Bankruptcy Potential Research Articles

Comparative analysis of models (Altman, Grover, Zmijewski, Springate) in predicting company bankruptcy potential in the non-cyclical consumer sector

This research aims to conduct a comparative analysis of models (Altman, Grover, Zmijewski, Springate) in predicting potential bankruptcy for companies in the non-cyclical consumer sector listed on the IDX in 2020-2022. The main aim of this research is to test the results of the comparison of four models and test the accuracy of the prediction model in predicting bankruptcy. The data in this research is 240 data, namely 3 years of timeseries data and 80 companies using purposive sampling techniques according to certain criteria. Data analysis used the Kruskal Wallis Difference Test and Accuracy Level Test. The research results show that the Altman, Grover, Zmijewski, and Springate models have significant differences in results in predicting bankruptcy and the accuracy level test produces the Grover model with the best level of accuracy in predicting bankruptcy in non-cyclical consumer sector companies in 2020-2022.

EFFECTIVENESS OF RGEC- BANK SOUNDNESS LEVEL AND INFLATION RATE IN PREDICTING POTENTIAL BANKRUPTCY OF BANKS: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

This study examines the effectiveness of RGEC-based bank soundness and inflation rate in predicting the potential for bankruptcy. The samples in this study are the banking sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2016 to 2020. Using several proxies of the RGEC-based bank soundness and inflation rate, the results of this study indicate that the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR), self-assessment of good corporate governance, and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) affect the potential of bankruptcy negatively and significantly. Furthermore, non-performing loans (NPL), return on assets (ROA), and inflation rate do not affect the potential for bankruptcy. The result shows that only two indicators, among four of RGEC-based bank soundness, effectively predict the potential bankruptcy. These results suggest that if banking management wants to predict and anticipate bankruptcy based on the bank’s soundness, it can be considered to see and maintain the LDR and self-assessment of GCG and CAR.

ОЦЕНКА ПОТЕНЦИАЛЬНОСТИ БАНКРОТСТВА И РАЗРАБОТКА КОМПЛЕКСНЫХ МЕРОПРИЯТИЙ ПО ПОВЫШЕНИЮ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ УСТОЙЧИВОСТИ КОММЕРЧЕСКОЙ ОРГАНИЗАЦИИ

At the present stage of economic development, one of the most important areas of financial analysis is to assess the potential for bankruptcy. It is based on a comprehensive analysis of the financial condition of the organization, special attention is paid, first of all, to the assessment of solvency, financial stability, business activity and profitability. At the final stage of assessing the potential of an organization’s bankruptcy, anti-crisis strategies should be developed, which come in different directions: production, marketing, etc. At the same time, special attention should be paid to cost reduction issues, that is, production strategy. The purpose of this work is to develop an industrial anti-crisis strategy based on the assessment of the potential bankruptcy of organizations engaged in the provision of services in the field of electricity and energy supply. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and implemented: the theoretical foundations of diagnosing the potential bankruptcy of an organization and developed anti-crisis strategies were studied; an assessment of the potential of bankruptcy based on a multi-criteria approach to its diagnosis was carried out (indicators characterizing liquidity, financial stability, business activity and profitability of the studied organizations were evaluated); a comprehensive analysis of the financial condition was carried out and an assessment of the potential of bankruptcy was given according to the methods of William Henry Beaver and Edward Altman; an anti-crisis production strategy was developed to improve the financial condition of the organization and prevent bankruptcy. The object of the study is an organization engaged in the transmission of electricity and technical equipment, located on the territory of the Krasnodar Territory and the Republic of Adygea.

The Effect Of Capital Structure And Potential Bankruptcy On Share Prices In Building Construction Companies Listed On The Idx

This study aims to determine the effect of capital structure and potential bankruptcy on share prices in building construction companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The sampling technique used in this study was purposive sampling. The sample of this study was 17 building construction companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2019-2022 period. There are three variables in this study, namely capital structure and bankruptcy potential as independent variables and stock prices as dependent variables. The method used in this study was panel data analysis. The results showed that the capital structure and potential for partial bankruptcy had a positive and significant effect on the share price of building construction companies for the 2019-2022 period. Simultaneously, capital structure and potential bankruptcy have a significant effect on the share price of building construction companies.

Altman Z-Score Accuracy in Predicting the Potential Bankruptcy of Issuers in the Sector Restaurant, Hotel And Tourism During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of the Altman Z-Score in predicting the potential for bankruptcy of public sector companies, hotels and tourism. This study used a quantitative descriptive research design because the data used are quantitative data and the bankruptcy variable described using the Altman Z-Score method. The data used are secondary data derived from the financial statements of issuers in the tourism, restaurant and hotel sectors including data on working capital to total assets, retained earnings to total assets, earnings before interest and taxes to total assets, and total equity to total debt. . The results showed that 19% of companies that experienced losses in 2021, the remaining 81% of companies experienced losses. The results of the classification comparison based on the Z-Score value and the auditor's opinion show that 43% was accurate, while the remaining 57% was inaccurate.

Analisis Laporan Keuangan Untuk Memprediksi Tingkat Kebangkrutan Dengan Menggunakan Model Altman Z- Score, Grover dan Zmijewski

This study aims to analyze financial statements to determine the potential for bankruptcy in companies in the transportation and logistics sector using the Altman Z-score, Grover and Zmijewski methods. The research used is quantitative with a descriptive approach. The population used is 28 companies in the transportation and logistics sector. The sample used in this research was 15 companies using purposive sampling technique in taking the sample. Statistical analysis in this study uses the calculation of the company's financial ratios from each bankruptcy method. The data used is secondary data in the form of financial reports obtained from the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The results showed that of the 15 sample companies using the Altman method, 8 were bankrupt, 1 was a gray area, 6 were healthy. Grover's results are 7 bankrupt and 8 healthy and Zmijewski's results are 10 bankrupt, 5 healthy. And of the 15 sample companies, there are 5 companies that have a greater potential for bankruptcy using these three methods.

Analisis Kebangkrutan Pada Perusahaan Sektor Pariwisata, Restoran, dan Hotel

The purpose was to test the bankruptcy potential and accuracy of the three models used to analyze company insolvency using the Altman Z-Score, Springate S-Score, and Zmijewski X-Score methods. Each model is calculated using ratio analysis of the elements of assets, liabilities, equity, and retained earnings. This study used secondary data that had been processed. The samples are tourism, restaurant and hotel companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2018-2022. Using the purposive sampling method, predetermined criteria so that 26 companies with a total of 130 data. The analysis technique is to calculate financial ratios, then compare the results of the three bankruptcy prediction models and test their accuracy. As a result, the Springate S-Score model with the highest accuracy of 80.77% is considered more accurate in predicting the possibility of bankruptcy which supported by the existence of companies suspended by the IDX due to going concern issues.

Prediction of Potential Bankruptcy of Mining and Petroleum Companies in Indonesia

This research was conducted to provide information to stakeholders about the sustainability of mining and oil companies in Indonesia. Thus, the financial distress model (Altman Z-score) was adopted in this study to predict bankruptcy potential in mining and oil companies in Indonesia. This research uses descriptive method with a quantitative approach. The population in this study consists of mining and oil companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the 2010-2018 period. The sampling technique used purposive sampling technique. The results of the data calculation show that working capital to total assets (X1), retained earnings to total assets (X2), earnings before interest and taxes to total assets (X3), market value of equity to book value of debt (X4), and sales to total assets (X5) has a positive value. This means that all mining and petroleum companies in the sample have a very healthy financial condition and indicate that the company is in the non- bankrupt company category. This study only analyses financial statements (fundamental analysis), thus ignoring the cost of capital. This will make it difficult to know whether a company has succeeded in creating value or not.

Analysis Potential of Company Bankruptcy at PT. Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk

Analysis of Company Bankruptcy Potential at PT. Gowa Makassar Tourism Development TBK. Thesis. Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Business. Makassar public university. Supervised by Mr. Muhammad Ilham Wardhana Haeruddin and Mr. Nurman. This study aims to determine the potential for corporate bankruptcy at PT. Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk Period 2017 to 2021. The type of research used is quantitative descriptive. The population in this study is the financial statements of PT. Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk. The sample of this research is the income statement and balance sheet from the financial statements of PT. Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk. 2017 to 2021. The data collection technique used is Documentation. Data analysis techniques are used to assess, identify, and explain the possibility of bankruptcy. The results of this study indicate the analysis of the level of bankruptcy of the modified Altman Z-score model of PT. Gowa Makassar Tourism Development TBK. the 2017-2021 period is categorized as being in good health or not bankrupt.

Analysis Of The Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Financial Performance And Survival Of Companies In The Food Beverage Idustrial Sector And Restaurant Services From Potential Bankruptcy Using Financial Ratio And Taffler Analysis Models

This study aims to identify the influence analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic's impact on financial performance and company resilience from potential bankruptcy in the food and beverage sector and restaurant service sector listed on The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study was measured using rentability ratios, profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, solvency ratios, and Taffler Models to measure the potential for bankruptcy of a company. The results indicated significant differences in the rentability ratios represented by the return on assets ratio in companies in the food and beverage sector. Meanwhile, other ratios and potential bankruptcy using the Taffler model did not show a significant difference. Furthermore, in restaurant service companies, there were significant differences in all ratios tested, namely rentability ratio, profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, solvency ratios, and bankruptcy potential using the Taffler model. This study also shows that the average company in the food and beverage sector has resistance to potential bankruptcy compared to those in the restaurant service sector.

Financial Performance Analysis and Financial Distress Prediction of Indonesia State-Owned Enterprises in The Construction Industry Listed on IDX Before and During Economic Crisis in the Covid-19 Pandemic Era (Period 2019 - 2021)

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought an immense impact on Indonesia’s economy. Indonesia officially went into recession after the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, namely in the second quarter (-5.32%) and the third quarter (-3.49%) of 2020. Indonesia’s contracted economy has caused depression in many Indonesian sectors. The results of a survey by BPS in 2020 noted that the construction sector was recorded as one of the sectors that experienced the most decline in revenue, which was 87.94%. This study aims to measure the financial performance and health condition of Indonesian construction SOEs listed on IDX namely ADHI, PTPP, WSKT, and WIKA based on the decree of the Ministry of SOEs no. KEP-100/MBU/2002 as well as the financial distress prediction (bankruptcy potential) by using the Altman Z-Score method for the period 2019 to 2021. The result of the financial health rank level of each company from 2019 to 2021: ADHI (BBB, CCC, and B), PTPP (BBB, B, and BB), WSKT (BB, CC, and B), and WIKA (A, B, and B) respectively. According to the Altman Z-score result, all companies experienced declining in the total Altman Z-score results from 2019 to 2021 and were interpreted as being in a state of financial distress, except for WSKT. This study will complete previous research with a different approach and focus that can give a more equipped view regarding the impact of Covid-19 on the construction industry in Indonesia.

Katılım Bankalarının Finansal Sağlamlığının Bankometer ve Z-Skor Yöntemleriyle Analizi

Bu araştırmada katılım bankacılığı sektörünün finansal açıdan sağlamlığı ve borç ödeme gücü Türkiye bağlamında incelenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren beş katılım bankasının (Albaraka Türk, Kuveyt Türk, Türkiye Finans, Vakıf Katılım Bankası, Ziraat Katılım Bankası) durumu 2016-2020 dönemi finansal verilerinden hareketle analiz edilmiştir. Araştırmada Shar vd. (2010) tarafından geliştirilen Bankometer modeli bankaların borç ödeme gücünü ölçmek için; Altman (1968) tarafından geliştirilen Z-Skor modeli de bankaların iflas potansiyelini tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Araştırmada kullanılan Z-Skor modeli sonuçlarına göre hem özel sermayeli hem de kamu sermayeli katılım bankalarının iflas riskiyle karşı karşıya oldukları; Bankometer modeli sonuçlarına göre ise katılım bankalarının incelenen dönemlerde çoğunlukla gri bölgede yer aldıkları ve finansal zorluk yaşama potansiyeli taşıdığı sonuçlarına ulaşılmıştır.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ALTMAN, SPRINGATE AND ZMIJEWSKI MODELS IN PREDICTING BANKRUPTCY

This study aims to determine the potential for bankruptcy in timber sub-sector companies and their management that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2017-2020 period using the Altman, Springate, and Zmijewski models and to find out the comparison of the three models. This type of research is quantitative research. The research population is the company's sub-sector of wood and its processing. The research sample is PT. SLJ Global Tbk (SULI) and PT. Tirta Mahakam Resources Tbk (TIRT). Data analysis techniques use the Altman, Springate, and Zmijewski models. The results of the study show that SULI and TIRT are predicted to experience potential bankruptcy in 2017-2021 using the Altman and Zmijewski model. 2018-2021 for SULI and 2020-2021 for TIRT using the Springate model. The results of the Mann Whitney test show that there is no difference in predicting the potential for bankruptcy of SULI and TIRT using the three models.

Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan dan Good Corporate Governance terhadap Potensi Kebangkrutan Bank Muamalat Indonesia

This study aims to examine the effect of financial performance and GCG variables represented by the presence of the Sharia Supervisory Board on the potential for bankruptcy of Bank Muamalat Indonesia. The type of data used is secondary data sourced from financial statements and corporate GCG reports using multiple linear analysis data analysis methods with data processing tools using EViews 10 software. The results of this study indicate that NPF has a significant negative effect, FDR has a significant negative effect, and CAR has a significant negative effect. significant positive on the potential for bankruptcy of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, then the presence of DPS also has a significant effect. positive effect in reducing the risk of bankruptcy.

Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Sub Sektor Transportasi yang Terdaftar di BEI Sebelum dan Selama Pandemi Covid-19

The PSBB policy implemented by the government to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a decline in company performance in the transportation sub-sector, resulting in a very drastic decrease in profits during the COVID-19 pandemic. This situation will make it difficult for the company to experience financial distress and even bankruptcy. This study objective is to analyze the bankruptcy of transportation companies listed on the IDX before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample used in this study consisted of 40 companies listed on the Stock Exchange with a purposive sampling method. Annual financial report data is obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data analysis technique used is the Altman Z-Score analysis using the third model formula for non-manufacturing companies. Based on this research, it can be concluded that there is a significant difference between the potential of bankruptcy of the transportation sub-sector companies before and during the covid-19 pandemic, this is proven by the Wilcoxon test results show a probability value < 0.05 or 0.043 < 0.05. Transportation sub-sector companies have the potential to go bankrupt during the covid-19 pandemic, this is proven by the average Z-Score of transportation companies which has decreased from -0.3458 to -1.2840 during the covid-19 pandemic. Keyword: altman z-score, bankruptcy analysis, transportation

FRAUD PENTAGON AND POTENTIAL BANKRUPTCY AT PROPERTY & REAL ESTATE COMPANY

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of indicators on pentagon fraud on potential bankruptcy in property & real estate companies for the 2018 - 2020 reporting year. Pentagon fraud consists of indicators of pressure, rationalization, capability, arrogance, and opportunity while potential bankruptcy uses the Zmijewski model. Data was collected using content analysis methods from financial reports and annual reports obtained from the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and the company's official website. The method of data analysis was carried out using regression analysis with the help of SPSS software. The results of the analysis of 129 company report data show that only one indicator of the fraud pentagon has an effect on the potential for bankruptcy, namely pressure. There is no empirical support for other indicators, namely Rationalization, Capability, Arrogance and Opportunity for potential bankruptcy. This study provides a theoretical contribution to the study of the fraud pentagon and the potential for bankruptcy. A better understanding of indicators of fraud enables companies to prevent potential bankruptcy.

Analisis Kinerja Dan Posisi Keuangan Pt Garuda Indonesia Tbk Berdasarkan Indikator Rasio Keuangan, Tingkat Kesehatan Dan Prediksi Keuangan

The purpose of this study was to determine the level of health in the Financial Aspects of the state-owned company PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk for the period 2017, 2018 and 2019 using financial ratios based on the Decree of the Minister of SOEs No. KEP-100/KBU/2002 dated June 4, 2002 concerning Assessment of the Health Level of State-Owned Enterprises and analysis of potential bankruptcy using the Altman Z-Score model. The method used in this study is a comparative descriptive quantitative method using a secondary data analysis approach sourced from the consolidated financial statements of PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk. The results showed that the Company's Health Level was measured by the criteria according to the Decree of the Minister of SOEs No. KEP-100/KBU/2002, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, can be classified as Unhealthy in the "BBB" category, because the score is in the range 50 < TS <= 65, and the potential for bankruptcy based on the Altman Z-Score analysis shows PT Garuda Tbk Indonesia during 2017, 2018 and 2019 was in the Distress Zone because it obtained a score of <1.1 or it can be said that the company has a strong potential for bankruptcy.
 Keywords: Health Level, Bankruptcy Potential, Decree of the Minister of SOEs No. 100/MBU/2002, Altman Z-score.

Analisis Z-Score Pada PT. Air Asia Indonesia Tbk.

This study discusses the health conditions of the aviation industry company, namely PT. Air Asia Indonesia Tbk. The purpose of this study was to determine the company's health condition in accordance with the results of the Z-Score of the Altman method at PT. Air Asia Indonesia Tbk. The data analysis method used is descriptive quantitative by calculating the numbers in the financial statements of PT. Air Asia Indonesia Tbk.. The data analysis technique used is the Altman Z-Score model. Data collection techniques are carried out through documentation of the data published by PT. Air Asia Indonesia Tbk. To determine the results in this study used the I. Altman Z-score model in 1968. The results of this study found that PT. Air Asia Indonesia Tbk for 4 (four) years experienced financial difficulties or was in the classification of high potential for bankruptcy. This has a direct impact on stock prices and earnings before interest and taxes which continue to decline.

Early Warning Sistem Perusahaan Era Pandemi Covid-19

To break the chain of spread of the Covid-19 virus, the Government implemented a policy of restricting people's movements. The fact that occurred due to restrictions on community activities, the wheels of the economy were disrupted, even some business activities were closed. The formulation of the research problem, how are the results of the analysis of the Springate, Altman, Grover and Zmijewski Bankruptcy prediction models in the Covid-19 pandemic era. The purpose of the study was to empirically test the springate, altman, grover and zmijewski bankruptcy prediction models in companies during the covid-19 pandemic era. The research subjects are companies listed on the Indonesia stock exchange for the hotel, restaurant and tourism sub-sector in 2020. The results of the springate model test (s-score) show that 25 companies are predicted to have the potential to go bankrupt, 3 companies are predicted to be healthy. Altman model (Z-Score) shows that 16 companies are predicted to have the potential to go bankrupt, 4 companies experience a slight potential for bankruptcy and 4 companies are healthy. The grover model (G-Score) shows that 6 companies are predicted to have the potential to go bankrupt, 22 companies are healthy. The zmijewski model (X-Score) shows that 1 company is predicted to have the potential to go bankrupt, 27 companies are predicted to be healthy. The four models that show the same results for companies that are predicted to be healthy are PT. Asia Sejahtera Mina, Tbk with the issuer code AGAR.

Financial Risk Management in 2020's Recession: Evidence from ASEAN Countries

This study aims to determine the effect of bank financial risk consisting of liquidity risk, credit risk, and other factors on bank stability. This study took samples from 41 open conventional banks in five ASEAN countries that experienced crises, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. The analysis methods used in this study are a combination of simultaneous and non-simultaneous GMM and VECM for the data period between Q-4 2015 to Q-3 2020. It covers the period before and during the crisis. This study found a reciprocal effect of the two financial risks on bank stability in the long term, an effect of the combined two risks ­on bank stability in the short term, and other factors that also affect each of the risks and bank stability. The results of this study can provide further knowledge about bank financial risk management that can be useful for reducing the potential for bank bankruptcy during a crisis.