Increase In Average Temperature Research Articles

Thermal Footprint of the Urbanization Process: Analyzing the Heat Effects of the Urbanization Index (UI) on the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) over Two Decades in Seville

Urbanization is a multifaceted process characterized by changes in urban areas through various means, such as sprawl, ribbon development, or infill and compact growth. This phenomenon changes the pattern of the local climate zone (LCZ) and significantly affects the climate, vegetation dynamics, energy consumption, water resources, and public health. This study aims to discern the impacts of changes in urban growth on the LCZ and land surface temperature (LST) over a two-decade period. A comprehensive methodology that integrates statistical analysis, data visualization, machine learning, and advanced techniques, such as remote sensing technology and geospatial analysis systems, is employed. ENVI, GEE, and GIS tools are utilized to collect, process, and monitor satellite data and imagery of temporal and spatial variations in intensive or diffuse urbanization processes from 2003 to 2023 to analyze and simulate land use and land cover (LULC) changes, urbanization index (UI), LCZ patterns, and LST changes over the years and to make overlapping maps of changes to recognize the relation between LULC, LCZ, and LST. This study focuses on Seville’s urban area, which has experienced rapid urbanization and a significant increase in average temperature during the last few decades. The findings of this study will provide actionable recommendations into the interplay between urban growth and climate and highlight the pivotal role of urban growth in shaping resilience and vulnerable areas based on microclimate changes. Urban planners can leverage these insights to predict alternatives for the future development of urban areas and define practical climate mitigation strategies.

Managed Aquifer Recharge for Sustainable Groundwater Management: New Developments, Challenges, and Future Prospects

The combined effect of climate change and increased water demand has put significant strain on groundwater resources globally. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) has become an effective approach for addressing groundwater depletion problems and sustainable management of groundwater resources. This review article provides an extensive insight into the existing knowledge of MAR, including the main objectives and applications, implementation techniques (surface spreading, sub-surface, and induced recharge) being practiced over the years, risks and challenges associated with the MAR, and the developments in the field of MAR. This review also explores the potential of MAR in the Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) region, north-eastern Italy. An average increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation and piezometric levels in the region suggest the development of a proper MAR plan to manage water resources in the decades to come. Additionally, a comparative analysis of studies published over the last 20 years, focusing on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of water resource management, is conducted to analyze the research trends in the field of MAR. The reviewed literature reveals a notable research trend towards the quantitative aspect compared to the qualitative one. This review also identifies a notable disparity in qualitative studies during the analysis of water quality parameters considered in different MAR studies. Based on this review, a prospective viewpoint to address the challenges and expand the scope of the field is presented. This calls for an optimized strategy that considers both water quality and quantity issues, along with incorporating environmental and socio-economic aspects within the framework of MAR.

Design and assessment of an adapted absorber solar air collector tailored for sustainable drying applications

The design of a relevant solar air collector (SAC) is imperative to make the drying industries self-reliant and sustainable in terms of energy. However, the literature doesn’t describe the coherent design assessment of SAC, and its viability for a drying system provided the scale-up opportunity for commercial applications. Hence, the present work was devoted to estimating the heat load for a particular drying condition, a methodological understanding of SAC design, and an investigation of the performance of the newly developed solar collector. The essential design criteria were the moisture content of fresh and intended dried items, physical attributes of items, dryer capacity, preferred drying temperature, projected drying duration, required air speed (based on dryer type), and local climate (solar radiation, ambient temperature and relative humidity). The regular semi-hexagonal shape aluminium (Al) sheet was chosen to introduce air turbulence while maximizing the surface area available for heat transfer. The regular semi-hexagonal absorber was outfitted with helical springs to generate air turbulence and augment heat transfer. A double glazing (polycarbonate) of 5 mm apart was mounted to impede radiation heat loss. Three successive days of the experimental study showed that the average temperature increases of air passing through SAC were 36.02 °C, 37 °C, and 39.2 °C. The optimal tilt angle with the horizontal surface was found to be 35° in a south-facing direction for the month of January. The highest energy efficiency was found to be 40.5 %, while the lowest was found to be 24.73 %. The sustainability index of the SAC was found to be 1.02. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that the designed SAC was capable of supplying adequate heat energy (at the minimum of 155.86 W/hr.) to meet the necessary heat load (125.82 W/hr.) for agro-products drying at the designed capacity.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Human Rabies and Identification of Predominant Risk Factors in China from 2004 to 2020.

Human rabies is a prevalent issue in China, posing a significant public health concern in the country. This study fitted the Bayesian model of separable in spatial and temporal variation and inseparable spatiotemporal variation in disease risk respectively based on Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of human rabies across 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2020. It also investigated the influence of natural and socio-environmental factors on the incidence of the disease. Within the study period, a total of 26,807 cases of human rabies were reported, with the highest risk of incidence occurring in 2007, followed by a steady annual decline to the lowest risk in 2020. Guangxi Province exhibited the highest risk, while Jilin Province had the lowest, with the southern, central, and eastern regions reporting higher risks than the northern and western areas. By 2020, most provinces such as Guangxi and Guizhou had significantly reduced their relative risk (RR) of human rabies from historical highs. However, some provinces like Hunan, Henan, and Jiangsu experienced an increase in RR compared to previous years. As the annual average temperature increases, the risk of human rabies incidence in China correspondingly rises. Conversely, with increases in the annual average daily sunshine duration, per capita disposable income of urban residents, and local government healthcare expenditures, the risk of human rabies incidence declines. We conclude that the risk of human rabies in China initially increased and then decreased annually from 2004 to 2020. Future efforts should continuously increase financial investments in rabies prevention and control, focusing particularly on Hunan, Henan, Jiangsu, and provinces characterized by higher temperatures, shorter sunshine durations, and lower economic levels.

Climate change and gastroenteritis projections in Albanian children

Abstract Background Human health can be affected by climate in direct and indirect ways. Increasing temperatures may affect ecosystems, water safety, and exposure to waterborne diseases. This is the first work in Albania aiming to demonstrate the link between gastroenteritis rate and climate in the country. This research was supported by UNICEF Albania through the WASH Global Thematic Fund, but it doesn’t necessarily represent UNICEF’s position. Methods Epidemiological surveillance reports of the period 2006-2022 were used for the yearly incidence of gastroenteritis in children 0-14 years old. Years 2020 and 2021 were not included because of pandemic confounding potential. Historic data for calculating the average summer temperatures were retrieved from timeanddate.com repository. Pearson coefficient is calculated to quantify the associations and linear regression is applied to project the increased rate in the future. Results There was a statistical association between gastroenteritis rate and summer temperatures during the study period (Pearson coefficient=0.78, p = 0.001). There was a tendency that in years with hotter summers higher incidence of gastroenteritis was reported by the health system. For each degree (Celsius) increase in the average summer day temperatures, the risk of gastroenteritis in children is expected to increase by 644/100 000 (CI 95%: 317 - 972). An excess rate of 966/100 000 is expected in the case of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change medium scenario projection of 1.5o C average temperature increase. That implies more than 4830 additional new cases every year in children 0-14 years old, attributed to climate change in the future in Albania. Conclusions The analysis demonstrated excess gastroenteritis risk may be related to higher summer temperatures observed in Albania. The expected gastroenteritis risk increase in a warmer future should be addressed by improvements in sanitation, education of parents and epidemiological intelligence. Key messages • A warmer climate is expected to affect the health by increasing the risk for diarrheic diseases. • Children will be the most at-risk population category.

Immunological resilience of a temperate catshark to a simulated marine heat wave.

Marine heatwaves (MHW) have recently been proposed as more relevant in driving population changes than the continuous increase in average temperatures associated with climate change. The causal processes underpinning MHW effects in sharks are unclear but may be linked to changes in fitness caused by physiological trade-offs that influence the immune response. Considering the scarcity of data about the immune response of sharks under anomalous warming events, the present study analyzed several fitness indices and characterized the immune response (in the blood, epigonal organ, liver, spleen, and intestine) of temperate adult small-spotted catsharks (Scyliorhinus canicula) after a 30-day exposure to a Category II MHW. The results indicated that adult small-spotted catsharks have developed coping strategies for the MHW. Specifically, among the 35 parameters investigated, only the gonad-to-body ratio (GBR) and plasma glucose showed significant increases. In contrast, igm and tumor necrosis factor receptor (tnfr) gene expression in blood cells, tnfr in the epigonal organ, and the number of monocytes significantly decreased. Although a decline in immune function in small-spotted catsharks was revealed following the MHW exposure, energy mobilization restored homeostasis and indicated a shift in energy allocation towards reproduction. Group resilience may be due to the variable tolerance of individuals, the phenotypic plasticity of cellular immunity, thermal imprinting, and/or metabolic capacity of the individuals.

Dengue Dynamics: Modelling Spread and Environmental Interactions

The objective of this study is to analyze the behavior of dengue fever in the city of La Plata during one year, considering temperature as an environmental factor, its influence on the mosquito population and the transmission of the DENV virus (which causes dengue fever, also known as dengue fever). To become aware of the magnitude of the problem in the future, and using the temperature estimated by the global warming trend, we sought to project an increase in average annual temperatures for the coming years, and thus estimate the impact on the spread of dengue fever. The Netlogo simulation tool was used to model the behavior of a mosquito population and the spread of the dengue virus through contact with the human population. Using official data from the National Meteorological Service, a scenario of spread was simulated for the period November 2022-November 2023, and the increase in temperature due to climate change was projected to simulate how it affects the spread of the virus and the mosquito population, maintaining the same trend for 2024, 2025 and 2030. It was concluded that climate change may generate an expansion in both the size of mosquito populations and their annual activity, leading to the appearance of dengue outbreaks outside the identified warmer seasons.

ПОВТОРЯЕМОСТЬ АДВЕКТИВНО-РАДИАЦИОННЫХ ТУМАНОВ НАД АПШЕРОНСКИМ ПОЛУОСТРОВОМ (АЗЕРБАЙДЖАН)

The article examines the physical and meteorological characteristics of advective-radiation fogs formed on the Apsheron Peninsula and nearby islands, including the dependence of atmospheric elements that influence the formation of fogs on the meteorological visibility range, monthly and long-term fog trends. For this purpose, the initial data of aviation meteorological stations in the water area for 1999...2022 were used. The absence of a large morphometric unit on the Apsheron Peninsula and the archipelago, surroundings by the sea, and air masses affecting the area throughout the year determine its synoptic conditions. With the help of physical-meteorological and mathematical-statistical analyses, it has been established that the bulk of advective-radiation fogs formed in the Apsheron waters are repeated in march...april. With this type of fog, it has been established that the range of meteorological visibility varies depending on wind speed and sky conditions. During the period of advective-radiation fogs, south-eastern winds are most often observed in the water area. Analyzes show that an increase in average monthly and annual air temperatures on the peninsula has recently affected the frequency of advective-radiation fogs. Studying the spatiotemporal distributions of fogs can create conditions for the effective organization of aviation work.

Measuring the extent of trees outside of forests: a nature-based solution for net zero emissions in South Asia

Abstract To reduce emissions of carbon and other greenhouse gases on a pathway that does not overshoot and keeps global average temperature increase to below the 1.5 oC target stipulated by the Paris Agreement, it shall be necessary to rely on nature-based solutions with atmospheric removals. Without activities that create removals from carbon sequestration it will not be possible to balance residual emissions. Policies that focus solely on reducing deforestation will only lower future emissions. On the other hand, activities that include regeneration or regrowth of tree biomass can be used to create net-zero emissions through carbon sequestration and atmospheric removals now. New methods demonstrated here using high resolution remote sensing and deep machine learning enable analyses of carbon stocks of individual trees outside of forests (TOF). Allometric scaling models based on tree crowns at very high spatial resolution (<0.5 m) can map carbon stocks across large landscapes with millions of trees outside of forests. In addition to carbon removals, these landscapes are also important to livelihoods for millions of rural farmers and most TOF activities have the capacity to bring more countries into climate mitigation while also providing adaptation benefits. Here were present a multi-resolution, multi-sensor method that provides a way to measure carbon at the individual tree level in TOF landscapes in India. The results of this analysis show the effectiveness of mapping trees outside of forest across a range of satellite data resolution from 0.5 m to 10 m and for measuring carbon across large landscapes at the individual tree scale.

Projected changes of thermal, rainfall and drought indices in Morocco from high resolution climate models

Abstract Over the past decade, global changes in temperature, average and extreme precipitation have been observed many times. The increase in temperature or even the change in precipitation systems is directly affect extreme weather events, for example, heat waves, heavy rainfall, storms, and droughts are becoming more frequent and more powerful worldwide due to climate change caused by several factors including human activity. This is why there is a necessity to monitor future changes in climate extremes. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the future changes in thermal and rainfall extremes projected by the four climate models over time horizon 2041-2060 relative to the 1981-2010 reference period, based on the 5 climate indices, including Tmm, Tx90p, WSDI, PRCPTOT and SPI. The projections are given under the RCP 4.5 medium scenario. The analysis in thermal aspect shows that Morocco could experience by 2041-2060, a significant warming, has manifested by an increase in average temperature. Future changes in rainfall indices show that the spatial distribution of rainfall in Morocco could change significantly by 2041-2060 compared to the reference period 1971-2010. The four climate models agree on a decrease in annual precipitation that could affect most of the Kingdom. In the same way to dryness, the future changes of the SPI index that characterizes the drought, indicates a move to a dry climate.

Assessment of Hydrometeorological Impacts of Climate Change on Water Bodies in Northern Kazakhstan

This article examines the impact of climate change on the hydrometeorological indicators of some lakes and reservoirs in the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions. Two meteorological variables’ annual and seasonal trends at three weather stations in 1986–2023 were analyzed. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to determine the presence of a positive or negative trend in weather data and their statistical significance. Hydrometric indicators were studied using the ArcGIS 10.8 program from 1995 to 2023. The results indicate an increasing average spring air temperature, with an annual rise of 0.08–0.09 °C. A significant trend in increasing average annual precipitation was observed in Saumalkol, with a rise of 4.7 mm per year. In contrast, no significant trends were found in the annual and seasonal precipitation data for Sergeyevka. It was also found that the area of Lake Saumalkol increased by 1.6% due to a rise in annual precipitation. In contrast, the area of Lake Kopa decreased by 6.04% because of an increase in the annual average temperature.

Performance evaluation of composite phase change materials with varying expanded graphite content in a drawer-type latent heat storage tank

The poor thermal conductivity of single-component phase change materials (PCMs) significantly impacts the operational efficiency of solar combi-systems. There is still a gap in the research on the heat release behavior of composite phase change materials (CPCMs). Therefore, this study investigated the heat release behavior of a self-developed drawer-type heat storage tank by varying the content of expanded graphite (EG) in the CPCMs used in it. Simulation was carried out using COMSOL Multiphysics 6.1, followed by experimentation on a test bench. The average outflow temperature, effective energy conversion (EEC), and heat release rate were used to evaluate the performance of the tanks. Comparing the simulation with experimental results, a maximum error of 8.75 % was obtained, indicating the accuracy of the study. The results indicate that adding EG can significantly improve the thermal conductivity of CPCM, with superior heat release behavior observed when the mass fraction of EG reaches 5 %. Under similar temperatures, the average outflow temperature from a 5 % EG tank is approximately 4.4 °C higher, EEC is 84 % higher, and heat release rate is 1.63 times higher than that from an ordinary thermal tank. Under different temperatures in a 5 % EG tank, increasing by 5 °C results in an average outflow temperature increase of 4.1 °C, EEC increase by a factor of one and an increase in heat release rate by 36 %. This study provides valuable insights for subsequent research on operation strategies for solar combined systems.

Study of the feature of the temperature regime of the Mykolaiv and region in the context of the issue of climate change

Climate change is one of the most important and acute environmental problems of our time. It includes a complex of changes, such as rising ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather events. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average global temperature has risen by about 1.1°C since the late nineteenth century. Projections point to a possible increase of 1.5°C by the middle of this century unless significant measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the basis of the above, the paper analyzes trends in changes in atmospheric air temperature on the territory of risky agriculture in the South of Ukraine in the Mykolaiv region.The purpose of the study: to determine and substantiate the regularities of changes in the temperature regime of Mykolaiv and Mykolaiv region in the context of climate change.Research results. The values of temperature characteristics for the year and season in Mykolaiv and Mykolaiv region during 1991−2023 are analyzed. In Mykolaiv, about 60-67 days with a negative average daily air temperature and about 32 days with a negative maximum daily air temperature are recorded. The duration of the period with a negative minimum air temperature can be an average of 93 days per year: 64 in winter, 16 in spring and 14 in autumn. At the same time, on a large territory of the Mykolaiv region, autumn is warmer than spring. The average seasonal air temperature is 10.6°C, the average maximum temperature is 15.4°C, and the average minimum temperature is 6.4°C. In the Northern Black Sea region, both maximum and minimum temperatures in autumn are higher than in spring. The dynamics of changes in average annual temperatures in the city of Mykolaiv in the period from 1980 to 2023 are analyzed. A stable linear trend towards a gradual increase in average annual temperatures has been determined. The warmest year for this observation period is 2023, the coldest are 1985 and 1987. It is determined that the rate of increase in average temperature is 0.61°C for every ten years. Maximum temperatures are increasing at a rate of 0.0884°C per year and minimum temperatures are decreasing at a rate of 0.0136°C per year. Every year, the average annual temperature increases by approximately 0.021°С. The largest number of days accompanied by heat stress (up to 90%) is observed in July – August. Thus, changes in air temperature indicate a significant change in the temperature regime of the entire climate system of the region, and the consequences of climate change may be predominantly negative and will intensify in the future.

Long-term variation in thermal strain on the human body in the region of Siedlce

Aim of the studyAs a result of the increase in average air temperature associated with the present-day climate change, heatwaves are forecast to occur with increasing frequency. What is more, they will be longer, more intense, and potentially very dangerous for human health and life. The present work reports the day-to-day variation in air temperature and the variation of thermally characteristic days in Siedlce from 2001 to 2023.Material and methodsDay-to-day values of average and maximum air temperatures were obtained from the Siedlce Meteorological Station. The day-to-day variation in air temperature was determined across six ranges, and their frequencies in each month were calculated. Additionally, based on the maximum temperature, the number of thermally characteristic days (from cold to hot) was identified, and sequences of hot and very hot days were determined. The direction of trends in the number of hot and very hot days was also established.Results and conclusionsIn the Siedlce region, days marked by significant day-to-day temperature changes occurred on average 4.8 days per year, them being the most frequent in January (5.5 days/year) and least frequent in October (3.7 days/year). Comparing the number of hot and very hot days between the periods 2001-2012 and 2013-2023, an increase of about 6 hot days and 3 very hot days was observed. The trend coefficients for these changes were also positive, amounting to 0.43 and 0.24 days, respectively. The most frequent were sequences of hot days which were 4 to 6 days long.

Статистический анализ изменения температуры воздуха по данным многолетних наблюдений Метеорологической обсерватории имени В. А. Михельсона РГАУ – МСХА

Introduction. The purpose of the study is to assess the dynamics of changes in air temperature indicators and its impact on agronomic systems, based on long-term observations of the V. A. Mikhelson Meteorological Observatory of RSAU – MTAA. Materials and Methods. Using the Mathcad program, graphs of changes in average annual temperatures were constructed using a third-order approximation polynomial, graphs of the theoretical normal density distribution and normal temperature distribution function, as well as graphs of intra-annual temperature distribution for 30 years. Research results and Discussion. The values of the relative error of average annual temperatures were calculated, the normal distribution of average annual temperatures was checked using the Pearson criterion, after which the probability of deviation of the empirical hours falling into intervals from the theoretical hours was found. Conclusion. As a result of the research, a significant increase in average annual air temperature was established against the background of a general reduction in the duration of the cold period. Increase in temperature over the period 1961–1990 amounted to 0.9 °C, which is significantly higher than the average values for the globe. The results of the study reflect the general trend of warming in the context of global climate change and can be used to improve the forecasting of weather conditions, as well as to optimize technological processes in crop production.

The Ignored Impact of the Livestock Sector on Climate Change: An Analysis from the Perspective of International Law

Abstract Climate change stands as the paramount challenge confronting humanity in the contemporary era. Attempting to address the problem, the main sectors responsible for it have been subject to domestic or international policies and laws aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, except one: livestock. Given that animal-sourced food production contributes a large portion of GHG emissions, this Article aims to analyze the impacts that the exclusion of the livestock sector, in efforts to tackle climate change, would have on compliance with international treaties on the subject, especially the Paris Agreement. One conclusion reveals that state parties, by ignoring the sector, will violate several articles of the Agreement, which will likely lead to the failure of its main purpose of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C.

Forecast of innovative activity in key areas of energy transition technologies based on analysis of patent activity

Energy transition technologies aimed at increasing energy efficiency are a tool for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in average annual temperature. To increase the efficiency of implementation of these technologies, it is necessary to forecast innovative activity in the areas of hydrogen energy, CCUS and information technology based on taking into account key influencing factors, the contribution of sectors of the classical fuel and energy complex and the level of mutual influence of countries. Based on the analysis, a forecast was made to increase the share of the sector of international vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs) in the total number of patents in the field of hydrogen energy by 2.5% points. and an increase in the share of the national vertically integrated oil company sector in the area of CCUS technologies by 10% points. by 2027. It has been determined that the innovative activity of the electricity and coal industry sectors in energy transition technologies is most resistant to the influence of external geopolitical and infrastructural crises. The market for CCUS technologies is currently more susceptible to the effects of international cooperation than the market for hydrogen energy technologies. The authors show that a decrease in the level of international integration by 25% points. over the past 5 years has led to a decrease in innovative activity in energy transition technologies by 15% points. In order to identify international barriers to the introduction of technologies, the authors provide a comparative analysis of the level of mutual influence of countries within the framework of international economic associations using the examples of the SCO, BRICS, and MERCOSUR. The highest level of mutual influence was identified within the framework of SCO interaction. According to the analysis, the entry of new countries into BRICS in 2024 will lead to a decrease in the integral level of innovation activity by 30% points. from the current value and strength of mutual influence of countries by 50% points. Taking into account the identified positive relationship between revenue and innovative activity in the area of information technology, it is recommended to direct investments primarily in favor of Industry 4.0 solutions.

An exploratory study of cervical disc degeneration model and mechanism of acupuncture therapy in rabbits

Acupuncture is an important therapy method in traditional Chinese medicine for treating intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD), offering a wide range of applications. It is based on the theory of Chinese veterinary medicine and combines the stage of the disease course and individual differences for syndrome differentiation and treatment. However, there are few studies on the acupuncture treatment of cervical disc degeneration (CDD) in rabbits. Treatment based on syndrome differentiation is the basic principle of Chinese veterinary treatment. The selection of acupoints for external treatment should be based on individual etiology and pathogenesis. Nevertheless, most current studies do not follow this guideline. In this study, we established the CDD model and explored the mechanism of acupuncture treatment in alleviating CDD in rabbits by selecting a group of main acupoints including cervical Jiaji, Fengchi, Tianzhu, Naohu, Dazhui, and Houxi acupoints, combined with Western medicine's understanding of the pathogenesis of cervical spondylosis, from the anti-inflammatory, analgesic, and tissue-repairing perspectives. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) confirmed the successful establishment of the rabbit CDD model. Acupuncture stimulation reduced the increase of average and maximum neck temperature due to CDD in rabbits. The acupuncture treatment relieved the spinal disc damage in the neck of the rabbit, which also decreased the expression level of pro-apoptotic factor Bax and increased the expression level of anti-apoptotic factor Bcl-2. In addition, it can alleviate the abnormal apoptosis of rabbit intervertebral disc, decrease the expression level of inflammatory factors such as TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-2, and PGE2α, and alleviate the intense inflammation and pain response caused by CDD in rabbits. In conclusion, Acupuncture treatment can slow down the CDD of rabbits by regulating the inflammatory response and abnormal apoptosis of intervertebral disc tissue.

Surface Temperature Changes and Effects on Cocoa Yield in the Top Four Cocoa Producing Countries of Africa: A Comparative Analysis

Cocoa is a leading export crop to the world market and Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon in Africa, accounts for about 70% of the global supply. However, increasing global warming with attendant high ambient temperature had affected yields in the tropical regions of Africa. The data of 61 years (1961 – 2021), area harvested (ha), yield (kg/ha) and temperature (OC) were sourced from the database of Food and Agricultural Organisation Corporate Statistical (FAOSTAT). Least squares regression and correlation analysis models were used for data analysis. Results showed that mean ambient temperature in Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon have increased by 0.7661, 0.7507, 0.7333 and 0.6400 OC for a total of 51, 51, 50 and 49 years respectively, while mean decreases were 0.1541, 0.1693, 0.1710, 0.1392oC for 10, 10, 11 and 12 years respectively. Annual average temperature increase was highest (0.0243oC) in Cote D’Ivoire with regression coefficient (R2) of 0.7232 and least (0.0200oC) in Nigeria at R2 of 0.6380. However, in both countries, annual temperature decreased by 0.0012o and 0.0007o with R2 of 0.0052 and 0.0014 respectively. The mean annual temperature increase in Ghana and Cameroon were 0.023o and 0.0204o with R2 of 0.7364 and 0.6965 respectively, while the decreases were 0.0019o and -0.0011o with R2 of 0.0152 and 0.0431 respectively. The cocoa cumulative yield (kg/ha) reduced by 105.8, 90.8 and 75.0kg/ha respectively in Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon when temperature decreased, but increased by 12.5kg/ha in Nigeria during same temperature decreasing trend. In Ghana and Cameroon, cocoa annual yield was higher in the years of temperature increase, while decreased ambient temperature enhanced cocoa yield in Nigeria and Cote D’Ivoire. Hence, to enhance cocoa yield in the top four cocoa producing countries of Africa, the ambient temperatures should be controlled through the adoption of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP).

Analysis of Hydrological Changes in the Fuhe River Basin in the Context of Climate Change

Against the backdrop of global warming, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological processes is crucial for local water resource management. Variations in temperature, precipitation, and runoff at four different timescales in the Fuhe River Basin were evaluated based on observational data collected from 1960 to 2020 using the Mann–Kendall test. The findings indicated significant increases in average temperatures for the annual, flood season, and non-flood season periods, rising by 0.0197, 0.0145, and 0.0278 °C every annum, respectively (p < 0.01). Precipitation exhibited non-significant upward trends at all timescales (p > 0.1). The trend in flood season runoff was also non-significantly upward, whereas annual runoff and non-flood season runoff displayed non-significant downward trends (p > 0.1). Flood season temperature decreased with increasing altitude, exhibiting a significant Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.744 at the 0.01 level. Conversely, annual, flood, and non-flood season precipitation significantly increased with increasing altitude, with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.678 at the 0.01 level, 0.695 at the 0.01 level, and 0.558 at the 0.05 significance level, respectively. Precipitation and runoff exhibited similar trends throughout the year, increasing initially and then decreasing over time, reaching maximum values in June. Climate change is likely responsible for the hydrological alterations in the study basin. The findings of the study could provide references for water resource management decisions in the Fuhe River Basin.