Bank Fundamentals Research Articles

Herd behavior in U.S. bank stocks

This study investigates investor herd biases in U.S. banks' stock returns before, after, and during the COVID-19 pandemic by focusing on the differential impacts of monetary policy cycles and bank regulatory framework. Our results display fundamental herding for both large stress-tested banks and non-stress-tested regional banks during the pre-pandemic tightening monetary policy period in which bank fundamentals were improved through regulatory changes after the global financial crisis. However, we find evidence of nonfundamental herding during the post-pandemic tightening monetary policy period in which bank fundamentals were weakened. This situation might have contributed to the value irrelevance of bank fundamental information to stock prices. Our results have important implications for regulators, policymakers, and investors.

Revisiting the estimation of the cost of equity of euro area banks

The aim of this article is to estimate the cost of equity for a large sample of euro area banks. To this end, the authors consider several estimation methodologies falling under two main approaches: (i) multi-factor time-series models of stock market returns; and (ii) dividend discount models. It is found that, at country level, the estimates of the various models display a similar time variation, but differences in levels can be substantial. The relationship between the different cost of equity estimates and bank observables is relatively weak. Estimates from dividend discount models show a somewhat more robust relationship with bank fundamentals, while those from factor models do so more clearly only for larger banks. A combined measure built as a simple average across models also shows a moderate association with fundamentals. Overall, the results highlight the uncertainties inherent in cost of equity estimation and the importance of considering different alternative models.

Market Concentration, Bank Characteristics, Macroeconomic Conditions, and Indonesian Islamic Bank Financing

As the latest player in the banking market in Indonesia, Islamic banks are not as experienced as their counterpart conventional banks. In addition, the types of Islamic bank financing (loans) are different from conventional bank loans. Our work investigates the determinants of Islamic bank financing in Indonesia. Our concern variables are market concentration, bank fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions, including Covid-19. This study examines all Islamic banks in Indonesia from 2015 to 2020 using quarterly data. Our data set is 724 observations with unbalanced panel data. We employ the dynamic panel data using the two-step system GMM that is more robust than two-step difference GMM. Market concentration encourages financing. Profitability, bank size, and financing loss provision also enhance financing. However, a high degree of risk aversion and inefficiency reduces financing. Furthermore, Islamic bank financing also depends on macroeconomic conditions. Economic upturns strengthen financing. Strong bank fundamentals, particularly bank size, are the key to success for Islamic bank financing. The results draw an important practical implication. Large Islamic bank is a necessary condition to compete with a conventional bank. Accordingly, the spin off policy of Islamic bank windows to full-fledged Islamic bank should be implemented immediately.

Bank stability, Covid-19, and Islamic bank financing in Indonesia

The financial performance of Islamic banks is strongly influenced by the bank's ability to disburse their funds. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of Islamic bank fundamentals in influencing financing. Islamic bank fundamentals consist of stability, size, profitability, equity, efficiency, and financing risk. This study uses quarterly data to examine 13 Islamic commercial banks from 2014 to 2020. The method used is static panel data regression with unbalanced panel data of 334 observations. The results show that the Z-score, assets, ROA, and NPF have a positive effect on the financing of Islamic commercial banks. Meanwhile, the CAR and income cost ratio has a negative effect on the financing of Islamic commercial banks. Furthermore, the economic slowdown because of Covid-19 has reduced Islamic commercial bank financing. These findings indicate that profit, bank size, and stability are the main Islamic bank fundamentals that significantly influence the amount of Islamic bank financing.

Reviewing the Impact of Liquidity on Real Estate: An International Comparative Study

After battling significant losses due to the global financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic, the UAE real estate market has seen new highs in 2021 and 2022. The uptrend of this sector is likely to continue into the next few years, with the money of foreign investors pouring in and the persistent increase in oil prices. Innovative policies and initiatives have made the UAE a haven for investors while Europe and some other countries deal with a liquidity crunch. As per our observations, property purchase in the UAE seems to be a very sound long-term investment, which is probably one of the safest in the uncertain world we are living in today. This paper aims to study how liquidity affects the performance of the real estate market in the UAE and other countries. The findings reveal that the UAE is an ideal real estate investment destination in times when many countries are facing tightening financial conditions, with some on the brink of deep economic crisis. UAE Government policies like the Golden Visa Scheme and zero property taxation welcome more expats to invest in UAE properties and settle in the country. Foreigners are attracted by the country’s sound capital markets, excellent infrastructure, economic stability, and perceived absence of systemic corruption. The credit fundamentals of UAE banks are strong for the coming years, with high oil prices supporting liquidity. The findings also suggest that Dubai real estate will continue to thrive despite the fear of global recession. However, investors should be prepared for a possible increase in property prices and annual rents in the coming years as the UAE real estate market continues its upward trajectory in line with the rising oil prices and foreign direct investments.

Bank instability: Interbank linkages and the role of disclosure

We study the impact of disclosure about bank fundamentals on depositors’ behavior in the presence (and absence) of economic linkages between financial institutions. Using a controlled laboratory environment, we identify under which conditions disclosure is conducive to bank stability. We find that bank deposits are sensitive to perceived bank performance. While banks with strong fundamentals benefit from more precise disclosure, an opposite effect is present for solvent banks with weaker fundamentals. Depositors take information about economic linkages into account and correctly identify when disclosure about one institution conveys meaningful information for others. Our findings suggest potential costs of bank transparency and that disclosure may not always be stability-enhancing.

Weathering Cash Flow Shocks

Unexpectedly severe winter weather, which is arguably exogenous to firm and bank fundamentals, represents a significant cash flow shock for bank-borrowing firms. Firms respond to these shocks by drawing on and increasing the size of their credit lines. Banks charge borrowers for this liquidity via increased interest rates and less borrower-friendly loan provisions. Credit line adjustments occur within one calendar quarter of the shock and persist for at least nine months. Overall, we provide evidence that bank credit lines are an important tool for managing the non-fundamental component of cash flow volatility, especially for solvent small bank borrowers.

Weathering Cash Flow Shocks

ABSTRACTUnexpectedly severe winter weather, which is arguably exogenous to firm and bank fundamentals, represents a significant cash flow shock for bank‐borrowing firms. Firms respond to these shocks by drawing on and increasing the size of their credit lines. Banks charge borrowers for this liquidity via increased interest rates and less borrower‐friendly loan provisions. Credit line adjustments occur within one calendar quarter of the shock and persist for at least nine months. Overall, we provide evidence that bank credit lines are an important tool for managing the nonfundamental component of cash flow volatility, especially for solvent, small bank borrowers.

Measuring the Cost of Equity of Euro Area Banks

The cost of equity for banks equates to the compensation that market participants demand for investing in and holding banks’ equity, and has important implications for the transmission of monetary policy and for financial stability. Notwithstanding its importance, the cost of equity is unobservable and therefore needs to be estimated. This occasional paper provides estimates of the cost of equity for listed and unlisted euro area banks using a three-step methodology. In the first step, ten different models are estimated. In the second step, the models’ results are combined applying an equal-weighting procedure. In the third step, the combined costs of equity for individual banks are aggregated at the euro area level and according to banks’ business models. The results suggest that, since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-08, the premia that investors demand to compensate them for the risk they bear when financing banks’ equity has been persistently higher than the return on equity (ROE) generated by banks. We show that our estimates of cost of equity have plausible relationships to banks’ fundamentals. The cost of equity tends to be higher for banks that are riskier (higher non-performing loan ratios), less efficient (higher cost-to-income ratio), and with more unstable funding sources (higher relative reliance on interbank deposits). Finally, we use bank fundamentals to estimate the cost of equity for unlisted banks. In general, unlisted banks are found to have a somewhat lower cost of equity compared to listed banks, with business model characteristics accounting for part of the estimated difference.

Analyzing Impact of a Crisis on Bank Financial Ratios

In this study we provide a practical framework and methodology for analyzing the effects of banking shocks (economic or financial in nature) on bank fundamentals, that avoids the use of complicated econometrics methods. For this, we focus our attention to the effects of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis on the four largest US banks and examine the variation of trends in the select financial ratios for those institutions using quarterly regulatory data running from 2002-Q4 to 2020-Q2. We start by plotting time series charts of those financial ratios for each bank and compare the before-crisis, transition and after-crisis periods. For this, we simply fit trend lines with three parameters of shift, slope, and volatility to the banking data. The shift parameter describes the level change of the variable when before- and after-crisis periods are compared. The slope parameter pronounces the difference in steepness of the trend lines, while the volatility parameter is associated with all three periods and describe the variation in the data during each period. Our results indicate that capital ratios, an important regulatory financial ratio, are higher across the board in the after-crisis period compared to before-crisis period, suggesting a positive shift. We don’t see significant changes in slope parameter for the capital ratio series leading us to suggest the use of dummy variable regression model where slope is treated as a fixed constant. We further show that pre-crisis and transition periods are characterized by higher volatilities that ultimately subside in the after-crisis period. Lastly, we conclude by suggesting that financial practitioners use the shift, slope and volatility parameters in understanding trends in financial time series data since it is easy to implement and interpret the results compared to more sophisticated econometric models.

Analyzing Impact of a Crisis on Bank Financial Ratios

In this study we provide a practical framework and methodology for analyzing the effects of banking shocks (economic or financial in nature) on bank fundamentals, that avoids the use of complicated econometrics methods. For this, we focus our attention to the effects of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis on the four largest US banks and examine the variation of trends in the select financial ratios for those institutions using quarterly regulatory data running from 2002-Q4 to 2020-Q2. We start by plotting time series charts of those financial ratios for each bank and compare the before-crisis, transition and after-crisis periods. For this, we simply fit trend lines with three parameters of shift, slope, and volatility to the banking data. The shift parameter describes the level change of the variable when before- and after-crisis periods are compared. The slope parameter pronounces the difference in steepness of the trend lines, while the volatility parameter is associated with all three periods and describe the variation in the data during each period. Our results indicate that capital ratios, an important regulatory financial ratio, are higher across the board in the after-crisis period compared to before-crisis period, suggesting a positive shift. We don’t see significant changes in slope parameter for the capital ratio series leading us to suggest the use of dummy variable regression model where slope is treated as a fixed constant. We further show that pre-crisis and transition periods are characterized by higher volatilities that ultimately subside in the after-crisis period. Lastly, we conclude by suggesting that financial practitioners use the shift, slope and volatility parameters in understanding trends in financial time series data since it is easy to implement and interpret the results compared to more sophisticated econometric models.

Bank Concentration and Financial Risk in Jordan

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank concentration and bank risk in the Jordanian banking industry from 2005 to 2016. While controlling for bank fundamentals and business cycle, we used two measurements to measure bank risk (Z-score and Non-performing loan ratio) and three measurements of bank concentration (Herfindahl–Hirschmann Index, Concentration Ratio and the Lerner Index). We applied the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to analysis this relationship between concentration and risk. The empirical evidence shows bank concentration has a positive relationship with risk measured using non-performing loan ratio, and a negative relationship using Z-score. This suggests greater market power leads to greater risks, which in turn supports the concentration-fragility theory.

Determinants of banks’ dividend payment decisions: evidence from MENA countries

Purpose This paper aims to investigate bank-specific determinants affecting the dividend policy of commercial banks listed in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries. Design/methodology/approach The study uses pooled and panel tobit and logit regression analyses based on 16-year unbalanced data with 1,593 firm-year observations collecting from 117 commercial banks listed in 11 MENA countries. Findings The results indicated that the main bank-specific factors affecting dividend payment decisions are bank size, profitability, capital adequacy, credit risk and bank age in the context of the MENA emerging markets. In addition, the analysis showed that the yearly dummy for the global financial crisis (2008–2009) has a significant negative effect, while the yearly dummy for the Arabic spring crisis (2010–2011) has no significant effect on the dividend payment decision of banks listed in the MENA region. Furthermore, the growth opportunity is not one of the key factors affecting dividend policies by banks in MENA emerging markets. Considering this information, it is reasonable to conclude that MENA region banks’ dividend decisions follow investment decisions. In other words, the dividend decisions and investment decisions are independent of each other. The findings support theories (hypotheses) of dividends such as residual, signalling, regulatory pressures, transaction cost and lifecycle. Research limitations/implications This study is restricted to a sample of one type of financial firm, conventional commercial banks listed in the MENA markets because of the problem of missing data and limited information on other financial firms for the same period, particularly Islamic banks. Moreover, the focus of this study was on factors that are considered bank fundamentals. However, ownership variables were not included in the study because of unavailability. Practical implications The results of this study have several important implications for banks’ dividend policymakers, regulators, analysts and investors. Dividend policymakers in MENA emerging markets seem to use residual dividend policy, in which they distribute dividends according to what is left over after all acceptable investment opportunities have been undertaken. These inconsistent, unstable dividend policy trends make it difficult for investors to predict future dividend decisions. Further, this practise may convey information to shareholders about a lack of positive future investment opportunities. This may negatively affect the share value of banks. Acquiring a broad understanding of the dividend behaviour of MENA banks enables regulators to take more effective regulatory actions to protect shareholders and depositors. Finally, the results of this study can help analysts and investors build their dividends predictions and investment strategies. Originality/value The banking sector plays a disproportionately large role in the development of emerging economies. Therefore, this study is one of the first to examine a large cross-country sample of MENA banks (117) for an extensive period (2000–2015). The study includes both the Global financial crisis and Arab uprising periods, including after the liberalization and recent economic reforms and structural changes in financial sectors across MENA countries.

PROSPEK SAHAM PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA

The focus of this research is to determine stocks provide the highest profit (gain opportunity) for investors. Investors will compare opportunities in choosing investment in the banking sector by comparing the combination of long-term growth rates rather than bank fundamentals with stock valuations. The population in this study is banking stocks included in the LQ45 index. The method of data collection uses a sample survey with a purposive sampling technique with the criteria of banking stocks with the largest market capitalization and has a high level of liquidity in trading values, and has consistently been included in the LQ45 index for the last 10 years (2008 to 2017). The number of samples selected were 4 banks consisting of Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Bank BRI (BBRI), Bank BCA (BBCA), and Bank BNI (BBNI). Data collection techniques through documentation, as well as quantitative data sourced from secondary data. Data analysis techniques by comparing the growth of fundamental performance such as Return On Assets (ROA), Return On Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity (DER), Capital Addequacy Ratio (CAR), and Non Performing Loans (NPL). Whereas market performance through Share Price, Earning Per Share (EPS), Price Earning Ratio (PER), Price to Earning Growth (PEG), and Dividend Yield by using compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). Then compare the value of the Margin Of Safety (MOS) Average in stock valuation analysis. The results of this study indicate that the financial performance of Bank BCA (BBCA) is superior to other banks according to DER, CAR and NPL. BRI is the best bank in generating profitability (ROA and ROE) compared to 3 other banks. Meanwhile, according to the stock market performance based on the order of the greatest opportunity level, Bank BNI has the best prospects because it has the largest EPS growth, the lowest stock price valuation, and sufficient MOS value, then ranked below it respectively are Bank Mandiri, Bank BRI, and Bank BCA .Keywords:Financial performance, market performance, and stock value

Aggregate and Bank-specific Information Disclosure in Bank Stress Tests

This paper studies how a bank regulator’s aggregate and bank-specific information dis-closure policy affects social welfare. We apply global games to studying an economy where depositors, with strategic complementarities among them, face uncertainties about both aggregate and bank-specific information of a bank. Then we examine how disclosure policy of a bank regulator on the bank’s aggregate and bank-specific information affects welfare. With the assumption that bank depositors rely on the bank regulator to collect aggregate bank performance information but have precise private information about bank-specific in-formation, we find that more precise aggregate information disclosed by the bank regulator improves welfare when bank fundamentals are either extremely strong or weak, but tends to reduce welfare when the fundamentals are in the intermediate range where coordination plays a key role. In contrast, more precise bank-specific information disclosed by the regulator tends to increase welfare, even when the fundamentals are in the intermediate range.

Bank Instability: Interbank Linkages and the Role of Disclosure

We study the impact of disclosure about bank fundamentals on depositors’ behavior in the presence (and absence) of economic linkages between financial institutions. Using a controlled laboratory environment, we identify under which conditions disclosure is conducive to bank stability. We find that bank deposits are sensitive to perceived bank performance. While banks with strong fundamentals benefit from more precise disclosure, an opposing effect is present for solvent banks with weaker fundamentals. Depositors take information about economic linkages into account and correctly identify when disclosure about one institution conveys meaningful information for others. Our findings highlight both the costs and benefits of bank transparency and suggest that disclosure is not always stability enhancing.

Bank Instability: Interbank Linkages and the Role of Disclosure

We study the impact of disclosure about bank fundamentals on depositors’ behavior in the presence (and absence) of economic linkages between financial institutions. Using a controlled laboratory environment, we identify under which conditions disclosure is conducive to bank stability. We find that bank deposits are sensitive to perceived bank performance. While banks with strong fundamentals benefit from more precise disclosure, an opposing effect is present for solvent banks with weaker fundamentals. Depositors take information about economic linkages into account and correctly identify when disclosure about one institution conveys meaningful information for others. Our findings highlight both the costs and benefits of bank transparency and suggest that disclosure is not always stability enhancing.

Contagion, Not Only Interconnection: Measuring the Transmission of Financial Distress

This paper proposes a novel approach to understand contagion of financial distress in the banking system, which takes into account the spatial nature of the phenomena. We use a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model that treats the likelihood of default of each bank as endogenous, and dependent on the network formed by all the other banks. Identification is achieved by controlling for bank fundamentals, latent macrofinancial and bank specific shocks that have similar consequences to contagion and act as confounding factors. Through the lens of a simulations exercise we study the importance of the structure of financial networks for financial stability, shedding light on the empirical adherence of important theoretical propositions that remain untested.

Lending Next to the Courthouse: The Salience of Adverse Events and Mortgage Lending Decisions

Adverse housing market events can affect credit conditions not only by hurting the financial fundamentals of banks, but may also by changing the lending behaviors of individual loan officers. In this paper, we test the latter mechanism by analyzing loan-level mortgage applications from 2008 to 2016 and utilizing a distinctive setup in the home foreclosure process: foreclosure auctions are typically held live at the county courthouse, thus making loan officers working nearby more exposed to news about the county-wise foreclosures. By comparing lending outcomes across loan applications within the same county and across branches of the same bank, we find that mortgage lending standards are more stringent when the decisions are made in bank branches next to county courthouses, resulting in higher rejection rates and smaller approved loan size. Accordingly, aggregating at the branch level, credit supply is significantly tighter at bank branches next to the courthouses relative to other branches of the same bank within the same county. We show that these effects on lending decisions and credit supply increase in the county-wise foreclosure intensity and are especially pronounced among high-risk borrowers and for branches belonging to small-sized banks. Our results are not driven by fundamental differences in borrower and branch characteristics of neighborhoods next to the courthouses and remain robust in a matched sample of branches and loan applications. Overall, our findings provide micro-level evidence that adverse news can have significant impacts on credit market outcomes by changing the risk preferences and beliefs of individual financial decision makers.

State interventions to rescue banks during the global financial crisis

We model unique state interventions to rescue commercial banks during the 2008-09 global financial crisis with the complementary binary logistic model that accommodates their skewed distribution. Our findings show that large and illiquid banks, and banks from countries with weak regulations, and weak shareholder and creditor rights are more likely to receive state interventions. These findings remain robust to a restricted definition of state intervention, alternative measures of bank fundamentals, placebo estimations, counterfactual sampling with propensity scores, bank and country sample splits, and the standard logistic model. These bank and incremental country level predictors can help regulators and supervisors limit future state interventions.