Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method Research Articles

The Relationship Between Financial Development and Logistics Performance Index: A Panel ARDL Approach in Emerging Markets

The term "emerging markets" refers to countries that are undergoing economic and financial development. As financial development progresses in these nations, the capital available for international trade and the expansion of logistics infrastructure grows as well. This increased capital enables the financing of international trade activities and facilitates the execution of necessary logistics operations efficiently and effectively. Additionally, with enhanced financial development, it becomes easier to secure the capital required to improve logistics infrastructure and make it more functional. In this study, analyses are conducted using the Panel autoregressive distributed lag method in emerging market countries to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of financial development on logistics performance. The results reveal that increased access to financial institutions and markets positively affects logistics performance in both the short and long term. Among financial variables, the depth of financial institutions exhibits the strongest long-term influence, suggesting that a stable financial system is crucial for logistics efficiency. These insights provide valuable guidance for decision-makers aiming to strengthen logistics infrastructure and trade capabilities. By recognizing the role of financial development in supporting logistics performance, policymakers can craft strategies that support sustainable economic growth through improved logistics processes.

Economic growth and environmental sustainability: The role of foreign direct investment and technological innovation on carbon emissions in Ghana

Debates on foreign direct investment, technological innovation and carbon emission seem unsettling in the literature. We contribute to the literature by investigating the relationships between foreign direct investment, technological innovation, and carbon emissions in Ghana. Using the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) method, the analysis reveals that foreign direct investment contributes to reduced emissions in the short run but significantly increases carbon emissions in the long run, aligning with the pollution haven hypothesis. This indicates that Ghana may have a robust environmental regulation that ensures eco-friendly foreign direct investments in the short run, with weak enforcement of regulations resulting in high emissions in the long term. Technological innovation in the Ghanaian context contributes to increased CO2 emissions. However, the interaction effect of foreign direct investments and technological innovation reduces carbon emissions, emphasizing the importance of aligning foreign investments with sustainable technological advancements in Ghana. The study also identifies the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) effect, where emissions rise with economic growth but decelerate at higher GDP levels. The findings underscore the need for stronger environmental regulations and a shift towards sustainable, cleaner energy and technological development to mitigate the environmental impacts of economic growth in Ghana and similar developing countries.

Macroeconomic variables and initial public offerings in Sri Lanka: a principal component analysis approach

PurposeThis study aims to comprehensively examine the relationship between initial public offering (IPO) activities and macroeconomic factors in Sri Lanka.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses principal component analysis (PCA) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques to examine the relationship between IPO activities and macroeconomic factors. Ten macroeconomic variables are transformed into principal components (factors) using PCA. Then, ARDL is applied to investigate the long- and short-term relationships between IPO activities and the transformed macroeconomic factors.FindingsThe empirical investigation identifies three principal factors from the ten macroeconomic variables, of which two factors have a significant long-run association with IPO activities: “return on investment (RTOI)” and “economic and market development (ECMD).” In the short run, “trade openness and banking sector development (TOBD)” and RTOI are significantly associated with IPO activities.Research limitations/implicationsThe study was based on 30 years of observations, which passed all diagnostic tests but may be insufficient for generalizing the findings. Future studies could use high-frequency data (monthly or quarterly) to increase the number of observations and repeat the method and analysis. Also, while the symmetrical ARDL method was used in this study, an asymmetrical ARDL method may provide more insightful results and interpretations.Practical implicationsThe study highlights the importance of considering both long- and short-term associations when analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on IPO activities.Originality/valueThis study is the first to comprehensively examine the relationship between IPO activities and macroeconomic variables using PCA and the ARDL technique. The study provides insight into the macroeconomic factors that influence IPO activities in Sri Lanka and highlights the importance of considering long- and short-term associations.

Total Debt Service and Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Empirical Nexus

This study examines the relationship between debt service and economic growth in Nigeria in the period 1990-2022, utilizing time series data from the World Development Indicator and CBN Statistical Bulletin. The issue of debt servicing has become difficult for developing countries like Nigeria, and has not only stifle economic growth, but also increased the rate of poverty and unemployment in these countries. The study explores the empirical nexus between total debt service and economic growth in Nigeria, employing GDP growth rate as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables involved; are total debt serving, inflation rate and capital expenditure. The variables were estimated with autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, among other, after the stationarity tests conducted on them Indicate that the variables were of mixed integration. Evidence suggesting a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables was also established given the cointegration result. The ARDL results reveal that the inflation rate has an inverse and significant impact on GDP growth. Total Debt services variable also exhibited a similar impact on GDP growth. However, the results indicated that capital expenditure variable has a direct and significant impact on GDP growth. Based on the findings, this study recommends that the Nigerian government should implement robust monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation and revisit its debt management strategy to ensure sustainability. It is also recommended that the government should not only increase capital expenditure but also ensure that these investments are directed towards sectors with the highest economic growth potentials. Keywords: Debt service, economic growth, inflation, capital expenditure and GDP growth

Total Debt Service and Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Empirical Nexus

This study examines the relationship between debt service and economic growth in Nigeria in the period 1990-2022, utilizing time series data from the World Development Indicator and CBN Statistical Bulletin. The issue of debt servicing has become difficult for developing countries like Nigeria, and has not only stifle economic growth, but also increased the rate of poverty and unemployment in these countries. The study explores the empirical nexus between total debt service and economic growth in Nigeria, employing GDP growth rate as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables involved; are total debt serving, inflation rate and capital expenditure. The variables were estimated with autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, among other, after the stationarity tests conducted on them Indicate that the variables were of mixed integration. Evidence suggesting a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables was also established given the cointegration result. The ARDL results reveal that the inflation rate has an inverse and significant impact on GDP growth. Total Debt services variable also exhibited a similar impact on GDP growth. However, the results indicated that capital expenditure variable has a direct and significant impact on GDP growth. Based on the findings, this study recommends that the Nigerian government should implement robust monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation and revisit its debt management strategy to ensure sustainability. It is also recommended that the government should not only increase capital expenditure but also ensure that these investments are directed towards sectors with the highest economic growth potentials. Keywords: Debt service, economic growth, inflation, capital expenditure and GDP growth

Econometric analysis of factors influencing export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in NIGERIA: An auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach

This study presents an econometric analysis of factors influencing the export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in Nigeria using an auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. The study used a secondary data covering the period from 2011 to 2022. The used data were collected from CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), NBS (National Bureau of Statistics), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), and the General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-P) in conjunction with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the World Bank publication. The data analysis included descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Bound test, ARDL, and principal component model. The result of the ADF unit root test showed that the trade openness, consumer price index, exchange rate, population growth, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and soybean production were stationary at first difference I (1), while agricultural machinery was stationary at level I (0). The results of ARDL method showed that the consumer price index, population growth rate, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and agricultural machinery were significant factors influencing export performance of soybean in Nigeria. The trade openness and exchange rate were not different significantly from zero. The trade openness could not expand market access due to non-competitiveness of the Nigerian’s soybean. The exchange rate has lost its role with respect to soybean seed partners in international trade. The policies that would encourage exportation of this crop should be pursued by provision of storage facilities, granting of tax holidays, long term export credit at concessionary interest rate to exporters, and research activities towards improving the quality of produced agricultural products. Keywords: Export Performance, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag, Soybean Production, Nigeria

HDI, Oil Prices, Government Expenditures in GCC: Evidence from a Cross Sectional ARDL Approach

This study explores the relationship between oil prices and the Human Development Index (HDI) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. It investigates whether oil prices remain the primary driver of economic growth and development in the region. The analysis employs a Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) approach and Cointegrated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CCEMG) methods, following unit root and stationarity tests. The findings reveal an insignificant correlation between oil prices and HDI in the overall GCC countries. However, significant relationships are observed at the individual country level. These results suggest that policymakers in the region should prioritize economic diversification and focus on sectors such as tourism in Dubai and the specific policies implemented in Saudi Arabia to foster sustainable development.

The J-curve of Indonesia Trade Balance With His Trading Partners: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method

The J-curve of Indonesia Trade Balance With His Trading Partners: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method

Navigating Nepal’s Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: Insights into the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)

This research aims to employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method within the insight into the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) to verify whether EKC exists in the Nepalese economy. In this research, variables were used, such as carbon emissions per capita, GDP per capita, energy use per capita, trade volume, and urbanization from 1980 to 2021, and the ARDL method was used. The data has been taken in this research except trade volume from the World Bank and the Ministry of Finance, Nepal. The data sets are converted into the natural logarithmic form to minimize the problem of heteroskedasticity. The findings provide compelling evidence for the existence of the EKC in Nepal, that economic growth has an inverted U-shaped impact on carbon emissions. In the early stages of development, economic growth leads to rising carbon emissions, but in the later stages, economic growth becomes associated with declining emissions. Besides economic growth, per capita energy consumption and urbanization emerge as significant drivers of carbon emissions. However, the trade volume is not found to be the driving factor of carbon emissions. The findings of this study have significant policy implications for global climate change issues and Nepal’s transition from an underdeveloped to a developing nation. To achieve harmonious economic growth and emissions reduction, donor countries and agencies to partner with Nepal in its ambitious endeavors. This partnership can take shape through multifaceted support as fueling socio-economic progress that aligns with Nepal’s commitment to reduce carbon emissions, ensuring that development and sustainability walk together. This research recommends the government of Nepal electrify the transportation landscape by incentivizing the adoption of electric vehicles, paving the way for cleaner air and a healthier planet, empowering Nepal’s natural guardians by strengthening public and private forest programs, safeguarding invaluable ecosystems and biodiversity and curbing the tide of waste mismanagement through strict regulations and robust enforcement, transforming a potential threat into a source of innovation and resourcefulness. These measures, aligned with sustainable employment generation, can pave the way for a brighter and greener future for Nepal.

The Impact of the Oil Industry on the Economic Development of Nigeria

The study examined the impact of the oil industry on the economic development of Nigeria. The Nigerian petroleum industry dominates the Nigerian economy in terms of profits and revenue. According to the recent Petroleum Export Organization (OPEC) report, Nigeria currently ranks as the world's tenth-largest crude oil reserves and also the world's fifteenth crude oil producer. According to national statistics, the industry generates for the country more than 95% of the country's external revenue and about 80% of government revenue. Secondary data collected on the economic variable used in the study comes from the World Bank, worldometer, and the International Monetary Fund, Statistical Review of World Energy, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, CEICDATA (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) from 1990 to 2016. An augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, and autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) method, and ARDL related to the test co-integration with various other diagnostic techniques were used for the study. The result reveals that oil production contributed to economic development, but the consumption and export of crude oil did not contribute to the improvement of the Nigerian economy. The study concluded that the government should implement policies that would encourage the private sector to actively participate in the crude oil sector and sectors of the economy. In addition, the government should use the revenue generated from oil to invest in other national sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing to expand the revenue stream of the economy

Analyzing the Nexus between AI Innovation and Ecological Footprint in Nordic Region: Impact of Banking Development and Stock Market Capitalization using Panel ARDL method

This study investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) innovation on the ecological footprint in the Nordic region from 1990 to 2020, alongside the effects of banking development, stock market capitalization, economic growth, and urbanization. Utilizing the STIRPAT model, the study incorporates cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity tests, revealing issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The analysis employs both first and second-generation panel unit root tests, confirming that the variables are free from unit root problems. Panel cointegration tests demonstrate that the variables are cointegrated in the long run. To explore the short- and long-term relationships, the study utilizes the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The Panel ARDL results indicate that economic growth, stock market capitalization, and urbanization positively correlate with the ecological footprint in both the short and long run. Conversely, AI innovation and banking development negatively correlate with the ecological footprint. To validate the Panel ARDL estimations, robustness checks are performed using Fully Modified OLS, Dynamic OLS, and Fixed Effects with OLS, all of which support the initial findings. Furthermore, the study employs the D-H causality test to identify causal relationships. The results show a unidirectional causal relationship between AI innovation, stock market capitalization, urbanization, and the ecological footprint. In contrast, a bidirectional causal relationship exists between economic growth and the ecological footprint, as well as between banking development and the ecological footprint.

Capital Flight and Nigeria Economic Growth

The study explored the impact of capital outflow in Nigeria and focused on its implications for the country's emerging economy. It reviews relevant literature and theories. It applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to analyze the time series data obtained for the investigation. The ARDL bounds tests for cointegration was used to determine the relationships among the variables. The autoregressive distributed lag method was also employed to evaluate the short- and long-term associations between the explanatory factors and economic growth. Findings reveal a limited correlation between capital outflow and economic growth, whereas foreign direct investment showed a minor negative impact in the long run. It was also revealed in the investigation that leadership style and Governance contribute to capital flight in the country. Recommendations were to the effect that, creation of a favourable economic environment was necessary to reduce capital outflow, promote trade liberalization, and encourage regional integration to enhance market access.

An investigation of nexus between climate-related financial policy and energy security: novel evidence from global database

PurposeThis paper answers the question of whether climate-related financial policies (CRFP) enable the energy transition in the European region.Design/methodology/approachBy using various econometric techniques (namely a panel-corrected standard errors [PCSE] model and a feasible generalized least square estimates [FGLS] model, this study examines a link between CRFP and energy security (ES).FindingsUsing seven indicators, this paper examines four parts of energy security: acceptability, availability, sustainability and developability. The author has performed econometric analyses on 17 European countries during the period 2010–2020 to reveal critical findings. The results show a relationship between CRFP and energy intensity, energy consumption, nonfossil energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions. This finding suggests that CRFP involvement benefits the energy system’s acceptability, developability and sustainability. Moreover, the author observes long-term cointegration between CRFP and ES, and the findings validate their short-term and long-term effects. The author also finds that ES is influenced by past and future CRFP participation.Practical implicationsThis study focuses on countries in a European Union (EU) region, which contribute significantly to secure ES and represent a varied spectrum of rich and emerging economies.Originality/valueIn this paper, the author contributes to the research in three ways. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first empirical study to explore CRFP as a contributor to the security of the energy system. This research contributes to the existing body of information by investigating the influence of CRFP on environmental quality as assessed by various dimensions. Second, this paper uses a PCSE model based on cross-sectional dependence and stationarity tests. Furthermore, the findings can be further verified using FGLSs considering heteroscedasticity. Long-term and short-term impacts of autoregressive distributed lag methods were also investigated using pooled mean groups (PMG).

Energy security and its determinants in New Zealand

New Zealand relies on imported fossil fuels for about 38% of its primary energy. The country’s energy demand is expected to grow due to population and economic growth, which will put more pressure on the energy system. Besides, resource scarcity, energy price volatility, and environmental challenges have made energy security a major concern for New Zealand and other countries. Given the lack of significant research on the effects of energy security factors in New Zealand, this study aims to shed light on the primary determinants of energy security using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag method based on time series data from 1978 to 2021. The study found that a long-run link exists between energy security and energy intensity (energy efficiency), renewable energy use, fossil fuel consumption, and global oil prices. Real GDP, renewable energy consumption, and energy security were found to improve energy security, while fossil fuel consumption and world oil prices had a negative impact. The study also revealed a one-way causality from real GDP, fossil fuel consumption, and renewable energy use to energy security. In contrast, the relationship between energy intensity and energy security is bidirectional. Simulation results showed that global crude oil prices have a lower impact on energy security compared to other variables and are most responsive to a 5% shock in fossil fuel consumption, followed by economic growth.

Unlocking the sustainable tourism development in the USA: what are the effects of carbon emission?

PurposeThis study is carried out to investigate the effects of tourism expenditure, technological development and foreign direct investment on tourism development in the United States of America, a top international tourism destination in the world, from 1995 to 2021.Design/methodology/approachTo this end we use the Autoregressive Distributive Lag method which captures short and long run effects. This method is also fundamental in presenting robust results when time series data with short time periods is used. The FMOLS and DOLS methods are used to ensure the robustness of the findings.FindingsThe results of the Autoregressive Distributive Lag indicate that spending on tourism contributes to the growth of the tourist industry in the country. The study reveals that economic growth has a detrimental impact on the development of tourism. Furthermore, carbon emissions are exclusively impeding the long-term progress of tourism development. The country's prioritization of economic growth has led to a rise in carbon emissions, disregarding the desire of tourists to experience a pollution-free and natural environment. Moreover, foreign direct investment exerts a beneficial impact on the advancement of tourism.Originality/valueAlthough there has been numerous research on the factors that influence tourism, there is less documentation on the specific factors affecting tourism development. The research examines the effect of carbon emission of tourism development of United States, the World's top tourism destinations. Few studies have attempted to unlock this association in the United States; hence, the research originality.

Dynamic role of energy utilization, financial development, and information technology on environmental sustainability? Evidence by the tragedy of the commons theory

Economic growth is contingent upon the financial sector expansion. A solid and well-developed financial industry can improve business opportunities. The financial sector has a decisive role to play in mitigating damage to the environment. Despite extensive research on sustainability, more needs to be accomplished in terms of pinpointing the keys to a world free of environmental degradation. The study aims to illuminate the relationship between CO2 emissions and variables such as non-renewable energy consumption, GDP growth, FDI, and information and communication technologies. Time series data for Pakistan from 1985 to 2021 is employed with the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, highlighting the underlying relationship between the variables. Moreover, the econometric model is derived from the STRIPAT function based on carbon as an environmental variable, while energy utilization and communication technology are population affluent. According to the empirical results of the current study, there is a negative connection between financial development and CO2. However, foreign direct investment, information and communication technologies, and non-renewable energy sources are positively associated with CO2. The study findings suggest that policymakers should promote more financial investment in greener technologies and digitization, and the government should also revamp its energy mix and emphasize alternate energy sources.

The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on UK–Pakistan trade flows: New evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach

Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) method, the current study explores the effects of exchange rate variations on commodities trade between Pakistan and the United Kingdom. The current study contends that the limiting assumption of symmetry between the exchange rate and the trade flows may have hampered the empirical results, despite the fact that earlier studies primarily used the symmetric cointegration approach. From 1980 to 2020, the study examines the symmetric and asymmetries effects of exchange rate variations on 35 sectors in Pakistan that import from the UK and 35 industries that export to the UK. The findings suggest that there is evidence of a considerable influence of asymmetric exchange rate variations on trade flows in both the short and long term in over half of the importing and exporting industries that participate in trade with the UK. By highlighting the significance of taking into account asymmetry in the analysis and exposing the sector-specific effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows, the study adds to the body of current work.

The nexus between the shadow economy and financial development in Uganda

This paper examines the nexus between the shadow economy and financial development in Uganda making use of yearly time series data over the period 1991 to 2017 and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is applied. Findings are quite telling. We find that financial development reduces the shadow economy in a significant manner, in both the long- and short-run. This finding is robust to the use of alternative measures of financial development. Our results have far reaching implications. Firstly, findings indicate that financial structure plays a key role in mitigating the increase of the shadow economy given that the financial sector can provide access to credit that eases financial constraints faced by entrepreneurs. Thus, a well-functioning financial sector could facilitate access to credit by entrepreneurs which reduces their motivation to operate underground. These findings seem to suggest that reforming financial institutions to facilitate improved access to domestic credit could help tackle widespread informality in developing economies. Additionally, minimizing informality also requires reforming the political system, institutional framework and macroeconomic environment to become responsive to the needs of businesses.

Asymmetric impact of energy consumption & financial development on environment using ARDL approach: Case of ASEAN countries

Current research explores the adverse impact of energy consumption and economic development in the ASEAN region. The choice of the region stems from the fact that the human development index of the region ranges widely from 0.93 of Singapore to that of Myanmar, which is 0.58. besides that, the region's Ecological Footprint is increasing with time. Another aspect of the region stems from the fact that, on average, the region has had an ecological deficit since the 1970s. This research examines the origins of environmental degradation in South Asia by analyzing the lopsided impact of urbanization and economic expansion on economic growth and energy use. This study applies the non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) method to examine the asymmetry that results from both the positive and negative disruptions of financial development and energy consumption, using an annual dataset spanning 1980 to 2021. According to the NARDL model's findings, both positive and negative shocks in energy consumption significantly contribute to increasing environmental degradation over the long run and decreasing the density of CO2 emissions in the short run. While several factors can cause short-term changes in CO2 emissions, only an adverse shift in financial development can have a lasting and major effect on global emissions. In addition, the ARDL model's findings suggest that less environmental deterioration occurs due to economic progress, but CO2 emissions increase due to rising energy consumption. This article argues that governments should try to achieve high economic success through energy consumption and economic growth that is less taxing on the environment.

Effect of Bank Credit to the Private Sector on the Performance of Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

The study investigated the effect of bank credit to the private sector on the performance of manufacturing sector in Nigeria, from 1981 – 2021. The objective of the study is to determine the effect of bank credit to the private sector (CPS) on the manufacturing output in Nigeria. To carry out the study, data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics for various years. The dependent variable for the study was manufacturing output while the proxies for exploratory variable include; credit to the private sector (CPS); interest and exchange rates. For analysis and estimation, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was adopted. Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) tests for stationarity showed that the variables were integrated at first level while ARDL Bound tests established a cointegration relationship of the variables. The result of the study revealed that credit to the private sector (CPS), interest rate; and exchange rate (independent variables) on the aggregate accounted for 93.9% of the total variations on manufacturing output (dependent variable) in Nigeria during the study period while 6.1% was due to stochastic error. The result further found out exchange rate had a positive coefficient value and a significant impact on manufacturing output in Nigeria during the period of study while other explanatory variables that include credit to the private sector and interest rate were statistically insignificant on manufacturing GDP during the study period. On the basis of the findings, the researcher recommends that Central bank of Nigeria as an apex bank should apart from using both direct and indirect controls should strengthen the use of moral suasion to encourage banks not to relent in granting the sector as the government endeavours to diversify the revenue sources of the economy. Secondly, government and Central Bank of Nigeria (the apex regulatory body of banks) should take bold steps and use all necessary economic and financial policies and regulations to make lending a single digit interest rate in Nigeria especially in a critical sector like agriculture.