Bank Deposit Rates Research Articles

Is Maturity-Transformation Risk Priced into Bank Deposit Rates?

Is Maturity-Transformation Risk Priced into Bank Deposit Rates?

Movements between Foreign Exchange Rates and Bank Interest Rates in Kenya: Analytical Approach

The study sought to analyze the movements between foreign exchange rates and bank interest rates in Kenya. Secondary data was utilized in the study. The data on foreign exchange rates and interest rates for the period covering January 2006 and December 2010 were obtained mainly through document reviews. The data was analysis using multivariate regression. It was established that foreign exchange rates had a significant relationship with bank interest rates. The study further concluded that the movement between the Euro and Bank Deposit Rate was positive and significant. The movement between the US Dollar and Bank Deposit Rate was positive but not significant while the movement between the pound and Bank Deposit Rate was inverse and significant.

An empirical examination of bank deposit rate: the case of western balkans

The banking system is one of the most important parts of the economy of a nation. It must be a well-developed and based in lawful rules in order to generate trust to the citizens. Based on the trust it raises, households interact in different ways; including having loans, depositing their savings, making transfers etc. The main purpose of this paper is to study the impact of various factors on the average rate of the savings that citizens deposit on the commercial banks, known as deposit rate for Western Balkan countries involving Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, North Macedonia and Montenegro, which have almost similar historical developments and economic trends during the decades. Here we will carefully study the impact of three different aspects including macroeconomic, bank specific and demographic factors. To achieve this objective, an empirical study is done where the data set is defined as panel data. The model includes five independent variables; population growth, inflation rate, non-performing loans, liquidity ratio and GDP per capita. The data is taken for the 6 countries mentioned for the years starting from 2010 to 2017. The results of this paper conclude that population growth, GDP per capita and liquidity rate are the main determinants of the dependent variable, which is deposit rate. In addition, the analysis points out that the variable with the highest impact on the dependent variable is population growth. In addition, all of the variables have a direct relationship with deposit rate, except liquidity rate which has a negative impact. Moreover, non-performing loans and inflation rate have no effect on deposit rate.

The EURIBOR surge and bank deposit costs: an investigation of interest rate pass-through and deposit portfolio rebalancing

Against the backdrop of sharp monetary policy tightening, this article studies the links between bank deposit costs and the EURIBOR. In doing so the authors employ an SVAR multivariate model that jointly includes deposit rates and volumes, fitted on monthly data covering the period 2003-2019. Increases in the EURIBOR are found to pass through to bank deposit rates in Spain, pushing up interest rates on term deposits in particular. In turn, increases in the EURIBOR triggered shifts from sight to term deposits. Through both mechanisms, bank deposit costs increased. The article documents that in 2022 the pass-through from the EURIBOR to deposit rates is falling short, relative to what would be expected according to the historical pattern captured by model results; as a result, the increase in bank deposit costs has been weaker than expected. To draw insights into the reasons behind this pattern, the authors analyse several euro area economies. Correlation analyses suggest that the impact of the EURIBOR on deposit rates and costs was weaker in banking sectors with greater excess liquidity and higher market concentration.

Examining the Impact of Parallel Market Fluctuations on Penalty Rate Levels with Predictions of Depositors' Behavior Regarding Deposit Failure Rates

Objective: This research aims to investigate the fluctuations of parallel markets on the level of penalty rates and to propose a conceptual model predicting depositors' behavior regarding deposit failure rates. Theoretically, this study contributes to the development and presentation of factors affecting customers' financial behavior in the banking system (both private and public). From an innovation perspective, the proposed model examines the actual decisions and behaviors of individuals in financial matters. Method: The research methodology is applied and post-event in nature. This study adopts a quantitative approach. The data used in this research were collected by referring to time series statistics from the central bank, official bank websites, and the country's capital market and were utilized accordingly. The software used for data analysis in this research is Eviews. Findings: After the necessary data examination and analysis using the software, the results of this research indicate that in the first phase, the optimal portfolio was determined between currency rates, gold coins, real estate, securities, and bank deposits without imposing any penalty on long-term deposits. In this situation, individuals with different risk levels allocate 95%, 57%, and 37% of their portfolio to bank deposits, corresponding to risk-averse, moderate risk, and risk-seeking individuals, respectively. In the second phase, by imposing a penalty equal to 10% of the deposit profit, the optimal basket was determined; even in this case, these three groups of individuals with different risks allocate 88%, 53%, and 36% of their capital to bank deposits, respectively. Conclusion: It is observed that this decreasing trend in bank deposits continues until the penalty rate equals 25% of the bank deposit rate, beyond which no individual with any level of risk is willing to deposit in the bank.

Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach

The transmission of monetary policy through the interest rate mechanism has been thoroughly discussed in economic literature for quite some time. The traditional view is that, the change in real interest rate influences the cost of capital. The change in cost of capital affects the magnitude of investment and consumption and therefore the level of, real income and prices [Mishkin (1995)].1 Operationally the State bank of Pakistan, influences the yield on treasury bills (T-bills). This is done on the assumption that the yield on treasury bills influences other interest rates like the Money Market rate (Call money rate), banks’ deposit and banks’ Lending rates. The change in these rates influences the cost of capital and thus level of investment and consumption in the economy. Given this, the central bank can influence the yield on T-bills to influence the level of real income and the level of prices. The foregoing explanation of the monetary transmission mechanism makes it clear that if the changes in yield on the T-Bill rate are not passed on to the Call money rate and the bank deposit and the Lending rate then it becomes difficult for the central bank to use the channels that involve interest rate, for influencing the level of output and prices. Hence it is important to test whether the changes in the treasury bill rate are passed on to money market rate, bank deposit rate and the bank lending rate and if yes at what speed and to what extent. Therefore this study examines the pass-through of the changes in Treasury bill rate to Call Money rate, Banks’ deposit rate and Banks’ Lending rate.

Firm behaviour under negative deposit rates

Using rich microdata from Denmark, the first country in the world to move its key monetary-policy rate below zero, we find that firms which become exposed to negative interest rates on their bank deposits increase their fixed investments and employment to a larger extent than what can be explained by the associated reduction in the level of interest rates. They also tend to rebalance their liquid portfolio, reduce their degree of leverage and become more inclined to change bank connections. Our results also indicate that it is the event of becoming exposed to negative rates (the extensive margin), not the share of deposits exposed to negative interest rates (the intensive margin), that matters for firm behaviour. These findings support the existence of a corporate channel of monetary transmission when bank deposit rates cross zero and become negative.

Do Islamic banks bear displaced commercial risk? Evidence from Indonesia

The market share of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia is small despite the fact that Indonesia is a predominantly Muslim country. This paper investigates the asymmetric effect of the deposit rate of conventional banks on Islamic bank deposits in Indonesia applying a dual banking system. This study employs the Non-linear ARDL (NARDL), using monthly data and covering 2009:M1–2019:M7. The findings clearly confirm the long-run relationship between the Islamic deposit and conventional deposit rate for any maturity. Furthermore, the impact of conventional bank deposit rate is asymmetry on Islamic bank deposit for any maturity, implying that Islamic bank deposits react differently to up and down in conventional bank deposit rates, but it tends to weaken for longer maturity. More interestingly, based on asymmetric results, Islamic bank deposits adjust at a higher speed to an increase in conventional deposit rates compared to a rise in the Islamic deposit rates. The results imply that Islamic bank depositors may transfer their funds to conventional bank deposits as conventional bank deposit rates rise in a dual banking environment known as displaced commercial risk (DCR). AcknowledgmentsThis work was funded by the Centre for Economic Studies, Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia under Grant Number: 164.a/Dir.PPE/VI/2020.

The Role of Financial Structural Factors in Retail Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Sri Lanka

This paper examines the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission. It assesses the impact of banking structural factors on commercial bank pricing decisions and their pass-through in Sri Lanka. The empirical analysis uses aggregate monthly interest rates data from January 2008 to December 2018, a total of 132 observations. The findings suggest that the interest rate pass-through is significant overall, but incomplete. The credit quality, operational efficiency and excess liquidity play essential roles in explaining the adjustments of the bank lending and deposit rates. Non-performing loans increase the lending rate, and this result is robust to different combinations of the control variables. This suggests that banks with higher proportions of non-performing loans attempt to pass their credit losses on to customers. Further, bank inefficiency is passed on to customers in the form of lower deposit rates and excess liquidity in the banking system, both of which have a negative effect on the interest rate adjustments of both lending and deposit rates. A puzzling negative relationship is observed between the lending rate and operational inefficiency. The findings of this paper support the claim that banks in Sri Lanka take into consideration their structural factors as well as the monetary policy rates when setting the lending and deposit rates.

Quadruple wavelet coherence and pairwise cointegration: comparative time-frequency analysis of bank deposit rate

PurposeThis study aims to attempt to understand the joint co-movement of bank deposit rate and its main underlying determinants (foreign exchange rate (FX) rate, cross-currency swap rate and implied forward rate). The authors also compare time and frequency variant approaches in this dynamic.Design/methodology/approachThe authors examine bank deposit rates where multiple variables jointly interact, and the integration is time and frequency variant. The study applies both cointegration and wavelet coherence methods and conducts a comparative analysis. It investigates eight markets over 2005–2020 aiming to capture the impact of changing market conditions and degree of development.FindingsThe results are in line with cross-country interdependence, where we observe more robust evidence for co-movement during adverse economic conditions with higher correlation compared to other periods such as the 2007–2009 US mortgage crises, 2010–2012 Euro crises and 2019 pandemic. Moreover, wavelet analysis suggests deposit rate lags FX rate and leads cross-country swap rate. The USA arguably leads the co-movement accompanied briefly by Japan and followed closely by other developed markets and later the developing markets. Heat maps suggest clustering of countries.Practical implicationsThe wavelet coherence's ability to indicate the periods and the frequencies of the relationship is essential to capture the true nature of the relationship. Such additional insight would enable the practitioners to determine the true price of the deposit rate.Originality/valueThe study captures the long suggested collective nature of three main underlying determinants of bank deposit. The results shed light on the order of dynamics in a complex bank deposit environment. Comparative analysis further highlights the valuable insight quadruple wavelet coherence provides.

Dependency of Islamic bank rates on conventional rates in a dual banking system: A trade-off between religious and economic fundamentals

The dependence of Islamic bank rates on the conventional bank rate violates the religiosity principle and the fundamentals of an efficient market due to the possibility of arbitrage profit from the rate differences. This study tests such dependency in a dual banking system by considering monthly data from January 2009 to April 2018 on Malaysian banks using several ARDL tests, supplemented by robustness tests using a 12-month correlation of the rolling standard deviation and causality models based on the Toda-Yamamoto approach to investigate the short- and long-run dependency of rates. The study finds that Malaysia's Islamic bank deposit and financing rates are influenced by both the conventional and Bank Negara Malaysia's policy rates. Results imply that Islamic banks do serve profit-driven customers. We suggest that Islamic banks are forced to benchmark their rates to conventional rates because of the trade-off between religious and economic fundamentals by profit-driven customers. The study demonstrates that the question of Islamic legitimacy of Islamic banks needs to be addressed considering the correct profiling of the customer-base and the regulatory environment in which Islamic banks operate. We discuss implications for Islamic rate-setting behavior in the presence of monetary shocks in a dual banking system.

Lower reversal limit of the European Central Bank deposit rate and sustainability of traditional banking business model

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present an empirical analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit rate dynamics during 2014–2020, attempting to answer how deep could be cut further this rate without causing persistent yield curve inversions (YCI), i.e. lower yields for longer terms. It addresses the sustainability of the traditional banking and shows that inverted yield curves would require changing the banking-as-usual model to the government-guaranteed long-term-borrowing coupled with short-term-lending. This research poses the question of whether the banking sector should become a public utility.Design/methodology/approachThe future scenarios of negative interest rate (NIR) behavior are modeled seeking to increase the understanding of NIR environment. Using an event-study design, empirical analyses of the ECB deposit rate cuts on the Euro Over-Night Index Average rates is performed at different maturities.FindingsThis study finds that, starting from the lower limit of 80 basis points below zero, the ECB deposit rate is likely to result in complete YCIs.Social implicationsThis paper evidences that moving rates into a more negative territory is likely to be completely counterproductive for banking industry, implying that banking at such conditions would become heavily dependent on governmental support. The results shed light on the interdependence of the banking business, financial monetary policy and welfare of the society, providing policymakers with empirically defined milestones for policy implementations.Originality/valueThis paper clarifies the impact of the ECB deposit rate on the overall shape of yield curves. The novelty of this research resides in investigation of YCI by simulating NIR dynamics.

Application of Difference-in-Difference Strategies in Finance: The Case of Natural Disasters and Bank Responses

Natural disasters are negative shocks that can severely disrupt the communities in which they occur. Disasters like hurricanes, tornados, floods, wildfires, and earthquakes, moreover, can cause severe property damage, including damages to homes, businesses, and automobiles. An important issue that arises is whether branches of banks in communities affected by natural disasters raise deposit rates to attract additional deposits in response to any deposit withdrawals and to meet any increase in loan demand for the rebuilding that takes place. Studies of the responses of banks to natural disasters increasingly find it useful to rely on a difference-in-differences (DID) identification strategy. The contribution of our paper is to examine how different choices that can be made affect the empirical results. Importantly, as our empirical results indicate, the discretion that a researcher uses in terms of the choices made at different stages do indeed produce different conclusions about the impact of natural disasters on bank deposit rates. If we do not match branches affected by natural disasters with those in adjacent communities not affected the results indicate that natural disasters have a statistically negative effect on deposit rates without matching and with a low degree of matching. However, when we use a medium or a high degree of matching there is no statistically significant effect. Moreover, when we use two different matching methods, the results differ. In the case of PSM, we find a statistically significant effect, but no effect in the case of CEM.

Financial repression and financial risk: the case of China

ABSTRACT Despite more than three decades of economic reform, China’s financial repression still remains. Implicit state guarantees continue to be widespread while government interventions are pervasive in almost all economic activities, from determination of bank lending and deposit rates to selective allocation of credit and initial public offering quotas, as well as having majority control of large financial institutions. These financial distortions come with costs which have become heavier over time, particularly after 2008. This paper attempts to provide an integrated perspective in examining how financial repression in China has led to economic imbalances that elevate financial risk, particularly in the midst of ongoing US-China trade tussle and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Bank Characteristics Effect on Capital Structure: Evidence from PMG and CS-ARDL

The main aim of this paper was to investigate the impact of bank characteristics on capital structure empirically. The study employed a panel data analysis, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) estimators were utilized, for the period spans between the years 2008 and 2018. Both the borrowing (leverage) ratio and equity ratio used in the analysis cover short-term deposits and long-term deposits as a fundamental determinant variable on the capital structure. The main findings confirm that the deposit ratio has a positive relationship with the size of the bank. In other words, big banks use more foreign sources than small banks to use the tax shield advantage. At the same time, a percentage increase in bank size and liquidity ratio enhance the bank deposit rate by 0.0068% and 0.479%, respectively, in the long-run, while a percentage change in interest income coverage will reduce the bank deposit rate by 0.004% in the long-run. Meanwhile, the significant causal relationship of growth rate with the bank deposit rate could not be established. In addition, the short-run coefficients of the variables reveal that size, interest coverage, and liquidity have a positive and significant causal relationship with bank deposit rate in the short-run. The findings of the study are in line with the results of capital structure theories, especially the hierarchy theory and balancing theory.

Do stocks outperform bank deposits in China?

This paper investigates whether stocks outperform risk-free assets in the US and China in terms of buy-and-hold returns over different horizons. We find that stock returns underperform the one-month bank deposit rate in the Chinese market, consistent with the finding of Bessembinder (2018) that the returns to the majority of common stocks are less than one-month Treasuries. The paper explores the important role of positive skewness in the distribution of individual stock returns, attributable to skewness in monthly returns. These results further emphasize the importance of portfolio diversification in the Chinese market.

Rising Wealth Inequality: Intergenerational Links, Entrepreneurship, and the Decline in Interest Rate

The share of wealth held by the top one percent of Americans has increased from about 24% in 1980 to 40% in 2010. This paper examines the potential role played by three factors in accounting for this increase - decline in the corporate tax rates, increase in the income risk, and the decline in the world interest rates. Our model consists of altruistic households who either run a business or work for others. Entrepreneurial households enjoy high returns due to high productivity while worker households' savings earn the bank deposit rate that is determined in a competitive banking sector and equals the rate of return on foreign bonds. We find that entrepreneurship and intergenerational links via altruism are important factors generating a wealth distribution that mimics the data in the 2000s. However, it is the decline in the interest rate that plays a major role in accounting for the increase in the U.S. wealth inequality since the 1980s. In our model, the decline in the interest rate increases wealth inequality as it affects the two types of households differently. Entrepreneurial households benefit from lower financing costs and increase their investments while worker households face lower returns to their savings as the interest rate declines. Other changes such as the changes in taxation and income risk play a less significant role.

Seeking excess returns under a posted price mechanism: Evidence from a peer‐to‐peer lending market

AbstractThis study examines the performance of a new online peer‐to‐peer (P2P) lending platform in China that relies on non‐expert individuals to screen for loans. Using the bank deposit rate as a benchmark, positive excess returns exist under the posted price mechanism, which indicates that P2P markets provide lenders with adequate profit opportunities to compensate for investment risks. Moreover, we find that loans with higher excess returns are more likely to be funded and are bid on more quickly than other loans. Finally, voluntarily disclosed soft information in the listing's description plays a significant moderating role in the lenders’ decision‐making process. Borrowers who promise to repay on time are more likely to be funded and to be funded faster, but those who claim economic hardship have a lower probability of being funded. Our results provide evidence that lenders have the ability to seek excess returns in P2P lending markets and highlight that aggregating the views of peers can improve the market efficiency.

The determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in Indonesia banking industries

This study aims to examine the determinants of idiosyncratic volatility. This study uses firm fundamentals, institutional ownership, interest rates as idiosyncratic volatility determinants. The firm fundamentals of this study are represented by firm size, profitability, operating performances, dividend policy, and price to earnings ratio. Institutional ownership represents the ownership of the company’s shares by financial companies. The interest rates are represented by 3-month bank deposit rates for one year. The research method uses a quantitative approach with secondary data. Hypothesis examining is conducted by panel data regression analysis. By using a purposive sampling method, the company selected is 24 banking sector companies with observation time from 2012 up to 2018. Thus, the total sample in this research amounted to 168 firm-year. The result of the study suggests that firm size, price-earnings ratio, dividend policy, profitability, and interest rates are negatively associated with idiosyncratic volatility. However, operating performance and institutional ownership are not associated with idiosyncratic volatility. JEL Classification: E43, G21, G32 How to Cite: Firmansyah, A., Sihombing, P., & Kusumastuti, S. Y. (2020). The determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in Indonesia banking industries. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 24 (2), 175-188. DOI : https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v24i2.3851

The relationships between time deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium on the time deposit rates of banks in the dual banking system in Malaysia.Design/methodology/approachThe data consists of 1-, 6- and 12-month average time deposit rates of conventional and Islamic banks over the period of January 2000 to June 2017. The cointegration methodologies are used to explore links between the time deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium. The causality tests to test causality linkages between pairs of variables are also applied. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition based on the error correction model is conducted to analyse the impact of variables variation on the deposit rates.FindingsThe results show the presence of two cointegration vectors in the deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic bank rates. Causality tests reveal that deposit rates are caused by inflation and risk premium in a one-way causality. The results of variance decomposition highlight the importance of inflation and risk premium in explaining the variations in the bank deposit rates. For the conventional bank, inflation shocks play the most important role in explaining the movements of the deposit rates. In Islamic banks, the major determinant’s largest influence is the risk premium. Between the two bank rates, Islamic bank rates receive more influence from the explanatory variables in the long-run compared to conventional bank rates. The real rates have no noticeable effect on the variance of time deposit rates for both banks.Originality/valueThis study presents new evidence on the relationship between time deposit rates and the three explanatory variables, which are the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. The dual banking system allows exploring the similarities and differences between conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia in terms of the linkages between the variables.