Average Property Value Research Articles

Post-wildfire neighborhood change: Evidence from the 2018 Camp Fire

As the number of highly destructive wildfires grows, it is increasingly important to understand the long-term changes that occur to fire-affected places. Integrating approaches from social and biophysical science, we document two forms of neighborhood change following the 2018 Camp Fire in the United States, examining the more than 17,000 residential structures within the burn footprint. We found that mobile or motor homes, lower-value residences, and absentee owner residences had a significantly higher probability of being destroyed, providing evidence that housing stock filtering facilitated socially stratified patterns of physical damage. While the relationship between building value and destruction probability could be explained by measures of building density and distance to nearby roads, building type remained an independent predictor of structure loss that we could not fully explain by adding environmental covariates to our models. Using a geospatial machine learning technique, we then identified buildings that had been reconstructed within the burn footprint 20 months after the fire. We found that reconstructed buildings were more likely to have been owner-occupied prior to the fire and had higher average pre-fire property value, suggesting an emerging pattern of cost-burden gentrification. Our findings illustrate the importance of examining the built environment as a driver of socially uneven disaster impacts. Wildfire mitigation strategies are needed for mobile and motor home residents, renters, low-income residents, and dense neighborhoods.

Socioeconomic differences in tobacco outlet presence, density, and proximity in four cities in the Netherlands

BackgroundPrevious studies found that tobacco outlets were unevenly distributed by area socioeconomic status (SES). However, evidence from continental Europe is limited. This study aims to assess differences in tobacco outlet presence, density and proximity by area SES in the Netherlands.MethodsAll tobacco outlets in four Dutch cities (Amsterdam, and medium-sized cities Eindhoven, Haarlem, and Zwolle) were mapped between September 2019 and June 2020. We estimated associations between average property value of neighbourhoods (as an indicator of SES, grouped into quintiles) and (1) tobacco outlet presence in the neighbourhood (yes/no), (2) density (per km2), and (3) proximity to the closest outlet (in meters), using logistic and linear regression models.Results46% of neighbourhoods contained at least one tobacco outlet. Tobacco outlets were mostly situated in city centres, but the distribution of tobacco outlets varied per city due to differences in urban structures and functions. In the medium-sized cities, each quintile higher neighbourhood-SES was associated with lower tobacco outlet presence (OR:0.71, 95%CI:0.59;0.85), lower density (B:-1.20 outlets/km2, 95%CI:-2.20;-0.20) and less proximity (B:40.2 m, 95%CI 36.58;43.83). Associations were the other way around for Amsterdam (OR:1.22, 95%CI:1.05;1.40, B:3.50, 95%CI:0.81;6.20, and B:-18.45, 95%CI:-20.41;-16.49, respectively). Results were similar for most types of tobacco outlets.ConclusionIn medium-sized cities in the Netherlands, tobacco outlets were more often located in low-SES neighbourhoods than high-SES. Amsterdam presented a reverse pattern, possibly due to its unique urban structure. We discuss how licensing might contribute to reducing tobacco outlets in low-SES neighbourhoods.

Assessment of the Contribution of Environmental Attributes to Residential Property Rental Value in Abuja

The contribution of environmental attributes in residential price determination is premised on the issue relating to inefficient attributes pricing. The study analysed three environmental attributes such as structural, neighbourhood and natural attributes of the environment with a view to determining its hedonic value upon which residential property price is derived. In order to achieve the aim of the study, a sample size of 2401 was drawn out of 104166 properties using estimation method; 50% estimation rate and precision range of ±4 were adopted in estimating the sample size. The study administered two set of structured questionnaires; one to Estate Surveyor and Valuer firms to collect data on rental values (2008-2019) and second questionnaires were administered on the respondents to collect information on condition of environmental attributes using the census and simple random sampling method technique. Hedonic regression was employed to analyse the data. Environmental attributes were scored based on current condition and ratio scale was used alongside the average property value. The result revealed that neighbourhood attributes contributed between 60.3% -71.6%, natural attributes contributed between 60.3%-71.7% while structural attributes contributed between 66.8%-75.1% in determining the property values across the selected areas. The result of mixed regression analyses further revealed that environmental attributes contributed about 70.1% in determining the value of property in the selected areas. Environmental attributes such as natural and man-made water supply, road, quality wall-structure and floor, landscape, bathroom and streetlight contributed significantly in the determination of property values across the study areas. The study therefore concludes that the value of environmental amenity should be captured in the price of residential properties close to it. It is recommended that every stakeholders in the built environmental advocate for quality and even distribution of common environmental facilities that are key to development of property market in Nigeria.

A matching method for land valuation

One approach to land valuation, particularly used by accessors, is to base price estimates of target properties on comparable properties that recently sold. These properties are chosen to be close matches of the target unit and their transaction prices are used to predict the market price of the target unit. But the choice of comparables is typically not consistent and transparent. In this study, a systematic analytical procedure for choosing comparables that is easy to implement is developed. A hedonic regression using these comparables is then run and the predicted value of the target unit is the assessed value. One of the advantages of this procedure is that it should be straightforward for assessors and public finance officials to use and understand and easy to explain to residents.This approach is used to estimate land value as well as market prices (that includes the value of the structure) for single family residential properties using data from Maricopa County Arizona from 2007-2018. The best estimators obtain a median prediction accuracy error of 10% and more than 60% of these predictions have a prediction accuracy error within 10% for later years in the sample. These are within the bounds obtained by Zillow for 666 U.S. counties. Market prices are disaggregated into structure, lot, and neighborhood values. On average, these three components make up approximately 30%, 20%, and 50% of total average price. This provides for a nice “rule of thumb” for decomposing the market average property value into these three components; two of which relate to land value.

Private protection against crime and public policing: Political economy considerations

Private protection and public policing interact in combatting property crime. While private protection can be tailored to property values by owners, the level of public policing is chosen by elected officials for society as a whole. When the median voter’s property is less valuable than the average property value, the equilibrium level of public policing is excessive (too small), compared to the level that maximizes the collective welfare of property owners, when private protection and public policing are substitutes (complements); but this relationship can be reversed when offenders’ utilities are included in the social welfare function. • Private protection and public policing interact in the fight against crime. • Property owners tailor their private protection to their property value. • An elected official chooses the level of public policing for society as a whole. • The political equilibrium can produce too much or little public policing. • The ranking is also influenced by whether thieves’ payoffs are included in welfare.

Developing Real Estate Automated Valuation Models by Learning from Heterogeneous Data Sources

In this paper we propose a data acquisition methodology, and a Machine Learning solution for the partially automated evaluation of real estate properties. The novelty and importance of the approach lies in two aspects: (1) when compared to Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) as available to real estate operators, it is highly adaptive and non-parametric, and integrates diverse data sources; (2) when compared to Machine Learning literature that has addressed real estate applications, it is more directly linked to the actual business processes of appraisal companies: in this context prices that are advertised online are normally not the most relevant source of information, while an appraisal document must be proposed by an expert and approved by a validator, possibly with the help of technological tools. We describe a case study using a set of 7988 appraisal documents for residential properties in Turin, Italy. Open data were also used, including location, nearby points of interest, comparable property prices, and the Italian revenue service area code. The observed mean error as measured on an independent test set was around 21 K€, for an average property value of about 190 K€. The AVM described here can help the stakeholders in this process (experts, appraisal company) to provide a reference price to be used by the expert, to allow the appraisal company to validate their evaluations in a faster and cheaper way, to help the expert in listing a set of comparable properties, that need to be included in the appraisal document.

Tropical Vegetation and Residential Property Value: A Hedonic Pricing Analysis in Singapore

Effective urban planning depends on knowing homebuyers' preferences for neighbourhood features that provide different amenities, such as managed parks and trees. As the expansion of tropical urban areas into biodiversity hotspots is predicted to more than double by 2030, knowing homebuyers utility from different vegetation types can contribute to global biodiversity conservation strategies. We used the hedonic pricing method to estimate the economic value of managed, spontaneous and high conservation value vegetation to Singapore public housing using a mixed effects model. On average vegetation had positive effects on property selling price, accounting for 3% of the average property's value, or a total of S$179 million for all public housing apartments sold over 13 months. These effects were almost entirely driven by managed vegetation, which had positive marginal effects on price for 98.1% of properties. The estimated marginal effects of high conservation value vegetation were mostly negative (90.5%% properties), but positive for properties without much managed vegetation nearby. The estimated marginal effects of spontaneous vegetation were mixed and mostly small. To reconcile the goals of protecting high conservation value vegetation and maximising homeowner utility, new public housing developments should contain more managed vegetation but be away from high conservation value vegetation.

Subsidizing Risk: The Regressive and Counterproductive Nature of National Flood Insurance Rate Setting in Massachusetts

In order to evaluate the progressivity of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) premiums in a coastal US state that is directly exposed to the impact of climate changeinduced sea level rise, this study examines the relationship between the average NFIP premium and the average property values of NFIP insured properties in 331 Massachusetts municipalities. We utilize community level average premium to property value ratio as a measure for comparison. Findings reveal an inverse relationship between insurance premiums paid (as a percentage of property value) and total property value. The greater the average property value, the lower the average premium paid. Conversely, the lower the average property value, the greater the average premium paid. In addition, the study analyzes subsets of municipalities that had certain thresholds of total property in flood prone areas. The strength of the inverse relationship between insurance premiums paid and total property value increases when subsets of municipalities with greater total property value at-risk are analyzed independently. Results suggest current policies in setting flood insurance rates in Massachusetts result in regressive premiums and, as a result, can increase incentives for risk taking.

안전한 통학로 조성을 위한 보행자-차량간 교통사고와 학교 주변의 물리적 환경과의 연관성 연구

The purpose of this study is to explore environmental correlates of pedestrian-vehicle collisions within walkable distance from neighborhood schools in order to promote safe walking environment around schools. For this research, the total number of pedestrian-vehicle collisions occurred around each neighborhood school for 2000 through 2004 is measured as an indicator of the safety level of walking environment around schools. A negative binomial regression model is employed for spatial quantitative analysis. The result of spatial analysis indicates that sidewalk density, traffic signal density, cul-de-sac density, the number of fast-food restaurants, the number of parking lots, and the number of residential units are positively associated with pedestrian-vehicle collisions. However, it is found that the number of play grounds, the percentage of single-family housing areas, the percentage of mixed use areas, and average property value have negative association with pedestrian-vehicle collisions. These key findings of this research contribute to better understanding of the gaps in the current knowledge, for safe routes to school, regarding safe walking environment around neighborhood schools by providing new substantive knowledge regarding the significant effects of the physical environment on pedestrian-vehicle collisions.

A hedonic price analysis of the value of industrial sites

Hedonic price modelling is a widely used technique to explain the value of different types of individual property. Following the notion that areas within the city can suffer from devaluation, the question arises what factors influence the value of urban areas. In this paper, we use hedonic price analysis to answer this question for a specific type of urban area, the industrial site. We use the average property value per hectare as a representation of the value of an industrial site. A distinction is made between three types of explanatory variables: physical characteristics of the industrial site, regional economic characteristics and general economic trends. Although the overall explanatory value of our model appears to be modest compared to existing hedonic pricing studies of individual property, results show that most explanatory variables in our model have the expected coefficients and signs, indicating that this method can be applied in a meaningful way to gain insight into the valuation of urban areas.

An indicator for decline of industrial estates

PurposeUrban decline is a much‐researched topic in both urban and real estate literature. Yet, there is no generally accepted measurable indicator for decline. This paper starts to fill this void. The purpose of this paper is threefold: to better understand the process of decline of one particular urban area, industrial estates; based on that, to identify a possible indicator for decline; and to take a first step in the empirical testing of the suitability of this indicator.Design/methodology/approachBuilding on a review of the literature on definitions of urban decline, and inspired by hedonic price models, the average property value per hectare is identified as a promising indicator for urban decline. Drawing on hedonic price studies explaining the value of individual industrial property, the paper subsequently distinguishes a number of independent variables likely to influence the average property value of an urban area. The paper uses a simple OLS regression to test whether the relation between these independent variables and average property value is in line with expectations.FindingsThe analysis shows that nearly all independent variables have the expected effect on average property values of industrial estates. From this the authors conclude that constructing an indicator for decline based on the average property value of an urban area can prove fruitful to measure decline.Originality/valueThe decline of industrial estates, as a particular type of urban area, has not received much attention in the international real estate literature. Furthermore, the identification of average property value as an indicator for the decline of urban areas is new.

Land Use Impacts of Rapid Transit: A Review of the Empirical Literature

This paper attempts to consolidate the existing empirical eviden ce on the land use impacts of rail rapid transit. A framework for organizing the literature is developed based on the objects of study, analytical techniques and methodological approaches used. Thirty-seven studies are reviewed co vering transit's impacts on property values, development and vacancy rates, changes in land use types, and population and emplo yment growth. Ten recurring themes in the studies ' fin dings are highligh ted. A ccessibility to transit tends to effect an average residential property value premium of six to seven percent, but o verall land use changes are typically small and require the presence of several complementary factors, such as supportive local land use policies and existing demand for high density development.

Catastrophe-Induced Destruction and Reconstruction

This study examines the destruction caused by the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City tornado and the rebuilding process using panel data techniques. The results indicate that, within 3 years, the average property value of the damaged cohort exceeded the undamaged group. We use a unique data set that includes individual Fujita-scale damage assessments from Texas Tech University in conjunction with estimates of market value provided by the Oklahoma County Tax Assessor. We estimate the relationship between the Fujita-scale damage assessment and the monetary loss in market value. Our results suggest that the greatest opportunity to reduce monetary losses from tornado damage is for low-intensity tornadoes. Further, at damage ratings of F1 and higher, research should be directed toward life safety measures.

The Benefits and Costs of Noise Reduction

This paper attempts to measure, in a cost-benefit analysis, a stricter noise abatement programme for noise originating from roads in Israel. Using the hedonic price method for three large cities and rural area transactions, a benefit from noise reduction was found. In order to perform a social cost-benefit analysis, a measure of benefit has been derived for 1 km of road and has been compared with the cost of noise reduction under different types of road structure. The results indicate that even though benefits have largely increased when compared to past decades (e.g. 1.2% of an average urban property value per 1 decibel reduction), the decision to insulate a given road is dependent on location and road structure. This raises the normative question of a national vs. regional standard that decision makers should be aware of and such studies could be of help in this respect.

The importance of demographic analyses in state- and local-level policy evaluations: A case study analysis of property taxes in Texas, USA

The reluctance of policy-makers to incorporate detailed demographic analyses in policy analyses often means that population composition is ignored in state and local policy evaluations. This article uses standard demographic projection, standardization and rate decomposition techniques to examine the implications of changing population composition for the property tax revenue base of Texas. The authors find that if current socioeconomic differentials persist into the future, projected compositional changes in the household population of Texas will significantly impact property tax revenues. Thus revenue projections based on aggregate growth and current average property value would seriously overestimate future property tax revenues in Texas because changes in the composition of the population lead to disproportionate growth in households likely to live in lower valued housing unite. The results indicate that the continuing focus of state and local policy-makers on changes in population size alone may be ill-advised and demonstrate the increasing importance of local- and state-level demographic analysis in a period of increasing Federal devolution of service provision.

Perturbation Boundary Element Method for Heterogeneous Reservoirs: Part 2—Transient-Flow Problems

Summary This paper discusses the extension of the perturbation boundary element method (BEM) described in the companion paper (Part 1) to transient-flow problems with permeability and porosity variations. The perturbation BEM formulated in Laplace space is verified against simplified heterogeneous problems and is used to generate type curves for idealized heterogeneities. We observed that if the average property value in a drainage area was not much different from the near-well property value, heterogeneity had little effect on pressure responses.