Australian Weed Risk Assessment Research Articles

Assessing weediness potential of Brassica carinata (A.) Braun in the southeastern United States

Carinata (Brassica carinata (A.) Braun) is a promising winter oilseed crop in the southeastern US, and ensuring agricultural and ecological safety is critical for growers. The present study evaluated the weediness and invasiveness potential for carinata in the southeastern US. A field study was conducted in Goldsboro and Clayton, North Carolina comparing emergence and survival of volunteer carinata with and without predator exclusion. Cumulative seedling emergence at both locations was highest for buried seeds with predator exclusion (42% and 15%) and lowest in unburied seeds without predator exclusion (16% and 1%). Survival 90 days after planting (DAP) at both locations was highest for buried seeds with predator exclusion (10% and 5%) and lowest in unburied seeds without predator exclusion (3% and <1%). Frost damage contributed to predator damage increasing mortality of established plants to 100% 120 DAP. In addition to the field study, the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) and Plant Risk Evaluation were conducted for carinata. The cumulative score for the Australian WRA was –1 (low risk), which was below the minimum score of 6 for rejection of introduction. The agricultural and environmental scores were –5 and –2, corresponding to a low risk in agricultural and non-agricultural settings. The cumulative Plant Risk Evaluation score was 6 (low risk), which was below the minimum score of 13 for rejection. Based on the field study and risk assessments, it was concluded that there is low risk of weediness and invasiveness for volunteer carinata in the southeastern US.

Do non-native and dominant native species carry a similar risk of invasiveness? A case study for plants in Turkey

Most risk analysis studies in invasion biology have focused on the invasiveness of non-native species, even though some native species also can pose a high risk to the environment and human well-being. This is especially true under current global change, which may cause dominant native species to expand their range of distribution and have substantial effects on the ecosystem. In this study, the risk of invasiveness of five non-native and five native plant species in Turkey was evaluated using a standard risk screening protocol. All ten species selected for screening are known to be invasive in several parts of the world, i.e. non-native Ailanthus altissima, Cuscuta campestris, Phytolacca americana, Robinia pseudoacacia and Sicyos angulatus, and native Cirsium arvense, Hedera helix, Onopordum acanthium, Phragmites australis and Sorghum halepense. The Australian Weed Risk Assessment decision-support tool adapted to Turkey’s geographical and climatic conditions was used for screening the study species based on their biological traits, ecology and management approaches. All species were classified as high-risk, with R. pseudoacacia among non-natives and P. australis among natives achieving the highest scores followed by S. halepense, C. campestris, C. arvense, O. acanthium, P. americana, S. angulatus, A. altissima and H. helix. Based on their risk scores, all non-native species were classified as invasive and all native species as ‘expanding’ for Turkey. An ordination based on the risk scores showed similarities between invasive and expanding species. The outcomes of this study indicate that species can have several risk-related traits resulting in high risk scores irrespective of their origin. Such species can modify their environment and interact with other species with severe consequences for biodiversity. It is argued that dominant species with highly negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts in their habitats should be included in priority lists for management measures irrespective of their origin (i.e. native or non-native). More studies are needed to evaluate the magnitude and prevalence of the present findings for other regions worldwide.

CHEMICALS AND NUTRITIONAL PROPERTIES OF SOME EDIBLE WEEDS SPECIES AS POTENTIAL FOODS AND FUTURE CROPS

Edible weed species are of great interest in human food demand due to their contributions in the provision of people’s daily intake or as supplemented nutrition over the world. Therefore, a survey study was conducted to record wild edible plants in Egypt. Which, about 44 plants species were distributed into 21 genera belonging to 14 botanical families which have domestic usages. Based on the chemical analysis of elemental composition (Mg, Ca, Na, K, Mn, and Fe) and dietary nutritive values including ash content, fiber, fat, protein, and total carbohydrates were ranked. Considerably interested found in Corchorus olitorius which recorded the highest nutritive values with higher content of nutritional values and amino acids, followed by Portulaca oleracea in the second order. Australian Weed Risk Assessment protocols revealed that Cichorium intybus, Sonchus oleraceus and C. olitorius were achieved an accepted risk, while the other species had low risks scoring. The analysis revealed a positive correlation between oxalate content and risk assessment of edible weeds. Therefore, these species can be considered as a good and low-cost source for amino acids and minerals compared with the locally consumed vegetables. Finally, this information can provide the priority species for future domestications as promising food crops.

Dispersal potential rather than risk assessment scores predict the spread rate of non‐native pines across New Zealand

Abstract Pine (genus Pinus) species are planted extensively for forestry purposes in areas where they are non‐native, with the result that biological invasions by many of these species are of considerable concern in many regions. Owing to the economic importance of these species, management approaches must focus on reducing the risk that they will spread from plantings, which requires access to accurate and rigorous risk analysis protocols. However, while a variety of tools are available that accurately predict which species are likely to naturalise, their performance in forecasting the subsequent rates of spread of species once established remain unproven. We compared 10 measures of risk that could be used to forecast the likelihood of pine spread, including established risk assessment tools as well as dispersal‐related plant traits: expert assessment of spreading vigour, the Z‐score, the Australian weed risk assessment protocol (WRA), seed terminal velocity, tree height, modelled dispersal potential, and planting effort. We examined the extent to which these measures were consistent in their estimate of risk and assessed their ability to accurately predict the spread rates of 10 non‐native naturalised pine species within New Zealand. Of the measures of risk assessed here, only the models of dispersal potential were able to significantly predict the species' spread rates within New Zealand. In addition, seed terminal velocity was significantly correlated with expert assessment of the species spreading vigour, indicating these two measures capture similar aspects of risk. Modelled long‐distance dispersal from forests had the greatest explanatory power for the species spread rates in New Zealand. Synthesis and applications. Common weed risk assessment tools and expert knowledge were unable to predict the spread rates of non‐native naturalised pine species in New Zealand, and should not be used to provide an index of spread risk. Instead, we recommend a move towards the use of dispersal models when assessing the spread risk of these species, even at national scales. Current practices relying on expert assessment are likely to underestimate the spread rate of species currently considered ‘low risk’, suggesting that these tools may be inadequate for predicting spread of these species.

Outbreak of a new alien invasive plant Salvia reflexa in north‐east China

SummaryThe establishment of invasive species is widely recognised as a pivotal issue in the preservation of biodiversity. Salvia reflexa, a species native to the south‐central United States and Mexico, has been widely introduced in Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. In China, the first population of this plant was found growing adjacent to a grain depot in Shahai village, Jianping County, Liaoning Province, on 25 July 2007. Since the grain depot imported foodstuffs from regions where the plant is native, we infer that S. reflexa was introduced into China via imported foodstuff in the early to mid‐2000s. Based on field observations, at least seven populations of this plant were observed in north‐east China. The plants displayed vigorous growth in midsummer and produced prolific seeds to overcome the cold environment in winter. Salvia reflexa occurred in both dense monocultures and in mixed stands with native plants. In order to validate a system for recognising and categorising non‐native plants in China, the Australian Weed Risk Assessment system was used to assess the invasiveness status of 19 exotic and 16 native plants in north‐east China. Salvia reflexa exhibited a high score of 10, suggesting it is a potentially pernicious alien invasive plant. Although the current distribution of S. reflexa is restricted to Liaoning province and thus far has limited impact on local environments, local regulatory authorities should pay close attention to this plant and take measures to stop its expansion. This is the first time that an invasive plant from the Lamiaceae (mint family) has been documented from cold environments in China.

Running bamboo species pose a greater invasion risk than clumping bamboo species in the continental United States

Bamboo species have been promoted for utility in both biomass and pulp production because of their high productivity. However, some bamboo species are known to be problematic invaders. Our goal was to use a weed risk assessment (WRA) tool to evaluate and compare invasion risk of non-native running and clumping bamboo species, many of which are under consideration as paper pulp and bioenergy crops in the continental United States. WRAs were conducted for 18 running and 29 clumping bamboo species using a version of the Australian WRA modified for the U.S. We tested for differences in scores and the number of questions answered for clumping and running species, the relationship between the WRA score and the number of questions answered, and the questions that differentiated low and high-risk species. Overall, we found that running bamboo species present a significantly higher invasion risk than clumping species. Only one running bamboo species (Chimonobambusa tumidissinoda) was identified as low risk and one clumping species (Bambusa bambos) was high risk for invasion. History of invasiveness elsewhere, the ability to form dense thickets, and unintentional dispersal of viable rhizome pieces were associated with significantly greater predicted risk. Commercial applications of bamboo should focus on the use of low invasion risk clumping bamboo species to reduce the risk of escape and colonization of nearby natural areas. Further, bamboo-specific best management practices (BMPs) should be implemented to reduce the probability of invasion for species used in commercial production.

A test of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment system in China

The Australian Weed Risk Assessment system (AWRA) is an effective pre-border weed-screening tool that has played an active role in preventing the introduction of alien weeds into Australia and has been utilized in several other countries worldwide. Here, we selected 131 species of naturalized exotic plants (including 76 species of given non-weeds and 55 species of given weeds) to evaluate the AWRA in China for the first time. The AWRA performed better for discriminating major weeds than non-weeds and minor weeds, as it correctly rejected 84% of major weeds and did not wrongly accept a major weed. Among non-weeds, 76% were correctly classified with the final outcome of “accept” and 7.9% were wrongly rejected by the AWRA. This system correctly rejected 56% of minor weeds but accepted only 2.8% of minor weeds. The remaining 23% of all alien plants tested were classified as “evaluate further” by the AWRA. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.944, suggesting that the AWRA would be highly efficient at discriminating alien plants in China. In addition, we compared the scores of seven attributes of the AWRA between prior plant categories and analyzed their correlation with weed status. The average score for each attribute differed significantly between the two prior categories (weed and non-weed), but the average scores of the attribute “undesirable traits” did not significantly differ between any two of the three categories (non-weeds, minor weeds, and major weeds). There was a significant positive correlation between the scores of each attribute of the AWRA and weed status. The correlation coefficient for “dispersal mechanisms” and weed status was the highest and that for “undesirable traits” was the lowest. We believe that the AWRA can serve as an important weed-screening tool for plant introduction management in China.

Traits related to biological invasion: A note on the applicability of risk assessment tools across taxa

Biological invasions are occurring frequently and with great impact to agricultural production and other ecosystem services. In response to this, the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (AWRA) was created to assess the potential ‘weediness’ of plants based on answers to questions related to biogeography, undesirable attributes, and biology or ecology. This basic model has been expanded and adapted for use on other taxa, often without adequate validation. Since invasive insect crop pests are a major economic cost to agricultural production, there is interest in using an expanded model for insects. Here, we review traits related to invasiveness of insects based on a systematic review of the literature. We then compare the identified invasive traits of insects with those identified for plants in the AWRA. Using insects as a case study, we illustrate that although there is some overlap in invasive traits, there are many unique traits related to invasion for both insects and plants. For insects, these traits relate largely to social behaviour. This lack of congruence may also be the case for other taxa. To increase predictive power, a taxon-specific risk assessment tool and deliberate verification are required.

Big troubles are already here: risk assessment protocol shows high risk of many alien plants present in Portugal

Invasion by alien plants results in serious adverse impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, economy and social welfare, and is an ever-increasing challenge for nature conservation. Control of established invasive species is frequently very difficult and costly. Therefore, predicting which species have risk of becoming invasive is crucial both to prevent introduction of new invaders and to target high risk species already present in order to avoid their spread, particularly to areas with high conservation value. In Portugal more than 600 alien plant species are present as casuals or naturalized, and decision support tools are needed to discriminate which of these have higher probability of becoming invasive. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment, adapted to the Portuguese conditions (P-WRA), by evaluating 172 plant species: 49 considered as invasive; and, 123 as non-invasive species. The results showed that the P-WRA correctly identified all invasive species. As for non-invasive species, 17% were accepted, 78% rejected and 5% required further evaluation. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve reflected high accuracy of predictions despite lower than that found in other regions. The best cutoff level for P-WRA score, maximizing the ability for classification of the protocol, was 13 resulting in more non-invasive species accepted (46%). In the end, this assessment informed that in addition to the 49 species already invasive, a high number (66) of alien plant species have invasive risk. Amongst these, a list of 20 species is proposed for targeted priority management aiming to prevent their spread. Comparison of the scores obtained with A-WRA for other regions with Mediterranean climate revealed that 17% of the species compared (78) reached different outcomes, signaling the need to be careful when extrapolating the use of previous scores. The P-WRA can be a promising screening system post-border for predicting invasive species already present in Portugal and contribute to the targeting of species for priority intervention, particularly in natural areas with high conservation value.

Priority invasive alien plants in the Tuscan Archipelago (Italy): comparing the EPPO prioritization scheme with the Australian WRA

For the first time, we tested the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) prioritization process (EPP) on 212 alien plant species thriving in the Tuscan Archipelago, Central Italy. We compared the results of the EPPO procedure with those of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (A-WRA) system. The two methods were also tested against the categorization performed at the national and local level by a panel of experts. Our results suggest that both methods accurately predict the invasiveness of species already present in the Tuscan Archipelago. However, the total numbers of species included in the highest risk categories by the two methods differed greatly, with the EPPO prioritization process including fewer species in the highest risk class. The two methods differed in the ability to correctly detect the invasive species, with the A-WRA method being more conservative, but at cost of more species in the highest risk class. Using Generalized Linear Models, we showed that both methods suffer from some degree of dependence from one or more of the tested explanatory variables (life span, year of first record). The results suggest that the choice of a risk assessment method should be driven by the main aim of the assessment, i.e., distinguishing between a more predictive tool (A-WRA) and a prioritization tool (EPP) for already introduced species.

Risk Assessment and Invasion Characteristics of Alien Plants in and Around the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

ABSTRACTTwo risk assessment protocols were adopted to assess the risks posed by alien plants that naturalized or non-naturalized in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (AGENC). In this study the Risk Assessment for Central Europe method revealed that more than two-thirds of the 19 naturalized and four-fifths of the 17 non-naturalized alien plants presented high or moderate risk, and all 36 alien plants were considered to be rejected for their potential agricultural and environmental risks under the Australian Weed Risk Assessment system. On the characteristics of plant invasions, more attention should be given to disturbed habitats rather than these relative natural or closed ecosystems, and also be prudent and careful of the alien plants that are introduced as useful plants from North or South America and unintentional introduction from Europe. Moreover, annuals needed special attention: three-quarters of the alien plants were annual species, only a few were biennial (8.3%), perennial (11.1%), liana and tree plants (2.8%). Plant invasions are not extremely serious in the AGENC, but there are several alien plants that have naturalized and spread themselves in the region. However, attention should be given in the future to predicting and preventing plant invasions in this fragile region.

Invasive weed risk assessment of three potential bioenergy fuel species.

Bioenergy crops are potential renewable sources of bio-diesel which have low emission profiles, environmentally beneficial, and capable of substituting petro-diesel. However, since most of them are introduced or are not native, it is essential to reduce the ecological and economic consequences of invasive pest introductions and the potential invasiveness of species not yet introduced. The Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) is a plant screening method and has the highest accuracy. The objective of this study was to conduct an agronomic and invasive weed risk assessment of three potential bioenergy fuel species namely: moringa (Moringa oliefera), physic nut (Jatropha curcas), and castor bean (Rincinus communis) for the Caribbean Islands. The WRA gave overall scores for moringa (0), jatropha (13) and castor oil (13). Based on their climatic adaptation and distribution, jatropha (5) and castor oil (5), the dispersal mechanism score was high (5) for both of them. The study revealed that jatropha and castor bean should not be considered as bioenergy crops within the ecological limits of the study, and that moringa should be further evaluated as bioenergy crop against invasiveness, given its agronomic potential as a high yielding oil crop. Key words: Weed risk assessment, Moringa oliefera, Jatropha curcas, Rincinus communis, bioenergy plants.

Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops

Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

Species‐based risk assessments for biological invasions: advances and challenges

AbstractAimAn increasingly important component of invasive species management involves the formal assessment of risks associated with particular species becoming invasive and causing impact. We evaluated recent developments in risk assessment (RA) for alien species, with special emphasis on species‐based pre‐border assessments for intentional introductions. Our aim was to identify important advances and key challenges.LocationGlobal.MethodsA literature review was done to determine which approaches have been developed and fine‐tuned over the last two decades, which of these have worked best and which are most widely used. We identified priorities for improving our ability to assess risks.ResultsThe review is divided into sections on various types and foci of RAs: invasion stage, taxon, ecosystem, assessment method and impact type. RAs for plants are the most advanced, with the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (A‐WRA) being the most widely applied and tested protocol. Based on the history of the A‐WRA, we highlight advances that have been made in assessing risk of alien species for pre‐border control and identify remaining challenges.Main conclusionsCurrently available RAs have proven to be cost‐effective, but there is room for substantial improvement. Further work is needed to separate likelihood and consequence more explicitly, and provide better and more objective means for assessing risks of impact. Types and levels of uncertainty need to be more effectively incorporated. Advanced RA protocols are needed for taxa other than plants and vertebrates. The latest insights from research in invasion ecology need to be incorporated, and advances in other fields must also be taken into account.

Invasion status and risk assessment for Salvia tiliifolia, a recently recognised introduction to China

SummaryThis study corrected the misidentification of an alien species, Salvia tiliifolia, which had been incorrectly identified as S. dugesii (a synonym of S. melissodora) in China. The distribution of S. tiliifolia in China was surveyed and it was inferred that it was probably introduced into Kunming, Yunnan in the 1990s and then spread to adjacent counties of Yunnan and south‐western Sichuan Province. The Australian weed risk assessment (WRA) was used to evaluate its invasive status. To determine the validity of Australian WRA in China, another 25 exotics representing casual alien plants, naturalised plants and invasive plants were tested. The Australian WRA was validated as a legitimate approach in China. Salvia tiliifolia scored 14, falling into the category of invasive plants. While the distribution of S. tiliifolia is currently restricted to Yunnan and a small part of Sichuan and the species has not displayed an adverse impact on local environments yet, the WRA results indicated that the species was a high risk plant. It was recommended that local land managers should monitor this species and take measures to stop its continuing expansion or eradicate it if possible.

Testing the Australian Weed Risk Assessment with different estimates for invasiveness

The Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) has become an effective tool in predicting invasiveness of exotic plant species. In studies testing the WRA, exotic plant species are usually divided into major weeds, minor weeds and non-weeds. However, these divisions are qualitative, as the categories are assigned by experts. Many studies searching for plant traits that are indicative of plant invasiveness use quantitative estimates to measure invasiveness. We compared how quantitative and qualitative estimates of invasiveness may relate to WRA scores. As quantitative estimates we used regional frequency (spread), change in regional frequency and local dominance of naturalized exotic plant species in The Netherlands. To obtain a qualitative estimate we determined if the exotic plant species occurred on a black list in neighbouring regions. We related WRA scores of the exotic plant species to these qualitative and quantitative estimates of invasiveness. Our results reveal that the WRA predicted the qualitative (black list) estimate more accurately than the quantitative (dominance and spread) ones. The black list estimate matches with the overall impact of exotic species, which is assumed to incorporate regional spread, local dominance and noxiousness. Therefore, the WRA predicts the noxiousness component, but to a lesser extent the spatial components of impact of exotic species. On the other hand, studies that use regional spread and other quantitative estimates of invasiveness tend not to include the noxiousness component of impact. We propose that our analyses may also help to further solve the recent debate on whether or not performing research on exotic species.

Assessing the Invasion Risk ofEucalyptusin the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA). This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38Eucalyptustaxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

How robust is the Australian Weed Risk Assessment protocol? A test using pine invasions in the Northern and Southern hemispheres

The Australian Weed Risk Assessment protocol (WRA) is often considered the standard approach for pre-border screening of new plant introductions. Here we assess its robustness against three key criteria: ability to discriminate success or failure of species at three stages of the invasion process (introduction, naturalisation and spread); sensitivity to taxonomic range and target region; and dependence on knowledge of invasive behaviour elsewhere. We address these issues by retrospectively testing the WRA using pine (Pinus) introductions to New Zealand and Great Britain. For both regions we calculated WRA scores for 115 species, and classified all species according to whether they had been introduced, which of these had naturalised, and the extent of their naturalised distribution (spread). Using regression models, we assessed whether WRA scores could predict success at each stage. We repeated this procedure using WRA scores calculated without information on species naturalisation behaviour elsewhere. In both regions, the WRA could discriminate among species in the same genus at the introduction and naturalisation stages, but not at the spread stage. The outcome at the naturalisation stage depended on prior knowledge of naturalisation behaviour elsewhere. Without this information the WRA may be unable to distinguish among closely related species, and should be used cautiously where data on invasive behaviour elsewhere is lacking. Human selection played a strong role in the invasion process both through introducing pine species likely to naturalise in New Zealand and Great Britain in the first instance, and subsequent use of many of these species for forestry in the target regions.

Development and validation of a weed screening tool for the United States

The Australian weed risk assessment has been promoted as a simple and effective screening tool that can help prevent the entry of weeds and invasive plants into new areas. On average, the Australian model identifies major-invaders more accurately than it does non-invaders (90% vs. 70% accuracy). While this difference in performance emphasizes protection, the overall accuracy of the model will be determined by its performance with non-invaders because the frequency of invasive species among new plant introductions is relatively low. In this study, we develop a new weed risk assessment model for the entire United States that increases non-invader accuracy. The new screening tool uses two elements of risk, establishment/spread potential and impact potential, in a logistic regression model to evaluate the invasive/weedy potential of a species. We selected 204 non-invaders, minor-invad- ers, and major-invaders to develop and validate the new model, and compare its performance to the Australian model using the same set of species. Performing better than the Australian model, our new model accurately identified 94.1% of major-invaders and 97.1% of non-invaders, without committing any false positives or false negatives. The new secondary screening tool we developed reduced the number of species requiring secondary evaluation from 22 to 12%. We expect that the new weed risk assessment model should significantly enhance the United State's timeliness and accuracy in regulating potential weeds.

Risk assessment for invasiveness differs for aquatic and terrestrial plant species

Predictive tools for preventing introduction of new species with high probability of becoming invasive in the U.S. must effectively distinguish non-invasive from invasive species. The Australian Weed Risk Assessment system (WRA) has been demonstrated to meet this requirement for terrestrial vascular plants. However, this system weights aquatic plants heavily toward the conclusion of invasiveness. We evaluated the accuracy of the WRA for 149 non-native aquatic species in the U.S., of which 33 are major invaders, 32 are minor invaders and 84 are non-invaders. The WRA predicted that all of the major invaders would be invasive, but also predicted that 83% of the non-invaders would be invasive. Only 1% of the non-invaders were correctly identified and 16% needed further evaluation. The resulting overall accuracy was 33%, dominated by scores for invaders. While the overall accuracy increased to 57% when the points assigned to aquatic life forms were removed, 57% of the non-invaders required further evaluation rather than were identified as having low probability of naturalizing. Discrimination between non-invaders and invaders would require an increase in the threshold score from the standard of 6 for this system to 19. That higher threshold resulted in accurate identification of 89% of the non-invaders and over 75% of the major invaders. Either further testing for definition of the optimal threshold or a separate screening system will be necessary for accurately predicting which freshwater aquatic plants are high risks for becoming invasive.