Bantry Bay Research Articles

Kelp detritus: Unutilized productivity or an unacknowledged trophic resource?

Kelp beds are one of the most productive marine systems and, while little of this production is directly consumed, there is growing evidence that kelp detritus is an essential food source for many detrital and suspension feeders, and forms an important component of offshore sedimentary carbon pools. However, the extent of the contribution of kelp detritus to the nutrition of coastal fauna is not well resolved. In this study, we compare the contribution of phytoplankton, kelp detritus, and waste from fish cages to the diet of a sentinel suspension feeder, the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) using stable isotopes. We found a significant depletion in both 13C and 15N in kelp tissue with age (distance from stipe to the deteriorating distal end of the kelp frond) which may have biased dietary estimates in previous studies which have applied isotopic source values derived from fresh kelp. Our mixing models indicate that macroalgal detritus formed 59% of the diet of the mussels in Berehaven, Bantry Bay, Ireland. We support the isotopic mixing model results by modelling the relative production of phytoplankton, kelp, and salmon farm waste, and found the supply of C and N from kelp and phytoplankton far exceeded the requirements of the mussels with much less coming from the nearby fish cages. Monthly chlorophyll measurements indicated there was only sufficient phytoplankton density to support mussel growth during the spring and autumn, explaining our observation of patterns in the relative importance of utilization of kelp detritus. Where there is pressure to harvest kelp beds, this study highlights the supporting ecosystem service they provide as an important dietary source in coastal food webs and emphasises the need for appropriate management measures for this resource.

Bayesian Networks modeling of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning in Mytilus edulis harvested in Bantry Bay, Ireland

Diarrhetic Shellfish Poisoning (DSP) results from the human consumption of contaminated shellfish with marine biotoxins, which are produced by some species of marine dinoflagellates, mainly belonging to the genus Dinophysis. Shellfish contamination with marine biotoxins not only pose a threat to human health, but also lead to financial loss to aquaculture operations from the temporary closure of production areas when toxin concentrations exceed regulatory levels. In this study, we developed a Bayesian Network (BN) model for forecasting the short-term variations of DSP toxins in blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) from Bantry Bay, Southwest Ireland. Data inputs to a BN model from 10 production sites in Bantry Bay included plankton cell densities in sea water, DSP toxin concentration in mussels and sea surface temperature. The model was trained with data from 2014 to 2018, and validated with data of 2019. Validation consisted of predicting the DSP toxin concentration at one production site using the model parameters from the other locations as input values. Model validation showed that the prediction accuracy was higher than 86%. Sensitivity analysis indicated that in general, DSP toxin concentration was more relevant than plankton abundance. This initial work has demonstrated the usefulness of BN modeling as an approach to short term forecasting. Further work is ongoing to use the model for scenario testing and to increase the number of environmental parameters used as inputs to the model.

Co-localisation of Azaspiracid Analogs with the Dinoflagellate Species Azadinium spinosum and Amphidoma languida in the Southwest of Ireland.

Phytoplankton and biotoxin monitoring programmes have been implemented in many countries to protect human health and to mitigate the impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) on the aquaculture industry. Several amphidomatacean species have been confirmed in Irish coastal waters, including the azaspiracid-producing species Azadinium spinosum and Amphidoma languida. Biogeographic distribution studies have been hampered by the fact that these small, armoured dinoflagellates share remarkably similar morphologies when observed by light microscopy. The recent releases of species-specific molecular detection assays have, in this context, been welcome developments. A survey of the south west and west coasts of Ireland was carried out in August 2017 to investigate the late summer distribution of toxic amphidomataceans and azaspiracid toxins. Azadinium spinosum and Am. languida were detected in 83% of samples in the southwest along the Crease Line and Bantry Bay transects between 20 and 70m depth, with maximal cell concentrations of 7000 and 470,000 cells/L, respectively. Azaspiracid concentrations were well aligned with the distributions of Az. spinosum and Am. languida, up to 1.1ng/L and 4.9ng/L for combined AZA-1, -2, -33, and combined AZA-38, -39, respectively. Although a snapshot in time, this survey provides new insights in the late summer prominence of AZAs and AZA-producing species in the southwest of Ireland, where major shellfish aquaculture operations are located. Results showed a substantial overlap in the distribution of amphidomatacean species in the area and provide valuable baseline information in the context of ongoing monitoring efforts of toxigenic amphidomataceans in the region.

Deep Maps: West Cork Coastal Cultures

Deep Maps: West Cork Coastal Cultures Claire Connolly (bio), Rachel Murphy (bio), Breda Moriarty (bio), Orla-Peach Power (bio), Michael Waldron (bio), and Rob McAllen (bio) Environmental history faces particular challenges in the context of a national story that has most often been told in terms of “a battle for the land” behind which lay a yet more evocative “battle for the soil.”1 Recently, we have seen efforts to disrupt the dominance of land-based national histories from the twentieth century with a new attention to oceans and coasts.2 But how do we join political to natural history, and what role can be played by current inhabitants of Ireland’s coastlines? This report outlines some of the ways in which cultural history can speak meaningfully to environmental debates on the future use of the oceans by offering a case study that combines humanities and STEM methods in an exploration of the contested coastline of west Cork. The cultural heritage of our coastlines is rich but elusive: a record of human encounters with land and sea that is deeply felt and experienced yet often described as elusive and intangible. Inherently intricate, fluid, and changeable, coasts are often understood in disjointed ways and addressed differently by science and humanities researchers. As Michael Chiarappa and Matthew McKenzie suggest in the journal Environmental History, the success of such conversations depends on our ability “to engage in a level of ‘shared authority’ [End Page 180] across disciplinary boundaries” and on a further dialogue—an “often delicate and evolving relationship” with coastal communities themselves.3 The team behind the project Deep Maps: West Cork Coastal Cultures developed a methodology to bring to life the rich physical, cultural, and symbolic heritage of the west Cork coast. This interdisciplinary collaboration between STEM and humanities researchers was funded by the Irish Research Council between 2015 and 2019 with the aim of developing an approach that can be applied to other natural and historical environments.The project investigated the biological, cultural, and historical context of the southwest coast of Ireland from 1700 to 1920 and used the findings to prompt a fuller public understanding of current environmental priorities. By advancing an interdisciplinary understanding of this coastline, the project forms a link between cultural history, scientific research, and environmental priorities while communicating a sense of shared identity and fostering ownership of maritime heritage. In linking the research skills of literary and cultural history with those of marine biology, geoinformatics—defined by Ehrlers (2003) as “the art, science, or technology dealing with the acquisition, storage, processing, production, presentation, and dissemination of geoinformation”—and digital curation, the project joins up aspects of the maritime environment that are often disconnected in modern debates. Deep Maps responded to needs emerging from both humanities and the biological and environmental sciences. In the case of the former, the environmental humanities have posed urgent new questions about the scope and scale of human interactions with the environment as represented in literary and other texts; while in the case of marine biology, scientists are increasingly aware of the need to deepen and enrich their apprehension of marine environments via a more nuanced sense of the histories and cultures of these storied places. [End Page 181] West Cork Coastal Cultures Our focus was on the rich maritime environment that is found along the arc of Cork’s Roaring Water Bay, from Clonakilty to Bantry Bay, as it is shaped by sea and land and as it is imagined within eighteenth- and nineteenth-century poems and drawings. The project chronology begins with antiquarian inquiries and poetic responses to the Cork coast and ends with the start of serious biological field research in this area, when Louis Renouf from University College Cork began visiting Lough Hyne near Skibbereen in the 1920s. While undertaking research for the Ordnance Survey in 1842, John O’Donovan described Cork as being “particularly Irish especially in the mountains and along the coasts.”4 Elsewhere in the Ordnance Survey correspondence, however, we find a note about “the first monument erected to the memory of Nelson after the Battle of Trafalgar” at Castletownsend, a reminder that this was a coastline closely involved...

Local drivers of the seasonal carbonate cycle across four contrasting coastal systems

Four contrasting coastal systems in Ireland, each with shellfish production activities, were studied to provide a first evaluation of the spatial and seasonal influences on the local carbonate system. The study sites included; (1) a coastal system with sandstone bedrock and minimal freshwater sources, (2) an estuarine system with a catchment limestone bedrock, (3) an estuarine system with a catchment granite bedrock, and (4) a karst groundwater-fed estuary. The type of bedrock was the dominant control on regional carbonate chemistry, where the calcium carbonate catchment bedrock was a strong source of both dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity input in the two limestone regions, which are supersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO2 throughout the year. Primary production played an important role in the non-limestone regions, where both systems were CO2-undersaturated during productive months. Minimum aragonite saturation (Ωaragonite) was observed at all sites during winter when productivity is lowest; surface winter Ωaragonite is <1.5 close to the mussel farms in Kinvara Bay and Bantry Bay. Ωaragonite was recalculated to account for the higher calcium concentrations in the River Suir from limestone dissolution, which increases Ωaragonite by ∼0.5 in the mid estuary and >2 in the inner estuary. The substrate-to-inhibitor ratio (SIR), an alternative indicator of ecosystem vulnerability to acidification, was positively correlated to Ωaragonite in all systems, however with more variability in the two limestone regions. Results highlight challenges of assessing local ecosystem vulnerability to future acidification and the importance of understanding the local spatio-temporal biogeochemistry.

Geophysical and geochemical analysis of shallow gas and an associated pockmark field in Bantry Bay, Co. Cork, Ireland

An integrated geophysical, geological, and geochemical investigation of seabed fluid venting was carried out in upper Bantry Bay, a large marine inlet on the southwest coast of Ireland. The results provide evidence of the seafloor venting of gas rich fluids, resulting in the formation of a pockmark field identified here for the first time. The pockmarks occur in an area where sub-bottom profiles provide evidence of chimney-like features interpreted to record upward gas migration through Quaternary sediments to the seafloor. Three vibrocores up to 6 m long were acquired in water depths of 24–34 m, two from the pockmark field and one from outside. Methane of predominantly biogenic origin was quantified in all three cores by headspace analysis of sediment sub-samples. Well-defined sulfate methane transition zones (SMTZs) were observed in two of the cores, the shallowest (1.25 m below sea floor (mbsf)) inside the pockmark field and the other (3.75 mbsf) outside. It is likely that an SMTZ occurs at the location of the third core, also within the pockmark field, although deeper than the samples obtained during this study. Gas migration towards the seafloor is suggested to involve both diffuse pore fluid migration across wide areas and focused flow through the pockmarks, together driven by methanogenesis of pre-glacial lacustrine sediments preserved in a bedrock basin, and possible gas release from the Owenberg River Fault. Analysis of phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) and archaeal isoprenoid hydrocarbons was used to investigate the microbial ecology of these sediments. Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) may play a role in controlling release of CH4 to the water column and atmosphere in this shallow gas setting, potentially mediated by syntrophic sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) and anaerobic methanotrophic archaea (ANME).

The Bantry bay crude oil terminal

The Bantry bay crude oil terminal

Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part II: Are operational oceanographic models useful in a HAB warning system

This study investigated the application of a three-dimensional physical hydrodynamic model in a harmful algal bloom forecast system for Bantry Bay, southwest Ireland. Modelled oceanographic conditions were studied and used to help understand observed changes in the chemical and biological patterns from the national biotoxins and phytoplankton monitoring program. The study focused on two toxic events in 2013. An upwelling event was predicted by the model prior to the appearance and population increase of potentially toxic diatoms, Pseudo-nitzschia, and associated domoic acid in shellfish. A downwelling episode was provided as a forecast in the model prior to the arrival of a Dinophysis bloom and detection of its associated biotoxins in Bay shellfish. The modelled forecast products developed included expected surface, mid-depth and bottom current pathways at the mouth of the Bay and on the adjacent shelf. The rate and direction of water volume flow at the mouth and mid-bay sections were produced by the model to examine predicted upwelling and downwelling pulses. The model also calculated the evolution of water properties (temperature, salinity and density) with depth along the Bay axis and on the adjacent continental shelf. Direct measurements of water properties at a fixed point, mid-bay, were comparable to model calculations. The operational model for southwest Ireland produces a reliable 3-day physical hydrodynamic forecast of the dominant regional physical processes that result in water exchange events between Bantry Bay and its adjacent shelf. While simulated physical hydrodynamics were provided as a 3-day forecast, the upwelling and downwelling signals from the model, closely linked to toxic HAB episodes, were evident up to 10 days prior to the contamination of shellfish in the Bay.

Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part I: Description and validation of an operational forecasting model

A 3D primitive equation coastal ocean model for southwest Ireland, called the Bantry Bay model, was developed and implemented operationally. Validated model outputs have multiple uses. One of the incentives to develop the model was to explore the possible transport pathways that carry harmful algae blooms (HAB) into Bantry Bay. The model is nested offline in a regional North East Atlantic operational model. Surface forcing is taken from the half-degree Global Forecasting System, available at three-hourly intervals. Heat fluxes are calculated from the bulk formulae. Surface freshwater fluxes are obtained from the prescribed rainfall rates and the evaporation rates calculated by the model. Freshwater discharges from five rivers are included in the model. Model validation and the model skill in representing the water level, currents, temperature and salinity in the bay are reported. A scoring system based on the average adjusted relative mean absolute error for the predicted currents was used. An upgrade to a higher score was achieved through the incorporation of local winds into the surface forcing and by varying the bottom roughness coefficient. The model, designed to work in forecast mode, can replicate the main oceanographic features in the region. The model forecast is used in a decision support system for HAB alerts. An operational HAB alert system did not exist in Ireland prior to the use of this model.

Diversity and occurrence of siphonophores in Irish coastal waters

Siphonophores are at times amongst the most abundant invertebrate zooplankton predators in the oceans. Historically, siphonophores have been under-sampled and of the studies conducted there has been a bias towards oceanic oligotrophic waters where they are considered to be more important. In temperate coastal regions, comparatively less is known about the diversity and abundance of siphonophores, where periodic blooms can restructure the plankton communities and have been correlated with high mortalities in the salmon aquaculture industry. To address this lack of knowledge, plankton samples were collected during two periods (March 2009-March 2011 and April 2014-November 2015) from a coastal embayment in the southwest of Ireland. In total, three siphonophore species were found, the calycophoran Muggiaea atlantica, and the physonects, Nanomia bijuga and Agalma elegans. Muggiaea atlantica was the most abundant species (250 colonies m−3), with densities an order of magnitude higher than either physonect. Muggiaea atlantica displayed a distinct seasonality, whereas the physonect species were sporadic in occurrence. Comparing siphonophores in Bantry Bay and the Western English Channel (Plymouth Marine Laboratory's L4 station) indicates both regions share a similar pattern of inter-annual occurrence and provides novel information on the seasonality and occurrence of siphonophores in Irish coastal waters.

Late Quaternary evolution and sea-level history of a glaciated marine embayment, Bantry Bay, SW Ireland

Ireland experienced a spatially complex pattern of relative sea-level (RSL) changes and shoreline development caused by the interplay of isostatic and eustatic (ice equivalent sea level) processes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Using a combination of high-resolution marine geophysical data, vibrocores, foraminiferal analysis and 10 AMS radiocarbon dates, we reconstruct the Late Quaternary evolution and RSL history of Bantry Bay, a large (40km long, 5–10km wide) embayment in SW Ireland.The data indicate two infill phases: one before and one after the LGM, separated by glacial and lowstand sediments. The pre-LGM history is not dated and the depositional history is inferred. A large sediment lobe formed at the outer edge of Bantry Bay as a lowstand ice-proximal glacimarine outwash system as the ice retreated after the LGM, at a sea level ca. 80m lower than present. Iceberg scour immediately west of this location likely relate to the break-up of the local Kerry–Cork Ice Cap. Long curvilinear ridges, seen both offshore and on top of the sediment lobe, probably formed as shoreface ridges under stronger-than-present tidal currents during a period of RSL stability (pre-14.6kacal BP). A subsequent infill phase is characterised by a basin-wide erosional (ravinement) surface and the deposition of inter- and sub-tidal estuarine sediments. Although our data support the general trends, our stratigraphic and radiocarbon data suggest a higher sea level between 11 and 13.5kacal BP than predicted by existing glacial isostatic adjustment models.

PAPER MONEY, THE NATION, AND THE SUSPENSION OF CASH PAYMENTS IN 1797

AbstractThis article considers British society's response to the suspension of cash payments in February 1797. Although this event marked the beginning of the so-called Bank Restriction Period, during which the Bank of England's notes were inconvertible, there have been no detailed studies on the social and political situation surrounding the suspension. This article provides an in-depth examination of the events leading up to and immediately following the suspension. It questions existing accounts of the suspension as a smooth transition into the nationwide use of paper money and describes the complex process that came into play to avert a nationwide financial collapse. The decision to suspend the Bank's cash payments stemmed from deep-rooted financial instability, exacerbated by recurrent invasion scares that heightened after the French attempt on Bantry Bay, Ireland, in December 1796. Under such circumstances, national support for drastic financial measures could not be taken for granted. The article demonstrates that the declaration movement, which was a form of consolidated and visualized trust in the financial system, played a crucial role in the 1797 suspension crisis.

Numerical modelling of blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) bacterial contamination

Bivalve shellfish such as oysters and mussels can concentrate human pathogens when grown in areas impacted by municipal wastewater. Under EU regulation this risk to consumers is controlled by determining the sanitary quality of bivalve shellfish production areas based on the concentration of Escherichia coli present in shellfish flesh. The authors present a modelling approach to simulate an uptake of E. coli from seawater and subsequent depuration by Mytilus edulis. The model that dynamically predicts E. coli concentration in the mussel tissue is embedded within a 3-D numerical modelling system comprising hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, shellfish ecophysiological and the newly proposed microbial modules. The microbial module has two state variables, namely, the concentrations of E. coli in water and in the mussel tissue. Novel formulations to calculate the filtration rates by mussels and the resulting uptake of bacteria are proposed; these rates are updated at every computational time step. Concentrations of E. coli in seawater are also updated accordingly taking into account the amounts ingested by mussels. The model has been applied to Bantry Bay in the south-west of Ireland. The results indicate that the model is capable of reproducing the official classification of shellfish waters in the bay based on monthly sampling at several stations. The predicted filtration rates and ratios of E. coli in water and mussels also compare well with the literature. The model thus forms a tool that may be used to assist in the classification of shellfish waters at much greater spatial and temporal detail than that offered by a field monitoring programme. Moreover, it can also aid in designing an efficient monitoring programme. The model can also be utilised to determine the contribution of individual point sources of pollution on the microbial loading in mussels and, when incorporated into an operational framework, it can provide a short-term forecasting of microbial contamination in a shellfishery. Also, the model can be easily extended to include other shellfish and pathogen species.

Exploring the eclectic world of Richard White (1800-1868), 2nd Earl of Bantry, Lord Berehaven: collector | grand tourist | nobleman

This is how Nigel Everett describes Bantry House in his Irish Arts Review article of 2010. Overlooking Bantry Bay in West Cork the house enjoys one of the most favourable aspects of any of Ireland’s Big Houses (Figure 1). Everett’s words are a most apt description for the project of ennoblement envisioned by Richard White (1800-1868), 2nd Earl of Bantry, Lord Berehaven, and for the collection of art he amassed. As Berehaven travelled extensively he was often absent from Bantry. He visited the usual sites of the nineteenth century Grand Tour, also visiting Spain, Russia, the Baltics and Scandinavia. There were two activities he invariably participated in while travelling: sketching and collecting. The latter activity led to the creation of one of the most eclectic collections of art to grace an Irish home. Berehaven and his vision for Bantry House have not received sustained enquiry, which is a gap in ...

Protein thiols as novel biomarkers in ecotoxicology: A case study of oxidative stress in Mytilus edulis sampled near a former industrial site in Cork Harbour, Ireland

Oxidative stress produces reactive oxygen species which can modify proteins and thiols of cysteines are especially susceptible. Mytilus edulis was sampled from three stations in Cork Harbour, Ireland and from an out-harbour control site in Bantry Bay, Ireland. A variety of traditional biomarkers were benchmarked against thiol oxidation. Lysosomal membrane stability diminished in haemocytes from the three Cork harbour sites, although a stronger effect was observed in two in-harbour stations of environmental concern (Douglas and Haulbowline Island). Catalase and glutathione transferase (GST) activities were decreased in digestive gland extracts of animals from in-harbour sites especially the in-harbour control (Ringaskiddy) showed lower GST than Bantry. Mussels collected at Haulbowline Island showed elevated lipid peroxidation (p

New azaspiracids in Amphidomataceae (Dinophyceae)

Azaspiracids (AZAs) are a group of lipophilic polyether toxins implicated in incidents of shellfish poisoning in humans, particularly in northern Europe, which are produced by the small marine dinoflagellate Azadinium spinosum. Other related species/strains of the Amphidomataceae have not been proven to date to contain any of the known azaspiracids. Closer analyses of these species/strains by triple quadrupole mass spectrometry in the precursor and product ion mode now revealed four new compounds with high similarity to azaspiracids, all of them with a characteristic m/z 348 fragment but with absence of the m/z 362 fragment. These compounds were detected in three species/strains, i.e. in North Sea isolates of Azadinium poporum (molecular mass: 845.5 Da), in a Korean isolate which has been designated as A. cf. poporum (molecular mass: 857.5 Da) and in Amphidoma languida isolated from Bantry Bay, Ireland (molecular masses: 815.5 and 829.5 Da). Cell quotas of roughly 2–20 fg per cell were in the same range as found for AZA-1/-2 in A. spinosum. Structures for all compounds were proposed by interpretation of fragmentation patterns and high resolution mass measurements using Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance-mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS).

15th NOFSA Congress 2012

In 1990, the Society of Endocrinology Metabolism and Diabetes of South Africa (SEMDSA) and a diverse group of individuals interested in metabolic bone diseases in adults and children, held a combined congress in the Wilderness, a seaside village on the east coast of the Western Cape. The “boneheads” subsequently went on to establish the National Osteoporosis Foundation of South Africa (NOFSA) in 1993. This year, the Western Cape will again host a combined meeting. From 19-22 April, the 15th NOFSA and 47th SEMDSA Congress will be held at the President Hotel in Bantry Bay, Cape Town.

Low Cost Navigation for Unmanned Underwater Vehicles Using Line of Soundings

This paper focuses on localization and navigation as a critical skill for mobile robotics in general and underwater vehicles in particular. The main objective is to explore the possibility of the incorporation of historical navigation techniques into Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) localization and navigation algorithms, using low cost sensors and good quality bathymetry. The Line of Soundings (LOS) localization approach, used extensively by mariners in the past, includes several sources of errors. This paper explores these errors and their effects on localization precision in specific application areas. Selected preliminary results from field trials with ROV LATIS in Cork Harbour and Bantry Bay are presented in this paper.

Amphidoma languida sp. nov. (Dinophyceae) Reveals a Close Relationship between Amphidoma and Azadinium

Toxic algae such as Alexandrium and Azadinium have an important ecological impact and have originated several times independently within the dinophytes. Their closest relatives, however, are mostly unknown at present. A new dinophyte species, Amphidoma languida sp. nov., was isolated from Bantry Bay (Ireland) during a period of elevated azaspiracid toxicity in mussels. The new species was described in detail, and its phylogenetic position was analysed, by using a combination of light and electron microscopy, chemical detection methods, and sequence comparison of concatenated ribosomal RNA sequence data. Morphological similarities, such as cingular and hypothecal plates, the number and arrangement of sulcal plates, and the characteristic apical pore complex with a small X-plate centrally invading the first apical plate, indicated a close relationship between Amphidoma and Azadinium. However, no known azaspiracid analogues were detected in A. languida by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass-spectrometry. In a molecular phylogeny, the Amphidomataceae including Amphidoma and Azadinium were an independent lineage among other monophyletic major groups of the dinophytes such as the Suessiales, Prorocentrales, Gonyaulacales, and Peridiniales. Thus, the taxonomic affiliation of Azadinium is clarified, and our data may prove helpful in the development of specific and reliable molecular detection methods of toxic Azadinium.

A simple short range model for the prediction of harmful algal events in the bays of southwestern Ireland

A simple model is described which predicts harmful algal events in the bays of southwestern Ireland. Fundamental to the model is the physical forcing of circulation in these bays in summer. The predominant hydrographic feature at this time is a wind-driven two-layer oscillatory flow acting in a thermally stratified water column. This mechanism exchanges substantial proportions of the bays' volumes, and harmful algal events arise with the associated transport of harmful populations into them. The model is therefore based on the criterion that wind-driven water exchanges result in exchanges of phytoplankton, which, if the time of year is correct, result in toxic events. Utilising Bantry Bay as an example, hindcasting showed that the model has a high degree of success using a wind index based on the sequence of winds that results in water exchange. The model was implemented by estimating indices from the five-day weather forecast, and trialled in 2005. Results were published on the web in real time, during which a predicted water exchange event in mid-June was accompanied by an influx of Dinophysis acuminata into Bantry Bay with an associated contamination of shellfish with Diarrheic Shellfish Poisoning toxins.