Base Scenario Research Articles

Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas

For many fish stocks, such as Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in China, size composition data are more accessible than catch data. Varied results can arise when different length-based stock assessment models are applied to these data, and fishery managers often need to reconcile conflicting estimates of population status. Superensemble modeling, a relatively recent innovation in fish stock assessments commonly used in other fields, may provide an effective solution to resolving uncertainties among the results from multiple length-based models. To verify potential for this approach to improve estimates of population status, we applied ensemble modeling to fit simulated data of P. argenteus and S. taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas using predictions from a length-based integrated mixed effects (LIME) and length-based spawning potential ratio (LB-SPR) models as covariables in a superensemble model developed in this study. All simulation modeling of P. argenteus and S. taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas was conducted using the operating model in the R package LIME. Initially, the LIME and LB-SPR performances were tested separately under three scenarios of fishing mortality and recruitment variability (“equilibrium scenario,” “endogenous scenario,” and “one-way base scenario”). Then, estimates of spawning potential ratio (SPR) were combined with the superensemble models (a linear model, a support vector machines, a random forest and a boosted regression tree). We trained our superensemble models with 80% of the simulated data and tested them with the remaining 20%. Our results showed that superensemble modeling substantially improved the estimates of SPR, with support vector machines performing the best at estimating population status: precision improved by 12.7% for S. taty and 8% for P. argenteus on average (namely, median absolute proportional error decreased by 0.127 and 0.08 on average) compared to the individual models. This finding has important implications for fisheries management in the context of species for which catch data are unavailable. Applying the size composition survey data, the results from support vector machines superensemble model suggested that neither S. taty nor P. argenteus in the Bohai Sea in 2019 are overfished, but the stock status of P. argenteus warrants vigilant monitoring.

Environmental performance of microalgae hydrothermal liquefaction: Life cycle assessment and improvement insights for a sustainable renewable diesel

The potential environmental impacts of bio-oil production from algal biomass via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and its upgrading in renewable diesel were obtained. The gate-to-gate boundary was applied to obtain 1 MJ of energy as the functional unit. Marine eutrophication was the most impacted category due to N emission from the aqueous phase. In other categories, the HTL process was more harmful to the environment due to heat demand, and bio-oil upgrading contributed to 79% of the environmental impacts in the climate change category. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of the residual heat recovery in the HTL reactor, indicating the potential to reduce up to 52% of impacts on marine ecotoxicity with a 10% increase in this parameter. Finally, a new scenario was proposed to reduce the heat input into the HTL reactor and recirculate the aqueous phase after dilution. Results demonstrated a 45% reduction in the potential environmental impacts and a 2x greater energy balance than the base scenario. In the new scenario was emitted 0.1349 kg of CO2 eq per MJ. In the damage assessment, the new scenario caused less damage than the base scenario, showing the benefits of the proposed improvements. When comparing the bio-oil from the new scenario with the conventional diesel, damage in the resource scarcity category was decreased by 6x. The environmental sustainability of microalgae biotechnology for bio-oil obtention through HTL still has to be improved, especially concerning subproducts valorization and heat recovery in the reaction.

Evolution of the Seismic Response of Monopile-Supported Offshore Wind Turbines of Increasing Size from 5 to 15 MW including Dynamic Soil-Structure Interaction

As a result of wind power’s expansion over the globe, offshore wind turbines (OWTs) are being projected in seismic prone areas. In parallel, the industry develops increasingly larger and more powerful generators. Many of the seismic response analyses of wind turbines conducted so far only consider smaller units. In this paper, a finite element substructuring model in frequency domain is used to compute the seismic response of four reference OWTs from 5 to 15 MW founded on monopiles embedded in several homogeneous soil profiles with shear wave velocities from 100 to 300 m/s and subjected to different accelerograms. The foundation behaviour is obtained through a continuum model including kinematic and inertial interaction. The relevance of soil-structure interaction and main trends of the seismic response of OWTs are inferred from the presented results. Although the seismic maximum bending moments increase with the size of the OWT system, their relevance with respect to the ones produced by design loads decreases as the turbine gets bigger. The same effect is observed for the shear forces if the soil is soft enough. The inclusion of SSI effects almost duplicates the seismic response when compared to the rigid base scenario.

Economic efficiency and targeting of the African Great Green Wall

Land degradation in the Sahel threatens livelihoods and food security. The Great Green Wall programme is a colossal initiative to restore 100 million hectares of degraded ecosystems across 11 countries in the region, which started in 2007 to also promote sustainable development and climate change mitigation. We evaluated the economic costs and benefits of future land restoration projects under this programme. We applied different scenarios that account for both market-priced and non-market benefits from restored ecosystems and consider the heterogeneity of local decision-making contexts in terms of investment planning horizons, discount rates, and the time needed for the restored ecosystems to start yielding their benefits in full. The results show that every US dollar invested into land restoration yields on average US$1.2 under the base scenario, ranging from US$1.1 to US$4.4 across the scenarios. At most, ten years are needed for land restoration activities to break even from the social perspective, accounting for both market-priced and non-market ecosystem benefits. To fund all proposed land restoration activities, an investment of US$44 billion is needed under the base scenario (US$18–70 billion across scenarios). Violent conflicts in the Sahel are estimated to reduce the accessibility to these degraded ecosystems from 27.9 million hectares to 14.1 million hectares. The study highlights activities and locations where land restoration is both economically attractive and ecologically sustainable, even after accounting for lower survival rates of planted trees and grasses, persistence of land degradation drivers and the growing number of violent conflicts hindering land restoration in the Sahel. This information can help improve the targeting of future land restoration activities in the region. A cost–benefit analysis of land restoration in the African Great Green Wall shows that, under a range of assumptions, the investment makes economic sense at a regional level, despite the differences across countries and biomes.

Cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of production and consumption of pulses in the United States

Environmental impact associated with production and consumption of pulses in the United States was evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). The system boundary was set to cradle-to-grave with a functional unit of 60 g (dry basis) of pulses consumed in a US household. Varieties of pulses modeled in the study included field pea (Pisum sativum), lentil (Lens culinaris), chickpea (Cicer arietinum), and dry bean. Three methods of cooking pulses at the consumer stage tested in the study were cooking in open vessel on electric cooking range (OVC), cooking in stovetop pressure cooker on electric cooking range (SPC), and cooking in electric pressure cooker (EPC). OVC formed the base scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. The environmental impact of pulses varied with type of pulse crop, cooking method, and the batch size. Consumption of approximately 60 g of dry pulses resulted in the greatest environmental impact for OVC. The consumer stage contributed at least 83, 81, 76, 75, and 87 percent for global warming potential (GWP), fossil resource scarcity (FRS), water consumption (WC), freshwater eutrophication (FE), and marine eutrophication (ME), respectively for this scenario. EPC resulted in the greatest decrease in the environmental impact, compared to OVC, for GWP, FRS, FE, and ME for all pulse varieties, which was validated in the uncertainty analysis. SPC, on the other hand, decreased the impact across these categories only for chickpea and dry bean. The uncertainty analysis suggested that the differences associated with cooking methods in the mean land use and water consumption scores of pulses were statistically non-significant. The impact categories were also highly sensitive to the mass of pulses cooked in a batch. Increasing the reference flow in OVC to 1 kg decreased the environmental impact of pulses by 49–87 percent for all impact categories, excluding land use. Overall, the study identified the consumer stage as the hotspot for environmental impact in the supply chain of pulses in the United States. The large contribution of the consumer stage to the overall environmental impact of pulses was attributed to electricity consumption for cooking and associated upstream emissions.

Artificial Shortage in Agricultural Supply Chains

Problem definition: Price surge of essential commodities despite inventory availability, due to artificial shortage, presents a serious threat to food security in many countries. To protect consumers’ welfare, governments intervene reactively with either (i) cash subsidy, to increase consumers’ purchasing power by directly transferring cash; or (ii) supply allocation, to increase product availability by importing the commodity from foreign markets and selling it at subsidized rates. Academic/practical relevance: This paper develops a new behavioral game-theoretic model to examine the supply chain and market dynamics that engender artificial shortage as well as to analyze the effectiveness of various government interventions in improving consumer welfare. Methodology: We analyze a three-stage dynamic game between the government and the trader. We fully characterize the market equilibrium and the resulting consumer welfare under the base scenario of no government intervention as well as under each of the interventions being studied. Results: The analysis demonstrates the disparate effects of different interventions on artificial shortage; whereas supply allocation schemes often mitigate shortage, cash subsidy can inadvertently aggravate shortage in the market. Furthermore, empirical analysis with actual data on onion prices in India shows that the proposed model explains the data well and provides specific estimates on the implied artificial shortage. A counterfactual analysis quantifies the potential impacts of government interventions on market outcomes. Managerial implications: The analysis shows that reactive government interventions with supply allocation schemes can have a preemptive effect to reduce the trader’s incentive to create artificial shortage. Although cash subsidy schemes have recently gained wide popularity in many countries, we caution governments to carefully consider the strategic responses of different stakeholders in the supply chain when implementing cash subsidy schemes.

Techno-economic analysis of fixed-bed chemical looping for decentralized, fuel-cell-grade hydrogen production coupled with a 3 MWth biogas digester

Decentralized hydrogen production is a promising pathway to use locally available, renewable resources and establish regional value chains. The present work proofs fixed-bed chemical looping (CL) as an efficient and economically favorable option for high-purity hydrogen production from biogas in decentralized systems.In a thermodynamic evaluation, the most important parameters for a high process efficiency and hydrogen purity were identified. The cold gas efficiency (CGE) for hydrogen production from biogas was estimated as 60–78%. An external recirculation was found to increase the CGE by +44%rel. for the predominant Fe–FeO conversion step. Carbon formation in the reduction phase was suppressed at an O/R ratio above 1.2, which is mandatory for high-purity hydrogen production. A pinch analysis proofed the full thermal integration of the process independent of the varied process parameters.The economic feasibility was ascertained based on a case scenario for hydrogen production at a 3 MWth biogas plant. In addition, the impact of various system parameters such as capital costs, oxygen carrier costs and lifetime, and feedstock costs were evaluated. The system efficiency for hydrogen production was estimated at 62.5%, uncoupling the excess heat for district heating increased the overall system efficiency up to 84%.The costs for hydrogen production were estimated at 2.27 € kgH2−1 in the base scenario, whereby the costs of the hydrogen product including feedstock costs were estimated at 4.6–6.2 € kgH2−1. The results indicate that fixed-bed chemical looping represents a competitive option for economically sustainable biogas conversion.

Comparative life cycle assessment of cross laminated timber building and concrete building with special focus on biogenic carbon

This study conducted a consequential Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) on two similar mid-rise apartment buildings applying either concrete or cross laminated timber (CLT) as the main structural material. The study further investigated inclusion of biogenic carbon and how this affects environmental impacts related to Global warming. Thus, two assessment scenarios were applied: A Base scenario, without accounting for biogenic carbon and a Biogenic carbon scenario that include a GWPbio factor to account for the use of biogenic carbon. The CLT building had the lowest impact score in 11 of 18 impact categories including Global warming. Operational energy use was the main contributor to the total impact with some variation across impact scores, but closely followed by impacts embodied in materials (incl. End-of-Life). An evaluation of the potential forest transformations required for fulfilling future projections for new building construction in 2060 showed that about 3% of current global forest area would be needed. This share was essentially independent of the selected building material as the main driver for forest transformation was found to be energy use during building operation. Thus, focus should primarily be on reducing deforestation related to energy generation rather than deforestation from production of building materials.

Estimation of health impact from digitalizing last-mile Logistics Management Information Systems (LMIS) in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Mozambique: A Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model analysis.

BackgroundDigital health has become a widely recognized approach to addressing a range of health needs, including advancing universal health coverage and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. At present there is limited evidence on the impact of digital interventions on health outcomes. A growing body of peer-reviewed evidence on digitalizing last-mile electronic logistics management information systems (LMIS) presents an opportunity to estimate health impact.MethodsThe impact of LMIS on reductions in stockouts was estimated from primary data and peer-reviewed literature, with three scenarios of impact: 5% stockout reduction (conservative), 10% stockout reduction (base), and 15% stockout reduction (optimistic). Stockout reduction data was inverted to stock availability and improved coverage for vaccines and essential medicines using a 1:1 conversion factor. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model was used to estimate health impact from lives saved in newborns and children in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia between 2022 and 2026 across the three scenarios.ResultsImproving coverage of vaccines with a digital LMIS intervention in the base scenario (conservative, optimistic) could prevent 4,924 (2,578–6,094), 3,998 (1,621–4,915), and 17,648 (12,656–22,776) deaths in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, respectively over the forecast timeframe. In addition, scaling up coverage of non-vaccine medications could prevent 17,044 (8,561–25,392), 21,772 (10,976–32,401), and 34,981 (17,543–52,194) deaths in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, respectively. In the base model scenario, the maximum percent reduction in deaths across all geographies was 1.6% for vaccines and 4.1% for non-vaccine medications.InterpretationThis study projects that digitalization of last-mile LMIS would reduce child mortality by improving coverage of lifesaving health commodities. This analysis helps to build the evidence base around the benefits of deploying digital solutions to address health challenges. Findings should be interpreted carefully as stockout reduction estimates are derived from a small number of studies.

Modeling for policy: Managing volatile oil windfalls in a resource-rich developing country

Designing policies for allocating revenues from natural resources is one of the most challenging issues faced by policy makers in resource-rich economies. This paper proposes different scenarios for optimizing crude oil revenues through the application and extension of a dynamic general equilibrium model in Iran. Under the base scenario, the government budget includes a predetermined percentage of revenues while in the policy scenario, three mechanisms involving savings, investments and revenue stabilization features are modeled separately. The simulation results for the base scenario show that the percentage changes in government revenue and economic growth are influenced by oil revenue fluctuations. However, in the policy scenario the mechanism proposed strengthens both government budgets and economic growth. The results of this scenario show a gradual decline over time in the reliance of government budgets on oil revenues while revenue from taxes broadens the budget base. Policy-wise, it can be argued that if governments adhere to the designed mechanisms, changes in oil revenues would not affect a country's macroeconomic variables. Also, having a sustainable revenue stream for the government and securing the real economic sectors against oil revenue shocks would enhance the benefits from natural resource endowments.

Technical and Economic Assessments of a novel biomass-to-synthetic natural gas (SNG) process integrating O2-enriched air gasification

To develop a solution for clean gas supply and biomass utilization and indirect renewable power storage, this work proposes a novel SNG process integrating O2-enriched air gasification with O2 purity range of 80–96%. Low-cost vacuum pressure swing adsorption (VPSA) is integrated to produce O2 with purities of 80% and 90%; while cryogenic air separation (CAS) is applied for 96% O2 purity. Besides SNG, the syngas of the methanation product without CO2 separation (SG) is considered as a new type of safe fuel for rural areas. The technical and economic assessments are successively performed based on simulation data. The effects of important operating variables on technical performances are investigated to determine the optimal values. The overall energy and exergy efficiencies of SG reach 68.37% and 62.59%, respectively, while those of SNG achieve 65.69% and 60.38%, respectively. The equivalent unit product costs of SG and SNG are 1.661 ¥/Nm3 and 2.031 ¥/Nm3 at base scenario, respectively, which are quite profitable. The sensitivity analysis of the cost indicates that the products has strong cost competitiveness within the actual fluctuations, and the constraints for SG is much looser than that for SNG to gain profit. The process integrating VPSA has obvious advantages in efficiencies and unit production cost, which come with the price of visible disadvantages in CH4 concentration and higher heating value (HHV). The work is a representative reference for the countries lacking natural gas and valuable to guide the development of O2-enrich air gasifier, process optimization and indirect renewable power storage.

Determination of Optimum Envelope of Religious Buildings in Terms of Thermal Comfort and Energy Consumption: Mosque Cases

Mosques are quite different from other building types in terms of occupant type and usage schedule. For this reason, they should be evaluated differently from other building types in terms of thermal comfort and energy consumption. It is difficult and probably not even necessary to create homogeneous thermal comfort in mosques’ entire usage area, which has large volumes and various areas for different activities. Nevertheless, energy consumption should be at a minimum level. In order to ensure that mosques are minimally affected by outdoor climatic changes, the improvement of the properties of the building envelope should have the highest priority. These optimal properties of the building envelope have to be in line with thermal comfort in mosques. The proposed method will be a guide for designers and occupants in the design process of new mosques or the use of existing mosques. The effect of the thermal properties of the building envelope on energy consumption was investigated to ensure optimum energy consumption together with an acceptable thermal comfort level. For this purpose, a parametric simulation study of the mosques was conducted by varying optical and thermal properties of the building envelope for a temperature humid climate zone. The simulation results were analyzed and evaluated according to current standards, and an appropriate envelope was determined. The results show that thermal insulation improvements in the roof dome of buildings with a large volume contributed more to energy savings than in walls and foundations. The use of double or triple glazing in transparent areas is an issue that should be considered together with the solar energy gain factor. Additionally, an increasing thickness of thermal insulation in the building envelope contributed positively to energy savings. However, the energy savings rate decreased after a certain thickness. The proposed building envelope achieved a 33% energy savings compared to the base scenario.

Estimating the Smart Readiness Indicator in the Italian Residential Building Stock in Different Scenarios

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive 2018/844/EU introduced the smart readiness indicator (SRI) to provide a framework to evaluate and promote building smartness in Europe. In order to establish a methodological framework for the SRI calculation, two technical studies were launched, at the end of which a consolidated methodology to calculate the SRI of a building basing on a flexible and modular multicriteria assessment has been proposed. In this paper the authors applied the above-mentioned methodology to estimate the SRI of the Italian residential building stock in different scenarios. To this end, eight “smart building typologies”, representative of the Italian residential building stock, have been identified. For each smart building typology, the SRI was calculated in three scenarios: (a) base scenario (building stock as it is); (b) an “energy scenario” (simple energy retrofit) and (c) a “smart energy scenario” (energy retrofit from a smart perspective). It was therefore possible to estimate a national average SRI value of 5.0%, 15.7%, and 27.5% in the three above defined scenarios, respectively.

Application of pinch analysis to improve the heat integration efficiency in a crude distillation unit

In this paper, the thermal efficiency of the heat exchanger network of an existing crude distillation unit (CDU) was evaluated. The main goal is to determine how much energy savings can be achieved by network retrofitting. Energy losses are inevitable especially in process where equipment and heat integration network design are outdated. Pinch analysis method can help in minimizing the energy losses by retrofitting the heat exchanger grid and it is proven to be successful in many applications to predict more efficient heat exchanger networks. A base scenario case study was suggested to determine the maximum possible energy savings that can be achieved. In this scenario, the energy analyzer model in Aspen HYSYS was used to determine the optimum energy network that can accomplish maximum energy recovery with minimum capital cost. Another alternative was also evaluated using pinch analyzer tools in Aspen HYSYS. In this scenario, the existing heat exchanger network was optimized to determine how much energy can be recovered. All analysis conducted were based on the existing cooling and heating utilities in the plant. The results obtained indicate that around 67.5 MW of maximum cooling and heating utility can possibly be recovered compared to the existing utility load of 148.6 MW. This represents around 45% reduction in heat utility requirements. There is also an indication of substantial positive environmental impact in terms of how much reduction in the CO 2 emissions that can be achieved reaches up to 1079 kg CO 2 /h for a practical and feasible option, and up to 7840 kg CO 2 /h for grass rooting retrofitting scenario.

Modeling the Impacts of City-Scale “Ventilation Corridor” Plans on Human Exposure to Intra-Urban PM2.5 Concentrations

Increasingly, Chinese cities are proposing city-scale ventilation corridors (VCs) to strengthen wind velocities and decrease pollution concentrations, although their influences are ambiguous. To assess VC impacts, an effort has been made to predict the impact of VC solutions in the high density and diverse land use of the coastal city of Shanghai, China, in this paper. One base scenario and three VC scenarios, with various VC widths, locations, and densities, were first created. Then, the combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRFv.3.4/UCM) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQv.5.0.1) numerical simulation models were employed to comprehensively evaluate the impacts of urban spatial form and VC plans on PM2.5 concentrations. The modeling results indicated that concentrations increased within the VCs in both summer and winter, and the upwind concentration decreased in winter. These counter-intuitive results could be explained by decreased planetary boundary layer (PBL), roughness height, deposition rate, and wind speeds induced by land use and urban height modifications. PM2.5 deposition flux decreased by 15–20% in the VCs, which was attributed to the roughness height decrease for it weakens aerodynamic resistance (Ra). PBL heights within the VCs decreased 15–100 m, and the entire Shanghai’s PBL heights also decreased in general. The modeling results suggest that VCs may not be as functional as certain urban planners have presumed.

Optimizing immunization schedules in endemic cholera regions: cost-effectiveness assessment of vaccination strategies for cholera control in Bangladesh

This study is to examine the cost-effectiveness of deployment strategies of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) in controlling cholera in Bangladesh. We developed a dynamic compartment model to simulate costs and health outcomes for 12 years for four OCVs deployment scenarios: (1) vaccination of children aged one and above with two doses of OCVs, (2) vaccination of population aged 5 and above with a single dose of OCVs, (3) vaccination of children aged 1–4 with two doses of OCVs; and (4) combined strategy of (2) and (3). We obtained all parameters from the literature and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis from both health systems and societal perspectives, in comparison with the base scenario of no vaccination.The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the four strategies from the societal perspective were $2,236, $2,250, $1,109, and $2,112 per DALY averted, respectively, with herd immunity being considered. Without herd immunity, the ICERs increased substantially for all four scenarios except for the scenario that vaccinates children aged 1–4 only. The major determinants of ICERs were the case fatality rate and the incidence of cholera, as well as the efficacy of OCVs. The projection period and frequency of administering OCVs would also affect the cost-effectiveness of OCVs. With the cut-off of 1.5 times gross domestic product per capita, the four OCVs deployment strategies are cost-effective. The combined strategy is more efficient than the strategy of vaccinating the population aged one and above with two doses of OCVs and could be considered in the resource-limited settings.

Corrigendum: Evaluation of the implications of ice‐jam flood mitigation measures

Journal of Flood Risk ManagementVolume 14, Issue 4 e12759 LETTER TO THE EDITOROpen Access Corrigendum: Evaluation of the implications of ice-jam flood mitigation measures First published: 20 September 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12759AboutSectionsPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Corrigendum for the article: Das, A. and Lindenschmidt, K.-E. (2021) Evaluation of the implications of ice-jam flood mitigation measures. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2021: e12697. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12697 Since its publication, we have replaced our exceedance probabilities P in Equation (3) with a formulation provided by Gerard and Karpuk (1979). While distributions and associated parameters to developed exceedance probabilities are well developed in open-water hydrology, there is no solid or well-developed approach for ice-affected river stages. Therefore, scientists and engineers rely on graphical or nonparametric statistical techniques, such as Weibull, Hazen, median or the formula proposed by Gerard and Karpuk (1979) to calculate exceedance probabilities. Hence, for this study, we decided to use the latter formula (Gerard & Karpuk, 1979): where m is the rank of each ice-jam water level elevation, N is the total number of simulations and X is a value exceeding x (White & Beltaos, 2008). We found that the overall conclusions do not change but that only the total annual expected damages are scaled up by a factor of approximately 3, to $11.3 million for the town of Fort McMurray, a value which is in line with a result of $10.4 million by IBI and Golder Associates Ltd. (2014). Updated Figures 7 and 8 are provided below. FIGURE 7Open in figure viewerPowerPoint Flood risk maps for different mitigation scenarios along the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray FIGURE 8Open in figure viewerPowerPoint The expected annual damages from the ensemble of flood risk maps for different mitigation scenarios at Fort McMurray The paragraph immediately before Section 4 should read: The EAD of different mitigation scenarios are demonstrated in Figure 8. The results show that artificial breakup and 250 m a.s.l dike crest elevation can reduce the most ice-jam flood risk among all the mitigation scenarios. While the base scenario has the maximum EAD, about $11.2 million, artificial breakup has an EAD of about $1.7 million. The 250 m a.s.l dike crest elevation also has a great potential to reduce the flood risk, which could reduce the EAD to $0.95 million. Although the sediment dredging scenarios could reduce the EAD to a certain level, they may be less effective compared to the other two mitigation measures, 250 m a.s.l. crest-elevation dike and artificial breakup. Moreover, the optimum result was found to be for 3 m dredging in which the EAD was reduced to about $5.8 million. Further studies, by changing the dredging location, can be applied to identify the potential of sediment dredging to reduce flood risk. The tenth line in Section 4 “Discussion and concluding remarks” should read: “… the results show that artificial breakup has the second highest potential to reduce the EAD, as the number of buildings exposed to flood risk significantly reduce in this scenario.” Open Research DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study. REFERENCES Gerard, R., & Karpuk, E. W. (1979). Probability analysis of historical flood data. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 105(9), 1153– 1165. CrossrefGoogle Scholar IBI and Golder Associates Ltd. (2014). Report feasibility study—Athabasca River Basins. Prepared for Government of Alberta—Flood recovery Task Force. Retrieved from https://open.alberta.ca/publications/35751. Google Scholar White, K., & Beltaos, S. (2008). Chapter 9: Development of ice-affected stage frequency curves. In River ice break-up. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, Co. Google Scholar Volume14, Issue4December 2021e12759 FiguresReferencesRelatedInformation

Discrete-event models for the simulation of computed tomography sectors according to hospital structural/organizational changes and expected patient arrival rates.

To analyze the types of computed tomography (CT) scanners most suitable for different hospital sizes and 'scenarios' (exam rates and structural/organizational changes), using discrete-event simulation models. CT exams were divided into stages, measured during on-site surveys at CT services in small and average size private hospitals. Ten devices in nine health units, five cities and two states of Brazil were studied to this end, and the following data were collected: Time spent in each stage for each type of exam; average monthly number of exams performed and general characteristics of exams. Three arrival rates were defined (103, 154 and 206 patients/day), representing expected demand for the studied units. From these parameters, six scenarios were simulated, consisting of changes in personnel and hospital structure (e.g., 'adding a changing room') in a base scenario (one CT, one changing room, no nursing assistance, arrival rate 1). It was possible to identify a scenario most useful for very large demands, such as large emergency hospitals in big cities, (a CT, nursing assistance and three changing rooms added to the base scenario). Another identified scenario was more adequate for small demands (adding a changing room to the base scenario). Administrative/organizational measures are a very important factor in defining productivity in a hospital imaging sector. The focus of these measures should be on detecting bottlenecks and improving processes, regardless of the type of equipment used.

Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Household Energy Systems Including Incentives on Energy Communities and Externalities: A Case Study in Italy

The building sector is one of the key energy consumers worldwide. Fuel cell micro-Cogeneration Heat and Power systems for residential and small commercial applications are proposed as one of the most promising innovations contributing to the transition towards a sustainable energy infrastructure. For the application and the diffusion of these systems, in addition to their environmental performance, it is necessary, however, to evaluate their economic feasibility. In this paper a life cycle assessment of a fuel cell/photovoltaic hybrid micro-cogeneration heat and power system for a residential building is integrated with a detailed economic analysis. Financial indicators (net present cost and payback time are used for studying two different investments: reversible-Solid Oxide Fuel Cell and natural gas SOFC in comparison to a base scenario, using a homeowner perspective approach. Moreover, two alternative incentives scenarios are analysed and applied: net metering and self-consumers’ groups (or energy communities). Results show that both systems obtain annual savings, but their high capital costs still would make the investments not profitable. However, the natural gas Solide Oxide Fuel Cell with the net metering incentive is the best scenario among all. On the contrary, the reversible-Solid Oxide Fuel Cell maximizes its economic performance only when the self-consumers’ groups incentive is applied. For a complete life cycle cost analysis, environmental impacts are monetized using three different monetization methods with the aim to internalize (considering them into direct cost) the externalities (environmental costs). If externalities are considered as an effective cost, the natural gas Solide Oxide Fuel Cell system increases its saving because its environmental impact is lower than in the base case one, while the reversible-Solid Oxide Fuel Cell system reduces it.

Pharmacy-based screening to detect persons at elevated risk of type 2 diabetes: a cost-utility analysis

BackgroundEarly identification of people at elevated risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is an important step in preventing or delaying its onset. Pharmacies can serve as a significant channel to reach these people. This study aimed to assess the potential health economic impact of screening and recruitment services in pharmacies in referring people to preventive interventions.MethodsA decision analytic model was constructed to perform a cost-utility analysis of the expected national health economic consequences (in terms of costs and quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) of a hypothetical pharmacy-based service where people screened and recruited through pharmacies would participate in a digital lifestyle program. Cost-effectiveness was considered in terms of net monetary benefit (NMB). In addition, social return on investment (SROI) was calculated as the ratio of the intervention and recruitment costs and the net present value of expected savings. Payback time was the time taken to reach the break-even point in savings. In the base scenario, a 20-year time horizon was applied. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were applied to study robustness of the results.ResultsIn the base scenario, the expected savings from the pharmacy-based screening and recruitment among the reached target cohort were 255.3 m€ (95% CI − 185.2 m€ to 717.2 m€) in pharmacy visiting population meaning 1412€ (95% CI − 1024€ to 3967€) expected savings per person. Additionally, 7032 QALYs (95% CI − 1344 to 16,143) were gained on the population level. The intervention had an NMB of 3358€ (95% CI − 1397€ to 8431€) using a cost-effectiveness threshold of 50,000 €/QALY. The initial costs were 122.2 m€ with an SROI of 2.09€ (95% CI − 1.52€ to 5.88€). The expected payback time was 10 and 8 years for women and men, respectively. Results were most sensitive for changes in effectiveness of the intervention and selected discount rate.ConclusionsT2D screening and recruitment to prevention programs conducted via pharmacies was a dominant option providing both cost savings and QALY gains. The highest savings can be potentially reached by targeting recruitment at men at elevated risk of T2D.