Bank Sales Research Articles

Прогнозирование банковских продаж на примере ПАО «Сбербанк»

Introduction. This scientific study highlights the relevance of modeling and forecasting sales of Sberbank in terms of effective business management. Sales forecast is an important tool for predicting the demand for goods and services, as well as determining the adequate strategies and tactics to achieve the company’s goals. The research is distinguished by its reference to artificial intelligence methods in the field of marketing. Forecasting methods applied to a proprietary data sample of Sberbank’s daily sales give novel results, which reliably supports the development of adequate strategies and tactics for successful business management. The key hypothesis of the study is to check the prognostic potential of machine learning methods against the traditional econometric approaches to modeling Sberbank’s sales. The purpose of the study is to develop sales forecasting models for multifunctional products and their practical instruments for Sberbank’s Sales Network Block. Materials and Methods. The study relies on the methods of system-oriented analysis, statistical and economic mathematical methods of data analysis and their processing. Collected and pre-processed sales data for Sberbank’s phantom products reflecting the dynamics of bank sales were used for computational experiments to build a few forecasting models and justify the choice of the best model among those built. Results. Random Forest and Gradient Busting (XGBRegressor) Models used training and test samples to give the forecasts with the accuracy significantly higher than the accuracy of forecasts by ARIMA-model and linear regression. Conclusions. The results of the analysis reliably confirm that machine learning methods are currently promising methods for forecasting bank sales and can be the subject of further research in this area. Machine learning techniques introduced into banking practices have the potential to significantly improve the effectiveness of existing sales and risk management.

Розробка систем оцінки ефективності команд із залучення-продажу нових клієнтів

In 2019 at IBM, it was found that there is a strong dependence on a few large banks in bank sales, and the growth targets of the sales division cannot be achieved due to the existing business with these same customers. To counteract this dependency, an NCA-specific sales team for the banking industry was established to support small and medium-sized banks with personal commitment and expertise and to develop them into long-term business partners of IBM. This research focuses on the development of a performance measurement system for NCA-Sales teams. It postulates the hypothesis that more effective and better-suited performance measurement systems can be developed for NCA-Sales of information technology towards financial institutions. Authors use the methodology of expert interviews and Mayrings qualitative content analysis to gain insights into the relevant factors that need to be considered when evaluating the performance of such sales teams. The paper identifies stakeholders, challenges, and goals that should be integrated into a performance measurement system as well as KPIs to measure them. The results are being consolidated into a conceptual sketch for an NCA-sales optimized PMS. The paper distinguishes itself from other research through an approach that gives detailed guidance for the practical implementation of its findings. The research was conducted with professionals in the IT sector; however, all of them were working for the same company, and the data was collected in the short span of one week as it was part of a research. The outcome can be used for further studies on how to effectively measure performance in NCA-Sales teams.

Review of The Literature, Prospects, and The Impact of Bancassurance on The Stability of The Banking Industry

Existing literature, as well as empirical studies on Bancassurance, emphasize that there has been a shifting business in the bank from selling bank products to IKNB (Non-Bank Financial Industry). In this study, Bancassurance is one of the IKNBs that must be sold because the feather-based income is quite large and has a small risk because the bank is a referral as a distribution agent. The purpose of this research is to determine the characteristics of Bancassurance in various countries for the first time in Indonesia so that our human resources are not unfamiliar with the insurance sold in banks and can adjust the strategy to market characteristics in Indonesia. This paper discusses Bancassurance with various methodologies ranging from Expert Judgment to Risk Management by involving 15 international journal studies related to the implementation of Bancassurance in various countries including Google Scholar, Elsevier, and Science Direct. This paper will be useful as a topic for further research where researchers can identify the effect of bancassurance on banking, risks that occur in bancassurance practice, solutions to sales strategies, and system bottlenecks that occur between bank sales and sales bancassurance. The result of this research is the reluctance of selling banks to sell insurance products because they do not understand the concept of life insurance and unit link. In addition, bancassurance sales resources placed in the bank are not as good as insurance agents in general due to different incentives, incentive problems, and bottlenecks in the sales execution flow also make insurance targets cannot be achieved optimally. The solution is that Re-skills must be done in the "Virtual Century" era because the insurance link unit has also shifted from offline meetings to online so that all systems are done digitally. Coordination between resources is expected to go through a digitization process so that customer claims are quickly resolved, referrals are quickly executed and periodic coaching can be carried out by prohibited branch heads/superiors. Bancassurance with unit link customization/personalization will be a new value proposition.

New Bank Resolution Mechanisms: Is It the End of the Bailout Era?

We study the effectiveness of three common bank resolution mechanisms: bailouts, bank sales, and ‘bad banks’. We first apply the financial fragility model of Goodhart et al. (2005, 2006a) to analyze the impact of these resolution mechanisms on bank behavior. We then use a novel bank-level database on 39 countries that used these resolution mechanisms during 1992-2017 and analyze the relationship between the mechanisms applied and subsequent bank performance. We find that the effectiveness of resolution mechanisms depends crucially on the timing and severity of crises. While mergers can deliver good results at the beginning of a crisis, this is less likely at later stages of a crisis. In the event of severe crises, mechanisms aimed at restructuring bank balance sheets are most likely to deliver positive results. We find no support for bank bailouts as an optimal strategy. A calibration exercise shows that the effectiveness of resolution mechanisms to mitigate systemic risk declines with the severity of crises.

Transformacija bankarskih sistema u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana

Thirty years ago, the banks worldwide were doing business only at the national level. The globalization process which started at that time caused the banks to launch their operations at the international level, as well. For the countries of the Western Balkans the transformation of their respective banking systems to a market economy during the 1990's and at the beginning of this century was a great change. The transformation process of state-owned banks itself was mostly conducted by sale of banks to foreign investors. The above-mentioned process brought a host of advantages, such as an improvement of competition and the introduction of new technologies in those countries. The financial crisis that hit the Western Balkans in 2008 exerted an influence on banking operations in these countries. The post-crisis period additionally highlighted the need to harmonize the banking regulation in Europe, with the Single Supervisory Mechanism, which started functioning in 2014, being the initial step towards the formation of the European Banking Union, and the Basel III Accord towards regulating the operations of European banks.

Selling Failed Banks

ABSTRACTThe average FDIC loss from selling a failed bank is 28% of assets. We document that failed banks are predominantly sold to bidders within the same county, with similar assets business lines, when these bidders are well capitalized. Otherwise, they are acquired by less similar banks located further away. We interpret these facts within a model of auctions with budget constraints, in which poor capitalization of some potential acquirers drives a wedge between their willingness and ability to pay for failed banks. We document that this wedge drives misallocation, and partially explains the FDIC losses from failed bank sales.

How prompt was regulatory corrective action during the financial crisis?

This paper empirically investigates the incidence of regulatory forbearance during the financial crisis. Using an option pricing technique in concert with valuation data gathered from failed bank sales, I find that failed banks consistently underreported the level of impairment in loan portfolios during the financial crisis period of 2008–2010, helping these market value insolvent banks to report adequate capital for regulatory purposes. Impairment-adjusted capital ratios provide evidence of regulatory forbearance for up to 18 months prior to seizure. Analyses of bank coverage ratios reveal that coverage ratios are negatively and significantly related to impairment levels and are significantly lower for banks with critically low levels of capital.

Employee volunteer self-regulation and strengthening employee political representation

This article offers an in-depth study of self-regulation of a bank’s employee volunteers as a modality of organizational control from the late 1970s onwards. It also seeks to discuss the affinity between these methodical and intentional organizational practices and other parallel formative events in the sphere of the bank’s industrial relationships. The paper is based on a case study in a privately-owned Israeli bank, from its establishment in 1935 until the late 1970s. Research data was collected using semi-structured interviews and archive material, including dozens of bank bulletins published from 1964 onwards. The article follows the transformation in the self of the bank’s employee, from a passive object of generous workplace health, education, and financial aid welfare programs – established together with the bank itself – to an autonomous and competitive individual who, from the late 1970s onwards, was required to initiate, plan, and participate in community volunteering, to advance bank sales. The article also demonstrates that organizational control of the employee’s self-intensified parallel to greater political status and importance of employee representation during the 1970s. The study challenges positivistic managerial literature that avoids discussing social repercussions of managerial practices of self-construction for volunteering employees. Furthermore, the study raises questions for further research about the nature of the link between corporate volunteering and issues concerning labor relations, such as acceptance or resistance by employees and their representatives of managerial control of self.

Elements of a talent strategy for effective relationship building: A study among bank sales and service providers

This study considers equity sensitivity, emotional labor and organizational commitment as three important variables that play a critical role among sales and service providers at a bank and the effect these variables ultimately have on corporate performance. Using an equity theory perspective, research hypotheses linking the various constructs are formulated. Data are collected from sales and service managers at a community bank and partial aggregation followed by structural equation modeling is used to test the hypotheses. Results are reported, implications to a bank’s talent strategy are drawn, limitations are noted and directions for future research are indicated.

The Impact of the Strategic Sale of Restructured Banks: Evidence from Indonesia

We examine the effect of strategic sale, which is the sale of banks to strategic foreign investors, on bank performance. The Government of Indonesia implemented such a policy as part of a bank restructuring in the aftermath of the 1998 banking crisis. Using difference-in-differences models, we find that strategic sale leads to a 12–15% cost reduction. These results are robust to the use of other estimators such as difference-in-differences matching estimators and stochastic-frontier analysis, to that of other performance measures such as return on assets and net interest margin, and to that of different sample types. These results suggest that strategic sale could play an important role in restructuring troubled banks in developing countries.

Efficiency of E-Learning: The Case of French Bank Sales Force

This article investigates the use and the satisfaction derived from e-learning training by sales representatives of commercial banks in France.The research carried out among these representatives concerns a banking training scheme which was followed from work or from home. The analysis of the data gathered from about thirty interviews shows that learners were satisfied with this e-learning even if it was regularly checked by their superiors. They particularly appreciated the flexibility and the interactivity of e-learning which allowed them to develop new banking skills and to be more autonomous in their commercial function.

Could Gold Serve as an Exchange Rate Hedge in Japan

Gold is the asset that has attracted people for thousands of years and this attraction continues to the present day because, according to Worthington and Pahlavani (2006), unlike most commodities, gold is durable, relatively transportable, universally acceptable and easily authenticated. The demand for gold is ever increasing, not only for jewelry, coins, and bars but also for many industries, such as electronics, space, as well as medical technology. Especially gold is still a form of currency in many countries after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. Many economic analysts suggest that gold prices are determined and influenced by a number of factors, such as mine production, fabrication demand, and the recovery of gold from scrap. Much greater influence is exerted by trends in central bank sales and purchases. Most important of all is trend in investment demand. Investors buy gold for a number of reasons. They buy gold as a hedge against any economic, political, or currency crises. They also buy gold for diversification and financial arbitrage when investment confidence is increasing because they have the common sense that physical assets, unlike financial assets, are the best way to hedge against recession and inflation. The developments of the gold market are followed closely by financial analysts and monetary policy makers and gold price is regarded as a good criterion of the inflationary trend in the future for it moves earlier than official measures of inflation. Fisher (1930), the economist who first pointed out the relationship between expected inflation and interest rate, provides the theoretical basis for this study. Fisher (1930) concludes that expected nominal asset return comprises expected return and expected inflation rate. In other words, when expected inflation rises, asset return will rise. Later, the primary empirical test on inflation hedge of assets including U.S government bonds and bills, real estate, labor income, and stock returns was done by Fama and Schwert (1977). Ghosh et al. (2004) point out that people buy gold for two purposes. The first is the “use demand”, where gold is used directly in the production of jewelry, medals, coins, electrical components, and so on. The second is the “asset demand” for gold, where it is used by governments, fund managers and individuals as an investment. The asset demand for gold is traditionally associated with the view that gold provides an effective “hedge” against inflation and domestic currency depreciation. When it comes to inflation, the value of gold is considered to be preserved, for its price will increase along with the rise in the general level of prices. In other words, it is believed that a higher inflation rate is what gold prices said should be happening. However, the question is that how well gold hedge really works. Each country has its own economic conditions or characteristics. This issue is worth examining and verifying with non-linear model which might discover the key reasons that the linear model is unable to do.In this article, we attempt to examine whether gold could be an exchange rate hedge in Japan using data from 1986 to 2007. In the literature of this area, most research has focused on a linear relationship—rather than a nonlinear one—between returns on gold and the exchange rate of the Japanese yen. In the present paper, we used the depreciation rate of the yen as a threshold variable to distinguish between a high depreciation regime and a low depreciation (or appreciation) regime. With this setting, we build a threshold vector autoregressive model to investigate the causality between the gold return and the yen depreciation rate. We found that when the yen depreciation rate is greater than 2.62%, investing in gold could avoid the depreciation loss. This finding, that the effectiveness of gold as an exchange rate hedge depends on the depreciation rate of the yen, could be beneficial to Japanese government monetary policy and to investors with Japanese yen in their portfolios. JEL classification: C32; F31; F33

保険商品の銀行窓販と拡張メカニズム

保険商品の銀行窓販と拡張メカニズム

Bank sales, spread and profitability: an empirical analysis

This study proves mathematically that in any bank if the growth rate of sales is higher than the absolute growth rate of bank's lending rate, then bank's profits will not decrease. This mathematical expression can be considered as the condition for keeping a bank profitable. An econometric analysis using panel data from the Western European banking sector supports our afore-mentioned mathematical theory.

Effects of Advertising Budget on Bank Sales in Botswana

Effects of Advertising Budget on Bank Sales in Botswana

Compensatory Cyclical Bank Asset Adjustments: Comment

Compensatory Cyclical Bank Asset Adjustments: Comment