Australian Coast Research Articles

Taxonomic novelty emerges more frequently and independently of functional novelty in historical coral communities

Earth's ecological assemblages are rapidly being driven towards unprecedented, novel states. We know little about ecological novelty in our oceans, limiting our ability to detect, contextualise, and manage substantive anthropogenic change. This is especially true for novel states with altered functional compositions. Here, we provide a quantitative assessment of taxonomic and functional ecological novelty in historical coral communities across the east Australian coast, capturing changes in the composition of coral taxa and their traits over the past 1500 years. Taxonomically novel communities emerged more frequently and often unaccompanied by substantial trait compositional change while functional novelty was commonly observed alongside significant genus turnover. Novel coral communities themselves were rare, context‐dependent, and often associated with transitions in dominant genera. Our preliminary trait‐based community classifications complement classical taxonomic methods to uncover a history of ecological change in east Australian coral communities, helping provide important context for their present states and inform future responses under ongoing and intensifying human‐driven change.

Mishaps in the Land van Eendracht: Exploring the Cause of Zuytdorp’s Wrecking

AbstractZuytdorp is one of four known Dutch East India Company shipwrecks off the western Australian coast. Believed to have foundered in the fall of 1712, its wreck site was located in 1927 on a remote stretch of the central western Australian coast. Since its identification in 1958, the site has been investigated during several archaeological expeditions. The cause of Zuytdorp’s wrecking, however, has never been properly assessed. Some researchers assume the ship crashed into shore due to an inaccurate longitude determination. Others believe the ship reached the Australian coastline safely and foundered due to a storm or other mishap. This study will use various lines of evidence to answer the question of how Zuytdorp wrecked. These include an assessment of contemporary cartographic and navigational knowledge, charts that would have been available on the vessel, coastal visibility, and signs that ships were nearing land as found in contemporary ship logs. It will be shown that Zuytdorp’s officers had access to the necessary cartographic information in order to navigate the Indian Ocean and Western Australian coastline, that there were numerous warning signs the vessel was nearing the coast and various measures taken to avoid a collision, and that meteorological conditions at the wreck site likely drove the ship ashore. Through a thorough analysis of these lines of evidence, it will be demonstrated that a sudden and unexpected encounter with the shore is an unlikely scenario. Instead, Zuytdorp could have reached the Australian coastline intentionally and most likely wrecked due to a storm.

Maxent modelling reveals suitable habitat remains unchanged for Carcinus maenas in Australia

ABSTRACT This study assesses the habitat suitability of the invasive green crab, Carcinus maenas, in Australia using MaxEnt modelling under current and future climate scenarios. The species has significant ecological impacts, displacing native species and altering habitats. Using 90 occurrence points from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the MaxEnt model shows high performance (Area Under the Curve value of 0.99), indicating reliable predictions. Currently, the green crab's habitat suitability along the Australian coast ranges from high to medium in Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia and low in Western Australia and South Queensland. Future projections suggest a decrease in suitable habitats, confined to Tasmania, Victoria, Adelaide and New South Wales. These findings can guide the development of long-term management and conservation plans for C. maenas, with an emphasis on areas with consistent habitat suitability. Additionally, further field and laboratory experiments are recommended to understand the species’ tolerance to environmental changes. Recognising the ecological impact of C. maenas is crucial for informed decision-making to preserve Australia's ecosystems and ensure the sustainable coexistence of native species amidst invasive threats.

Faecal contamination determines bacterial assemblages over natural environmental parameters within intermittently opened and closed lagoons (ICOLLs) during high rainfall

Intermittently closed and opened lakes and lagoons (ICOLLs) provide important ecosystem services, including food provision and nutrient cycling. These ecosystems generally experience low watershed outflow, resulting in substantial fluctuations in physicochemical parameters that are often compounded by anthropogenic contamination, however the patterns in microbiology within these environments remains uncharacterised. Therefore, we aimed to determine how seasonal heterogeneity in the physicochemical parameters, in comparison to faecal contamination, alter the dynamics of bacterial communities inhabiting ICOLLs on the eastern Australian coast. To address these aims, we sampled four ICOLLs on a monthly basis for one year, using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to monitor patterns in bacterial diversity and qPCR-based methods to measure faecal contamination from humans (sewage), dogs, and birds. Additionally, we used qPCR to monitor patterns of a suite of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) including sulI, tetA, qnrS, dfrA1, and vanB. Differences in bacterial community composition were often associated with temporal shifts in salinity, temperature, pH, DO, and fDOM, but following periods of high rainfall, bacterial assemblages in two of four ICOLLs changed in direct response to sewage inputs. Within these ICOLLs, indicator taxa for stormwater identified using the 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing data, as well as markers for sewage and dog faeces, and levels of the antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) sulI, tetA, and dfrA1 were significantly more abundant after rainfall. Notably many of the stormwater indicator taxa were potential human pathogens including Arcobacter and Aeromonas hydrophilia, which also displayed significant correlations, albeit weak to moderate, with levels of the ARGs sulI, tetA, and dfrA1. This broad-scale shift in the nature of the bacterial community following rainfall will likely lead to a substantial, and perhaps detrimental, divergence in the ecosystem services provided by the bacterial assemblages within these ICOLLs. We conclude that following rainfall events, sewage was a principal driver of shifts in the microbiology of ICOLLs exposed to stormwater, while natural seasonal shifts in the physicochemical parameters controlled bacterial communities at other times. Increased occurrence of intense precipitation events is predicted as a ramification of climate change, which will lead to increased impacts of stormwater and sewage contamination on important ICOLL ecosystems in the future.

Impact of climate change on major floods flowing into the Georges River estuary, Australia

Coastal flooding induced by storm surges and heavy rainfall is one of the most frequent climate-related natural hazards along the southeast Australian coast, home to more than 55% of the Australian population. Flooding in this densely populated region is a threat to public safety, coastal infrastructure, ecological systems and the economy. Although climate change is expected to cause an increase in major floods, few studies have quantified the potential changes in flood severity. This study quantifies the changes in flood peak discharge flowing to the Georges River estuary in Australia due to climate-change. An event-based hydrological model, Watershed Bounded Network Model (WBNM), was used to predict flood discharge. This hydrological model was forced by rainfall data obtained from the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project version 1.5 (NARCliM1.5) for both historical and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. Model calibration for the floods of March 1978 and March 2022 achieved a general agreement between the predicted and observed hydrographs, with an overall average 14% error in the peak values, further demonstrating that the modelling approach is generally reliable in projections of flood severity. Using high resolution climate model projections, the present study observed an increase of 22% in the model ensemble average from historical conditions to the RCP8.5 scenario for the 20-year average recurrence interval (ARI) 24 h extreme rainfall. This heightened extreme rainfall consequently resulted in the changes in flood discharge with an average rise of 55%. This study provides specific assessment of climate-generated risks for densely-populated regions, especially those on Australian east coast. Global studies have suggested that extreme precipitation events will increase under climate change. This study supports and enhances these assertions by using high resolution downscaling to quantify the specific changes within a large catchment.

Rapid barrier estuary infill in a geologically-constrained setting: Aireys Inlet/Painkalac Creek, Victoria, Australia

The Holocene infill of an intermittently open-closed barrier estuary (Painkalac Creek/Aireys Inlet) was examined on the southern margins of Australia, through aerial LiDAR, coring, sedimentology, radiocarbon dating and pollen analysis. It is found that almost all the accommodation space within the estuary has been occupied, with a thick sequence (>9 m) of sediments being deposited rapidly soon after flooding by the sea. The rate of sedimentation was 4.8 mm/year which closely matches the rate of sea level rise (4.5 mm/year) during the 1200 year period that the estuary infilled, from around 8000–6800 years ago. The evidence of estuarine deposition above the elevation of the modern intertidal zone provides significant further evidence for the presence of the mid-Holocene highstand sea level in this relatively unstudied part of the Australian coast. The pattern of infill departs from the traditional barrier evolution models. The first phase of infill was likely tide dominated with subtidal sand shoals being found landward of a subtidal bedrock sill. Once a beach-barrier sequence formed, the estuary infilled in a more traditional manner, with lateral progradation of a flood tide delta and central mud basin infill. The barrier estuary of Painkalac Creek therefore has undergone a complex evolutionary history, characterised by a change in process dominance from classic tidal to wave-dominated form. Infill occurred in a keep-up (or fast catch-up) mode, with geological control occurring in regard to the presence of an intertidal bedrock sill at the mouth of the estuary.

A taste of youth: Seasonal changes in the diet of immature white sharks in eastern Australia

White sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) play a crucial ecological role, shaping ecosystems through direct predation and risk effects. On the east coast of Australia, immature white sharks are broadly distributed, inhabiting a wide range of habitats and ecosystems from temperate Tasmania to tropical North Queensland. Using stable isotopes and fatty acids of muscle and plasma, we examined the diet and habitat use of 136 immature white sharks (152–388 cm total length) captured on SMART drumlines on the East Australian coast. This facilitated the temporal assessment of white shark trophic ecology from a few weeks to approximately a year. Biochemistry of muscle samples showed that white sharks predominantly feed on low trophic level prey from coastal environments. A seasonal shift in diet was evident, with the increasing proportions of essential fatty acids in muscle tissues during spring and summer suggesting a greater consumption of high-nutrition preys during those months compared to autumn and winter. By combining stable isotope and fatty acid analysis, we gain a comprehensive understanding of immature white shark diet in eastern Australia. Our results confirm that white sharks are generalist predators that exhibit seasonal shifts in their diet. Their high use of coastal habitats reinforces the importance of these areas for foraging, which is crucial for growth and development during this critical life stage.

Sirenian genomes illuminate the evolution of fully aquatic species within the mammalian superorder afrotheria

Sirenians of the superorder Afrotheria were the first mammals to transition from land to water and are the only herbivorous marine mammals. Here, we generated a chromosome-level dugong (Dugong dugon) genome. A comparison of our assembly with other afrotherian genomes reveals possible molecular adaptations to aquatic life by sirenians, including a shift in daily activity patterns (circadian clock) and tolerance to a high-iodine plant diet mediated through changes in the iodide transporter NIS (SLC5A5) and its co-transporters. Functional in vitro assays confirm that sirenian amino acid substitutions alter the properties of the circadian clock protein PER2 and NIS. Sirenians show evidence of convergent regression of integumentary system (skin and its appendages) genes with cetaceans. Our analysis also uncovers gene losses that may be maladaptive in a modern environment, including a candidate gene (KCNK18) for sirenian cold stress syndrome likely lost during their evolutionary shift in daily activity patterns. Genomes from nine Australian locations and the functionally extinct Okinawan population confirm and date a genetic break ~10.7 thousand years ago on the Australian east coast and provide evidence of an associated ecotype, and highlight the need for whole-genome resequencing data from dugong populations worldwide for conservation and genetic management.

Predicting suitable habitats for foraging and migration in Eastern Indian Ocean pygmy blue whales from satellite tracking data

BackgroundAccurate predictions of animal occurrence in time and space are crucial for informing and implementing science-based management strategies for threatened species.MethodsWe compiled known, available satellite tracking data for pygmy blue whales in the Eastern Indian Ocean (n = 38), applied movement models to define low (foraging and reproduction) and high (migratory) move persistence underlying location estimates and matched these with environmental data. We then used machine learning models to identify the relationship between whale occurrence and environment, and predict foraging and migration habitat suitability in Australia and Southeast Asia.ResultsOur model predictions were validated by producing spatially varying accuracy metrics. We identified the shelf off the Bonney Coast, Great Australian Bight, and southern Western Australia as well as the slope off the Western Australian coast as suitable habitat for migration, with predicted foraging/reproduction suitable habitat in Southeast Asia region occurring on slope and in deep ocean waters. Suitable foraging habitat occurred primarily on slope and shelf break throughout most of Australia, with use of the continental shelf also occurring, predominanly in South West and Southern Australia. Depth of the water column (bathymetry) was consistently a top predictor of suitable habitat for most regions, however, dynamic environmental variables (sea surface temperature, surface height anomaly) influenced the probability of whale occurrence.ConclusionsOur results indicate suitable habitat is related to dynamic, localised oceanic processes that may occur at fine temporal scales or seasonally. An increase in the sample size of tagged whales is required to move towards developing more dynamic distribution models at seasonal and monthly temporal scales. Our validation metrics also indicated areas where further data collection is needed to improve model accuracy. This is of particular importance for pygmy blue whale management, since threats (e.g., shipping, underwater noise and artificial structures) from the offshore energy and shipping industries will persist or may increase with the onset of an offshore renewable energy sector in Australia.

Emergence of decadal linkage between Western Australian coast and Western–central tropical Pacific

The impact of interbasin linkage on the weather/climate and ecosystems is significantly broader and profounder than that of only appearing in an individual basin. Here, we reveal that a decadal linkage of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged between western Australian coast and western–central tropical Pacific since 1985, associated with continuous intensification of decadal variabilities (8–16 years). The rapid SST changes in both tropical Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool in association to greenhouse gases and volcanoes are emerging factors resulting in enhanced decadal co-variabilities between these two regions since 1985. These SST changes induce enhanced convection variability over the Maritime Continent, leading to stronger easterlies in the western–central tropical Pacific during the warm phase off western Australian coast. The above changes bring about cooling in the western–central tropical Pacific and strengthened Leeuwin Current and anomalous cyclonic wind off western Australian coast, and ultimately resulting in enhanced coupling between these two regions. Our results suggest that enhanced decadal interbasin connections can offer further understanding of decadal changes under future warmer conditions.

Regional Intraspecific Differences of Thermal Biology in a Marsupial Hibernator.

AbstractDuring periods of torpor, hibernators can reduce metabolic rate (MR) and body temperature (Tb) substantially. However, to avoid physiological dysfunction at low temperatures, they defend Tb at a critical minimum, often between ~0°C and 10°C via an increase in MR. Because thermoregulation during torpor requires extra energy, individuals with lower Tb's and thus minimal MR during torpor should be selected in colder climates. Such inter- and intraspecific variations occur in some placental mammals, but for the evolutionary separate marsupials, available information is scarce. Marsupial eastern pygmy possums (Cercartetus nanus; ~22 g body mass), widely distributed along the Australian southeastern coast including subtropical to alpine areas, were used to test the hypothesis that the defended Tb of torpid individuals is related to the climate of their habitat. Possums were captured from five regions, 1,515 km apart, with midwinter (July) minimum environmental temperatures (min Tenv's) ranging from -3.9°C to 6.6°C. Captive possums in deep torpor were slowly cooled with ambient temperature (Ta), while their MR was measured to determine the minimum torpor metabolic rate (TMR), the Ta at which their MR increased for thermoregulation (min Ta), and the corresponding minimum Tb (min Tb). Partial least squares regression analysis revealed that Ta and Tenv were the strongest explanatory variables for the min Tb. The min Tb and Ta were also correlated with latitude but not elevation of the capture sites. However, the best correlations were observed between the min Tenv and the min Tb and Ta for individuals experiencing min ; these individuals thermoconformed to min Ta's between -0.8°C and 3.7°C, and their min Tb ranged from 0.5°C to 6.0°C and was 0.5°C-2.6°C below the min Tenv at the capture site. In contrast, individuals experiencing a min Tenv of -3.9°C regulated Tb at or 4.5°C above the Tenv. The minimum TMR of all possums did not differ with Ta and thus did not differ among populations and was 2.6% of the basal MR. These data provide new evidence that thermal variables of marsupials are subject to regional intraspecific variation. It suggests that min Tb is a function of the min Tenv but only above 0°C, perhaps because the differential for torpid possums in the wild, at a min Tenv of -3.9°C, remains small enough to be compensated by a small increase in MR and does not require the physiological capability for a reduction of Tb below 0°C.

Marine bryozoan colonization of terrestrial biomineralized tissues: Taphonomic insights and forensic implications

AbstractThe taphonomy and diagenesis of bone and teeth recovered from any environments provide crucial information for forensic sciences and investigations. This leads to the estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI) and the postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) of the organism/s. Aquatic taxa can induce macroscopic and microscopic alterations in biomineralized tissues (e.g., grooves) or can colonize them by attachment (e.g., Bryozoa). Bryozoa are tiny invertebrates that form colonies in freshwater and saltwater. They can survive for years as suspension feeders in all climates. Most marine Bryozoa species have a biomineralized exoskeleton that can be preserved after their death. This research analyzes eight fragments of archeological elephant ivory with a known PMSI of 314 years, which were inhabited by three distinct bryozoan colonies. The variations in the preservation of the bryozoan exoskeletons and the overgrowth of different marine taxa reveal that one colony (lichenoporid cyclostomatid) was alive at the time of the ivory collection from the submerged archeological site while the two other colonies (cheilostomatid) had previously died at different times. The primary objective of this observation is to contribute to the understanding of the taphonomy of terrestrial mammalian biomineralized tissues recovered in marine environments. Additionally, the study discusses the potential forensic implications of this association, such as the evidence of marine submersion and the PMSI. A secondary objective is to present the Bryozoa colonies within a distinctive depositional context, considering that many bryozoan species of the Western Australian coast remain undescribed. The complexity of the Bryozoa ecobiology is also highlighted, with the need of further research (e.g., minimum time for colonization). Finally, this study highlights the urgency of multidisciplinary collaboration to advance aquatic forensic capabilities.

Faecal bacterial communities differ amongst discrete foraging populations of dugongs along the east Australian coast.

Gut bacterial communities play a vital role in a host's digestion and fermentation of complex carbohydrates, absorption of nutrients, and energy harvest/storage. Dugongs are obligate seagrass grazers with an expanded hindgut and associated microbiome. Here, we characterised and compared the faecal bacterial communities of dugongs from genetically distinct populations along the east coast of Australia, between subtropical Moreton Bay and tropical Cleveland Bay. Amplicon sequencing of fresh dugong faecal samples (n=47) revealed Firmicutes (62%) dominating the faecal bacterial communities across all populations. Several bacterial genera (Bacteroides, Clostridium sensu stricto 1, Blautia and Polaribacter) were detected in samples from all locations, suggesting their importance in seagrass digestion. Principal coordinate analysis showed the three southern-most dugong populations having different faecal bacterial community compositions from northern populations. The relative abundances of the genera Clostridium sensu stricto 13 and dgA-11 gut group were higher, but Bacteroides was lower, in the southern dugong populations, compared to the northern populations, suggesting potential adaptive changes associated with location. This study contributes to our knowledge of the faecal bacterial communities of dugongs inhabiting Australian coastal waters. Future studies of diet selection in relation to seagrass availability throughout the dugong's range will help to advance our understanding of the roles that seagrass species may play in affecting the dugong's faecal bacterial community composition.

Valuing and integrating soil roles in assessing the capital dimension of soil security: An Australian case study

The crucial role of soil in global food production and its multifaceted contributions to ecosystem services underscore the need for a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study presents a novel approach to soil evaluation by integrating the assessment of soil functions, services, and threats into a unified metric which quantifies the capital dimension which is termed "soil management capital". To achieve this, we focused on three key roles: a threat, evaluated by the pH regulation costs, factoring in different buffering capacities and liming/sulphuring treatments to attain an optimal reference pH, a function, representing soil's role as a reservoir and regulator of nutrients; and a service, considering available water holding capacity (AWC) for water security. Integrating these activities culminates in a soil capital metric, providing a comprehensive understanding of the soil's economic value in US$/ha units on a pixel-by-pixel basis across Australia. To achieve this, we analysed spatial information from the Soil and Landscape Grid of Australia (SLGA) with Google Earth Engine (GEE). Our study generated detailed maps illustrating pH regulation costs, OC, nutrients (N, P, K), and AWC across Australia. The integration of these roles revealed regions of large soil capital in the Australian eastern coast and Tasmania.

Isolation, small population size, and management influence inbreeding and reduced genetic variation in K’gari dingoes

Small island populations are vulnerable to genetic decline via demographic and environmental stochasticity. In the absence of immigration, founder effects, inbreeding and genetic drift are likely to contribute to local extinction risk. Management actions may also have a greater impact on small, closed populations. The demographic and social characteristics of a species can, however, delay the impact of threats. K’gari, a ~ 1 660 km2 island off the Australian east coast and UNESCO World Heritage Site (Fraser Island 1842–2023), supports an isolated population of approximately 70–200 dingoes that represent an ideal opportunity to explore the small island paradigm. To examine temporal and spatial patterns of genetic diversity in this population we analysed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data (72 454 SNPS) for 112 K’gari dingoes collected over a 25-year period (1996 to 2020). Genetic diversity was lower in K’gari dingoes than mainland dingoes at the earliest time point in our study and declined significantly following a management cull in 2001. We did not find any spatial genetic patterns on the island, suggesting high levels of genetic connectivity between socially discrete packs. This connectivity, combined with the social structure and behaviour of dingoes, may act in concert to buffer the population from the impacts of genetic drift in the short term. Nevertheless, a general decline in genetic variation via inbreeding and drift has occurred over the past 20 years which we suggest should be considered in any future management planning for the population. Monitoring patterns of genetic variation, together with a clearer understanding of the social ecology of K’gari dingoes, will aid in the development of measurable genetic targets set over ecologically meaningful timelines, and help ensure continued survival of this culturally important population.

New Tudivasum Rosenberg & Petit, 1987 (Mollusca: Vasidae) from Queensland and the first report of sinistralism in that genus

Five new Tudivasum species are described from Queensland, Australia. Currently, only Tudivasum armigerum (Adams, 1856) and Tudivasum rasilistoma (Abbott, 1959) are recognized from the east Australian Coast, and are of comparable in size to the new species. An additional species, Tudivasum kurtzi (Macpherson, 1964) from northwestern Australia is included in this study as it is also of comparable size to the new species described here, although it is not found in the same biogeographical area. A coastal species, Tudivasum annettae n. sp. is described from Shoal Point, Central Queensland, where it has been found on intertidal sand/mud flats and near shore reefs. Tudivasum barbaracollinsae n. sp. is described from the far northern region of Queensland off the Cairns coastal trawler grounds. Tudivasum glendae n sp. is described from the northern Queensland trawling grounds off Townsville. Tudivasum amandacantamessae n. sp. is described from the central Queensland trawler grounds off Bowen. Tudivasum variabilis n. sp. is taken from the southern Queensland trawler grounds off Yeppoon. The first example of a sinistral Tudivasum from Australia is also presented.

Species gain and loss per degree Celsius

With climate zones moving poleward, it is interesting to know how rapidly species are gained and lost along temperature gradients. For the Australian native vascular flora, observed climate envelopes for species distributions have here been calculated from data for occurrence at geographical locations. For each degree temperature increase along a continental temperature gradient, numbers of species crossing their cold boundary and hence added to the flora, and crossing their warm boundary and hence lost to the flora, were counted. These counts of gains and losses were expressed as percentages of the flora recorded as present at that temperature. We report results for the flora at > 700 mm rainfall pa along the Australian east coast, where higher rainfall is continuously distributed throughout the latitudinal range. Per °C mean annual temperature increase, 20 ± 11% (mean ± SD) of species were gained, and 14 ± 4% were lost, across the range 9–23°C. Many further questions arise. For example, which other continental floras might show faster or slower rates of species gain and loss along temperature gradients? Similarly, might species with particular traits show faster rates of turnover: for example, species with local dispersal such as those with diaspore morphologies adapted for ants, compared to those adapted for bird dispersal?

Modeled variations of tropical cyclone genesis potential during Marine Isotope Stage 3

To advance our understanding of the responses of tropical cyclones (TCs) to abrupt climate transitions, we investigate the variation of genesis potential and the underlying mechanisms during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) that is characterized by frequent millennial-scale oscillations, using a set of coupled model simulations. We illustrate that genesis potential mainly increases over the eastern North Pacific and South Pacific in the storm season during MIS 3 interstadial relative to preindustrial, whereas it decreases over the western North Pacific, North Atlantic, South Indian Ocean, and Australian coast. The relative importance of each genesis factor to genesis potential change varies across oceans. During the transition from warm interstadial to cold stadial induced by freshwater injection, TC genesis potential generally decreases in the Northern Hemisphere, while increases in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are associated with asymmetric variations of genesis factors between Northern and Southern Hemisphere, which are further tied to the adjustment of large-scale environmental factors in response to the weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Additionally, TC genesis potential exhibits a regional “overshoot” phenomenon when the freshwater injection is terminated, manifested by an increase over the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic and a decrease over the South Pacific, compared with the initial interstadial state. Our results may help improve our knowledge on past TC behaviors and shed lights on TC response to potential abrupt climate transitions in a warmer future.

Climate and human stressors on global penguin hotspots: Current assessments for future conservation.

As charismatic and iconic species, penguins can act as "ambassadors" or flagship species to promote the conservation of marine habitats in the Southern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, there is a lack of reliable, comprehensive, and systematic analysis aimed at compiling spatially explicit assessments of the multiple impacts that the world's 18 species of penguin are facing. We provide such an assessment by combining the available penguin occurrence information from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (>800,000 occurrences) with three main stressors: climate-driven environmental changes at sea, industrial fisheries, and human disturbances on land. Our analyses provide a quantitative assessment of how these impacts are unevenly distributed spatially within species' distribution ranges. Consequently, contrasting pressures are expected among species, and populations within species. The areas coinciding with the greatest impacts for penguins are the coast of Perú, the Patagonian Shelf, the Benguela upwelling region, and the Australian and New Zealand coasts. When weighting these potential stressors with species-specific vulnerabilities, Humboldt (Spheniscus humboldti), African (Spheniscus demersus), and Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus) emerge as the species under the most pressure. Our approach explicitly differentiates between climate and human stressors, since the more achievable management of local anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fisheries and land-based threats) may provide a suitable means for facilitating cumulative impacts on penguins, especially where they may remain resilient to global processes such as climate change. Moreover, our study highlights some poorly represented species such as the Northern Rockhopper (Eudyptes moseleyi), Snares (Eudyptes robustus), and Erect-crested penguin (Eudyptes sclateri) that need internationally coordinated efforts for data acquisition and data sharing to understand their spatial distribution properly.

Marine heatwaves affect breeding, diet and population size but not body condition of a range-edge little penguin colony

Significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) developed along the Western Australian coast in 1999 and 2011. Despite ecosystem losses and the southwards occurrence of many tropical fish species during and after the extreme MHW in 2011, there have been few studies on the effects of this MHW on seabirds, and no biological impacts related to the 1999 MHW have been reported. Using data from 1986-2019, we investigated the impacts of these events on breeding outcomes, body condition, diet composition, population size and mortality of little penguins on Penguin Island, in the temperate waters off Western Australia. Breeding outcomes were negatively impacted by the MHWs but body condition was not. Diet composition changed after the MHW, with sandy sprat Hyperlophus vittatus, the penguins’ typical major prey component, replaced by scaly mackerel Sardinella lemuru, a tropical fish species. Using an open robust design analysis that accounts for imperfect capture probabilities and staggered annual arrival and departure dates, we found that the population decreased by 80% following the 2011 MHW. Finally, more penguins died from starvation or from novel protozoal parasitic infections in 2011 and 2012 that were potentially introduced with the changed diet. This research highlights that the temporal and spatial influence of MHWs on seabirds depends on several factors. Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of a prey species’ response can be very localised and have significant impacts on avian predators. There are no obvious ways to mediate climate effects, but perhaps measures taken to reduce any synergistic impacts on prey abundance, particularly during MHW events, could be effective.