Baltoro Glacier Research Articles

A reassessment of ice cliff dynamics upon debris-covered glaciers

Abstract We present a new model for understanding ice cliff dynamics within a debris-covered glacier ablation zone. This simple energy-balance model incorporates a moving frame of reference, made necessary by the melt of the surrounding debris-covered ice. In so doing, this also formalises how different types of field measurements can be utilised and compared. Our predictions include showing: ice cliffs can endogenously select their own slope angles; that there should be an indifference between illuminated north- and south-facing ice cliff slopes; that ice cliffs grow steeper with thicker debris layers; that ice cliffs cannot stably exist below a certain critical debris thickness and that some modelling of ice cliffs (when not incorporating the moving frame) may incorrectly estimate ice mass losses. All of our results are produced using parametrisations from Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram.

Velocity variations and hydrological drainage at Baltoro Glacier, Pakistan

Abstract. Glacial meltwater directly influences glacier dynamics. However, in the case of debris-covered glaciers, the drivers of glacier velocity and the influence of supraglacial lakes have not yet been sufficiently analysed and understood. We present a spatio-temporal analysis of key glacier characteristics for Baltoro Glacier in the Karakoram from October 2016 to September 2022 based on Earth observation data and climate parameters extracted from the High Asia Refined analysis (HAR) data set. For the glacier variables, we used surface velocity, supraglacial lake extent, melt of snow and ice, and proglacial run-off index. For climate variables, we focused on air temperature and precipitation. The surface velocity of Baltoro Glacier was characterized by a spring speed-up, summer peak, and fall speed-up with a relative increase in summer of 0.2–0.3 m d−1 (75 %–100 %) in relation to winter velocities, triggered by the onset of or an increase in basal sliding. Snow and ice melt have the largest impact on the spring speed-up, summer velocity peak, and the transition from inefficient to efficient subglacial drainage. The melt covered up to 64 % (353 km2) of the entirety (debris-covered and debris-free) of Baltoro Glacier and reached up to 4700 m a.s.l. during the first melt peak and up to 5600 m a.s.l. during summer. The temporal delay between the initial peak of seasonal melt and the first relative velocity maximum decreases downglacier. Drainage from supraglacial lakes (3.6–5.9 km2) contributed to the fall speed-up, which showed a 0.1–0.2 m d−1 (20 %–30 %) lower magnitude compared to the summer velocity peak. Most of the run-off can be attributed to the melt of snow and ice. However, from mid-June onward, the lakes play an increasing role, even though their contribution is estimated to be only about half of that of the melt. The observed increase in summer air temperatures leads to a greater extent of melt, as well as to a rise in the number and total area of supraglacial lakes. This tendency is expected to intensify in a future warming climate.

Seasonal Evolution of Supraglacial Lakes on Baltoro Glacier From 2016 to 2020

The existence of supraglacial lakes influences debris-covered glaciers in two ways. The absorption of solar radiation in the water leads to a higher ice ablation, and water draining through the glacier to its bed leads to a higher velocity. Rising air temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns provoke an increase in the supraglacial lakes in number and total area. However, the seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes and thus their potential for influencing mass balance and ice dynamics have not yet been sufficiently analyzed. We present a summertime series of supraglacial lake evolution on Baltoro Glacier in the Karakoram from 2016 to 2020. The dense time series is enabled by a multi-sensor and multi-temporal approach based on optical (Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR; Sentinel-1 and TerraSAR-X) remote sensing data. The mapping of the seasonal lake evolution uses a semi-automatic approach, which includes a random forest classifier applied separately to each sensor. A combination of linear regression and the Hausdorff distance is used to harmonize between SAR- and optical-derived lake areas, producing consistent and internally robust time series dynamics. Seasonal variations in the lake area are linked with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) based on air temperature and precipitation data derived from the climate reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land. The largest aggregated lake area was found in 2018 with 5.783 km2, followed by 2019 with 4.703 km2, and 2020 with 4.606 km2. The years 2016 and 2017 showed the smallest areas with 3.606 and 3.653 km2, respectively. Our data suggest that warmer spring seasons (April–May) with higher precipitation rates lead to increased formation of supraglacial lakes. The time series decomposition shows a linear increase in the lake area of 11.12 ± 9.57% per year. Although the five-year observation period is too short to derive a significant trend, the tendency for a possible increase in the supraglacial lake area is in line with the pronounced positive anomalies of the SPI and STI during the observation period.

Modeling the feedbacks between surface ablation and morphological variations on debris-covered Baltoro Glacier in the central Karakoram

Recent studies show that many debris-covered glaciers exhibit high-magnitude differential thinning despite the presence of supraglacial debris. Existing studies have not adequately explored the variability in surface ablation, morphology, and related feedback mechanisms that incorporate topographically controlled surface irradiance and debris transport. In this study, we address these issues using a radiation-driven surface ablation model that more fully characterizes ablation dynamics by accounting for temporally-linked radiative forcing, surface geomorphological evolution and gravitational debris flux. Simulation results based on Baltoro Glacier in the central Karakoram indicate the following: 1) A debris-covered glacier can exhibit high spatial variability in surface ablation due to heterogeneous debris thickness and debris transport. A bare-ice glacier given similar initial conditions, has higher overall ablation but exhibits much less variability. 2) The topographic influence on surface ablation is non-negligible because glacier-surface topography controls irradiance and gravitational debris flux. The overall ablation on a debris-covered glacier tends to increase in response to high-frequency topographic variations due to the larger area with thin debris cover. In contrast, a bare-ice glacier exhibits decreased overall ablation in response to high-frequency topographic variations due to its high sensitivity to topographic shading. 3) Gravity-driven surface debris flux plays an important role in local debris thickness redistribution, which regulates ablation rates over the ablation season. 4) Surface ablation dynamics on a debris-covered glacier is regulated by active system couplings and feedbacks between surface morphology, melt and debris transport. Consequently, certain locations on a debris-covered glacier may be more sensitive to radiative forcing than previously thought. Simulation results suggest that nonlinear feedback responses may permit debris-covered glacier subsystems to be very sensitive to radiative forcing, thereby causing significant morphological changes to the glacier surface.

Understanding Complex Debris-Covered Glaciers: Concepts, Issues, and Research Directions

Understanding the climate-glacier dynamics of debris-covered glaciers is notoriously difficult given a multitude of controlling factors and feedback mechanisms involving climate forcing, debris-load properties, supraglacial water bodies, and multi-scale topographic effects. Recent studies have provided insights into controlling factors, and have reported the presence of anomalies that contradict the general consensus of the protective influence of debris loads on ablation dynamics. Nevertheless, numerous processes that regulate glacier dynamics at various spatial and temporal scales have not been adequately accounted for in statistical and numerical modeling studies. Furthermore, important feedbacks involving ablation, topography, irradiance, gravitational debris flux, and supraglacial ponding are often neglected or oversimplified in existing models, which poses a challenge to our understanding of conflicting field observations such as the accelerated mass loss of many Himalayan glaciers, and glacier-subsystem responses (ice-flow, debris flux, surface morphology, and supraglacial water bodies) to climate forcing. This paper provides insights into the complexity of debris-covered glacier systems by addressing concepts and issues associated with forcing factors and glacial processes, and highlights the importance of understanding system couplings and feedbacks. Specifically, we review recent studies on debris-covered glaciers and utilize simulation results based on the Baltoro Glacier in the central Karakoram to discuss important concepts and issues. Our results demonstrate that climate forcing, the properties and transport of debris, topography and supraglacial water bodies are the key controlling factors in a debris-covered glacier system, and that their coupled effects and positive feedbacks may increase the ice loss of a debris-covered glacier. We also recommend new research directions for future studies.

Adjustment of glacier geometries to future equilibrium line altitudes in the Shigar River Basin of Karakoram Range, Pakistan

Pakistan’s Karakoram region has a large variety of glacier types. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of alpine or valley glaciers represents mass balance. Field observations for estimation of ELA of the majority of Karakoram’s glaciers are not available due to rugged glacier-covered terrains and lack of climatic data above 5000 masl. Therefore, we applied the hypsometrically controlled accumulation area ratio (AAR) and accumulation area balance ratio (AABR) methods for ELA estimation and glacier–climate reconstructions in the Shigar River Basin of the Karakoram region. Constrained by mountain topography, larger size and type of glaciers, several ranges of ELA are calculated and implemented for several ratios. Two parameters (ratio and interval) are provided to calculate AAR-ELAs between 0.4 and 0.8 with 0.05 interval and AABR-ELAs between 0.9 and 4.4 with 0.01 interval. By providing constant AAR (rather than constant glacier area), this approach adjusted glacier geometries (area) to future ELA variations. For constant AAR of 0.4–0.45, a 90-m ELA decrease from 5769 to 5679 m of Baltoro glacier adjusted its geometries by reducing ~ 5% area. The highest decrease of 140-m ELA of the same glacier is reported for constant AAR of 0.7–0.75, revealing a significant loss of 8% geometries. The projected geometry losses for all these glaciers are highly variable, with top-heavy glaciers (Biafo and Baltoro) projected to experience the major losses in glacier-ice area. It is concluded that the quality of ELAs is highly dependent on the reconstructed three-dimensional glacier surfaces.

Glacial Lakes Mapping Using Multi Satellite PlanetScope Imagery and Deep Learning

Glacial lakes mapping using satellite remote sensing data are important for studying the effects of climate change as well as for the mitigation and risk assessment of a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). The 3U cubesat constellation of Planet Labs offers the capability of imaging the whole Earth landmass everyday at 3–4 m spatial resolution. The higher spatial, as well as temporal resolution of PlanetScope imagery in comparison with Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2, makes it a valuable data source for monitoring the glacial lakes. Therefore, this paper explores the potential of the PlanetScope imagery for glacial lakes mapping with a focus on the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKKH) region. Though the revisit time of the PlanetScope imagery is short, courtesy of 130+ small satellites, this imagery contains only four bands and the imaging sensors in these small satellites exhibit varying spectral responses as well as lower dynamic range. Furthermore, the presence of cast shadows in the mountainous regions and varying spectral signature of the water pixels due to differences in composition, turbidity and depth makes it challenging to automatically and reliably extract surface water in PlanetScope imagery. Keeping in view these challenges, this work uses state of the art deep learning models for pixel-wise classification of PlanetScope imagery into the water and background pixels and compares the results with Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers. The deep learning model is based on the popular U-Net architecture. We evaluate U-Net architecture similar to the original U-Net as well as a U-Net with a pre-trained EfficientNet backbone. In order to train the deep neural network, ground truth data are generated by manual digitization of the surface water in PlanetScope imagery with the aid of Very High Resolution Satellite (VHRS) imagery. The created dataset consists of more than 5000 water bodies having an area of approx. 71km2 in eight different sites in the HKKH region. The evaluation of the test data show that the U-Net with EfficientNet backbone achieved the highest F1 Score of 0.936. A visual comparison with the existing glacial lake inventories is then performed over the Baltoro glacier in the Karakoram range. The results show that the deep learning model detected significantly more lakes than the existing inventories, which have been derived from Landsat OLI imagery. The trained model is further evaluated on the time series PlanetScope imagery of two glacial lakes, which have resulted in an outburst flood. The output of the U-Net is also compared with the GLakeMap data. The results show that the higher spatial and temporal resolution of PlanetScope imagery is a significant advantage in the context of glacial lakes mapping and monitoring.

Rates of rockwall slope erosion in the upper Bhagirathi catchment, Garhwal Himalaya

ABSTRACTRockwall slope erosion is defined for the upper Bhagirathi catchment using cosmogenic Beryllium‐10 (10Be) concentrations in sediment from medial moraines on Gangotri glacier. Beryllium‐10 concentrations range from 1.1 ± 0.2 to 2.7 ± 0.3 × 104 at/g SiO2, yielding rockwall slope erosion rates from 2.4 ± 0.4 to 6.9 ± 1.9 mm/a. Slope erosion rates are likely to have varied over space and time and responded to shifts in climate, geomorphic and/or tectonic regime throughout the late Quaternary. Geomorphic and sedimentological analyses confirm that the moraines are predominately composed of rockfall and avalanche debris mobilized from steep relief rockwall slopes via periglacial weathering processes. The glacial rockwall slope erosion affects sediment flux and storage of snow and ice at the catchment head on diurnal to millennial timescales, and more broadly influences catchment configuration and relief, glacier dynamics and microclimates. The slope erosion rates exceed the averaged catchment‐wide and exhumation rates of Bhagirathi and the Garhwal region on geomorphic timescales (103−105 years), supporting the view that erosion at the headwaters can outpace the wider catchment. The 10Be concentrations of medial moraine sediment for the upper Bhagirathi catchment and the catchments of Chhota Shigri in Lahul, northern India and Baltoro glacier in Central Karakoram, Pakistan show a tentative relationship between 10Be concentration and precipitation. As such there is more rapid glacial rockwall slope erosion in the monsoon‐influenced Lesser and Greater Himalaya compared to the semi‐arid interior of the orogen. Rockwall slope erosion in the three study areas, and more broadly across the northwest Himalaya is likely governed by individual catchment dynamics that vary across space and time. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impacts of Climate and Supraglacial Lakes on the Surface Velocity of Baltoro Glacier from 1992 to 2017

The Baltoro Glacier is one of the largest glaciers in the Karakoram mountain range. Long-term monitoring of glacier dynamics provides key information on glacier evolution in a changing climate, which is essential for regional water resource and natural hazard management. On large glaciers, detailed field based mass balance is not feasible. Ice dynamic variations quantify changes in mass transport and possibly the influence of environmental parameters on the evolution of the glacier. Although velocity variations of Baltoro Glacier during winter and summer are linked to seasonally enhanced basal sliding, little is known about differences in timing and magnitude of (intra-)seasonal velocity variations and their determining mechanisms. We present time series of annual, seasonal, and intra-seasonal glacier surface velocities by means of intensity offset tracking applied on multi-mission Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for a period of 25 years from 1992 to 2017. Supraglacial lakes forming on the downstream glacier surface in summer were mapped from 1991 to 2017 based on the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), calculated from multi-spectral Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) imagery. Additionally, precipitation data of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and temperature data of ERA-Interim were used to derive the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) from 1998 to 2017. Linking surface velocities to the SPI confirmed a strong correlation between heavy precipitation events in winter and the magnitude and the timing of glacier acceleration in summer. Downstream extensions of summer acceleration that have been found since 2015 may be explained by additional water draining from an increased number of supraglacial lakes through crevasses that have been formed in consequence of higher initial velocities, evoked by strong winter precipitation. The warmer melt seasons observed in the years 2015 to 2017 additionally affects the formation of a supraglacial lake, so stronger summer acceleration events in recent years may be indirectly related to global warming.

The secret life of ice sails

ABSTRACTWe present the first dedicated study into the phenomenon of ice sails. These are clean ice structures that protrude from the surface of a small number of debris-covered glaciers and can grow to heights of over 25 m. We draw together what is known about them from the academic/exploration literature and then analyse imagery. We show here that ice sails can develop by one of two mechanisms, both of which require clean ice to become surrounded by debris-covered ice, where the debris layer is shallow enough for the ice beneath it to melt faster than the clean ice. Once formed, ice sails can persist for decades, in an apparently steady state, before debris layer thickening eventually causes a reversal in the relative melt rates and the ice sails decay to merge back with the surrounding glacier surface. We support our image-based analysis with a surface energy-balance model and show that it compares well with available observations from Baltoro Glacier in the Karakoram. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed and confirms the results from our empirical study that ice sails require a relatively high evaporative heat flux and/or a relatively low sensible heat flux in order to exist.

Temporal variations in supraglacial debris distribution on Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram between 2001 and 2012

Distribution of supraglacial debris in a glacier system varies spatially and temporally due to differing rates of debris input, transport and deposition. Supraglacial debris distribution governs the thickness of a supraglacial debris layer, an important control on the amount of ablation that occurs under such a debris layer. Characterising supraglacial debris layer thickness on a glacier is therefore key to calculating ablation across a glacier surface. The spatial pattern of debris thickness on Baltoro Glacier has previously been calculated for one discrete point in time (2004) using satellite thermal data and an empirically based relationship between supraglacial debris layer thickness and debris surface temperature identified in the field. Here, the same empirically based relationship was applied to two further datasets (2001, 2012) to calculate debris layer thickness across Baltoro Glacier for three discrete points over an 11-year period (2001, 2004, 2012). Surface velocity and sediment flux were also calculated, as well as debris thickness change between periods. Using these outputs, alongside geomorphological maps of Baltoro Glacier produced for 2001, 2004 and 2012, spatiotemporal changes in debris distribution for a sub-decadal timescale were investigated. Sediment flux remained constant throughout the 11-year period. The greatest changes in debris thickness occurred along medial moraines, the locations of mass movement deposition and areas of interaction between tributary glaciers and the main glacier tongue. The study confirms the occurrence of spatiotemporal changes in supraglacial debris layer thickness on sub-decadal timescales, independent of variation in surface velocity. Instead, variation in rates of debris distribution are primarily attributed to frequency and magnitude of mass movement events over decadal timescales, with climate, regional uplift and erosion rates expected to control debris inputs over centurial to millennial timescales. Inclusion of such spatiotemporal variations in debris thickness in distributed surface energy balance models would increase the accuracy of calculated ablation, leading to a more accurate simulation of glacier mass balance through time, and greater precision in quantification of the response of debris-covered glaciers to climatic change.

Discriminative Features Based on Two Layers Sparse Learning for Glacier Area Classification Using SAR Intensity Imagery

Accurate and instant information about changes of snow and glaciers covered areas plays a vital role in hydrological and climatological research and implications. Among all the observation methods, spaceborne remote sensing has a great advantage in monitoring the glaciers located in cold high-altitude regions and inaccessible areas on a large scale. Unlike optical sensors, the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensor can obtain images with low limitations in terms of weather phenomena and illumination as some glaciers frequently located in cloudy regions. In this paper, we propose a multiclasses classification method for large area glacier using spaceborne single-polarimetric SAR intensity image. The proposed method takes advantage of the discrimination ability of sparse representations of features, based on which a linear classifier called supervised neighborhood embedding is constructed. Finally, we develop a gradient descent method to alternatively update the dictionary and projection matrix. Two study areas are chosen to represent the discriminative characteristics of glaciers. In the Taku glacier in Alaska, compared to the state-of-the-art methods, our proposed method achieved a suitable performance with the overall classification accuracy of ${\text{90.34}}\%$ , and especially for bare ice of ${\text{91.38}}\%$ . In the Baltoro glacier in Karakoram characterized by high-relief topography and thick debris cover, the overall accuracy of ${\text{72.63}}\%$ and debris accuracy of $\text{90.14}\%$ are obtained.

Diversity and Assembling Processes of Bacterial Communities in Cryoconite Holes of a Karakoram Glacier.

Cryoconite holes are small ponds that form on the surface of glaciers that contain a dark debris, the cryoconite, at the bottom and host active ecological communities. Differences in the structure of bacterial communities have been documented among Arctic and mountain glaciers, and among glaciers in different areas of the world. In this study, we investigated the structure of bacterial communities of cryoconite holes of Baltoro Glacier, a large (62km in length and 524km2 of surface) glacier of the Karakoram, by high-throughput sequencing of the V5-V6 hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene. We found that Betaproteobacteria dominated bacterial communities, with large abundance of genera Polaromonas, probably thanks to itshighly versatile metabolism, and Limnohabitans, which may have been favoured by the presence of supraglacial lakes in the area where cryoconite holes were sampled. Variation in bacterial communities among different sampling areas of the glacier couldbe explained by divergent selective processes driven by variation in environmental conditions, particularly pH, which was the only environmental variable that significantly affected the structure of bacterial communities. This variability may be due to both temporal and spatial patterns of variation in environmental conditions.

Changes in glacier surface cover on Baltoro glacier, Karakoram, north Pakistan, 2001–2012

ABSTRACTThe presence of supraglacial debris on glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram affects the ablation rate of these glaciers and their response to climatic change. To understand how supraglacial debris distribution and associated surface features vary spatially and temporally, geomorphological mapping was undertaken on Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram, for three time-separated images between 2001–2012. Debris is supplied to the glacier system through frequent but small landslides at the glacier margin that form lateral and medial moraines and less frequent but higher volume rockfall events which are more lobate and often discontinuous in form. Debris on the glacier surface is identified as a series of distinct lithological units which merge downglacier of the convergence area between the Godwin-Austen and Baltoro South tributary glaciers. Debris distribution varies as a result of complex interaction between tributary glaciers and the main glacier tongue, complicated further by surge events on some tributary glaciers. Glacier flow dynamics mainly controls the evolution of a supraglacial debris layer. Identifying such spatial variability in debris rock type and temporal variability in debris distribution has implications for glacier ablation rate, affecting glacier surface energy balance. Accordingly, spatial and temporal variation in supraglacial debris should be considered when determining mass balance for these glaciers through time.

Recent variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier in the central Karakoram Himalaya and its possible teleconnections with the pacific decadal oscillation

This study discusses the formation and variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro glacier system in the central Karakoram Himalaya during the last four decades. We mapped supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier from 1978 to 2014 using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM + and LCDM images. Most of the glacial lakes were formed or expanded during the late 1970s–2008. After 2008, the total number and the area of glacial lakes were found to be lesser compared to previous years. We tried to find any teleconnections exists between the glacial lake changes in this region and the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which entered its prolonged warm regime in the late 1970s and again to its cold regime in 2008, based on observational investigation. The decrease in the number and area of the supraglacial lakes after 2008 is hypothesised to be linked with the recent cold phase of PDO.

New atmospheric composition observations in the Karakorum region: Influence of local emissions and large-scale circulation during a summer field campaign

In this work we provide an overview of short lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and carbon dioxide variability in the Karakorum, by presenting results deriving from a field campaign carried out at Askole (3015 m a.s.l., Pakistan Northern Areas), by Baltoro glacier. By using an innovative embedded and transportable system, continuous measurements of aerosol particle number concentration (Np, 1571 ± 2670 cm−3), surface ozone (O3, 31.7 ± 10.4 nmol/mol), carbon dioxide (CO2, 394.3 ± 6.9 μmol/mol) and meteorological parameters have been performed from August 20th to November 10th 2012. The domestic combustion from the Askole village emerged as a possible systematic source of contamination in the valley, with short-lasting pollution events probably related to domestic cooking activities characterized by high values of Np (6066 ± 5903 cm−3). By excluding these local contamination events, mountain thermal wind regime dominated the diurnal variability of Np, O3 and CO2. In comparison to night-time, we observed higher Np (+354 cm−3) and O3 (+7 nmol/mol) but lower CO2 (−8 μmol/mol) in air-masses coming from the lower valley during the central part of the day. Part of the day-to-day atmospheric composition variability can be also ascribed to synoptic circulation variability, as observed by using HYSPLIT 5-day back-trajectories.

High-resolution interactive modelling of the mountain glacier–atmosphere interface: an application over the Karakoram

Abstract. The traditional approach to simulations of alpine glacier mass balance (MB) has been one-way, or offline, thus precluding feedbacks from changing glacier surface conditions on the atmospheric forcing. In addition, alpine glaciers have been only simply, if at all, represented in atmospheric models to date. Here, we extend a recently presented, novel technique for simulating glacier–atmosphere interactions without the need for statistical downscaling, through the use of a coupled high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric and physically-based climatic mass balance (CMB) modelling system that includes glacier CMB feedbacks to the atmosphere. We compare the model results over the Karakoram region of the northwestern Himalaya with remote sensing data for the ablation season of 2004 as well as with in situ glaciological and meteorological measurements from the Baltoro glacier. We find that interactive coupling has a localized but appreciable impact on the near-surface meteorological forcing data and that incorporation of CMB processes improves the simulation of variables such as land surface temperature and snow albedo. Furthermore, including feedbacks from the glacier model has a non-negligible effect on simulated CMB, reducing modelled ablation, on average, by 0.1 m w.e. (−6.0%) to a total of −1.5 m w.e. between 25 June–31 August 2004. The interactively coupled model shows promise as a new, multi-scale tool for explicitly resolving atmospheric-CMB processes of mountain glaciers at the basin scale.

Integration of classification tree analyses and spatial metrics to assess changes in supraglacial lakes in the Karakoram Himalaya

Alpine glacier responses to climate change reveal increases in significant retreat with corresponding increases in the production of glacier meltwater and development of supraglacial lakes. The rate of occurrence and spatial extent of lakes in the Himalaya are difficult to determine because current spectral-based image analyses of glacier surfaces are limited through anisotropic reflectance and lack of high-quality digital elevation models (DEMs). Additionally, the limitations of multivariate classification algorithms to classify glacier features in satellite imagery have led to an increased interest in non-parametric methods, such as classification and regression trees. This article demonstrates the utility of a semi-automated approach that integrates classification tree-based image segmentation and spatial metrics in an object-oriented analysis to differentiate supraglacial lakes from glacier debris, ice, ice-cliffs, and lateral and medial moraines. We used 2000 and 2004 Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) visible and near-infrared (VNIR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) imagery to characterize and assess supraglacial conditions on the Baltoro Glacier in the Karakoram Himalaya. Input variables for the image segmentation include ASTER VNIR and SWIR spectral bands, indices (e.g. normalized difference water index (NDWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and normalized difference snow index (NDSI)), image band ratios (e.g. NIR/red, middle infrared (MIR)/green, and MIR/red), and DEM derivatives. Classification tree analysis was used to generate initial image segments and it was particularly effective in differentiating water from ice and other glacier surface features. The object-oriented analysis included the use of Boolean logic and squared pixel (SqP) spatial metric to refine the classification tree output. The results of classification tree-based image segmentation show that NDWI is the most important single variable for characterizing glacier surface features followed by NDVI, NIR/red ratio, and green and red spectral bands. Lake features extracted from both images show that there were 131 lakes in 2000 as compared to 157 lakes in 2004. In general, there was a significant increase in the planimetric area of these lakes from 2000 to 2004, and we documented the formation of 26 new lakes. It appears that lake-size increments occur mostly in the lower part of the ablation zone, whereas most of the new lakes are formed in the upper part of the ablation zone. The classification tree outputs are intuitive and the data-derived thresholds eliminate commonly subjective visual determination of such threshold values used in image segmentation. The results of this study show that glacier lakes in high-mountain environments can be characterized without topographic information, which is difficult to obtain from a DEM. Also, the semi-automated method described in this article can potentially eliminate the often laborious visual multitemporal analysis of glacier lake surface change, thereby producing consistent and replicable results needed to assess the trends of alpine glacier response to climate change in the Himalaya.

Rates of basin-wide rockwall retreat in the K2 region of the Central Karakoram defined by terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide 10Be

Basin-wide rockwall retreat rates are estimated using cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in supraglacial debris from the Baltoro Glacier basin in K2 region of the Central Karakoram, Pakistan. Total cosmogenic 10Be concentrations of the supraglacial debris were measured using accelerator mass spectrometry to determine 10Be concentrations inherited from the rockwalls within the glaciated basin. Given that rockfall induced by periglacial weathering and snow and ice avalanches is the most important source of supraglacial debris production in the high mountain glaciated basin, the erosion rate of the bare bedrock can be considered to be the rate of rockwall retreat. The rate of the rockwall erosion, converted from the calculated inheritance of 10Be concentrations, using the maximum velocity of the active glacier, places an upper limit ranging from 0.65 mm/year to 2.48 mm/year. This rate of rockwall retreat is in the same order of magnitude reported in other high Himalayan mountains. The rate, however, is an order of magnitude higher than erosion rates inferred from sediment budget studies and half that of the fluvial incision rate and exhumation rate for the same region. The difference between rates of basin-wide rockwall retreat and fluvial incision rates over the Late Quaternary suggests that in this glaciated basin fluvial incision is likely enhanced by localized/differential tectonism and/or isostatic uplift.

Glacier velocities across the central Karakoram

AbstractOptical matching of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite image pairs is used to determine the surface velocities of major glaciers across the central Karakoram. The ASTER images were acquired in 2006 and 2007, and cover a 60×120km region over Baltoro glacier, Pakistan, and areas to the north and west. The surface velocities were compared with differential global position system (GPS) data collected on Baltoro glacier in summer 2005. The ASTER measurements reveal fine details about ice dynamics in this region. For example, glaciers are found to be active over their termini even where they are very heavily debris-covered. The characteristics of several surge-type glaciers were measured, with terminus advances of several hundred meters per year and the displacement of trunk glaciers as surge glaciers pushed into them. This study is the first synthesis of glacier velocities across this region, and provides a baseline against which both past and future changes can be compared.