Baseball Attendance Research Articles

Superstars Really Are Scarce: Shohei Ohtani and Baseball Attendance

We estimate the superstar effects in Major League Baseball, focusing on a particularly unique international athlete, Shohei Ohtani, using a fixed effects panel regression with multiway clustering. Ohtani’s scarce talent as both a pitcher and a hitter provides the potential to have outsized influence on demand at home (superstar effect) and away (superstar externality) games, providing new marketing opportunities for the league. We compare Ohtani’s impact on attendance with other top pitchers, particularly after large attendance drops attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that his superstardom played a key role in bringing fans back to baseball games. Results revealed a large attendance externality, especially after the pandemic, that increased away attendance by up to 40% in 2021 specifically (and up to 20% overall). We propose that Ohtani provides an opportunity for Major League Baseball to leverage a recognizable face of baseball and leverage superstar value that was previously shown to be in decline.

Machine learning prediction of factors affecting Major League Baseball (MLB) game attendance: algorithm comparisons and macroeconomic factor of unemployment

PurposeThis study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. Furthermore, by predicting spectators for each league (American League and National League) and division in MLB, the authors will identify the specific factors that increase accuracy, discuss them and provide implications for marketing strategies for academics and practitioners in sport.Design/methodology/approachThis study used six years of daily MLB game data (2014–2019). All data were collected as predictors, such as game performance, weather and unemployment rate. Also, the attendance rate was obtained as an observation variable. The Random Forest, Lasso regression models and XGBoost were used to build the prediction model, and the analysis was conducted using Python 3.7.FindingsThe RMSE value was 0.14, and the R2 was 0.62 as a consequence of fine-tuning the tuning parameters of the XGBoost model, which had the best performance in forecasting the attendance rate. The most influential variables in the model are “Rank” of 0.247 and “Day of the week”, “Home team” and “Day/Night game” were shown as influential variables in order. The result was shown that the “Unemployment rate”, as a macroeconomic factor, has a value of 0.06 and weather factors were a total value of 0.147.Originality/valueThis research highlights unemployment rate as a determinant affecting MLB game attendance rates. Beyond contextual elements such as climate, the findings of this study underscore the significance of economic factors, particularly unemployment rates, necessitating further investigation into these factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of game attendance.

Performance Quality Preference Heterogeneity in Major League Baseball

With few exceptions, the sports attendance demand literature assumes the intensity of fan responses to home and visiting team quality are homogeneous across the markets in a league. However, the theory of sports leagues makes no such assumption. In this paper, we empirically investigate heterogeneity in fan win preference intensity using Major League Baseball attendance. Using a generalized linear mixed model, we find evidence of substantial fan preference heterogeneity, toward both home and visiting team quality, across Major League Baseball markets. In addition to the demonstrated importance for empirical analysis, we detail how this also matters for league policy design.

Analyzing the Relationship between the Major League Baseball (MLB) Attendance and the Length of Baseball Games: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling of the 2010-19 MLB Seasons

In order to investigate the relationship between Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance and game duration, this study analyzed the number of spectators throughout the 2010-19 MLB regular seasons (N=24,297) with attendance determinants identified in earlier studies. Also, a three-level hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was used in consideration of the characteristics of attendance data for several seasons, teams, and individual games. A total of 27 independent variables were used in the current research, and 17 attendance determinants, including game duration (γ =4.45, p<.05), were identified as having a significant impact on the number of spectators. Furthermore, by confirming the hierarchical structure of the attendance data, this study highlights how critical it is to utilize appropriate analytical methods. Based on these findings and statistical analysis that confirmed MLB''s current attendance decline, these results will help in the development of a number of strategies to increase or sustain team’s attendance to practitioners.

The impact of environmental barriers on attendance of outdoor and indoor professional sports: the case of the South Korean soccer, baseball and basketball leagues

PurposeThis study sought to determine if environmental barriers (i.e. air pollution, temperature and precipitation) affect outdoor (i.e. soccer and baseball) and indoor (i.e. basketball) professional sport attendance in South Korea.Design/methodology/approachBy including actual air quality, temperature and precipitation data collected from each place where the sporting events take place, this study conducted a regression analysis to examine factors that influenced outdoor and indoor sport attendance.FindingsIn outdoor sports, the estimated results suggested that soccer and baseball attendance were not affected by air pollution. Indoor sport consumers did not change their consumption behaviors in attending sports despite the presence of air pollution. In addition, there was mixed evidence on the effect of weather-related variables on attendance. Average temperature had a positive effect on baseball (outdoor) and basketball (indoor) sport attendance, indicating that the warmer the temperature, the more likely those fans were to attend the games. Average precipitation was negatively associated with outdoor (soccer) sport spectators.Originality/valueThe present study contributes to the sport environment literature by examining the impact of environmental barriers on spectators' behaviors in the context of outdoor and indoor professional sports.

The impact of dynamic ticket pricing on Major League Baseball attendance

The impact of dynamic ticket pricing on Major League Baseball attendance

The impact of dynamic ticket pricing on Major League Baseball attendance

The impact of dynamic ticket pricing on Major League Baseball attendance

Which Professional Sport Team Has the Best Marketing Performance in Driving Attendance? The Stochastic Frontier Approach

Abstract: While assessment of team-level marketing performance for a professional sport franchise is important for both the team marketer and the researcher to develop a marketing strategy and understand marketing performance, no evidence using a full set of teams for a long period of time currently exists. We propose that marketing performance can be estimated with a stochastic frontier model. Using twenty seasons of Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance data, we estimate the frontier attendance (i.e., the maximal attendance a team can reach) after controlling for factors unrelated to marketing, and we argue that the efficiency (i.e., the difference between the frontier and the actual attendance) represents the team’s marketing performance. We also test whether our estimates capture marketing performance successfully by using the honeymoon and novelty effects, both of which are clearly shown in our estimates.

A Study on the Impact of Air Pollution on the Korean Baseball Attendance

A Study on the Impact of Air Pollution on the Korean Baseball Attendance

A random coefficients mixture hidden Markov model for marketing research

The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a framework to model the time-varying effects of marketing mix variables. When employed in a panel data context, it is important to properly account for unobserved heterogeneity across individuals. We propose a new random coefficients mixture HMM (RCMHMM) that allows for flexible patterns of unobserved heterogeneity in both the state-dependent and transition parameters. The RCMHMM nests all HMMs found in the marketing literature. Results of two simulation studies demonstrate that 1) averaging across a large number of different data generating processes, the RCMHMM outperforms all its nested versions using both in-sample and out-of-sample performance and 2) the RCMHMM is more robust than its nested versions when underlying model assumptions are violated. In addition, we apply the RCMHMM to an empirical application where we examine the effectiveness of in-game promotions in increasing the short-term demand for Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. We find that the effectiveness of four promotional categories varies over the course of the season and across teams and that the RCMHMM performs best.

The H1N1 Virus and Mexican Baseball Attendance

The H1N1 Virus and Mexican Baseball Attendance

Major League Baseball Attendance

Although Major League Baseball has a long history, most studies of attendance have focused on recent years because important explanatory data, such as ticket prices, are often missing for earlier periods. This study fills gaps in the data by analyzing individual team attendance records between 1904 and 2012. If important missing variables are determined using common factors that can influence between-team attendance, the attendance function can be estimated by a panel factor model. Our results indicate that the determinants of fans’ attendance decisions have changed over time. In earlier years (1904-1957), the home team’s win record was the only significant team characteristic influencing attendance. However, in recent years (1958-2012), outcome uncertainty, size, and quality of the stadium, and playing styles have also influenced fan attendance.

Baseball's new frontier: a history of expansion, 1961-1998

When Major League Baseball first expanded in 1961 with the addition of the Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Senators, it started a trend that saw the number of franchises almost double, from sixteen to thirty, while baseball attendance grew by 44 percent. The story behind this staggering growth, told for the first time in Baseball's New Frontier, is full of twists and unexpected turns, intrigue, and, in some instances, treachery. From the desertion of New York by the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants to the ever-present threat of antitrust legislation, from the backroom deals and the political posturing to the impact of the upstart Continental League, the book takes readers behind the scenes and into baseball's decision-making process. Fran Zimniuch gives a lively team-by-team chronicle of how the franchises were awarded, how existing teams protected their players, and what the new teams' winning (or losing) strategies were. With its account of great players, notable characters, and the changing fortunes of teams over the years, the book supplies a vital chapter in the history of Major League Baseball.

A panel data analysis of the impacts of regional economic factors, marketing and promotions, and team performance on minor league baseball attendance

Using panel data for the period 2007–2011, this study seeks to identify key economic, promotions, team performance, and other determinants of attendance at minor league baseball games in the Carolina League, which consists of teams from eight metropolitan areas. The PLS, Fixed-Effects estimations identify several promotions that successfully attract fans. These include fireworks displays and both high-value and low-value merchandise promotions, food and drink specials, family/group general admission ticket discounts, and beer discounts. Furthermore, those venues with higher per capita incomes and larger populations tend to have higher attendance levels. There is evidence that higher average ticket prices reduce attendance. There also is evidence that team performance in the form of winning and greater total runs scored per game attracts fans: teams with better win–loss records have higher attendance, as do home teams that play in higher scoring games. There is evidence that home teams committing more fielding errors experience a modest decline in attendance. Attendance appears to be higher on the Memorial Day, July 4, and Labor Day weekends. Finally, attendance is sensitive to scheduling. Games scheduled for Fridays and Saturdays and during July have much higher attendance, whereas games on Mondays and Tuesdays have much lower attendance.

Attendance Effects of Star Pitchers in Major League Baseball

While the determinants of Major League Baseball attendance have been thoroughly researched, the literature is conspicuously incomplete in regard to the attendance effects of star players. Addressing two concerns in the research, this study develops two measures of players’ star power and, analyzing within-season fluctuations in game attendance from 1969-2010, demonstrates a positive and statistically significant relationship between attendance and varying gradations of star power of the home and visiting teams’ starting pitchers. Using over four decades worth of data, the results of this study also suggest that fan responsiveness to star players has declined considerably over time.

The price of efficiency: examining the effects of payroll efficiency on Major League Baseball attendance

From 1998 to 2008, the Oakland Athletics were the most payroll efficient team in Major League Baseball (MLB), recording the 5th highest win percentage despite having the 7th lowest payroll to work with. Their remarkable success has been widely attributed to the innovative strategies employed by general manager Billy Beane designed to identify undervalued statistics and players. However, these strategies also had the unintended effect of diminishing fan interest. An estimated 1600 fans per game were lost as a result of these payroll efficiency strategies, which produce teams composed of young, relatively unknown players and game tactics perceived as less exciting than more traditional approaches.

Major League Baseball Attendance and the Role of Fantasy Baseball

Many explanations exist for the resurgence of the Major League Baseball (MLB) fan base following the 1994-1995 strike. The most prevalent explanations include the 1998 McGuire-Sosa homerun race and Cal Ripken Jr.’s consecutive games record. While such explanations certainly impacted fan interest in the sport, it is remiss to ignore the impact of online fantasy baseball leagues, which surfaced in 1997. This article examines the extent to which participating in a fantasy baseball league influences the MLB game attendance. The results strongly suggest that fantasy baseball participation positively influences MLB game attendance.

Top Prospects and Minor League Baseball Attendance

Minor League Baseball attracts over 40 million fans a year. One potentially important attendance draw is the ability for a fan to see a future major league baseball star. Each year Baseball America, a leading industry publication, ranks 100 top prospects that have yet to play substantially in the major leagues. Many of these top prospects continue to develop for a year or more in the minor leagues, which gives fans an opportunity to see potential future Major League Baseball (MLB) stars at their local minor league club. The authors use a data set encompassing all AA and AAA minor league baseball teams from 1992 to 2009 to estimate the impact of having a top 100 Baseball America prospect on a minor league team’s attendance. Their results suggest that only those prospects ranked in the top 5 and at the highest level (AAA) have an impact on their team’s attendance and their impact on attendance is small.

War Games: The Business of Major League Baseball during World War II

The 1941 winter Major League Baseball meetings in Chicago promised to be an important event. Throughout the 1941 season, Donald Barnes, the president of the American League's St. Louis Browns, laid the groundwork with his fellow owners to approve the move of his struggling franchise from St. Louis to Los Angeles for the 1942 season. Barnes accounted for everything, securing agreements and arranging to pay a fee to the Pacific Coast League for expansion into its territory. It appeared that everyone wanted the relocation to happen, and the city of Los Angeles offered the Browns a financial guarantee of five hundred thousand spectators per year, a figure nearly three times the Browns' 1941 attendance, with the city paying the difference if attendance was below that level. Even the National League St. Louis Cardinals contributed, paying the Browns two hundred thousand dollars to cover moving expenses and taking over their lease at Sportsman's Park, the stadium the two teams shared. Everything was in place for a mere formality of a vote scheduled for Monday, December 8. The events of December 7, 1941, changed all that, suddenly and forcibly dragging the United States into the war raging in Europe and Asia, and dashing Barnes's dream of bringing Major League Baseball to the west coast. (1) The mythology of baseball is a combination of fact and fiction, fiction that sometimes stretches the truth and sometimes is a complete fabrication. Due to the game's long-standing popularity, some of its myths are embraced as facts, even in the face of contrary evidence. This is particularly evident in writings about the role of Major League Baseball during World War II, with historians consistently celebrating the game's contributions to the American war effort. However, a critical evaluation of the relationship between Major League Baseball, society, and America's leaders during World War II reveals a sport presenting an image of patriotism, but acting to maintain the status quo and protect profits. BACKGROUND Baseball and the Military Baseball has long and deep associations with the military. Union soldiers took their baseball equipment on campaign during the Civil War, and the game was played by troops during and following the Spanish-American War of 1898. (2) When the United States entered World War I in 1917, the popularity of Major League Baseball was already firmly established, though the league suffered a backlash from a population that wondered why professional athletes remained safe at home playing a game while millions of men mobilized to fight and die in Europe. Despite the criticisms, the game itself remained a favorite within the military, whose leaders viewed it as a means for conditioning and teaching teamwork. (3) Baseball at the Outbreak of World War II Major League Baseball's attendance peaked at 10.1 million in 1930, and although the depression years reduced it as much as 40 percent, by 1940 attendance was once again on the verge of exceeding 10 million fans per season. (4) This was imperative in an industry that earned the majority of its revenue through ticket sales, which generated roughly $19.6 million in income for the league's teams in 1940. (5) Despite the popularity of the game and high attendance, profitability remained elusive, and every year during the 1930s saw a minimum of five teams reporting net operating losses. (6) This is misleading, however, as many owners also served as executives with their franchises, so even though a team lost money the owner still often received a salary. The establishment of a commissioner in 1920 helped rid the game of gambling scandals and brought stability to the business relationships between the owners, though it failed to remove baseball's greatest blemish, racial segregation. Overall, Major League Baseball remained very popular in American society, and its top players received treatment similar to that of the top stars in other entertainment industries, something many viewed as moving fans away from loyalty to specific teams and towards individual players. …

Determinants of Minor League Baseball Attendance

Like Major League Baseball (MLB), minor league baseball attendance may be influenced by the quality of the team. We use a data set encompassing all A, AA, and AAA minor league teams from 1992 to 2006 and find a positive relationship between a minor league team’s winning percentage and attendance. We also find evidence that minor and MLB are substitutes as increased ticket prices for the nearest MLB team lead to higher minor league attendance if that team is within 100 miles. Similarly, we find that during the MLB strike, minor league attendance increased. Finally, we find that a local or regional MLB team’s winning percentage only has a positive impact on minor league attendance when they are affiliated clubs.