Bayesian Age-period-cohort Model Research Articles

Global burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to kidney dysfunction with projection into 2040.

Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.

Analysis and prediction of disease burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2030

Objective: To comprehensively understand the disease burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2019, as well as to predict the trends in disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Methods: The analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019 (GBD2019). Key indicators such as incidence rate, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability were selected to describe the disease burden of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to depict the temporal trends in disease burden. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was constructed using R software to predict the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China from 2020 to 2030. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China showed an upward trend, with an EAPC of 0.31% (95%CI: 0.10%-0.52%). However, the DALY declined, with an EAPC of -2.81% (95%CI: -2.92% - -2.70%). The ASMR showed a downward trend, with an EAPC of -2.55% (95%CI: -2.66% - -2.45%). The highest incidence of cirrhosis of liver caused by alcohol and other chronic liver diseases was reported in the age group of 35-49 years, while the ASMR increased gradually with age, with a significant rise after the age of 30. The age-standardized DALY rate peaked between the ages of 55 and 64. The disease burden indicators for males were consistently higher than those for females during the same period. According to the predictions of the BAPC model, from 2020 to 2030, the ASIR for cirrhosis of liver caused by alcohol and other chronic liver diseases in the entire population of China was projected to increase from 3.45/100 000 in 2020 to 3.78/100 000 in 2030, a growth of 9.57%. Conversely, the ASMR was expected to decrease from 1.45/100 000 in 2020 to 1.24/100 000 in 2030, a reduction of 14.48%. Conclusions: The disease burden of cirrhosis of liver caused by alcohol and other chronic liver diseases remained serious in China, especially in men and the middle-aged to elderly population. There is a pressing need to prioritize attention and resources towards these groups. Despite the projected decrease in ASMR, the ASIR continued to rise and is expected to persist in its upward trend until 2030.

Geographic disparities in trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 and a projection to 2030 across income-classified countries and territories.

The rising incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has generated growing concern globally; yet there are no studies examining whether this incidence was followed by a rise in related mortality. We aimed to comprehensively quantify current trends and future projections of TC incidence and mortality, and to explore the association between the TC burden and socioeconomic inequality in different income strata. We obtained incidence and mortality data on TC and population from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2022. We applied an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) and age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019, and also constructed a Bayesian APC model to predict the TC burden through 2030. Over a third of global TC cases belonged to the high-income group. From 1990 to 2019, net drifts of TC incidence were >0 in all income groups, while a modest reduction (net drift <0) in mortality was observed in most income groups, except for the lower-middle-income group. Unfavourable age, period, and cohort effects were most notable in Vietnam, China, and Korea. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) is predicted to increase whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) is expected to decrease globally between 2020 and 2030, with geographic heterogeneity being detected across income groups. We observed a positive correlation between ASIR and universal health coverage index and health worker density, but a negative one between ASMR and the two indicators, primarily in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Opposite patterns in incidence and mortality of TC raise concerns about overdiagnosis, particularly in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Discrepancies in the distribution of health service accessibility, including diagnostic techniques and therapeutic care, should be addressed by narrowing health inequalities in the TC burden across countries.

Secular Trends in Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Attributable to Dietary Carcinogens From 1990 to 2019 and Projections Until 2044 in China: Population-Based Study.

Little is known about trends in or projections of the disease burden of dietary gastric and esophageal cancer (GEC) in China. We aim to report GEC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, predict them through 2044, and decompose changes in terms of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes. We retrieved dietary GEC data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database and used joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models to analyze trends in dietary GEC deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 in China. We used a Bayesian age period cohort model of integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the disease burden of GEC through 2044 and obtained the estimated population of China from 2020 to 2050 from the Global Health Data Exchange website. Finally, we applied a recently developed decomposition method to attribute changes between 2019 and 2044 to population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes. The summary exposure values and age-standardized rates decreased significantly from 1990 to 1999, with percentage changes of -0.06% (95% CI -0.11% to -0.02%) and -0.05% (95% CI -0.1% to -0.02%), respectively. From 1990 to 2019, for dietary esophageal cancer, the percentage change in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was -0.79% (95% CI -0.93% to -0.58%) and the percentage change in age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) was -0.81% (95% CI -0.94% to -0.61%); these were significant decreases. For dietary stomach cancer, significant decreases were also observed for the percentage change in ASMR (-0.43%, 95% CI -0.55% to -0.31%) and the percentage change in ASDR (-0.47%, 95% CI -0.58% to -0.35%). In addition, data from both the joinpoint regression and annual percentage change analyses demonstrated significantly decreasing trends for the annual percentage change in ASMR and ASDR for GEC attributable to dietary carcinogens. The overall annual percentage change (net drift) was -5.95% (95% CI -6.25% to -5.65%) for dietary esophageal cancer mortality and -1.97% (95% CI -2.11% to -1.83%) for dietary stomach cancer mortality. Lastly, in 2044, dietary esophageal cancer deaths and DALYs were predicted to increase by 192.62% and 170.28%, respectively, due to age structure (121.58% and 83.29%), mortality change (76.81% and 92.43%), and population size (-5.77% and -5.44%). In addition, dietary stomach cancer deaths and DALYs were predicted to increase by 118.1% and 54.08%, with age structure, mortality rate change, and population size accounting for 96.71% and 53.99%, 26.17% and 3.97%, and -4.78% and -3.88% of the change, respectively. Although the predicted age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs due to dietary GEC show downward trends, the absolute numbers are still predicted to increase in the next 25 years due to rapid population aging in China.

Worldwide trends in mortality for hypertensive heart disease from 1990 to 2019 with projection to 2034: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

This study aims to analyse the worldwide trends in hypertensive heart disease (HHD) mortality and associations with age, period, and birth cohort and predict the future burden of HHD deaths. Mortality estimates were obtained from Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used age-period-cohort (APC) model to examine the age, period, and cohort effects on HHD mortality between 1990 and 2019. Bayesian APC model was utilized to predict HHD deaths to 2034. The global HHD deaths were 1.16 million in 2019 and were projected to increase to 1.57 million in 2034, with the largest increment in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Between 1990 and 2019, middle/high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) countries had the largest mortality reductions (annual percentage change = -2.06%), whereas low SDI countries saw a lagging performance (annual percentage change = -1.09%). There was a prominent transition in the age distribution of deaths towards old-age population in middle/high-middle SDI countries, while the proportion of premature deaths (aged under 60 years) remained at 24% in low SDI countries in 2019. Amongst LMICs, Brazil, China, and Ethiopia showed typically improving trends both over time and in recent birth cohorts, whereas 63 countries including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan had unfavourable or worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts. The HHD death burden in 2019 is vast and is expected to increase rapidly in the next decade, particularly for LMICs. Limited progress in HHD management together with high premature mortality would exact huge human and medical costs in low SDI countries. The examples from Brazil, China, and Ethiopia suggest that efficient health systems with action on improving hypertension care can reduce HHD mortality effectively in LMICs.

Preventable burden of head and neck cancer attributable to tobacco and alcohol between 1990 and 2039 in China.

Tobacco use and heavy alcohol consumption are risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC), including oral, pharynx, and larynx cancer. No study has investigated the preventable burden of HNC attributable to tobacco and alcohol in China. We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease. The preventable burden attributable to tobacco and alcohol was estimated by subtracting the overlapping fraction derived from a literature search. Descriptive analyses were performed initially, followed by joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The future burden was forecasted using a Bayesian APC model. The crude burden increased significantly, while the age-standardized rates showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 in China. Both all-age and age-standardized population attributable fractions rose significantly, potentially due to the poor prognosis of tobacco- and alcohol-associated HNC. The absolute burden would continue to climb in the next 20 years from 2019, largely due to population aging. For site-specific burden, compared with total, pharynx, and larynx cancer burden, the substantial upward trend of oral cancer burden indicated a strong interaction with risk factors such as genetic susceptibility, betel nut chewing, oral microbiota, and human papillomavirus. The burden of oral cancer attributable to tobacco and alcohol is a major concern and is anticipated to become more severe than cancer in other anatomic sites. Altogether, our study provides useful information to rethink the current restrictions on tobacco and alcohol, lean healthcare resources, and develop effective HNC prevention and control strategies.

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence of Gout From 1990 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis With Future Burden Prediction.

Gout is a common and debilitating condition that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite advances in medical treatment, the global burden of gout continues to increase, particularly in high-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. To address the aforementioned issue, we used age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to analyze global trends in gout incidence and prevalence from 1990 to 2019. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to assess all-age prevalence and age-standardized prevalence rates, as well as years lived with disability rates, for 204 countries and territories. APC effects were also examined in relation to gout prevalence. Future burden prediction was carried out using the Nordpred APC prediction of future incidence cases and the Bayesian APC model. The global gout incidence has increased by 63.44% over the past 2 decades, with a corresponding increase of 51.12% in global years lived with disability. The sex ratio remained consistent at 3:1 (male to female), but the global gout incidence increased in both sexes over time. Notably, the prevalence and incidence of gout were the highest in high-SDI regions (95% uncertainty interval 14.19-20.62), with a growth rate of 94.3%. Gout prevalence increases steadily with age, and the prevalence increases rapidly in high-SDI quantiles for the period effect. Finally, the cohort effect showed that gout prevalence increases steadily, with the risk of morbidity increasing in younger birth cohorts. The prediction model suggests that the gout incidence rate will continue to increase globally. Our study provides important insights into the global burden of gout and highlights the need for effective management and prophylaxis of this condition. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in gout prevalence and incidence, and our findings can inform the development of targeted interventions to address this growing health issue.

Comparison of statistical models to predict age-standardized cancer incidence in Switzerland.

This study compares the performance of statistical methods for predicting age-standardized cancer incidence, including Poisson generalized linear models, age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series, and simple linear models. The methods are evaluated via leave-future-out cross-validation, and performance is assessed using the normalized root mean square error, interval score, and coverage of prediction intervals. Methods were applied to cancer incidence from the three Swiss cancer registries of Geneva, Neuchatel, and Vaud combined, considering the five most frequent cancer sites: breast, colorectal, lung, prostate, and skin melanoma and bringing all other sites together in a final group. Best overall performance was achieved by ARIMA models, followed by linear regression models. Prediction methods based on model selection using the Akaike information criterion resulted in overfitting. The widely used APC and BAPC models were found to be suboptimal for prediction, particularly in the case of a trend reversal in incidence, as it was observed for prostate cancer. In general, we do not recommend predicting cancer incidence for periods far into the future but rather updating predictions regularly.

Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050.

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon and aggressive malignant head and neck cancer, which is highly prevalent in southern and southwestern provinces in China. The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence trends from 2020 to 2049. All data were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were chosen to analyze prevalence trends. The temporal trends and age distribution of risk factors were also analyzed descriptively. Bayesian APC models were used to predict the prevalence from 2020 to 2049. The results indicate a higher disease burden in men and older adults. Their attributable risk factors are smoking, occupational exposure to formaldehyde, and alcohol use. We predict that the incidence will be on the rise in all age groups between 2020 and 2049, with the highest incidence in people aged 70 to 89 years. In 2049, the incidence rate is expected to reach 13.39 per 100,000 (50-54 years), 16.43 (55-59 years), 17.26 (60-64 years), 18.02 (65-69 years), 18.55 (70-74 years), 18.39 (75-79 years), 19.95 (80-84 years), 23.07 (85-89 years), 13.70 (90-94 years), and 6.68 (95+ years). The findings of this study might deserve consideration in China's NPC prevention and control policy design.

Musculoskeletal Disorder Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Predicts from 1990 to 2044.

Musculoskeletal disorders are one of the three major disabling diseases in the world. However, the current disease burden in China is not well-known. This study aimed to explore the burden and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders in China from 1990 to 2019, predicting the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. All data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were selected to analyze the epidemic trend, and descriptive analyses of the time trends and age distributions of risk factors were performed. The Bayesian APC model was used to foresee the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. The results indicated that the burden of musculoskeletal disorders is higher in women and older adults. Its attributable risk factors were found to be tobacco, a high body mass index, kidney dysfunction and occupational risks. In 2044, musculoskeletal disorders in China showed a downward trend for 35-59-year-olds and a slight upward trend for 30-34- and 65-84-year-olds. The 70-74 year age group saw the largest increase in incidence at 4.66%. Overall, the incidence increased with age. Therefore, prevention and control policies should focus on women and the elderly, and health interventions should be carried out based on risk factors.

The epidemic of malignant mesothelioma in China: a prediction of incidence during 2016-2030.

Malignant mesothelioma is an invasive cancer with a poor prognosis. The crude incidence rate of malignant mesothelioma in China increased throughout 2000 to 2013, which attracted attention. In order to predict the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma in China, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) prediction model was constructed using publicly available data from the National Cancer Registration Network. Based on the annual reports of the national cancer registration from 2005 to 2015, the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma from 2016 to 2030 in China was forecast using the APC Modeling and Prediction package from the Institute of Biomedical Engineering, London. The crude incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma decreased from 2.2 per one million person-years in 2005 to 1.6 per one million person-years in 2015. The incidence rates remained stable over the 11-year time period after age standardization. Aging was found to have a dominant effect on the trends. The Bayesian APC model showed that the crude incidence rates would increase from 1.4 per one million person-years in 2016 to 1.9 per one million person-years in 2030, and the estimated number of new incident cases would increase to 2,775 in 2030. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) remained steady. In the future decade, the incidence of malignant mesothelioma may increase, but the ASR will remain stable. Considering its high degree of malignancy, malignant mesothelioma still needs to be taken seriously.

Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures. We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan. In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women). After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040at the national level and in most prefectures. This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.

Future trends of overweight and obesity in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

Abstract Background Considering the current overweight and obesity epidemic and its associated increase in non-communicable diseases and healthcare costs, the current study aimed to project the trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity in Belgium using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) model to support policy planning. Methods Height and weight of 58,369 adults aged 18+ years, collected in six consecutive cross-sectional health interview surveys between 1997 and 2018, were evaluated. Criteria used for overweight and obesity were defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25, and BMI ≥ 30. A Bayesian APC model was applied to evaluate past trends and associated socio-demographic risk factors, and to forecast trends to 2019-2029. All analyses were performed based on integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and took the complex survey design into account. Results The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased between 1997 and 2018. If current trends continue, it is likely to that a further increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the population will be seen by 2029 with a probability of growth of 51.2% and 73.3%, respectively. Forecasts indicated a potential prevalence of 50.1% [16.2%; 84.4%] in 2029 for overweight, and 21.4% [9.0%; 43.4%] for obesity. Among survey participants, middle-aged men with no higher education and a middle income showed the highest risk of overweight and obesity. Conclusions We projected an alarming increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. A decrease in cases seems very unlikely. There is an urgent need to target younger age groups for prevention and implementation of public educational programs to limit the increasing trend in overweight and obesity. Key messages • The occurence of obesity is likely to increase in the following 10 years. • Projection of trends can serve as a useful tool for policy planning on the mid- and longer term.

The comparative burden of brain and central nervous system cancers from 1990 to 2019 between China and the United States and predicting the future burden.

Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers represent a major source of cancer burden in China and the United States. Comparing the two countries' epidemiological features for brain and CNS cancers can help plan interventions and draw lessons. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease repository. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and relative risks of cancer burdens were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) models, respectively. Moreover, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the number of incidences, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased in China and the US, with a larger increase in China. Age-standardized incidence rates in China and the United States have shown an increasing trend over the past three decades, with AAPCs of 0.84 and 0.16%, respectively. However, the rates of age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALYs decreased in both countries, with a greater decrease in China. Overall, age trends in cancer burden were similar for males and females, with two peaks in the childhood and elderly groups, respectively. The period and cohort effects on incidence showed an overall increasing trend in China and limited change in the US. However, the period effects for mortality and DALY were decreasing in both countries, while the cohort effects tended to increase and then decrease. Moreover, we predicted that the cancer burdens would continue to rise in China over the next decade. The burden of brain and CNS cancers is substantial and will continue to increase in China. Comprehensive policy and control measures need to be implemented to reduce the burden.

Lip and Oral Cavity Cancer Burden and Related Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2049.

Simple SummaryChina’s lip and oral cavity cancer burden is rising. The elderly have a relatively heavy disease burden, mainly due to poor oral health awareness, the side effects of other diseases and delayed treatment. Moreover, the incidence of the elderly over 50 years old is predicted to increase further from 2020 to 2049 in China. Males have a heavier disease burden, mainly due to their smoking, drinking and work exposure. Early screening and health intervention policies incorporating key populations and risk factors may deserve the consideration of policy makers to reduce the disease burden.Lip and oral cavity cancer is a common malignancy faced by many developing countries, and the disease burden is high in China. This study explored this cancer burden and its risk factors using data from China in the GBD 2019, along with predicting the incidence trends in 2020–2049. Data on age-standardized rates (ASR), incidence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), by sex, age and risk factors were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Joinpoint regression and Age–Period–Cohort (APC) models were selected to analyze the epidemic trend of this cancer in China, and descriptive analysis was used for the time trend and age distribution of risk factors. The Bayesian APC model was selected to foresee the incidence trend in 2020–2049. This cancer burden was found to be in an upward trend in China in 1990–2019. The upward trend was more pronounced among men than among women. These cancer deaths and DALYs are overwhelmingly attributable to smoking and drinking. On APC analysis, the younger generation in China demonstrated a lower cancer risk. In 2049, the incidence of this cancer is projected to be 3.99/100,000, 6.07/100,000, 7.37/100,000, 10.49/100,000, 14.82/100,000, 19.19/100,000, 20.71/100,000, 23.64/100,000, 16.42/100,000 and 9.91/100,000 among those aged 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 85–89 and over 95 years, respectively. Disease control policies and early screening should focus on men and the elderly and target different risk factors.

Burden of Lung Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogens from 1990 to 2019 and Projections until 2044 in China.

Simple SummaryThe disease burden trend of lung cancer that is attributable to occupational carcinogens in China remains unclear. We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019 to investigate the related disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and to project the disease burden for the next 25 years. The results indicate that the disease burden of lung cancer that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years.Background: Little is known about trends in the lung cancer burden from the disease that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China. Methods: Data regarding the lung cancer burden that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis were conducted to estimate the trend of lung cancer burden as a result of occupational carcinogens from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian APC model was used to predict the disease burden until 2044. Results: The average annual percentage changes of age-standardized summary exposure values (SEVs) of occupational lung carcinogens, as well as the age-standardized population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung cancer due to occupational carcinogens, were 0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4–0.5%) and 0.1% (95% CI: 0–0.2%), respectively. In addition, both the joinpoint regression analysis and APC analysis demonstrated significantly increased trends of age-standardized lung cancer mortality (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) as a result of occupational carcinogens. Asbestos and silica accounted for the two most important occupational lung carcinogens in China. The absolute burden is expected to increase, mainly due to population aging and the age-specific rate of illness. Conclusions: The lung cancer burden that could be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years.

Changing trends in the air pollution-related disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and its predicted level in 25years.

In the twenty-first century, exposure to air pollution has become a threat to human health worldwide due to industrial development. Timely, comprehensive, and reliable assessment and prediction of disease burden can help mitigate the health hazards of air pollution. This study conducted a two-stage analysis. First, we reported the air pollution–related disease burden globally and for different subgroups like socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. We analyzed the trend of the disease burden from 1990 to 2019. In addition, we explored whether and how some national indicators modified the disease burden. Second, we predicted the number and the age-standardized rates of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to air pollution from 2020 to 2044 by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and exponential smoothing model. The age-period-cohort (APC) model in the maximum likelihood framework and the Bayesian APC model integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs) were further applied to perform sensitivity analysis. In 2019, air pollution accounted for 11.62% of death and 0.84% of DALY worldwide. The corresponding age-standardized rate was 85.62 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 75.71, 96.07) and 2791.08 (95% UI: 2468.81, 3141.39) per 100,000 population. From 1990 to 2019, the number of death attributable to air pollution remained stable, and the number of DALY exhibited a downward trend. The corresponding age-standardized rates both declined. In some countries with larger population densities, higher proportions of elders, and lower proportions of females, the disease burden attributable to air pollution was lower. The predicted results showed that the number of air pollution-related death and DALY would increase. This study comprehensively assessed and predicted the air pollution–related disease burden worldwide. The results indicated that the disease burden would remain very serious in the future. Hence, some relevant policies should be developed to prevent and manage air pollution.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-22318-z.

The Epidemic of Malignant Mesothelioma in China: A Prediction of Incidence During 2016-2030

Background: Since the increasing use of asbestos occurred in China and the long latency period after asbestos exposure, predicting the incidence of malignant mesothelioma played an important role in attracting the attention of clinicians. The Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction model was fitted to predict the development trend from 2016 to 2030 based on the publicly available data of the national cancer registration network. Methods: Malignant mesothelioma incidence data were retrieved from the national cancer registration annual reports from 2005 to 2015. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Modeling and Prediction package (Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK) was used to describe the trend of malignant mesothelioma incidence and to predict the incidence rate and number of cases until the year of 2030. Findings: The crude incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma decreased from 0.22 per 100 000 in 2005 to 0.16 per 100000 in 2015. After age standardization, the incidence rates remained stable over the 11-year period. The trends were mainly caused by aging. The Bayesian APC model showed that increased from 0.14 per 100 000 in 2016 to 0.19 per 100000 in 2030 and the estimated number of new incident cases was predicted to increase to 2775 in 2030. The age-standardized incidence rate would remain steady. Interpretation: The incidence of malignant mesothelioma would remain stable in the next ten years, but due to its high degree of malignancy, the cancer still needs to be taken more attention at. Funding: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China; Beijing Hope Run Special Fund; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Beijing Municipal Health Commission. Conflict of Interest: All authors declare no competing interests.

An R package for an integrated evaluation of statistical approaches to cancer incidence projection

BackgroundProjection of future cancer incidence is an important task in cancer epidemiology. The results are of interest also for biomedical research and public health policy. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models, usually based on long-term cancer registry data (> 20 yrs), are established for such projections. In many countries (including Germany), however, nationwide long-term data are not yet available. General guidance on statistical approaches for projections using rather short-term data is challenging and software to enable researchers to easily compare approaches is lacking.MethodsTo enable a comparative analysis of the performance of statistical approaches to cancer incidence projection, we developed an R package (incAnalysis), supporting in particular Bayesian models fitted by Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). Its use is demonstrated by an extensive empirical evaluation of operating characteristics (bias, coverage and precision) of potentially applicable models differing by complexity. Observed long-term data from three cancer registries (SEER-9, NORDCAN, Saarland) was used for benchmarking.ResultsOverall, coverage was high (mostly > 90%) for Bayesian APC models (BAPC), whereas less complex models showed differences in coverage dependent on projection-period. Intercept-only models yielded values below 20% for coverage. Bias increased and precision decreased for longer projection periods (> 15 years) for all except intercept-only models. Precision was lowest for complex models such as BAPC models, generalized additive models with multivariate smoothers and generalized linear models with age x period interaction effects.ConclusionThe incAnalysis R package allows a straightforward comparison of cancer incidence rate projection approaches. Further detailed and targeted investigations into model performance in addition to the presented empirical results are recommended to derive guidance on appropriate statistical projection methods in a given setting.

An analysis of disparities in the changes of cancer mortality rates among prefectures in Japan using age-period-cohort analysis

Objectives In this study, we compared the decrease in cancer mortality rates among prefectures in Japan using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.Methods We used the cancer mortality data of each prefecture in Japan, as determined by the Vital Statistics, over 5-year periods from 1995 to 2015. Records of the number of mortalities in each 5-year age group from 40-44 to 85-89 years age was collected. We fitted a Bayesian APC model to the data of each prefecture and estimated the birth cohort effect on cancer mortality rates in the prefectures over 5-year periods ranging from 1916-1920 to 1971-1975. In addition, we calculated the ratio of the mortality rate of each prefecture to that of the entire country for each birth cohort.Results Our APC analysis revealed that the decrease in the age-adjusted cancer mortality rates was mainly attributable to a reduction in the cohort effect on the rates in men and to reduction in the cohort and period effects on the rates in women. The magnitude of reduction in cohort effect varied by prefecture for men and women. Several prefectures having a government ordinance-designated municipality tended to show a higher reduction than those that do not. Spearman's correlation coefficient between the population size of prefectures and the percentage reduction in cohort effect was 0.370 in men. In addition, the relative ranking of the prefectures based on cancer mortality rates greatly varied by birth cohorts, particularly in men.Conclusion A disparity exists in the percentage reduction in the cohort effect among prefectures. In each prefecture target cohorts with higher than average cancer mortality rates must be identified to implement specific countermeasures for cancer prevention. In addition, for each prefecture, assessment of lifestyle differences that might be related to cancer mortality among birth cohorts is important for reducing cancer mortality in the more recent birth cohorts.