Ballot Proposals Research Articles

Switzerland: Political Developments and Data in 2022

AbstractIn 2022, Switzerland's notorious fame as an “island of bliss” was significantly challenged by a sequence of numerous unprecedented large‐scale crises. While the country has managed to phase out most COVID‐19 protective measures already in the year's early weeks, the 202 Russian invasion of Ukraine internationally discredited neutrality—that is, one of the traditional pillars of Swiss identity. This article traces how Switzerland muddled through crisis after crisis. Moreover, it shows how domestic politics was affected by the distinct interconnectedness of the federal and regional (i.e., cantonal) electoral arenas, an above‐average number of direct‐democratic ballot proposals, as well as by the resignation of two out of seven members of the Federal Council. The article concludes by discussing two major and highly controversial “elephant‐in‐the‐room” issues that are continuing to shape the Swiss political discourse: Swiss–EU relations and institutional reforms to gear up Swiss‐style consensus democracy for future crises.

Googling Referendum Campaigns: Analyzing Online Search Patterns Regarding Swiss Direct-Democratic Votes

In direct democracies, voters are faced with considerable information demands. Although search engines are an important gateway to political information, it is still unclear what role they play in citizens’ information behavior regarding referendum campaigns. Moreover, few studies have examined the search terms that citizens use when searching for political information and the potential “user-input biases” in this regard. Therefore, we investigate to what extent citizens search online for information about upcoming referendums and what differences emerge between proponents, opponents, and non-voters regarding the search terms they used and the results they visited, related to three national ballot proposals voted on in Switzerland on November 28, 2021. The study combines cross-sectional survey data with longitudinal digital trace data containing participants’ Google Search histories obtained through data donations. Our findings show that participants rarely used Google to search for information about upcoming referendums. Moreover, most ballot-related searches employed rather neutral search terms. Nevertheless, a qualitative analysis of the search terms points to differences between different voting groups, particularly for the most prominent proposal around a Covid-19 law. The study provides interesting insight into how citizens search for information online during national referendum campaigns.

Renewable energy requirements on the ballot: An analysis of county-level voting results

National polling data consistently find a large, bipartisan group of Americans support state renewable portfolio standards (RPS), policies which mandate generation of electricity from renewable sources. However, when such policies are actually put before voters on the ballot, they have been met with mixed success: out of seven RPS ballot initiatives, only four have been approved. From a newly compiled dataset of county-level voting results, we use ordinary least-squares regression to investigate the determinants of public support for RPS ballot proposals. Two models are constructed based on literature related to legislative adoption of RPS and, separately, public support of pro-renewable policies. Consistent with previous studies, political, economic, and demographic variables are found to be significant in predicting voter behavior. State-level fixed effects, however, are the largest contributors to both models. A synthesis model, combining elements from both the legislative adoption and public acceptance literatures, performs best when fixed effects are removed. As climate advocates increasingly call for policies to more quickly transition the electricity sector to renewable energy sources, this research provides greater insight into the prospects of successfully achieving that aim through a ballot initiative. It also, however, reveals insights applicable to legislature-driven RPS policies.

Does Money Always Matter? Campaign Spending in Michigan State Ballot Proposal Elections

ABSTRACT This article explores the role of money in Michigan statewide ballot proposals from 1978 to 2015. Of particular concern is how spending patterns in ballot proposal campaigns compare to candidate-centered campaigns. Ballot proposal campaigns do not experience many of the influences that are associated with candidate campaigns. For example, there is no incumbency advantage in fundraising, or name recognition to help voters decide, and little or no political party involvement such as a party label on the ballot or party mobilization of voters. In the period investigated, we found that: ballot proposal campaign spending has skyrocketed; spending is greater with controversial ballot proposals; more money in Michigan ballot proposal campaigns was spent by those supporting a proposal than opposing a proposal beginning in the 2000s while the opposite was true before; and, although it does not guarantee a victory, money can have a meaningful effect when spent strategically.

Ask and Ye Shall Receive? Automated Text Mining of Michigan Capital Facility Finance Bond Election Proposals to Identify Which Topics Are Associated with Bond Passage and Voter Turnout.

The purpose of this study is to bring together recent innovations in the research literature around school district capital facility finance, municipal bond elections, statistical models of conditional time-varying outcomes, and data mining algorithms for automated text mining of election ballot proposals to examine the factors that influence the probability of school districts in the state of Michigan passing or failing capital facility finance bond elections from 1998– 2014. Automated text mining is a data mining technique that identifies latent topics from a corpus of documents. We used an unsupervised correlated topic model to analyze the full text wording of all 1,210 school district capital facility bond election ballot proposals in Michigan over 16 years. The model identified 9 different latent topics across the bonds, including requests to purchase new buildings, renovations, and athletic facilities. Interestingly, equipment purchases appear to be a distinct category of bond proposal topics. We then examined the independent effect of the bond topics on the probability of passing the bond and voter turnout using modeling techniques and control variables from the recent literature. Bonds that focused exclusively on athletic facilities were 4.35 times less likely to pass than bonds that request new construction or omnibus ballot proposals. This work extends previous research to show that capital facility bond proposals that pass the most often include all facility needs in a single ballot proposal, are the first attempt at the polls, are at the top of the ballot, and request lower amounts of spending.

Aging Populations and Physician Aid in Dying: The Evolution of State Government Policy

As state governments respond to the needs of their aging populations, an issue of particular concern is health care at the end of life. With the many advances in public health and medical treatment—as well as in education, wealth, and other socioeconomic metrics—Americans are living much longer lives. But many Americans also face prolonged illness at the end of life that can result in great suffering. Often the suffering can be relieved with good palliative care, but for some Americans continued life becomes intolerable. As a result, there has been increased interest in a right for terminally ill individuals to hasten the dying process by taking a lethal dose of prescription medication (i.e., by “physician aid in dying,” commonly described as “physicianassisted suicide”). The existence of such a right has been litigated in the U.S. Supreme Court and state supreme courts, debated in state legislatures, and addressed in ballot proposals at the state level. Voters in Oregon and Washington have legalized aid in dying by public referendum, legislators in Vermont have done so by statutory enactment, and justices in Montana and a trial court in New

Voting Decisions at US Mutual Funds: How Investors Really Use Proxy Advisers

Voting Decisions at US Mutual Funds: How Investors Really Use Proxy Advisers

Economics and Policy Preferences: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals

Abstract Using California ballot proposition returns and exogenous shifts to labor demand, we provide the first large-scale causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on policy preferences. Consistent with economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find evidence of a need for cognitive consistency in voting behavior as economic shocks have a smaller significant impact on voting on noneconomic ballot issues. While we also demonstrate that positive shocks decrease turnout, we present evidence that our results reflect changes in the electorate's preferences and not simply to its composition.

Bypassing the Representational Filter? Minority Rights Policies under Direct Democracy Institutions in the U.S. States

AbstractOne common critique of direct democracy posits that minority rights are endangered by institutions like ballot initiatives and referenda. Empirical research testing this claim, however, has produced conflicting results that leave the question of direct democracy's effect on minority rights open to debate. This study extends previous research by providing a more direct test of this criticism—it compares anti-minority policy proposals from direct democracy states to similar proposals from states without direct democracy institutions. The author examines both ballot proposals and traditional legislative bills to account for both the direct and indirect effects of direct democracy. Analyzing anti-minority proposals from all 50 states from 1995 to 2004 shows that direct democracy states are more likely to pass these proposals than states without direct democracy institutions.

Less Can Be More: Conflicting Ballot Proposals and the Highest Vote Rule

Abstract This paper examines conflicting ballot proposals—two or more measures that run contrary to one another and that citizens vote on in the same election. Sometimes a majority votes in favor of more than one conflicting proposal, generating a legal impasse that courts resolve by applying the “highest vote rule.” The rule upholds the proposal that received the greatest number of affirmative votes and invalidates all competing proposals, even though they also garnered majority support. Using spatial models, we show that the proposal receiving the most votes is not systematically closest to the median voter’s ideal point, and consequently the rule can generate antimajoritarian outcomes. We discuss the implications of our finding, analyze and reject existing alternatives to the highest vote rule, and propose an original solution to the problem.

Voting on the environment: Price or ideology? Evidence from Swiss referendums

Studies on preferences for environmental quality usually posit that price and income explain most of the observed choices. Incorporating recent advances in the economics of non-selfish behavior into the traditional public choice approach, we argue that the willingness to contribute to public goods as well as social norms need to be taken into account when analyzing environmental voting outcomes. We study aggregate results of three ballot proposals in Switzerland put to vote in the year 2000 which foresaw different tax schemes on fossil energy. Our main results show that the aggregate level choice pattern is to be explained by income as well as structural attributes that make costs and benefits of the projects vary. More importantly, our results underline the importance of including variables pertaining to the notion of ideology, both in terms of statistical fit and obtaining unbiased estimates for price and income determinants.

Economics and Ideology: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals

There is a large literature demonstrating that positive economic conditions increase support for incumbent candidates, but little understanding of how economic conditions affect preferences for parties and for particulars of their platforms. We ask how exogenous shifts to the value of residents' human capital affect voting behavior in California neighborhoods. As predicted by economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find that conservative voting on a wide variety of ballot propositions--from crime to gambling to campaign finance--is increasing in economic well being. We further show that positive economic circumstances decrease turnout and have a mixed impact on candidate choice, highlighting a limitation of inferring policy preferences from party choice.

Faster Horses, Older Whiskey, and More Money: An Analysis of Religious Influence on Referenda Voting

This note replicates a previous study to determine the extent religion influences voting behavior. It focuses on ballot measures that involve moral issues and considers other factors as well. A multiple regression uses the percentage of voters favoring five ballot proposals as the dependent variable, with socioeconomic status, rural isolation, liquor consumption, and three categories of religion as independent variables. The analysis revealed that the religion variables were significant and negatively associated with voting for most proposals that liberalized drinking and betting. Socioeconomic status and liquor consumption were significant in most cases and were positively linked to votes cast for the proposals.

Initiatives and the New Single Subject Rule

Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and PolicyVol. 1, No. 1 Original PapersInitiatives and the New Single Subject RuleDaniel H. LowensteinDaniel H. LowensteinSearch for more papers by this authorPublished Online:6 Jul 2004https://doi.org/10.1089/153312902753300051AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB Permissions & CitationsPermissionsDownload CitationsTrack CitationsAdd to favorites Back To Publication ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited byOmnibus Legislation in Germany: A Widespread Yet Understudied Lawmaking Practice28 May 2021Does Law Matter? Theory and Evidence from Single-Subject AdjudicationThe Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 40, No. 2Has Direct Democracy Created Constitutional Dilettantes Out of Voters? A Reassessment of When Voters Use Cues in Initiative ElectionsSSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 40Aggressive Enforcement of the Single Subject Rule John G. Matsusaka and Richard L. Hasen20 December 2010 | Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, Vol. 9, No. 4Aggressive Enforcement of the Single Subject RuleSSRN Electronic JournalConflicts Over PowersLess Can Be More: Conflicting Ballot Proposals and the Highest Vote RuleThe Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 38, No. 2 Volume 1Issue 1Mar 2002 To cite this article:Daniel H. Lowenstein.Initiatives and the New Single Subject Rule.Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy.Mar 2002.35-48.http://doi.org/10.1089/153312902753300051Published in Volume: 1 Issue 1: July 6, 2004PDF download