Balance Of Payments Equilibrium Research Articles

Monetary policy framework in Sri Lanka and its impact on the financial sector: A review

Monetary policy is a prominent stabilization mechanism often used to accomplish price and economic stability in a country. The success of monetary policy depends on the operating economic environment, the institutional framework adopted, and the choice and mix of the instruments used. The aim of this paper was to review the evolution of the monetary policy framework in Sri Lanka and its impact on the financial sector. The review is important, and monetary policy is intended to impact aggregate spending in the economy to contribute to the goals of full employment, price stability, sustainable economic growth, and balance of payments equilibrium. The paper reviewed more than twenty-five research and review papers using a thematic approach. The paper explains the historical evolution of monetary policy regimes in Sri Lanka and the reasons for adopting various monetary and exchange rate policy regimes from time to time. The review considers national and international studies on monetary policy regimes and their impact on the financial system. The paper concludes that the Currency Board could not influence the money supply in any way, and until the adoption of open economy policies in 1977 under the fixed exchange rate regimes, the Central Bank had no control over domestic inflation. The review also identifies that flexible inflation targeting is the international best practice of Central Banking, and flexible inflation targeting enables the maintenance of low inflation, thereby helping economies achieve a high and stable growth path. However, it emphasizes that it should be maintained sustainably subject to several conditions through government intervention.

The Effects of Monetary Policy on the Contributions of Banks’ Lending to Economic Performance in Nigeria

Monetary policy typically focused on economic performance, price stability, and external balance (Balance of Payments Equilibrium), among other things. The study's goal is to look at how banks contribute to Nigeria's economic performance through lending. The study used an econometric method to examine the impacts of monetary policy on bank lending contributions to economic performance, using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), unit root test, and regression analysis as estimation techniques. Broad money supply, monetary policy rate, prime lending rate, and inflation rate were used as monetary policy indicators, whereas real gross domestic product was used as an economic performance metric. The information utilized came from the Nigerian Central Bank's Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics. Statistical evidence from the result regression outcome revealed that banks’ lending, money supply, monetary policy rate have positive contributions to economic performance in Nigeria while inflation rate contributed positively but insignificant to economic performance in Nigeria during the studied period. The result findings further strengthen and accommodate more investment and lucrative projects into the economy which on the long run will provide job creation, reduce unemployment, reduce poverty level and contribute to the economic development of Nigeria if put onto use. The study therefore concluded that monetary policy has positive contributions to banks’ lending towards Nigeria economic performance. It was recommended that the CBN needs to supervise thoroughly the banks’ activities to enable them comply with all the legal regulatory frameworks and monetary policies. Not that alone, the design of monetary policy and its implementation should be made in such a way that the conflict of target is avoided.

O quarteto impossível em um modelo supermultiplicador de crescimento liderado pela demanda para uma pequena economia aberta

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run sustainability of a growth path led by multiple non-creating capacity autonomous expenditures in a demand led-supermultiplier model for a small open economy. Using two different models the results show that it is impossible to have in the same model long-term economic growth driven by the non-capacity creating component of domestic demand, exogenous income distribution, long-run balance between productive capacity and aggregate demand and balance of payments equilibrium. Economic viability of the balanced-growth path demands growth to be led by exports, at least for small open economies.

A Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model for a Small Commodity Exporting Country: Argentina Between 1971 and 2016

ABSTRACT We study the balance of payments (BOP) as a constraint on economic growth, focusing on Argentina’s economy between 1971 and 2016. The data show that Thirlwall’s balance-of-payments-constrained growth model cannot explain Argentina’s average growth during this period, which witnessed high growth in the terms of trade. We expand Thirlwall’s model based on recent empirical indications that exporters set their prices in foreign currencies. Thus, we show new ways in which the terms of trade and real exchange rate impact the growth rate compatible with the BOP equilibrium. While prices affect the growth rate compatible with the BOP equilibrium mainly through changes in the original model’s quantities, the proposed extension finds a stronger direct effect of the terms of trade. Through the extended model, we find that the weak and strong tests of Thirlwall’s Law are not rejected. Further, we show the consistency of the results regardless of the assumed country size or presence of structural economic breaks. Consequently, we argue that prior literature was inconclusive for Argentina as it did not consider invoicing of international trade in foreign currency, thus disregarding the full effect of the terms of trade and real exchange rate on growth compatible with the BOP equilibrium.

The PRC's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model

We explain China's remarkable growth performance over the last three decades through an export-led growth (ELG) model, where countries need to export to pay for their imports. We show that China's actual long-run growth rate is well approximated by its balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth rate, defined as the long-run growth rate consistent with current account equilibrium. This growth rate is given by the ratio of the growth rate of exports to the income elasticity of imports. We estimate the latter using the Kalman filter, which allows us to obtain a time-varying estimate of China's BOPE growth rate. We find that the average value of China's BOPE growth rate during 1981–2016 was about 11 percent but fluctuated significantly over time and declined notably after 2007. It is estimated to be 5.9 percent in 2015. We then discuss the determinants of China's BOPE growth rate and of the income elasticity of imports, with the help of the Bayesian Model Averaging technique. The analysis highlights the role of the composition of aggregate demand as the main driving force, both for its direct effects on the income elasticity of imports, and for the indirect effects on export growth via capital accumulation, in particular fixed asset investment. Our analysis has important implications to understand China's transition to a “New Normal” of a lower growth rate and the effects of the external and internal rebalancing strategy pursued from the early 2000s.

Mudança Estrutural, Hiato Tecnológico e Capital Humano em um Modelo Norte-Sul de Crescimento com Restrição de Balanço de Pagamentos

Resumo Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar um modelo macrodinâmico Kaldoriano em que o processo de convergência ou divergência entre o Norte (desenvolvido) e o Sul (em desenvolvimento) é uma função da mudança estrutural e do hiato tecnológico. A participação da indústria na economia do Sul e o hiato tecnológico se tornaram endógenos para explicar a dinâmica do crescimento compatível com o equilíbrio no Balanço de Pagamentos. Para que ocorra o processo de catching up, há a necessidade do aumento das atividades inovativas do Sul. O modelo desenvolvido exibe equilíbrios múltiplos: um estável e outro instável. No equilíbrio estável, o Sul deve apresentar, conjuntamente, maior desenvolvimento do seu Sistema Nacional de Inovações e elevados efeitos de spillovers industriais em relação ao nível de hiato tecnológico existente.

Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Approach: Convergence Sustainability in the Region of Central and Eastern Europe

ABSTRACTThe aim of this article is to clarify the Balance-of-Payments (BOP)-constrained growth approach (Thirlwall’s Law) in relation to the convergence theories. According to Thirlwall’s Law, we determine the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate of an economy by the ratio of the income elasticities of the demand for exports and imports and the growth of foreign demand. Using Convergence Quadrants Diagram, we focused on an analysis of different phases of non-price convergence or divergence in the region of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The obtained results show that almost all countries of the CEE region grew at a higher rate than the one consistent with the BOP equilibrium. Moreover, it is proven that the convergence of the CEE region is unsustainable considering the lower ratio of income elasticities and increasing external debt.

The PRC’s Long-Run Growth through the Lens of the Export-Led Growth Model

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth rate, which provides a framework to test the ELG hypothesis, we show that the PRC’s actual long-run growth is well approximated by its BOPE growth rate. This growth rate is given by the ratio of the growth rate of exports to the income elasticity of imports. We estimate the latter using the Kalman filter, which allows us to obtain a time-varying estimate of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate. We find that the average value of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate during 1981–2016 was 11%, but it varied significantly over time and declined notably after 2007. Today, it is estimated at a much lower 5.9%. We then discuss the determinants of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate and of the income elasticity of imports, with the help of the Bayesian model averaging technique. The analysis highlights the role of the composition of aggregate demand as the main driving force, both for its direct effects on the income elasticity of imports, and for the indirect effects on export growth via capital accumulation, in particular fixed asset investment. Our analysis has important implications to understand the PRC’s transition to a “New Normal” of a lower growth rate.

Institutional Quality and Balance of Payments Equilibrium in Nigeria

Institutional Quality and Balance of Payments Equilibrium in Nigeria

Multidimensional scaling analysis of the dynamics of a country economy.

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

Acumulação de capital, restrição externa, hiato tecnológico e mudança estrutural: teoria e experiência brasileira

Os períodos de crescimento acelerado da economia brasileira do pós-guerra até a década de 1970 foram constrangidos pela restrição externa. Propomos neste artigo um modelo baseado em Kaldor, em que estabelecemos uma relação entre acumulação de capital, hiato tecnológico e restrição externa ao crescimento de longo prazo para economias periféricas. A hipótese básica do modelo é que a acumulação de capital, sob certas condições, pode contornar a restrição externa ao crescimento dessas economias desde que o esforço de acumulação seja capaz de produzir uma mudança estrutural no sentido de aumentar a participação relativa dos setores mais dinâmicos do ponto de vista tecnológico. Essa mudança estrutural irá resultar em um aumento gradual da elasticidade-renda das exportações e numa redução da elasticidade-renda das importações, aumentando assim a taxa de crescimento do produto real que é compatível com o equilíbrio de longo prazo do balanço de pagamentos. Ilustramos ao final do artigo que a economia brasileira do pós-guerra até os anos 1970 apresentou uma elevada taxa de acumulação de capital, aprofundando o processo de substituição de importações, o que na nossa interpretação contribuiu para parcialmente permitir relaxar a restrição externa ao crescimento de longo prazo.

An assessment of international liquidity and higher oil prices

Energy represents an important component of production costs and therefore, an increase in energy prices directly impacts economic productivity, unemployment, inflation, and balance of payments equilibrium – often engendering currency devaluations. Until recently, the growth in demand for conventional fuels, mainly oil and gas, has widened imbalances between demand for and supply of energy. The effects of the surge in oil prices ripple across the entire global economy resulting in a redistribution of international liquidity. The latter creates global imbalances characterized by increasing balance of payment deficits and deteriorating the terms of trade, reducing the flow of non‐energy goods and services and increasing uncertainty of future global transactions. The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the impact of higher fuel prices on global liquidity management.

Mobilidade de capitais e crescimento econômico: elementos para uma síntese teórica

Este trabalho objetiva analisar teoricamente a conexão entre abertura da conta de capitais e crescimento econômico, analisando em que medida o controle de capitais contribui para o êxito de uma política voltada para o crescimento econômico. A literatura convencional em geral descarta o controle de capitais como a melhor alternativa para garantir o crescimento equilibrado, embora admita, em casos especiais, o uso de controles quantitativos temporários para evitar crises cambiais e financeiras. O approach teórico keynesiano de crescimento econômico, fundamentado na literatura de inspiração kaldoriana dá pistas da desejabilidade de controles como estratégia para garantir crescimento equilibrado no balanço de pagamentos. A evidência empírica também dá suporte a essa alternativa. As conclusões, portanto, conduzem à importância de estratégias de controles de capitais para coadjuvar no crescimento sem restrições no balanço de pagamentos.

The Impossible Trinity: Robert Mundell's Path Breaking Contribution in the Field of Economics

Nobel Laureate Robert A Mundell has made significant contributions in the field of international macroeconomics particularly in the area of monetary and fiscal dynamics. He pointed out that in countries where monetary and fiscal policies are used to attain internal balance in the form of demand- supply equilibrium and external balance in the form of balance of payments equilibrium, monetary policy should be reserved for attaining the desired level of external balance and fiscal policy for preserving internal balance. This conclusion directly follows from what is termed as the 'Impossible Trinity' according to which there is an intrinsic incompatibility between a) perfect capital mobility, b) fixed exchange rates, and c) domestic monetary autonomy. The present paper is an attempt to explain the nuances of the path breaking concept of 'Impossible Trinity'.

Private Pension Funds in Oligopolistic Financial Markets: Some qualifications to conventional theory of financial development

The paper inquires into the efficiency of financial development policies in economies where the financial sector is based on oligopolistic commercial banking. In this case, interest rates on deposits may be set below the level required to achieve balance of payments equilibrium, so that banks are able to exact a risk free financial margin in their holdings of government bonds. Under such circumstances, banks lack incentives to place indirect debt in domestic security markets, as a means of providing long-term finance; and private capital market deepening is hindered. Pension fund privatisation, in this institutional environment, does not relieve public finances, because the government must act as issuer of last resort in order to stabilise the currency. This point is illustrated with Mexican data, and some policy measures to deal with this situation in developing economies are proposed.

Estimates of industrial country export and import demand functions: implications for 'Thirlwall's Law'

The paper presents estimates of export and import demand functions for fifteen industrial countries. To allow for common shocks use is made of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimator (SURE). These estimates are then used to construct predictions of the growth rate consistent with balance of payments equilibrium along the lines of the Thirlwall hypothesis. Regressions of actual growth rates on the predicted values indicate that the hypothesis performs better when the observations are weighted by relative GDP. It is concluded that ‘Thirlwall's Law’ is more useful for understanding the overall growth rate of the aggregate of industrial countries than cross-country growth performance.

Economic growth and the balance of payments

This paper analyzes the long-run (or steady state) behavior of the balance of payments and some related policy issues within the framework of a simple one-good, two-country growing world. It is shown that the current account need not be balanced in the steady state and its persistent imbalances are explained in terms of the basic structures of international economies. This paper also studies the policy game between national governments seeking to maximize the domestic consumption per capita in the steady state. The noncooperative equilibrium of this game is associated with the balance of payments equilibrium in the trade account. Moreover, it is shown to be the golden rule steady state, where the world consumption per capita is maximized.

The exchange rate and the trade balance

Exchange rate flexibility is commonly justified as an efficient method for adjusting the trade balance to some desirable net international capital flow. In this orthodox view, fluctuations in a country's terms of trade or its saving-investment balance would continually upset its balance of payments equilibrium if the nominal exchange rate remained rigid.

The implicit objective function of Italian macroeconomic policy: 1963:1–1980:4

Econometric estimates of policy makers' preferences can be an important source of information for ex post macroeconomic policy analysis. This paper first discusses the econometric methodology to obtain consistent estimates of the policy maker's objective function. Properties of the estimation process are derived by appropriately solving an inverse control problem. Then, Italian macroeconomic data are used to estimate the policy maker's preferences under different specifications of his objective function. The major finding is that the balance of payments equilibrium was the main target of Italian macroeconomic policy.

Intermediate Targets and Macroeconomic Policy

Throughout the 1950s and 60s the framework within which macroeconomic policy was conducted in the UK appeared to be relatively uncontentious. Government policy was designed to achieve certain economic objectives, which typically included full employment, stable prices, economic growth and balance of payments equilibrium, by appropriately setting various instruments of policy, such as tax rates and the exchange rate. The relationship between particular instruments and objectives was often disputed, and the advisability of ‘fine tuning’ was questioned, but the basic ‘instruments to objectives’ approach to policy was generally accepted.