Average Annual Demand Research Articles

Forecasting Retail Sales for Furniture and Furnishing Items through the Employment of Multiple Linear Regression and Holt–Winters Models

Global economic growth, marked by rising GDP and population, has spurred demand for essential goods including furniture. This study presents a comprehensive demand forecasting analysis for retail furniture sales in the U.S. for the next 36 months using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Holt–Winters methods. Leveraging retail sales data from 2019 to 2023, alongside key influencing factors such as furniture imports, consumer sentiment, and housing starts, we developed two predictive models. The results indicated that retail furniture sales exhibited strong seasonality and a positive trend, with the lowest forecasted demand in April 2024 (USD 9118 million) and the highest in December 2026 (USD 13,577 million). The average annual demand for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected at USD 12,122.5 million, USD 12,522.67 million, and USD 12,922.17 million, respectively, based on MLR, while Holt–Winters results are slightly more conservative. The models were compared using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metric, with the MLR model yielding a MAPE of 3.47% and the Holt–Winters model achieving a MAPE of 4.21%. The study’s findings align with global market projections and highlight the growing demand trajectory in the U.S. furniture industry, providing valuable insights for strategic decision-making and operations management.

Differential effects of climate change on average and peak demand for heating and cooling across the contiguous USA

While most electricity systems are designed to handle peak demand during summer months, long-term energy pathways consistent with deep decarbonization generally electrify building heating, thus increasing electricity demand during winter. A key question is how climate variability and change will affect peak heating and cooling demand in an electrified future. We conduct a spatially explicit analysis of trends in temperature-based proxies of electricity demand over the past 70 years. Average annual demand for heating (cooling) decreases (increases) over most of the contiguous US. However, while climate change drives robust increases in peak cooling demand, trends in peak heating demand are generally smaller and less robust. Because the distribution of temperature exhibits a long left tail, severe cold snaps dominate the extremes of thermal demand. As building heating electrifies, system operators must account for these events to ensure reliability.

An Assessment and Design of a Distributed Hybrid Energy System for Rural Electrification: The Case for Jamataka Village, Botswana

This research focuses on an assessment and design of a hybrid Photo Voltaic (PV)-wind system for rural electrification in Jamataka village, Botswana. The assessment revealed the most pressing factors for the need for reliable energy and the issues that the village community had with existing electricity sources. Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources (HOMER) software was used to perform all the hybrid system configurations, simulations, and selections. The assessment research was carried out using questionnaires and physical data collection on site. With a peak load of 27.31 kW, the annual average demand is 165.29 kWh/day. The results show that the PV/wind/battery system generates the most economic and technical benefits, as measured by the Net Present Cost (NPC). Due to the high initial expenditures on renewable energy systems, the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of the system is 65 percent higher than the present energy cost in Botswana for households and 57 percent higher for companies. The International Renewable Energy Agency’s global report of renewable energy generation costs between 2010 and 2020 revealed a significant decrease, with utility-scale solar PV costs falling by 85% and onshore wind costs falling by 56 percent. As a result, the LCOE decreases as the cost of renewable energy decreases. Subsidies for renewable energy systems, on the other hand, can significantly reduce the LCOE.

PRODUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLY FUEL IN INDONESIAN REFINERY

Worldwide crude supplies are experiencing a mod- est trend toward heavier and high sulfur content. The average annual demand growth rate for light products (gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil) is higher than that for residual fuel oil, Therefore, converting additional bot- toms into light product by either thermal or catalytic pro- cesses will be needed. Vehicles and fuels have been developed simulta- neously and nowadays vehicles demand a very sophisti- cated fuel indeed. Environmental restriction, and efforts to minimize the pollutant problem by exhaust gases are causing design and changes in cars that in turn are hav- ing some effects on fuel quality. To reduce exhaust emission by fuel combustion, the specification of gasoline and diesel oil is now stricter. Various term in the models address qualities of the re- formulated gasoline, such as benzene, total aromatics and olefin content, RVP, the T of distillation range, sul- fur content, and oxygenate contents (Table 1)18.13.16). Diesel oil specification is limited as follows: aromatics, polyaromatics, sulfur content, T and cetane number (Table 2) (19.23,26) To improve the specification of commercial gasoline into the stricter specification of reformulated gasoline, refiners are forced in install new facilities to increase the production for high-octane mogas components. For the stricter diesel oil specification in the years 2000's, over 50% by volume of the total gas oil components (ex- cept hydrocracked gas oil) must undergo improvement by hydrotreating processes in order to achieve a suitable specification. In Indonesia, there are seven refineries with total crude oil capacity of 1,063 MBCD to produce fuel oils, lube base stocks and petrochemical products. Process- ing units and fuel oil production in Indonesia's refineries are given in Table 3 and 4, respectively. The production of gasoline and diesel oil components is review in this paper. Influence of hydrocarbon composition of those fuel components on their performances is discussed. A brief discussion is offered on the impact of the changing specification of gasoline and diesel oil on the refinery configuration.

ROLE OF CATALYTIC REFORMING PROCESS FOR GASOLINE PRODUCTION IN ASEAN REFINERIES

The crude oils processed in refineries range from sweet crudes, such as Southeast Asian light Crudes, to sour crude, suck as Middle East. Far East, and Persian Gulf. For the period 1992-2005, the average annual demand growth rate for light products (gasoline, kerosene, diesel oil) is higher than residual fuel oil. These data clearly show that the need will continue for converting additional bottom into light products, by both thermal or catalytic conversions, The passage of the Clean Air Act Amendement of 1990 in the USA has forced American refineries to install new facilities to comply with stricter specifications for fuels such as gasoline and diesel oil such as Asia-Pacific, California Air Resources Board (CARB) and European Commission (EC), Various terms in the models address qualities of the gasoline blended such as benzene, total aromatics and olefm contents, RVP, the T90 of distillation range, sulphur content, and oxygenates content45, Motor gasoline is essentially a complex mixture of hydrocarbons distilling about 40°C and 220°C and consisting of compounds generally in the range C, to C2. Gasoline components can be produced by both the distillation of crude oil and the conversion of the crude oil fraction. Catalytic reforming process using bifunctional catalyst converts low octane number heavy naphthas into reformate with a high octane number. Bi-functional catalyst containing metal site (Pt, Pt/Ge) and acid site (A1,O,CI) are generally used. The balance is most important in a bifunctional reforming catalyst, and in fact it has to be different for different duties"l The end point of the naphtha feedstock is usually limited to about 185°C, partially because of increased coke deposition on the catalyst. The reforming cata- lyst exhibits a sensitivity to the conventional impurities of naphtha feed, such as: water (moisture), organic compounds of chlor, nitrogen and sulphur, and organometallic compounds (lead, copper, iron). Sintering of the metal phase becomes effective only beyond 500°C as measured by lowering of the dispersion of platinum atom condition, at the same time coke formation on the catalyst incrases tool71, The life of the catalyst will depend both on its stability and regenerability, expressed either in months or year, or in tonnage treated for unit weight of catalyst. This paper presents briefly composition of gasoline pool, specification of commercial gasoline in Indonesia as well as ASEAN refmeries, the catalyst improvements, catalyst deactivation and catalyst re- generation of the reforming process.

PRODUCTION OF UNLEADED GASOLINE IN ASEAN COUNTRIES

Worldwide crude supply is experiencing a mod- est trend towards heavier and high sulfur content. The Middle East, being traditionally the world's ma- jor oil exporting region, will continue to be the princi- pal supplier of lower quality crude's in the future", For the period 1992-2005, the average annual demand growth rate for light products ( gasoline, kero- sene, diesel oil) is higher than for residual fuel oil21, These data clearly show that the need will continue for converting additional bottom fraction into light products, by both thermal or catalytic conversions. The passage of the Clean Air Act Amendement of 1990 in the USA has forced American refineries to install new facilities to comply with stricter speci- fications for fuels such as gasoline and diesel oil such as Asia-Pacific, California Air Resources Board (CARB) and European Commission (EC) [3.4. 5). Various terms in the models address qualities and the gasoline blended such as benzene, total aromatics and olefin contents, RVP, the T90 of distillation range, sulphur content, and oxygenates content. Comparison of fue l specifications between ASEAN countries and reformulated fuels and typi- cal compositions of gasoline and gas oil components for production of commercial unleaded gasoline is included in this report.

Study on HPLC Fingerprint of Atractylodes macrocephala and Atractylodes macrocephala dispensing granules

Atractylodes macrocephala as a commonly used Chinese medicinal materials, its average annual demand is about 7000 tons. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and utilize Atractylodes macrocephala. Atractylodes macrocephala dispensing granules are widely favored by patients because of its accuracy and convenience in prescription formulation, but its quality control needs to be improved. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) can be used to separate the components of traditional Chinese medicine dispensing granules, and significantly improve the accuracy of measuring of effective component. Based on this, HPLC fingerprints of Atractylodis Macrocephalae and dispensing granules were established in this study. Taking the characteristic spectrum as the control, and evaluating the correlation of the medicinal materials and the formula granules. Analysis showed that Atractylodes macrocephala and formula granules showed 7 common characteristic peaks, presenting a good correlation. It reflected the overall appearance of multi-component of Atractylodes macrocephala and formula granules, and provided reference for quality control of Atractylodes macrocephala dispensing granules.

The Impact of Supply Disruption on the Standing Order System in the FMCG Supply Chain

Purpose: The article aims to present the impact of supply disruption on the FMCG supply chain's standing order system. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research methodology used is the inventory control system's indicators with a fixed order quantity and graphic modeling. Findings: The system with a fixed order quantity requires the determination of the average annual demand for a given good and the determination of the ordering point, which is important for the FMCG branch. Practical Implications: Delivering goods in the right place and time plays an important role in the supply chain of movable goods. Maintaining a safe level of inventory ensures an effective and smooth flow of inventories through the supply chain's links. Originality/value: This article demonstrates the system with a fixed order quantity allows you to determine the size of the average annual demand for a given good and the point of ordering. It was indicated when logistic companies should use this method.

Application of multi yield analysis approaches to reservoir system

Yield is used to characterise the capacity of a water resource. It is a fundamental water-supply planning concept, and an understanding of its attributes is critical for those who participate in water-supply issues. This study tends to carry out firm yield analysis by employing both the accumulated difference method (ADM) and reverse chronology method (RCM) in order to ascertain the minimum storage capacity required to sustain the required yield of kainji reservoir system without interruption. In applying (ADM), the inflows were accumulated and the difference calculated. The minimum inflow within the year of record was determined to be the firm yield. The yield of 30x109m3 was hypothetically chosen to determine the minimum capacity to sustain it without interruption during the period under record. Similarly the firm yield analysis was also done by employing the method of reverse chronology (RCM) to confirm the result in the accumulated difference method. This method is based on the premise that what is the minimum volume that has to be in storage at the end of the previous year plus the inflow can meet the demand during the current year. This was carried out by starting with the last year of the record and working back to the first year and the difference between the inflow and the required yield was determined. The shortages were then observed form the difference obtained; the maximum shortage was then selected as the required capacity.The firm yield was determined to be 22.7283×109m3. The minimum capacity required to sustain a yield of 30×109m3 per annum (the average annual demand) without interruption during the period under record was determined to be 7.3431×109m3. The interaction between the reservoir elements were significant considering the correlation matrix applied.

Estimation the Labor Force Replacement Demand in Ukraine, Caused by Its Outflow Due to the Age and Labor Migration

The article describes an effective approach to the anticipation of the labor force demand caused by the need to it replace (the replacement demand). The emphasis is made on estimation the outflow of workforce due to the retirement and labor migration. 
 The importance of medium-term forecasting (for 10 years) of the labor force demand, caused by the need to replace the workers flowing out of the labor market as a whole and separate occupational or qualification groups in particular is justified in the Ukraine’s context. The data sources and methodological approaches to the anticipation of the replacement demand are highlighted. It is shown that the main source of data for the labor force replacement demand anticipation in Ukraine, like in many other countries, is the state labor force the sample survey. A serious problem for Ukraine is accounting of labor migration effects for the replacement demand, which is assessed by conducting ad hoc surveys. The main methods used in anticipation of the replacement demand are method of trend extrapolation, methods of pseudo-cohorts, and stock-flow modeling. These methods enable for assessing and accounting of not only the processes of outflow of the labor force due to the age, but also transitory processes reflected, inter alia, in changes of qualifications and/or professions by young people at the beginning of their carrier.
 A medium-term anticipation of the labor force demand in Ukraine, caused by outflow of the labor force due to the age and labor migration, is performed. It is shown that the replacement demand caused by outflow of the workers due to the age, accounts for a most significant part of the overall demand for workforce, making up in medium-term perspective nearly 13% of the total employment in 2017. The level of the demand has strong variations across occupational and qualification groups: in the occupational group “the simplest occupations”, the average annual demand caused by the outflow due to the age will be nearly 3.4% of the total employment.
 It is shown that the replacement demand in Ukraine by occupational group may substantially increase due to labor migration. Thus, the high replacement demand for workers in the simplest occupations is enhanced by the external labor migration of such workers, which share is nearly 42% of the total labor migrants.

Novel measurement and verification of irrigation pumping energy conservation measures under incentive-based programmes

In most countries the agricultural sector, especially crop irrigation, is a considerable energy consumer. Farm irrigation studies in South Africa showed that energy and water is wasted on a large scale and there is a large potential for improving efficiency. The present study focusses on the measurement and verification (M&V) of irrigation pumping energy conservation measures (ECMs) under the Eskom Standard Product Programme funding mechanism in South Africa. A novel M&V methodology was developed to quantify ECM impacts under the Programme, which has special conditions and unique M&V requirements, which makes normal approaches inapplicable. Methods were designed to effectively determine conservative but representative impacts without continuous power demand profile measurement. The design involved unique methods to quantify operational demand reduction, annual energy consumption and annual average demand reduction impacts. The design was broadened to include pumps irrigating multiple crop areas and different kind of crops. The methodologies and techniques developed were validated and verified through establishing independent cross-check measures. The paper discusses a regional top-down M&V approach to verify the actual total energy efficiency and load reduction on the electricity grid for a specific region.

A joint economic lot-sizing problem with fuzzy demand, defective items and environmental impacts

In this paper, a joint economic lot-sizing problem consisting of a vendor and a buyer was proposed. A buyer ordered products from a vendor to fulfill end customer’s demand. A produced a batch of products, and delivered it to the buyer. The production process in the vendor was imperfect and produced a number of defective products. Production rate was assumed to be adjustable to control the output of vendor’s production. A continuous review policy was adopted by the buyer to manage his inventory level. In addition, an average annual demand was considered to be fuzzy rather than constant. The proposed model contributed to the current inventory literature by allowing the inclusion of fuzzy annual demand, imperfect production emission cost, and adjustable production rate. The proposed model also considered carbon emission cost which was resulted from the transportation activity. A mathematical model was developed for obtaining the optimal ordering quantity, safety factor and the number of deliveries so the joint total cost was minimized. Furthermore, an iterative procedure was suggested to determine the optimal solutions.

Inducción y enraizamiento de brotes epicórmicos de Cordia alliodora (Ruiz Et Pavon), Oken

La atractiva apariencia de la madera de Cordia alliodora (laurel), sus características físico-mecánicas, su abundante regeneración natural, captura de carbono y protección al suelo, la hacen ideal para la reforestación. No obstante, la falta de material de siembra de buena calidad para suplir la demanda media anual, convierten la propagación vegetativa en una herramienta esencial para el mejoramiento genético, y la conservación de genotipos en bancos clonales. En este sentido, se propuso establecer una metodología para la inducción y enraizamiento de brotes epicórmicos de árboles de laurel utilizando reguladores de crecimiento vegetal. Las concentraciones de citoquininas empleadas para la inducción de brotes a partir de árboles adultos fueron de: 0, 3000, 6000, 9000 mg L-1 de BAP sola y combinadas con 1000, 2000, 3000 mg L-1 de AIA, y se determinaron utilizando un Diseño Completo Aleatorizado (DCA). Las concentraciones de auxinas para el enraizamiento de los brotes fueron de 0, 1000, y 1500 mg kg-1 de ANA y AIB, mediante un DCA con arreglo factorial 3 x 3 (hormona ANA x hormona AIB). Se evaluó la inducción de brotes epicórmicos y se obtuvieron 2.67 brotes de 16.42 cm de longitud, con 6000 mg kg-1 de BAP + 2000 mg kg-1 de AIA. El porcentaje de enraizamiento fue 54%, número de raíces 1.78, longitud 2.59 con 1500 mg kg-1 de ANA + 1500 mg kg-1 de AIB. El uso de citoquininas y auxinas fue efectivo para provocar la diferenciación celular tanto en la inducción y rizogénesis de brotes epicórmicos de laurel.

COHORT STRUCTURE OF PATIENTS WITH PROXIMAL FEMUR FRACTURES AND ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE ANNUAL DEMAND FOR EMERGENCY SURGICAL TREATMENT

The aim of this study is to examine cohort structure of patients with proximal femoral fractures (PFF) and estimate an average annual demand in emergency surgical treatment for St. Petersburg adult population with mentioned diagnosis. Material and methods. The authors examined case histories and radiographs of 1412 adult patients with proximal femur fractures admitted to three St. Petersburg large general hospitals during one year. Analysis was done using statistical and expert evaluation methods.Results. Cohort structure of patients with PFF demonstrated the following distribution: female – 71,7%, male – 28,3%; Patients of elderly group prevailed: 70 years and older – 70,6%, 60–69 years old – 12%, 50–59 years old – 10,8%; Retirees with various disability status – 80%. Injury structure showed prevalence of femoral neck fractures –52%, pertrochanteric fractures represented 42%, subtrochanteric fractures – 5%. 11,3 days was the average time span from injury till surgery. The authors separately estimated urgent surgical treatment demand for patients with femoral neck fractures and patients with trochanteric fractures. Consequently, both groups results were summed up to generate the total average annual demand for emergency operative treatment for PFF which for adult population of St. Petersburg amounted to 4098 interventions, meaning one surgery per one thousand of adults.Conclusions. Absence of a common consistent approach to treatment of patients with proximal femur fractures as well as significant variance among St. Petersburg hospitals in respect of material, technical and staff resources result in a situation when not every patient with PFF undergoes surgical treatment. There is a strong need to develop and regulate implementation of a standardized treatment algorithm for such injuries, to improve infrastructure and resources of St. Petersburg general hospitals as well as to continuously monitor quality of medical treatment for patients with PFF.

Coordinating supplier retailer and carrier with price discount policy

Supply chain coordination with transport service providers (i.e., carriers) is seldom explored. This paper adds a carrier to a supplier–retailer system and analyzes the effect of the two sources of double marginalization on pricing policies. We assume that lead time demand is stochastic, and shortage during the lead time is permitted. In addition, we assume that the annual average demand rate is a decreasing function of the retail price. Our analysis shows that joint profit increases because demand increases, whereas unit operating cost decreases as a result of joint coordination. The analytical results for the decentralized and joint decision models are obtained for a specific annual average demand rate. Nonlinear transport-fee and wholesale-price discount schemes, which can facilitate supply chain coordination, are then obtained using the profit sharing method. Finally, numerical examples are presented for illustrative and comparative purposes.

Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries - Proposals for Implementation

Based on the Executive Board’s guidance during the first stage of the Review of Low Income Countries (LIC) Facilities, this paper suggests a number of refinements to the facilities and instruments that are consistent with the self-sustainability of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). The proposals seek to improve the tailoring and flexibility of Fund support. Taken together with those advanced in the parallel paper on PRGT eligibility, they are projected to keep the average annual demand for PRGT resources within a range consistent with the Board’s approved strategy to make the PRGT self-sustaining over the period 2013–35. The proposals are as follows.

The potential risks from metals bottlenecks to the deployment of Strategic Energy Technologies

This paper examines the use of materials, in particular metals, in six low-carbon energy technologies of the European Union's Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan), namely nuclear, solar, wind, bioenergy, carbon capture and storage and electricity grids. The projected average annual demand for metals in the SET-Plan technologies for the decades up to 2020 and 2030 is compared to the known global production volume in 2010. From an initial inventory of over 50 metals, 14 metals were identified that will require 1% or more of the 2010 world supply per annum between 2020 and 2030. These 14 metals are cadmium, dysprosium, gallium, hafnium, indium, molybdenum, neodymium, nickel, niobium, selenium, silver, tellurium, tin and vanadium. These metals were examined further by analysing the effect of market and geo-political factors of supply and demand, which highlighted five metals to represent a high risk to large-scale technology deployment, namely: neodymium, dysprosium, indium, tellurium and gallium. The five metals were further analysed with respect to the wind and solar sectors, showing that the demand of these metals could increase significantly depending on future sub-technology choices. Mitigation strategies to alleviate potential shortages are also discussed, e.g. extending primary output; re-use, re-cycling and waste reduction; and substitution.

Toward biotechnological production of adipic acid and precursors from biorenewables

Adipic acid is the most important commercial aliphatic dicarboxylic acid in the chemical industry and is primarily used for the production of nylon-6,6 polyamide. The current adipic acid market volume is about 2.6 million tons/y and the average annual demand growth rate forecast to stay at 3–3.5% worldwide. Hitherto, the industrial production of adipic acid is carried out by petroleum-based chemo-catalytic processes from non-renewable fossil fuels. However, in the past years, efforts were made to find alternative routes for adipic acid production from renewable carbon sources by biotechnological processes. Here we review the approaches and the progress made toward bio-based production of adipic acid.

A review of the 1892 water demand forecast for Birmingham

The water demand forecast forms half of the supply–demand balance used for developing a long-term water resources plan, but historical water demand forecasts attracted less analytical attention than historical water supply issues. This paper is a critical review of the water demand forecast for the city of Birmingham, which was presented to Parliament by James Mansergh in 1892 – when demand was growing by 3% per annum and the headroom of supply over demand was approaching zero – to justify the need for one of the largest and most controversial water resources schemes in the UK, the Elan Valley reservoirs in Mid-Wales. The first phase was commissioned in 1904. Today, the full scheme supplies water to over a million people in Birmingham, and will continue to do so well into the twenty-first century, long after the 60 to 70 years originally expected by Mansergh. The results of this analysis suggest that by demonstrating an understanding of the drivers of demand growth, Mansergh was able to convince Parliament that his assumptions about the scale of Birmingham's future demand growth were reasonable. A comparison of the 1892 forecast with actual annual average demand up to Mansergh's horizon in 1955 shows that the profile of his forecast was remarkably accurate.

Continuous review inventory model in mixed fuzzy and stochastic environment

In this paper, we consider a continuous review inventory system where fuzziness and randomness appear simultaneously into an optimization setting. Since demand plays an important role in such type of inventory systems, we develop a model in a mixed environment by incorporating fuzzy random variable as customer demand. After fuzzifying the random lead-time demand we consider the annual average demand as a fuzzy random variable. We provide an elegant methodology to determine the optimal order quantity and reorder point such that the total expected annual cost in the fuzzy sense has a minimum value. Since the expected value of a fuzzy random variable is a fuzzy quantity, a method of ranking fuzzy numbers using their possibilistic mean values is adopted to achieve the optimal solution. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed model.