DURING the current depression, many studies have been made concerning the action of general business during periods of depression and the subsequent recoveries. Practically all of these studies have had two common characteristics. Most of them have shown the differences between various depressions, and practically all of them have made very complete use of the extremely valuable tool hindsight. When studying a business depression and the subsequent recovery and the corresponding movement of stock prices, it is not difficult to look back on the upturn and feel sure that the low point has been passed, but it is extremely difficult to determine at the time whether an upturn is a false start which will be followed by further declines or whether it represents the beginning of real recovery. It is the purpose of this study to examine certain factors, the action and relationship of which have shown amazing similarity at the bottom of depressions, and to derive from this similarity certain indications and evidence which would have been useful during past depressions in differentiating between false starts and the actual beginning of cyclical recovery. Obviously, it is dangerous to expect the future to follow exactly the pattern of the past. Nevertheless, forecasting is necessary in investment and business operations, and the evidence of the past presented in this study may be helpful in formulating such a forecast when the assistance of hindsight is not available. Further, this study shows the relationship between business activity and the movement of security prices and indicates, as might be expected, that the stock market anticipates the course of business activity. The study covers the period from I878 to the present, during which time there were nine recoveries from major depressions. The characteristics of each recovery have been analyzed in detail and the results presented. The evidence that a cyclical upturn in business activity had begun was provided in each of these depressions by a certain definite relationship among three significant measures of business. THREE MEASURES OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY The variables used in this study are commodity prices, business activity, and bank clearings. The movement of commodity prices has been measured by Mr. Carl Snyder's Wholesale Commodity Price Index from I875 to I9I3, and from the latter year to the present time by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Wholesale Commodity Price Index. Business activity has been measured by the American Telephone and Telegraph Company's Index from I878 to I924 and by the Annalist Index of Business Activity from the year I929 to the present. Clearings have been measured by the Clearings Index of Business compiled by Mr. Carl Snyder. The American Telephone and Telegraph index is primarily a measure of productive activity. Prior to April I922, it included bank clearings and debits to individual accounts, but since that time these series have been dropped.' The clearings index gives another picture of business activity and the volume of trade. In the United States, according to Snyder's estimate, 8o per cent or more of all kinds of payments in the exchange of goods, property, and services are made by means of bank checks. This process of payment is peculiarly sensitive to changes in every phase of business and reflects the whole trade of the country and weights it automatically according to the pecuniary importance of the factors involved.2 Since I9I9, the index has been based upon debits to individual accounts, an accurate index of payments by bank checks. Prior to that time, the compilation of checks going through the country's clearing houses was used. Bank debits are larger than