Autumn Snow Cover Research Articles

Combined Impacts of Autumn Snow Cover on the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast Asia on the Winter Eurasian Temperature

ABSTRACTThis study explores the combined effects of autumn snow cover anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Northeast Asia (NEA) on winter Eurasian temperature using observational data for the period 1972–2021 and a linear baroclinic model (LBM). Distinctive wintertime temperature patterns are found across the Eurasian continent corresponding to increased autumn snow cover in NEA when TP experiences normal, above‐normal, or below‐normal snow cover condition. In the scenario with an anomalous increase in autumn snow cover in NEA in combination with normal snow cover condition in TP, the overall winter temperature anomalies tend to be generally weak across the Eurasian continent. In years when autumn TP snow cover is above normal, the spatial distribution of winter temperature anomalies over the Eurasian continent associated with more NEA snow cover exhibits a ‘cold Arctic‐warm Eurasia’ (CAWE) pattern. The emergence of this CAWE pattern can be attributed to the low‐pressure system induced by the intensified NEA snow cover, which is further reinforced by the atmospheric wave train generated by negative North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in winter. This low‐pressure system amplifies the polar vortex and causes cooling in polar regions. Simultaneously, southeasterly winds along the southwestern flank of the North Pacific high‐pressure system contribute to warming in the mid‐latitude regions of Eurasia. While in years when autumn snow cover in TP is less than normal, more snow cover over NEA is accompanied by a ‘warm Arctic‐cold Eurasia’ (WACE) temperature anomaly pattern prevalent during the winter season. The decrease in autumn Barents‐Kara Sea ice is accompanied by a circulation pattern akin to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during winter, favouring the southward intrusion of cold air, thus contributing to this WACE temperature anomaly pattern. Further analysis reveals that the impact of snow cover on the WACE temperature pattern is, for the most part, independent of the Arctic sea ice.

Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature

Although the seasonal prediction skill of climate models has improved significantly in recent decades, the prediction skill of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the dominant climate mode over the Northern Hemisphere, remains poor. Additionally, the local representation of AO impacts has diverged from observations, which limits seasonal prediction skill of climate models. In this study, we attempted to improve prediction skill of surface air temperature (SAT) with two post-processing on dynamical model’s seasonal forecast: (1) correction of the AO impact on SAT pattern, and (2) correction of AO index (AOI). The first correction involved replacing the inaccurately simulated impact of AO on SAT with that observed. For the second correction, we employed a empirical prediction model of AOI based on multiple linear regression model based on three precursors: summer sea surface temperature, autumn sea-ice concentration, and autumn snow cover extent. The application of the first correction led to a decrease in prediction skills. However, a significant improvement in SAT prediction skills is achieved when both corrections are applied. The average correlation coefficients for the North America and Eurasian regions increased from 0.23 and 0.06 to 0.28 and 0.30, respectively.

Connection between the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the late autumn snow cover anomalies over the central Tibetan Plateau

Many studies have investigated the effects of the snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), yet the original causes of these anomalies are not fully understood. In this study, we explore the possible connection between the late autumn (November) central TP snow cover anomalies and the monthly sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic (NA) in autumn and find significant correlations over the mid-latitude NA during October and November. By analyzing the air-sea interaction over the NA, we show that a well-organized horseshoe-like SST anomaly pattern coupled with a surface anomalous anticyclone centered over the mid-latitude NA in October and its persistence in November may play a key role in the November central TP snow cover anomalies. Such an October surface anomalous anticyclone could effectively result in the surface turbulent heat flux anomalies via the surface wind-induced horizontal temperature advection, which is conducive to the formation of the horseshoe-like SST anomalies over the mid-latitude NA. The resultant anomalous SST pattern could further contribute to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern in November and stimulate the wave trains eastward to the TP. The anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) associated with the wave trains to the southwest (north) of the TP suppresses the precipitation over the central TP and thus reduces the local snow cover. The atmospheric circulation responses to the persistent NA-SST anomalies are well validated by the numerical experiments. The above result might help to predict the condition of the central TP snow cover anomalies in November, one month ahead.

On the role of Eurasian autumn snow cover in dynamical seasonal predictions

On the role of Eurasian autumn snow cover in dynamical seasonal predictions

The Influence of Autumn Eurasian Snow Cover on the Atmospheric Dynamics Anomalies During the Next Winter in INMCM5 Model Data

The influence of autumn Eurasian snow cover on the atmospheric dynamics anomalies during the following winter is studied based on the INM RAS climate model data. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the leading pattern that causes the weather and climate variability in the Northern hemisphere. We evaluate the up-to-date model version (INMCM5) ability of the autumn Eurasian snow – winter NAO teleconnection simulation on different timescales. Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) is used to find winter atmospheric signals that are significantly correlated with autumn snow cover anomalies. Using MCA we conclude that Autumn Eurasian snow – winter NAO teleconnection is present in INMCM5 experiments on pre-industrial and present-day climate simulation. However, this method fails to show this phenomenon in experiments on a seasonal timescale. We conduct additional experiments on a seasonal timescale to assess the sensitivity of North Atlantic Oscillation index predictability to initial snow cover perturbations. These experiments demonstrate the absence of direct autumn Eurasian snow impact on the NAO index.

Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China

Spring extreme precipitation poses great challenges to agricultural production and economic development in southern China. From the perspective of prediction, the relationship between spring extreme precipitation frequency (SEPF) in southern China and preceding autumn snow cover over Eurasia is investigated. The results indicate that the southern China SEPF is significantly correlated with October snow cover in central Siberia. Corresponding to reduced October snow cover, the vertical propagation of planetary waves is suppressed, which leads to a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex from October to following December. The signal of the anomalous stratospheric polar vortex propagates downward to the surface, contributing to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern in December. The southwesterlies in the northern Eurasia-eastern Arctic associated with the positive NAO induce sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara seas in January–February, which then tends to enhance the vertical propagation of planetary waves by constructively interfering with the climatological wavenumber-1 component. Therefore, the stratosphere polar vortex is significantly weakened in spring, which further contributes to a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern in the troposphere. The negative spring AO is related to an anomalous cyclone in East Asia, which induces upward motion and moisture convergence in southern China, consequently providing favorable dynamic and moisture conditions for extreme precipitation in the region. The snow cover signal in central Siberia in the preceding October provides a potential source for the prediction of spring extreme precipitation variability in southern China with two seasons in advance.

Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Cryo‐cover

AbstractThe Earth's cryo‐cover (defined here as snow cover and sea ice) is dynamic, and varies considerably on both interannual and seasonal time‐scales. This study analyzes trends in Northern Hemisphere cryo‐cover from 1979 to 2020 using three datasets: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Sea Ice Extent, Rutgers Global Snow Lab (GSL) Snow Cover Extent and MeaSuREs State of the Cryosphere values. Temporal trends of cryo‐cover, both as a combined variable and as separate snow and ice components, are calculated on an annual and monthly basis. Using derived cryo‐cover concentration values, pixels are categorized to be either stable (covered 75% of the time or more) or transient (covered <75% of the time), as a method to differentiate the type of cryo‐cover present annually and monthly as well as associated trends and transitions from one cover type (stable or transient) to the other. Results indicate a decrease in cryo‐cover since 1979 with sea ice decreasing in all months, but snow cover increasing in the autumn and early winter and decreasing during the spring. Decreasing trends in stable cryo‐cover are observed during most months with several months seeing increases in transient cover. Increases in autumn snow cover (particularly in October) help to offset the large decreases in late summer/early autumn sea ice. From April to August, cryo‐cover as a whole exhibits statistically significant decreasing trends. A comprehensive understanding of the climatology of cryo‐cover is of great importance in understanding the radiative impacts of a changing cryosphere in a warming climate.

Influence of Tibetan Plateau autumn snow cover on interannual variations in spring precipitation over southern China

Using observational data from 1979–2015 and a linear baroclinic model (LBM), the present study examined the impact of autumn snow cover (ASC) over the western Tibetan Plateau (WTP) on the subsequent spring precipitation over southern China (SPSC). Focus was placed on the interannual time scale of the snow-precipitation relationship. The ASC over the WTP is positively correlated with the SPSC, and this snow-precipitation relationship is independent of sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indo-Pacific regions. When the ASC over the WTP is more extensive than normal, in the following spring, anomalous southerly winds over eastern China occur and transport water vapor northward from the tropical ocean to the interior of the continent, which is favorable for more SPSC. Further analysis of the energy budget shows that the anomalous ASC over the WTP persists to the following spring because of local positive snow-air feedback. Higher-than-normal ASC over the WTP can cool the above atmosphere and is associated with pronounced negative geopotential height anomalies that dominate in the East Asian-western North Pacific region. These negative height anomalies lead to a weakened and northward-shifted spring East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ). The changes in the spring EASJ lead to divergent anomalies at the upper level over the upstream as well as the central areas of the EASJ; therefore, anomalous low-level convergence and ascent motion dominate over coastal East Asia and in nearby regions, providing a favorable environment for positive SPSC anomalies.

Winter is coming and the clock starts ticking.

This article is a Commentary on Jánosi et al. (2020), 228: 1535–1547.

On the Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation in Autumn Snow Cover Over the Central Eastern Tibetan Plateau in the Mid‐1990s

AbstractThe interdecadal changes in the mechanisms accounting for the interannual variation in autumn snow cover over the central eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) are investigated in this study. An autumn snow index is constructed by area averaging the snow cover over the central eastern TP. The snow index changed from a predominantly negative phase to a positive phase in 1995. Then, the data were divided into two subperiods, 1979–1994 (P1) and 1995–2017 (P2), and the differences in the mechanisms accounting for the variation in autumn snow cover were compared between P1 and P2. An analysis of the local process shows that the autumn snow cover variations over the central eastern TP are caused by snowfall from both autumn and late summer. The autumn snow cover variation over the central eastern TP imposed more significant atmospheric cooling effects during P1 than P2. During P2, except for the local process, the interannual variation in autumn snow cover in the central eastern TP is also affected by atmospheric circulation anomalies originating from the upstream North Atlantic Ocean. During P2, snow‐related North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) can induce a wave train‐like atmospheric pattern that propagates eastward across the Eurasian continent and reaches the TP. Further analysis shows that this wave train‐like atmospheric pattern over the midlatitude Eurasian continent mainly obtains energy from climatological mean flow through baroclinic energy conversion. In contrast, during P1, the North Atlantic SSTA‐related atmospheric circulation pattern tends to propagate northeastward and cannot contribute to the variation in autumn snow cover over the central eastern TP.

Predictability of the early winter Arctic oscillation from autumn Eurasian snowcover in subseasonal forecast models

The response of the early winter Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex and tropospheric Arctic Oscillation to anomalous autumn snow cover in Eurasia is evaluated in four operational subseasonal forecasting models. Of these four models, the two with finer stratospheric resolution simulate a weakened vortex for hindcasts initialized with more extensive snow as compared to those with less extensive snow, consistent with the observed effect, though the modeled effect is significantly weaker than that observed. The other two models fail to capture the local Western Eurasian ridge in response to enhanced snow, and hence their failure to simulate a stratospheric response may be due to biases in representing surface–atmosphere coupling rather than their coarser stratospheric resolution per se. There is no evidence of a tropospheric Arctic Oscillation response in early winter in any of these models, which may be related to the weakness of the stratospheric response or (in one model) to too-weak coupling from the stratosphere down to the surface. Overall, the possible contribution of autumn snowcover over Eurasia to improved predictability of the winter Arctic Oscillation in subseasonal forecast models has not yet been realized even in a probabilistic sense.

Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods

Abstract. In recent years, many components of the connection between Eurasian autumn snow cover and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been investigated, suggesting that November snow cover distribution has strong prediction power for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter climate. However, the non-stationarity of this relationship could impact its use for prediction routines. Here we use snow products from long-term reanalyses to investigate interannual and interdecadal links between autumnal snow cover and atmospheric conditions in winter. We find evidence for a negative NAO-like signal after November with a strong west-to-east snow cover gradient, which is valid throughout the last 150 years. This correlation is consistently linked to a weak stratospheric polar vortex state. Nevertheless, decadal evolution of this link shows episodes of decreased correlation strength, which co-occur with episodes of low variability in the November snow index. By contrast, periods with high prediction skill for winter NAO are found in periods of high November snow variability, which co-occur with the Arctic warming periods of the 20th century, namely the early 20th-century Arctic warming between 1920 and 1940 and the ongoing anthropogenic global warming at the end of the 20th century. A strong snow dipole itself is consistently associated with reduced Barents–Kara sea ice concentration, increased Ural blocking frequency and negative temperature anomalies in eastern Eurasia.

Relationship between Siberian autumn snow cover and winter Arctic Oscillation: features of its time manifestation

Features of time manifestation of the influence of the Western Siberia autumn snow cover on the Arctic oscillation at the surface in the following winter are considered. 1979–2016 observational data are used. Each winter month (December, January, February) and the winter season as a whole are considered. The obtained results confirm the fact that the manifestation of a statistically significant linear connection between the October snow cover area and the AO index in the following winter in Western Siberia is sensitive to the choice of the time period of the study. The results also show that the mechanism of the relationship between the parameters under consideration starts and exists at some successful coincidence of the background conditions and it is not a driver itself.

Impacts of Autumnal Eurasian Snow Cover on Predominant Modes of Boreal Winter Surface Air Temperature Over Eurasia

AbstractIn the present paper, the linkage between the predominant modes of boreal winter surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Eurasia and the preceding autumnal Eurasian snow cover is investigated for the period of 1979–2014. The first leading winter Eurasian SAT mode exhibits a strong signal over the region northward from 40°N; in association with this SAT mode, a significant zonal dipole pattern in snow cover can be observed in the midlatitude Eurasia during November. Such anomalous November snow cover strengthens the wave activity flux upward propagating over the middle latitudes, which can change the stratospheric polar vortex thereafter. In the following winter, the anomalous polar vortex signal propagates downward to the surface and gives rise to the negative Arctic Oscillation‐like structure. Consequently, this leads to the winter SAT anomalies occupying the area north of 40°N. The second leading winter Eurasian SAT mode shows negative values northward from 60°N as well as positive over the middle latitudes of Eurasia; in association with the second SAT mode, the significant anomalous snow cover appears to the east of the Ural Mountains during October. Such an anomalous snow signal can persist from October until the subsequent winter and produce a wave‐like structure with a southeastward propagation from the Ural Mountains to the midlatitude Eurasia in the midtroposphere and upper troposphere, which results in the dipole anomalous temperatures lying in the middle to high latitudes of Eurasia. The preceding autumn snow cover signal is valuable for the prediction of the winter SAT over the Eurasian continent.

The Effect of Boreal Late Autumn Snow Cover over Western and Central China on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Blocking Frequency

The impact of snow cover in western and central China during late autumn on wintertime blocking occurrence is investigated using reanalysis data. The study results show that wintertime atmospheric circulations affected by late autumn snow cover anomalies form favorable conditions for increased blocking frequency (BF), especially in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Evidence is also presented that the stratosphere–troposphere interactions are the key mechanism of the lag response of wintertime North Pacific and North Atlantic BFs to the late autumn snow cover. That is, positive anomalous snow cover can induce a dipole anomaly in the geopotential height field over the lower stratosphere, due to the decrease of the 300–1000-hPa thickness and the concurrent variation between the East Asian plateau jet and the polar front jet. The associated positive geopotential height anomalies are located over northwestern Eurasia. Meanwhile, western and central China shows remarkably negative geopotential height anomalies. Also, the corresponding atmospheric circulation in the lower stratosphere increases the Eliassen–Palm flux that propagates into the stratosphere through the constructive interference between the forced and climatological waves. The upward wave activity fluxes collapse the polar vortex in the stratosphere, resulting in the downward propagation of the geopotential and wind anomalies from the stratosphere. Consequently, the decreased zonal wind speed in the upper layer of the blocking region forms conditions favorable for wintertime blocking.

Coping with differences in snow cover: the impact on the condition, physiology and fitness of an arctic hibernator.

The Earth's climate is changing at an unprecedented rate and, as ecologists, we are challenged with the difficult task of predicting how individuals and populations will respond to climate-induced changes to local and global ecosystems. Although we are beginning to understand some of the responses to changing seasonality, the physiological mechanisms that may drive these responses remain unknown. Using long-term data comparing two nearby populations (<20 km apart) of free-living arctic ground squirrels in northern Alaska, we have previously shown that the timing of spring snowmelt greatly influences their phenology of hibernation and reproduction in a population and site-specific manner. Here, we integrate these site-specific phenologies with body condition, stress physiology, reproductive success and juvenile recruitment to understand phenotypic selection in the two populations. We found that at the site with relatively late spring snowmelt and early autumn snow cover: (i) adult females were larger and in better body condition but had significantly higher stress hormone levels; (ii) females had similar numbers of comparably sized offspring, but offspring had higher stress hormone levels; and (iii) offspring density was lower just prior to hibernation. Thus, adult females at the two sites appear to use different coping strategies that allow them to maintain reproductive fitness; however, marked shortening of the active season because of later snowmelt in spring and earlier snow cover in autumn may compromise juvenile recruitment. We discuss the significance of these findings within the broader context of changing animal-environment relationships.

Autumn snow cover variability over northern Eurasia and roles of atmospheric circulation

This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover (SC) in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes. The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to November, following the seasonal progression of the transition zones of surface air temperature (SAT). The dominant pattern of SC variability in September and October features a zonal distribution, and that in November displays an obvious west–east contrast. Surface air cooling and snowfall increase are two factors for larger SC. The relative contribution of SAT and snowfall changes to SC, however, varies with the region and depends upon the season. The downward longwave radiation and atmospheric heat advection play important roles in SAT changes. Anomalous convergence of water vapor flux contributes to enhanced snowfall. The changes in downward longwave radiation are associated with those in atmospheric water content and column thickness. Changes in snowfall and the transport of atmospheric moisture determine the atmospheric moisture content in September and October, and the snowfall appears to be a main factor for atmospheric moisture change in November. These results indicate that atmospheric circulation changes play an important role in snow variability over northern Eurasia in autumn. Overall, the coupling between autumn Eurasian snow and atmospheric circulation may not be driven by external forcing.

Snow cover setting-up dates in the north of Eurasia: relations and feedback to the macro-scale atmospheric circulation

Variations of snow cover onset data in 1950 – 2008 based on daily snow depth data collected at first-order meteorological stations of the former USSR compiled at the Russia Institute of Hydrometeorological Information are analyzed in order to reveal climatic norms, relations with macro-scale atmospheric circulation and influence of snow cover anomalies on strengthening/weakening of westerly basing on observational data and results of simulation using model Planet Simulator, as well. Patterns of mean snow cover setting-up data and their correlation with temperature of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical land presented in Fig. 1 show that the most sensible changes observed in last decade are caused by temperature trend since 1990th. For the most portion of the studied territory variations of snow cover setting-up data may be explained by the circulation indices in the terms of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns: Scand, EA – WR, WP and NAO (Fig. 2). Role of the Scand and EA – WR (see Fig. 2, а , в , г ) is recognized as the most significant. Changes of snow cover extent calculated on the base of snow cover onset data over the Russia territory, and its western and eastern parts as well, for the second decade of October (Fig. 3) demonstrate significant difference in variability between eastern and western regions. Eastern part of territory essentially differs by lower both year-to-year and long-term variations in the contrast to the western part, characterized by high variance including long-term tendencies: increase in 1950–70th and decrease in 1970–80 and during last six years. Nevertheless relations between snow cover anomalies and Arctic Oscillation (AO) index appear to be significant exceptionally for the eastern part of the territory. In the same time negative linear correlation revealed between snow extent and AO index changes during 1950–2008 from statistically insignificant values (in 1950–70 and 1996–2008) to coefficient values –0.82 ÷ –0.85 in 1973–1994 (Fig. 4, а , б ). Results of numerical experiments on simulation of observed October snow cover anomaly in 1976 and its impact on Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure in winter months approved potential ability of abrupt increase of albedo caused by snow cover onset to influence on weakening of westerly and negative temperature anomalies in North Eurasia (Fig. 5). Evidently, based on observational data and results of modeling one should conclude that autumn snow cover anomalies in North are able to effect on macro-scale circulation regime in winter, but in condition of weakening of other major factors influencing on circulation, for example sea surface temperature over the oceans. In any case, correlation analysis of earth observations shows that snow cover extent anomalies could not be recognized as cause of negative AO anomalies and severe winters in North Eurasia in last decade.

Regions of autumn Eurasian snow cover and associations with North American winter temperatures

AbstractThe extent of snow cover over Eurasia during autumn has been shown to be influential in shaping atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere the following winter via the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnections. Regions of Eurasian snow cover were derived from Principal Component Analysis and compared to winter temperatures across North America for 1967/1968–2007/2008, excluding 1969/1970 and 1971/1972. The score time series of each principal component was then compared to winter averages of the AO, NAO, and PNA indices in order to identify possible links in the snow‐temperature relationship. Results showed that autumn snow cover from northern Scandinavia to the West Siberian Plain is most significantly associated with winter temperatures over the interior of North America. More (less) frequent snow cover over this region is related to lower (higher) winter temperatures over the interior of North America in January, extending to the eastern and southern United States in February. The greatest temperature response to anomalous snow cover occurred near the geographic centre of North America where winter temperature differences exceeded 5 °C. More (less) frequent autumn snow cover across the eastern Tibetan Plateau was associated with higher (lower) temperatures in the Great Basin and eastern Canada. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Temporal and Spatial Aspects of Snow Distribution in the Nam Co Basin on the Tibetan Plateau from MODIS Data

Large areas of the Tibetan plateau are only covered by a sparse network of ground snow sampling stations, while the snow cover is highly heterogeneously distributed due to wind, topography etc. Nevertheless, the snow accumulation and spatial patterns play an important role in the hydrological cycle. It releases moisture during the dry spring period before the onset of the monsoon season. Widely used MODIS snow cover products have been available globally since 2002. The understanding of the temporal and spatial distribution of snow cover in a given region calls for a comprehensive data representation method. In this paper a method to visualize both spatial and temporal aspects of snow cover distribution from MODIS 8-day composite data is presented. It is based on RGB display of the snow cover data which is grouped according to season. The RGB syntheses of snow cover distribution (RSD) were generated for the Nam Co Basin in the central part of the Tibetan Plateau during the years of 2002–2009. An alternating pattern of monsoon and autumn snow cover was identified in the western part of the basin which corresponds to the biennial character of the variations of the Indian monsoon. Monsoon snow cover was found in RSD images for the years 2002, 2004 and 2008 whereas in years 2003 and 2009 the autumn snow cover is dominant. The eastern part of the basin does not follow this general pattern since it is affected by the so called “lake effect”, which is a snow fall induced by the passing of dry and cold westerlies over the lake surface during the winter months. The years 2002, 2006 and 2007 were identified as years with a particularly strong lake effect from the RSD images. Areas with permanent snow cover and areas that were snow free were both found to be relatively stable. Comparison of the lake effect at Nam Co with nearby Siling Co, where the lake effect is smaller or absent, suggests that the presence of an effective barrier on the opposite side of the lake is a prerequisite for the occurrence of the strong lake effect.