constructing the likelihood function are proposed, and model selection is applied to assess various likelihood functions for a tradeoff balance between complexity and accuracy. To evaluate the robustness of the proposed approach, identification of joint variables is conducted under different measurement noises. The position response of kinematic model is predicted based on the identified joint uncertainty information. The efficacy is verified through rigorous scrutiny involving both a numerical example and an engineering application. Results indicate that the proposed method exhibits satisfactory kinematic parameter identification accuracy and robustness. In addition, the uncertainty of parameters can be measured and the prediction of trajectory uncertainty intervals is realized simultaneously, which promotes the application of industrial robots in high-precision scenes.

MCMC Methods for Parameter Estimation in ODE Systems for CAR-T Cell Cancer Therapy.

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T cell therapy represents a breakthrough in treating resistant hematologic cancers. It is based on genetically modifying T cells transferred from the patient or a donor. Although its implementation has increased over the last few years, CAR-T has many challenges to be addressed, for instance, the associated severe toxicities, such as cytokine release syndrome. To model CAR-T cell dynamics, focusing on their proliferation and cytotoxic activity, we developed a mathematical framework using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with Bayesian parameter estimation. Bayesian statistics were used to estimate model parameters through Monte Carlo integration, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This paper explores MCMC methods, including the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and DEMetropolis and DEMetropolisZ algorithms, which integrate differential evolution to enhance convergence rates. The theoretical findings and algorithms were validated using Python and Jupyter Notebooks. A real medical dataset of CAR-T cell therapy was analyzed, employing optimization algorithms to fit the mathematical model to the data, with the PyMC library facilitating Bayesian analysis. The results demonstrated that our model accurately captured the key dynamics of CAR-T cell therapy. This conclusion underscores the potential of parameter estimation to improve the understanding and effectiveness of CAR-T cell therapy in clinical settings.

Daptomycin Dosage Optimization in Renal Impairment Using Model-Informed Precision Dosing.

Daptomycin's efficacy and toxicity are closely related to its exposure, which can vary widely among individuals. The patient, a 59-year-old male with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 12 mL/min/1.73 m² and a weight of 64 kg, was treated with 850 mg of daptomycin every other day for infective endocarditis caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). For patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m², the dosing recommendations are not explicitly defined in the endocarditis guidelines. Subsequently, the pharmacology department was contacted to adjust the dosage. A population pharmacokinetic model developed by Dvorchik et al. was used for Bayesian estimation of the patient's pharmacokinetic parameters. The 24-hour area under the curve (AUC24) of daptomycin was calculated at steady state using peak and trough plasma samples. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of the MRSA strain was 0.25 mg/L. An AUC24/MIC ratio below 666 is associated with higher mortality risk, while an AUC24 above 939 h·mg/L correlates with increased risk of muscular toxicity. Initial AUC24 estimation was 1091 h·mg/L. Following a dosage reduction to 700 mg every other day, the AUC24 increased to 1600 h·mg/L. Further reduction to 500 mg every other day brought the AUC24 down to 750 h mg/L, with two subsequent measurements showing consistent AUC24 values of 500 h·mg/L, which is within the target range. Daptomycin ended 6 weeks after the initial negative blood culture, with no adverse effects or recurrence of MRSA infection. This case underscores the need for therapeutic drug monitoring and a multidisciplinary approach to adjust daptomycin doses in patients with renal impairment.

Fast likelihood-free reconstruction of gravitational wave backgrounds

We apply state-of-the-art, likelihood-free statistical inference (machine-learning-based) techniques for reconstructing the spectral shape of a gravitational wave background (GWB). We focus on the reconstruction of an arbitrarily shaped signal (approximated by a piecewise power-law in many frequency bins) by the LISA detector, but the method can be easily extended to either template-dependent signals, or to other detectors, as long as a characterisation of the instrumental noise is available. As proof of the technique, we quantify the ability of LISA to reconstruct signals of arbitrary spectral shape (blind reconstruction), considering a diversity of frequency profiles, and including astrophysical backgrounds in some cases. As a teaser of how the method can reconstruct signals characterised by a parameter-dependent template (template reconstruction), we present a dedicated study for power-law signals. While our technique has several advantages with respect to traditional MCMC methods, we validate it with the latter for concrete cases. This work opens the door for both fast and accurate Bayesian parameter estimation of GWBs, with essentially no computational overhead during the inference step. Our set of tools are integrated into the package GWBackFinder, which is publicly available in GitHub.

SB-ETAS: using simulation based inference for scalable, likelihood-free inference for the ETAS model of earthquake occurrences

The rapid growth of earthquake catalogs, driven by machine learning-based phase picking and denser seismic networks, calls for the application of a broader range of models to determine whether the new data enhances earthquake forecasting capabilities. Additionally, this growth demands that existing forecasting models efficiently scale to handle the increased data volume. Approximate inference methods such as inlabru, which is based on the Integrated nested Laplace approximation, offer improved computational efficiencies and the ability to perform inference on more complex point-process models compared to traditional MCMC approaches. We present SB-ETAS: a simulation based inference procedure for the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. This approximate Bayesian method uses sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) to learn posterior distributions from simulations, rather than typical MCMC sampling using the likelihood. On synthetic earthquake catalogs, SB-ETAS provides better coverage of ETAS posterior distributions compared with inlabru. Furthermore, we demonstrate that using a simulation based procedure for inference improves the scalability from O(n2)\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\mathcal {O}(n^2)$$\\end{document} to O(nlogn)\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\mathcal {O}(n\\log n)$$\\end{document}. This makes it feasible to fit to very large earthquake catalogs, such as one for Southern California dating back to 1981. SB-ETAS can find Bayesian estimates of ETAS parameters for this catalog in less than 10 h on a standard laptop, a task that would have taken over 2 weeks using MCMC. Beyond the standard ETAS model, this simulation based framework allows earthquake modellers to define and infer parameters for much more complex models by removing the need to define a likelihood function.

Energy-dependent intrinsic time delay of gamma-ray bursts on testing Lorentz invariance violation

High-energy photons of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) might be emitted at different intrinsic times with energy dependence at the source. In this letter, we expand the model from previous works on testing the Lorentz Invariance Violation (LV) with the observed GRB data from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. We reanalyze the previous data with the full Bayesian parameter estimation method and get consistent results by assuming that the time delays are due to an LV term and a constant intrinsic time delay term. Subsequently, we neglect the LV effect and only consider the intrinsic time delay effect. We assume a common intrinsic time delay term along with a source energy correlated time delay of high-energy photons. We find that the energy-dependent emission times can also explain the observed GRB data of high-energy photon events. Finally, we integrate these two physical mechanisms into a unified model to distinguish and evaluate their respective contributions using the observed GRB data.

A note on Bayesian inference for the bivariate pseudo-exponential model

In this present work, we discuss the Bayesian inference for the Bivariate Pseudo-exponential distribution. Initially, we assume independent gamma priors and Pseudo-gamma priors for the Pseudo-exponential parameters. Possible conjugacy is investigated in both full and sub-models. In some special sub-cases, conjugate priors can be identified. We are primarily interested in deriving the posterior means for each prior assumed and comparing each of the posterior means with the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, all the Bayesian analyses are illustrated with a simulation study to demonstrate the performance of Bayesian parameter estimates using a variety of informative and non-informative priors, also illustrated with real-life applications.

On the Association of GW190425 with Its Potential Electromagnetic Counterpart FRB 20190425A

Recent work by Moroianu et al. has suggested that the binary neutron star (BNS) merger GW190425 might have a potential fast radio burst (FRB) counterpart association, FRB20190425A, at the 2.8σ level of confidence with a likely host galaxy association, namely UGC10667. The authors argue that the observations are consistent with a long-lived hypermassive neutron star (HMNS) that formed promptly after the BNS merger and was stable for approximately 2.5 hr before promptly collapsing into a black hole. Recently, Bhardwaj et al. conclusively associated FRB20190425A with UGC10667, potentially providing a direct host galaxy candidate for GW190425. In this work, we examine the multimessenger association based on the spacetime localization overlaps between GW190425 and the FRB host galaxy UGC10667 and find that the odds for a coincident association are O(5) . We validate this estimate by using a Gaussian process density estimator. Assuming that the association is indeed real, we then perform Bayesian parameter estimation on GW190425 assuming that the BNS event took place in UGC10667. We find that the viewing angle of GW190425 excludes an on-axis system at p(θ v > 30°) ≈ 99.99%, highly favoring an off-axis system similar to GRB 170817A. We also find a slightly higher source frame total mass for the binary, namely, mtotal=3.42−0.11+0.34M⊙ , leading to an increase in the probability of prompt collapse into a black hole and therefore disfavors the long-lived HMNS formation scenario. Given our findings, we conclude that the association between GW190425 and FRB20190425A is disfavoured by current state-of-the-art gravitational-wave analyses.

Support for the Time-Varying Drift Rate Model of Perceptual Discrimination in Dynamic and Static Noise Using Bayesian Model-Fitting Methodology.

The drift-diffusion model (DDM) is a common approach to understanding human decision making. It considers decision making as accumulation of evidence about visual stimuli until sufficient evidence is reached to make a decision (decision boundary). Recently, Smith and colleagues proposed an extension of DDM, the time-varying DDM (TV-DDM). Here, the standard simplification that evidence accumulation operates on a fully formed representation of perceptual information is replaced with a perceptual integration stage modulating evidence accumulation. They suggested that this model particularly captures decision making regarding stimuli with dynamic noise. We tested this new model in two studies by using Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison with marginal likelihoods. The first study replicated Smith and colleagues' findings by utilizing the classical random-dot kinomatogram (RDK) task, which requires judging the motion direction of randomly moving dots (motion discrimination task). In the second study, we used a novel type of stimulus designed to be like RDKs but with randomized hue of stationary dots (color discrimination task). This study also found TV-DDM to be superior, suggesting that perceptual integration is also relevant for static noise possibly where integration over space is required. We also found support for within-trial changes in decision boundaries ("collapsing boundaries"). Interestingly, and in contrast to most studies, the boundaries increased with increasing task difficulty (amount of noise). Future studies will need to test this finding in a formal model.

A method for characterizing disease emergence curves from paired pathogen detection and serology data

Abstract Wildlife disease surveillance programs and research studies track infection and identify risk factors for wild populations, humans and agriculture. Often, several types of samples are collected from individuals to provide more complete information about an animal's infection history. Methods that jointly analyse multiple data streams to study disease emergence and drivers of infection via epidemiological process models remain underdeveloped. Joint‐analysis methods can more thoroughly analyse all available data, more precisely quantifying epidemic processes, outbreak status, and risks. We contribute a paired data modelling approach that analyses multiple samples from individuals. We use ‘characterization maps’ to link paired data to epidemiological processes through a hierarchical statistical observation model. Our approach can provide both Bayesian and frequentist estimates of epidemiological parameters and state. Our approach can also incorporate test sensitivity and specificity, and we propose model fit diagnostics. We motivate our approach through the need to use paired pathogen and antibody detection tests to estimate parameters and infection trajectories for the widely applicable susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR) model. We contribute general formulas to link characterization maps to arbitrary process models and datasets and an extended SIR model that better accommodates paired data. We find via simulation that paired data can more efficiently estimate SIR parameters than unpaired data, requiring samples from 5 to 10 times fewer individuals. We use our method to study SARS‐CoV‐2 in wild white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from three counties in the United States. Estimates for average infectious times corroborate captive animal studies. The estimated average cumulative proportion of infected deer across the three counties is 73%, and the basic reproductive number (R0) is 1.88. Wildlife disease surveillance programs and research studies can use our methods to jointly analyse paired data to estimate epidemiological process parameters and track outbreaks. Paired data analyses can improve precision and accuracy when sampling is limited. Our methods use general statistical theory to let applications extend beyond the SIR model we consider and to more complicated examples of paired data. The methods can also be embedded in larger hierarchical models to provide landscape‐scale risk assessment and identify drivers of infection.

Analysis of the subsolar-mass black hole candidate SSM200308 from the second part of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO-Virgo

We present a follow-up study of a subsolar black hole candidate identified in the second part of the third observing run of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration. The candidate was identified by the GstLAL search pipeline in the Hanford and Livingston LIGO detectors with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 8.90 and a false-alarm-rate of 1 per 5 years. It is the most significant of the three candidates found below the O3b subsolar mass false-alarm rate threshold of 2 per year, but still not significant enough above the background to claim a clear gravitational wave origin. A Bayesian parameter estimation of this candidate, denoted SSM200308, reveals that if the signal originates from a compact binary coalescence, the component masses are m1=0.62−0.20+0.46M⊙ and m2=0.27−0.10+0.12M⊙ (90% credible intervals) with at least one component being firmly subsolar, below the minimum mass of a neutron star. This discards the hypothesis that the signal comes from a standard binary neutron star. The signal coherence test between the two LIGO detectors is consistent with, but does not necessarily imply, a compact object coalescence origin.