Bass Model Of Diffusion Research Articles

Timely Forecasts of Diffusion of Innovations: The Bass Model in Emerging Markets

This article aims to establish a methodology to estimate the parameters of the Bass model of diffusion of innovations at the take-off stage of the innovation in emerging markets and thus draw timely diffusion forecasts. This article analyses four cases of diffusion of innovations in emerging markets. Besides gradient-based methods for model estimation such as ordinary least squares (OLS) and non-linear least squares (NLS), this article uses global optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms (GA) and simulated annealing (SA) with diffusion data till the take-off stage. This study attempts to respond to the problems of scant data by interpolation until the take-off stage. After that, a comprehensive comparison of different methods is made using the standard error diagnostic measures. The results indicate that a combination of NLS, GA and SA with interpolated data reduces error margins to a commonly acceptable level even with scant and noisy data, thus providing managers a methodology to make timely forecasts of diffusion of innovations in emerging markets.

Diffusion of selected green supply chain management practices: an assessment of Chinese enterprises

Environmental pollution and resource depletion pressures have caused manufacturers in developing countries such as China to improve environmental performance. In response, thoughtful and innovative enterprises have implemented emergent environmental management practices including elements of green supply chain management (GSCM). Diffusion of these practices to enterprises occurs from internal and external influences. Given that GSCM practices can be viewed as management innovations, this article applies the seminal Bass model to analyse GSCM practices diffusion. Specifically, the Bass model for diffusion is used to evaluate data for ISO 14001 certification and eco-labelling practices in China. In this investigation, we evaluate the relative roles of innovation and imitation drivers for diffusion of these GSCM practices. We find that even though innovation is not insignificant, imitation plays a much larger role for these specific GSCM practices diffusions amongst Chinese enterprises. Managerial and policy implications of these and other findings are also discussed.

Incorporating Attitudes and Imitation in the Bass Model of Diffusion

This study incorporated attitudes and imitation in the Bass (1969) model of diffusion. It was hypothesized that the Bass model with the inclusion of attitudes and imitation would perform better than a naive Bass model. Mean absolute deviations over three levels of purchase intention confirmed the hypothesis. 120 undergraduate business school students served as subjects and the stimulus object was athletic shoes.