Australian Share Market Research Articles

Incorporating financial market volatility to improve forecasts of directional changes in Australian share market returns

This study examines whether incorporating volatility improves the forecast of directional changes in the returns of Australia’s banking, industrial and resource sectors. This study first estimates a benchmark non-volatility logit regression model and assesses it against four estimated volatility logit models measured by mean absolute deviation, standard deviation, return squared (U2) and range. An out-of-sample prediction performance, assessed by Brier’s QPS statistic and hit ratio, confirms that volatility improves the prediction of directional changes of returns. A simple trading strategy is utilized to provide practical improvement in investors’ market timing decisions.

CEO pay-risk sensitivity, firm policies, and 2009 Australian tax reforms

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of chief executive officer (CEO) vega on firm policies in the Australian share market based on a panel data set drawn from the 137 Australian public firms for the period 2003-2012.Design/methodology/approachTo allow mutual causation between our variables, the authors use the two-stage least squares estimation method, controlling for firm fixed effects. The authors use the difference-in-differences model to test whether the 2009 Australian tax reforms may discourage high-vega CEOs to take value-enhancing risks.FindingsThe authors find the evidence that vega induces CEOs to adopt the riskier financial policy in the Australian capital market. This evidence is further supported by the negative association between vega and firm conservative activities including cash and hedging policies. Further, the result shows that the 2009 tax reforms reduce the CEOs’ willingness to engage in risky financial policy. This finding implies that regulators may restore the 2009 reforms’ “deferred tax point” back to its pre-2009 form.Originality/valueBased on the study’s results, firms should grant CEOs more out-of-the money options with a longer time to expiration to offset the 2009 tax reforms’ negative impact on the CEO’s incentive to take value-enhancing risks.

Asset pricing and downside risk in the Australian share market

ABSTRACTAs downside risk has been identified as a separate risk exposure to investors, we investigate whether downside beta and co-skewness exposure impact on the return to investors in Australian equities. Although considered as a developed market, the Australian Securities Exchange merits separate investigation, as it is small and concentrated on some sectors, when compared with the major developed markets. As realized returns are a proxy for expected returns, we separately examine conditional returns in upturn and downturn periods. We find that both downside risks are separately priced by investors, and that our results are unaffected by the inclusion of a range of company characteristics. We subsequently confirm that returns to each downside risk are not related. In robustness tests, we conclude that the return to downside risk cannot be explained by a size, a value, or a momentum premium. Although it also has explanatory power, the inclusion of a leverage factor also does not reduce the explanatory power of downside risk.

Do Index Futures Cause Spot Market Volatility? An Investigation of the Australian Resources Index

This paper applies GARCH models to ascertain the impact of index futures trading on the volatility of the spot market. Specifically, the research aims to determine whether the introduction of index futures trading increases or decreases the level of volatility within the underlying spot market. In addition, the research verifies the sensitivity of price to information as well as the impact the leverage effect may have on the degree and structure of volatility. As Australia is a commodity driven economy, resources constitute one of the largest economic sectors. Following from this, the daily closing price of the ASX 200 Resources Index for the period 2010 to 2016 was therefore used in the analysis. Given that 14 October 2013 was when the Australian Securities Exchange launched the ASX 200 Resources Index futures, investigating the volatility prior to and after this date is also a focus of the paper. The results of the study suggest that the introduction of index futures did not substantially increase the level of volatility in the spot market but found that there is an increase in sensitivity to historical information; and that a negative leverage effect exists within the Resources Index. Since the Australian share market operates within a dynamic financial landscape, the study adopts a framework that seeks to provide behavioural and macroeconomic explanations for the findings, where appropriate.

Using a Differential Evolutionary Algorithm to Test the Efficient Market Hypothesis

The proposition that a relatively new technology such as a differential evolutionary algorithm (DEA) can violate the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis is tested using daily data from the Australian share market from 2000 until 2008. An option trading strategy based on forecasts from a DEA is shown to perform better than a buy and hold strategy over parts of the sample space and, on average, over all of it. Speculators may make supernormal profits using new methodologies however such profits are unlikely to be sustained.

IPO returns, board composition and committee characteristics: some Australian evidence of signalling attributes

This study considers the association between corporate governance attributes and IPO return behaviour in the Australian share market. Strong, significant associations are reported between IPO initial returns and board size, board independence and leadership structure. The board size effect appears contextual and increases with larger entity size. Audit committee formation per se was not a discriminating factor but committee conformity with exchange guidelines was of marginal significance. Overall, the results are consistent with the premise that governance attributes can offer signals to investors concerning the likely effectiveness of management actions in serving shareholder interests and enhancing firm prospects.

A generalized skewness statistic for stationary ergodic martingale differences

We present a class of generalized skewness statistics depending on a parameter β > 0 and containing the usual skewness statistic when β = 3, but providing greater flexibility for modelling and testing skewness when β ≠ 3. The statistics’ suitability for financial applications is illustrated using a large data set from the Australian share market. Data is assumed to be observations on stationary ergodicmartingale differences with possibly leptokurtic marginals, rather than independent identically distributed samples. The statistics can be studentized for use in hypothesis testing. Proof is provided of their asymptotic distributions undermild assumptions. Rates of convergence and power of the tests against skewed alternatives are assessed using simulation.

The equity and efficiency of the Australian share market with respect to director trading

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent of directors breaching the reporting requirements of the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the Corporations Act in Australia. Further, it seeks to assess whether directors in Australia achieve abnormal returns from trades in their own companies.Design/methodology/approachUsing an event study approach on an Australian sample, abnormal returns for a range of situations were estimated.FindingsA total of 13 (seven) per cent of own‐company directors trades do not meet the ASX (Corporations Act) requirement of reporting within five (14) business days. Directors do achieve abnormal returns through trading in shares of their own companies. Ignoring transaction costs, outsiders can achieve abnormal returns by imitating directors' trades. Analysis of returns to directors after they trade but before they announce the trade to the market shows that directors are making small but statistically significant returns that are not available to the market. Analysis of returns to directors subsequent to the ASX reporting requirement up to the day the trade is reported shows that directors are making small but statistically significant returns that should be available to the market.Research limitations/implicationsFuture research should investigate the linkages between late reporting by directors and disadvantages to outside shareholders and the implementation of internal policies implemented to mitigate insider trading.Practical implicationsMarket participants should remain vigilant regarding the potential for late/non‐reporting of directors' trades.Originality/valueUncovering breaches of reporting regulations are particularly important given that directors tend to purchase (sell) shares when the price is low (high), thereby achieving abnormal returns.

The Equity and Efficiency of the Australian Share Market with Respect to Director Trading

Thirteen percent of own-company trades by directors do not meet the ASX requirement of reporting within 5 business days, while seven percent are not reported within 14 business days as required by the Corporations Act. Such breaches of reporting regulations are particularly important given that directors tend to purchase (sell) shares when the price is low (high), thereby achieving abnormal returns. These abnormal returns are highest for purchases in resource companies. Ignoring transaction costs outsiders can achieve abnormal returns by imitating directors' trades. Directors avoid small but statistically significant losses in the period between selling shares and these trades being reported to the market.

Australian Efforts to Promote Corporate Social Responsibility: Can Disclosure Alone Suffice?

The importance of encouraging corporations to act in socially responsible ways is increasingly apparent in a world where the effects of economic, environmental and social misbehavior are not felt only by local communities. Australian corporations, like those elsewhere in the world, have occasionally acted irresponsibly, as three recent examples amply attest. Fortunately, these actions have met with public criticism and community pressure for the corporations to rectify their actions, with some degree of success. Recent developments in Australia attempt to assure that those Australian corporations listed on the Australian share market will in the future more fully consider the social consequences of their actions and will implement strategies to avoid the risks which such actions would present. Required disclosure of corporate practices and the resultant reaction to them should mean that Australian corporations will meet evolving community expectations that they act in socially responsible ways.

Tax Effects on the Pricing of Australian Stock Index Futures

This paper estimates the impact of the debt tax shield, cash dividends and imputation tax credits on the prices of Australian stock index futures. Relative to futures payoffs, the cost of financing the set of shares of the underlying index provides a mild tax shield, cash dividends are incompletely valued and imputation credits are worth at least fifty percent of their face value. The values that investors place on cash dividends and tax credits implied by index futures prices are close to those estimated in ex-dividend date stock price drop-off studies of the Australian share market.

Tax Effects on the Pricing of Australian Stock Index Futures

This paper estimates the impact of the debt tax shield, cash dividends and imputation tax credits on the prices of Australian stock index futures. Relative to futures payoffs, the cost of financing the set of shares of the underlying index provides a mild tax shield, cash dividends are incompletely valued and imputation credits are worth at least fifty percent of their face value. The values that investors place on cash dividends and tax credits implied by index futures prices are close to those estimated in ex-dividend-date stock-price drop-off studies of the Australian share market.

Privatisation in New Zealand and Australia: an empirical analysis

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the long‐run performance of privatised initial public offerings (IPOs) and their effects on the New Zealand share market (NZSE) and the Australian share market (ASX).

GDP, Share Prices, and Share Returns: Australian and New Zealand Evidence

With the aim of predicting share market returns, many empirical studies have delved into how financial and macroeconomic variables can be used to forecast return variability. The aim of this paper is to examine whether the ratio of aggregate share price to GDP can capture the variation of future returns on the aggregate share market within Australia and New Zealand. Using quarterly and semi-annual data for the period 1991-2003 for New Zealand and 1982-2006 for Australia, this study finds that the ratio of share price to GDP indeed captures a significant amount of the variation of returns on the New Zealand share market as well as the Australian share market; however results for Australian data do vary, depending on the sample period. Results in this paper generally provide support for the theory behind previous papers, specifically that of Rangvid (2006).

Size, Changing Risk and Seasonality Effects in the Australian Share Market

The over-reaction hypothesis suggests that if investors over-react then a contrarian strategy of buying losers and selling winners, should earn significant abnormal returns. In an Australian study from 1980 to 1997 it is found that there is an inverse relationship between size and observed returns in the Australian market and that change in risk between the formation and test period is insignificant in terms of the over-reaction paradigm. Finally, it is shown that winner portfolios earn considerable returns in January whilst losers earn the bulk of their returns in the non-January months.

The Predictability of Management Forecast Error: A Study of Australian IPO Disclosures

Contemporaneous evidence of corporate revenue and profit forecasting error is provided in a different institutional context, Australian sharemarket initial public offerings. This article ex tends the literature on company forecast risk by incorporating new proxies for forecasting error (float motive, subscription price premium, range of activities and internationalisation) and by refining others. The study investigates the association between earnings forecast risk and conventional ex-ante uncertainty proxies used to explain IPO underpricing. Ex-ante and ex-post explanatory variables are distinguished and a forecast error prediction model is tested. The results show revenue forecast errors were smaller and less sensitive than those for profit. Strong associations are reported between forecast error and float motive, audit quality and unanticipated industry activity. The lin k between earnings forecast error and proxies for initial public offering underpricing is observed. Predictability was poor regarding individual company forecast error, but improved for portfolio average forecasting error (JEL D80, G14, M41, N27).

Share Ownership and Control in Listed Australian Companies

This paper examines the structure of share ownership and control in companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). A comparison is made with the structure of share ownership and control in companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The paper shows that the level of institutional share ownership and control has been increasing in Australia in recent decades. The paper explores the implications of this for securities regulation, corporate governance, and corporate performance. The empirical evidence presented in this paper demonstrates that large non-institutional shareholders are also prominent in the Australian share market. This too has several implications, especially in the areas of corporate governance, corporate performance, and takeovers regulation and practice, which are discussed.

Forecasting Ability But No Profitability: An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-Optimised Trading Rules

This paper evaluates the performance of several popular technical trading rules applied to the Australian share market. The optimal trading rule parameter values over the in-sample period of 4/1/82 to 31/12/89 are found using a genetic algorithm. These optimal rules are then evaluated in terms of their forecasting ability and economic profitability during the out-of-sample period from 2/1/90 to the 31/12/97. The results indicate that the optimal rules outperform the benchmark given by a risk-adjusted buy and hold strategy. The rules display some evidence of forecasting ability and profitability over the entire test period. But an examination of the results for the sub-periods indicates that the excess returns decline over time and are negative during the last couple of years. Also, once an adjustment for non-synchronous trading bias is made, the rules display very little, if any, evidence of profitability.

Technical trading system performance in the Australian share market: Some empirical evidence

This study incorporates Australian All Ordinaries Share Price Index time series data over the period 1987–1991, and firstly considers the ability of technical trading systems to generate returns greater than a Buy-Hold control. Secondly it aims to test for the weak-form efficiency of the Australian Share Market. Efficiency is considered in both the statistical context and in terms of the trading system's net returns. Statistical test results provide the Australian share market to be weak-form efficient. In confirmation of this result, none of the trading systems employed were able to earn a return greater to the Buy-Hold control strategy once transactions costs were taken into consideration.

The Semi‐Strong Efficiency of the Australian Share Market*

This paper tests the weak and semi‐strong forms of the Efficient‐Markets Hypothesis (EMH) using data on the Australian skate market in the 1980s. The tests are based on aggregate share price indexes and the semi‐strong efficiency tests use macroeconomic data The weak‐form tests examine the autocorrelation structure of share returns and test for unit roots in share prices. The data are found to be consistent with the EMH.