Bank Stock Research Articles

Predicting Bank Nifty Movements Based on ICICI, HDFC, and Axis Bank Returns

This study investigates the link between the returns of ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Axis Bank and the overall performance of the Bank Nifty index, which is a crucial measure of the Indian banking sector's health on the National Stock Exchange. Using five years of historical data, regression analysis and descriptive statistics evaluate trends, correlations, and prediction accuracy in anticipating Bank Nifty returns based on the performance of these large banks. The study finds that while Bank Nifty displays stability as it aggregates multiple bank stocks, individual banks like Axis Bank and HDFC exhibit distinct volatility patterns, with Axis Bank showing significant fluctuations due to firm-specific and external factors.Regression results show a little association between individual bank returns and the Bank Nifty, indicating that the index has limited predictive value for single equities. Nonetheless, knowing these patterns may help investors manage risk, anticipate market changes, and develop portfolio diversification methods. The findings emphasize the relevance of sector-specific patterns, implying that although Bank Nifty captures broad market movements, other elements have a distinct influence on each bank's performance, providing insights for more sophisticated investment and risk management methods.

Dynamic Connectivity and Contagion Risk Among Bank Stocks in Brazil

Dynamic Connectivity and Contagion Risk Among Bank Stocks in Brazil

Decoding the stock market dynamics in the banking sector: Short versus long-term insights

The severity of extreme fluctuations and crises within the global banking sector is escalating. Conventional models, operating on a single time scale, may misinterpret any shift as a change in the long-term trend, distorting market insights. To address this issue, the present paper introduces a hierarchical structure into the standard hidden Markov model, enabling the differentiation of short and long-term trends within the U.S. banking industry. Using NASDAQ Bank stock market index data from January 1, 2007, to July 31, 2023 at two different frequencies, we construct and evaluate different calibrations of the hierarchical hidden Markov model. Results reveal two long-term regimes: turbulent periods with high volatility, instability, and negative returns, and prevalent stable markets. Within each of them, two distinct states representing short-term trends are identified, exhibiting significant differences in persistence, likelihood, expected returns, and risk profiles. The results show that an investor should carefully differentiate between regimes on both hierarchies to make informed investment decisions.

Exploring the impact of financial development on energy intensity in a global study: Do levels of innovation and technology matter?

The present study aims to investigate the effect of financial development on energy intensity (EI) at different levels of innovation and technology. In addition, this study seeks to answer whether financial development affects EI and how such effect alters in the presence of varying levels of innovation and technology. To this aim, a panel smoothing transition regression (PSTR) method was used on a sample of OPEC + countries during 2000–20. Sectors of financial development affect EI at various levels of innovation and technology differently. Based on the results, the development of the banking sector and stock market increases EI to a certain level of the threshold variable (0.28 and 0.21 %, respectively), which is research and development (R&D) expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic production (GDP). Total financial development affects EI slightly differently. The above-mentioned process reduces EI up to a certain level of the threshold (0.25 %). Then, the process decreases EI more significantly. The present study aims to assess the specific effect of financial development on EI based on the level of innovation and technology. The results indicate that the behavior of the evaluated countries, which plays a significant role in proven oil reserves, crude oil production, and oil trade in the world, becomes similar to that of developed countries after reaching a certain threshold level of innovation and technology.

Global Green Finance: Roadmap for India

Climate change, and especially, ‘climate deterioration’ is an alarming situation for the global scenario, and thus, the need for developing financial services and products that aim to reduce the effects of these changes is the need of the hour. This long-felt need has given birth to a new form of investing, known as green finance or broadly, sustainable finance. So, it can be said that green finance is a subset under the larger umbrella of the concept of sustainable finance. This article tries to bring to the knowledge of the readers the basic understanding of the concept of green finance, its various instruments available globally and its developments at the global and Indian level, highlighting the three stages of green finance’s evolution and its major theories. Further, it reveals the global presence of major green finance instruments like green bonds and its types, green mutual funds (MFs) and green stock exchanges. The article also deals with the concepts of emissions trading system and European Union’s Carbon Border Tax. The discussion becomes more specific in the subsequent sections, drawing the present picture of green finance concerning the Indian scenario—its green bank, green bonds, green MF and green stock exchange. Reserve Bank of India’s recent guidelines regarding green finance and India’s presidency at the last held G20 summit are also discussed, finally concluding with mapping the road ahead for India.

The Impact of COVID19 Spread on the Listed Egyptian Banks Stock Market Returns

The Impact of COVID19 Spread on the Listed Egyptian Banks Stock Market Returns

The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates and Non-Performing Loans On Stock Returns Through Profitability In Banking Companies Indonesia Period 2018-2022

Even if the Indonesian economy has grown and the stock market has improved after COVID-19, banking stock returns in Indonesia have remained stagnant. The returns on Indonesian banking stocks in 2022 were much lower than in prior years. Identifying the internal and external variables that contributed to the fall in these shares is an obvious challenge. The purpose of this study is to investigate how return on assets (ROA) acts as a mediator between inflation, interest rates, non-performing loans, and stock returns. Thirty businesses make up the sample for this study, which employs testing methodologies including multiple regression and route analysis. Additionally, in order to find the indirect impact, the Sobel test must be used. This study found that stock returns are positively affected by inflation and return on assets, but unaffected by interest rates and non-performing loans. Unlike inflation and interest rates, return on assets can moderate the impact of non-performing loans on stock returns. stock performance. Things that could affect future returns should be carefully considered by investors.

Wavelet quantile correlation between DeFi assets and banking stocks

We examine time frequency quantile correlation and portfolio benefits between decentralized finance (DeFi) assets and G7 banking stocks We employ wavelet quantile correlation to examine the correlation between DeFi and bank stocks. Notably, results reveal diversification benefits in the short to medium term and highlight DeFi assets' hedging and safe-haven properties, particularly against Japanese banking stocks. Further, bivariate portfolio analysis provides optimal allocation strategies. Our research offers new guidance for investors, portfolio managers, and regulators regarding the intersection of DeFi and traditional banking stocks.

Connectedness and systemic risk between FinTech and traditional financial stocks: Implications for portfolio diversification

The rapid growth in FinTech is attracting significant investor attention. There are concerns that FinTech stocks may be a source of systemic risk and this has implications for the stability of the financial sector. This study uses a TVP-VAR model to estimate the dynamic connectedness between global FinTech stocks and the stocks of large US banks, regional US banks, US insurance, and global private equity. The findings reveal that FinTech and insurance stocks are net receivers of shocks while large US banks are a major source of shocks. Thus, FinTech stocks are not a source of systemic risk but can be affected by financial contagion and systemic risk originating from large US banks. The highest connectedness was observed at the onset of the COVID-19 lockdowns illustrating the dramatic impact that a health pandemic can have on systemic risk. Systemic risk also increased during the 2023 US bank panic. Connectedness has implications for constructing investment portfolios. The equally weighted, risk parity, and risk parity connectedness portfolios have similar portfolio summary statistics, but lower risk adjusted returns than the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio which better captures the low correlation between FinTech stocks and traditional financial stocks. These results are robust across various portfolio rebalancing periods (daily, weekly, monthly).

Defining blood deserts and access to blood products for 660 million people: a geospatial analysis of eight states in Northern India

IntroductionBlood transfusion is crucial, but low-income and middle-income countries like India face a severe shortage of banked blood. This study focuses on the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states in India,...

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank’s deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency (CBDC) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the other side, a negative bank disintermediation effect. The optimal amount of CBDC lies between 15 and 45 percent of quarterly GDP. (JEL E23, E42, E58, F33, G14, G21)

Analisis pengaruh faktor fundamental terhadap harga saham perbankan

This research examines the influence of fundamental factors (ROE, NPM, and EPS) on stock prices. This research is a type of associative quantitative research category through purposive sampling in obtaining a sample of 39 companies. All banks listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) in the 2019-2022 period are the target population of the research. This study collected archival data from official IDX website. The data is analysed using multiple linear regression with the help of the SPSS 26.0 Data Processing Software Application. The results showed that ROE and NPM have no significant effect on stock prices partially. Meanwhile, EPS has a significant effect on banking stock prices. A higher increase in EPS will have a significant impact on the raising of firm value in the capital market. For investors, EPS can be a major consideration in determining investment decisions. For banking companies, it is important to pay attention and improve the company's performance, especially related to EPS which has a significant influence on the increase in stock prices.

Do bank stock prices efficiently reflect the information content in a key tax reform event?

Do bank stock prices efficiently reflect the information content in a key tax reform event?

Factors Affecting Banking Stock Price on the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2017 to 2021

Factors Affecting Banking Stock Price on the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2017 to 2021

Risk and Return Analysis of Stocks of Nepalese Commercial Banks

This research article analyzes the impact of risk and return of Nepalese commercial bank stocks on portfolio returns to assist investors in making informed investment decisions. It aims to examine the effects of individual bank stock returns, risks, market return, and market risk (beta) on overall portfolio performance. The study utilizes a quantitative approach, employing descriptive statistics, comparative (trend) analysis, correlation analysis, and hypothesis testing. Secondary data was collected from 18 commercial banks in Nepal, including post-merger banks, covering the fiscal years from 2015/16 to 2021/22. Statistical tools such as SPSS and EViews were used for analysis. The findings indicate that investors seeking higher returns might consider Prabhu Bank, which offers high mean returns but also comes with higher volatility. In contrast, risk-averse investors may prefer banks like NMB and Nabil, which provide lower mean returns but more stable performance. Notably, this research contributes to the understanding of the risk-return relationship in the context of 18 Nepalese commercial banks post-merger, providing new insights for investors. This study highlights the importance of analyzing individual bank stocks and their associated risks for portfolio construction. By understanding the dynamics of risk and return, investors can optimize their investment strategies and enhance portfolio performance. Overall, this research fills a gap in existing literature by focusing on the Nepalese commercial banking sector and its implications for investor decision-making. The insights gained from this study can guide investors in navigating the complexities of the stock market, ultimately leading to more informed and strategic investment choices. Future research could expand on this work by exploring additional factors influencing stock performance and investor behavior in the Nepalese context.

On bank stock return spillovers in South Africa: Implications for portfolio hedging

The purpose of this study is to investigate the return spillovers among the five systemically important banks in South Africa. The study employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework utilising daily data between 2000 and 2024. A minimum return connectedness portfolio is constructed from the spillover indexes and compared with traditional portfolio optimisation methods in terms of risk reduction and reward-to-risk ratios. The research findings reveal that Capitec, the smallest bank in terms of assets, has weaker return connectedness with other banks while ABSA, FirstRand, Nedbank and Standard Bank are moderately connected. Moreover, the two largest banks in terms of assets, Standard and FirstRand, are more connected than any other pairwise connection in the network. During significant events such as national elections, the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, system-wide connectedness increases.

Asset Management at Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank

Asset Management at Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank

Pengaruh ROA, ROE, dan EPS Terhadap Harga Saham Perbankan Buku III Yang Tercatat di BEI

The investment in the capital market is currently increasing among the public, emphasizing the urgency of providing financial literacy to enable individuals to make informed and intelligent investment decisions in the capital market. BUKU III was selected due to the relatively low per-share stock prices of the existing banks, allowing the public to have higher purchasing power. ROA, ROE, and EPS were chosen as the factors under review due to their widespread availability in financial reports, serving as a reference for the public in determining their investment choices. Previous studies focused on the impact of ROA, ROE, and EPS on stock prices in the BUKU IV (Tahir, Djuwarsa, and Mayasari, 2021). Their findings revealed that ROA had no significant independent influence on stock prices. Conversely, ROE and EPS, independently, significantly influenced stock prices in BUKU IV banks. Additionally, the simultaneous impact of ROA, ROE, and EPS affected the stock prices of BUKU IV banks. This study aims to explore whether ROA, ROE, and EPS exert influence on the BUKU III banks stock prices listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research method employed is the hypotheticodeductive method, utilizing quarterly data from 2018 to 2022, with a sample size of 5 companies. Data were collected from Stockbit, and the analysis methods used included t-tests, F-tests, and multiple linear regression analysis using Microsoft Office Excel and SPSS tools. The results indicate that ROA, ROE, and EPS do not have a partial or simultaneous impact on the stock prices of BUKU III banks.

Examines several things that affect the price of banking stocks: Evidence from Indonesia

Examines several things that affect the price of banking stocks: Evidence from Indonesia

Does being a responsible bank pay off? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

We investigate whether banks’ initial responses during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in supporting their customers, communities, and governments were perceived as value-enhancing by investors. Using a unique responsible banking measure for a sample of the largest US and European commercial banks, we find a negative relationship between responsible bank behavior and stock market performance, particularly in the first wave of the pandemic. We also find that riskier banks were affected more negatively if they behaved responsibly. Overall, our findings show that banks’ responsible behavior during a crisis reduces, or at best is not relevant to, shareholder value.