Australian Population-based Cohort Research Articles

Factors associated with housing stability for Aboriginal families in South Australia: a prospective cohort study

Stable, affordable and safe housing is a key determinant of health and wellbeing. Evidence from an Australian population-based cohort of 344 Aboriginal mothers and children aged 5-9 years shows that tenure type, financial difficulties and women’s experience of partner violence are key drivers to housing stability. Stable housing was defined as moving house ≤ two times in the previous five years. Women had higher odds of stable housing if they had not reported partner violence in the last year (Adj. OR = 2.2, 95%CI 1.1–4.3) and reported fewer financial difficulties (Adj. OR= 2.2, 95%CI 0.9–5.4). Women in private rental had lower odds of stable housing (Adj. OR = 0.4, 95%CI 0.2–0.7) compared to women in government subsidised rental housing. Understanding factors that support housing stability is crucial to ensure the best outcomes for young Aboriginal children and families at a critical period in the life course.

Investigating the association between work family conflict (WFC) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) in an Australian community-based cohort study.

Difficulties managing work and family demands are common and have been found to be associated with stress and poor mental health. However, very few studies have examined Work Family Conflict (WFC) in connection with diagnosable anxiety disorders (and none with Australian representative data). The current study investigated whether high WFC was significantly associated with a diagnosis of Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD) after controlling for a broad range of socio-demographic contextual factors, related psychosocial job, family and individual characteristics, and prior anxiety symptom history. Data was analysed from an Australian population-based community cohort - the Personality and Total Health (PATH) Through Life project. Eligible participants (N = 1159) were employed full-time or part-time, with data collected by both online questionnaire and face-to-face interview. Presence of Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD) in the past 12-months was diagnosed by the GAD module in the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) (based on DSM-IV criteria) and severe anxiety symptoms were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ) 7-item 'other anxiety' model. The findings consistently showed that those experiencing high WFC had higher odds of a GAD diagnosis (final adjusted model: CIDI: OR: 2.55, CI: 1.38-4.70) as well as clinical levels of anxiety symptoms (PHQ: OR:2.61, CI:1.44,4.72). This was the case after controlling for an extensive range of covariates. This is one of the first studies to show that WFC is associated with greater likelihood of GAD. The challenge of juggling both work and family can have far-reaching impacts - not just increasing distress broadly, but also potentially increasing the likelihood of clinically diagnosable anxiety.

Child Sexual Abuse Victimization Amongst Detained Adolescents and Incarcerated Young Adults: Findings from an Australian Population-Based Birth Cohort Study

ABSTRACT To guide prevention and intervention efforts, the prevalence and impact of child sexual abuse (CSA) victimization among detained and incarcerated populations requires further examination, particularly with consideration of multi-type maltreatment experiences and sex-based variations. This longitudinal population-based study explores these relationships in an Australian birth cohort comprising all individuals born in Queensland in 1983 and 1984 (n = 82,409; 48.68% female). Data include all notified and substantiated harm(s) from child protection services (0 to 17 years), and sentences to youth detention and/or adult incarceration between ages 10 and 30. Findings indicate greater prevalence of CSA amongst detained/incarcerated individuals compared to the general population but emphasize the impact of cooccurring maltreatment (particularly neglect) on the likelihood of custodial outcomes. Important sex-based differences were noted in the intersection of CSA victimization and detention/incarceration. Findings reinforce the need for trauma-informed practices when working with custodial populations, particularly females, and highlight opportunities for prevention of detention/incarceration in at-risk populations, in line with a broader public health approach to child protection.

Estimating Gender Differences in the Association between Cognitive Resilience and Mild Cognitive Impairment Incidence

Introduction: Recent evidence suggests that the influence of verbal intelligence and education on the onset of subjective cognitive decline may be modulated by gender, where education contributes less to cognitive resilience (CR) in women than in men. This study aimed to examine gender differences in the association between CR and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) incidence in an Australian population-based cohort. Methods: We included 1,806 participants who had completed at least the first two waves and up to four waves of assessments in the Personality and Total Health (PATH) Through Life study (baseline: 49% female, male = 62.5, SD = 1.5, age range = 60–66 years). CR proxies included measures of educational attainment, occupation skill, verbal intelligence, and leisure activity. Discrete-time survival analyses were conducted to examine gender differences in the association between CR proxies and MCI risk, adjusting for age and apolipoprotein E4 status. Results: Gender differences were only found in the association between occupation and MCI risk, where lower occupation skill was more strongly associated with higher risk in men than in women (odds ratio [OR] = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.07, 1.57]). In both genders, after adjusting for education and occupation, one SD increase in leisure activity was associated with lower MCI risk by 32% (OR = 0.76, 95% CI [0.65, 0.89]). Higher scores in verbal intelligence assessment were associated with reduced risk of MCI by 28% (OR = 0.78, 95% CI [0.69, 0.89]). Conclusion: Occupational experience may contribute to CR differently between genders. Life course cognitive engagement and verbal intelligence may be more protective against MCI than education and occupation for both men and women.

WCN24-2681 Sex differnces in relative cancer survival in people with and without kidney failure; an Australian and New Zealand population-based cohort study, 1980-2019

WCN24-2681 Sex differnces in relative cancer survival in people with and without kidney failure; an Australian and New Zealand population-based cohort study, 1980-2019

Five-minute Apgar score and risk of neonatal mortality, severe neurological morbidity and severe non-neurological morbidity in term infants – an Australian population-based cohort study

The aim of this study was to ascertain risks of neonatal mortality, severe neurological morbidity and severe non-neurological morbidity related to the 5-min Apgar score in early term (37+0-38+6 weeks), full term (39+0-40+6 weeks), late term (41+0-41+6 weeks), and post term (≥42+0 weeks) infants. This was a retrospective cohort study of 941,221 term singleton births between 2000 and 2018 in Queensland, Australia. Apgar scores at 5-min were categorized into five groups: Apgar 0 or 1, 2 or 3, 4-6, 7 or 8 and 9 or 10. Gestational age was stratified into 4 groups: Early term, full term, late term and post term. Three specific neonatal study outcomes were considered: 1) Neonatal mortality 2) Severe neurological morbidity and 3) Severe non-neurological morbidity. Poisson multivariable regression models were used to determine relative risk ratios for the effect of gestational age and Apgar scores on these severe neonatal outcomes. We hypothesized that a low Apgar score of <4 was significantly associated with increased risks of neonatal mortality, severe neurological morbidity and severe non-neurological morbidity. Of the study cohort, 0.04% (345/941,221) were neonatal deaths, 0.70% (6627/941,221) were infants with severe neurological morbidity and 4.3% (40,693/941,221) had severe non-neurological morbidity. Infants with Apgar score <4 were more likely to birth at late term and post term gestations and have birthweights <3rd and <10th percentiles. The adjusted relative risk ratios (aRRR) for neonatal mortality and severe neurological morbidity were highest in the Apgar 0 or 1 cohort. For infants in the Apgar 0 or 1 group, neonatal mortality increased incrementally with advancing term gestation: early term (aRRR 860.16, 95% CI 560.96, 1318.94, p<0.001); full term (aRRR 1835.77, 95% CI 1279.48, 2633.91, p<0.001); late term (aRRR 1693.61, 95% CI 859.65, 3336.6, p<0.001) and post term (aRRR 2231.59, 95% CI 272.23, 18293.07, p<0.001) whilst severe neurological morbidity decreased as gestation progressed: early term (aRRR 158.48, 95% CI 118.74, 211.51, p<0.001); full term (aRRR 112.99, 95% CI 90.56, 140.98, p<0.001); late term (aRRR 87.94, 95% CI 67.09, 115.27, p<0.001) and post term (aRRR 52.07, 95% CI 15.17, 178.70, p<0.001). Severe non-neurological morbidity was greatest in the full term, Apgar 2-3 cohort (aRRR 7.36, 95% CI 6.2, 8.74, p<0.001). A 5-min Apgar score of <4 was prognostic of neonatal mortality, severe neurological morbidity, and severe non-neurological morbidity in infants born >37 weeks' gestation with the risk greatest in the early term cohort. National Health and Medical Research Council and Mater Foundation.

15-year incidence of driving cessation and associated risk factors: The Blue Mountains Eye Study.

To report the 15-year incidence of driving cessation and its associated vision-related risk factors in an older Australian population-based cohort. 15-year data from a sample of 2379 participants who indicated that they were driving at baseline from The Blue Mountains Eye Study was analysed. Questions about driving cessation was asked at all four visits and was recorded as a binary response (Yes/No). Clinical vision examinations were performed at each visit to determine presenting and best-corrected visual acuity and any incident eye diseases (Yes/No). The cumulative 15-year incidence of driving cessation was calculated using interval-censored data progression-free survival analyses. Age- and sex-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted interval-censored Cox proportional hazard models were used to report the hazard ratios (HRs) for associations of baseline and incident vision status with driving cessation. The 15-year cumulative incidence of driving cessation amongst the 2379 participants was 20.7%, with women more likely to cease driving than men (p=0.0005). Cataract (HR 1.98 (95% confidence interval(Cl) 1.45-2.71)) and age-related macular degeneration (HR 1.85 (95%Cl 1.37-2.50)) were associated with increased risk of driving cessation whilst presenting and best-corrected visual acuity in the better eye were protective against cessation (presenting: HR 0.96 (95%Cl 0.95-0.98); best-corrected: HR 0.93 (95%Cl 0.91-0.95)) in age- and sex-adjusted models, with these factors remaining independently associated in the multivariable-adjusted models. Cumulative incidence of driving cessation increased with older age and was higher in females. Cataract and age-related macular degeneration were independently associated with cessation, whilst better visual acuity at baseline helped prolong driving.

Characterization of Puberty in an Australian Population-Based Cohort Study

PurposeCurrent knowledge of the characteristics of puberty beyond age at menarche and thelarche is limited, particularly within population-based cohorts. Secular trends and concerns of the health effects of early puberty reinforce the value of contemporary studies characterizing the timing, tempo, duration, and synchronicity of puberty. MethodsThe Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study is a unique Australian cohort of individuals followed annually from late childhood to late adolescence, with up to eight assessments of pubertal stage from 9 to 19 years of age (N = 1,183; 636 females). At each assessment, females reported their Tanner Stage of breast and pubic hair development, while males reported on genital/pubic hair development. Nonlinear mixed-effects models characterized pubertal trajectories and were used to derive each individual’s estimates of timing, tempo, and synchronicity. Parametric survival models were used to estimate the overall duration of puberty. ResultsTiming of mid-puberty (Tanner Stage 3) ranged from 12.5 to 13.5 years, with females developing approximately 6 months before males. Pubertal tempo (at mid-puberty) was similar across sex (between half and one Tanner Stage per year), but the overall duration of puberty was slightly shorter in males. Most females exhibited asynchronous changes of breast and pubic hair development. DiscussionEstimates of pubertal timing and tempo are consistent with reports of cohorts from two or more decades ago, suggesting stabilization of certain pubertal characteristics in predominantly White populations. However, our understanding of the duration of puberty and individual differences in pubertal characteristics (e.g., synchronicity of physical changes) remains limited.

Pain and its interference with daily living in relation to cancer: a comparative population-based study of 16,053 cancer survivors and 106,345 people without cancer

BackgroundPain is a common, debilitating, and feared symptom, including among cancer survivors. However, large-scale population-based evidence on pain and its impact in cancer survivors is limited. We quantified the prevalence of pain in community-dwelling people with and without cancer, and its relation to physical functioning, psychological distress, and quality of life (QoL).MethodsQuestionnaire data from participants in the 45 and Up Study (Wave 2, n = 122,398, 2012–2015, mean age = 60.8 years), an Australian population-based cohort study, were linked to cancer registration data to ascertain prior cancer diagnoses. Modified Poisson regression estimated age- and sex-adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) for bodily pain and pain sufficient to interfere with daily activities (high-impact pain) in people with versus without cancer, for 13 cancer types, overall and according to clinical, personal, and health characteristics. The relation of high-impact pain to physical and mental health outcomes was quantified in people with and without cancer.ResultsOverall, 34.9% (5,436/15,570) of cancer survivors and 31.3% (32,471/103,604) of participants without cancer reported bodily pain (PR = 1.07 [95% CI = 1.05–1.10]), and 15.9% (2,468/15,550) versus 13.1% (13,573/103,623), respectively, reported high-impact pain (PR = 1.13 [1.09–1.18]). Pain was greater with more recent cancer diagnosis, more advanced disease, and recent cancer treatment. High-impact pain varied by cancer type; compared to cancer-free participants, PRs were: 2.23 (1.71–2.90) for multiple myeloma; 1.87 (1.53–2.29) for lung cancer; 1.06 (0.98–1.16) for breast cancer; 1.05 (0.94–1.17) for colorectal cancer; 1.04 (0.96–1.13) for prostate cancer; and 1.02 (0.92–1.12) for melanoma. Regardless of cancer diagnosis, high-impact pain was strongly related to impaired physical functioning, psychological distress, and reduced QoL.ConclusionsPain is common, interfering with daily life in around one-in-eight older community-dwelling participants. Pain was elevated overall in cancer survivors, particularly for certain cancer types, around diagnosis and treatment, and with advanced disease. However, pain was comparable to population levels for many common cancers, including breast, prostate and colorectal cancer, and melanoma.

Infant and preschool attachment, continuity and relationship to caregiving sensitivity: findings from a new population-based Australian cohort.

Here, we report new prevalence and temporal stability data for child attachment and parental caregiving behaviour, from infancy (1 year) to preschool (4 years). Attachment (SSP) and caregiving data (MBQS) were from observations of parents and their infants and preschoolers, who represent the third generation of participants within an Australian longitudinal cohort. At 1 year (n = 314 dyads) and at 4 years (n = 368 dyads), proportions assessed secure were 59% and 71%, respectively. Proportions assessed avoidant were 15% and 11%; ambivalent 9% and 6%, and disorganised 17% and 12%, at 1 and 4 years. Continuity of attachment pattern was highest for the infant secure group. Of dyads initially classified disorganised in infancy, 36% remained so at the preschool assessment. Attachment and caregiving continuities across the infancy-preschool period were highest for the stable secure attachment group and lowest for the stable insecure attachment group. Loss of secure attachment to mother by age 4 years correlated with decreased maternal caregiving sensitivity, and acquisition of secure status by age 4 was associated with increased maternal sensitivity. We found no difference in caregiving sensitivity scores for mothers and fathers for female and male preschool children. The contemporary infant and preschool attachment proportions we report here closely mirror the patterns of those reported in prior decades, with an inclination towards secure base relationships. Our findings alert practitioners anew to the responsiveness of early attachment status to change in caregiving responsiveness and support ongoing investment in early identification of disorganised attachment.

Newcastle 1000 (NEW1000) Study: an Australian population-based prospective pregnancy cohort study design and protocol

IntroductionMultiple cohort studies have been established to investigate the impact of early life factors on development and health outcomes. In Australia the majority of these studies were established more than...

Informal Caregiving Provision for Disabled or Elderly in the Families and Work Productivity: Evidence from 11 Waves of an Australian Population-Based Cohort.

Informal carers are family members, friends or neighbours who care for persons in need. In 2018, aroundone in ten Australians offered some informal care, most of which was unpaid. It is essential to comprehend how informal caregivers' productivity at work is affected by their caregiving responsibilities. We examine the association between informal caregiving and productivity loss in Australia. We utilised 11 waves of data drawn from theHousehold, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia(HILDA) survey. Longitudinal random-effects logistic regression and random-effects Poisson regression techniques were used to assess the between-person differences in the association between informal caregiving and productivity loss (absenteeism, presenteeism and working hour tension). The results suggest informal caregiving is associated with a higher rate of absenteeism, presenteeism and working hour tension. We reveal that absence/leave rates at work are greater for those with lighter, moderate and intensive care responsibilities than those without caregiving responsibilities, given other covariates reference categories remain constant. Our findings also indicate that workers with intensive, moderate, and light caregiving responsibilities have considerably higher rates of working hour tension than their peers without caregiving commitments if other covariate reference categories are held constant. The result further shows that, on average, an individual with lighter, moderate and intensive caregiving roles had incurred AUD 276.13, AUD 246.81, and AUD 1927.16, respectively, in absenteeism costs annually compared with their counterparts without caregiving duties. Our study reveals that working-age caregivers experience greater absenteeism, presenteeism and working hour tension. Adverse effects of informal caregiving are required to perform the cost effectiveness of an intervention given to caregivers to improve carer and patient health. Our findings will assist health technology assessment (HTA) practitioners in performing an economic evaluation of interventions given to caregivers by providing the indirect cost (productivity loss) of caregiving.

Prevalence and Persistence of Prescription Opioid Use Following Hospital Discharge After Childbirth: An Australian Population-Based Cohort Study.

Opioid analgesics are used for acute postpartum pain relief but carry risks, including persistent long-term opioid use. Our primary objective was to estimate the prevalence of persistent use following hospital discharge after childbirth. We conducted a population-based cohort study of women discharged from public or private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia, between 2012 and 2018 following vaginal birth (VB) or cesarean delivery (CD). We used linked hospitalization and medicine dispensing data to calculate the prevalence of opioid use within 14 days of hospital discharge for childbirth using an external estimate of the total number of hospital admissions for childbirth per year as the denominator. Among women dispensed an opioid postdischarge, we estimated the prevalence of persistent use defined as ≥3 dispensings between 30- and 365-days postdischarge. To calculate the odds of persistent opioid use, we performed a series of logistic regressions each including a single characteristic of interest. Included characteristics were maternal and birth characteristics, maternal medical conditions, prior use of certain medicines, and the initial opioid dispensed following discharge for childbirth. The final cohort comprised of 38,832 women who were dispensed an opioid in the 14 days following discharge after childbirth. Between 2012 and 2018, the prevalence of opioid use was increased following CD (public hospital 16.6%-21.0%; private hospital 9.8%-19.5%) compared with VB (public hospital 1.5%-1.5%; private hospital 1.2%-1.4%) and was higher following discharge from public hospitals compared with private. The most commonly dispensed opioids following discharge for childbirth were oxycodone (44.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 44.3-45.3), codeine (42.1%; 95% CI, 41.6-42.6), and tramadol (12.9%; 95% CI, 12.6-13.2). Among women dispensed an opioid, the prevalence of persistent opioid use was 5.4% (95% CI, 5.1-5.6). This prevalence was 11.4% (95% CI, 10.5-12.3) following a VB as compared with 4.3% (95% CI, 4.1-4.6) among those who underwent a CD ( P < .001). Characteristics associated with persistent opioid use included smoking during pregnancy, age <25 years, living in remote areas, discharged from a public hospital, history of opioid use disorder, other substance use disorder, mental health diagnosis, or prior use of prescription opioids, nonopioid analgesics, or benzodiazepines. The results of this cohort study indicate that Australian women have a higher prevalence of opioid use following CD compared to VB. One in 19 women dispensed an opioid postdischarge used opioids persistently. Careful monitoring of opioid therapy following childbirth is warranted, particularly among women with characteristics we identified as high risk for persistent opioid use.

The association between intrapartum interventions and immediate and ongoing breastfeeding outcomes: an Australian retrospective population-based cohort study

BackgroundThe use of intrapartum interventions is becoming increasingly common globally. Interventions during birth, including caesarean section (CS), epidural analgesia and synthetic oxytocin infusion, can be important in optimizing obstetric care, but have the potential to impact breastfeeding. This study aimed to identify whether women who have certain intrapartum interventions have greater odds of unfavourable breastfeeding outcomes, both the immediate post-partum period and in the months after birth.MethodsThis was a population-based cohort study of singleton livebirths at ≥37 weeks’ gestation between 2010 and 2018 in Victoria, Australia using routinely-collected state-wide data from the Victorian Perinatal Data Collection (VPDC) and the Child Development Information System (CDIS). The interventions included were pre-labour CS, in-labour CS, epidural analgesia, and synthetic oxytocin infusion (augmentation and/or induction of labour). Outcomes were formula supplementation in hospital, method of last feed before hospital discharge and breastfeeding status at 3-months and 6-months. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for potential confounders were employed.ResultsIn total, 599,191 women initiated breastfeeding. In-labour CS (aOR 1.96, 95%CI 1.93,1.99), pre-labour CS (aOR 1.75, 95%CI 1.72,1.77), epidural analgesia (aOR 1.45, 95%CI 1.43,1.47) and synthetic oxytocin infusion (aOR 1.24, 95%CI 1.22,1.26) increased the odds of formula supplementation in hospital. Long-term breastfeeding data was available for 105,599 infants. In-labour CS (aOR 0.79, 95%CI 0.76,0.83), pre-labour CS (aOR 0.73, 95%CI 0.71,0.76), epidural analgesia (aOR 0.77, 95%CI 0.75,0.80) and synthetic oxytocin infusion (aOR 0.89, 95%CI 0.86–0.92) decreased the odds of exclusive breastfeeding at 3-months post-partum, which was similar at 6-months. There was a dose-response effect between number of interventions received and odds of each unfavourable breastfeeding outcome.ConclusionCommon intrapartum interventions are associated with less favourable breastfeeding outcomes, both in hospital and in the months after birth. This confirms the importance of only undertaking interventions when necessary. When interventions are used intrapartum, an assessment and identification of women at increased risk of early discontinuation of breastfeeding has to be performed. Targeted breastfeeding support for women who have intrapartum interventions, when they wish to breastfeed, is important.

The Experience of 3D Total-Body Photography to Monitor Nevi: Results From an Australian General Population-Based Cohort Study.

Digital 3D total-body photography of the skin surface is an emerging imaging modality that can facilitate the identification of new and changing nevi. We aimed to describe the experiences of study participants drawn from the general population who were provided 3D total-body photography and dermoscopy for the monitoring of nevi. A population-based prospective study of adults aged 20-70 years from South East Queensland, Australia was conducted. Participants underwent 3D total-body photography and dermoscopy every 6 months over a 3-year period. Participants were asked to provide closed and open-ended feedback on their 3D total-body photography and dermoscopy experience (eg, comfort, trust, intended future use, and willingness to pay) at the halfway study time point (18 months) and final study time point (36 months). We assessed changes in participants' reported experience of 3D total-body photography, and patient characteristics associated with patient experience at the end of the study (36 months) were analyzed. A total of 149 participants completed the surveys at both the 18- and 36-month time points (median age 55, range 23-70 years; n=94, 63.1% were male). At the 18-month time point, most participants (n=103, 69.1%) stated they completely trusted 3D total-body imaging for the diagnosis and monitoring of their nevi, and this did not change at the 36-month (n=104, 69.8%) time point. The majority of participants reported that they were very comfortable or comfortable with the technology at both the 18- (n=138, 92.6%) and 36-month (n=140, 94%) time points, respectively; albeit, the number of participants reporting that they were very comfortable reduced significantly between the 18- and 36-month time points, from 71.1% (n=106) to 61.1% (n=91; P=.01). Almost all participants (n=140, 94%) would consider using this technology if it were to become commercially available, and this did not change during the two study time points. Half of the participants (n=74) cited barriers to participating in 3D total-body photography, including trust in the ability of this technology to detect and monitor suspicious lesions, digital privacy, cost, and travel requirements. The majority of participants expressed positive attitudes toward 3D total-body photography for the monitoring of their moles. Half of the participants identified potential barriers to uptake.

No clear associations between subjective memory concerns and subsequent change in cognitive function: the PATH through life study

The literature on subjective memory concerns (SMC) as a predictor for future cognitive decline is varied. Furthermore, recent research has pointed to additional complexity arising from variability in the experience of SMC themselves (i.e. whether they are remitting or sustained over time). We investigated the associations between SMC and objectively measured cognition in an Australian population-based cohort. Four waves (4-year intervals between waves) of data from 1236 participants (aged 62.4 ± 1.5 years, 53% male) were used. We categorized participants as experiencing SMC, when they indicated that their memory problems might interfere with their day-to-day life and/or they had seen a doctor about their memory. SMC was categorized as “no” reported SMC, “remitting”, “new-onset” or “sustained” SMC. Cognitive assessment of immediate and delayed recall, working memory, psychomotor speed, attention and processing speed were assessed using a neuropsychological battery. Eighteen percent of participants were characterised as having SMC: 6% (77) “remitting”, 6% (77) “new-onset” and 6% (69) “sustained” SMC. There was no consistent evidence for an association between SMC and subsequent decline in cognition. However, SMC was associated with poorer performance on contemporaneous tasks of attention and processing speed compared to “no” SMC. Asking about SMC may indicate a current decline in cognitive function but, in this sample at least, did not indicate an increased risk of future decline.

A data driven approach to identify trajectories of prenatal alcohol consumption in an Australian population-based cohort of pregnant women

Accurate information on dose, frequency and timing of maternal alcohol consumption is critically important when investigating fetal risks from prenatal alcohol exposure. Identification of distinct alcohol use behaviours can also assist in developing directed public health messages about possible adverse child outcomes, including Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder. We aimed to determine group-based trajectories of time-specific, unit-level, alcohol consumption using data from 1458 pregnant women in the Asking Questions about Alcohol in Pregnancy (AQUA) longitudinal study in Melbourne, Australia. Six alcohol consumption trajectories were identified incorporating four timepoints across gestation. Labels were assigned based on consumption in trimester one and whether alcohol use was continued throughout pregnancy: abstained (33.8%); low discontinued (trimester one) (14.4%); moderate discontinued (11.7%); low sustained (13.0%); moderate sustained (23.5%); and high sustained (3.6%). Median weekly consumption in trimester one ranged from 3 g (low discontinued) to 184 g of absolute alcohol (high sustained). Alcohol use after pregnancy recognition decreased dramatically for all sustained drinking trajectories, indicating some awareness of risk to the unborn child. Further, specific maternal characteristics were associated with different trajectories, which may inform targeted health promotion aimed at reducing alcohol use in pregnancy.

Web-Based Skin Cancer Assessment and Classification Using Machine Learning and Mobile Computerized Adaptive Testing in a Rasch Model: Development Study.

BackgroundWeb-based computerized adaptive testing (CAT) implementation of the skin cancer (SC) risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. However, the CAT of SC classification has not been reported in academics thus far.ObjectiveWe aim to build a CAT-based model using machine learning to develop an app for automatic classification of SC to help patients assess the risk at an early stage.MethodsWe extracted data from a population-based Australian cohort study of SC risk (N=43,794) using the Rasch simulation scheme. All 30 feature items were calibrated using the Rasch partial credit model. A total of 1000 cases following a normal distribution (mean 0, SD 1) based on the item and threshold difficulties were simulated using three techniques of machine learning—naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, and logistic regression—to compare the model accuracy in training and testing data sets with a proportion of 70:30, where the former was used to predict the latter. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]), and CIs along with the accuracy and precision across the proposed models for comparison. An app that classifies the SC risk of the respondent was developed.ResultsWe observed that the 30-item k-nearest neighbors model yielded higher AUC values of 99% and 91% for the 700 training and 300 testing cases, respectively, than its 2 counterparts using the hold-out validation but had lower AUC values of 85% (95% CI 83%-87%) in the k-fold cross-validation and that an app that predicts SC classification for patients was successfully developed and demonstrated in this study.ConclusionsThe 30-item SC prediction model, combined with the Rasch web-based CAT, is recommended for classifying SC in patients. An app we developed to help patients self-assess SC risk at an early stage is required for application in the future.

Prior Cardiovascular Treatments-A Key Characteristic in Determining Medication Adherence After an Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Objective: To investigate long-term adherence to guideline-recommended cardioprotective medications following hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and identify characteristics associated with adherence. Methods: An Australian population-based cohort study was used to identify participants who had their first AMI between 2006 and 2014 and were alive after 12 months. Linked routinely collected hospital, and prescription medication claims data was used to study adherence over time. Predictors and rates of adherence to both lipid-lowering medication and renin-angiotensin system blockade at 12 months post-AMI was assessed. Results: 14,200 people (mean age 69.9 years, 38.7% female) were included in our analysis. At 12 months post-AMI, 29.5% (95% CI: 28.8–30.3%) of people were adherent to both classes of medication. Individuals receiving treatment with both lipid-lowering medication and renin-angiotensin system blockade during the 6 months prior to their AMI were over 9 times more likely to be adherent to both medications at 12 months post-AMI (66.2% 95% CI: 64.8–67.5%) compared to those with no prior medication use (treatment naïve) (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.4–7.9%). Prior cardiovascular treatment was the strongest predictor of long-term adherence even after adjusting for age, sex, education and income. Conclusions: Despite efforts to improve long-term medication adherence in patients who have experienced an acute coronary event, considerable gaps remain. Of particular concern are people who are commencing guideline-recommended cardioprotective medication at the time of their AMI. The relationship between prior cardiovascular treatments and post AMI adherence offers insight into the support needs for the patient. Health care intervention strategies, strengthened by enabling policies, are needed to provide support to patients through the initial months following their AMI.

Changing pattern of radiation therapy for bone metastases in an Australian population-based cohort of men with prostate cancer.

To evaluate the pattern of use of single-fraction conformal radiation therapy (SF-RT) and advanced radiation therapy techniques (ART), including stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), for management of bone metastases (BM) in a population-based cohort of Australian men with prostate cancer (PCa) PATIENT AND METHODS: We reviewed men with metastatic PCa who received RT for BM between 2012 and 2017 as captured in the statewide Victorian Radiotherapy Minimum Data Set (VRMDS). The primary outcomes were: proportion of RT courses using SF-RT and ART. The Cochrane-Armitage test for trend was used to evaluate the changing pattern of SF-RT and ART over time. Multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with the primary outcomes RESULTS: Of the 4,324 courses of palliative RT for BM, 767 (17.7%) were SF-RT, and 615 (14.2%) were ART. There was no evidence of change in SF-RT use over time (P-trend=0.13). In multivariate analyses, increasing age at RT, site of BM (rib, shoulder, pelvis, and extremities), patients' area of residence (regional and remote), and treatment in public and metropolitan centres were associated with increased likelihood of SF-RT use. There was marked increase in ART use from 0.2% in 2012 to 24% in 2017 (11% intensity modulated RT, 13% SBRT) (P-trend<0.001). In multivariate analyses, younger age at RT, site of BM (rib and pelvis), higher socioeconomic status, and treatment in private and metropolitan centres were associated with increased likelihood of ART use. SF-RT continues to be a clear minority of RT schedules employed in management of BM in PCa, and the adoption of SF-RT use should be encouraged in men with limited prognosis. There has been increasing use of ART, especially SBRT, for BM in PCa over time, and we expect this will continue to increase in the era of metastatic-directed treatment for PCa.