Base Rate Research Articles

Algorithms for Operationalizing Mild Cognitive Impairment Using the Spanish-Language NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery.

Neuropsychologists would benefit from flexible methods for operationalizing psychometric cognitive impairment in Spanish-speaking examinees that vary in association with intelligence, education, and sociocultural characteristics. The current study combined low and high score base rates (BRs) for the Spanish-language NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery (NIHTB-CB) to identify score combinations that are uncommon within different stratifications of the normative sample and may indicate cognitive impairment. The Spanish-language NIHTB-CB normative sample included 250 healthy Latinx adults with complete data on two crystallized and five fluid cognitive tests (M = 38.8 ± 13.7years old, 72.0% women). Test performances were converted into age-adjusted and demographically adjusted normed scores, adjusting for age, gender, and education. The frequencies at which participants obtained one or more low scores or few to no high scores on fluid cognitive tests were combined into algorithms that occurred at BRs approximately 1 SD (~16%) or 1.5 SDs (~7%) below the mean. Algorithms are provided for age-adjusted and demographically adjusted scores, with BRs stratified by crystallized ability, education, and sociocultural characteristics. Using demographically adjusted norms, the BR of obtaining any one of the following, 5 scores <50th, 4+ scores ≤25th, 3+ scores ≤16th, or 2+ scores ≤9th percentile, approximates 1 SD below the mean in participants born (BR = 16.2%) or educated abroad (BR = 18.6%), who are monolingual Spanish speakers (BR = 16.4%) or who reside in low-income households (BR = 13.6%). These algorithms offer a flexible approach to operationalizing psychometric cognitive impairment, through which different definitions can be applied to different examinees based on varying crystallized ability, education, and sociocultural characteristics.

THE IMPACT OF IJARAH/LEASE FINANCING ON MALAYSIAN ISLAMIC BANK PERFORMANCE

Ijarah (lease contract) is one of the essential financing contracts offered by Islamic banking institutions to meet the demand of the clients. This study investigates the impact of Ijarah financing on Islamic bank performance in Malaysia for the period from 2004-2018 using Fixed and Random Effect Models. Ijarah financing (IJFA) which becomes the focus variable of this study with other six independent variables; operating efficiency (EXTA), bank size (LTA), total financing (TFTA), base rate (BR), consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product (GDP) were regressed against return on asset (ROA) and net profit margin (NPM). The results show that Ijarah financing has a positive and significant impact on NPM. The findings suggest that Islamic banks should increase their portfolio of Ijarah financing and this is also support the concentration strategy used by banks in improving Islamic bank performances. An increase in demand for Ijarah financing will increase Islamic banks performance and this reflects that Ijarah financing as an asset creation tool that banks prefer particularly for generating income.

Univariate and Multivariate Base Rates of Score Elevations, Reliable Change, and Inter-Rater Discrepancies in the BRIEF-A Standardization Samples.

The Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function-Adult Version (BRIEF-A) is a standardized rating scale of subjective executive functioning. We provide univariate and multivariate base rates (BRs) for scale/index scores in the clinical range (T scores ≥65), reliable change, and inter-rater information not included in the Professional Manual. Participants were adults (ages = 18-90 years) from the BRIEF-A self-report (N = 1,050) and informant report (N = 1,200) standardization samples, as well as test-retest (n = 50 for self, n = 44 for informant) and inter-rater (n = 180) samples. Univariate BRs of elevated T scores were low (self-report = 3.3%-15.4%, informant report = 4.5%-16.3%). Multivariate BRs revealed the common occurrence of obtaining at least one elevated T-score across scales (self-report = 26.5%-37.3%, informant report = 22.7%-30.3%), whereas virtually none had elevated scores on all scales. Test-retest scores were highly correlated (self = .82-.94; informant = .91-.96). Inter-rater correlations ranged from .44 to .68. Significant (p < .05) test-retest T-score differences ranged from 7 to 12 for self-report, from 6 to 8 for informant report, and from 16 to 21 points for inter-rater T-score differences. Applications of these findings are discussed.

THE IMPACT OF IJARAH/LEASE FINANCING ON MALAYSIAN ISLAMIC BANK PERFORMANCE

Ijarah (lease contract) is one of the essential financing contracts offered by Islamic banking institutions to meet the demand of the clients. This study investigates the impact of Ijarah financing on Islamic bank performance in Malaysia for the period from 2004-2018 using Fixed and Random Effect Models. Ijarah financing (IJFA) which becomes the focus variable of this study with other six independent variables; operating efficiency (EXTA), bank size (LTA), total financing (TFTA), base rate (BR), consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product (GDP) were regressed against return on asset (ROA) and net profit margin (NPM). The results show that Ijarah financing has a positive and significant impact on NPM. The findings suggest that Islamic banks should increase their portfolio of Ijarah financing and this is also support the concentration strategy used by banks in improving Islamic bank performances. An increase in demand for Ijarah financing will increase Islamic banks performance and this reflects that Ijarah financing as an asset creation tool that banks prefer particularly for generating income.

The MCMI-IV: A New Normal Quartet for Parental Fitness Litigants

The Millon series (i.e., MCMI-II/MCMI-III) has a longstanding history of use in clinical and forensic settings. For forensic psychologists, the Millon series can serve as a unique tool in evaluations related to parental fitness due to its incorporation of DSM diagnostic categories and the use of base rate (BR) scores. There is limited research on parental fitness populations broadly, though previous research has found a common positive impression management style referred to as the normal quartet with forensic populations on the MCMI-III. It is unknown if there is a continued presence of the normal quartet in the MCMI-IV, published in 2015. With the current study, we examined parental fitness litigant response patterns on the MCMI-IV and assessed the presence of a normal quartet. The sample consisted of 330 parental fitness litigants in the northeast region of the United States. Results of the current study suggest a new normal quartet: elevations on the Desirability (Y), Histrionic (4A), Turbulent (4B), and Compulsive (7) scales. The clinical implications for the use of the MCMI-IV by forensic psychologists with parental fitness litigants are discussed including limitations and areas for future research.

Applying Game Theory to Mortgage Framework

To some, the retail banking market is considered an oligopoly. This is not healthy for a country’s economy and its people because it is important for competition to thrive in the banking industry. Any form of market failure or anti-competitive behaviour affects productive efficiency, consumer welfare and economic growth. With the introduction of the Base Rate (BR) to replace the Base Lending Rate (BLR), Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) seeks to inject transparency into the mortgage framework. Under this system, banks will have to disclose their margins and are not allowed to loan below the BR just to attract customers and boost loan growth. This new framework will allow customers to make better financial decisions whilst having little impact on borrowers. Even though this only applies to personal home loans, it still poses a challenge to competing banks. Those with a seemingly strong niche in consumer financing will be able to offer more attractive and competitive BR leading to better Effective Lending Rates (ELR). This paper proposes using Game Theory (GT) as a method to predict probable outcomes in strategic interactions for BR revision. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) will then provide a means of weighing the probabilities of the contributing factors. With the ability to anticipate the competition’s next moves in a quantifiable manner, strategists will be better prepared in understanding and navigating the complex banking system.

Suspiciously slow: timed digit span as an embedded performance validity measure in a sample of veterans with mTBI

ABSTRACTObjective: To explore the utility of Timed Digit Span (TDS) as an embedded performance validity test (PVT) in a sample of veterans with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). We hypothesize that TDS will predict PVT failure on an established stand-alone measure (Trial 1 of the Test of Memory Malingering; TOMM).Methods: TDS was compared to Digit Span accuracy (DS), using TOMM as a criterion measure, in a sample of 99 veterans with mTBI. Correlation and regression were used to characterize associations between PVTs. Logistic regression was utilized to examine the relationship between embedded PVTs and the odds of TOMM failure. Classification accuracy of TDS was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Predictive power of TDS to estimate TOMM failure was calculated for the current sample and for hypothetical populations with common base rates (BRs).Outcomes: TDS significantly predicted failure on the TOMM and added greater incremental predictive value to the model compared to DS accuracy. Estimates of the predictive power of TDS were calculated using observed and hypothetical BRs. Sensitivity to stand-alone PVT, failure was 38% when specificity was set at 90%.Conclusion: TDS offers a promising embedded PVT method, given its strong convergence with an established stand-alone PVT.

Brief iPad-Based Assessment of Cognitive Functioning with ImPACT® Pediatric

ABSTRACTImPACT® Pediatric is an examiner-administered iOS-based battery of neuropsychological tests designed to measure neurocognitive functioning in children ages 5–11. This study documented Multivariate Base Rates (prevalence of low scores when multiple test scores are considered simultaneously) in the ImPACT® Pediatric standardization sample (N = 892). In the total sample, it was common for children to obtain at least one low factor score using the 25th percentile [T 43; base rate (BR) = 54.2%], 16th percentile (T40, BR = 38.1%), and the 10th percentile (T37, BR = 31.1%). However, it was uncommon for children to obtain two (or more) low factor scores using any of the above-listed cutoff score.

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF COMMERCIAL PROPERTY FINANCING: THE POTENTIAL OF ISLAMIC FINANCING

The construction sector in Malaysia grew at 8.1% from 2013 to 2016 supported by the growth in commercial property and the residential sectors at 12.5% and 9.8% respectively and has been on an increasing trend since the last four years (2013: 10.9%, 2014: 11.6%, 2015: 12.1 %, 2016: 10.3%) (Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2016). The Knight and Frank survey 2015 reported that commercial property financing comprised of 60% of properties priced at more than RM2 million and another 40% for properties priced below RM2 million. Commercial property prices have been on an increasing trend due to increased cost and interest rates as well as uncertain economic fundamentals. For Malaysia, interest rates (BLR) differ across banks ranging from 6.6% to 6.9% and the base rate (BR) ranges from 3.0% to 4.1% due to economic bubbles. Commercial property financing remains a vital issue for borrowers of both conventional and Islamic banks. For borrowers of conventional banks, an increase in interest rates means higher monthly installments which in turns may increase the default risk particularly in times of economic uncertainties. For borrowers of Islamic banks, although the financing is interest-free, the pricing of commercial property financing is still benchmarked against the conventional interest rates. This study highlights the problems that arise when Islamic financing still relies on the interest rates. In macroeconomic theory, financing strongly depends on the movement of the interest rates. In contrast, Islam prohibits interest due to the existence of price manipulations by some parties, considered as unfair, and the lack of risk- sharing mechanism. Therefore, this study seeks to gather opinions from Islamic scholars on the acceptability of using interest rates in determining commercial property rentals as well as identifying a potential Islamic financing model where the features of the potential Islamic financing model are discussed.

Alternative profit rate shariah-compliant for islamic banking

Profit is the aims for Islamic banking and conventional banking. Determination of profit in Islamic banking in Malaysia depends on the profit rate, whereas profit rate is essentially from reference rate which is known as the base rate (BR). However, the determination of the components contained in the BR such as benchmark cost of funds and the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) is non-compliance with the Shariah because its directly proportional to the overnight policy rate (OPR). Therefore, an alternative formula for the profit rate are proposed which is known as the base profit rate (BPR). Construction of BPR formula is based on the principle that are more Shariah-compliant.

Using Multivariate Base Rates to Interpret Low Scores on an Abbreviated Battery of the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System.

Executive function consists of multiple cognitive processes that operate as an interactive system to produce volitional goal-oriented behavior, governed in large part by frontal microstructural and physiological networks. Identification of deficits in executive function in those with neurological or psychiatric conditions can be difficult because the normal variation in executive function test scores, in healthy adults when multiple tests are used, is largely unknown. This study addresses that gap in the literature by examining the prevalence of low scores on a brief battery of executive function tests. The sample consisted of 1,050 healthy individuals (ages 16-89) from the standardization sample for the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS). Seven individual test scores from the Trail Making Test, Color-Word Interference Test, and Verbal Fluency Test were analyzed. Low test scores, as defined by commonly used clinical cut-offs (i.e., ≤25th, 16th, 9th, 5th, and 2nd percentiles), occurred commonly among the adult portion of the D-KEFS normative sample (e.g., 62.8% of the sample had one or more scores ≤16th percentile, 36.1% had one or more scores ≤5th percentile), and the prevalence of low scores increased with lower intelligence and fewer years of education. The multivariate base rates (BR) in this article allow clinicians to understand the normal frequency of low scores in the general population. By use of these BRs, clinicians and researchers can improve the accuracy with which they identify executive dysfunction in clinical groups, such as those with traumatic brain injury or neurodegenerative diseases.

Classification accuracy of the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory–III modifier indices in the detection of malingering in traumatic brain injury

The present study used criterion groups validation to determine the ability of the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory–III (MCMI–III) modifier indices to detect malingering in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Patients with TBI who met criteria for malingered neurocognitive dysfunction (MND) were compared to those who showed no indications of malingering. Data were collected from 108 TBI patients referred for neuropsychological evaluation. Base rate (BR) scores were used for MCMI–III modifier indices: Disclosure, Desirability, and Debasement. Malingering classification was based on the Slick, Sherman, and Iverson (1999) criteria for MND. TBI patients were placed in one of three groups: MND (n = 55), not-MND (n = 26), or Indeterminate (n = 26).The not-MND group had lower modifier index scores than the MND group. At scores associated with a 4% false-positive (FP) error rate, sensitivity was 47% for Disclosure, 51% for Desirability, and 55% for Debasement. Examination of joint classification analysis demonstrated 54% sensitivity at cutoffs associated with 0% FP error rate. Results suggested that scores from all MCMI–III modifier indices are useful for identifying intentional symptom exaggeration in TBI. Debasement was the most sensitive of the three indices. Clinical implications are discussed.

The Test Validation Summary

Common rates employed in classificatory testing are the true positive rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR), positive predictive power (PPP), and negative predictive power (NPP). FPR and TPR are estimated from research samples representing populations to be distinguished by classificatory testing. PPP and NPP are used by clinicians to classify test takers into populations. PPP and NPP depend on the base rate (BR) of population members in the clinician's sample. The authors introduce the test validation summary (TVS) as a means to report within a single graph the FPR and TPR and the ranges of PPP and NPP across all potential sample BRs for any chosen cut score. The authors investigate how the TVS has other applications, including the estimation of local BR for the condition of interest and the estimation of standard errors for FPR and TPR when estimated across multiple independent validation studies of the classificatory test.

Increased base rate of atrial pacing for prevention of atrial fibrillation after implantation of a dual-chamber pacemaker: insights from the Atrial Overdrive Pacing Study

Different pacing sites and various algorithms have been utilized to prevent atrial fibrillation (AF) in pacemaker recipients. However, the optimal pacing rate settings have not yet been established. In this randomized, prospective, multicentre, single-blinded, cross over study, rate-adaptive pacing at a high base rate (BR) in patients, age 60 years or above, or a history of paroxysmal AF, who underwent dual-chamber (DDD) pacemaker implantation for standard pacing indications, was evaluated for prevention of AF. In the study cohort of 145 patients implanted with DDD pacemakers with a programmable rest rate (RR) feature, the BR/RR settings were sequentially but randomly adjusted as follows: 60 bpm/Off for the baseline quarter (initial 3 months) and then to either 'A-B-C' or 'C-B-A' settings (A = 70/65 bpm, B = 70/Off, C = 80/65 bpm) for the subsequent quarters each of 3 months duration. Data on automatic mode switch episodes, device diagnostics, and a questionnaire evaluating pacemaker awareness and palpitations were collected. Ninety-nine patients, mean age 77 +/- 10 years, who completed the study protocol and followed for 12 months did not show significant differences in the number of mode switch episodes between any settings used. The percentage of atrial pacing was lower during baseline pacing compared to settings A, B, and C (P < 0.0001). Setting C produced a higher percentage of atrial pacing than A and B (P < 0.01). Although a higher percentage of atrial pacing correlated with a lower incidence of mode switch episodes, there was no statistically significant difference in the number of mode switch episodes between settings A, B, and C. There were no significant differences in the questionnaire scores relating to pacemaker awareness or palpitation. Overdrive single-site pacing in the right atrium achieved by programming analysed settings in the present study did not reduce AF as assessed by mode switch episodes. Additionally, no change in the symptoms of arrhythmia or awareness of pacing was seen.

Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas

AbstractWe examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case‐specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Linking Personality Disorders and Clinical Syndromes on the MCMI-III

We examined the relationship between personality disorders (PDs) and clinical syndromes (CSs) as measured by the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III (MCMI-III; Millon, 1997) in a large, heterogeneous sample of psychiatric patients (N = 2,366) who completed the instrument as part of routine assessment following presentation for treatment. Using separate sets of base rate (BR) and nonoverlapping scale scores, we factor analyzed the PD and CS scales together and then separately. We correlated results from the latter analyses to determine how trait dimensions were associated with syndrome dimensions. We also studied co-occurrence at the scale level by examining CS score profiles of patients who were grouped according to their highest PD scale elevation ≥ BR75. Results for the two score sets were very similar and were consistent with previous research on the MCMI-III and its predecessors that identified 3 underlying dimensions loading both PD and CS scales. Three fourths (76.2%) of the sample had a highest PD scale ≥ BR75, and among these, 90% had at least 1 CS scale ≥ BR75, whereas 62.4% had 3 or more CS scales above this elevation. Findings underscore the substantial overlap between PDs and CSs along 3 dimensions that resemble Horney's (1945) tripartite interpersonal distinction of moving toward, away, and against, as well as Eysenck's (1994) higher order factors of neuroticism, extraversion, and psychoticism.

The MCMI-III in Child Custody Evaluations

This study provides normative data on the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III (MCMI-III) among 259 child custody examinees who were obtained from private practice settings in four different states. The mean MCMI-III profile in this sample was an elevation on Scale Y (Desirability), with subclinical elevations on Scales 4 (Histrionic), 5 (Narcissistic), and 7 (Compulsive). Females scored significantly higher than males on Scales 4,5, and 7. Moreover, mean Base Rate (BR) scores were very low for most scales. With the exception of Scales 4 and 7 for females, the frequency of clinically significant elevations (i.e., BR > 75) on MCMI-III scales was very low among child custody litigants. Results from this study provide empirical support for the position that the MCMI-III does not overpathologize child custody examinees. Some interpretive guidelines are offered to reduce the likelihood of false positive diagnoses on those few scales where such errors may arise. This study provides support for continued use of the MCMI-III in child custody evaluations.

Neuropsychological Outcome, Post Concussion Symptoms, and Forensic Considerations in Mild Closed Head Trauma.

Controversy regarding the long-term outcome of mild head trauma (MHT) is discussed. Variable results are related to potential methodological problems such as failure to consider issues of sensitivity, specificity, base-rates of symptoms in non-injured populations, and failure to match control to MHT subjects on demographic and motivational factors. Meta-analytic data from well-conducted studies show good long-term neuropsychological recovery for most persons who have sustained MHT. Symptom base-rate data show poor specificity for several so-called "post-concussion" symptoms, which occur frequently in non-brain damaged populations. Persistence of "post-concussive" complaints is considered as a function of somatization, which is potentially amenable to effective cognitive behavioral treatment. Forensic aspects of MHT are discussed, with particular reference to appropriate methods of clinical and scientific inference, and evaluation for malingering.

The effects of the modifier and correction indices on MCMI-II profiles.

Five modifier and correction indices are used in the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-II (MCMI-II; Millon, 1987) to improve the sensitivity and specificity of its scales; however, profile analyses indicated that they had little effect on the profiles of 141 psychiatric inpatients. The profiles generated within each MCMI-II section with and without the indices had the same shape and generally showed no significant differences on the various scales. A simple procedure applied to the initial, uncorrected scores provided a good estimate of the final base rate (BR) scores that are obtained when the correction and modifier indices are applied. Examination of individual profiles indicated that the 3-point codetypes were usually the same regardless of whether or not the correction indices were applied. When there were changes, these usually involved changes in rank order; new scales were rarely introduced in a code type. Although the utility of the indices for assessing test-taking attitude remains to be determined, these results argue against their use for modifying BR scores.

Personality Disorder and Clinical Syndrome Factors of MCMI-II Scales

DSM-III-R Axis II personality disorders and Axis I clinical syndromes as measured by MCMI—II scales were studied for factor structure. Subjects were 253 male inpatients and outpatients. Base rate (BR) scale scores and weighted raw scale scores corrected for number of items endorsed True by regression provided the basic variables. Principal components analyses with direct oblimin rotations were carried out separately on the 13 personality disorder scales and the nine clinical syndrome scales. BR scores yielded four personality disorder and four syndrome factors, while residual scores yielded a more meaningful set of three bipolar factors for both the personality disorder and syndrome scales. Correlations between personality disorder and clinical syndrome factor scores showed that anxiety, depression, and substance abuse were linked to traits of emotionality, while disordered thinking was strongly associated with social introversion. Findings were generally supportive of Millon's premise that personality di...